Magners League - remaining 6 rounds

CouchSmart

The league's only got 6 rounds left and the play off system's making it a really interesting run in. As far as I can tell there's 6 teams in the running at the minute:


Munster:

Aironi (A)
Dragons (H)
Blues (A)
Leinster (H)
Scarlets (A)
Ospreys (A)
Connacht (H)

Currently they're way ahead of the pack, after this weekend it'll most likely be a 10 point lead. It's not an easy run in for them with 3 tough away trips and a couple of derby matches at home so there's a chance some points will be dropped - they can afford it to an extent with top 4 near guaranteed.

Prediction: 2nd

Leinster:

Scarlets (H)
Dragons (A)
Munster (A)
Ulster (H)
Aironi (A)
Warriors (H)

As of tonight they're second in the league. Not too bad of a run in so they should be aiming for a strong finish to the league - HEC may affect performance though.

Prediction: 3rd

Cardiff:

Edinburgh (A)
Munster (H)
Ospreys (A)
Connacht (A)
Treviso (H)
Scarlets (A)
Dragons (A) Postponed, date tbc.

An interesting run in, not too bad, not too good. Should be aiming to win 4/5 of the last 7 games. No European commitments should help. It'll be a close call with Ulster.

Prediction: 4th/5th

Ospreys:

Connacht (H)
Warriors (H)
Edinburgh(A)
Cardiff (H)
Dragons (A)
Munster (H)
Aironi (A)

A fairly good run in for them and with such a strong squad and no European distractions I expect them to do very well in the coming weeks.

Prediction: 1st

Scarlets:

Leinster (A)
Treviso (A)
Ulster (A)
Munster (H)
Warriors (A)
Cardiff (H)

A tough run in could be their undoing after a good start. They've fallen away lately, I expect them to keep falling.

Prediction: 6th

Ulster:

Aironi (H)
Dragons (H)
Warriors (A)
Scarlets (H)
Leinster (A)
Connacht (H)
Dragons (A)

Not too bad of a run in for the northern province. Added focus on the HEC may have a effect but I hope not, they've a great chance of a top 4 finish.

Prediction 4th/5th




Mouth watering possible semis:
Ospreys v Ulster/Cardiff
Munster v Leinster

It's been a great league this year. As a Leinster fan I'll be very disappointed if we don't make the top four and in all honesty I want to win nearly as much as I want the HEC - time for us all to start respecting our league!

What do you all think?

durkadurka

Munster number 1, ospreys and Leinster vying for second. Real toss up for fourth.
Ulster have an ok run in

Also dragons still in it.

Cardiff and Scarlets flattering to deceive, only two more home games each, one of which against munster!

ShamoBuc

1. Munster
2. Ospreys
3. Ulster
4. Leinster

the above could change in so many ways that it nearly isn't worth typing.
It will be interesting to look back at predictions however!

durkadurka

This was a great thread last year, things changed so much. The ospreys revival rings a bell. Should be great to watch.

After next week we have a three week break for most, then a post 6n game without the main internationals again.

CouchSmart

durkadurka wrote: »

Also dragons still in it.

I thought about putting them in but realistically they're 10 points off 6th placed Ulster - I know they've only played 14 games but still two winning try bonuses in their next two games to catch up, it's not in them.

ambid

Excellent thread CouchSmart. Especially the point about respecting our league.

I love the Magners.

No idea who'll finish where, but it's really exciting. Six teams looking strong. You're right about Leinster's HEC campaign maybe taking the focus, but on the run in the tough games (except Munster) are at home. I still think they look strong for second.

jolley123

1.Opsreys
2.Munster
3.Leinster
4.Scarlets/Ulster

Really hard to call, bonus points are gold at this time. Ospreys have only this to focus on and I predict them getting a fair amount of points from here on. Munster have nice enough fixtures to contend with and also a heathy lead. Leinster should be back to best when the squad return. Scarlets have been doing well but the fixture list for Ulster has a couple of games where they can take 5 pointers. They've shown enough bottle this year to make me believe in them.

overshoot

with that run in i reckon ulster should make it into 4th, leinster (A) would be the only game you would expect them to lose (dragons in wales on the last day i would normally include but i think they will be in no mans land with nothing to play for) munster are so far ahead anything other than second would take a spectacular implosion. leinster/ospreys for the other two places but the blues wont be far off

Podge_irl

CouchSmart wrote: »

As a Leinster fan I'll be very disappointed if we don't make the top four and in all honesty I want to win nearly as much as I want the HEC - time for us all to start respecting our league!

