Giant Moon Rising (19th March)

irish1967

Some interesting weather may be on the way with the help of a lunar perigee.

the New England hurricane in 1938, or the Hunter Valley floods of 1955. Both happened during lunar perigrees.Cyclone Tracy in 1974 and Hurricance Katrina in 2005 also coincided with SuperMoons, or at least, very close to.

http://www.news.com.au/technology/moonageddon-on-march-19-our-nearest-neighbour-will-be-biggest-and-closest-since-1993/story-e6frfro0-1226015795421#ixzz1FgN

Pangea

Interesting.
On a similar note millions of years ago the moon was much closer to the earth than it is now and looked huge from earth. What a sight it must have been. (Not that anyone was around to witness it)

Steopo

MT has been issuing storm potential for around that time since back in Dec (have a birthday on 20th so stuck in my head). I guess his rationale is also strongly linked to lunar perigee

Attached article with a US slant gives some more background

http://beforeitsnews.com/story/352/094/Extreme_Lunar_Perigee_March_19,_2011_Means_More_Storms_and_Flooding.html

Aiel

There was an article on the Accuweather site recently which mentioned this.It said there was a recent full Moon relatively quite close to the Earth a few weeks ago around the time of the earthquake in Christchurch.It said a few earthquakes have coincided with the moon coming close to us in recent times,interesting stuff.

wildefalcon

I suppose having a large ball of rock in close orbit, that is capable of raising the sea level 8 feet, might have some effect on the rest of the planet?

Shouldn't be dismissed out of hand!

M.T. Cranium

My research model points to this time frame for storm development (deeper low pressure at least) not so much because of the full moon being at perigee, but because it picks up significant extra energy peaks from an independent set of events in the model that occur within 24 hours of the full moon. This secondary set has proven more energetic all winter in research observations over a wide area of the northern hemisphere. There's an even closer overlap of the two energy sets with the 3 April new moon.

According to my research and that of one or two others who have looked at data sets, the actual contribution of lunar perigee is to swell up high pressure slightly against background values, and we don't find a contribution to storminess beyond that of the already existing index value from the lunar syzygy (full or new moon). So the distance of the Moon from the earth does not seem to be as significant a factor as the alignment of the Moon with other gravitational energy sources. I have discussed this quite extensively on another thread and in various other weather forums.

Noting that the current GFS 11-12 day models show fairly deep low pressure between Ireland and Iceland, but the stronger winds would remain well offshore on these maps. We may see an upgrade of that potential at least for northwest parts of Ireland as the models pick up more reliable signals. Eventually I think the storm track will turn out to be fairly close to Donegal and drop further south by the 20th, and the outcome of this energy peak is likely to be a two-part storm with lows linked together and passing about 36h apart, the first one running north of Donegal but the second possibly hitting some part of Ireland.

honerbright

Aiel wrote: »

There was an article on the Accuweather site recently which mentioned this.It said there was a recent full Moon relatively quite close to the Earth a few weeks ago around the time of the earthquake in Christchurch.It said a few earthquakes have coincided with the moon coming close to us in recent times,interesting stuff.

Funny you mention the Christchuch earthquake.. I found this article when the earthquake there happened, this guy apparently predicted that quake by something to do with the sun. Anyway, this was also mentioned:
During the interview with Lush he said the next big quake would come March 20 in Christchurch, along the east-west fault-line in Marlborough and Canterbury.

DominoDub

and now Japan !:eek:

ch750536

On February 14, 2011 Mr Ring made this tweet: “Potential earthquake time for the planet between 15th-25th, especially 18th for Christchurch, +/- about 3 days.” Short... and sharp.

The 6.3 magnitude quake struck four days from his 18th assessment, just one day outside his margin of error. For some, the coincidence and that forecast - despite not being absolutely precise - are just too accurate to discount. Very close, it seems, is enough for a little eyebrow raising. However, on the other side of the fence (and there's plenty of opinion to be found on the internet) his delusional ramblings have no basis beyond the minds of the mad.
Last September though, Ken Ring had said that another big one was on its way, again in a tweet: "The Christchurch earthquake was predictable. And there's another coming in 6 months."

That was after he had spotted the first September 4 quake, and told - “You’ll be reading about floods and winds and earthquakes and snow over the next week, particularly in the South Island”.

Then on Marcus Lush's Radio Live programme he brought it up again. “There's another coming in 6 months.” He went into great detail.

dsmythy

Saw one mini-article on a possible link between the moon situation and the earthquake in Japan. Surprised the media didn't try make more of a fuss about it in their hunt for sensation.

John mac

From Prof Brian Cox via Twitter this am.

Stop asking about the bloody so-called Megamoon. It has nob all to do with anything!

