Peter Schiff (Infamous Libertarian) On Ireland's Economy. [Vid]

UsernameInUse

This guy along with Ron Paul are some of the most credible voices in world politics today - he's written several books and here is a vid of his visit to Ireland. Awesome - check it out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_rF8mCe5xQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YD3fCQn8Hi8

Soldie

Infamous?!

ei.sdraob

If the Chinese are listening to guys like the one on his left, then the West has nothing to worry about they will follow and repeat the same Keynesian mistakes, which they seem already to be doing with a big bubble developing there.

SupaNova

I found a good method of who listen to when it comes to economics is to listen to guys who predicted what was going to happen:

I like Mark Faber for having the most casual manner whilst predicting impending doom. Peter's great, but his constant plugging of his company and his constant blowing of his own trumpet can be grating, but the man always talks sense.

Sand

The man is entitled to toot his own horn a bit. Given the sneering he had to endure on live TV back in 2006-2007, hes remarkably restrained.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

hmmm

Schiff has predicted 20 of the last 2 recessions. It sounds trite but it's true, of course he is going to be right eventually.

SupaNova

Schiff has predicted 20 of the last 2 recessions. It sounds trite but it's true, of course he is going to be right eventually.

He predicted the .com bubble and the housing bubble, can you tell me the other 18 i am unaware of?

Dannyboy83

Fintan the tool criticizes him for being biased and preaching his "faith", then proceeds, as ever, to do that very thing.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Highly Salami

SupaNova wrote: »

He predicted the .com bubble and the housing bubble, can you tell me the other 18 i am unaware of?

Thats because they didn't happen, e.g. the 2002-3 housing crash, the 2004-5 stock market crash, the 1994-5 depression etc. etc.

SupaNova

Thats because they didn't happen, e.g. the 2002-3 housing crash, the 2004-5 stock market crash, the 1994-5 depression etc. etc

Where does he predict these?

Eliot Rosewater

It's interesting following through on the predictions.

On the video Sand linked the guy recommends investing in Washington Mutual, which subsequently collapsed. He also predicted the Dow Jones would hit 16k; it went the other way.

And Merrill-Lynch didn't turn out so great either.

Gold has, long term, increased above and beyond Schiff's predictions.

(Assuming I understand everything here.)

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

ei.sdraob

Why are people concentrating on what he predicted and therefore going offtopic? this is a politics forum

the most interesting part of the video was the description of people who rise into government advisory positions are the economists who align with the politicians needs to promise things and spend and spend.

the "Yes Mister Minister" types, which as seen here in Ireland with the recent revelations about the DoF is what happened here

Byron85

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

And neither side recognises the ridiculousness of both concepts.

ei.sdraob

Byron85 wrote: »

And neither side recognises the ridiculousness of both concepts.

A "free" market (i personally prefer the name "competitive" market since the word free has been abused to death and lost all meaning) is an example of a complex system which boils down to small actors pursuing their own profit aims in a competitive environment with some of the actors coming together in cooperation

Hey doesnt that sound alot like how the cells in our bodies work :P
Are we humans a ridiculous concept?

karma_

ei.sdraob wrote: »

A "free" market (i personally prefer the name "competitive" market since the word free has been abused to death and lost all meaning) is an example of a complex system which boils down to small actors pursuing their own profit aims in a competitive environment with some of the actors coming together in cooperation

Hey doesnt that sound alot like how the cells in our bodies work :P
Are we humans a ridiculous concept?

If the cells in our bodies acted like that we would die in a very short space of time.

ei.sdraob

karma_ wrote: »

If the cells in our bodies acted like that we would die in a very short space of time.

the cells in our bodies do work on the information contained within the DNA in their nucleus and external stimuli
sometimes on their own and most of often in cooperation with other cells

you disagree?

Anonymous1987

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Hey doesnt that sound alot like how the cells in our bodies work :P
Are we humans a ridiculous concept?

