Irish lotto odds!

Worztron

Hi.

The odds of winning the Irish lotto are 1 in 8,145,060.
I presume that is for one line. What would the odds be for doing 3 lines, 5 lines, etc.?

Also, which has better odds? Doing one line quickpick for 52 weeks or doing the lotto one day a year with 52 lines?

wyndham

Worztron wrote: »

Hi.

The odds of winning the Irish lotto are 1 in 8,145,060.
What would the odds be for doing 3 lines, 5 lines, etc.?

Also, which has better odds? Doing one line quickpick for 52 weeks or doing the lotto one day a year with 52 lines?

3 in 8,145,060 and 5 in 8,145,060, respectively.

Odds of winning selection are the same with regard to the latter question, however, differing jackpot amounts mean that it can be more or less +ev on some weeks than others.

Did I pass this Junior Cert probability exam?

im invisible

It can be more or less what?
Also minimum you can do in one draw is 2 lines.

Im sure there was a thread about this lying around here somewhere?

dar83

Worztron wrote: »

Hi.

The odds of winning the Irish lotto are 1 in 8,145,060.
I presume that is for one line. What would the odds be for doing 3 lines, 5 lines, etc.?

Also, which has better odds? Doing one line quickpick for 52 weeks or doing the lotto one day a year with 52 lines?

They all have the same odds...

Your chance with any one line is 1 in 8,145,060. Doesn't matter if you have 1 or 100, the only difference is you have 100 1 in 8,145,060 chances with 100 lines.

Fighting Irish

im invisible wrote: »

It can be more or less what?
Also minimum you can do in one draw is 2 lines.

Im sure there was a thread about this lying around here somewhere?

There's one every week

OutlawPete

dar83 wrote: »

They all have the same odds...

Your chance with any one line is 1 in 8,145,060. Doesn't matter if you have 1 or 100, the only difference is you have 100 1 in 8,145,060 chances with 100 lines.

Exactly, it's just like backing the same horse two or three times.

With regards to which gives you better odds, doing 52 lines one day, or doing the lotto 52 times - doing it 52 times in one day gives you better odds of winning.

52 Draws - Each draw you have a 8,145,060 to 1 chance of winning.

52 Lines - You now have a better odds of winning as you are covering more (52) possible outcomes at one draw.

Saila

the odds are you wont win

Colilfc

7.

red menace

Been thinking about this for a bit,

Would a better lotto system be that all numbers are generated randomly, IE quick pick only.
But once a combination of six numbers has been chosen, that combination is removed from the pool.
It would mean no more sharing of jackpots, maybe it's just the greedy bollix in me

Overheal

i know how to scam scratch cards.

just sayin.

mickdw

Overheal wrote: »

i know how to scam scratch cards.

just sayin.

No you dont

Columbia

As far as the latter question goes, you would actually be slightly better off playing 52 lines all in one day. If combination A doesn't work out, then that comes out of the 8,145,060 possible draws, so that combination B now has a 1 in 8,145,059 chance of winning, combination C a 1 in 8,145,058 chance, and so on.

If you play one a week, then the chance always stays at 1 in 8,145,060 no matter how many times you lose.

Pretty sure of that anyway...perhaps some mathematician will correct me

OutlawPete

Columbia wrote: »

As far as the latter question goes, you would actually be slightly better off playing 52 lines all in one day. If combination A doesn't work out, then that comes out of the 8,145,060 possible draws, so that combination B now has a 1 in 8,145,059 chance of winning, combination C a 1 in 8,145,058 chance, and so on.

Pretty sure of that anyway...perhaps some mathematician will correct me

No, if the OP bought 52 lines, his odds of winning the lottery would go from:

8,145,060/1 to 156,635/1.

Tahuti

OutlawPete wrote: »

No, if the OP bought 52 lines, his odds of winning the lottery would go from:

8,145,060/1 to 156,635/1.

This can't be right.

Overheal

mickdw wrote: »

No you dont

yeah huh! I learned it in a magaazine.

kippy

OutlawPete wrote: »

No, if the OP bought 52 lines, his odds of winning the lottery would go from:

8,145,060/1 to 156,635/1.

That is definitely not correct.

Tahuti

kippy wrote: »

That is definitely not correct.

I've been doing some configuring and it turns out he's right.

Sorry, Pete.

OutlawPete

Tahuti wrote: »

I've been doing some configuring and it turns out he's right.

Sorry, Pete.

No bother, I'm used to people telling me I'm wrong when when it comes to probability

Actually, just doing ONE extra line in the Lotto increases your mathematical odds of winning it from 8,145,060/1 to: 4,072,530/1.

It's not even that hard to bring the odds of the winning the lottery all the way down from 8,145,060/1 to just: 814/1!

