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Are Landlords really getting these prices

  • 24-02-2011 10:55am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 146 ✭✭


    Hi am currently renting a 2 bed house in Dublin 12 for 825 pm. Lease is up in May and I won't be renewing it. House is next to a park and am having too many probs with parking and screaming drunk teenagers. :rolleyes:

    Have started looking around the area for somewhere else and I cant get over the price difference. On average it's looking like 1100 pm +. Now the houses I'm looking at are in the same estate and are the same size but some are in a much worse condition than the one I'm in now.

    Are landlords getting anywhere near these prices?
    Our rent is paid on time every month. We have references from neighbours and landlords. Just getting worried seeing whats out there as there is no way I can stick another year here. :( Nor can I afford much more than what I'm paying now.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,493 ✭✭✭RedXIV


    I'd say most are chancing their arms. Just find a places you like and offer reasonable rents for them. I'd be pretty sure landlords will consider decent offers


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 162 ✭✭Penguino


    Rented properties generally go for less than they are advertised for. Put in an offer and see how you get on


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 335 ✭✭LeahK


    In the same boat OP, have been looking for the last two months for an apartment near-ish the north city centre, 2 beds and modern enough. Think I can find any?:(

    It seems to be impossible to get anything decent for under 1100! I really cannot believe the prices. I have asked a few landlords about their prices and none seem to want to budge more than 25-50 quid less than asking.

    Either the market is still very expensive or they are all chancing their arms.:confused:
    Maybe the lack of people buying has the rents going up?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,455 ✭✭✭✭Monty Burnz


    Don't forget that rent allowance distorts the market by putting an artificially high floor on rents. Thus, any kind of kip of bedsit at all will cost 400 euros, whereas in (wealthy, non-IMF-run) Berlin, 400 will get you a nice 2 bed apartment.

    The state pays for half of all rented accommodation in this country - if we saw the rent allowance slashed, then landlords could not rely on getting a bare minimum of 400 plus for any dump, and rents would fall for everyone (including those on rent allowance of course). We'd be saving the state a fortune and allowing private renters to rent at lower prices (giving them more spending money to pour back into the economy). The downside would be that struggling BTL owners might go bust - but I don't see why it's fair to distort the market and screw everyone else for the benefit of landlords.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭3DataModem


    Totally agree. We will never see properly priced apartments (eg 60-90k) until rent allowance is tackled.

    So much crap rental property for 500-600 pm.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    I know I will get the typical response for this but, rents in decent areas of Dublin are going to go up. People are not buying or selling so new entrants have to go somewhere. Emigration from Dublin will not decrease the demand enough. Landlords do not need to reduce prices and the next move is up.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,455 ✭✭✭✭Monty Burnz


    OMD wrote: »
    I know I will get the typical response for this but, rents in decent areas of Dublin are going to go up. People are not buying or selling so new entrants have to go somewhere. Emigration from Dublin will not decrease the demand enough. Landlords do not need to reduce prices and the next move is up.
    Wait until tens of thousands of NAMA properties are released onto the market in some form. They can't just mothball these buildings - they will disintegrate in a decade if they are not maintained.

    Falling demand (emigration)
    Less money (tax rises, pay cuts, unemployment)
    Increasing supply (NAMA, forced sales etc)

    Yup, rents are only moving one way alright.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    i asked one landlord to drop a 100 euro off the advertised rent and they wouldnt entertain it. We'll see how long that place up on daft for, lot of unrealistic people out there :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,378 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    Wait until tens of thousands of NAMA properties are released onto the market in some form. They can't just mothball these buildings - they will disintegrate in a decade if they are not maintained.
    .

    Yes, but look where those properties are...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,455 ✭✭✭✭Monty Burnz


    Yes, but look where those properties are...
    There are loads of them in Dublin. Have you been out to Sandyford recently? The place is crawling with empty apartments. I just saw this place recently... http://www.vantageapartments.ie/ ...near the Bewley's hotel in Leopardstown. Must be about 250 empty apartments there alone. I was there on a weekday evening in January - about 5% of the places had lights on.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,006 ✭✭✭MistyCheese


    I viewed a studio apartment on Tuesday which was entered on Daft 6 weeks ago. The advertised price was €550 a month and I asked if the landlord would be willing to part with it for €500 a month. I was told that I wasn't the first to have asked and the landlord wasn't willing to take €500. So I asked if he'd go as far as €525 and the agent said he would ring to ask and get back to me. He called later that afternoon to say the landlord wouldn't budge from €550.