I think you'll find our bodies work more like corporatism

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

karma_

ei.sdraob wrote: »

the cells in our bodies do work on the information contained within the DNA in their nucleus and external stimuli
sometimes on their own and most of often in cooperation with other cells

you disagree?

I disagree that the cells in our body act in any manner similar to a free market.

Valmont

What is it with you ideologues constantly evangelising about your free market? We all know that the rational and intelligent way to go about things is to take each situation as it is and choose the most practical and expedient and pragmatic and common-sense, and pragmatic approach; not some blind adherence to a greedy, self-serving elitist creed that has ruined the world economy.

Just, you know, to get it out of the way.

It's good to see Schiff getting some comeuppance to be honest, he didn't deserve some of the grilling he's had in the past.

steelcityblues

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

I recall on my college media course, that the only economic books listed in the recommended list for an assignment were all with a Keynesian slant.

Pretty sure that attitude has spread to a lot of academic institutions here too!

mike65

Valmont wrote: »

It's good to see Schiff getting some comeuppance to be honest, he didn't deserve some of the grilling he's had in the past.

Eh not that I think, vindication might be a more appropriate term

Valmont

steelcityblues wrote: »

Pretty sure that attitude has spread to a lot of academic institutions here too!

I visited the university library here in York a short while ago to peruse some literature on Austrian Economics and libertarianism. The aforementioned section spanned a two foot wide and seven foot tall section of shelf and after looking at the 10 copies of Human Action (none of which were withdrawn, I might add), I felt glad to be part of a university with such diversity in their political and economic book sections.

That was until I turned around and saw that Marx has his own entire shelf unit, around 30 feet long, on both sides. Keynes is also in possession of a vast swathe of library floor. I did some further poking about and found that only The Road to Serfdom and Anarchy, State, and Utopia are core course readings, and even then, only at undergraduate level.

Interesting to say the least!

Liam Byrne

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Both have let us down dismally, so there's no such belief in either.

The difference is that we have had a say in replacing the Government, and hopefully they'll be more interested in serving the people than these "free markets".

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Valmont

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

I think this is falling on deaf ears. I've read all about Mises' explanation of the "creep" of socialism but we are definitely living in the era of the middle-ground, "pragmatic", mixed economy. Many posters here on boards who have conceded that socialism cannot work subscribe to a model of social democracy where we use the market to pay (supposedly) for the humanitarian aspects of the state. The mixed-economy proponents are definitely winning the battle of ideas, and the minds of their citizenries. Sweden and Finland I often see cited as the perfect examples of social democracy and I must say, I'm finding it hard to pick these things apart!

The only definite critique I can find is that to condone the current mixed-economy system is admit that you are willing to have booms and busts forever more. It doesn't matter who is elected, as long as the institutions of the government remain as they are, we are condemned to repeat this little cycle. Or so the Austrians would have us believe anyway.

ei.sdraob

Dont despair Valmont, The Road to Serfdom hit #1 stop on amazon and stayed on bestseller list for some time

there yet is hope

hmmm

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Why are people concentrating on what he predicted and therefore going offtopic? this is a politics forum

Because he is being quoted by the OP as some sort of guru.

Here is Schiff's predictions for 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDXyjv6xTbU

Unemployment higher - wrong
Interest rates higher - wrong
Inflation higher - correct (but that was due to a recovering economy)
US economy in worse shape - wrong
Foreign stocks to outperform US stocks - wrong
Dollar will end year lower - wrong (about the same)

UsernameInUse

Valmont wrote: »

I visited the university library here in York a short while ago to peruse some literature on Austrian Economics and libertarianism. The aforementioned section spanned a two foot wide and seven foot tall section of shelf and after looking at the 10 copies of Human Action (none of which were withdrawn, I might add), I felt glad to be part of a university with such diversity in their political and economic book sections.

That was until I turned around and saw that Marx has his own entire shelf unit, around 30 feet long, on both sides. Keynes is also in possession of a vast swathe of library floor. I did some further poking about and found that only The Road to Serfdom and Anarchy, State, and Utopia are core course readings, and even then, only at undergraduate level.

Interesting to say the least!