I think Leinster have been respecting the league far longer than anyone else. This didn't always end up in results (which I think in itself reflects the strength of the league), but I don't recall them ever giving anything less then 100% under Cheika. He essentially built the HEC winning team on the bedrock of the successful ML team.

We should make the top 4. Schmidt has been taking advantage of the playoffs I think to blood a lot of new players while still keeping Leinster eyeing a top 4 place. We should win all our home games and our away games are the two easiest ones in the Dragons and Aironi and an away game against Munster that is 50/50 at worst.

CouchSmart

Podge_irl wrote: »

I think Leinster have been respecting the league far longer than anyone else. This didn't always end up in results (which I think in itself reflects the strength of the league), but I don't recall them ever giving anything less then 100% under Cheika. He essentially built the HEC winning team on the bedrock of the successful ML team.

Ye, totally agree. I was talking about fans though, a lot of people don't rate the Magners and I think they should. It's right up there in terms of quality.

CouchSmart

CouchSmart wrote: »

Ye, totally agree. I was talking about fans though, a lot of people don't rate the Magners and I think they should. It's right up there in terms of quality.

TBH I think it's better than the slog of the English premiership. There's far more entertaining rugby being played. This mightn't be a popular opinion but I reckon it's better than the TOP14 as well, which is starting to suffer from Premiership-itis.

TheRevolution

As a fan I value the Magners greatly. Its the bread and butter and makes up the majority of my rugby viewing. HC games are merely a treat every so often. I think most teams take the ML very seriously. O'Gara is probably completely alone in his comments that he "struggles to get up for Magners games" amongst the players. Whilst I don't doubt that the players get more excited about HC games I don't buy into O'Gara's opinion that the ML is worthless, it contains some of the best players in the world and is highly competitive.

thomond2006

Good timing for the thread!

Munster will surely finish top and Leinster will be in the top 4 too. The other two playoff places are a lottery at the moment.

[Jackass]

1.
2.
3.
4.

thomond2006

(Assuming both Ospreys and Munster win tommorrow)

I think the 3 Irish provinces and Ospreys will make it. Scarlets have fallen away slightly and Cardiff's run in looks very difficult.

durkadurka

thomond2006 wrote: »

(Assuming both Ospreys and Munster win tommorrow)

I think the 3 Irish provinces and Ospreys will make it. Scarlets have fallen away slightly and Cardiff's run in looks very difficult.

Looking like it now.
Ospreys a good bet for second due to easy run in and no HEC distraction.

Cardiff could still do it IMO. Assuming dragons
lose to munster, that's them and Scarlets fading away...

Leinster might need to fight for a result at thomond

GerM

Ospreys vs Glasgow: http://www.dart1801.blogspot.com/

Ospreys cruising 17-0 after 17mins. They're playing well but Glasgow are actually shambolic. Offering no resistance whatsoever. The second try was embarrassing defensively. Not doing Irish provinces any favours....

GerM

durkadurka wrote: »

Looking like it now.
Ospreys a good bet for second due to easy run in and no HEC distraction

I'd go one further and say they're looking like they could pinch top spot. All their remaining games are very winnable. Only away matches are Aironi and the Dragons. They also have Munster home which would be an 8 pointer. Should secure a few bonus points in their run in.

durkadurka

Munster would have to implode for that to happen, key match is home to Leinster, if Leinster win that it's a great finish, if munster win it's a done deal

GerM

durkadurka wrote: »

Munster would have to implode for that to happen, key match is home to Leinster, if Leinster win that it's a great finish, if munster win it's a done deal

To an extent but they've a very tough run in. Away to the top 3 Welsh regions and Leinster to still play all of who will be scrapping to finish in the top 4. It looks likely they'll be 8 points clear of the Ospreys after tonight. The Ospreys will probably favourites to beat them in Swansea which would leave the gap at 4. Screw up in any game out of Cardiff away, Llanelli away or Leinster home and Ospreys can potentially go ahead. If Munster can win 3 out of 4 of those games (assuming they beat Dragons and Connacht at home) they'll top the table. Would be a great achievement though to do that. Some really tough games.

durkadurka

I suppose if they lose at home to Leinster away to ospreys and to someone else it is pretty much an implosion.

