How did Brain Lenihan win Dublin West?

jetsonx

Quite frankly,I am baffled as to how Brian Lenihan kept his seat.

Lets look at the facts:

-Every assumption he has made about the economy has been
wrong since 2008.

-He has continually fed lies to the Irish public about the state of the economy and NAMA.

-He has proved himself to be a devious backstabber when it comes to his attempts to shaft his party colleagues.


So what is wrong with the electorate of Dublin West? Maybe they are impressed by his big words coupled with his air of gravitas and equate these characteristics with competence? Maybe they feel sorry for him regarding his illness? Maybe they have a tradition for voting in Lenihans to the constituency? Can anyone shed light onto the matter?

Kiwi_knock

I honestly think it was lack of alternatives. No other candidate stood out enough for them to get a seat. The second labour candidate was not really supported at all by the party due to his stance on a possible Labour/FG coalition. The second FG candidate was not very good, and FG only in the last few days tried to make an attempt to grab a second seat. Nearly impossible for the Sinn Féin candidate to build up enough support due to the fact Joe Higgins is in the constituency and a lot of the left wing and protest votes go to him. I think with a strong independent candidate Lenihan's seat might have been threatened.

Lenihan's seat was never in doubt, not enough effort by either Labour or FG was made to take the seat.

DrumSteve

Bacause he was "the best" of a bad bunch.

LostinBlanch

I think Kiwi_knock has given a very good explanation.

But don't forget all the publicity about "bravely battling cancer" etc, getting the sympathy vote.

Frankly, I take everything that individual says with a large pinch of salt including tales of his medical condition.

BostonB

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

...
Lenihan's seat was never in doubt, not enough effort by either Labour or FG was made to take the seat.

+1

Also Lenihan speaks well. Only if you have really take an interest in whats going on, will you realise the problems. A lot don't.

cavedave

LostinBlanch I heard two middle aged women talking about him in a cafe who said essentially they voted for him because they felt sorry for him because he was sick. The Michael Lewis piece on Ireland says

Anyone who has been anywhere near an Irish Catholic family knows the member who has had the most recent run of bad luck enjoys exalted status—the right to do pretty much whatever he wants, while everyone else squirms in silence. Since news of Lenihan’s illness broke—just days after he’d learned of it himself, rushing him into telling his children—he has minimized his suffering. Underlying the public-opinion polls that show the Irish feel a lot better about the minister of finance than they do about other politicians in his party is a common, unspoken understanding of his bravery.

jimmycrackcorm

He did have a very high profile - witness how Micheal Martin topped the poll and pulled in a running mate with him. Most voters know nothing about the candidates they vote for - which is why we have so many posters at election time so familiarity counts for a lot.



Frankly I'm baffled at how Mick Wallace got voted in. After the country being destroyed by developers ending up owning millions that we'll have to pay for, one of them gets voted in....

sollar

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Frankly I'm baffled at how Mick Wallace got voted in. After the country being destroyed by developers ending up owning millions that we'll have to pay for, one of them gets voted in....

We have a strange mindset in this country. Read the book ship of fools and you'll be amazed at the sort of dross we vote into office no matter what they do..... michael lowry is a prime example.

UsernameInUse

Let me tell you a little fact about your average Irish voter.

Many of my friends live in and around Dublin West. Their choices?

1. Joan Burton
2. Leo Varadkar
3. Joe Higgins
4. Brian Lennihan

None of these people believe in anything remotely similar to each other than bailing out the banks and continuing this bureaucracy. The only one who doesn't think we should be bailing out banks is a socialist in the extreme.

The reason they didn't vote for anyone else? "They didn't recognise their faces".

Liam Byrne

BostonB wrote: »

Also Lenihan speaks well.

Depends on your definition of "speaks well".

Having zero credibility and spouting lies and excuses doesn't spring to mind, so therefore I'd have to disagree with your statement.

Lapin

jetsonx wrote: »

Quite frankly,I am baffled as to how Brian Lenihan kept his seat.

Lets look at the facts:

-Every assumption he has made about the economy has been
wrong since 2008.

-He has continually fed lies to the Irish public about the state of the economy and NAMA.

-He has proved himself to be a devious backstabber when it comes to his attempts to shaft his party colleagues.


So what is wrong with the electorate of Dublin West? Maybe they are impressed by his big words coupled with his air of gravitas and equate these characteristics with competence? Maybe they feel sorry for him regarding his illness? Maybe they have a tradition for voting in Lenihans to the constituency? Can anyone shed light onto the matter?