I recently went into Easons on O'Connell Street in Dublin.

I thought I'd pick up a copy of Free To Choose by Milton Friedman - they didn't have it.
"Anything by Peter Schiff?"....."Nothing".
Jacob Hornberger? - No..
David Neumark? - Nada...
William L. Wascher? - Who..
Tom G. Palmer? - Oh now, come on...
David Boaz? - Nope...
Charles Murray? - Next?
Jeffrey Miron? - "How about you just try the economic section, you might find something you like..."

"Okay, have you got [enter some braincell killing celebrity rubbish here]?"
"Right here, sir...".

I tellz ya - they iz watching us...! :P

steelcityblues

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Both have let us down dismally, so there's no such belief in either.

The difference is that we have had a say in replacing the Government, and hopefully they'll be more interested in serving the people than these "free markets".

That's why you believe in FG. :rolleyes:

SupaNova

Here is Schiff's predictions for 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDXyjv6xTbU

Unemployment higher - wrong
Interest rates higher - wrong
Inflation higher - correct (but that was due to a recovering economy)
US economy in worse shape - wrong
Foreign stocks to outperform US stocks - wrong
Dollar will end year lower - wrong (about the same)

-I've seen some economists suggest unemployment is closer to 20%
-Due to interference keeping rates artificially low
-Inflation is higher because they are expanding the money supply, not because of a recovering economy(lol at suggesting a recovering economy)
-The US economy is in horrible shape
-Stocks may even rise in dollar value if they are flooding the economy with cheap money, if you measure stocks in terms of golds they have gone down, I haven't seen any comparisons between US and foreign stocks so can't comment
-It depends what you are measuring the dollar against

The video you linked has pretty sound advice and sound analysis of the economy.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

meditraitor

I love the way fake libertarians always seem to rally to the side of any old eejit who get a prediction right and then when they are proven wrong say " he's not really a libertarian in the real sense of the word" watch this space

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

meditraitor

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

The idea that "highly accurate short range forcasts" are difficult proves schiff to be a charlatan......

We are not dead, long live the long lived

meditraitor

He is a waffler........... end off

And the rest



Benjamin Anderson
William L. Anderson
William Barnett II[1]
Walter Block
Peter J. Boettke[2]
Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk
Gene Callahan
Tony Carilli[3]
John M. Cobin
Dan D'Amico [4]
Gregory Dempster[3]
Richard Ebeling
Karel Engliš[5]
Marc Faber
Frank Fetter
Douglas E. French
[edit]G-Q
Roger Garrison
David Gordon
Gottfried von Haberler
Friedrich Hayek
Henry Hazlitt
Jeffrey M. Herbener
Hans-Hermann Hoppe
Jörg Guido Hülsmann
William Harold Hutt
D. W. MacKenzie
Israel Kirzner
Peter G. Klein
Ludwig Lachmann
Don Lavoie
Henri Lepage
Thomas DiLorenzo
Fritz Machlup
Carl Menger
Ludwig von Mises
Dr. Gary North
Frederick Nymeyer
Ernest C. Pasour
[edit]R-Z
Ralph Raico
George Reisman
Kurt Richebächer
Jim Rogers
Murray Rothbard
Paul Rosenstein-Rodan
Joseph Salerno
Pascal Salin
Peter Schiff
Joseph Schumpeter
Hans F. Sennholz
Josef Šíma
Jesus Huerta de Soto
Mark Thornton
Deborah Walker[6]
Friedrich von Wieser
Thomas Woods


fools, any drunken idiot could recognize that




The power of the idiot may just be my next thesis

SupaNova

He is a waffler........... end off

And the rest

Care to expand or just partake in pointless slander? On what particular point do you disagree with him on?

whiteonion

Peter Schiff was right about the dollar, it has fallen. Maybe not against the Euro but the dollar has fallen against many currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollar. If you measure the value of dollar against agricultural commodities, copper and precious metals it also has fallen in value.

