Predict the Ministers

_Bella_

Obviously nothing is set in stone yet,but with a Fine Gael and Labour coalition who do you predict will be the ministers?

whydoibother?

Dr. James O'Reilly - health

That's the only one I'd bet on tbh

Edit: Oh, and Michael Noonan - Finance

damonjewel

the Michael Noonan suggestion is an interesting one as he has been lauded as the steadying influence on Enda's frontbench, However I'm quite sure Labour would want to bag this portfolio. My money is on Ruairi Quinn for Finance

3DataModem

damonjewel wrote: »

the Michael Noonan suggestion is an interesting one as he has been lauded as the steadying influence on Enda's frontbench, However I'm quite sure Labour would want to bag this portfolio. My money is on Ruairi Quinn for Finance

Hmmm... not a fan of FG or Labour but both seem like OK choices.

God forbid its that Joan Burton nightmare.

whydoibother?

damonjewel wrote: »

the Michael Noonan suggestion is an interesting one as he has been lauded as the steadying influence on Enda's frontbench, However I'm quite sure Labour would want to bag this portfolio. My money is on Ruairi Quinn for Finance

Yeah, I was thinking along the same lines as you at first. Traditionally in a coalition, the junior partner gets something good. But I think that with Finance being so crucial at the moment, Fine Gael will want to keep it to themselves and they will have a lot of bargaining power to do that since they don't need Labour and could make up the numbers with independents.

damonjewel

whydoibother? wrote: »

Yeah, I was thinking along the same lines as you at first. Traditionally in a coalition, the junior partner gets something good. But I think that with Finance being so crucial at the moment, Fine Gael will want to keep it to themselves and they will have a lot of bargaining power to do that since they don't need Labour and could make up the numbers with independents.

But thats the irony, Ireland government needs to present itself to the international community as both strong and stable, FG lack the numbers I think to rely on independents. beyond Ross and Lory I cant see any independents that would go along with their manifesto. So the strongest government would be a LAB/FG coalition, but labour will oh so want Finance. Could FG negotiate a coalition with labour and keep finance? personally I'd be surprised

whydoibother?

damonjewel wrote: »

But thats the irony, Ireland government needs to present itself to the international community as both strong and stable, FG lack the numbers I think to rely on independents. beyond Ross and Lory I cant see any independents that would go along with their manifesto. So the strongest government would be a LAB/FG coalition, but labour will oh so want Finance. Could FG negotiate a coalition with labour and keep finance? personally I'd be surprised

Definitely the strongest Government would be LAB/FG, but I think that since the main point of contention between the two parties was in relation to whether the EU/IMF budged deficit reduction plan should be extended or not, FG are going to see keeping Finance as absolutely vital. It might be possible for FG to negotiate a coalition by giving numerous smaller portfolios to LAB, more than their numbers merit. The logic could possibly go something like "two small equals one big". They could give them tourism, arts etc.

CoalBucket

My guess I think at least 4 or 5 could be right


Taoiseach - Enda Kenny
Tanaiste - Eamonn Gilmore
Finance - Michael Noonan
Health - James Reilly
Education - Fergus O'Dowd
Foreign Affairs - Sean Barrett
Justice - Pat Rabbitte
Environment - Phil Hogan
Enterprise - Joan Burton
Social Protection - Ruari Quinn
Transport - Simon Coveney
Communication - Leo Varadkar
Agriculture - Sean Sherlock
Children - Alan Shatter

damonjewel

I think for Labour to relinquish the Finance portfolio they'll be more looking for the bigger portfolios, such as Foreign affairs, education, health. I think their numbers are big enough to bully for them jobs. I would like to see Howlin getting a biggish portfolio, I think he could be a good bet for Health

meemeep

won't Richard Bruton get finance? O'Reilly has to get health. Noonan justice (he can tackle the crime gangs on his doorstep). Labour more likely to get social welfare and equality type jobs. What will they give Peter Mathews - special advisor on b(w)anking???

whydoibother?

Yes, enterprise could go to Joan Burton.

Alan Shatter - children or justice - he's very suitable for either as an experienced lawyer who focused particularly on family law.

