Exit Poll - When & How Accurate ?

Rabidlamb

I seem to remember the exit poll for the 2007 election being announced by Brian Dobson within seconds of the polls closing.
I also remember it being deadly accurate when compared to the final count.

Is it the same procedure tonight at 10pm ?.

MaceFace

Rabidlamb wrote: »

I seem to remember the exit poll for the 2007 election being announced by Brian Dobson within seconds of the polls closing.
I also remember it being deadly accurate when compared to the final count.

Is it the same procedure tonight at 10pm ?.

No - RTE have said it will be 9am tomorrow.

hotmail.com

It's 8am tomorrow morning.

The last time it was weirdly accurate.

RTE radio tomorrow - Morning Ireland 8am to 11am, then election coverage until 3am.

bleg

Irish Times usually have one too, the paper goes live at about 1 am.

dave1982

Vincent will have a few predictions tonight:D

Rabidlamb

MaceFace wrote: »

No - RTE have said it will be 9am tomorrow.

Any reason given for the change ?.
It'll just mean some unofficial exit poll getting the jump on RTE.
VB will have some idea from the Irish Times by 11pm.

DoesNotCompute

Last time around, RTE's exit polls were 99% accurate, or so I'm told.

eoinbn

There is a sense of shame among certain FF voters so they might be slightly under represented in this exit poll- that's just my opinion.

Rabidlamb

eoinbn wrote: »

There is a sense of shame among certain FF voters so they might be slightly under represented in this exit poll- that's just my opinion.

Ah, the party faithful, they still reckon they'll get 24%.
I can't wait to see the look on their faces if they get 16% or less.
Perhaps Twitter will have some early leaks on exit polls.

CDfm

Arent these things normally conducted via the individual parties tallymen.

They are quite precise but on this occassion the real problem will be that they will not really be able to count on the party faithful.

In that way it will be difficult to call.

Dubol

dave1982 wrote: »

Vincent will have a few predictions tonight:D

Vincent Brown for President

Rabidlamb

Anything stirring in relation to Exit polls.
I did hear Newstalk earlier saying they'll have something after 10pm.
Have those who Tweet heard anything ?.

Blowfish

Rabidlamb wrote: »

Anything stirring in relation to Exit polls.
I did hear Newstalk earlier saying they'll have something after 10pm.
Have those who Tweet heard anything ?.

So far all I've seen tweeting around the place is the high turnout figures. No exit poll results yet.

Rabidlamb

Found this tweet on Newstalk site:

Newstalkfm #GE11 As soon as the state imposed moratorium ends 'Coleman at Large' is live tonight from 22:00 16 minutes ago

They say they have an exit poll, watch this space.

Ruire

dave1982 wrote: »

Vincent will have a few predictions tonight:D

I'd put more faith in a gypsy using palmistry.

johngalway

8am on Morning Ireland on Rte Radio 1. They were just talking about it on the 9 o'clock news, said the last exit poll was accurate to within 0.05%.

fifth

How do you know newstalk will have an exit poll? Is VB on tonight, will they have anything?

county man

funkyflea wrote: »

How do you know newstalk will have an exit poll? Is VB on tonight, will they have anything?

Vincent Browne is on at 11.30 so Im sure there will be some news on the exit polls.

loldog

Dubol wrote: »

Vincent Brown for President

Ah would give over! Stop harassing Vincent!

.

gandalf

county man wrote: »

Vincent Browne is on at 11.30 so Im sure there will be some news on the exit polls.

You sure about that it's not showing on Entertainment.ie.

Blowfish

gandalf wrote: »

You sure about that it's not showing on Entertainment.ie.

TV3's site says so in any case.

Monty Burnz

eoinbn wrote: »

There is a sense of shame among certain FF voters so they might be slightly under represented in this exit poll- that's just my opinion.

It says so much that people will still vote for them even though they know it is wrong. It's like a compulsion with some of these Fianna Failures, they don't know you vote for someone else.

wonderfulname

Newstalk live

The poll they are talking about is emigrants voting preference, that is, people who can't vote anyway...

county man

gandalf wrote: »

You sure about that it's not showing on Entertainment.ie.

Trust me.He is on tonight at 11.30.

InTheTrees

They usually have exit poll results within a few minutes of polls closing.

Is rte sitting on its results until tomorrow?

Inquitus

Only exit poll avail atm is PP

FG >=81 5/4
Lab =<35 8/15
FF >=25 1/2

johngalway

Inquitus wrote: »

Only exit poll avail atm is PP

FG 81+ 5/4

I'm no good with odds, is that good or bad?

