100 Bets to Broke Again Flat & Last of the Jumps

longshotvalue

Here we go again.

4:40 Windsor

Evelyn May : This selection is something of a Gut feeling one, but has a good record fresh and ran well most of last year of a bit lower marks. Second last run at ponte looks decent in that it didnt get the greatest of runs. That run was off 75 with no claimer on board, the 7lbs claimer on today, and the high draw make her a 10/1 or lower shot to me and she is available at 14/1 .

1 Points win 14/1 Betfred.

thesandeman

Best of luck Aidan $$$

jive

Transferring funds into my betfair account with the sole intention of just following you with the account. Last thread was great again, best of luck.

longshotvalue

4:15 Aintree

Mamlook: I had a feeling he would win something at aintree, and altough not amazing value at 7.5 on Betfair, he just looks the most likely winner here. Even tough he is 6lbs out of the handicap (but with a good 5lbs claimer on), this is exactly the type of race for him. his jumping should improve with only 9:9 on his back , and the flat track here should be perfect. There is a bit of cut in the going which will also suit.

2 Points win Betfair

longshotvalue

5:25 Aintree

Afsoun: Had a look at a few of his runs this year, and he looks to have a bit of a chance here. He started the year of with a good 3rd of 90 in a flat handicap and to me looked to be going well in a 3m handicap at cheltenham when brought down and the 3rd last. His 3rd in his last run behind Celestial Halo and Trenchant, makes his mark here of 137 look very decent, considering he was only 6 lnegths behind trenchant there and he is a solid 150 horse. He has a good 3lbs claimer on and the trip should be ideal. He is currently 110 win and 15.5 place on betfair

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

Ante Post National

Calgary Bay: He has been very good this year and his last 2 runs in Cheltenham 2m5f hot handicaps have decent. He is a decent jumper and if he can hunt around the first circuit he may be able to stay the extra trip. He just looks overpriced on betfair at 50 win 11 place. Im sure he will be shorter on the day. The trainer really wont send anything to this race unless she thinks it will suit. Altough he has had 2 poor enough runs at this meeting last 2 years, this year he has had a decent break since january and that should help

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

5:25 Aintree

Get me Out Of Here: He ran a super race in the County Hurdle, just getting nabbed when it looked like he had it won. He seems to only want to do enough to win, and should be able to stand his 5lbs rise here in a much weaker race. I dont think there is any doubt he should go of shorter than the 9.8 that is available now, and in my view he should be FAV. It is a step up in trip but he looks as tough that will suit.

2 Points Win Betfair 9.8

longshotvalue

3:40 Aintree

Boxer Georg: I just cant let a Mullins horse go of at 50/1 at aintree without having small bet. He ran well in his 3rd last run when running on well for 2nd over 2m4f on heavy. He didnt really do anything his next 2 races, but here hoping the better ground and 2m6f trip give him a small chance. Its hard to see Baby Run winning after his excertions at the festival and im having difficutly picking anything elso to beat him. He is currently 50 win 12 place on betfair

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

2:00 Aintree

Thanks to nulty to alerting me to this market

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-rac...4:00/w-o-big-2

I really like Sentry Duty in that Market @ 6/1 , he has had a decent break which is always an advantage with him, he had a excellent run in the Cesarewitch of 102 on the flat. He has a 111 record when fresh.. If he can travel as well as he often does for this trip, that might look a big price. The softer going will only help, (altough in fairness help the big two as well).

2 Points win 6/1 Bet365 or Totesport without the big 2.

Cant resist .5 point win on betfair at 50 on Betfair just in case.

longshotvalue

2:30 Aintree

Houblon Des Obeaux : Sturggling to get the first 2 in the betting beat here, but i think this is the value of the race. The softer going will definatly help here as will the possibility of a bit slower pace than the festival. He has beaten Kumbeshwar and local hero before on soft and i like his chances of placing here. He looks a bit overpriced at 32 win 5 place.

