Is it time to move savings to UK

femur61

I am so dismayed at what has happened. I always saved for a rainy day, I had plan B. Stupid FF hadn't the forsight to look beyond their own bank account. they have so fecked up this country. Is it time now to move savings to a UK bank account.

Scofflaw

femur61 wrote: »

I am so dismayed at what has happened. I always saved for a rainy day, I had plan B. Stupid FF hadn't the forsight to look beyond their own bank account. they have so fecked up this country. Is it time now to move savings to a UK bank account.

Bluntly - no. The money to cover your savings is there, between the NPRF and the IMF/EU, so your deposits are as safe here or there. What you do achieve by moving your deposits, on the other hand, is to increase the tax bill we'll all pay for the banks.

cordially,
Scofflaw

PeterIanStaker

Yes, but do you trust the govt of the day not to renege on that guarantee?

Bullseye1

Switzerland here I come Jking.

Bigcheeze

There has been a run on corporate deposits out of Irish banks for months. ask yourself if these people are being irrational. The government isn't in a position to guarantee deposits as it is funded externally.

poppyvalley

PeterIanStaker wrote: »

Yes, but do you trust the govt of the day not to renege on that guarantee?

no! I do not trust them. I'm heading for Newry

MASTER...of the bra

Bullseye1 wrote: »

Switzerland here I come Jking.

I read around here yesterday the franc was over valued by 34% or there abouts.

Scofflaw

PeterIanStaker wrote: »

Yes, but do you trust the govt of the day not to renege on that guarantee?

The guarantee is irrelevant unless the banks collapse - and what today's news is basically telling us is that the banks won't collapse.

The reason the banks won't collapse is because the results of the stress tests are capital requirements well within the amount set aside for the banks in the IMF/EU bailout facility, and the ECB has agreed to allow the Irish government all the working capital it needs - at ECB rates, which are very low - while the banks are deleveraged and restructured.

However, that doesn't change the fact that Irish taxpayers are ultimately the people filling every hole in the Irish banks. So, you move your savings, which are at no risk, and you thereby make a little hole which everybody (including you, if you're an Irish taxpayer) pays for.

cordially,
Scofflaw

MASTER...of the bra

poppyvalley wrote: »

no! I do not trust them. I'm heading for Newry

Watch for those pesky maintenance fees.

Bigcheeze

Scofflaw wrote: »

The guarantee is irrelevant unless the banks collapse - and what today's news is basically telling us is that the banks won't collapse.

The reason the banks won't collapse is because the results of the stress tests are capital requirements well within the amount set aside for the banks in the IMF/EU bailout facility, and the ECB has agreed to allow the Irish government all the working capital it needs - at ECB rates, which are very low - while the banks are deleveraged and restructured.

However, that doesn't change the fact that Irish taxpayers are ultimately the people filling every hole in the Irish banks. So, you move your savings, which are at no risk, and you thereby make a little hole which everybody (including you, if you're an Irish taxpayer) pays for.

cordially,
Scofflaw

The only thing today's news tells us is that the banks won't collapse in the near future.

Choose to believe stress tests (again) if you wish.

The Irish taxpayer can't pay back this debt. Every independent economist is telling us this. What happens when this comes to a head? It's unchartered territory so to say that deposits are at no risk is reckless.

PeterIanStaker

Scofflaw wrote: »

The guarantee is irrelevant unless the banks collapse - and what today's news is basically telling us is that the banks won't collapse.

The reason the banks won't collapse is because the results of the stress tests are capital requirements well within the amount set aside for the banks in the IMF/EU bailout facility, and the ECB has agreed to allow the Irish government all the working capital it needs - at ECB rates, which are very low - while the banks are deleveraged and restructured.

However, that doesn't change the fact that Irish taxpayers are ultimately the people filling every hole in the Irish banks. So, you move your savings, which are at no risk, and you thereby make a little hole which everybody (including you, if you're an Irish taxpayer) pays for.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I'll remember that when I go to the Savings A/C in a few months and there's nothing there.

Scofflaw

Bigcheeze wrote: »

The only thing today's news tells us is that the banks won't collapse in the near future.

Choose to believe stress tests (again) if you wish.

