US Masters 2011 - refund if Tiger or Mickelson wins

Warper

Stan James are refunding losing bets as free bets if Tiger or Mickelson wins the Masters this year. Max €250. Good offer considering they are first and second favs at around 8-1.

Fancy Dustin Johnson myself @ 25-1. I can see him having a really big year.

heavyballs

Warper wrote: »

Stan James are refunding losing bets as free bets if Tiger or Mickelson wins the Masters this year. Max €250. Good offer considering they are first and second favs at around 8-1.

Fancy Dustin Johnson myself @ 25-1. I can see him having a really big year.

well he'll do well to emulate 2010 tbh,hardly the most outlandish prediction i've read
my 2 outsiders for starters
KJ 80/1
Ryan Moore 100/1

btw betpack are doing that refund also,

Vurnon San Benito

I've been attacked for even mentioning his name with this tournament but 30/1 for McIlroy is tempting to say the least.

I bet on him during the British Open @ 16/1 hence my enthusiasm; indeed it was a tournament I think he would have went on to win if it wasn't for that awful second day.

Big price, but people says he's a big bottler.
Should make the cut at least..

Thoughts?

jive

Doocey wrote: »

I've been attacked for even mentioning his name with this tournament but 30/1 for McIlroy is tempting to say the least.

I bet on him during the British Open @ 16/1 hence my enthusiasm; indeed it was a tournament I think he would have went on to win if it wasn't for that awful second day.

Big price, but people says he's a big bottler.
Should make the cut at least..

Thoughts?

I don't think he's a bottler but I don't think he has it in him yet to win a masters if you know what I mean. He has the potential to win it BUT I don't think he will do it this year. Maybe next year if he keeps on improving but i just think he's too young to do it yet and needs a bit more experience in the big events. I'd love to see him do it though!

Fursttimer

Doocey wrote: »

I've been attacked for even mentioning his name with this tournament but 30/1 for McIlroy is tempting to say the least.

I bet on him during the British Open @ 16/1 hence my enthusiasm; indeed it was a tournament I think he would have went on to win if it wasn't for that awful second day.

Big price, but people says he's a big bottler.
Should make the cut at least..

Thoughts?

Two years ago (on his first appearance) his putting was excellent at Augusta (ranked in top 5). Ignore last year's effort.

He's in cracking form over the last few months and with question marks surrounding others, McIlroy is must bet material.

My main bet this year.

Juwwi

I've been thinking about starting to bet on Westwood to win in every major and bet whatever l need to bet to win a grand.

So basically if he's 14/1 l put €72 win on him to win.

I have a feeling he will win one soon and then the day he does I can take the monday off to collect a grand :cool:.

Any opinions on this,has he had his chances to win 1 already or is it a good idea.

heavyballs

robbie1977 wrote: »

I've been thinking about starting to bet on Westwood to win in every major and bet whatever l need to bet to win a grand.

So basically if he's 14/1 l put €72 win on him to win.

I have a feeling he will win one soon and then the day he does I can take the monday off to collect a grand :cool:.

Any opinions on this,has he had his chances to win 1 already or is it a good idea.

i don't like the betting strategy robbie,it's hard to win a major,yes he probably will win 1 in the next 5 years but how much will you have spent in that time
i'd be more into backing him heavy in the one(s) you fancy him in

imo his short putting is still very suspect under pressure,much like McElroy but not as bad
i have to say i don't like him fot the masters,he's a great driver of the ball but his stock shot with that club is a baby fade,a shot that just won't do it for you around here

Fursttimer

robbie1977 wrote: »

I've been thinking about starting to bet on Westwood to win in every major and bet whatever l need to bet to win a grand

This isn't a clever way to gamble. Betting an amount to win a certain amount is the same as thinking in golf, if I can two-putt this I'll get 2pts. That's now how you putt!

Don't bet selections to win extra money and don't bet extra money to win more. That's pure greed and in fact abusive gambling. Quite common and very dangerous.

Be happy to place a small amount you can afford each time. Yes part and parcel of gambling is about profit but people also fail to realise that another part is to spend as little as possible (or what you can afford at that time) for the same enjoyment.

If you fancy Lee Westwood, don't let anyone put you off. Gambling is, after all, a game of opinion.

Heavyballs made a great point though. Westwood isn't a natural drawer of a golf ball so the majority of Augusta National does not suit him. Another player to be cautious of is Martin Kaymer. He's in the same boat as Westwood.

Paul Casey is a great bet at 11/1 to be top European. It looks to be between him and McIlroy.

fatherbuzcagney

putting a 10e bet on angel jimmy at 279/1 on betfair and going to wait til saturday or sunday to do another small bet ,as lots of top players miss the cut at agusta and i think there can be good value after the cut as it is anyones til back 9 on sunday.