.5 Point win 1 Point Place

jive

aidankkk wrote: »

3:40 Aintree

Boxer Georg:
1 Point win 1 Point Place

Well done. Just 2nd to Baby Run (costs me more money after what he did at Cheltenham!:rolleyes:)

longshotvalue

nnnnnnnnnnnnnooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooooooo

I was sure he had it, poor jump at the last put paid to it.. Still 12 to place

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

2:30 Aintree

Houblon Des Obeaux : Sturggling to get the first 2 in the betting beat here, but i think this is the value of the race. The softer going will definatly help here as will the possibility of a bit slower pace than the festival. He has beaten Kumbeshwar and local hero before on soft and i like his chances of placing here. He looks a bit overpriced at 32 win 5 place.

.5 Point win 1 Point Place

Very lucky to get 3rd here.

longshotvalue

+ 4.5 Point Yesterday

Tread 7 Bets +2.5 BSP + 3.5 Advised. Not run yet 2 Points

longshotvalue

3:40 Aintree

Chasing Cars: Really looks a good ground hrose on the evidence of his runaway win last year at punchestown. Altough the ground is good/soft this should still suit him in comparison to what he has run on this year so far. He has had only 2 runs this year, and the trainer record of sending horses over to the uk in recent years is very good. Hopefully he takes to these fences.

1 Point Each Way 20/1 paying 12345

longshotvalue

2:30 Aintree

The Giant Bolster: with many of the others having gone at the festival, particulary the RSA, teh fact the the selection fell early in that race means he should be fresher for this race than the others. His jumping needs to improve but its not as difficult as Cheltenham. The long run in will definatly suit him and he tent to find loads at the end of his races. The ground should be against Quito De La Roque, and that leaves a lot of the field ruled out in one way of the other. He looks overpriced at 10.5 on Betfair

2 Points Win.

longshotvalue

4:50 aintree

Pistolet Noir: Good 3rd at this meeting last year when staying on in a 2m4f handicap hurdle of the same mark, and not so bad in the Coral Cup when slightly outpaced. The Step up in trip should suit and so should the good ground. He looks overpriced and will surly get backed in as Ruby is up on him for the first time since aintree last year. Currently 21 win 4.8 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

3:40 Aintree

Fistral Beach: If he can be forgiven his run in the racing post chase, where he was send of fav but hit the first and never got going, he might stand a small chance here. Aintree over the Big Fences allways seems to suit strong travellers, and altough the ground is not ideal he does have hurdles form on good ground. He has been a dissapointing horse so far in his career but he looks a bit overpriced in this race at 40/1 EW with Stan James and VCBET paying 12345 places. Amazingly this will be the first race in his carreer he doesnt start FAV, and Sodds law alone warrents a small bet

1 Point EW 40/1 12345

longshotvalue

4:50 aintree

Viking Bond. He is a consistant 3m handicap hurdler whose 3rd in a good race at Cheltenham in December of only 1lb lower on good ground, has to put him in with a half decent chance here. He is well overpirced on betfair at 55 win 10 place on that form. He also ran well enough at the festival to be 7th in the Pertempts.

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

4:15 Aintree

Yurok: Looking trough this race for something that didnt run at the festival, and this one just loosing out to Battlegroup in his last run looks to be a bit of value at a big price. Battlegroup was a good staying on 4th in the Coral Cup. Im hoping the better ground and step up in trip will suit him and he looks a bit overpriced at 38 win 8 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

2:00 Aintree

Brampour: Probably has been a bit dissapointing given his good flat form and home reputation, but he ran well in the triumph until fading after the last, and the 2m here is far easier and that may suit him better. There doesnt seem to be any real superstars in this race and with his 4yo allowence he looks to have a decent chance.

1 Point win 9/1 Bet365 & Coral

mike65

Are you subscribing to the theory that if you sling enough ****e at a wall some of it will stick? Thats 7 picks and still 40 mins to the first!

longshotvalue

mike65 wrote: »

Are you subscribing to the theory that if you sling enough ****e at a wall some of it will stick? Thats 7 picks and still 40 mins to the first!

Not really, but i usually only pick in decent races, and there are a lot of them.

longshotvalue

4:50 Aintree

Shocking to have 3 in the one race but just noticed that Superior Wisdom, was 3rd in this 2 years ago of near this mark, has been lightly raced since, and may be ready for this at a good price.