All you would need to do is spend €15,000 on 10,000 lines (€1.50 a line right?) to have those odds of winning it.

You'd want to be mad of course to spend €15,000 on the lottery, but if you did - you'd be guaranteed to get the 814/1.

If were you rich and insane, you could even make the odds of winning the same as flipping a coin by buying 4,072,530 lines, as then you'd have a 50:50 chance of winning (they still could share it though, if they were unlucky enough that someone else also had the winning six numbers that week).

lugha

OutlawPete wrote: »

Exactly, it's just like backing the same horse two or three times.

With regards to which gives you better odds, doing 52 lines one day, or doing the lotto 52 times - doing it 52 times in one day gives you better odds of winning.

52 Draws - Each draw you have a 8,145,060 to 1 chance of winning.

52 Lines - You now have a better odds of winning as you are covering more (52) possible outcomes at one draw.

Don't see how so Pete???
You have a better chance in the one draw you enter. But surely this comes at a price of having zero chances in the 51 draws you didn't enter?
Swings and roundabouts, no?

OutlawPete

lugha wrote: »

Don't see how so Pete???
You have a better chance in the one draw you enter. But surely this comes at a price of having zero chances in the 51 draws you didn't enter?
Swings and roundabouts, no?

To be honest, I'm not sure how to work out the odds of doing many different lotteries.

Just know that the odds of winning with 52 lines are 156,635/1.

So, is your thinking that the odds are the same for both then?

OutlawPete

lugha wrote: »

.. surely this comes at a price of having zero chances in the 51 draws you didn't enter?

To add, I do see where you're coming from by the way, just that everytime you do just one line in a draw, your 'mathimathical' odds will be 8,145,060/1 no matter how many draws you happen to have done before (all-draws-being independent-events-and-not-having-a-'direct'-effect-on-the-next and all that).

just-joe

I think there is a thread over in the maths forum. And if not, I'd say ask those guys, they'll definitely explain it ya to ya.

I'd try but too lazy and tired.

But I think that thinking of it in odds is slightly more tricky than probabilities. (Or for me anyways). Basically if you buy two lines you have twice as large a probability of winning, but this number is still so close to zero, you might as well not waste your money. It only becomes significant if you were to buy thousands of lines, as Pete mentions.

And as for having a quick pick only lotto, with no line given twice - yes this would eliminate jacpots being split, but also the jackpot would be won more often, as you have to think about people who had the same line but didn't win. So it would be less likely to roll over. So the jackpot might not be as big?

murpho999

Used to do lotto regularly and then one day looked seriously at odds of winning and also read somewhere before that the Lottery is a "voluntary tax on the desparate and stupid" and really had an effect on me and I haven't done it since.

Used the same numbers all the time and checked my numbers and only had 2 match 4 wins totaling about €60 in last 3 years.

Used to do 4 panels with plus in two draws, so that's €16 a week or €832 a year. So last 3 years I would have spent €2496 and won around 60.

Think it makes that quote ring true and glad I don't do it anymore!

3DataModem

You have better chance of winning by doing 52 in 1 week than one in each 52 weeks. The difference is tiny, but real.

Think of it like this... do you have a better chance of winning if you did 8145061 lines in one week, or one line over 8145061 weeks?

Hint; chance of winning is 100% in first case and about 65% in the second.

geetar

did this in maths class when i was in school,

we worked it out that for prize to odds of winning ratio,

the monday millions was the best for winning,
the irish lotto weekly draw was second,
and the euromillions was third, despite being the biggest prize.

so if your in it to win it, play the monday millions.

Mark200

3DataModem wrote: »

You have better chance of winning by doing 52 in 1 week than one in each 52 weeks. The difference is tiny, but real.

Think of it like this... do you have a better chance of winning if you did 8145061 lines in one week, or one line over 8145061 weeks?

Hint; chance of winning is 100% in first case and about 65% in the second.

But at the same time, with the second method you also have the opportunity to win it more than once!

Haven't worked out odds though... just floating ideas.

OutlawPete

3DataModem wrote: »

You have better chance of winning by doing 52 in 1 week than one in each 52 weeks. The difference is tiny, but real.

How do you work out that the difference is "tiny".

For every one of the 52 weeks, the odds of winning it are: 8,145,060/1.

For the week you do 52 lines, the odds of winning it are: 156,635/1.

Think of it like this.

Horse race with eight runners.

If you back the eight runners in one race, you are 100% sure of winning.

If you back one horse in eight races, you might never win and the odds will always be 7/1.

seamus

I can explain why Pete is right, but I can't explain the actual mathematics behind it.

Let's for arguments sake say that the odds of winning are 8m to 1 (I don't want to have to keep typing out that number).

