Recession - How bad is it

TeddyTedson

I'm finding it really difficult to determine how bad a state the country really is in.
Some people (generally older in my experience) seem to be saying that recessions come and go and this is nothing new, and that things will start to pick up in the next few years.
Others are saying due to debt our country is ****ed for the next 15 years at the least, and probably longer and encouraging anyone with the option to get out now to do so.
I'm really clueless as to where we stand. All I know is I get paid minimum wage for part time work at what I used to do full time for decent money.
I've looked into leaving more regularly the further things have continued to deteriorate.
I'm 24 now and wondering am I just hanging on to threads at this stage for things to improve.
Nobody wants to be in the prime of their life and struggling to make a life of their own.
How do others feel about things?

Wolfe Tone

Ah shure it'll be grand.

TeddyTedson

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

Ah shure it'll be grand.

Mom?

KungPao

TeddyTedson wrote: »

I'm finding it really difficult to determine how bad a state the country really is in.
Some people (generally older in my experience) seem to be saying that recessions come and go and this is nothing new, and that things will start to pick up in the next few years.
Others are saying due to debt our country is ****ed for the next 15 years at the least, and probably longer and encouraging anyone with the option to get out now to do so.
I'm really clueless as to where we stand. All I know is I get paid minimum wage for part time work at what I used to do full time for decent money.
I've looked into leaving more regularly the further things have continued to deteriorate.
I'm 24 now and wondering am I just hanging on to threads at this stage for things to improve.
Nobody wants to be in the prime of their life and struggling to make a life of their own.
How do others feel about things?

I'd be inclined to agree with the others.

pragmatic1

Ted its very bad. In all seriousness, we're phucked for a few generations.

Wolfe Tone

TeddyTedson wrote: »

Mom?

Sorry Ted, keep searching.


Im 19 and in college, recession sucks, luckily I care little for money and have no responsibilities so Im sure it will all work out for me, it usually does.

jamesr123

Well a friend of mine runs a small little shop and even he is just about paying the bills, He certaintly isnt making money for himself for the last few months anyway. As for me i'm finding it hard to get work or anything to do really. I have no qualifications so I am gonna go to fas and do a couple basic courses just for somthing to do really.

2,000 jobs went today in one of the banks and they think there is more to come.. It doesnt look good atm:eek::eek: Wish they'd do somthing i'm tired of it all now

yosemite_sam

It's bad, and it is going to get a whole lot worse

bigdogbarking

jamesr123 wrote: »

... It doesnt look good atm:eek::eek: .....

lol.....ATM.....giggity giggity

Aoifey!

It won't last forever, it'll be okay, and then the whole thing will eventually go full circle and in a hundred years you'll see almost that exact same post on some high tech space moon star website (yes, I just threw random words together).


Wait, actually, YOU won;t see it, but it will be there!

TeddyTedson

yosemite_sam wrote: »

It's bad, and it is going to get a whole lot worse

Why though, the unemployment rate has been quite static for quite a while now. It's something like 13percent right, so 87percent of people are working.
When we default on our debt will the country not be able to focus on getting the 13percent into work.
During the boom it was even at 4percent, so it's only been a 9percent increase, still enough. But it the big problem all about the banks and our debt?

KungPao

jamesr123 wrote: »

Well a friend of mine runs a small little shop and even he is just about paying the bills, He certaintly isnt making money for himself for the last few months anyway. As for me i'm finding it hard to get work or anything to do really. I have no qualifications so I am gonna go to fas and do a couple basic courses just for somthing to do really.

2,000 jobs went today in one of the banks and they think there is more to come.. It doesnt look good atm:eek::eek: Wish they'd do somthing i'm tired of it all now

Sometimes my bank machine talks to me, you know, usually just pleasantries and chit-chat. But recently it said to me "How are you doing...in financial terms?"

