Fg Contact Independents to Assess Deal

Sponge Bob

It has been confirmed in Galway West by Noel Grealish that Phil Hogan got in touch with him about a deal. Apppearntly Phil is in charge of Plan B , the other coalition.

I would speculate that Phil was also in touch with ( at a minimum) Michael Healy Rae, Lowry, Shane Ross and probably even Thomas Pringle as he assesses the possibility of a Coalition of the Willing with some independents.

ejmaztec

Sponge Bob wrote: »

It has been confirmed in Galway West by Noel Grealish that Phil Hogan got in touch with him about a deal. Apppearntly Phil is in charge of Plan B , the other coalition.

I would speculate that Phil was also in touch with ( at a minimum) Michael Healy Rae, Lowry, Shane Ross and probably even Thomas Pringle as he assesses the possibility of a Coalition of the Willing with some independents.

Christ help us if we're going to be subjected to the Healy-Rae game again.:mad:

johngalway

I think it's only prudent for FG to examine all options. But, I'd agree with Michael Noonans thinking on them (bad idea!) given the numbers needed.

Manach

Well, a certain Mr. Adams might be willing to give FG a listen.

mike65

I was looking through the list of Indys and frankly its hard to see where the support will come from - a few decent skins, a few chancers and a bunch of needy socialists.

paul71

ejmaztec wrote: »

Christ help us if we're going to be subjected to the Healy-Rae game again.:mad:

We won't it is only being done to be used as a barganing tool in the negotiations with labour.

d'Oracle

ejmaztec wrote: »

Christ help us if we're going to be subjected to the Healy-Rae game again.:mad:

I'm moving to south Kerry.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

The Brigadier

Healy-Rae?

Oh noes.

d'Oracle

Manach wrote: »

Well, a certain Mr. Adams might be willing to give FG a listen.

MAry Lou has already gone on record to rule that out.

Pete_Cavan

Sponge Bob wrote: »

It has been confirmed in Galway West by Noel Grealish that Phil Hogan got in touch with him about a deal. Apppearntly Phil is in charge of Plan B , the other coalition.

I would speculate that Phil was also in touch with ( at a minimum) Michael Healy Rae, Lowry, Shane Ross and probably even Thomas Pringle as he assesses the possibility of a Coalition of the Willing with some independents.

Id say it is more to do with giving them a bit more leverage when negotiating with Labour than actually thinking they can form a coalition with a bunch of flaky independents.

Pherekydes

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

What's the alternative? Labour?

Sponge Bob

I forgot to speculate on Mick Wallace ( Wexford) Tom Fleming ( Kerry ) and Matty McGrath ( Tipp) Finian McGrath ( Dublin North) as well. Add them to list in the first post, reappoint Kirk to Ceann Comhairle and you have a fair old majority. None are pesky hard core lefties or hospital candidates neither Seamus Brennan kept a pack of independents quiet for years, including Healy Rae ( 1997-2002). mainly involves regular briefings and chats.

mike65

I suppose you could look at it like this -

Independents that need paying off - 8
Labour TDs that need paying off - 37/38

johngalway

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

It's a hint to Gilmore. Demand too much, fine, we've got other irons in the fire.

ejmaztec

d'Oracle wrote: »

I'm moving to south Kerry.

The new pariah state.

paul71

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I forgot to speculate on Mick Wallace ( Wexford) Tom Fleming ( Kerry ) and Matty McGrath ( Tipp) Finian McGrath ( Dublin North) as well. Add them to list in the first post, reappoint Kirk to Ceann Comhairle and you have a fair old majority. None are pesky hard core lefties or hospital candidates neither Seamus Brennan kept a pack of independents quiet for years, including Healy Rae ( 1997-2002). mainly involves regular briefings and chats.

I can't see it, 3 of them are too flakey, Lowry, Healey Rea, and McGrath. On top of the Shane Ross is not a FG fan to say the least.

Sponge Bob

They are not as flakey as you think, them lads only really broke out after the Greens said they were leaving government around budget time in November. They would be good for 2 years of relative peace and quiet as long as they were mollified very much a lot Grealish only ever voted against the government twice that I can remember ....and neither occasion mattered and he and they knew it.

I could see Damien English being given the chief whips job specifically to deal with them, or Fergus O Dowd.

