Possibility of more cold weather from the 9th of March

TheInquisitor

Fine folks if Darkman2 is gone into hibernation then i'll take up the slack

1) I Can't believe there's not more people on here commenting on the latest models which have been showing the possibility of a snowfest around the 9th

The GFS shows -6 uppers widespread across the country with a PM incursion from the north west





The BOM access agrees below



The ECMWF however still hasn't come to the party and the other models are still on the fence so lets see if we see some upgrades later today because the GFS is a serious upgrade on previous runs.

If anyone finds faults with what i've posted please point it out. I think the PM incursion as it is would lead to heavy snowfalls in the north and west however during the day especially at this time of year there would be a lot of melting.

MiNdGaM3

It's looking interesting at least. The GFS has been downgrading the snow potential over the last few runs, but the cold air is now arriving within t144 so entering the semi-reliable timeframe, and it's slowly gaining more ensemble support with the mean just touching -5C on 850hPa graph. We just need the high to our south west to move away a little and it's game on:D
After the last 2 months I think we deserve a final wintery blast!

Big Daddy Cool

i predict no snow but light rain for the 9th and 10th of march followed by more dry and sunny weather.

MiNdGaM3

The 06z GFS has the cold arriving at t138 now, but once more, makes it just a 36 hour event. Hopefully we won't see the usual warming uppers as we enter t48, but if it can stay consistent up to t0, everywhere should at least see a snow shower or 2, with some lying snow in the west and north.

TheInquisitor

GFS is yes a 36 hour event atm however both the GFS and GEFS both have a view still on the 9th. No push Back. Also the GEFS keeps the cold here much longer making it a 72 hour event...

Waiting on ECM to load up and Bom access

pauldry

Oh, the snow link of my website has been dormant a while now will I wake it up ?;)

MiNdGaM3

The control run certainly looking coldest of the bunch, but a good few now going for at least a brief cold/snowy spell, better than anything in January or February. Hopefully the ECM will jump on board this evening.
Ensemble mean shows the high slipping a little further to the south west also which will help.

nacho libre

One final fleeting blast of wintry weather would be very nice:D

TheInquisitor

"Quickly trying to remember if Its Nacho Libre or Su Campu who is the pessimist* usually". Must be Su Campu!

*Realist

DarkJager

Lads, please stop wishing for more of that **** weather Its spring time now and its about time we got some warmth and sunshine instead of praying for "one final wintery blast". Will ye be doing the same in the middle of July when its 20+c out and splitting the rocks?

NIALL D

^^^ there all talkin about the sun in the spring thread :rolleyes:

hopefully one more good blast of freezing weather is on the way , few days of snow wud be grand...

DarkJager

NIALL D wrote: »

^^^ there all talkin about the sun in the spring thread :rolleyes:

hopefully one more good blast of freezing weather is on the way , few days of snow wud be grand...

Are you insane? What would a few days of snow do apart from **** everything up?

Big Daddy Cool

DarkJager wrote: »

Lads, please stop wishing for more of that **** weather Its spring time now and its about time we got some warmth and sunshine instead of praying for "one final wintery blast". Will ye be doing the same in the middle of July when its 20+c out and splitting the rocks?

i fully expect to still see a couple of ''possibly and'' ''potentially'' cold weather threads from the snow and frost lovers on here, maybe not as far as july cos that would be just crazy, but certainly through april

lord lucan

Sponge Bob

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

I fully expect to still see a couple of ''possibly and'' ''potentially'' cold weather threads from the snow and frost lovers on here In Mid June and it splitting the rocks outside

Fixed that :cool: to take into account the hardcore snow bunnies we get around here. Don't forget that 10% to 20% of all Boards Viewers were in this here forum during the cold snap in late 2010.

It is like a feckin morgue today and the sun bating down outside.

MiNdGaM3

Uh-oh, the 12z GFS is a huge downgrade thus far. The high to the south west nudges too close and the cold uppers just skim the north... hopefully this will prove to be something of an outlier, and the ECM will come to the rescue later on!

MiNdGaM3

Ensembles are an upgrade though:D
The 850hPa ensemble mean now dips below -5C for Dublin between the 9th and 10th and stays pretty close to it for the rest of the run.


Some rather interesting looking ensembles too, such as P12!
Somewhere would get a dumping with this!