1 Point win 50 Betfair 1Point Place 9.0

longshotvalue

Rubbish Day yesterday. And when i got up this morning power gone at home, only just back in time.

Aintree 3:25

Reve De Sivola: Last year he improved at the end of the year when 2nd at the festival and then won a very good race at punchestown on good ground. He is better in at the weights here with Bensalem, and should find it easier to stay this 3miles rather than the much more difficult Cheltenham race. He looks a bit overpriced at 9/1

2 Points Win 9/1

longshotvalue

National


Niche Market: His 5th in the Hennessey this year, is some of the best form in the race. He has always had this race in mind for the last 2 years and looks a bit overpriced on form compared to some of the market leaders. He had a run last month to freshen him up and that should have put him right for this race. He is proven in big field when winning the Irish National 2 years ago. Currently 30 win 7 place.


1 Point win 1 Point Place


The Togher One, as with Niche Market he had an excellent run in the Hennessy this year when 4th, and there is always the possibility he may well be suited by the step up in trip and the Aintree Fences. He looks well overpriced for a decent horse with form this year at 95 win on betfair 17.5 to place.



1 Point win 1 Point Place

To add to the above it might be worth taking advantage of Belfair’s excellent prices available on longshots in this race.


Royal Rosa, has a good record over the fences in the Beacher Chase, having been place the last two years, and is worth a min bet at huge odds. He likes the long run in and if he can stay up is as likely as anything to be running on at the end. Currently 200 on betfair.
Vic Venturi, was well fancied for this race last year, but hasn’t looks as good in his prep races this year. Still he is a class animal that has good course form and might be capable of lumping his excessive weight around here with a small chance at a now huge price. Currently 90 on betfair


.5 Point win Each of the above

longshotvalue

5:00 Aintree

Nearby: This horse was an unlucky 3rd in the County at the festival, and this race is nowhere near as strong. He has an extra 4lbs but is carrying 11:05 with his regular claimer on. He loves good ground and has already won 3 2 mile handicaps this year on good. He looks a bit overpriced at 12.5 on Betfair.

2 Points Win 12.5 Betfair

longshotvalue

3:20 Chelt

Secret Dancer : Has looked like one that will appreciate the step up in trip in handicaps, has been running well of higher marks this season. He won his maiden in 09 over 2m 5f on good ground and beat a very good horse High Gales really well that time. He is down in mark and class this time and also up in trip and together that sets alarm bell ringing.

3 Points win 8/1 Ladbrokes

longshotvalue

5:40 Chelt

Gloucester: His not far of 10th in the County hurdle with this claimer on board is far better form than most of the field, he also ran well in the Scottich Champion hurdle last year around this time, and he wont get a better chance. This race is down in class from his usual and he looks value this time. He has the good ground he needs and the additional of the 5lbs claimer should give him a great chance.

2 Points win 10.5 Betfair

longshotvalue

totescoop6 Spring Cup Handicap Newbury 5:45

Al Muheer: This one has done me a few favours in the past and although he ran poorly first time out this season, I think he is going to be profitable to follow in the 7f 1m Handicaps this year. He is at his lowest mark ever and has had a change of trainer since the middle of last season. There can’t be much of a doubt that Dandy Nicholls will have him right for one of these races, and I won’t risk not being on at the right time. He has Blinkers back on here and looks overpriced at 41 win 8.6 place. He has numerous times in the past had good runs after poor ones and there is a better that 40/1 chance that will happen here.


2 Point Win 2 Points Place

Scottish Grand National

Neptune Collonges: My original Selection has just been announced a Non-runner as I write this, but I get the feeling that this one is well overpriced for this race. The slower pace should help him and he may just be too good for most of the field despite the burden of top weight. He has all but seven of the field out of the handicap and surly it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if he can step up in trip here. He has won in the past after good runs in the Gold Cup and has been lightly raced this year. He is currently 25/1 for 5 places


2 Points Each Way 25/1 paying 12345

longshotvalue

Ripon 3:00

Hala San: He been a consistant animal on the flat at around his mark here and was 3rd in this race last year, after having an equally poor NH season as this year. He has the benefit of a top 5lbs claimer on today and that really should give him a far better than 16/1 chance of winning.