Blowfish

johngalway wrote: »

I'm no good with odds, is that good or bad?

That depends if you support FG or not

Rabidlamb

Newstalk should be up for false advertising, all they had was the results of ballotbox.ie for the overseas disenfranchised voters.

It was rubbish FG 30% Labour 25% FF 8% Ind 18% (from memory).
Nasty trick to pull.

Mr.Micro

InTheTrees wrote: »

They usually have exit poll results within a few minutes of polls closing.

Is rte sitting on its results until tomorrow?

In mourning perhaps at the possible loss of its idol the FF party

InTheTrees

Rabidlamb wrote: »

Nasty trick to pull.

Not as nasty as RTE having the exit poll results and not telling until 8am tomorrow.

zig

Rabidlamb wrote: »

Newstalk should be up for false advertising, all they had was the results of ballotbox.ie for the overseas disenfranchised voters.

It was rubbish FG 30% Labour 25% FF 8% Ind 18% (from memory).
Nasty trick to pull.

where are ballotbox getting those results from? they making them up obviously yea

edit: sorry should have read properly who ballotbox are, never mind

Suryavarman

Rabidlamb wrote: »

Newstalk should be up for false advertising, all they had was the results of ballotbox.ie for the overseas disenfranchised voters.

It was rubbish FG 30% Labour 25% FF 8% Ind 18% (from memory).
Nasty trick to pull.

Pretty disappointed with that myself. Was looking forward to respectable exit poll. Pretty similar to the boards poll though.

johngalway

Blowfish wrote: »

That depends if you support FG or not

:pac:

Yeah, I guess so.

LeopoldButters

this is total crap by RTE holding back the results to promote their morning show at 8am. I hope VinnyB has something when hes on at 11:30pm tonight

InTheTrees

LeopoldButters wrote: »

this is total crap by RTE holding back the results to promote their morning show at 8am. I hope VinnyB has something when hes on at 11:30pm tonight

I honestly cant believe it.

They must be going to some considerable efforts for the news not to leak out. A crazy state of affairs and rte deserves to be smacked for it.

We need to boycott them at 8am and get the result from here.

nesf

johngalway wrote: »

I'm no good with odds, is that good or bad?

In short, PP have the most likely outcome by far for FG to get more than 81 seats. Which is getting extremely close to single party majority Government territory.

3ndahalfof6

county man wrote: »

Vincent Browne is on at 11.30 so Im sure there will be some news on the exit polls.

do you know will there be an online facility to watch this live.

dermotot

72fg, 35l, 31ff, 11sf, 13 ind, 4green...
any bets?

LeopoldButters

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

do you know will there be an online facility to watch this live.

http://www.tv3.ie/live.php

Profiler

dermotot wrote: »

72fg, 35l, 31ff, 11sf, 13 ind, 4green...
any bets?

Yes, I bet that you are wrong.

3ndahalfof6

dermotot wrote: »

72fg, 35l, 31ff, 11sf, 13 ind, 4green...
any bets?

yeh I bet your living in the year 2007,

to many to the greens, not enough to the IND and SF

your going to have to excuse me if the typing is all over the place I'm doing it from the ground in stitches, FF 31 geeeeeeeeees.

3ndahalfof6

LeopoldButters wrote: »

http://www.tv3.ie/live.php

TY VM Sir.

Donal Og O Baelach

Dubol wrote: »

Vincent Brown for President

WHAT?? WHAT? ..This is - This is EX-TRORD-IN-ARY!!

3ndahalfof6

Donal Og O Baelach wrote: »

WHAT?? WHAT? ..This is - This is EX-TRORD-IN-ARY!!

but its true Vinnie

SarahBM

going to have to try and convince the parents to turn over to Vini B instead of the Late Late

Mr.Micro

SarahBM wrote: »

going to have to try and convince the parents to turn over to Vini B instead of the Late Late

It finished at 11 to night:)

dave1982

SarahBM wrote: »

going to have to try and convince the parents to turn over to Vini B instead of the Late Late

Vincent waits for late late to be over;)

SarahBM

then graham norton was put on. got them to switch over for 5 mins. but the mother started giving out so missed the drama.
just saw a lot of shouting! oh well. roll on the counts.

3greenrizla's

where's the exit polls? such a b@lls, I'm working @ 8 in the morning and have very limited internet & no radio.

the only one I could find is..
http://www.irishelection2011.com/exit-poll-ge11/

there must be something better out there - If not, the next time there is an election I am going to start a polling company, just so I can sell the results to news organisations.

Victor

CDfm wrote: »

Arent these things normally conducted via the individual parties tallymen.

The tallymen won't see anything until 9am or later.