They'll surely win tonight and at home to conn.

This play off thing is great. If it didn't exist I reckon munster would already be coasting to the title, and Leinster would be phoning it in.

GerM

BP secured with a length of the field turnover try. Repeated missed tackles and not wanting to know coming as standard from Glasgow throughout build up to try. 32-6 after 69 minutes.

Very weak side put out from Glasgow but shouldn't be an excuse for so many basic missed tackles and general apathy.

thomond2006

God Glasgow have really gone down the toilet this season.

CouchSmart

Looking at the table as it is, it's hard to see anybody but Munster and Ospreys getting home semi finals. I'm still of the opinion Ospreys will sneak 1st place, they've a fairly easy run in and no European games. I'm really loving the play off system, so much good rugby to finish off the season with.

Digifriendly

thomond2006 wrote: »

God Glasgow have really gone down the toilet this season.

Scottish rugby in a bit of a mess at the moment - Edinburgh can't seem to
win either and if Scotland lose at Twickenham (as you would expect) they're almost certainly in a wooden spoon decider the following week vs Italy.

[Jackass]

I think Scarlets loss to Leinster has put them out of the race somewhat.

I think second place is between Leinster and Ospreys and the final place is between Cardiff and Ulster, with Ulster sneaking it I think.

Leinster should win all the remaining games, bar Munster away, if Leinster do win the Munster away game, I think we'll get second place, if not, I think we'll get third.

More or less going to play Ospreys in the semi, the only thing to be decided is home or away.

Either way, I think we owe them one for last season and would fancy our chances, home or away.

The other semi will be Munster at home to Ulster or Cardiff, most likely Ulster imo.

If two Irish teams make the final, regardless of league finish, I'm pretty sure it'll be played in Aviva.

buck65

Ok I've it all sorted
The following table is based on 1) Munster beating Leinster at home and 2) all the other games going on form including Ulster beating Scarlets at home a week before their HCup 1/4F(?)

Munster 74pts.
Ospreys 74pts
Ulster 69pts.
Leinster 69 pts.
Cardiff 67pts.
Scarlets 62pts.

So very tight at the top with Ulster maybe slipping in there and perhaps a Munster Leinster semi in Thomond? Of course if Leinster win it could be in Dublin!

seanin4711

Aironi home 11th march
Arioni away 26th march
Edinburgh Home 1/2/3 April
Cardiff Home 16/17/18 April
Ulster away 22/23/24 April
Munster away 6/7/8 May

Our 3 home games are very winnable and if we can get some bonus points along the way in the away games we should be in with a shout for our best ever finish!

thomond2006

http://www.magnersleague.com/matchcentre/table.php

Ulster 25-23 Dragons
Glasgow 25-17 Treviso

It's a bit easier to read the table now that most teams have played the same number of games.

Dragons' remote chances of making the playoffs are all but extinguished now.

REMAINING FIXTURES (thanks to couchsmart):

Munster:

Blues (A)
Leinster (H)
Scarlets (A)
Ospreys (A)
Connacht (H)
Leinster:

Dragons (A)
Munster (A)
Ulster (H)
Aironi (A)
Warriors (H)
Cardiff:

Munster (H)
Ospreys (A)
Connacht (A)
Treviso (H)
Scarlets (A)
Dragons (A) Postponed, date tbc.

Ospreys:

Edinburgh(A)
Cardiff (H)
Dragons (A)
Munster (H)
Aironi (A)

Scarlets:

Treviso (A)
Ulster (A)
Munster (H)
Warriors (A)
Cardiff (H)

Ulster:

Warriors (A)
Scarlets (H)
Leinster (A)
Connacht (H)
Dragons (A)

I think the Scarlets run-in is horrible, they could easily lose their next three games on the bounce. The current top 5 will contest the 4 places IMO.

CouchSmart

It's really hard to call. I reckon Munster and Ospreys are guaranteed home semis. Their game on the second last weekend should be a big one. I really think Ospreys are going to win all their remaining games so it still remains a tough task for Munster to stay on top, they've a much harder run in, IMO.