2 Points Each Way Stan James 16/1

longshotvalue

Ripon 2:30

Chosen One: He rattled of a few 5f sprints last year in may on Good-firm and this is a similiar race today, he is of a slightly higher mark (3lbs) than the last of his wins last year, but has run well on a few occasions of higher marks than today since. He ran a reasonable last race when didnt quite stay the 5f on good-soft, and can only get better with that run. He looks overpriced at 20/1

2 Points Each Way 20/1 Laddies and a few more

longshotvalue

totescoop6 Spring Cup Handicap Newbury 3:45

Night Lily: Im looking for one on the far side of the draw to my other selection here and she has improved considerably on the AW last 2 runs, particulary when just failing to win a listed race in Kempton last time. Here she split 2 horses rated 94 and 92 and is in here today of 82: If she can transfer that improvement in form over to the turf the 18/1 available with bet365 paying 5 places is going to look far too big.

2 Points Each Way 18/1 Bet365 12345

longshotvalue

2:50 Ayr

Overturn: Im surprised he is available here at 6/1. He will love the ground track and ran up to his mark here in the Champion hurdle despite making the pace for Peddlers. He still ran well and may have been closer only for getting cut off going round the last bend. I had figured he was more of a 4/1 chance so i have to be on at that price. Gone and not getting caught hopefully


3 Points win 6/1 Bet365

longshotvalue

bet365 Gold Cup Chase

Fire & Rain, looks the ideal candidate for this race , he won the summer national on good ground 2 years ago, and has had one prep run over hurdles this year. The trainer was hoping he would get in and he looks surprisingly overpriced. He has had only 1 run this year and obviously had trainign problems but being fresh can only be an advantage here.

2 Points Each Way 33/1 Ladbrokes

FAASEL: Ive been a fan of this horse for a while but he does tend to dissapoint a lot, he has run well over long trips on good ground ( trice and the Festival) and im finding it very difficult to knock him out of the places here. He has a very good claimer on and hopefully will be running on late to snatch win or place. A lot of the other horses just dont give me any reason to think he wont be placed.

2 Points Each way 20/1 VC and Stanjames

longshotvalue

4:50 Sandown:

Freemont, he ran a decent race in the Lincoln and ive always tought he has a bit more to offer. Hopefully he starts his improvement today and he looks value at 14 on betfair in this lower class event. He might just have enough class to win this.

3 Points win 14 Betfair

longshotvalue

Haydock 2:20

Maoi Chinn Tire : Won a listed hurdle on his debut at a huge price, and has benn found out in graded company since. But he did run better last time, and is back on Good Ground here which should suit considering it was good when he won on debut. He just looks a bit overpriced in this handicap where his mark is a touch high , but he does get the 4yo allowence. Looks overpriced at 18/1 to get places in this 8 runner race.

2 Points Each Way 18/1 Stan James

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

FAASEL: Ive been a fan of this horse for a while but he does tend to dissapoint a lot, he has run well over long trips on good ground ( trice and the Festival) and im finding it very difficult to knock him out of the places here. He has a very good claimer on and hopefully will be running on late to snatch win or place. A lot of the other horses just dont give me any reason to think he wont be placed.

2 Points Each way 20/1 VC and Stanjames

nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooooooooooooooooooooo




I was sure he had it ahh well, super run tough.... Bloddy Poker de sivila coming from the clouds (epic peice of riding from Timmy Murphy in fairness)

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Haydock 2:20

Maoi Chinn Tire : Won a listed hurdle on his debut at a huge price, and has benn found out in graded company since. But he did run better last time, and is back on Good Ground here which should suit considering it was good when he won on debut. He just looks a bit overpriced in this handicap where his mark is a touch high , but he does get the 4yo allowence. Looks overpriced at 18/1 to get places in this 8 runner race.

2 Points Each Way 18/1 Stan James

nice 3rd:)

longshotvalue

Irish Grand National

A New Story: He has been placed an unbelivable 4 times in the national, and in my view his run this year at the festival was at least as good as last years considering his extra weight, and he finished best of all. It could take a bomb to knock him out of the places again this year as he sure to finish well when a lot of the untested younger horses are crying enough.