And this

And did I mention that 2012 is utter nonsense as well? It's drivel.

mike65

Brian knows.

Wine Goddess

After all Brian sang "things....can only get better......and he was wrong then too!

fizzycyst

Wine Goddess wrote: »

After all Brian sang "things....can only get better......and he was wrong then too!

omg, random fact of the day, never knew that:)

M.T. Cranium

I've done a very extensive check of major earthquake and volcanic dates against lunar orbital variables and other astronomical data. The major results of that are as follows:

-- some increased tendency for earthquakes to occur in spring or autumn in each hemisphere, but without much correlation to lunar orbital variables;

-- an increased frequency of winter earthquakes near full moon dates, which makes sense from the point of view of greater tidal stresses in the oceans

-- volcanic eruptions more likely in years of low to moderate but ascending lunar declination ... as there is a declination cycle of 18.6 years, that corresponds to a five year period that will next occur 2014-2018 ... this is by no means exclusionary but may be explained by greater tidal stresses on the crust when the Moon stays closer to our equator at all times in its orbit.

-- indications that planetary alignments (that include the earth) may be times of heightened earthquake activity, and one would expect these to peak when the Moon moved through that alignment axis, which from the geometry of the solar system tends to be more likely within 3-4 days of new or full moon although not exclusive to those time windows.

I don't believe that the "supermoon" is exceptionally important as a peak of gravitational or tidal stress, given the small range of differences in lunar perigee distances each month (not to mention each year) ... but what is perhaps more significant at present is that the earth is approaching the centre of mass of the solar system that is always aligned close to the straight line between Jupiter and Saturn, but weighted towards the Sun when this line is any great distance from the Sun. Second order variations from Uranus, Neptune, Venus and earth at present tend to pull this line slightly further ahead of the earth (I calculate that the earth will move through the axis around 5-6 April), but the main point is that we move through the J-S axis (which is also right through the Sun at this point) around 3 April when there is also a new moon. Although the Moon is then at apogee, I'm speculating (with no claims of predictive ability on this) that if we don't get another major quake around this full moon at perigee (when the J-S axis lies ahead of the earth) we may well see one around the new moon which is timed for 3 April 1433 UT (GMT).

Note that we then have Saturn in opposition April 4 00z and Jupiter in conjunction April 6 (15z). From that set of dates and the fact that Jupiter is moving 2.5 times as fast as Saturn, you can see that the J-S axis passed very close to the Sun in February and earlier this month, and is now drifting forward with faster, more massive and closer to centre Jupiter so that it now lies like this (schematic) ...

Note the following features from this solar system schematic.

1. The inset box shows the earth-moon system at greater scale, and the progress of the Moon from 12th (Japan earthquake 06z UTC) to 16th (today for most readers).

2. The dark blue line is the J-S axis which has slowly moved through the Sun (in three dimensions it still came very close) and is net moving up in the diagram as Jupiter moves faster than Saturn. All planets move counter-clockwise in this view from above the sun's north pole. The red line is the more complex weighted balance of solar system mass, generally lower on the diagram because Uranus, Neptune, Mars, and Venus are all offset in that direction while Mercury recently moved through the axis and is like the earth on the upper side of the diagram at present.

3. Note that this complex mass balance is very close to the Sun and that Mercury was moving through it recently ... when the Japan earthquake struck ... meanwhile the Moon has been tugging against the overall gravitational force on the earth towards the mass axis which lies slightly ahead of our current orbital position. At the time of the Japan earthquake, the Moon was acting as a brake on this forward vectored second-order gravitational force.

4. Note also that the actual centre of mass considered in terms of angular momentum (as opposed to the mass axis) is somewhere over towards Jupiter when you consider all masses, and probably somewhere about 0.2-0.3 AU from the Sun or further, somewhere towards Mercury's orbit, so recently Mercury was rather close to this solar system centre of mass.

5. All of this suggests another period of increased stress in the period June to July when Venus moves through the axis, Mars is much closer to it also, and then Mercury moves through it again around end of May. I will work on some more precise dates for these events of gravitational stress but for now, the dates of interest would be 19-21 March and then 2-6 April.

M.T. Cranium

Okay, I have sketched out the situation for 1-5 April as earth and Moon move through the various mass axes of the solar system.

In the diagram, you'll see (not to scale) the earth moving along with the Moon on an inside track. Although the Moon would appear to be circling the earth in the opposite direction from a stationary perspective, from this moving perspective it is merely moving slower than the earth. Dots show each half-day position and the numbers show dates at 1200 UT.