Great games coming up over the next few weekends too:

Fri 25th Mar; Blues v Munster

Sat 2nd Apr; Munster v Leinster

Sat 16th Apr; Leinster v Ulster

Sat 23rd Apr; Ospreys v Munster

Fri 6th May; Munster v Connacht

Should be interesting to say the least!

phog

thomond2006 wrote: »

Munster:

Blues (A)
Leinster (H)
Scarlets (A)
Ospreys (A)
Connacht (H)

I think the Scarlets run-in is horrible, they could easily lose their next three games on the bounce. The current top 5 will contest the 4 places IMO.

Munster's isnt brilliant either, we could conceivably lose to Blues, Leinster and Ospreys, would expect us to win the other 2 with a BP win over Connacht, if needed.

CouchSmart

phog wrote: »

Munster's isnt brilliant either, we could conceivably lose to Blues, Leinster and Ospreys, would expect us to win the other 2 with a BP win over Connacht, if needed.

Scarlets won't be a walk over either. At home, still playing for a top 4 finish. It's unlikely but Munster could be looking at losing 4 of their remaining games! Leinster at home will be the big one, a win will lift the whole province, another loss and they might go into their shells.

Also, my post from the end of previous page(only quoting because it highlights some mouth watering games over the next few weeks)

CouchSmart wrote: »

It's really hard to call. I reckon Munster and Ospreys are guaranteed home semis. Their game on the second last weekend should be a big one. I really think Ospreys are going to win all their remaining games so it still remains a tough task for Munster to stay on top, they've a much harder run in, IMO.

Great games coming up over the next few weekends too:

Fri 25th Mar; Blues v Munster

Sat 2nd Apr; Munster v Leinster

Sat 16th Apr; Leinster v Ulster

Sat 23rd Apr; Ospreys v Munster

Fri 6th May; Munster v Connacht

Should be interesting to say the least!

durkadurka

Looking at the fixtures for this weekend, with teams resting many of their big guns, it could be game changing.


Munster away to Cardiff.
Ulster and ospreys away in Scotland.
Leinster away to dragons.
One or two leading teams are going to come a cropper I reckon.

Connacht away to improving aironi.

profitius

Just looking there I see a very good bet. The Ospreys are 5/1 to finish top of the league. They're 9pts behind Munster but they're out of Europe and have a far easier run in than Munster! 5/1 is good value. Leinster will be concentrating on Europe too.

CatFromHue

the top 6 who are the only teams in with a chance of the playoffs remaining games are

munsters......leinster........ospreys.......scarlets......ulster...........blues
blues a.........dragons a....edinburgh a..treviso h.....glasgow a.....munster h
leinster h......munster a....blues h........ulster a.......scarlets h.....ospreys a
scarlets a.....ulster h.......dragons a.....munster h....leinster a......connacht a
ospreys a.....aironi a........munster h....glasgow a....connacht h....treviso h
connacht h...glasgow h....aironi a........blues h........dragons a.....dragons a
.........................................................................................scarlets a

munster play 3 away games to other teams in the top 6 and also host two inter pro games. the fact that they are 14 points ahead of 5th at the moment you'd think they'd make the playoffs.

leinster only play 2 of the top 6, one of which is at home. so they should make the playoffs.

the ospreys could well win 3 or 4 of their last few games so i think they'll make the play offs.

ulster could win 4 of their last 5 games.

the scarlets have to beat ulster in ulster if they are to get to the playoffs, which i dont think they will.

the blues play 4 away games so may only win 2 of their remaining games. so i dont think they'll make the playoffs.

there is still alot of rugby to be played though

Podge_irl

profitius wrote: »

Just looking there I see a very good bet. The Ospreys are 5/1 to finish top of the league. They're 9pts behind Munster but they're out of Europe and have a far easier run in than Munster! 5/1 is good value. Leinster will be concentrating on Europe too.

All depends on the Leinster game imo. Lose that and they could well lose 4 out of their last 5 games. I think they're safe if they manage to win that one though (thanks for the heads up though, put a sneaky bet on the Spreys).

[Jackass]

Yeah I think Munster have the toughest run in.

They are home to probably the only team capable of beating them at home and away to 3 of the chasing pack who will be all out to secure best possible play-off place.

Four very tough games, followed by a derby game and Connacht on form. I don't think there'll be a Munster implosion, but deffinitley the chasing pack will be hoping they drop some points here and there.