Killer Pigeon

Is there anyone else who thinks that having ~110-120 TD's in government -vs- ~40-50 in opposition is a bad idea? I mean there isn't going to be a strong group of people to keep the government in check and to account. A Labour lead opposition -vs- a FG lead government seems only logical.

Plus, if there is a FG/Lab government then we could potentially see the resurgence of the evil FF empire in 20 years time which I doubt many people want ...

paul71

Perhaps but Lowry and Healy Rea spawn or a poisoned cup in the eyes of the electorate, country needs 2 term stability to sort itself out and that can only be provided by comfortable majority.

Even FG/SF would be more stable and we all know that wont happen.

Killer Pigeon

paul71 wrote: »

Perhaps but Lowry and Healy Rea spawn or a poisoned cup in the eyes of the electorate, country needs 2 term stability to sort itself out and that can only be provided by comfortable majority.

Even FG/SF would be more stable and we all know that wont happen.

But the Dáil has plenty of new Independents. Get the Blue Shirts, through in a bit of NewVision, Shane Ross and Mick Wallace and Bob's Your Uncle, the 31st Dáil.

robd

paul71 wrote: »

We won't it is only being done to be used as a barganing tool in the negotiations with labour.

First rule of negotiation. Always be prepared to walk away.

Laois_Man

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

Plus, if there is a FG/Lab government then we could potentially see the resurgence of the evil FF empire in 20 years time which I doubt many people want ...

If you think FF "empire" is gonna take over 20 years to recover, you're in cloud cookoo land!

paul71

robd wrote: »

First rule of negotiation. Always be prepared to walk away.

Perhaps, but look at Belguim, their largest parties were prepared to walk away and they have had no government for a close to a year.

KerranJast

paul71 wrote: »

Perhaps, but look at Belguim, their largest parties were prepared to walk away and they have had no government for a close to a year.

The Belgians are like the shower up North. Its a country neither side want but are stuck with so its not a correct comparison.

Killer Pigeon

Laois_Man wrote: »

If you think FF "empire" is gonna take over 20 years to recover, you're in cloud cookoo land!

What's your projection?

johnnyskeleton

It is likely to be 75/76 FG depending on Galway West and the independents will likely be:

Noel Grealish
Catherine Connolly
Ming the Merciless
Tom Fleming
John Halligan
Seamus Healy
Michael Healy Rae
Michael Lowry
Finian McGrath
Mattie McGrath
Catherine Murphy
Maureen O'Sullivan
Thomas Pringle
Shane Ross
Mick Wallace.

FG will need 8 out of those 15. Shane Ross appears to have ruled out supporting FG, but I could see him potentially supporting them if that was on the cards.

Catherine Connolly is ex-Labour so is unlikely. Mick Wallace is the ex developer guy so also unlikely.

Ming is probably not suitable either.

I suspect that from an optics point of view they are not going to go in with Healy Rae or Lowry - if they are going to do that, they may as well go into coalition with FF.

Most of the rest are pure pork barreller FF gene pool types and Fis Nua. Given that they have to choose 8 out of a potential 11 (or 9 if they get only get 75 seats), they are significantly over a barrel and will be beholden to fairly high demands.

This motely crew could also cause problems if there ever was a decision that was fundamentally unpalletable to any of them.

paul71

KerranJast wrote: »

The Belgians are like the shower up North. Its a country neither side want but are stuck with so its not a correct comparison.

Then look at Czech Republic they had 9 months without a government because the parties adopted a policy of being able to walk away. No great ethnic divide in that country.

Killer Pigeon

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Ming is probably not suitable either.

.

Yeah, he's one of these lefty hippey culchies, aka., turf hugger.

RGDATA!

d'Oracle wrote: »

MAry Lou has already gone on record to rule that out.

er, more importantly so has Kenny

Laois_Man

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

What's your projection?

What I've been saying since before the campaign started. By the time the 2015 or 2016 election comes around, and we've drawn down the full 85 Billion (and then some), and the FG/LAB coalition have taken the planned 9 Billion more out of the economy (and then some) in the form of cuts, raised taxes and more new taxes (which they'll try to tell us were introduced by local authorities and not them) , they'll be every bit as detested as FF were last Friday....and FF will swarm back in with Michael Martin as Taoiseach....in 2016.....THAT SOON!

Wait n see!

Disclaimer: I am not a member of FF or a supporter - I did not give them ANY preference last Friday.

Laois_Man

RGDATA! wrote: »

er, more importantly so has Kenny

So has Adams!