You'll find various lines depicting the earth-sun line (with the Moon on it) for new moon on 3 April (in 3-d the moon would be about 30,000 km above the plane so, no eclipse);

the J-S mass axis, which connects Jupiter and Saturn ... this would miss the Sun by 3 April by about 0.05 AU, a distance increasing slightly every day.

the "SSm" or solar system mass axis, which factors in other planets and which appears to run pretty much from Saturn through the Sun then out between planets Jupiter and Uranus.

the opposition line for Saturn, at 00z 4 April, just ahead of the earth's depicted position

the extension of the conjunction line for Jupiter, which extends to earth's position on 6 April (just beyond the bottom edge of the diagram).

Check each of these elements out and then note how the Moon moves through each mass axis at a slightly different time relative to the earth ... for the lines before new moon, it hits earlier ... for the lines after new moon, it hits later (because it's moving slower when inside the earth's orbit).

The overall analysis is that the earth-moon system will hit a series of four gravitational axes very close together around the 3 April new moon, starting around 2 April, but with perhaps the biggest "bow shock" coming around 4-7 hours after the new moon so around 19-22 GMT on 3 April. The final shock comes around 6 April.

When the full moon is at perigee on 19 March, all of these mass axes will be in similar locations so you can judge from this diagram how far away the earth-moon system will be at that time from all of them (except the earth-sun line, that will of course go through the earth and Moon, by definition it is always travelling with the earth but the earth-Moon mass balance is slightly different and offset towards the Moon, probably not beyond the earth's surface at any point).

Now would the period between 19 March and 3 April be quiet then? Probably not, as the Moon would at that point be ahead of the earth on its wavy orbital path after the full moon. This strikes me as a time of strong stresses on the crust with the earth-Moon mass balance out towards the forward edge of the earth in orbit (near its morning terminator).

Now considering the Japan earthquake which occurred around 2:40 p.m. local time (I since realized the time was 06z on 11 March, not 12 March). With the Moon trailing the earth and moving towards the outside track, it would have been overhead the North Pacific Ocean around Guam not too far east of Japan at earthquake time.

The problem for prediction is to synthesize all of these factors with known geological stresses underway, as all parts of the globe rotate through these tidal stress zones (in three dimensional terms, they either rotate through cones or close to them) every 24h 50 min due to the Moon's orbital motion.

up for anything

A question for you, MT, from elsewhere:

Why on earth would there be any difference if the moon is half or full?
The mass is still there isnt it? And it is the mass which is creating gravity pull. Would the extra sunshine really cause any effect? And if so wouldnt that extra gravity be of insignificant level?

Esk1m0

Thanks

Penfailed

Wine Goddess wrote: »

After all Brian sang "things....can only get better......and he was wrong then too!

No...he didn't. Peter Cunnagh did. Brian Cox played keyboards

M.T. Cranium

Re: the question above about lunar phase and why does it matter?

My weather research suggests that the Moon is interacting with gravitational waves from other sources including the Sun but also including the galactic equator, the larger planets and some stars that are both massive and closer to earth than most in our galaxy. The formula that most successfully fits the results of this study suggests that the process is non-Newtonian and that the galactic equator is actually a stronger source than the Sun, while the planets (esp Jupiter and Saturn) have significant fractions compared to their negligible Newtonian fractions of the Sun's potential. The equation is basically sixth root of (mass/distance) instead of the Newtonian mass/distance (squared) or mass/distance for energy.

Having said that, lunar phase is not so important as lunar alignment and while this may sound astrological, it is not meant to be taken that way, but as a new physical process that is perhaps the result of the gravitational waves being searched for by conventional physics since about 1960. My research shows that weather events may be produced by these wave interactions as the Moon essentially sets up an interference pattern in the earth's atmosphere by getting in the way of these waves. The implications for earthquakes is apparent, but even so, the actual triggering mechanism of a major earthquake has a quasi-random foundation in that plates are continually moving, stresses are building up over longer time scales than the monthly cycle of the Moon, and there is no really strong physical basis for saying that any given amount of external stress will force a release, possibly in some cases the trigger could be reached before the event's peak of energy, so I would only expect this approach to show low-level statistical correlations at best.

With volcanic eruptions, the cycles are even longer and timing may only show correlations to long-term lunar orbital variables as a result.

Getting back to the supermoon event, it strikes me as significant that the Moon will be moving south across the equator at that point in its orbit (at around 8-10 deg south by full moon) and at 19z will be over the Indian Ocean. Tidal forces or direct hits of gravitational wave interactions with the best aligned sources would hit either there or the antipodean point which would be central America roughly. So I would look for greater earthquake potential in places like the South Indian Ocean, the Himalayas, Iran, or central America into Colombia around the 19th. For the 3 April event, the Moon would be overhead near the Cape Verde Islands at 1433z and moving north in its orbit, which suggests that the Med or northwest Africa might be at greater risk, also the antipodean point being approximately Fiji or New Caledonia suggests Papua-New Guinea, Indonesia, Phillipines area at risk.