A thought just occurred to me - I really hope they don't decide to rearrange the departments and portfolios and ruin our game!:D

whydoibother?

meemeep wrote: »

won't Richard Bruton get finance? O'Reilly has to get health. Noonan justice (he can tackle the crime gangs on his doorstep). Labour more likely to get social welfare and equality type jobs. What will they give Peter Mathews - special advisor on b(w)anking???

I think Richard will have annoyed Enda too much with the leadership challenge to get anything that good, and will be lucky to be a Minister at all.

SB-08

Taoiseach : Enda Kenny
Tánaiste: Eamon Gilmore

Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food: Willie Penrose
Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism: Olivia Michell
Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources: Leo Varadkar
Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs: Fergus O'Dowd
Minister for Defence: Michael Ring
Minister for Education and Science: Ruairi Quinn
Minister for Public Sector Reform: Richard Bruton
Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment: Joan Burton
Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government: Phil Hogan
Minister for Finance: Michael Noonan &/or Pat Rabbitte - it could be split up into two departments like in the UK.
Minister for Foreign Affairs: Eamon Gilmore
Minister for Health and Children: James Reilly
Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform: Alan Shatter
Minister for Social and Family Affairs: Róisín Shortall
Minister for Transport: Simon Coveny

Brian Hayes might get a look in too, plus Peter Mathews said he would be there but it will prob be a Junior Ministry in Finance or Enterprise - or perhaps he will get his own Banking Reform Ministry.

irishh_bob

whydoibother? wrote: »

Dr. James O'Reilly - health

That's the only one I'd bet on tbh

Edit: Oh, and Michael Noonan - Finance

i hope botler doesnt get health , once a doctor always a doctor and their is no bigger clique in this country than that of the medical fraternity , they look after their own , if reilly gets this brief , dont expect to see reduced salarys for consultants or GP,s being forced into the free market

irishh_bob

CoalBucket wrote: »

My guess I think at least 4 or 5 could be right


Taoiseach - Enda Kenny
Tanaiste - Eamonn Gilmore
Finance - Michael Noonan
Health - James Reilly
Education - Fergus O'Dowd
Foreign Affairs - Sean Barrett
Justice - Pat Rabbitte
Environment - Phil Hogan
Enterprise - Joan Burton
Social Protection - Ruari Quinn
Transport - Simon Coveney
Communication - Leo Varadkar
Agriculture - Sean Sherlock
Children - Alan Shatter

cant see labour getting agriculture and transport is too big a brief for the gormless coveney , give him sport or something

questionmark?

I know Noonan has being used as a calming influence in the FG frontbench. But Richard Bruton is the best candidate for the Minister for Finance role. Labour should not get this but some big concession will have to be gave to them. As was said I can see the finance portfolio being broken up into two depts. Finance and economic development or something like that.

spiralism

Anybody else think Phil Hogan might be named Ceann Comhairle?

takun

whydoibother? wrote: »

I think Richard will have annoyed Enda too much with the leadership challenge to get anything that good, and will be lucky to be a Minister at all.

I think you are wrong there. If there is one thing Enda has been good at, it's building bridges between the various party factions. I don't think he will get finance, but would expect he'll have a senior portfolio. Don't forget that his right hand man, Phil Hogan, was his opponent when he was elected leader. Which bring me to......

spiralism wrote: »

Anybody else think Phil Hogan might be named Ceann Comhairle?

Not a chance. Hogan thrives on being in the thick of things and is a consummate fixer. He is also liked generally and will be a great asset in keeping the two sides of a coalition together. He is too useful and would never ever want to be sidelined like that. Environment, or Trade and Employment or some such.

Duke Leonal Felmet

Anything but finance minister for Richard Bruton would be a crime. Alas, the heave...

whatawaster

Taoiseach - Enda Kenny
Tanaiste - Eamon Gilmore
Finance - Michael Noonan
Education - Ruari Quinn
Public Sector Reform - Richard Bruton
Health - James Reilly
Justice - Brendan Howlin
Foreign Affairs - Pat Rabbitte
Social Welfare - Joan Burton
Enterprise, Trade & Employment - Leo Varadkar
Communication, Energy & Resources - Roisin Shorthall
Transport - Simon Coveney
Environment - Phil Hogan
Agriculture - Fergus O'Dowd
Arts, Tourism & Sport - Ciaran Lynch
Gaeltacht & Community - Frances Fitzgerald

9-7 cabinet split between FG & Labour. Very generous on the junior coalition partners, but to make up for that fact, FG retain key positions like Finance, Reform, Enterprise & Health.