Balmed Out

Laois_Man wrote: »

What I've been saying since before the campaign started. By the time the 2015 or 2016 election comes around, and we've drawn down the full 85 Billion (and then some), and the FG/LAB coalition have taken the planned 9 Billion more out of the economy (and then some) in the form of cuts, raised taxes and more new taxes (which they'll try to tell us were introduced by local authorities and not them) , they'll be every bit as detested as FF were last Friday....and FF will swarm back in with Michael Martin as Taoiseach....in 2016.....THAT SOON!

Wait n see!

Disclaimer: I am not a member of FF or a supporter - I did not give them ANY preference last Friday.

The next election is going to be very, very interesting.
I dont see ff getting redeemed quite so quickly though. However, whoever is in power will be making very unpopular decisions.

Who will people vote for?

Could sinn fein double in size again?

Its for this very reason Id prefer to see a fg/independants government. At least one of the major parties with some bit of pragmatic common sense might be around and able to form a coalition without extremists.

baalthor

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

Is there anyone else who thinks that having ~110-120 TD's in government -vs- ~40-50 in opposition is a bad idea? I mean there isn't going to be a strong group of people to keep the government in check and to account.

It also gives groups of frustated govt backbenchers plenty of scope to cause trouble.
Interestingly, a strictly proportional form of PR would give our potential FG/Lab govt a more manageable 90 seats.

Pete_Cavan

JohnnySkeletons list of independents;

Noel Grealish - former PD, compatible with FG
Catherine Connolly - lefty, former Labour
Ming the Merciless - pothead and general nutjob
Tom Fleming - FF gene pool
John Halligan - lefty, former Workers Party
Seamus Healy - lefty, IMPACT Trade Union
Michael Healy Rae - bogman, compatible with anyone, if the price is right!
Michael Lowry - gombeen, same as Healy Rae
Finian McGrath - lefty, part of Sinn Fein technical group in last Dail
Mattie McGrath - former FF so fairly compatible with FG but who'd want him?
Catherine Murphy - lefty, former Workers Party
Maureen O'Sullivan - lefty, part of Sinn Fein technical group in last Dail
Thomas Pringle - lefty, former Sinn Fein
Shane Ross - ran for FG in the past, refused to do so again although still compatible
Mick Wallace - property developer so fairly compatible with FG

Not nearly enough there for FG to form a government. Whoever came out with that line about a "ragbag of independents" was spot on.

hatrickpatrick

ejmaztec wrote: »

Christ help us if we're going to be subjected to the Healy-Rae game again.:mad:

Clam bástealla wholla!
Mawa healo beadah yuiliki!!!

Balmed Out

realistically to have sufficent numbers to last they'd be taking all the ex ff, lowry, healy rae and possibly even ming if hes satisfied with some turf promise.

mikemac

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Michael Healy Rae - bogman, compatible with anyone, if the price is right!

"If you are an independent in Dublin Central and do a deal to get millions invested into the constituency you are a hero. If you do this outside Dublin you are engaged in gombeen politics."
Michael Healy Rae

The man has a point

Pete_Cavan

feelingstressed wrote: »

"If you are an independent in Dublin Central and do a deal to get millions invested into the constituency you are a hero. If you do this outside Dublin you are engaged in gombeen politics."
Michael Healy Rae

The man has a point

"If you are an independent in South Kerry and do a deal to support a budget in order to get taxpayers money to pay for a bypass around Tralee at the expense of countless other projects more deserving of funds then you are a gombeen."
Me

edanto

I wonder if M Healy Rae would like to give us a description of what his father achieved for their consituency and compare it with the achievements of the most prominent Dublin independent Tony Gregory? There's more to this subject than this simplistic quote.

Sierra Oscar

I think most people are forgetting at at the end of the day FG are well aware that without Labour they will have no "mud-guard" in government. By entering into government with Labour, FG are removing a potential damaging opposition party from the Dail.

edanto

On the main topic, what do you all think would be the main points of difference between a Lab-FG programme for government and a FG-Ind?

Without Labour on board, FG could proceed with

- pay later university education
- flogging off of the state assets
- very deep public service cuts (if their promises are to believed, the public service admin would go from dysfunctional and wasteful to sleek and efficient)
- cutting of the social protection budget

Added to that, they wouldn't have to give X cabinet seats to Labour.