3 Points Each Way 33/1 paying 12345 various Paddy Power Etc..

longshotvalue

Muss 3:05

Chosen One: Has a decent record at the course should be better on good ground, and has a decent turnaround in the weights with horses ahead of him last time here on softer than ideal going. Looks a bit overprices at 20/1

1 Point win 20/1 Bet365 & Stanjames

Verance

RE Irish Grand National, will there be a Rule 4 if Beautiful Sound doesn't run?

longshotvalue

Fair 2:50

Rough Times: A repeat of his last run on good ground would give him an outstanding chance here. He was second to a subsequent winner in galway last year and ran a very good race. He has not been up to that class since on soft or worse ground and hopefully he can get back to form on good ground. Looks overpriced at 18.5 on Betfair.

1 Point win Betfair

longshotvalue

Grand National:

Sebadee: Looking around for a good ground younger horse to go along with my virtual Grandad selection in a New Story, i found this ones form appealing. He has virtually all his form on good or good-firm ground. His has run well is a couple of very decent novice chases, and in particular his second to Back of the pack looks very decent on Good-Firm. He has had a break and came back with another good run at the begining of April in a Grade 2 in April. He certainly could come on for that run and looks a great price at the moment at 50/1 EW on PaddyPower and others. There is just no way hes is the least likely to have a shot here, and his profile is similiar enough to some of the much better fancied younger horses here.

2 Points Each Way 50/1 Paddy power 12345

longshotvalue

5:30 Fair:

Norther Bay : This is a definate good ground horse, and looking back trough his form, what stands out when he last had a decent break was a very good run at limerick in good ground , when he looked a certain winner except for pecking badly at the last. Even his 3rd of 3 to loosen my load, looks half decent considering his rating here of 120. He has had a similiar break since his last run and that could be the key. He looks a bit overpriced on betfair at 22 win

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Irish Grand National

A New Story: He has been placed an unbelivable 4 times in the national, and in my view his run this year at the festival was at least as good as last years considering his extra weight, and he finished best of all. It could take a bomb to knock him out of the places again this year as he sure to finish well when a lot of the untested younger horses are crying enough.

3 Points Each Way 33/1 paying 12345 various Paddy Power Etc..

In fariness a great run again 5th... nice payout..

Johnny86

Hows your P/L with this thread Aidan?..what a horse New Story!!

longshotvalue

Johnny86 wrote: »

Hows your P/L with this thread Aidan?..what a horse New Story!!

Not sure yet, ill make it up tomorrow. certainly down maybe 10-20 points at least. But selecting longshots can take a bit of time for one to hit.. hopfully tomorrrow.

longshotvalue

Need one to rescue this tread

6:35 Fairyhouse

Cuan Na Grai: One of my favourite horses, and he has a lot in his favour here tomorrow. He loves good ground and 2m 1 is the right trip for him. He ran away with a good novice chase at Punchestown last year and then ran 2 very good races over hurdles. After this he ran poor enough in the Plate but he may not stay there. He runs well generally when fresh and there is no way he is a 14/1 shot for this race. The fav has gone up a lot in the weights and is 7lb out of the handicap ( cant understand that ). a lot of his rivals have various problem with going of ratings etc. I had tough before i saw the prices that anything above 6/1 would be good so 14/1 is class

2 Points Each way 14/1 Paddy Power

Id be very surprised if he goes of at anything bigger than 8/1

longshotvalue

7:15 Sedg.

Top Dressing: Last year he won a similiar race well of a much higher mark. He looks better on good ground and has been given a serious chance by the handicapper. he is in of 99 here and won last year of 109. On his good ground form he has a great chance. The stable is in better form of late.

2 Points win 8/1 Bet 365

longshotvalue

5:30 Fairyhouse:

Going to go a different way with this race and pick 2 who both look overpriced. Perfect Smile & Pineau De Re, are the joint highest rated in the race, and alltough there are a few improving types they both have solid form in higher grade races this year. Both will be suited to the Trip and Perfect smile should be suited by the ground while Pineau is unsure on this type of ground. Pineau 12/1 PP and Perfect Smile 14.0 on Betfair.

1 Point Win Each