Your criticism of Lenihan is mainly focused on his record in the Department of Finance. But you seem to forget the old adage that all politics is local

The electorate of Dublin West weren't voting for the Minister of Finance, they were voting for a strong local TD.

Regardless of what anyone thinks of FF, there is no denying that Lenihan has been one of the most influencial politicians in Leinster House for a number of years.

Even in opposition he would have more sway over decisions affecting his constituency than some voiceless independent.

nesf

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

He did have a very high profile - witness how Micheal Martin topped the poll and pulled in a running mate with him. Most voters know nothing about the candidates they vote for - which is why we have so many posters at election time so familiarity counts for a lot.

Cork South Central's a kind of unusual case. Martin and McGrath both have excellent local profiles and good reputations locally. Sufficient for them to be seen as different than the FF mass, and indeed that's how they were sold on the doorstep, they weren't sold as FF candidates but as (almost) independent candidates who'd be worthy of a vote regardless of which party they were in.

What really got FF the second seat was FG screwing up vote transfers. Coveney grabbed far too big a 1st preference share and this cost Deirdre Clune her seat and McGrath was always going to win against a Shinner for the last seat (SF just don't have the presence (yet) in the constituency to challenge seriously for the last seat). If FG had managed their vote better then McGrath could have very easily not got the last seat. Martin didn't have enough of a vote lead to bring in McGrath if he'd been up against Clune for the last seat I think.

Victor

"All publicity is good publicity."

Sir Oxman

cavedave wrote: »

LostinBlanch I heard two middle aged women talking about him in a cafe who said essentially they voted for him because they felt sorry for him because he was sick. The Michael Lewis piece on Ireland says

This.

ArmaniJeanss

One of my lower preference votes got him over the line (via the distritution of FG2 Denilsons eliminated votes).

For me it was the lack of an alternative, I voted FG2/FG1 ahead of him in the hope of getting two centrist right politicans elected, but FG ran a poor campaign which never believed that could get FG2 home.
Below Denilson I was just left with Socialists, Labour 2 or SinnFein, none of which I fancy.
So Lenihan imo, was clearly fourth best candidate in the constituency.

The Waltzing Consumer

It was no surprise to see Burton, Varadkar and Higgins get the first three seats.

After that we had Lenihan and his competition:
1) FG2- Dennison, too quiet, did not stand out at all, did he actually exist?
2) Labour2 - Nulty, dreadful candidate, would have been much better if Labour had picked Peggy Hamill.
3) SF - Wow, a replacement of a replacement of a replacement of a councillor. I think people were confused that this guy is in a position which seems to be pass the parcel for SF.
4) Greens - Poor Roderic, if only the Greens had not gotten into power, he may have stood a chance, did not help that never heard of him inbetween two elections.
5) FF Junior - Bad candidate, never really existed, even had some dodgy boards accounts set up promoting this guy, which were banned.
6) Nigerian Independent - Eh, yeah. Not a lot happened with this guy. I read he thinks there is an oil refinery in Dublin

So 10 candidates, three obvious ones, Lenihan and six dire dire dire others. So OP, you have a good point, but that is why Lenihan got elected.

Max Power1

Who is "Brain" Lenihan?

Thread Title wrote:

How did Brain Lenihan win Dublin West?

Liam Byrne

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

So Lenihan imo, was clearly fourth best candidate in the constituency.

Christ above! Give that Lenihan was responsible for saddling us with a ridiculous and ill-advised blanket bank guarantee, what the hell did the other candidates do ? Murder people ? Eat babies ?

jetsonx

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Christ above! Give that Lenihan was responsible for saddling us with a ridiculous and ill-advised blanket bank guarantee, what the hell did the other candidates do ? Murder people ? Eat babies ?

This is exactly what I'm thinking. I still am not over the shock. Do Irish people ever learn? They voted in Haughey's protege twice and now the people of Dublin West vote in a pathological liar who signed away the country to the IMF and EU so he can help his friends in the Banks.

wee truck big driver

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Depends on your definition of "speaks well".

Having zero credibility and spouting lies and excuses doesn't spring to mind, so therefore I'd have to disagree with your statement.

speaking of lies what about f.g and labs promise to renegoiate the imf/e.u deal pity they didnt tell the people they where going to seek a higher interest rate and surrender or corporation tax to further increase the unemployment rate and wheres the 60000 jobs and the public servants hold on to there privlige days the level and rate of change from the last goverment is so underwhelming its hard to keep up

wee truck big driver

leo varadkar minister for sport because he played cricket at preschool once or maybe it was rounders hes not sure

wee truck big driver

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Christ above! Give that Lenihan was responsible for saddling us with a ridiculous and ill-advised blanket bank guarantee, what the hell did the other candidates do ? Murder people ? Eat babies ?

the bank guarantee was such a bad idea f.g and lab have taken the baton and or going to run with it at least until europe has bled us dry and we cant give anymore

timbel

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

One of my lower preference votes got him over the line (via the distritution of FG2 Denilsons eliminated votes).