Fursttimer

fatherbuzcagney wrote: »

putting a 10e bet on angel jimmy at 279/1 on betfair and going to wait til saturday or sunday to do another small bet ,as lots of top players miss the cut at agusta and i think there can be good value after the cut as it is anyones til back 9 on sunday.

Masters history would disagree with you. With the exception of Zach Johnson in 2007, since 1991 each champion has been in the final pairing on the final day

fatherbuzcagney

Fursttimer wrote: »

Masters history would disagree with you. With the exception of Zach Johnson in 2007, since 1991 each champion has been in the final pairing on the final day

Masters history may disagree with me but as long as you agree with me i'm happy:P Many players have let there chance of a major victory slip away on the back 9 on sunday and im sure this sunday will be no different. I like to get a little sweat for my money so thats why ill wait til cut to have a good punt on someone, i hate when i back a golfer and he doesn't make weekend. Hopefuly Jimmenez will have a good 4 days. I wouldn't have taught that ZJ would have been the only exception since 1991 , well spotted.

Fursttimer

fatherbuzcagney wrote: »

Masters history may disagree with me but as long as you agree with me i'm happy:P Many players have let there chance of a major victory slip away on the back 9 on sunday and im sure this sunday will be no different. I like to get a little sweat for my money so thats why ill wait til cut to have a good punt on someone, i hate when i back a golfer and he doesn't make weekend. Hopefuly Jimmenez will have a good 4 days. I wouldn't have taught that ZJ would have been the only exception since 1991 , well spotted.

Miguel has a decent record at Augustaover the last several years. Definitely one of the longer shots with a live chance. Good luck

Vurnon San Benito

Fursttimer wrote: »

Two years ago (on his first appearance) his putting was excellent at Augusta (ranked in top 5). Ignore last year's effort.

He's in cracking form over the last few months and with question marks surrounding others, McIlroy is must bet material.

My main bet this year.

Glad someone else is thinking like me.
I'm thinking his price will only shorten but I'm caught between two options:

1. Back him at ToteSport @ 30/1 - Awarding 5 places.
OR
2. Back him at PaddyPower @ 22/1 - Awarding 6 places.

ToteSport is probably the most exciting option, but 6 places could be safe one..

Ideas?

Juwwi

I'll have to re think my Westwood plan some good points made thanks
for the replys.

Doocey he is 28/1 with Boyles paying 1st 6

abouttobebanned

This is a great offer. Because I think Mickleson will win. He knows the course better than the rest of the field. ALthough if he gets to single figures...then i just couldn't back him.

Vurnon San Benito

robbie1977 wrote: »

I'll have to re think my Westwood plan some good points made thanks
for the replys.

Doocey he is 28/1 with Boyles paying 1st 6

Just noticed that, probably the best option alright!

Fursttimer

Doocey wrote: »

Glad someone else is thinking like me.
I'm thinking his price will only shorten but I'm caught between two options:

1. Back him at ToteSport @ 30/1 - Awarding 5 places.
OR
2. Back him at PaddyPower @ 22/1 - Awarding 6 places.

ToteSport is probably the most exciting option, but 6 places could be safe one..

Ideas?

Like Robbie just suggested, I'm punting McIlroy with Boyles. Best offer around on him at the moment. They'll likely have some sort of money back special too so do no harm waiting till tomorrow night or Tuesday, or even longer.

Each and every year the prices of golfers in the Masters drift out with every bookmaker closer to the event. Golfwise, it's their biggest money-spinner of the year. I'd reckon come Wednesday evening you'll easily get 33/1 on McIlroy.

Vurnon San Benito

Fursttimer wrote: »

Like Robbie just suggested, I'm punting McIlroy with Boyles. Best offer around on him at the moment. They'll likely have some sort of money back special too so do no harm waiting till tomorrow night or Tuesday, or even longer.

Each and every year the prices of golfers in the Masters drift out with every bookmaker closer to the event. Golfwise, it's their biggest money-spinner of the year. I'd reckon come Wednesday evening you'll easily get 33/1 on McIlroy.

You think so?
Well I took 28/1 last night as I thought it might decrease.

Might go in again if that price comes up, you'll probably be right.
As for Boyles and a Money-back special, I think they already have it.
Awarding 6 places, and if you selection finishes if your player is beaten in a play-off, they'll refund your losing single stake.

Nothing exactly special about that one at all, but for what's it's worth: I think McIlroy will be around 25/1 before the competition tee's off, which would still be good value.

Thanks for the info anyway Fursttimer.