    It's going to be empty for a while at that price I imagine. It was worth €500 a month but it wasn't really worth the €525, although I was willing to pay that. I wasn't going to pay any more though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 146 ✭✭tesslab


    Whats driving me crazy is that some of the properties I'm looking at now were advertised 3 months ago for about 900. Nothing has been done with them (i.e. new furniture or any kind of decorating) but yet the price has gone up by 200 + :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,551 ✭✭✭panda100


    Don't forget that rent allowance distorts the market by putting an artificially high floor on rents. Thus, any kind of kip of bedsit at all will cost 400 euros, whereas in (wealthy, non-IMF-run) Berlin, 400 will get you a nice 2 bed apartment.

    The state pays for half of all rented accommodation in this country - if we saw the rent allowance slashed, then landlords could not rely on getting a bare minimum of 400 plus for any dump, and rents would fall for everyone (including those on rent allowance of course). We'd be saving the state a fortune and allowing private renters to rent at lower prices (giving them more spending money to pour back into the economy). The downside would be that struggling BTL owners might go bust - but I don't see why it's fair to distort the market and screw everyone else for the benefit of landlords.

    Hmm, Im not sure.If that is the case, why do so many landlords not want or allow rent allowance?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,455 ✭✭✭✭Monty Burnz


    panda100 wrote: »
    Hmm, Im not sure.If that is the case, why do so many landlords not want or allow rent allowance?
    Because they don't want the hassle that some landlords associate with RA tenants. It doesn't matter that some people don't want RA tenants, the market price is set by the lowest price that a landlord will accept (which is the RA rate) and prices only range up from there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,243 ✭✭✭✭Jesus Wept


    I viewed a studio apartment on Tuesday which was entered on Daft 6 weeks ago. The advertised price was €550 a month and I asked if the landlord would be willing to part with it for €500 a month. I was told that I wasn't the first to have asked and the landlord wasn't willing to take €500. So I asked if he'd go as far as €525 and the agent said he would ring to ask and get back to me. He called later that afternoon to say the landlord wouldn't budge from €550.

    It's going to be empty for a while at that price I imagine. It was worth €500 a month but it wasn't really worth the €525, although I was willing to pay that. I wasn't going to pay any more though.

    Landlord will probably lose more money when waiting.
    Have had some good and some awfully thick landlords
    Estate agents, all terrible bar one and his boss is terrible so it's not easy anyway.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,517 ✭✭✭axer


    I am renting my current apartment for €800/month. I have to move out and looked at other apartments in the same complex. Most of the exact same apartment was looking for €900/month. The best I could convince was €850. Some just point blankly refused to drop their price entirely. Its madness.

    The sooner the bank start repossessing the sooner the property prices (and subsequently rent prices) will drop.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    axer wrote: »
    I am renting my current apartment for €800/month. I have to move out and looked at other apartments in the same complex. Most of the exact same apartment was looking for €900/month. The best I could convince was €850. Some just point blankly refused to drop their price entirely. Its madness.

    The sooner the bank start repossessing the sooner the property prices (and subsequently rent prices) will drop.

    This is the point I was making earlier. Supply of rental properties is not going up but demand is so prices will rise. 2 posters have now backed this up with personal experience. just for balance, since Christmas, how many people have had their rent reduced or have seen neighbouring properties drop their rents?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,455 ✭✭✭✭Monty Burnz


    axer wrote: »
    I am renting my current apartment for €800/month. I have to move out and looked at other apartments in the same complex. Most of the exact same apartment was looking for €900/month. The best I could convince was €850. Some just point blankly refused to drop their price entirely. Its madness.