Vanhalla

I cannot believe there are still ppl here wishing for more cold and snow! what the hell is wrong with you people.
Its bloody spring time. time to start growing things.
how after the last week of this lovely weather ye would want a return to snow , i just dont know! :rolleyes:

-5c or even -8c 850 air in off the atlantic does not bring snow except to the mountain tops as there is too much of a maritime influence.

You need sub -9c 850 air and lower so this is a non event even if it happened.
Cold rain showers with some sleet mixed in or hail.

-5c air does work if you have snowfields over Ireland and an established cold pool from the north or North east or the East in situ for a while though in other words a surface freezing feed of air [usually an east or northeasterly] plus an existing deep cold pool
No sign of that.

MUSEIST

Vanhalla wrote: »

I cannot believe there are still ppl here wishing for more cold and snow! what the hell is wrong with you people.
Its bloody spring time. time to start growing things.
how after the last week of this lovely weather ye would want a return to snow , i just dont know! :rolleyes:

As someone who normally loves snow I kind of agree with this. As long as it stays bright I'm okay with the current weather, not too bothered about temp.

MiNdGaM3

Deleted User wrote: »

-5c or even -8c 850 air in off the atlantic does not bring snow except to the mountain tops as there is too much of a maritime influence.

You need sub -9c 850 air and lower so this is a non event even if it happened.
Cold rain showers with some sleet mixed in or hail.

-5c air does work if you have snowfields over Ireland and an established cold pool from the north or North east or the East in situ for a while though in other words a surface freezing feed of air [usually an east or northeasterly] plus an existing deep cold pool
No sign of that.

Perhaps in coastal areas, sleet might be the best they'd get, but inland with evaporative cooling, -6C to -8C 850s should easily be enough to get some snow showers.
Take March 3rd 2008 for example, uppers were between -6 and -8C, from a North Westerly flow, yet there were snow showers across much of Ireland with accumalations in many places, I even built a snowman with my girlfriend that day:D
Here are the charts anyway



Reports from Met Eireann
http://met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/mar08_lores.pdf

TheInquisitor

GFS is back on for the 9th. Looks like the beer run was just a wobbler.

MiNdGaM3

TheInquisitor wrote: »

GFS is back on for the 9th. Looks like the beer run was just a wobbler.

Unfortunately, the 528 dam line doesn't make it very far south, the air pressure doesn't drop below 1020hPa with the cold air in place, and with the ssts close to their lowest at this time of year, it's unlikely we would get enough instability to generate any heavy showers.
Back to hoping the ensembles show a continued improvement!

Pangea

This is lovely weather we are having, nice and dry ,warm by day , cold at night.
Dont really care if snow comes back or not at this stage its getting late so cant see anything major happening.
Just dreading the mild and wet days coming back.

Min

My cows are out by day, they are telling me they want no snow, I agree with them.
They love the sun on their backs, they would like it a little warmer.

MiNdGaM3

The ECM and the GFS operational run still not too keen on this northerly, but the GFS ensemble are still giving it a good bit of support, with a 50/50 split.
Still though, seems less likely to happen than it did last night, with the most likely scenario being a continuation of the high pressure centered near or over Ireland.
I'd just like 1 last trek up the snow covered Galtees before the warmth arrives, haven't been since last December:(

sunbabe08

no more snow. bring on the warm weather and sunshine.

Rebelbrowser

I'm obviously a snow lover - so completely biased - and I'm a weather illiterate, but both the GFS 6z and (to some extent) the ECM 12z seem to suggest -8's over much of the country, with Donegal etc being right in the firing line, on 9 March. In fact both suggest it may clear quickly but another bite of the cherry may follow shortly afterwards. Indeed the 6z GFS in its precipitation charts (not very reliable at this time frame I accept) are calling for snow for most of the country (alas not down here in continental Cork!) on 9 March (next Wednesday).

Am I reading this right?

Pangea

Min wrote: »

they are telling me they want no snow, I agree with them.
.

Really??!!
Shock horror :pac:

Big Daddy Cool

i'm still predicting all we'll get next week is maybe a couple of days with light rain, around tuesday onwards followed by more sunshiiiiiine

MiNdGaM3

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Perhaps in coastal areas, sleet might be the best they'd get, but inland with evaporative cooling, -6C to -8C 850s should easily be enough to get some snow showers.
Take March 3rd 2008 for example, uppers were between -6 and -8C, from a North Westerly flow, yet there were snow showers across much of Ireland with accumalations in many places, I even built a snowman with my girlfriend that day:D

yes nuisance sleety snow in a few areas that didn't amount to much,most people in urban areas had bits of sleety rain and would have seen it snow only on the distant hills.
It would of course been a big deal given it was probably a very good snow lol compared to the previous 6 years of snow drought.