The Irish taxpayer can't pay back this debt. Every independent economist is telling us this. What happens when this comes to a head? It's unchartered territory so to say that deposits are at no risk is reckless.

That the Irish taxpayer "can't" pay back this debt in the long run is completely meaningless in terms of whether your savings are currently safe.

I wouldn't regard the stress tests as 100% definitive, either, but compared to the previous set of tests, I'd say we've moved from a position of low confidence (less than 50%) in the final figure to one of higher confidence (say 75-80%), which suggests that if €24bn isn't the final figure, the final figure is in that ballpark, rather than being multiples of that figure.

More importantly, the ECB have backed the result with a pretty definitive announcement of access to as much working capital as is needed, while the government have come out with an actual plan - which puts us streets ahead of where we were a month ago.

So I don't think it's "reckless" at all to say that for the moment your savings are OK - whereas I don't think I'd have any hesitation in saying that implying or stating the opposite is reckless in the extreme, since the only thing that could really bollix the whole ball game right now is a panic-induced run on the banks. And that would be very sad, because today's news is probably the best news we've had in a long time about the banks (which, admittedly, is not a high bar to set). After all, it's not as if we were collectively unaware that the figures Lenihan was putting forward were likely to be final.

cordially,
Scofflaw

FGR

I don't think it's a matter of whether our savings are in danger because of them being withdrawn by the state. My fear is the possibility of Ireland, without notice, would withdraw from the Euro and would immediately ban people from converting their savings to any other currency bar the new 'punt'. This punt would more than likely be heavily devalued following the inevitable withdrawal.

US Dollars are looking quite tempting right now.

professore

I don't believe there is no risk to savings. I understand Scofflaw why you might want to say that but I think most of the people on here do not believe it.

Prof

professore

There is already a run on the banks here for months now - in typical Irish fashion we don't get hysterical or riot here. We actually have an awful lot in common with the Japanese, without the indigenous hi tech manufacturing industry.

Scofflaw

ForegoneReality wrote: »

I don't think it's a matter of whether our savings are in danger because of them being withdrawn by the state. My fear is the possibility of Ireland, without notice, would withdraw from the Euro and would immediately ban people from converting their savings to any other currency bar the new 'punt'. This punt would more than likely be heavily devalued following the inevitable withdrawal.

US Dollars are looking quite tempting right now.

Again, though, that's the complete opposite of what's implied by today's news. If the stress tests had produced a figure outside the amount earmarked for the banks in the IMF/EU bailout facility, then sure - as it is, all that's happened is we're a lot closer to knowing just how bad things are.

Most people have been doing calculations of Irish debt based on us using the entire bailout facility. Unless the current set of stress tests are off by a factor of two in their estimate of the extra needed over what we already knew, then we still don't reach that debt figure - and while the government may have a motive for making things sound less bad than they are, they have a far stronger motive for getting the bad news over with now, while the figure is still associated with the previous government. Another couple of months, and we'll be up the other end of the goldfish bowl...

cordially,
Scofflaw

kraggy

You need a Uk address to open up a bank account.

I'm not sure about this, but I think you may also need a National Insurance number. I think I did when I was living there and opened a bank account.

ArtSmart

Bigcheeze wrote: »

There has been a run on corporate deposits out of Irish banks for months. ask yourself if these people are being irrational. The government isn't in a position to guarantee deposits as it is funded externally.

it u mean institutions - they have to - AAA rating an all that. (as for the silent run, to be expected. anyway, the banks will be reducing in size, so loan ratios wise, cant see it making a huge difference)

I'd have to say though, from today onwards there is less risk than there was before, so not sure why the OP is more concerned now.

the news today was good news, believe it or not.

'sides, unless you have Georgie Soros flexibility / mobility, here's the same as anywhere, esp the uk

hmmm

Bigcheeze wrote: »

The Irish taxpayer can't pay back this debt. Every independent economist is telling us this.

No every economist is not. This kind of loose talk is based on what people are hearing from one or two celebrity economists who are looking to make a name for themselves, and it is morphing into people down the pub going on about how "we are eventually going to default".