    The sooner the bank start repossessing the sooner the property prices (and subsequently rent prices) will drop.
    I think a lot of landlords think they can refuse to accept less than they are paying in mortgages for the property. 6 months or a year of lost income will eventually convince them otherwise.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,517 ✭✭✭axer


    I think a lot of landlords think they can refuse to accept less than they are paying in mortgages for the property. 6 months or a year of lost income will eventually convince them otherwise.
    Yes, I think it will take another 6-12 months before people realise that they will need to cover some of the mortgage themselves. Many are just chancing it for the time being.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    I think a lot of landlords think they can refuse to accept less than they are paying in mortgages for the property. 6 months or a year of lost income will eventually convince them otherwise.

    I think you missed the fact that he paid the higher rent. The apartment isn't empty the poster rented it despite the fact that it was 6% higher than his similar apartment


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,455 ✭✭✭✭Monty Burnz


    OMD wrote: »
    I think you missed the fact that he paid the higher rent. The apartment isn't empty the poster rented it despite the fact that it was 6% higher than his similar apartment
    Yes, but for every guy who gets it, there are the other 3 guys who refused to accept less and still have empty apartments.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    Yes, but for every guy who gets it, there are the other 3 guys who refused to accept less and still have empty apartments.

    What are you basing that on?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,455 ✭✭✭✭Monty Burnz


    OMD wrote: »
    What are you basing that on?
    I'm basing it on the fact that the poster said that there were several other identical empty apartments in the development that s/he didn't rent.

    Rents are only moving in one direction in the coming years, and it's not up.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,517 ✭✭✭axer


    OMD wrote: »
    I think you missed the fact that he paid the higher rent. The apartment isn't empty the poster rented it despite the fact that it was 6% higher than his similar apartment
    I presume you are refering to me. I refused to rent at that price and ended up finding one elsewhere.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    axer wrote: »
    I presume you are refering to me. I refused to rent at that price and ended up finding one elsewhere.

    Sorry, when you said you convinced them to accept €850, I presumed that you then rented it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    I'm basing it on the fact that the poster said that there were several other identical empty apartments in the development that s/he didn't rent.

    Rents are only moving in one direction in the coming years, and it's not up.

    I am referring to Dublin city and the only way rents are going there is up. We will see in 3 months time but I would be amazed if rents in Dublin were lower in 3 months time. Indeed if they are I will never post on this forum again.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,455 ✭✭✭✭Monty Burnz


    OMD wrote: »
    I am referring to Dublin city and the only way rents are going there is up. We will see in 3 months time but I would be amazed if rents in Dublin were lower in 3 months time. Indeed if they are I will never post on this forum again.
    Don't say things like that :)

    Short-term movements are hard to predict, but there is no way that rents can move upwards in the medium or long term due to the reasons I outlined above. I don't know if there is any reliable source of information over that sort of period anyway - DAFT reports only cover asking rents, not rents paid.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Bambi wrote: »
    i asked one landlord to drop a 100 euro off the advertised rent and they wouldnt entertain it. We'll see how long that place up on daft for, lot of unrealistic people out there :rolleyes:

    The next day it was being advertised for 50 yoyos less :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    Don't say things like that :)

    Short-term movements are hard to predict, but there is no way that rents can move upwards in the medium or long term due to the reasons I outlined above. I don't know if there is any reliable source of information over that sort of period anyway - DAFT reports only cover asking rents, not rents paid.

    The daft report compares asking prices now with asking prices in previous times so is reasonably accurate.

    I suppose the question I asked earlier still stands. In the last 3 months (not before that) how many on this site have had their rent reduced?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,455 ✭✭✭✭Monty Burnz


    OMD wrote: »
    The daft report compares asking prices now with asking prices in previous times so is reasonably accurate.
    Yup, it's pretty accurate for what landlords want.
    OMD wrote: »
    I suppose the question I asked earlier still stands. In the last 3 months (not before that) how many on this site have had their rent reduced?
    Perhaps you could put a poll in After Hours? Unscientific, but it might give you a vague idea at least.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    I've stated consistently that in my area (Ringsend/Docklands/Ballsbridge), rents have stickied for about 18months. That is for 2 reasons:

    1 -because of new large employers in the area. Those are Google and Facebook where they mostly employ foreigners who only rent not buy and they are still hiring.
    2 - Rent Supplement, at least 3 families in my small complex of about 30 apts are on this. There maybe more but i do not know everyone here :) I do know of a few families receiving this in the larger apt complex next door.