Hoki

Lads hows Martin Kaymer playing recently ? He's 18/1 which i thought was quite generous considering hes the worlds number 1 . How has he done here over the last few years - does he like it at Augusta etc..

jive

Hoki wrote: »

Lads hows Martin Kaymer playing recently ? He's 18/1 which i thought was quite generous considering hes the worlds number 1 . How has he done here over the last few years - does he like it at Augusta etc..

He's made the cut every year but finished nowhere every year. He's a quality player so you can't discount him but given that record I wouldn't be putting anything on him at that price. It's probably the most open masters in living memory and there's a lot of people capable of winning.

There's a whole host of outsiders such as G mac at 45/1 who could win it. My money is going on the outsiders anyway, hopefully Mickelson the poo doesn't run away with it!

Also a player worth noting is Bubba Watson at 40/1. This course suit people who have a good drive. His short game will need to be better if he's to win though.

RandolphEsq

Lion Kim is my star pick, purely for his name!

Fursttimer

Hoki wrote: »

Lads hows Martin Kaymer playing recently ? He's 18/1 which i thought was quite generous considering hes the worlds number 1 . How has he done here over the last few years - does he like it at Augusta etc..

I mentioned earlier in the thread that Kaymer is like Westwood, they both aren't natural drawers of the ball. The majority of holes at Augusta are dog leg left (which require a draw). Kaymer has worked very hard on that side of his game since the back end of last year but that aspect of his swing could be very suspect when the pressure mounts.

For this reason, I think his price is very short despite his obvious talent.

ValueSeeker

Ok lads, picks in early this week here: US Masters Picks. On a great run with 75/1 Horsey adding to 40/1 win on Laird last week.

US Masters - What to look for.
The key to doing well around Augusta is the ability to avoid long putting and chipping from around the greens. The greens are so large and fast that you need to be extremely accurate with your irons to get as close to the pin as possible and under the hole as much as possible.

Fairways are generous enough and although tree lined, you can get away with loose shots ala Mickelson and Woods last year. So obviously the further you can drive the ball on what is a long course, the better so I'm sticking with the longer hitters/accurate iron players. Inevitably there will be some tough up and downs for everyone so short putting is also key. A lot of my picks are near the top of the putting from inside 5' and 10' stats.

ValueSeeker

For those interested in golf trading and fancy some advice, you can see my golf trading strategy here. Some recent winning examples at the bottom of the page. If you want to stay in touch, you can follow me on FB and Twitter through the links on the site.

Fursttimer

jive wrote: »

He's made the cut every year

He's missed the cut each year he has played

jive

Fursttimer wrote: »

He's missed the cut each year he has played

lol whoops I was reading a page that had "cut" for each year, I assumed he made the cut because there was no "missed cut" there :pac: apologies

Juwwi

Fursttimer wrote: »

I mentioned earlier in the thread that Kaymer is like Westwood, they both aren't natural drawers of the ball. The majority of holes at Augusta are dog leg left (which require a draw). Kaymer has worked very hard on that side of his game since the back end of last year but that aspect of his swing could be very suspect when the pressure mounts.

For this reason, I think his price is very short despite his obvious talent.

Hi Fursttimer if you have time to list the top 5 or 10 drawers of the ball
l would be very gratfull and lm sure a few others would too.

Obviously anyone could win it but l've heard a few pundits talk about drawing the ball.

Thanks in advance Robbie.

heavyballs

HOT
Phil
Rory
Watney
Ryan Moore
MA Jimmy
Lucas Glover

NOT
Westwood
Kaymer
Cink
Laird

Fursttimer

robbie1977 wrote: »

Hi Fursttimer if you have time to list the top 5 or 10 drawers of the ball
l would be very gratfull and lm sure a few others would too.

Obviously anyone could win it but l've heard a few pundits talk about drawing the ball.

Thanks in advance Robbie.

Augusta is a very unique golf course. They have curved fairways so a draw does have an advantage but you can't also rule out a fade. When you fade the ball you get less run so the ball tends to stay on the fairway. A player who can hit both shots with good distance (Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Rory McIlroy (best at draw)) has an advantage over the field. Despite it being his first time, Martin Laird has also both shots in his game and I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up a good performance. He won recent a Bay Hill, a course that has a lot of right to left holes (just like Augusta).

Short hitters tend to draw the ball more to get extra yardage. One such player is Zach Johnson, who won here in 2007. Luke Donald is another fine example. It's no coincidence that a big outsider this year, Heath Slocum (performed well at Bay Hill, 600's on betfair), done well last year. He has one of the finest swings on tour and he favours a draw.