^That was my reply^

F1ngers

Actually, it's not that bad for me.
Mortgage nearly paid off (four more repayments to go), nice job, pays well.
Nice little bonus in a couple of weeks.
I would have to say... what recession?
Happy days for me.:D:D:D

TeddyTedson

F1ngers wrote: »

Actually, it's not that bad for me.
Mortgage nearly paid off (four more repayments to go), nice job, pays well.
Nice little bonus in a couple of weeks.
I would have to say... what recession?
Happy days for me.:D:D:D

ah feck off:pac::D

jamesr123

F1ngers wrote: »

Actually, it's not that bad for me.
Mortgage nearly paid off (four more repayments to go), nice job, pays well.
Nice little bonus in a couple of weeks.
I would have to say... what recession?
Happy days for me.:D:D:D

I'm happy for you mate, atleast some people are doing ok

Wolfe Tone

F1ngers wrote: »

Actually, it's not that bad for me.
Mortgage nearly paid off (four more repayments to go), nice job, pays well.
Nice little bonus in a couple of weeks.
I would have to say... what recession?
Happy days for me.:D:D:D

Must be a banker!


:L

Kylo Ren

I had to sell my mexican midget rodeo business. I had a monopoly too

F1ngers

TeddyTedson wrote: »

ah feck off:pac::D

jamesr123 wrote: »

I'm happy for you mate, atleast some people are doing ok

Wasn't always easy, had a couple of rough months years ago...:D
Interest rates went through the roof...

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

Must be a banker!


:L

Should that not be a "w"?

CrazyRabbit

This isn't a recession. This is just normality returning after the boom periods. The boom just lasted long enough that many don't remember how bad it was before.

Offy

On a scale of 1-10 with 1 as very bad and 10 as very good Id give it a b+

yesno1234

TeddyTedson wrote: »

Why though, the unemployment rate has been quite static for quite a while now. It's something like 13percent right, so 87percent of people are working.
When we default on our debt will the country not be able to focus on getting the 13percent into work.
During the boom it was even at 4percent, so it's only been a 9percent increase, still enough. But it the big problem all about the banks and our debt?

You're not taking emmigration into account in that. If the people who had emmigrated stayed you would see that figure significantly higher.

EverEvolving

Depends what industry you are in really, if you haven't been let go yet, count yourself lucky. I was doing smashing until a year ago, well paid job etc, then they decided they could move most operations to Manila and everything else was moved to their HQ.

It made good business sense seeing as the company had been bought over and they had a HQ big enough to hold it all, and it would have happened whether there was a recession or not. Only real problem there is having another job to go to in a small town.

whatsamsn

Truth about recession (even life)

Only people at the bottom or those effected by recession will really see whats going on. All this "we are out of recession!" is bs words by people living in a bubble.

hinault

TeddyTedson wrote: »

I'm finding it really difficult to determine how bad a state the country really is in.
Some people (generally older in my experience) seem to be saying that recessions come and go and this is nothing new, and that things will start to pick up in the next few years.
Others are saying due to debt our country is ****ed for the next 15 years at the least, and probably longer and encouraging anyone with the option to get out now to do so.
I'm really clueless as to where we stand. All I know is I get paid minimum wage for part time work at what I used to do full time for decent money.
I've looked into leaving more regularly the further things have continued to deteriorate.
I'm 24 now and wondering am I just hanging on to threads at this stage for things to improve.
Nobody wants to be in the prime of their life and struggling to make a life of their own.
How do others feel about things?

Difficult to guage. I was in Dublin City Centre last Saturday night and the pubs and restaurants were all relatively busy. However the suburban pubs in the area where my folks live are dying a death (back in the recession filled 1980's these same pubs were packed).

My best friend owns a couple of businesses in Kilkenny City and he said that the footfall has crashed there since late 2010.

I think more places are struggling than prospering. And with the increase in interest rates to take effect in May 2011, along with more tax increases the pain can only increase unfortunately.

andrew

As far as recessions go, it's a bad one. But this 'we're fucked for generations stuff' seems a bit excessive. The Irish economy has come through some really, really crap times since independance, and it'll come through again.

orourkeda

TeddyTedson wrote: »

I'm finding it really difficult to determine how bad a state the country really is in. Some people (generally older in my experience) seem to be saying that recessions come and go and this is nothing new, and that things will start to pick up in the next few years.
Others are saying due to debt our country is ****ed for the next 15 years at the least, and probably longer and encouraging anyone with the option to get out now to do so.
I'm really clueless as to where we stand. All I know is I get paid minimum wage for part time work at what I used to do full time for decent money.
I've looked into leaving more regularly the further things have continued to deteriorate.
I'm 24 now and wondering am I just hanging on to threads at this stage for things to improve.
Nobody wants to be in the prime of their life and struggling to make a life of their own.
How do others feel about things?