    On empties, there are a few near the new Grand Canal theatre. Have a peep in the windows when ye are down there. There are a large number of empties in Spencer Dock, these are NAMA fully built properties, these are the ones Monty maybe referring to.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,551 ✭✭✭panda100


    Totally relating to everything being said on this thread!

    I moved out of my apartment in Cork today after the landlord decided to up the rent on me after Christmas. It wasn't too bad because I had planned to move up to Dublin anyway this month as I got a new job. I really looked after the house and was a very quiet tenant,never bothered landlord and didn't sign a lease or anything. He rocked up to me before Christmas and said he thought he could get €560 for the place, and I was only paying €450. He was a builder and having done very well out of the Celtic Tiger I think he thinks money is still splashing around the place with young people.
    It wasn't luxurious accommodation by far, and the girl underneath me who was meditated very loudly until 3 in the morning, was on rent allowance.

    Its frustrating because taxes are going up, pay is going down and rents are still extortionate!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,398 ✭✭✭MIN2511


    My house mate and i have been looking for the last 2 months and we still haven't found an apartment.
    We have to move out of our current apartment by next weekend; the pressure is on :(


    The amount of below par and dirty apartments available is unbelievable.... Daft is the only proper site and the other websites are duplicates; it's wrecking my head :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,355 ✭✭✭tara73


    Don't forget that rent allowance distorts the market by putting an artificially high floor on rents. Thus, any kind of kip of bedsit at all will cost 400 euros, whereas in (wealthy, non-IMF-run) Berlin, 400 will get you a nice 2 bed apartment.

    The state pays for half of all rented accommodation in this country - if we saw the rent allowance slashed, then landlords could not rely on getting a bare minimum of 400 plus for any dump, and rents would fall for everyone (including those on rent allowance of course). We'd be saving the state a fortune and allowing private renters to rent at lower prices (giving them more spending money to pour back into the economy). The downside would be that struggling BTL owners might go bust - but I don't see why it's fair to distort the market and screw everyone else for the benefit of landlords.


    this is still always and always the argument and I still say it's not the main point for the high rents. It's actually BS.
    As one other poster asked before: why do the majority of landlords don't want tenants on RA? doesn't go in line with the argument, eh?

    I think the main point is that it still didn't, almost 3 years after the property crash, reached the brain of many landlords, that there are no immigrants/or as well young (graduates) irish professionals anymore who don't care if the place is a kip, they pay almost any amount of rent as what is left from their salary is still double, triple or whatever figure of the money they would get at home.
    there are no people anymore wo don't care if the place is crappy as they will live there only temporary and they don't need/want to feel at home as their home is elsewhere.

    in a nutshell: there is still the delusion that the good times are not gone or that they will come back any time soon.
    they don't understand that they need to renovate their rental property to find a tenant. so they rather leave it empty as they think they will get the high rent as the good times are just around the corner and it will make up for the lost out rent....
    believe me, many landlords are not very clever, they can't do maths, they only now the good times and know nothing about competition and real business.

    so said, I agree with other posters that there are many chancers as well, so don't give up asking to reduce the rent. If you look hard, you'll get what you want for a good price these days. Just takes a bit of effort and search.

    good luck!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,455 ✭✭✭✭Monty Burnz


    tara73 wrote: »
    this is still always and always the argument and I still say it's not the main point for the high rents. It's actually BS.
    As one other poster asked before: why do the majority of landlords don't want tenants on RA? doesn't go in line with the argument, eh?
    I already explained that. As I said, most landlords DO accept rent allowance, and RA pays for half of all the rented properties in the country. That is where the bottom price that a property will rent for is set. Lower RA, and all rents will fall by the same amount, more or less.