If I was to buy 8m lines (all different) tomorrow, I am guaranteed to win. I have bought every combination, so I can't lose.

However, if I was to buy one line per draw for the next 8 million draws, there is a chance that I won't win at all, ever. There is no guarantee that in one of those 8 million draws, the numbers on my ticket and the numbers drawn will match. However, it's plainly obvious that the odds of striking gold at least once are better than 8m to one.

So we can infer that doing 52 lines an on an individual draw is more likely to land you the jackpot than doing a single line on 52 draws.

But I can't produce any maths to verify this...

erictheviking1

Formula for working out Lotto odds is 45x44x43x42x41x40/720
where 720 = 6x5x4x3x2x1= 720

lugha

OutlawPete wrote: »

So, is your thinking that the odds are the same for both then?

Well I was thinking that! But in light of subsequent posts, I am now thinking something else

By my calculations

Buying 52 lines in 1 lotto gives you 1 chance in 156635.8 of winning
Buying 1 line in 52 lotto gives you 1 chance in 156636.3 of winning

yammycat

OutlawPete wrote: »

If you back the eight runners in one race, you are 100% sure of winning.

If you back one horse in eight races, you might never win and the odds will always be 7/1.

if you back a different horse each race you could win 8 times

Bruthal

kippy wrote: »

That is definitely not correct.

Outlawpete looks right to me, he says...

No, if the OP bought 52 lines, his odds of winning the lottery would go from:

8,145,060/1 to 156,635/1.

So its 8,145,060 to 1, divided by 52 to get 156,635 to 1.

If you have to pick a number from 1 to 100, you have a 100 to 1 chance of getting it. Pick 5, and its a 20 to 1 chance.

So you have 8 million combinations to choose from. Pick 52 from them, and its 156,000 to one.

Bruthal

OutlawPete wrote: »

To be honest, I'm not sure how to work out the odds of doing many different lotteries.

Just know that the odds of winning with 52 lines are 156,635/1.

So, is your thinking that the odds are the same for both then?

No i think your right about doing the 52 sets together also, even though the odds seem the same if calcualted.

If you do the 8 million sets in one draw, you now win for certain. If you do it over 8 million seperate draws, you are not certain to win in them 8 million draws.

With 52 sets its practically the same though either way.

yammycat

robbie7730 wrote: »

you are not certain to win in them 8 million draws.

you could win 8 million times though

Bruthal

yammycat wrote: »

you could win 8 million times though

I only seen the horse racing example after i posted my lotto one, the exact same thing:D

yammycat

robbie7730 wrote: »

I only seen the horse racing example after i posted my lotto one, the exact same thing:D

yea I know, I couldn't resist

just-joe

murpho999 wrote: »

Used to do lotto regularly and then one day looked seriously at odds of winning and also read somewhere before that the Lottery is a "voluntary tax on the desparate and stupid" and really had an effect on me and I haven't done it since.

Used the same numbers all the time and checked my numbers and only had 2 match 4 wins totaling about €60 in last 3 years.

Used to do 4 panels with plus in two draws, so that's €16 a week or €832 a year. So last 3 years I would have spent €2496 and won around 60.

Think it makes that quote ring true and glad I don't do it anymore!

I think this is a really interesting thought process. It definitely makes sense, and you do save money by not playing the lotto. However, do you actually notice you're saving anything? Maybe because you spent 16 euros a week, you do. But for example if you only spend 4 euro a week, yeah you could save 52*4= 208 euros a year, but would you really notice it wasn't in your pocket? Probably not when you consider that most people spend all over the place on random things, which cost 4 euros, the best example being a pint.

Yeah, you could have one less pint every time ya went out for a few, and save 4 euros a time which could end up being a small fortune after an extended period of time. But would you really notice?

I guess the right thing to do would be to save the money every week, and then when you have 2496 euro saved up, go and spend it.

But as they say, you have to be in it, to win it!

Agonist

If you work out the probability of winning with one line to 6 decimal places the result is zero. If you do the same calculation for 52 lines you get 0.000006. You are infinitely more likely to win.
It's just another perspective on it but not a very useful one.

Jesus Wept

Just study the numbers.

Overheal

I was serious. scratch cards. the numbers that only show up once on the card? go for those.

lecker Hendl

Overheal wrote: »

I was serious. scratch cards. the numbers that only show up once on the card? go for those.

what are you waffling on about you madman?

JONJO THE MISER

lecker Hendl wrote: »

what are you waffling on about you madman?

Jesus Wept

Keep a spreadsheet of what numbers have come out as it will help you make your selections.

Overheal

lecker Hendl wrote: »

what are you waffling on about you madman?