Drawing the ball off the tee though doesn't guarantee success. First and foremost the most important aspect of playing Augusta is scrambling. And not just normal scrambling. Top-class imagination to get the ball in the hole from in and around the green. Ultimately, this is what will win you the Masters.

Anyhow as requested.

The best drawers of a golf ball at this moment in time.

Nick Watney
Robert Allenby
Rory McIlroy
Bubba Watson

I mentioned earlier on the thread that I like McIlroy's chances this year. If I had to pick one golfer that has the game to open up Augusta it's Bubba Watson. You'd be an absolute mug not to have a bet on him.

Hope that helps. Good luck

heavyballs

Fursttimer wrote: »

. Despite it being his first time, Martin Laird has also both shots in his game and I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up a good performance. He won recent a Bay Hill, a course that has a lot of right to left holes (just like Augusta).

personally i think he'll miss the cut,if you look at Bay Hill yes there are a lot of draw holes but there is a lot more bail out there
personally i think he's a super driver of the ball but is NOT comfortable hitting a draw,even at Bay Hill on the dog leg left Par 5 which is begging for a draw he decide to cut off a huge chunk to hit his fade

i may be wrong but heh this is all about opinions etc so we'll see..........

ValueSeeker

robbie1977 wrote: »

Hi Fursttimer if you have time to list the top 5 or 10 drawers of the ball
l would be very gratfull and lm sure a few others would too.

Obviously anyone could win it but l've heard a few pundits talk about drawing the ball.

Thanks in advance Robbie.

Here are a few longer odds players with the most control(and with distance) off the tee. Most prefer the right to left shot:

Sean O' Hair
Robert Allenby
John Senden
Hunter Mahan
Francesco Molinari
KJ Choi
Kenny Perry
Robert Karlsson
Graeme McDowell
Adam Scott

They can all shape the ball well.

ValueSeeker

Fursttimer wrote: »

I mentioned earlier on the thread that I like McIlroy's chances this year. If I had to pick one golfer that has the game to open up Augusta it's Bubba Watson. You'd be an absolute mug not to have a bet on him.

He certainly has the game but it's his temperament and nervousness I'd be worried about in the biggest events.

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Here are a few longer odds players with the most control(and with distance) off the tee. Most prefer the right to left shot:

Sean O' Hair
Robert Allenby
John Senden
Hunter Mahan
Francesco Molinari
KJ Choi
Kenny Perry
Robert Karlsson
Graeme McDowell
Adam Scott

They can all shape the ball well.

Perry not in the field. Day, Glover, Van Pelt, Hanson and Oosthuizen also excellent drivers of the golf ball as well as Rollins(NR), Love and Moore.

Fursttimer

Doocey wrote: »

You think so?
Well I took 28/1 last night as I thought it might decrease.

Might go in again if that price comes up, you'll probably be right.
As for Boyles and a Money-back special, I think they already have it.
Awarding 6 places, and if you selection finishes if your player is beaten in a play-off, they'll refund your losing single stake.

Nothing exactly special about that one at all, but for what's it's worth: I think McIlroy will be around 25/1 before the competition tee's off, which would still be good value.

Thanks for the info anyway Fursttimer.

McIlroy now 33/1 with a couple of firms. Power's pushed their ridiculous 22/1 out to 28/1. Should be 33's with them and boyles in no time

They've pushed out Watson to 40's aswell from 33's.

It happens each and every year especially with the Masters so bide your time with your selections and get the best odds available

Raskolnikov

Mickleson @ 6/1 is a joke.

Here are my thoughts.

Hunter Mahan to win - 33/1
Camilo Villegas top 5 - 40/1
Jhonattan Vegas top 5 - 60/1
Jerry Kelly top 5 - 80/1

RichieD

I bet on Ryan Moore.

Just cause he has the same name as the champion jockey.

Vurnon San Benito

Yeah, you were right.

Hope it doesn't drift much more, although Boyles & Paddy's are the only two offering 6 places as far as I can see. That'll probably change too.

Any ideas what he might go off at?

Bubba's at 45 with Betfair, chance for trading?

Fursttimer

Doocey wrote: »

Yeah, you were right.

Hope it doesn't drift much more, although Boyles & Paddy's are the only two offering 6 places as far as I can see. That'll probably change too.

Any ideas what he might go off at?

Bubba's at 45 with Betfair, chance for trading?

There's a chance of 40's on McIlroy. Prob be 35's in general. I'll be surprised if Bubba isn't 50's with the majority of bookmakers tomorrow or Wednesday. Should be able to get 50's on betfair.

Juwwi

Thanks for the lists of drawers of the ball much appreciated.