    The frustrating thing is that there are many thousands of shiny new apartments that are totally empty, owned by the Irish taxpayer, that are being deliberately kept off the market and allowed to slowly rot - another government intervention that is harming the public and fouling up the market. :mad:


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,124 ✭✭✭Amhran Nua


    tara73 wrote: »
    As one other poster asked before: why do the majority of landlords don't want tenants on RA?
    Quite a few of the ones who don't take RA just don't declare their income. Revenue did a sting on several areas a while back and collected a nice big pile of back taxes, long may it continue.

    I don't think that RA is neccessarily putting a floor on rental prices, although it is a factor, quite often renters don't know what they should be asking for. In my area, close to a university and the city centre, rents vary wildly from €750 to €1250 for a four bedroom house.

    One family I know asked for a reduction from the landlord, and were told they'd get €100 off for December, as it was Christmas and all. They promptly moved across the estate and got a rent reduction of €200 a month. This indicates to me that a lot of the price inertia is just plain pig headedness from landlords. Which is what happens when you have a load of amateur investors who believe they are genius entrepreneurs, and are caught on the hop.

    Its true that some are labouring under the impression that the "good" times are back, but ultimately as the frozen properties are released and the amount of empties exceeds the demand, rents will stabilise considerably lower than they are today, IMHO. Meanwhile, I'd advocate looking for places on good bus routes rather than central locations, the bargains are easier to get the further out you go.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 315 ✭✭kevin99


    If I rented I would not want to be in a complex where people are getting rent allowance.
    Ditto I wouldn't like it if some of the housing units recently built were sold as social housing for €150k less than what I paid for.
    I don't see rents coming down. If anything they will increase.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,051 ✭✭✭✭Dempo1


    RedXIV wrote: »
    I'd say most are chancing their arms. Just find a places you like and offer reasonable rents for them. I'd be pretty sure landlords will consider decent offers

    Yes agreed, agents acting on behalf of landlords tend to advertise higher in the hope of getting the maxium but they are chaning their arms.

    Not Dublin but my girlfriend just rented a four bed house in tullamore, private and quite estate €500 pm. As it happened she met one of the former tenants who called for post, they had mutual friends, a year ago the house was being rented for €800 PM. Quite a drop and excellent landlady i have to say!

    Is maith an scáthán súil charad.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,273 ✭✭✭twowheelsonly


    We (Company) were renting a place down near The Point and when we moved in - at €1100 a month - there were SIX apartments out of 60 actually in use.
    When we enquired about a reduction 12 months later it was a flat no "as we have no problem renting them out". There were about 10 in use by then. We made that 9 by moving out to a smaller but perfectly adequate apartment closer to the City Centre at €400 less!! The landlady offered a reduction of €50 when she saw that we were serious and we probably could have pushed her for more but couldn't be bothered.

    That apartment is still empty, 12 months later :)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,382 ✭✭✭Poor Craythur


    kevin99 wrote: »
    If I rented I would not want to be in a complex where people are getting rent allowance.

    Why not? I got seriously ill a few years ago and had to stop working for a while. During this time, I was on RA. Why would you not want someone like me in the same building as you?
    kevin99 wrote: »
    Ditto I wouldn't like it if some of the housing units recently built were sold as social housing for €150k less than what I paid for.

    Whether you like it or not doesn't really matter.
    kevin99 wrote: »
    I don't see rents coming down. If anything they will increase.

    Well, at least it'll keep the riff raff out, eh? ;)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,455 ✭✭✭✭Monty Burnz


    kevin99 wrote: »
    I don't see rents coming down. If anything they will increase.
    Everyone has less money, taxes are going up, unemployment is high, people are leaving the country in droves, property prices are crashing, and there are hundreds of thousands of empty properties right across the country.

    I'm not sure what part of that equation will lead to higher rents... :confused:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,517 ✭✭✭axer


    I'm not sure what part of that equation will lead to higher rents... :confused:
    People are not being forced to sell their houses/repossessions. Until that happens lots of landlords will still be trying to charge as close to their mortgage payment amounts as possible. The real property crash has yet to happen and is inevitable - the sooner it happens the sooner rent prices will drop.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,455 ✭✭✭✭Monty Burnz


    axer wrote: »
    The real property crash has yet to happen and is inevitable
    Totally agree with you.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭Zamboni


    axer wrote: »
    The real property crash has yet to happen and is inevitable - the sooner it happens the sooner rent prices will drop.