We're f*cked

longshanks

KungPao wrote: »

Sometimes my bank machine talks to me, you know, usually just pleasantries and chit-chat. But recently it said to me "How are you doing...in financial terms?"

^That was my reply^

If I could thank that post every day I would

orourkeda

Offy wrote: »

On a scale of 1-10 with 1 as very bad and 10 as very good Id give it a b+

b+ isnt between 1 and 10

BluesBerry

orourkeda wrote: »

b+ isnt between 1 and 10

Thats A1 sharon a1

Offy

orourkeda wrote: »

b+ isnt between 1 and 10

Prove it!

Alkers

yesno1234 wrote: »

You're not taking emmigration into account in that. If the people who had emmigrated stayed you would see that figure significantly higher.

plus the huge number of people who are looking for work but who aren't entitled to any benefits due to being below a certain age or because of their parents incomes.

WalterMitty

F1ngers wrote: »

Actually, it's not that bad for me.
Mortgage nearly paid off (four more repayments to go), nice job, pays well.
Nice little bonus in a couple of weeks.
I would have to say... what recession?
Happy days for me.:D:D:D

Carefull who you tell or some trade unionist will be knocking to your door asking you to "share the burden" with him and the bearded brethern

WalterMitty

Even those on welfare here have it better than 90% of the planet . I was watching a documentary about India where the economy is booming but the poor in slums were catching rats to cook as a protein source! There havent been truly hard times here since the famine :pac:

Saila

bad enough, could be worse though. If you didnt buy a house in the boom and money isnt the be all and end all of your lifes worth its ok, the boom gave a false sense of what normality was for everyone under 20-25 or so
so theres a whole generation who are feeling that sudden shock, if you didnt live a life of riley during the boom you are more insulated from the slump and can psychologically better deal with the changes coming your way.

Also emigration is mostly for graduates the places they are going generally only take qualified people in, its a brain drain on the country but it reduces the numbers and cost of SW benefits paid by the state so its a double edged sword.

the groutch

the depth of a recession isnt something you can generalise imo, it's all about individual circumstances.
for every 10 people who are out of a job, in negative equity, and struggling to pay the bills, there might be someone else who has been saving and has gotten a new house on the cheap, or runs a business which is doing better during the recession (debt collection as an example).

Vicxas

Well look, its bad, but look at the 80's.... and we pulled out of that.

TheZohanS

Vicxas wrote: »

Well look, its bad, but look at the 80's.... and we pulled out of that.

For Ireland this is worse than the 80's. We were sold out by the last government and the present government are a bunch of spineless liars. I give the current government 1 /12 years max before another election.

Mr Benevolent

It's not bad for me. Lowish rent, debt paid off ages ago, shop in Lidl, can afford a car, insurance etc. Negatives are that it's beginning to look possible that my job won't exist in 6-12 months as they're starting to outsource some of our work to India. I wouldn't mind, but I work for an outsourcing company anyway...

stovelid

I'm in I'm Alright Jack until I lose my job and then it will be serious.

admiralofthefleet

i was talking to my future father in law about it on sunday. he was saying he has lived through 3 before this (the late 50's. the 70's and the 80's) but was saying this is the most severe he has seen and reckons it will last for another few years and the recklessness will continue for a couple of generations

Wibbs

andrew wrote: »

As far as recessions go, it's a bad one. But this 'we're fucked for generations stuff' seems a bit excessive. The Irish economy has come through some really, really crap times since independance, and it'll come through again.

Vicxas wrote: »

Well look, its bad, but look at the 80's.... and we pulled out of that.