Leinsters run in is ok, but 2nd is probably the best we can hope for.

Need to win all our remaining games for a home semi.

andrewdcs

I dunno, Munster have quite a cushion and will be looking to top. Looking at the runs closely I strongly think Ospreys will claim second Leinster 3rd and I reckon Ulster might nick the 4th spot by a bp (or do I just hope that?).

I think Munster have a very realistic chance of Amlin final, Leinster will hopefully get through Leicester with home crowd help, so full squads will be knackered. I think Ospreys could win a final if Leinster make it to the semi.

phog

Ospreys are out of Europe and have scored the most tries(50) in this season's ML the next closest to them is Munster on 38. Of their remaining fixtures the minimum they should get would be 20. That would give them at least 74 points on the table.

Munster are currently on 63 and assuming they lose to Ospreys that would leave them 4 other games to pick up 11 points points to remain ahead of Ospreys. Assuming that we can get 5 from the Connacht game that would leave us with 3 games (one being against Leinster) to get 6 points, it's nail biting for us.

Leinster are in currently in 3rd place on 51 points, they would hope to win the two away games to Dragon and Arioni, win the home game against Glasgow with bonus point wins. Then fight out with Munster (away) and Ulster (home) for whatever they can get. It's tight for them to get into the top two.

[Jackass]

I don't think Munster will lose top spot, I think it's between Leinster and Ospreys for second. Probably Ulster in 4th. (hopefully).

I think it'll be either a Munster v Ospreys / Munster v Leinster final.

Although I'm still sick from last seasons final, the play-offs have been a fantastic addition to the league.

phog

If the S/Finals turns out to be Munster V Ulster and Opsreys V Leinster then I see the final as Munster V Ospreys, both home teams winning the semis.

The final will be similar to last year with the Ospreys winning it

laft foot

[Jackass] wrote: »

I don't think Munster will lose top spot, I think it's between Leinster and Ospreys for second. Probably Ulster in 4th. (hopefully).

I think it'll be either a Munster v Ospreys / Munster v Leinster final.

Although I'm still sick from last seasons final, the play-offs have been a fantastic addition to the league.

I know the mods will disagree but please jim can you fix it so that we can have a Munster v Leinster final!!

jacothelad

Brian Mclaughlin seems to have forgotten to take his medication again. We are back to selecting players out of position and leaving better players on the bench/ out of the squad. Totally crazy. We need to win in Glasgow. If we lose and Cardiff and Scarlets win as seems likely we are basically back in 6th with no hope. This is the business end of the season. The reason why they play. Danielli - a wing - at 15 and Gaston - a 15 at 11, Pienaar, a world class 9 at 10 and Wallace - a 10 ish/ at 12. Crazy stuff.

Podge_irl

jacothelad wrote: »

The reason why they play. Danielli - a wing - at 15 and Gaston - a 15 at 11, Pienaar, a world class 9 at 10 and Wallace - a 10 ish/ at 12. Crazy stuff.

Wallace is a 12 and Pienaar is a 9/10 (he's more of a ten then Wallace anyway).

CouchSmart

Ulster can move up to 2nd tonight with a win. Cardiff can get to 3rd with a win. Munster need a win to keep their advantage over the chasers.

CouchSmart

Cardiff losing tonight leaves Ulster, Leinster and Ospreys firmly in charge of their own destinies.

thomond2006

CouchSmart wrote: »

Cardiff losing tonight leaves Ulster, Leinster and Ospreys firmly in charge of their own destinies.

Cardiff still have to travel to the Welsh regions and Connacht. I can't see them winning all of those games.

durkadurka

Assuming munster beat Connacht at home and pick up the odd bp they are pretty much a nailed on certainty for home semi.

If they beat Scarlets away it's a home final in all likelihood. That's a conservative approach, assuming they lose to ospreys and Leinster. Tonight was a big win.

thomond2006

Edinburgh leading Ospreys 20-16 with a few minutes to go, it would be a great result for the provinces if Edinburgh hold on.

durkadurka

If it ends that way then munster should stroll to home final advantage.

thomond2006

durkadurka wrote: »

If it ends that way then munster should stroll to home final advantage.

Indeed, 4 more points would pretty much seal top spot for Munster.