For once, it would be nice if Irish people wouldn't jump on the nearest passing soundbite bandwagon. We've only got past "rent is dead money" and "you'll never lose on property", now it is "burn the bondholders" and "we are going to default eventually".

jank

hmmm wrote: »

No every economist is not. This kind of loose talk is based on what people are hearing from one or two celebrity economists who are looking to make a name for themselves, and it is morphing into people down the pub going on about how "we are eventually going to default".

For once, it would be nice if Irish people wouldn't jump on the nearest passing soundbite bandwagon. We've only got past "rent is dead money" and "you'll never lose on property", now it is "burn the bondholders" and "we are going to default eventually".

I agree with some of this but.....we are going to default, it may be called something else but we are broke.... it is natural for people to be concerned and panicky about this situation.

femur61

Bigcheeze wrote: »

The only thing today's news tells us is that the banks won't collapse in the near future.

Choose to believe stress tests (again) if you wish.

The Irish taxpayer can't pay back this debt. Every independent economist is telling us this. What happens when this comes to a head? It's unchartered territory so to say that deposits are at no risk is reckless.

Noonan did say if we haven't extended the amount of the bailout to another 24bn we would have found the ATMs empty today so when we default will our deposits be effected. The likely senario is we will have to default because we cannot expect the taxpayer foot the bill. It is unsustainable so what will happen to our deposits then?

ei.sdraob

Scofflaw wrote: »

Bluntly - no. The money to cover your savings is there, between the NPRF and the IMF/EU, so your deposits are as safe here or there.

There is something like 150 billion in deposits according to DoF thats a bit more than NPRF and IMF/EU have, and dont get me started on the "guarantees" national or EU which either dont have the money or are not in place fully for another few years.

Scofflaw wrote: »

What you do achieve by moving your deposits, on the other hand, is to increase the tax bill we'll all pay for the banks.

Not everyone pays same level of taxes (if barely any) in this country

ei.sdraob

MASTER...of the bra wrote: »

I read around here yesterday the franc was over valued by 34% or there abouts.

I just got back from there, accounts have many currency subaccounts (trying to get a dollar subaccount for trade from irish banks was a joke), you get a number to send electronic transfers to, and an anonymous cash card to withdraw.

Overall I am impressed with the country (from free public transport to inumerable banks and watch shops ), something that Ireland could be if there where more people like Permabear being in politics

edwinkane

Scofflaw wrote: »

Bluntly - no. The money to cover your savings is there, between the NPRF and the IMF/EU, so your deposits are as safe here or there. What you do achieve by moving your deposits, on the other hand, is to increase the tax bill we'll all pay for the banks.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Your logical answer doesn't address the emotional worry. I don't think many people believe that if they move their bit of money somewhere else, that it will affect the cost to society. It's when billions of deposits leave the country then that will have an effect, and we are told anyhow that billions left some time ago.

hairybanana

Could anybody advise where is the absolute safest place to keep a sum of money (less than €100K) in the current climate? The savings we have accumulated over the years was very hard earned and I'm happy to sacrifice any interest gained in favour of absolute security.

(a) keep it in one of the remaining Irish banks and depend on the deposit guarantee scheme?
(b) prize bonds?
(c) An post savings certificates
(d) keep it in a safe at home?
(e) move to a non-Irish, non-euro bank e.g. US based
(f) buy gold
(g) put it all on "The Last Bailout" in the 5.30 at Newmarket
(h) ???

Much Appreciated

alfa beta

hairybanana wrote: »

Could anybody advise where is the absolute safest place to keep a sum of money (less than €100K) in the current climate? The savings we have accumulated over the years was very hard earned and I'm happy to sacrifice any interest gained in favour of absolute security.

(a) keep it in one of the remaining Irish banks and depend on the deposit guarantee scheme?
(b) prize bonds?
(c) An post savings certificates
(d) keep it in a safe at home?
(e) move to a non-Irish, non-euro bank e.g. US based
(f) buy gold
(g) put it all on "The Last Bailout" in the 5.30 at Newmarket
(h) ???

Much Appreciated

As I just mentioned in another thread I'm happy to keep my savings in rabo - they seem safe to me

Scofflaw

edwinkane wrote: »

Your logical answer doesn't address the emotional worry. I don't think many people believe that if they move their bit of money somewhere else, that it will affect the cost to society. It's when billions of deposits leave the country then that will have an effect, and we are told anyhow that billions left some time ago.