MiNdGaM3

Deleted User wrote: »

yes nuisance sleety snow in a few areas that didn't amount to much,most people in urban areas had bits of sleety rain and would have seen it snow only on the distant hills.
It would of course been a big deal given it was probably a very good snow lol compared to the previous 6 years of snow drought.

Built the snowman in Cashel, which I'd imagine is only around 50m asl. Many places had snow falling and accumalating that day, which requires more than cold rain with some sleet mixed in or hail.
Not saying it was a massive snow event, just showing that we don't need sub -9C uppers to get snow from a polar maritime flows in March.

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

This is lovely weather we are having, nice and dry ,warm by day , cold at night.
Dont really care if snow comes back or not at this stage its getting late so cant see anything major happening.
Just dreading the mild and wet days coming back.

:eek::eek::eek: you are dead to me:pac:

MiNdGaM3

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Built the snowman in Cashel, which I'd imagine is only around 50m asl. Many places had snow falling and accumalating that day, which requires more than cold rain with some sleet mixed in or hail.
Not saying it was a massive snow event, just showing that we don't need sub -9C uppers to get snow from a polar maritime flows in March.

Cashel is well inland and near a high ground microclimate.Any snow would have been gone in 24hrs or less and certainly wouldn't have settled in any of the large urban centres such as cork,Dublin or limerick.
So it was a fluke.
Flukes do happen.

To take march 3rd 2008,your example,Shannon had a snow shower in darkness at 6 am.
Precipitation before that was rain and at 8am it was rain source
Min temp was 1c overnight,it got up to a max of 6c that day.

Dublin actually reached a max of 7c that day and reported rain all day in it's showers.
So really snow in such set ups is very fluke but probably was exciting at the time as it was so rare in the last 7 years.

Knock airport did have light snow showers all day but it's circa 700ft asl and well inland.

Cork airport which is also up on high ground circa 600ft or so,had one snow shower that day but mostly rain showers,all rain in the city.

Hence,I don't get excited by polar maratimes unless your 850's are sub -8c and lower.
-10 at least to be sure.

TheInquisitor

Did someone say MASSIVE UPGRADE on GFS compared to last run??



This goes to this now from...



And look what it was on the last run!! HUGE UPGRADE

MiNdGaM3

Deleted User wrote: »

Cashel is well inland and near a high ground microclimate.Any snow would have been gone in 24hrs or less and certainly wouldn't have settled in any of the large urban centres such as cork,Dublin or limerick.
So it was a fluke.
Flukes do happen.

To take march 3rd 2008,your example,Shannon had a snow shower in darkness at 6 am.
Precipitation before that was rain and at 8am it was rain source
Min temp was 1c overnight,it got up to a max of 6c that day.

Dublin actually reached a max of 7c that day and reported rain all day in it's showers.
So really snow in such set ups is very fluke but probably was exciting at the time as it was so rare in the last 7 years.

Knock airport did have light snow showers all day but it's circa 700ft asl and well inland.

Cork airport which is also up on high ground circa 600ft or so,had one snow shower that day but mostly rain showers,all rain in the city.

Hence,I don't get excited by polar maratimes unless your 850's are sub -8c and lower.
-10 at least to be sure.

I guess if we're gonna drag this out...
I didn't mention snow lasting more than 24 hours, just showers with some accumalations, as per what occurred and may well occur under similar conditions.
Ireland consists of much more than just large urban centers, so they're in the minority. Not to say that they didn't get snow on the day.
Here's a clip from Dublin, from that day, showing a dusting of snow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToE-CqMkvGo

There are various other clips from the day showing snow from a broad swath of the country.
As for Cashel having a micro climate, the foot of the Galtee Mountains is 10km away and to the south west, not much use under a northwesterly flow.

A quick look at the thread for that day show how widespread the snow was
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055245965&page=13

Anywho, this is getting a bit silly! Agree to disagree maybe?