Only 3 women on the front bench, so expect junior ministries to be loaded with women like Lucinda Creighton, Jan O'Sullivan & Olivia Mitchell

SB-08

There is no question Bruton will get a senior Ministry - not sure about Finance but I think he will get either Education (his personal preference) or the expect new Public Sector Reform Ministry. If FG get Finance it will likely be Noonan with Lab getting Enterprise.

Enda certainly won't shaft Bruton due to the heave. Bruton along with Noonan and Hogan will be the negotiating team opposite Rabbitte, Quinn and Howlin for Lab.

namloc1980

As per the Constitution the Government can only consist of a maximum of 15 members including the Taoiseach and Tánaiste. Some of the guesses here are above that number. Gonna be a 9-6 split if FG-Lab get together or aybe 10-5.

Officer Giggles

Not really a ministry but shatter might be made the attorney general to appease him, gilmore foreign affairs, reilly health, rabbitte justice, varadkar enterprise, bruton ps reform, Quinn social welfare, coveney communication

ddef

For Defence it would HAVE to be ex-army officer Billy Timmins.
He's the only one suited and it'd be ridiculous to choose anyone else, based purely on Timmins' experience.

dashboard_hula

I would imagine that seeing as FG actually have a choice between Labour and a loose coalition of independents (both choices have their unsavoury sides though), that FG mightn't be too quick to give up major portfolios, Gilmores bluster aside.

I'd imagine they'll give Labour the "lighter" posts, with maybe 1 big one thrown in to make the coalition look somewhat balanced.

Can an independent TD be made a minister? I can see Shane Ross being considered. As long as they keep Mattie McGrath away from anything to do with money.

Bryan4president

spiralism wrote: »

Anybody else think Phil Hogan might be named Ceann Comhairle?

I heard rumblings at the count in Mayo, that they were thinking of giving the Ceann Comhairle to Micheal Ring. Which would definitely half the ceann comhairle's work, as Ring was always being told to shut up.

johngalway

I can't and don't want to see Labour getting agriculture. Collective farms for all (kidding). Who ever get's it can't possibly be worse than Smith.

D Naughton for Agirculture I think.

Noonan definitely has Finance, O Dowd has Education.

J Bruton for Health?? Or Justice??

aliveandkicking

Doesn't the Tanaiste usually get a ministry aswell? All the predictions so far have Gilmore listed just as Tanaiste but what department will he get?

RandolphEsq

If FG and Labour form a coalition I can't see health and finance going to Labour but they will still be given a large brief instead, like justice.

Kristopherus

Bryan4president wrote: »

I heard rumblings at the count in Mayo, that they were thinking of giving the Ceann Comhairle to Micheal Ring. Which would definitely half the ceann comhairle's work, as Ring was always being told to shut up.

You beat me to it. I think it would be a master stroke by Kenny. Ring will be banging on Kenny's door looking for a Senior Post. He has already let that be known in the public domain. Also it would guarantee FG a starting seat in Mayo in 2016 and allow them to try and defend their 4 seats. It would also shut Ring up as you say, though I can't see him being fully silent and all ceremonial.:D

Side Show Bob

Ruari Quinn Taoiseach, responsible for Directions to Dáil Éireann
Joe Higgans Tánaiste with responsibility for the economy.
Moan Burton Minister for Haranguing & Public Relations.
Enda Kenny Minister Loitering with responsibility for waiting 35 years for FF to £uck up,
Richard Bruton Industrial Espionage leading to failure
Michael Noonan Health & Denial with responsibility for Women
Shane Ross Job Protection & leaving before it’s abolished
Eamon Gilmoure Protecting Civil Servants, Teachers & Unions
James Rielly Protecting vested Medical Interest.
Leo Varadker Communication & Internal Affairs
Gerry Adams Minister for “Truth and honesty to the People”
Fergus O’ Dowd Minister for Education with responsibility for Children
Pat Rabbitte Public Relations & Media
Simon Coveney Strategy & Planning
Roisin Shorthall Women’s Rights & Bra Burning.
Mary Lou Mc Donnell Justice & Law Reform
Brendan Howlin Pension Protection for the Public sector & ex Ministers

SB-08

aliveandkicking wrote: »

Doesn't the Tanaiste usually get a ministry aswell? All the predictions so far have Gilmore listed just as Tanaiste but what department will he get?