    Whilst I completely agree with you in theory, FG and Labour are bound to keep interference in the property market high, with both an extension of the repossession moratorium and increasing Tax Relief for people who bought in the boom on the cards.
    I think it's just a case continuing the FF game of how long can you kick a can down the road.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,517 ✭✭✭axer


    Zamboni wrote: »
    Whilst I completely agree with you in theory, FG and Labour are bound to keep interference in the property market high, with both an extension of the repossession moratorium and increasing Tax Relief for people who bought in the boom on the cards.
    I think it's just a case continuing the FF game of how long can you kick a can down the road.
    Exactly, they are helping those that bought overpriced properties and screwing renters as a result.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,216 ✭✭✭gerryo777


    Everyone has less money, taxes are going up, unemployment is high, people are leaving the country in droves, property prices are crashing, and there are hundreds of thousands of empty properties right across the country.

    I'm not sure what part of that equation will lead to higher rents... :confused:
    Are you related to George Lee???? Doom & Gloom, Doom & Gloom!!!
    Jesus, I can't see this country getting off its arse if this is the attitude that prevails.............


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,216 ✭✭✭gerryo777


    axer wrote: »
    People are not being forced to sell their houses/repossessions. Until that happens lots of landlords will still be trying to charge as close to their mortgage payment amounts as possible. The real property crash has yet to happen and is inevitable - the sooner it happens the sooner rent prices will drop.

    How low do people on here think property prices will go? Do you think that they will go back to the 70's or 80's prices? Do you think that you will be able to buy in Dublin for 50 or 60k??? COP ON TO YOURSELVES! We're in a recession, but we are not heading back to the dark ages!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,555 ✭✭✭antiskeptic


    gerryo777 wrote: »
    How low do people on here think property prices will go? Do you think that they will go back to the 70's or 80's prices? Do you think that you will be able to buy in Dublin for 50 or 60k??? COP ON TO YOURSELVES! We're in a recession, but we are not heading back to the dark ages!

    Morgan Kelly (of Morgan Kelly fame) seems to think that the same will happen to this bubble as happens to bubbles everywhere else, to whit: house prices will drop to the point they would have been at were there no super-inflationary bubble. That would put the floor somewhere around 1999 prices + 5% per annum inflation since then.


    In our case however, there's the problem of a "banjaxed" economy meaning the floor need not be at that point. My house cost 150k euros in 1999. It cost half that in 1997 and half that again in 1995. Which is boomtime inflation territory - which can also be rowed back on.

    1995 wasn't the dark ages by any means. I was working in Holland at the time and the relatively huge wages being paid here (I used to get Fridays edition of The Irish Times sent to me each week and couldn't believe the job pages) were part of the reason I came home.

    Unfortunately, I wasn't also getting Thursdays The Irish Times to see what had happened to house prices in my absence :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,455 ✭✭✭✭Monty Burnz


    gerryo777 wrote: »
    Are you related to George Lee???? Doom & Gloom, Doom & Gloom!!!
    Jesus, I can't see this country getting off its arse if this is the attitude that prevails.............
    Are Irish people still really sticking their fingers in their ears rather than facing up to reality? You would think the bubble would have taught people a lesson, but apparently not.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,455 ✭✭✭✭Monty Burnz


    Morgan Kelly (of Morgan Kelly fame) seems to think that the same will happen to this bubble as happens to bubbles everywhere else, to whit: house prices will drop to the point they would have been at were there no super-inflationary bubble. That would put the floor somewhere around 1999 prices + 5% per annum inflation since then.
    The last prediction from Kelly that I can recall was an 80% fall from peak prices. I'd realistically expect closer to 70% personally, but it's very hard to say. If we default and the banks go bust, all bets are off. If we don't default, prices will be falling for the next 5 years at least.


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