TheInquisitor

Ironically Black Briar was commenting in that thread and on page 16 reports snow although not lasting long

TheInquisitor

TheInquisitor wrote: »

Ironically Black Briar was commenting in that thread and on page 16 reports snow although not lasting long

I'm sure I was and I'm sure I did.
As I said after a 7 year famine,anything at all back then looked like a blizzard to most. But my point remains,that the weather logs for Dublin,cork and shannon report mostly rain on the day with the exception of well inland and higher ground.
So I remain unconvinced of the potency of polar maratime air,it's almost useless bar the odd flukey heavy shower mainly in the overnight or early morning.. especially in favoured microclimates.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=55286737&postcount=216

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=55287011&postcount=225

I'm in a micro climate[if its cold air sourced from the north but blowing in from the west] by the way close to high ground and often see some snow from showers in a polar maratime as they don't melt adjacent to the hills near by.
That is ironic I agree in the context of this thread.
But it doesn't change things or the fact that we had little to be excited about back in 2008.

patneve2

I find that 850 hPa temperatures can be quite misleading at times. Much better to look at 500 hPa temps...for example if u get a -35 to -40 @ 500 hPa over Ireland in March that's heavy wintry showers for all. On the 3rd March 2008 the -35 isotherm only covered the Northern part of the country. (and many places did still see some snow anyways).

MiNdGaM3

patneve2 wrote: »

I find that 850 hPa temperatures can be quite misleading at times. Much better to look at 500 hPa temps...for example if u get a -35 to -40 @ 500 hPa over Ireland in March that's heavy wintry showers for all. On the 3rd March 2008 the -35 isotherm only covered the Northern part of the country. (and many places did still see some snow anyways).

I wouldn't say it's much better to look at the 500hPa temps, but certainly does help!
Luckily enough, towards the end of the week we get a good combination of both with -6C to -8C 850hPa temps and -35C to -40C 500s. Hopefully with that depth of cold and the sun now warming the suface that bit more, we should manage to spark off some heavy showers.
Of course it may very well go the way of the ECM in which case, sleet in the north looks like the best we could hope for...

darkman2

GFS quite solid for snow potential later next week. But it's still uncertain with the other models showing different outcomes. Chances are improving though of a return to Winter weather later next week. Be interesting to see how this developes tomorrow.

JanuarySnowstor

ECM now coming on board aswell.
Cold next weekend with snowfall a distinct possibility.
Too late to light my fire but interesting all the same.

Met Eireann as per usual on a different tack!
He didn't even mention it turning colder

200motels

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

ECM now coming on board aswell.
Cold next weekend with snowfall a distinct possibility.
Too late to light my fire but interesting all the same.

Met Eireann as per usual on a different tack!
He didn't even mention it turning colder

Nothing new there with M E.

Harps

Maybe because it keeps getting pushed out? Two days ago it was going to be cold on the 9th, now its just a cool westerly. The same will probably happen again so why should they mention it until its within a reliable timeframe?

JanuarySnowstor

Harps wrote: »

Maybe because it keeps getting pushed out? Two days ago it was going to be cold on the 9th, now its just a cool westerly. The same will probably happen again so why should they mention it until its within a reliable timeframe?

The forecaster went up to next wkd.
All the signs are that it will either be cold or very cold with model consensus on this.
All I ask is that they give the most updated info to the public.
He suggests it will be very unsettled next wkd whereas the charts are showing very cold with wintry showers

Elmer Blooker

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

ECM now coming on board aswell.
Cold next weekend with snowfall a distinct possibility.
Too late to light my fire but interesting all the same.

Met Eireann as per usual on a different tack!
He didn't even mention it turning colder

Interesting to note, Gerry Murphy said nothing about cold weather after the 6 o clock news but said turning "much colder" on the 9 o clock news.

thetonynator

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The forecaster went up to next wkd.
All the signs are that it will either be cold or very cold with model consensus on this.
All I ask is that they give the most updated info to the public.
He suggests it will be very unsettled next wkd whereas the charts are showing very cold with wintry showers

Want to bet on this cold spell happening? Cool and wet, no snow, 95% guaranteed.

200motels

thetonynator wrote: »

Want to bet on this cold spell happening? Cool and wet, no snow, 95% guaranteed.

That roughly equates to 25/1 good odds that it will snow.

Redsunset

Rubbish

Swampy

Ok, so what's the beef in laymans terms? I'm planning a weekend away this weekend to Sligo. Should I cancel or will I be grand weatherwise?

Thanks.


Great forum by the way.

Su Campu

For what it's worth here's the GFS gramet for Finner for Saturday - Monday, showing some sleet/snow to low levels Saturday night into Sunday.

http://www.ogimet.com/display_gramet.php?lang=en&wmo=03978&name1=&lat1=&lon1=&alt1=&name2=&lat2=&lon2=&alt2=&hini=120&tref=1299489460&hfin=168&hl=3000&fl=100&submit=submit