A tip for people Ladbrokes isnt on oddschecker but they usually are the best price on lots of golfers.

Also it might be first 5 on the net with firms but in shop they could be doing first 6.

If l remember right last year Wednesday lunchtime is when the players price doesbe at the highest with Ladbrokes and William Hill last year being best.

Warper

Have 3 backed

Mickelson @ 10.5 to 1
D Johnson @ 25-1
KJ Choi @ 149-1

Backed Mick and Choi last week on Betfair while Johnson with Stan James.

Choi is also 75-1 to be first round leader, he starts off well, might be worth a tiny stake

The_Kew_Tour

Lads is Gary Woodland a decent price at 189/1 with Betfair?

Think its value myself. I know its his first attempt but he won already this year and he should be relaxed

Fursttimer

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Lads is Gary Woodland a decent price at 189/1 with Betfair?

Think its value myself. I know its his first attempt but he won already this year and he should be relaxed

I worry about his putting around Augusta. It's the weakest part of his game. He has been working hard on it with Brad Faxon over the last six months though and it's improving steadily. Remains to be seen if he can cope with Augusta's greens on his first appearance

The_Kew_Tour

Fursttimer wrote: »

I worry about his putting around Augusta. It's the weakest part of his game. He has been working hard on it with Brad Faxon over the last six months though and it's improving steadily. Remains to be seen if he can cope with Augusta's greens on his first appearance

Cheers for feedback. Good point kind tempted maybe just back him for top 10 now.

okidoki987

Ladbrokes going 6 places - Shops only.

Ladbrokes isnt on oddschecker

They have some involvement with Bestbetting and only advertise there now.

okidoki987

Power's pushed their ridiculous 22/1 out to 28/1. Should be 33's with them and boyles in no time

Irish player - Irish bookmaker - Irish Punters.
They would always be short same for rugby, soccer teams etc.
The same goes in the UK for Coral, Ladbrokes & Hills for English teams.

The_Kew_Tour

okidoki987 wrote: »

Power's pushed their ridiculous 22/1 out to 28/1. Should be 33's with them and boyles in no time

Irish player - Irish bookmaker - Irish Punters.
They would always be short same for rugby, soccer teams etc.
The same goes in the UK for Coral, Ladbrokes & Hills for English teams.

Ya worked in bookies for while and you do get lot of people bet on Irish.

I remember when Ireland played Germany few years back in Stuttgart in same stadium we beat England 1-0 in 88 we had quiet large number of people coming in backing Ireland to win 1-0.

Fursttimer

For any of you betting with powers and betting to just win. Don't bet from the outright betting market, choose the win only. The majority of players are better prices

Johner

Anthony Kim at 40/1 for me.unpredictable but came 3rd last year.

gimli2112

Backed Michelson 'cos I always do and he's so much fun. Awful price tho.
McIlroy @ 28/1 ew
Then couldn't sleep last night thinking of Woods at 12/1 in Augusta and with Poulter calling him a loser, so backed him ew this morning :rolleyes:

Nuri Sahin

Damn Butch copying my bets

I'm going with Mickelson, Watney and DJ..... and yes, the latter 2 cost me big last year in the Majors :P

carrick76

Fursttimer wrote: »

Augusta is a very unique golf course. They have curved fairways so a draw does have an advantage but you can't also rule out a fade. When you fade the ball you get less run so the ball tends to stay on the fairway. A player who can hit both shots with good distance (Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Rory McIlroy (best at draw)) has an advantage over the field. Despite it being his first time, Martin Laird has also both shots in his game and I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up a good performance. He won recent a Bay Hill, a course that has a lot of right to left holes (just like Augusta).

Short hitters tend to draw the ball more to get extra yardage. One such player is Zach Johnson, who won here in 2007. Luke Donald is another fine example. It's no coincidence that a big outsider this year, Heath Slocum (performed well at Bay Hill, 600's on betfair), done well last year. He has one of the finest swings on tour and he favours a draw.

Drawing the ball off the tee though doesn't guarantee success. First and foremost the most important aspect of playing Augusta is scrambling. And not just normal scrambling. Top-class imagination to get the ball in the hole from in and around the green. Ultimately, this is what will win you the Masters.

Anyhow as requested.

The best drawers of a golf ball at this moment in time.

Nick Watney
Robert Allenby
Rory McIlroy
Bubba Watson

I mentioned earlier on the thread that I like McIlroy's chances this year. If I had to pick one golfer that has the game to open up Augusta it's Bubba Watson. You'd be an absolute mug not to have a bet on him.

Hope that helps. Good luck

Would left handers like Bubba Watson and Mickelson not need to fade the ball if the majority of holes are right to left?