I have him down for Foreign Affairs which is quite likely.

carlowboy

SB-08 wrote: »

Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism: Olivia Michell

Lol. Olivia Mitchell won't be close to getting a ministerial position.

SB-08

carlowboy wrote: »

Lol. Olivia Mitchell won't be close to getting a ministerial position.

Well I was just thinking due to how few women there are. She was predicted to be the next CC amazingly on the week in politics last night though.

The Brigadier

dashboard_hula wrote: »

Can an independent TD be made a minister? I can see Shane Ross being considered. As long as they keep Mattie McGrath away from anything to do with money.

As I understand it any TD can be asked to become part of the government. There is nothing in place to stop a member of another party being asked to join the government.

TGQ

spiralism wrote: »

Anybody else think Phil Hogan might be named Ceann Comhairle?

No i think it will be Olivia Mitchell

d'Oracle

Varadkar for Ent trade and Employment.
Id say its a shoe-in

I actually don't think Noonan will be in finance.
He has only been spokesperson since the Heave and while he was great at taking the mickey out of FF, I think Bruton was more clued in.

Dr. Jim for Health.

I'm still not 100% convinced that Labour will be in.

baalthor

d'Oracle wrote: »

Varadkar for Ent trade and Employment.
Id say its a shoe-in

I actually don't think Noonan will be in finance.
He has only been spokesperson since the Heave and while he was great at taking the mickey out of FF, I think Bruton was more clued in.

Dr. Jim for Health.

I'm still not 100% convinced that Labour will be in.

Dr Leo is also a doctor, maybe he could have a go at Health?

jmayo

Health is going to Reilly, unless he wants something else.

Noonan will get finance I beleive.

Bruton will be rewarded by being given a ministry to reform public sector.
That way it will keep him nice and busy.

Phil Hogan will be rewarded with Environment.

Peter Matthews did not come into Dáil to sit beside the eejits and new guys at the back.
He might be given somehting to do with Finance with special responsibility for banking and corporate affairs. It would be a waste otherwise.

Shatter who will get somethign related to justice or children.

Varadkar will be given something like Enterprise or Communications.

Olivia Mitchell will get nothing, she will be one of the casulties of the coup and she shares with both Matthews and Shatter.

Frances Fitzgerald will get something.

Lucinda Creigton will get jnr role.

Brian Hayes, Fergus O'Dowd, Michael Ring, Simon Coveney are in the mix as well.

I have to laugh at suggestion Michael Ring, the heckler in cheif, gets Ceann Comhairle.
It would be like putting the fox in charge of the chickens.
Pity neddy o'keefe is gone, they would have made some double act. :rolleyes:

EDIT: Labour will have Gilmore, Quinn, Burton, Howlin, Rabbitte, White and Shortall.
Quinn could have been runner for finance but that would have been hard for Burton to swallow.
I think Quinn will get Foreign Affairs if Gilmore doesn't take it.


Oh and john deasy will get to clean the toilets with only a tootbrush.

OS119

anyone got any ideas on how Labour and FG will square the circle on their respective Defence and Foriegn policies?

FG canvassed on a 'ditch the triple-lock, get into partnerships with whoever we like' policy, while Labour stuck with their traditional 'neutrality, triple-lock, and lets not jave a policy' policy.

is this actually an important policy area for any of the powerful people in the respective parties or is it something either side could ditch in favour of a quiet life?

jmayo

OS119 wrote: »

anyone got any ideas on how Labour and FG will square the circle on their respective Defence and Foriegn policies?

FG canvassed on a 'ditch the triple-lock, get into partnerships with whoever we like' policy, while Labour stuck with their traditional 'neutrality, triple-lock, and lets not jave a policy' policy.

is this actually an important policy area for any of the powerful people in the respective parties or is it something either side could ditch in favour of a quiet life?

In the grand scheme of things neutrality matters didly squat.

d'Oracle

baalthor wrote: »

Dr Leo is also a doctor, maybe he could have a go at Health?