For me it was the lack of an alternative, I voted FG2/FG1 ahead of him in the hope of getting two centrist right politicans elected, but FG ran a poor campaign which never believed that could get FG2 home.
Below Denilson I was just left with Socialists, Labour 2 or SinnFein, none of which I fancy.
So Lenihan imo, was clearly fourth best candidate in the constituency.

There was an alternative - just vote 1 and 2, and leave the rest.
I actually voted for Nulty as my second choice in the hope that he would get enough transfers to stop Lenihan.

Unfortunately, there was enough of a FF base in D15 to get him over the line:(

MOC1972

wee truck big driver wrote: »

leo varadkar minister for sport because he played cricket at preschool once or maybe it was rounders hes not sure

What has this got to do with the first or any post

wee truck big driver

MOC1972 wrote: »

What has this got to do with the first or any post

to show how much has changed since the old goverment wth brian lenihan was in charge we have a new dynamic goverment with ministers who kow what they are talking about

MOC1972

O its so clear now poor old Brian got the vote of the old people who could not let down the party who broke Ireland.The small bit thats left of ff is a really good team sure Willie is back after telling lies under oath Now can you tell me what would Michael do without his Willie:)

ArmaniJeanss

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Christ above! Give that Lenihan was responsible for saddling us with a ridiculous and ill-advised blanket bank guarantee, what the hell did the other candidates do ? Murder people ? Eat babies ?

I guess I don't use my vote to punish people for the previous 5 years, but to elect the best possible people for the next 5 years. I'd have loved to be in a constituency with a Shane Ross or Paul Somerville indo, or 2 strong FG candidates running a co-ordinated campaign. This would have made my vote easier.

I do think the other parties missed a trick in this constituency, perhaps understandably with the amount of heavyweights there. But Lenihan was clearly beatable if say FG or even Labour had put a vote management plan in place. At the end of the day Lenihan got elected 1500 shy of the quota as early as the 5th count, which would definitely imply that other parties got their candidates elected too early and that a different result was possible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_West_(D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency)#2011_general_election

timbel wrote: »

There was an alternative - just vote 1 and 2, and leave the rest.

I don't consider this a correct strategy in a 4 seat constituency, because whether I like it or not 4 of them are going to be elected therefore I am going to vote at least 4 preferences to maximise my input into the vote.

wee truck big driver

MOC1972 wrote: »

O its so clear now poor old Brian got the vote of the old people who could not let down the party who broke Ireland.The small bit thats left of ff is a really good team sure Willie is back after telling lies under oath Now can you tell me what would Michael do without his Willie:)

was ireland not broke before f.f got into power

MOC1972

Maybe you are right Brian was a sound guy my bad
That guy who had nothing to do with the curent mess or that did not get to build Bertie bowl maybe is small bit to blame.
Otherwise FF should be given an other chance to tell us why its not there mess. :cool:

Liam Byrne

wee truck big driver wrote: »

the bank guarantee was such a bad idea f.g and lab have taken the baton and or going to run with it at least until europe has bled us dry and we cant give anymore

What choice did your beloved FF leave them with ?

wee truck big driver

Liam Byrne wrote: »

What choice did your beloved FF leave them with ?

the one sinn fein wanted to pursue another interesting point for all you e.u lovers by the time we have paid all the money and interest involved in the bailout we will have given the e.u more than all the moneys gained since we joined in 73 that was worth giving up are soverignty for

wee truck big driver

Nhead wrote: »

Are Sinn Fein anti-EU?

pretty much i think

Godge

The Waltzing Consumer wrote: »

It was no surprise to see Burton, Varadkar and Higgins get the first three seats.

After that we had Lenihan and his competition:
1) FG2- Dennison, too quiet, did not stand out at all, did he actually exist?
2) Labour2 - Nulty, dreadful candidate, would have been much better if Labour had picked Peggy Hamill.
3) SF - Wow, a replacement of a replacement of a replacement of a councillor. I think people were confused that this guy is in a position which seems to be pass the parcel for SF.
4) Greens - Poor Roderic, if only the Greens had not gotten into power, he may have stood a chance, did not help that never heard of him inbetween two elections.
5) FF Junior - Bad candidate, never really existed, even had some dodgy boards accounts set up promoting this guy, which were banned.
6) Nigerian Independent - Eh, yeah. Not a lot happened with this guy. I read he thinks there is an oil refinery in Dublin

So 10 candidates, three obvious ones, Lenihan and six dire dire dire others. So OP, you have a good point, but that is why Lenihan got elected.