Unfortunately, logical answers rarely address emotional concerns. On the other hand, it's undeniable that thousands of depositors moving thousands of deposits equals multiple millions moving - it's also undeniable that nobody ever thinks their little bit of movement is important, or thinks about the thousands of others just like them doing the same.

That's why the OPW has to rebuild the twenty foot of wall nearest the cliff as Dun Aengus every year - because thousands of visitors think they're the only person to take a stone from the walls and drop it over the cliff for the splash.

Sure if people thought about logical consequences rather than emotional concerns, we wouldn't have had the property bubble in the first place.

cordially,
Scofflaw

edwinkane

Scofflaw wrote: »

Unfortunately, logical answers rarely address emotional concerns. On the other hand, it's undeniable that thousands of depositors moving thousands of deposits equals multiple millions moving - it's also undeniable that nobody ever thinks their little bit of movement is important, or thinks about the thousands of others just like them doing the same.

That's why the OPW has to rebuild the twenty foot of wall nearest the cliff as Dun Aengus every year - because thousands of visitors think they're the only person to take a stone from the walls and drop it over the cliff for the splash.

Sure if people thought about logical consequences rather than emotional concerns, we wouldn't have had the property bubble in the first place.

cordially,
Scofflaw

The causes of property bubble, greed and fear, are probably the same reasons individuals decide to move their money out of the Euro and into Australian Dollars or Sterling or wherever. Personal loss, of fear of losing their money, probably ranks higher in most peoples priorities than concern for society as a whole.

Scofflaw

edwinkane wrote: »

The causes of property bubble, greed and fear, are probably the same reasons individuals decide to move their money out of the Euro and into Australian Dollars or Sterling or wherever. Personal loss, of fear of losing their money, probably ranks higher in most peoples priorities than concern for society as a whole.

Yup - and it works out so well, too. The best thing is that afterwards, people admire the ones who "got out early" or "got in early" - depending on what form of irrationality we're talking about - rather than viewing them as a leadng part of the problem.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Hayte

Keep your money in your existing current and savings account. For the love of god don't do things like invest in gold, or withdraw all your money and stash it in a shoebox under your bed. This just makes it easier to lose. Don't dump it in an offshore account either since that just makes it more difficult to access and spend when you need to.

If loads of depositors withdraw their money at the same time for fear of the bank becoming insolvent, then it will become insolvent because it has no reserves to enable new lending.

All deposits under €100,000.00 are guaranteed by the the Deposit Guarantee Scheme anyway.

edwinkane

Scofflaw wrote: »

Yup - and it works out so well, too. The best thing is that afterwards, people admire the ones who "got out early" or "got in early" - depending on what form of irrationality we're talking about - rather than viewing them as a leadng part of the problem.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I imagine moving your cash from Euro's to Sterling is not a public act. so how someone who might have done this can be viewed as anything is unsure as no one else will know unless you tell them.

Mind you, it's fine for us to sit here tut tutting, but I imagine many people feel their first duty is to themselves, and don't imagine there are too many who think their duty to a currency is of higher priority than their duty to themselves and their family.

ei.sdraob

Hayte wrote: »

All deposits under €100,000.00 are guaranteed by the the Deposit Guarantee Scheme anyway.

Which is not worth the paper its written on if the **** comes to shove.

The state gets its money from taxpayers, if banks go down, taxpayers pay (the taxpayer is already left with multidecade long bill to repay due to these banks). In effect you are guaranteeing yourself...

edwinkane

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Which is not worth the paper its written on if the **** comes to shove.

I did wonder that, if the Euro goes bust, what value a guarantee in Euro's might be, especially when offered by a bankrupt government.

Hayte

Then do whatever you think is best. I'm just telling you what will happen if everyone sees the situation like you and shoe boxes all their deposits.

Hysteria does nobody any good.

JonJoeDali

There's a very real chance we get booted out of the Euro - without warning - and we have to re-adopt the punt.