I would tell you but it the loophole would probably get closed up as fast as when I got high and started harping on about that site that used to mail **** from canada. And now I dont smoke anymore, but still! That was the wrong thing to do.

david

Multiple unique selections in a single draw gives better odds than single unique selections in multiple draws, as each draw is an independent event.

I did attempt to use machine learning to try to predict the main lottery numbers but the 45 ball lotto was only introduced in late 06 giving a very small sample size. There's some evidence that the lottery draw is not completely random. Early indications suggest avoiding choosing balls 6 34 14 16 25 43.

Interestingly, a histogram of balls drawn on Bank Holiday's show a higher proportion of balls <=31 being drawn when compared to 'normal' draws; hence people who pick numbers based on birth dates have a higher chance of winning.

MrThrifty

david wrote: »

Multiple unique selections in a single draw gives better odds than single unique selections in multiple draws, as each draw is an independent event.

Also more commonly referred to as: "Probability has no history". People seem to be missing this point. If you flip a coin two times and it lands on heads both times, then that doesn't make it any more likely it will land on tails if you flip it a third time. Reminds me of these families you see with say 4 children, all of which are boys, and they go having a fifth child in the hope of at last having a little girl!

seamus

MrThrifty wrote: »

Also more commonly referred to as: "Probability has no history". People seem to be missing this point.

Yes, but probability also allows for calculation beforehand of multiple events occuring.

I think what what most people miss is the notion of something being "guaranteed" versus it being "likely". That is, if I propose to flip a coin once, the chances of getting heads are 1/2. If I propose to flip it twice, the odds of getting at least one head are 3/4 (75%). However, if I flip it once and get tails, the odds of getting heads on the next throw remain at 50%. This is the part of probability and randomness that people don't get.

Google appears to suggest that it's binomial probability, which rings bells with me. There's a specific formula for it, and online calculators. Woo.

So, to answer the question, if you do 52 lines in one week, the probability of winning is roughly 1 in 154,000, or 0.0000065
On the other hand, if you do 52 lines over 52 weeks, your odds of winning are
0.0000064999585

So in reality, the odds are so astronomically large that the difference between 52 lines in one day or 52 lines in 52 weeks are negligibly small. But if you want to get technical, 52 lines in one week has a vaguely better chance.

Depressingly enough, online calculators seeming to suggest that if you do one line per draw for 8 million draws, you only have a 63% chance of winning once. Though it's possible those calculators can't work with the figures involved.

johnam

red menace wrote: »

Been thinking about this for a bit,

Would a better lotto system be that all numbers are generated randomly, IE quick pick only.
But once a combination of six numbers has been chosen, that combination is removed from the pool.
It would mean no more sharing of jackpots, maybe it's just the greedy bollix in me

Play millionaire raffle so...because that is what you are proposing

Bruthal

MrThrifty wrote: »

Also more commonly referred to as: "Probability has no history". People seem to be missing this point. If you flip a coin two times and it lands on heads both times, then that doesn't make it any more likely it will land on tails if you flip it a third time. Reminds me of these families you see with say 4 children, all of which are boys, and they go having a fifth child in the hope of at last having a little girl!

Whats funny about that? They have no chance of having a girl if they dont try again.

As for trying multiple number sets in one draw rather than a single set in multiple draws, there is a slightly better chance of multiple sets in the one draw. If you try for example 50 sets in 1 draw, then try the 50 sets but one in each draw, even if one of the 50 sets is drawn, it might not be that set you have in. If you just use a single set in 50 draws, there is the remote possibility of 2 draws having the same numbers and so reducing the chance of winning, although extremely slightly, but more the more draws your in. This is why of you do the 8 million sets in 1 draw, you will certainly win. But if you do either every combination over 8 million draws, or a single set over 8 million draws, you might not win because of the same numbers being drawn more than once at some stage, and a lot of times if 8 million draws were made.

Bruthal

seamus wrote: »

Depressingly enough, online calculators seeming to suggest that if you do one line per draw for 8 million draws, you only have a 63% chance of winning once. Though it's possible those calculators can't work with the figures involved.

I think that is definitely a correct calculation. If 8 million draws are made, the same sets of numbers would appear many times, and not a chance every set would be drawn, thats how you still would not be certain of winning having a set in 8 million draws, but if you had 8 million sets in 1 draw, you would win. It would be like waiting for the number 40 to appear from a draw with 100 numbers. It could well take more than 100 draws to win.

This is whay having 50 sets in 1 draw would be fractionally better than 1 set in 50 draws.

Ghetto Cornetto

Overheal wrote: »

I would tell you but it the loophole would probably get closed up as fast as when I got high and started harping on about that site that used to mail **** from canada. And now I dont smoke anymore, but still! That was the wrong thing to do.

YOU KILLED THE BEST SITE ON THE INTERTUBES!