Probably the main concession they would have to give to get Ross/Donnelly etc etc on board would be to agressively target the bond investors for losses and put in place things to root out cronyism and improve transparency.

I can see this as a realistic option for FG.

baalthor

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Noel Grealish - former PD, compatible with FG
Catherine Connolly - lefty, former Labour
Seamus Healy - lefty, IMPACT Trade Union

Healy is part of the ULA who are meant to form in to an official party. So he would be performing a big U turn by supporting FG.
From what little I know of the guy, this seems unlikely.
Wallace supports a lot of left wing positions while he and Ross are not fulltime pols and wont be so concerned with re-election.

Killer Pigeon

Laois_Man wrote: »

What I've been saying since before the campaign started. By the time the 2015 or 2016 election comes around, and we've drawn down the full 85 Billion (and then some), and the FG/LAB coalition have taken the planned 9 Billion more out of the economy (and then some) in the form of cuts, raised taxes and more new taxes (which they'll try to tell us were introduced by local authorities and not them) , they'll be every bit as detested as FF were last Friday....and FF will swarm back in with Michael Martin as Taoiseach....in 2016.....THAT SOON!

Wait n see!

Disclaimer: I am not a member of FF or a supporter - I did not give them ANY preference last Friday.

I don't think that people have such a short memory ... people will know that FG/Ind. or FG/Lab. will have to make very hard decisions anyway.

county man

Ming was on RTE radio today saying that he would be inclined to support Fine Gael.

mewso

feelingstressed wrote: »

"If you are an independent in Dublin Central and do a deal to get millions invested into the constituency you are a hero. If you do this outside Dublin you are engaged in gombeen politics."
Michael Healy Rae

The man has a point

Indeed he does. Two wrongs don't make a right.

limklad

d'Oracle wrote: »

I'm moving to south Kerry.

You need to assimilate the South Kerry lingo.

I don't think Rosetta Stone have a language created for this.

This might help.
http://www.slang.ie/topslang.php?county=Kerry


Good Luck

limklad

ejmaztec wrote: »

The new pariah state.

They did get rid of O'Donoghue.

The Man who believes he did no wrong.
He believes he was not too extravagant in his high lavish expenses to see the horses.

RandomName2

Sponge Bob wrote: »

It has been confirmed in Galway West by Noel Grealish that Phil Hogan got in touch with him about a deal. Apppearntly Phil is in charge of Plan B , the other coalition.

I would speculate that Phil was also in touch with ( at a minimum) Michael Healy Rae, Lowry, Shane Ross and probably even Thomas Pringle as he assesses the possibility of a Coalition of the Willing with some independents.

There must be 8 decent centre-right independent TDs to be had!

I, for one, wouldn't mid seeing Shane Ross in government

snowstreams

RandomName2 wrote: »

There must be 8 decent centre-right independent TDs to be had!

I, for one, wouldn't mid seeing Shane Ross in government

He used to be aligned with FG so would it suit him to become FG again?

gizmo555

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

JohnnySkeletons list of independents;

Noel Grealish - former PD, compatible with FG
Catherine Connolly - lefty, former Labour
Ming the Merciless - pothead and general nutjob
Tom Fleming - FF gene pool
John Halligan - lefty, former Workers Party
Seamus Healy - lefty, IMPACT Trade Union
Michael Healy Rae - bogman, compatible with anyone, if the price is right!
Michael Lowry - gombeen, same as Healy Rae
Finian McGrath - lefty, part of Sinn Fein technical group in last Dail
Mattie McGrath - former FF so fairly compatible with FG but who'd want him?
Catherine Murphy - lefty, former Workers Party
Maureen O'Sullivan - lefty, part of Sinn Fein technical group in last Dail
Thomas Pringle - lefty, former Sinn Fein
Shane Ross - ran for FG in the past, refused to do so again although still compatible
Mick Wallace - property developer so fairly compatible with FG

Not nearly enough there for FG to form a government. Whoever came out with that line about a "ragbag of independents" was spot on.

Stephen Donnelly is still in the running in Wicklow and would be fairly FG compatible too.

It's not ideal, but do-able, either now or later on in the lifetime of this Dáil if a coalition comes apart. It might be less unstable than a government with a huge majority and a lot of idle hands on the backbenches of both parties for the devil to make work for.

These independent know too that the majority, if not all of them will lose their seats next time round if a FG/Labour coalition does come about, leaving them with no influence on government policy.