For this reason, it's good to have your bank deposits in either Rabo or a UK bank a/c.

edwinkane

Hayte wrote: »

Then do whatever you think is best. I'm just telling you what will happen if everyone sees the situation like you and shoe boxes all their deposits.

Hysteria does nobody any good.

Thankfully, I live in London and so it doesn't affect me to any great degree. IBut I agree with your thought process that most individuals are likely to do what they think best. It would be an unusual world if individuals decided to do what they thought was not best!

Bigcheeze

hmmm wrote: »

No every economist is not. This kind of loose talk is based on what people are hearing from one or two celebrity economists who are looking to make a name for themselves, and it is morphing into people down the pub going on about how "we are eventually going to default".

For once, it would be nice if Irish people wouldn't jump on the nearest passing soundbite bandwagon. We've only got past "rent is dead money" and "you'll never lose on property", now it is "burn the bondholders" and "we are going to default eventually".

So you change my words to suit your argument. I said "independent economists". I'm aware there are plenty of economists working for the government and the EU who are in favour of the current path.

Dismissing the overwhelming weight of domestic and international economic opinion as "one or two celebrity economists" is laughable. Is Krugman a celebity economist ? Is the Financial Times some sort of economic Hello magazine ? Are the 46 economists who signed the Irish Times NAMA letter celebrity whores ?

JonJoeDali

Bigcheeze wrote: »

Are the 46 economists who signed the Irish Times NAMA letter celebrity whores ?

Every one of them employed on permanent pensionable employment terms.

Writing a letter to the "Irish Times" with all your postnominals after your name is the ultimate middle class accolade.

Hayte

edwinkane wrote: »

Thankfully, I live in London and so it doesn't affect me to any great degree. IBut I agree with your thought process that most individuals are likely to do what they think best. It would be an unusual world if individuals decided to do what they thought was not best!

Doing what you think is best still doesn't make you right. But its not like I'm going to change your mind by proving that you are wrong, so whats the point? You know what capital flight is. You know how banks make money through fractional reserve.

ei.sdraob

Hayte wrote: »

Doing what you think is best still doesn't make you right. But its not like I'm going to change your mind by proving that you are wrong, so whats the point? You know what capital flight is. You know how banks make money through fractional reserve.

I dont remember reading anything in the consitution about having to support banks on moral grounds. Neither do I remember voting on the banks despite now being made an indirect shareholder along with everyone else in the country.

CiaranC

I havent read the thread, but Im guessing Scofflaw is on here saying that deposits are safe and that nothing bad will happen, just like he did all the other times something really, really bad happened. If he is - panic!

SeaFields

Aside from the risk aspect of it (which some say is there, others saying there is no risk), would it be sensible to do ones banking now with a foreign bank which is more likely to lend in the future? i.e. to build up a good record with one.

General inquiry from someone hope will hopefully be wanting to get a mortgage in future years.

gman2k

JonJoeDali wrote: »

There's a very real chance we get booted out of the Euro - without warning - and we have to re-adopt the punt.

This.

At the moment, the fall of the Euro is not being truly considered by the political system. All it will take is a change of opinion by the political system, and anything can happen. A lot of Germans want their DM back.

Regards getting booted out of the Euro, it'll more than likely that we will want to exit, devalue, become competitive and return to growth again. Whether it's the Punt we return to, or a Tier 2 (PIGS currency) Euro, it is going to happen.
It won't be the end of the world, just short term pain. There are other countries in the EU with their own currencies.
Regarding deposits, look what happened in Argentina, and can anyone honestly say we are in a better place economically than the Argentinians were?

Hayte

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I dont remember reading anything in the consitution about having to support banks on moral grounds. Neither do I remember voting on the banks despite now being made an indirect shareholder along with everyone else in the country.

I don't remember ever saying anything about supporting banks on moral grounds. Morality has nothing to do with it. Its about initiating a run on the bank that holds your deposits.

irishh_bob

kraggy wrote: »

You need a Uk address to open up a bank account.