Obviously the overhead Moon factor is not precise as major earthquakes happen well north and south of the Moon's declination range, but more frequently near declination maxima.

There's no way to give precise "odds" but I would think it must be around a 50-50 proposition that there will be another major earthquake in this time frame of now to mid-April.

up for anything

A comment on the content of your last post. Not mine though. I'm kind of lost at this stage.

“…Having said that, lunar phase is not so important as lunar alignment and while this may sound astrological, it is not meant to be taken that way…”

Too bad. It would have made more sense if it was meant that way.

See, there is a direct correlation between Lunar phase and Solar separation angle (alignment). Personally, I would interpret that as a rather large error in the argument.

http://i53.tinypic.com/2e1dnus.png

dsmythy

Interesting stuff MT. I shall be looking out over the next 36 hours or so for possible precursor quakes 5.5+ or so in the regions you pinpointed for the 19th. A 5.3 in Chile and 5.4 in the Caribbean in the last 24 hours either side of the South American region specified perhaps of some minor interest with regards activity.

M.T. Cranium

Sorry I phrased that in a rather confusing way (the quote above is also confusing because only the first part of it is from my post).

What I meant to say was that lunar phase only indicates alignment with the Sun but in fact alignment with various other gravitational sources, in particular the galactic equator, which is independent of phase over all time samples, but dependent on phase at given time of year in some cases, seems more significant.

And that's what I didn't mean to be taken in an astrological sense, as in "things line up and for no known reason there is an effect," rather, "things line up and therefore the Moon is capable of triggering an effect as it moves through propagating waves."

Whether the physics of that are right or wrong, the main problem would be proving such, visualizing it is no more difficult than sketching out position diagrams and learning the different time scales of the lunar orbit.

Which are, by the way, N Max to N Max (galactic and fixed star alignments) have a period of 27.32 days

Full and new moons have periods of 29.53 days

Perigee to perigee is about 27.55 days

Alignments with Jupiter occur every 27.5 days, and with Saturn every 27.4 days (approximately), with Mars more like 28.0 days.

As you can see, there will be all kinds of different cycles of stronger and weaker events due to perigee alone, then there is a cycle of declination that takes 18.6 years, and a cycle of lunar latitude that causes the 18.6 year cycle which takes 27.21 days. The nodes of the lunar orbit (where it crosses the ecliptic plane) move back around the circle gradually so the Moon hits them a little earlier each "sidereal month" (the 27.32 day cycle) which is why the latitude cycle is 27.21 days. After 18.6 years, the cycle is back to where it began the loop.

What this all means is that the Moon can be as far from Jupiter as 7 deg at closest approach, despite the fact that Jupiter stays within 2 deg of the ecliptic plane. The Moon has a range of 5 deg north and south. One of the strange things about the Moon's orbit is that unlike almost all other solar system satellites, it travels in the ecliptic plane and not in the equatorial plane of its planet.

fizzycyst

Thanks for the explanation MT, very in informative

Relevant

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BmEGm-mraE

M.T. Cranium

On a lighter note, I've written a song about the supermoon, the tune is very simple (just make one up) ...

Supermoon, supermoon,

Hope it comes and goes real soon,

Supermoon, supermoon,

here's my supermoon. . . .

Standing with my back to you,

I bend down, had a few,

take my pants and off they go,

there's the supermoon.

Supermoon, see it soon,

fear it for this song I croon,

all my victims shall be strewn

around the effin toon.

(somehow I feel that the Irish might handle this song better than most)

up for anything

Earthquake predicted for California this Saturday!

Why does no one ever predict good news any more?

up for anything

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Sorry I phrased that in a rather confusing way (the quote above is also confusing because only the first part of it is from my post).

Sorry, my fault. I meant to separate out your quote and his comment. Apologies.

cherryghost

up for anything wrote: »

Earthquake predicted for California this Saturday!

Why does no one ever predict good news any more?

Christ :rolleyes:

Steopo

My latest scientific research suggests lunar cycles are linked to loss of sanity with evidence of a strong correlation between full moons and increase in mooning & singing of looney tunes from normally sane individuals

Pangea

Dangerous tides in Donegal this weekend


A warning is being issued to those intending to travel to beaches around Donegal this weekend.

Particularly high tides are expected, especially at Rossnowlagh and Streedagh beaches.

Motorists are urged not to park on or near the beaches as the tides move much faster when at a higher level.

Pete Craig from the Bundoran Surf Co. has this advice.


http://oceanfm.ie/article/Dangerous-tides-in-Donegal-this-weekend/

redsteveireland

It doesn't look like there is much chance in seeing it this evening, maybe much later in the night if there is some clearing.