Pretty good analysis. Felt sorry for Dennison as Varadkar tried to manage the vote. Burton didn't make the same effort. The rest didn't count.

Liam Byrne

wee truck big driver wrote: »

the one sinn fein wanted to pursue another interesting point for all you e.u lovers by the time we have paid all the money and interest involved in the bailout we will have given the e.u more than all the moneys gained since we joined in 73 that was worth giving up are soverignty for

Firstly, quit the "eu lovers" crap, because you're wrong and it undermines your argument.

Secondly, if there's one thing I hate more than con-men doing stuff that the public find reprehensible, it's people who support murdering Gardai and doing OTHER stuff that the majority find reprehensible.

So I agree with your summation that we're giving back more than we ever gained from the EU, but Sinn Féin were simply not an option for me.

wee truck big driver

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Firstly, quit the "eu lovers" crap, because you're wrong and it undermines your argument.

Secondly, if there's one thing I hate more than con-men doing stuff that the public find reprehensible, it's people who support murdering Gardai and doing OTHER stuff that the majority find reprehensible.

So I agree with your summation that we're giving back more than we ever gained from the EU, but Sinn Féin were simply not an option for me.

well more people have been killed by the gardai than gardai killed. see your oul buddy edna has already capitulated to the e.u seems all the big talk was for the idiot electorates benifit. seems hes quite the obedient wee boy when hes dealing with the real players and proper order he should know his place

PeterIanStaker

He got the sympathy vote off handwringing ouldwans. But, if I articulated how I felt about him I'd be banned.

So I'll just say that Fianna Fail need to be eradicated from this island (followed in time by the rest of the Civil War parties) and a proper Left/Right divide needs to come into being, instead of farting on about whose grandad shot who's grandad in the Battle of Ballyarsebackwards and breeding two strains of stultifying conservatism that continue to infect and condemn the nation.

wee truck big driver

PeterIanStaker wrote: »

He got the sympathy vote off handwringing ouldwans. But, if I articulated how I felt about him I'd be banned.

So I'll just say that Fianna Fail need to be eradicated from this island (followed in time by the rest of the Civil War parties) and a proper Left/Right divide needs to come into being, instead of farting on about whose grandad shot who's grandad in the Battle of Ballyarsebackwards and breeding two strains of stultifying conservatism that continue to infect and condemn the nation.

whats that smell

Liam Byrne

wee truck big driver wrote: »

well more people have been killed by the gardai than gardai killed.

Strawmanning. How many of those were justifiable since the Gardai are the accepted representatives of law & order ?

wee truck big driver wrote: »

See your oul buddy edna has already capitulated to the e.u seems all the big talk was for the idiot electorates benifit. seems hes quite the obedient wee boy when hes dealing with the real players and proper order he should know his place

I don't have an "oul buddy edna", and didn't even vote FG first preference in the election, so quit showing yourself up by talking through the wrong orifice, please.

wee truck big driver

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Strawmanning. How many of those were justifiable since the Gardai are the accepted representatives of law & order ?



I don't have an "oul buddy edna", and didn't even vote FG first preference in the election, so quit showing yourself up by talking through the wrong orifice, please.

i wasnt aware we had capital punishment. strange how somebody who speaks so eloquently about the virtues of fine gael at every oppourtunity didnt manage to give them a number one maybe you where one of the 14010 voting independent in tipp north

Liam Byrne

wee truck big driver wrote: »

i wasnt aware we had capital punishment.

Well we did once, but since you didn't bother backing up your list by letting us know who you were talking about when you claimed that the Gardai killed more people than people killed them, it's hard to even take the claim seriously. They still killed far, far less than terrorists and other criminals.

wee truck big driver wrote: »

strange how somebody who speaks so eloquently about the virtues of fine gael at every oppourtunity didnt manage to give them a number one maybe you where one of the 14010 voting independent in tipp north

You can take that particular insult back RIGHT AWAY! :mad:

I don't vote for con-men OR cop-killers.

And since you mentioned - however inadvertently - the word "where", I couldn't have voted for ANYONE in Tipp North, even if your insult were correct and I were someone who supported unsavoury characters.

PeterIanStaker

wee truck big driver wrote: »

whats that smell

here's a clue: its not semtex and it ain't bulls hit.

May I reiterate: Wipe out the Civil War parties and make some progress.