Bailout Referendum, what way would you vote?

erictheviking1

I would vote no. Defaulting would make no difference to most people's lives. Most people are already in the ****!

whiteonion

I would vote for a default. The public should not have to assume responsibility for private debt. The Western world is a society with private profits and socialised losses. It's disgusting.

edwinkane

I don't think anyone who would vote for a default has through through the consequences.

ei.sdraob

edwinkane wrote: »

I don't think anyone who would vote for a default has through through the consequences.

which are what exactly?

edwinkane

ei.sdraob wrote: »

which are what exactly?

The most obvious one is how the Irish government will continue to pay it's bills. Currently it is depending on the kindness of strangers to borrow €20 billion per annum just to continue to pay the doctors and nurses and teachers and themselves. Who is going to keep lending Ireland that sort of money immediately after a default?

The most obvious consequence of that is huge redundancies in the public sector and having to slash almost 40% government spending so the governments cheques don't start bouncing. That, in effect, will add to the governemnts social security bill, and the whole spiral downwards would not be pretty.

Nody

ei.sdraob wrote: »

which are what exactly?

Oh a few things coming to mind would be:

• Instant balance on budget (cuts in Social wellfare, dole, benefits etc.) due to no loans available
• Removal of a majority of loaning facilities for domestic users (i.e. small companies, private users etc.) due to no banks (existing once likely to crash rapidly and new once will take a while to set up)
• Loss of savings (banks crashed, country has no money to fulfill the loan guarantee in short term)
• Removal of any money for larger investments for roads, buildings etc. by the government (and the majority of private companies)
• The rush of capital leaving the country (at the hint of the default may come deeping the above effects)
• The losses incurred on Irish pension funds and similar functions (reducing even further the benefits)

The above is assuming some form of one sided default though; structured default would still have some of the above but not as harshly.

ei.sdraob

Nody wrote: »

[*]Instant balance on budget (cuts in Social wellfare, dole, benefits etc.) due to no loans available

Excellent

Nody wrote: »

[*]Removal of a majority of loaning facilities for domestic users (i.e. small companies, private users etc.) due to no banks (existing once likely to crash rapidly and new once will take a while to set up)
.

already happened

Nody wrote: »

[*]Loss of savings (banks crashed, country has no money to fulfill the loan guarantee in short term)

debatable, points at Iceland

Nody wrote: »

[*]Removal of any money for larger investments for roads, buildings etc. by the government (and the majority of private companies).

already happened

Nody wrote: »

[*]The rush of capital leaving the country (at the hint of the default may come deeping the above effects)

already happened/happening

Nody wrote: »

[*]The losses incurred on Irish pension funds and similar functions (reducing even further the benefits)

already happened, most pension funds have made huge losses, our own pension piggy bank is gone

Nody wrote: »

The above is assuming some form of one sided default though; structured default would still have some of the above but not as harshly.

It is unlikely we will default on eveything, you like others keep mixing public debt with bank debt

it is the later that is the main problem now, as the former will have no choice but to come in line sooner or later.

edwinkane

If you think the scale of what you say has "already happened" can't get any worse, then you are, sadly, mistaken.

You don't say where the irish government will find the €20 billion per annum it needs to make sure its cheques don't start to bounce? Any ideas who might lend Ireland €20 billion per annum when it can't pay its existing debts?

ei.sdraob

edwinkane wrote: »

You don't say where the irish government will find the €20 billion per annum it needs to make sure its cheques don't start to bounce? Any ideas who might lend Ireland €20 billion per annum when it can't pay its existing debts?

Nowhere, we endup with the cuts we should have made 2 years ago overnight.

we are 45 months into this recession, the longer we take with cuts the larger the debts grow, the time for cuts was yesterday.

Nody

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Nowhere, we endup with the cuts we should have made 2 years ago overnight.

we are 45 months into this recession, the longer we take with cuts the larger the debts grow, the time for cuts was yesterday.

Which would be politicial suicide (to default due to the follow up effects, talking only the 20 Bil of the budget here; not the rolling loans from before) in the next GE sadly

What would happen is FF/FG/SF/<insert party of choice> would promise green lands and lush benefits again and then go on another drunk spending spree riding on the discontent from the electorate for doing the right thing and things are back on square 1.

edwinkane

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Nowhere, we endup with the cuts we should have made 2 years ago overnight.

we are 45 months into this recession, the longer we take with cuts the larger the debts grow, the time for cuts was yesterday.

I don't disagree, but slashing €20 billion off government spending is going to be incredibly painful and is not consequence free. I hope ireland learns the lessons from this, but suspect it get back to the government borrowing to pay its bills as a normal way of governing in the future.

Euroland

I would definitely vote against the current bailout. We either default on the bank debt or have to restructure it at 95% haircut.

aftermn

Scofflaw wrote: »

Er, we need the money, so voting No to the money is pretty stupid. And however "arrogant" those quotes can be made to sound, they're factually correct - the deal is negotiable only within the limits agreed. What part of "IMF programme" do people not understand?

cordially,
Scofflaw

I am loath to disagree with scofflaw who has educated me on many issues. But is not democracy the will of the people? Stupid or not. Is not our Government required to represent our people?, stupid or not. Are those people allowed to choose the 'stupid' course, or is there some higher power entitled to prevent such a decision?

Following the 'programme' will be difficult. Refusing to do so will be more difficult. But we, as a people, are entitled to chose the latter if we so desire.

Scofflaw

aftermn wrote: »

I am loath to disagree with scofflaw who has educated me on many issues. But is not democracy the will of the people? Stupid or not. Is not our Government required to represent our people?, stupid or not. Are those people allowed to choose the 'stupid' course, or is there some higher power entitled to prevent such a decision?

The people can certainly choose the stupid option - indeed, people regularly do so. One can vote against gravity - or evolution. But the vote doesn't change gravity or evolution, and it doesn't change an IMF programme - one is either in it, or one is not. We could vote not to accept it as is, but there's no guarantee that the result would be a change in the programme - the IMF and EU can simply say No as well.

aftermn wrote: »

Following the 'programme' will be difficult. Refusing to do so will be more difficult. But we, as a people, are entitled to chose the latter if we so desire.

I agree - I just don't want to see either decision made stupidly, ignorantly, or recklessly. It's very easy to give the impression that default is somehow a way of simply pushing our problems onto someone else's lap, which isn't the case - it's just a change of problems. People wonder why our negotiators don't "have the balls" to "stand up to" the people they're negotiating with - but perhaps they should consider that no amount of balls makes up for a bad hand when bluffing isn't an option.

cordially,
Scofflaw

phosphate

Limerick is a dump. You should have moved out years ago.

Scofflaw

phosphate wrote: »

Limerick is a dump. You should have moved out years ago.

Banned for a week based on a series of completely non-contributory recent posts, pending review of posting history.

moderately,
Scofflaw