He doesn't want it.
He said it in the times last week.

johngalway

jmayo wrote: »

I have to laugh at suggestion Michael Ring, the heckler in cheif, gets Ceann Comhairle.
It would be like putting the fox in charge of the chickens.
Pity neddy o'keefe is gone, they would have made some double act. :rolleyes:

Ah can you imagine though, some uppity member of the opposition disses Michael. Off goes the robe and we see him live on TV jumping over TD's and benches to knock the snot out of the heckler and haul them out personally

TGQ

i think Pat Rabbitte will get Finance as he would have a lot of similar ideas as FG and would be more acceptable to FG. A bit like FF/PD Coalition when they gave it to Charlie McCreavey (as someone said at the time he is a PD in FF)

fuzzball

3DataModem wrote: »

Hmmm... not a fan of FG or Labour but both seem like OK choices.

God forbid its that Joan Burton nightmare.

apparently Joan Burton is smarter than both of them.

SB-08

TGQ wrote: »

i think Pat Rabbitte will get Finance as he would have a lot of similar ideas as FG and would be more acceptable to FG. A bit like FF/PD Coalition when they gave it to Charlie McCreavey (as someone said at the time he is a PD in FF)

Ivan Yates says in todays Indo that Rabbitte is his prediction due to the close relationship he has with Enda and his ability and pro-business outlook - would be, as you say acceptable to FG just like Quinn was in the 90's. Joan has no chance. I have money on the Rabbit when his odds were 6/1 - he's now 11/4 though. :eek:

GymJim

As Labour will require 6 ministries, my thinking would be:

Taoiseach: Enda Kenny
Tanaiste: Eamonn Gilmore

Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food: Willie Penrose / Sean Sherlock
Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism: Michael Ring / Simon Coveney
Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources: Leo Varadkar
Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs: Fergus O'Dowd
Minister for Defence: Billy Timmins
Minister for Education and Science: Ruairi Quinn
Minister for Public Sector Reform: Richard Bruton
Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment: Joan Burton
Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government: Phil Hogan
Minister for Finance: Pat Rabbitte
Minister for Foreign Affairs: Eamonn Gilmore
Minister for Health and Children: James Reilly
Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform: Alan Shatter
Minister for Social and Family Affairs: Róisín Shortall
Minister for Transport: Michael Noonan

Ceann Comhairle: Olivia Mitchell

For the most part that would be a pretty strong line-up, perhaps with the exception of Sports/Tourism and Agriculture. I think Transport would be the only place Noonan could be put as it would satisfy him as a large ministry but also limit the damage he could do (ala Noel Dempsey).

Agreed on Rabbitte for Finance. The most likely candidate agreement could be reached on between parties...no way would Labour accept Noonan or Bruton nor would FG accept Burton. Another possibility would be Quinn but I think he's a sure bet for Education.

Could also see Burton and Varadkar swapping if Labour get the Finance role.

Chucky the tree

Don't really see how Labour can go after Finance, they'll be told where to go and rightly so being the junior partner.

NSNO

Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food: Sherlock
Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism: Coveney
Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources: Varadkar
Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs: O'Dowd
Minister for Defence: Timmins
Minister for Education and Science: Gilmore
Minister for Public Sector Reform: Creighton
Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment: Burton
Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government: Hogan
Minister for Finance: Bruton
Minister for Foreign Affairs: Noonan
Minister for Health and Children: Reilly
Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform: Quinn
Minister for Social Protection: Shortall
Minister for Transport: Rabbitte

Ke

SB-08

Ivan Yates on why Rabbitte will get Finance.

Pat Rabbitte is my banker to be Finance Minister. As the Labour nominee, Gilmore will entrust this pivotal position to his closest, ex-Democratic Left, confidante. Pat and Enda, both Mayo men, enjoy excellent longstanding relations (remember the Mullingar Accord). Rabbitte will be tough at repelling vested interests and smart enough not to be prisoner to formal advice of civil servants.

Btw for anyone fond of betting on politics - Olivia Mitchell is on a very good value 10/1 for the CC. Well worth it as her name has been mentioned quite a bit.

If Rabbitte get's Finance - FG will likely create a new Ministry for not only Public Sector Reform but Banking Reform too likely to be given to Noonnan with Richard Bruton heading up Enterprise. Joan Burton will not be happy.