I lived through the 80's and yes it was bad. Most of my expensively educated mates legged it out of here, money was thin on the ground, but so too was expectation. This time around the expectation is very much higher and people are used to a standard and that standard is slipping. I think psychologically this one will be harder on many.

Economically? Yes we were dirt poor at various times since the foundation of the state. We didn't have much, but we didn't owe that much either. For a long time we were like a low income family struggling at times to pay for luxuries, with some of said luxuries on the higher purchase. Now we're like the middle income family who went batshít on the credit card, who didn't cut their cloth to their measure and have zero hope of ever paying off the huge credit bill, just maintaining it and not even that. While I think we'll get through it, these are very different times IMHO.

mari2222

On the current expenditure side /day-to-day :

1. The 1.8m working pay most of the government's "income" of 40 billion.
2. The government pays out 60 billion, directly to recipients of schemes, to employees, to suppliers or to the various agencies like HSE.

There is a shortage of 20 billion for the year, just in day-to-day spending.!

Agricola

If things pan out the way I think they will, i.e all this debt stays on the state finances and we end up repaying it (or just the interest alone) throughout our own lives, the lives of our kids and then their kids, then yes, I think we are completely fcúked.
Im not an economist, but I put my faith in the people who foretold this mess years ago. If they say this is entirely unsustainable, its a scary place to be.
The best we can hope for is armageddon in the eurozone. Portugal has already folded. If this much sought after debt forgiveness scenario can relieve a significant portion of the burden there may be hope.

the groutch

agree with Wibbs' sentiment, it's a case of the higher you climbed in the boom, the bigger the fall now

admiralofthefleet

TheZohan wrote: »

For Ireland this is worse than the 80's. We were sold out by the last government and the present government are a bunch of spineless liars. I give the current government 1 /12 years max before another election.

i think they will only last a few months. it will go like the shift in the early 80's, haughey>fitzgerald. fitzgerald>haughey and so on

myflipflops

The thing is, we will struggle to know a lot of the impact that this financial meltdown will have until we see it.

It's 10 years time, when there has been a decade of cutbacks in education, health, public infrastructure and the rest, that we will look back and really be annoyed at all the money the government and the people p*ssed up against a wall of half completed apartments in Rathnew.

Right now, it's individuals who are suffering the brunt. In the future, we'll see the country suffer.

Ouchette

Simona1986 wrote: »

plus the huge number of people who are looking for work but who aren't entitled to any benefits due to being below a certain age or because of their parents incomes.

Plus the people who lost their job and decided to stay home and look after the kids and rely on one income instead of 2.

Plus the people who went back into education/stayed on longer than they would have because they couldn't find a job

Plus the people who lost their jobs and took early retirement, knowing they'd be pension age anyway before finding a new job.

...

Numbers of people (not %) in full time work in Ireland this year v 2008ish would be interesting to see.

Wibbs

the groutch wrote: »

agree with Wibbs' sentiment, it's a case of the higher you climbed in the boom, the bigger the fall now

True, the problem is now that those who didn't fly high are having to bail out the high flyers and the daft who did.

mari2222

Ouchette wrote: »

Numbers of people (not %) in full time work in Ireland this year v 2008ish would be interesting to see.

Numbers at work per CSO:

1999 1521700
2001 1663600
2003 1721500
2005 1867100
2007 2030000
2008 2029800
2009 1872500

kfallon

I was too young to be aware of the recession in the 80's but I'd like to ask anyone on here he does remember it, which do they think is worse?

I suppose your view on it will be swayed by personal experience, i.e. you had a job in the 80's recession, lost a job in current recession so obviously you'd say it's worse now!

Still be interested in views/thoughts on it!

admiralofthefleet

kfallon wrote: »

I was too young to be aware of the recession in the 80's but I'd like to ask anyone on here he does remember it, which do they think is worse?

I suppose your view on it will be swayed by personal experience, i.e. you had a job in the 80's recession, lost a job in current recession so obviously you'd say it's worse now!

Still be interested in views/thoughts on it!

i grew up during the 80's so cant really say much but at least then the banks had money