UsernameInUse

meditraitor wrote: »

I love the way fake libertarians always seem to rally to the side of any old eejit who get a prediction right and then when they are proven wrong say " he's not really a libertarian in the real sense of the word" watch this space

Libertarian or libertarian?

The two are not the same.

hmmm

SupaNova wrote: »

-I've seen some economists suggest unemployment is closer to 20%

Let's try and stick to actual figures rather than suggestions.

-Due to interference keeping rates artificially low

Errr that's what a central bank does

-Inflation is higher because they are expanding the money supply, not because of a recovering economy(lol at suggesting a recovering economy)

Actually most of the US inflation is imported commodity driven inflation.

-The US economy is in horrible shape

Again, the official figures disagree.

-Stocks may even rise in dollar value if they are flooding the economy with cheap money, if you measure stocks in terms of golds they have gone down,

I'm afraid not

I haven't seen any comparisons between US and foreign stocks so can't comment

This is pretty basic information.

-It depends what you are measuring the dollar against

I'm measuring it against the major currencies of the world. What are you measuring it against - "golds"?

SupaNova

Errr that's what a central bank does

That's why they are part of the problem.

Actually most of the US inflation is imported commodity driven inflation.

Wrong The Federal Reserve are the cause.

Again, the official figures disagree.

Lol show me these official figures that suggest a good US economy.

I'm afraid not

Any reasons why you think not?

I'm measuring it against the major currencies of the world. What are you measuring it against - "golds"?

Looking at longer term trends(not just the last year), the dollar has lost value to just about every major currency. The Euro, the AUD, The Swiss Franc, The Yuan. Shall I go on!

Finnbar01

And who brought wholescale slavery to the America's Fintan? And who may I ask, who slaughtered the natives as well?

Going by the logic of Fintan and the South Korean guy, fiat currencies caused the bloodiest era of human history... the 20th century.

Yitzhak Rabin

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

What kind of timeframe was he talking about for this? Seems fairly unrealistic. What was he basing it on? The US going into hyperinflation from printing too much currency?

johnnyskeleton

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Can you be a bit more specific? I don't see how criticisms of his bearish outlook then has even the remotest connection to libertarian arguments of now. In fact, nowhere in those could I see any suggestion of what he attributes the impending recession to, although I have yet to hear any libertarian suggest that the meltdown of the U.S. financials was due to anything other than the reckless off balance sheet trading in unregulated financial products.

johnnyskeleton

Byron85 wrote: »

And neither side recognises the ridiculousness of both concepts.

Nor, it seems, do they recognise that people can have views in between the two extremes of libertarianism and totalitarianism.

johnnyskeleton

Valmont wrote: »

The only definite critique I can find is that to condone the current mixed-economy system is admit that you are willing to have booms and busts forever more. It doesn't matter who is elected, as long as the institutions of the government remain as they are, we are condemned to repeat this little cycle. Or so the Austrians would have us believe anyway.

Surely its the other way around and a completely free market has a constant boom bust cycle while a well balanced economy will suffer less severe swings. People who call themselves libertarians are really making hay at the moment citing the failure of keynesian economics, but what they fail to realise is that what we have had from the late 90s to the mid 00s is the opposite of keynesian economics - spending during a boom.

SupaNova

Surely its the other way around and a completely free market has a constant boom bust cycle while a well balanced economy will suffer less severe swings.

The boom bust cycle was swelled by governments. The housing boom in this country was Fianna Fails biggest achievement until it bust and people were forced to come to their senses.

People who call themselves libertarians are really making hay at the moment citing the failure of keynesian economics, but what they fail to realise is that what we have had from the late 90s to the mid 00s is the opposite of keynesian economics - spending during a boom.

I have given up on the idea of Libertarianism or free markets given that we have a monopoly in money creation. Schiff doesn't blame keynesian economics for the crash, but cites it as a solution that will create a bigger problem down the road, which will probably be in the form of a sovereign debt crisis.

Spending during a boom does not mean we did not have keynesian economics. If you have narrowed keynesian economics down to being about when you are allowed to spend, you should learn more about keynesian economics.