I'm not sure about this, but I think you may also need a National Insurance number. I think I did when I was living there and opened a bank account.

you dont need a uk adress to open an account with hsbc in the north but beware , they are the worst bank in the world for customer service and charge through the nose for maintainence fees and whatever you do , dont allow them to do the forex if you decide to move into sterling from euro or any other currency for that matter

Scofflaw

CiaranC wrote: »

I havent read the thread, but Im guessing Scofflaw is on here saying that deposits are safe and that nothing bad will happen, just like he did all the other times something really, really bad happened. If he is - panic!

Because every time I said it previously, everyone lost their deposits..oh, no, wait, they didn't.

There have now been how many panic-stricken calls for people to move their deposits? And their effect has been what, exactly, other than to help make holes in the banks, which we all then get to fill through increased capital injections paid for by the taxpayer? So, what I've said - the banks will require extra capital due to deposit flight - has turned out to be the case, while what has been said by the panickers - you'll lose your deposits - has not. Nobody has lost their deposits - not here, not even in Greece.

If I see a genuine reason to fear that the Irish banks will collapse and take our deposits with them, I will have no hesitation in saying so. As it is, though, I don't see any reason to keep jumping at every shadow as if the sky was falling, particularly at points like this, when the news is actually positive. And yes, my money is where my mouth is.

wearily,
Scofflaw

Cool Mo D

There is no chance we will get booted out of the euro, as no-one has the power to do so. Even if the ECB decided to tell the world that Ireland was no longer welcome in the Euro club, there is nothing they could do to stop us taking part.

What is possible is that Germany would leave the Euro themselves. However, having a depressed euro (due to the crisis) is great for Germany's economy, so there is absolutely no benefit for them to do so.

irishh_bob

JonJoeDali wrote: »

There's a very real chance we get booted out of the Euro - without warning - and we have to re-adopt the punt.

For this reason, it's good to have your bank deposits in either Rabo or a UK bank a/c.

if we got kicked out of the euro , having savings in rabbo wouldnt save you from the effects of devaluation , not unless you had your money in a rabbo branch in amsterdam

irishh_bob

gman2k wrote: »

This.

At the moment, the fall of the Euro is not being truly considered by the political system. All it will take is a change of opinion by the political system, and anything can happen. A lot of Germans want their DM back.

Regards getting booted out of the Euro, it'll more than likely that we will want to exit, devalue, become competitive and return to growth again. Whether it's the Punt we return to, or a Tier 2 (PIGS currency) Euro, it is going to happen.
It won't be the end of the world, just short term pain. There are other countries in the EU with their own currencies.
Regarding deposits, look what happened in Argentina, and can anyone honestly say we are in a better place economically than the Argentinians were?

i was in argentina for a week in 2004 , argentina is far less wealthy than ireland

Tora Bora

In the event of a future soverign default by Ireland, due to the weight of the bank debt on the economy (in the main), it could happen thet the government would confiscate a portion of bank deposits and pension funds belonging to Irish citizens.
Something similar happened in Hungary, at least with regard to private pension funds. Not sure about bank deposits, but in principle, if the state can nationalize your pension fund, they sure as hell could take your banks deposits.
Anything is now possible. Blindly believing that the worst will not happen because Germany and EU would not let it happen, for fear of destabilising the whole of Europe, is not wise.
Spain is far from safe. Italy is far from safe. Belgium is far from safe both economically and plitically. As a consequence Germany and France are far from safe, due to their banks exposure to these economies.

Scofflaw

Tora Bora wrote: »

In the event of a future soverign default by Ireland, due to the weight of the bank debt on the economy (in the main), it could happen thet the government would confiscate a portion of bank deposits and pension funds belonging to Irish citizens.
Something similar happened in Hungary, at least with regard to private pension funds. Not sure about bank deposits, but in principle, if the state can nationalize your pension fund, they sure as hell could take your banks deposits.
Anything is now possible. Blindly believing that the worst will not happen because Germany and EU would not let it happen, for fear of destabilising the whole of Europe, is not wise.
Spain is far from safe. Italy is far from safe. Belgium is far from safe both economically and plitically. As a consequence Germany and France are far from safe, due to their banks exposure to these economies.

And then there's swine flu, of course. Anything is always possible - the question is whether it's likely, and the answer is that right now it isn't. An Irish default or bank collapse is now less likely than it was before the stress tests.

cordially,
Scofflaw