dunguib

john mayo 10

After watching dunguib win the red mills hurdle at gowran park yesterday how do ye rate his chances in the champion hurdle ?

RichieLawlor

He settled better, jumped better, jumped faster and slicker and with more improvement from his first race of the season he might be 5th in the Champion

Nulty

Anyone else get the feeling that he's been schooled all te way up to Christmas and thats why we haven't seen him?

UrbanSea

Not sure Nulty,never thought of that. Didn't see the race but heard it was workmanlike. Surely to come on for the CH,but won't be in the top 6 for me.

Hulk Hands

UrbanSea wrote: »

Not sure Nulty,never thought of that. Didn't see the race but heard it was workmanlike. Surely to come on for the CH,but won't be in the top 6 for me.

Couldnt say it was workmanlike, was fairly impressed considering it was his first run of the year. Hurdled very well especially under pressure. Looked more like a proper racehorse than the trotting around wins of last year.

People have such short memories. This time last year he was the next Golden Cygnet and not after 1 1/2 poor runs people don't want to know. If your taking a very remedial view of the race the Dunguib would murder these in a bumper around Cheltenham....so if he can hurdle adequately at pace, like he did yesterday, then he will win. Not that i'm taking that simple an approach, but he is definitely a player, and not an outsider.

UrbanSea

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Couldnt say it was workmanlike, was fairly impressed considering it was his first run of the year. Hurdled very well especially under pressure. Looked more like a proper racehorse than the trotting around wins of last year.

People have such short memories. This time last year he was the next Golden Cygnet and not after 1 1/2 poor runs people don't want to know. If your taking a very remedial view of the race the Dunguib would murder these in a bumper around Cheltenham....so if he can hurdle adequately at pace, like he did yesterday, then he will win. Not that i'm taking that simple an approach, but he is definitely a player, and not an outsider.

I never argued against this. In fact,before his run at Cheltenham last year,I had mentioned many times on boards that I'd lay him all day long,and I did.
I don't agree with what you say there about 'he will win' if he can hurdle at pace. Beating Luska Lad and Gimli's Rock doesn't make you an instant top contender.

smartaform

I think the horse is an outsider for cheltenham.
It is a classic example of depth here in Ireland. He has been placed very well and picked off whats been in front of him, but can you honestly say he holds a candle to Binocular, Menorah or Hurricane Fly?

Hulk Hands

smartaform wrote: »

I think the horse is an outsider for cheltenham.
It is a classic example of depth here in Ireland. He has been placed very well and picked off whats been in front of him, but can you honestly say he holds a candle to Binocular, Menorah or Hurricane Fly?

Yes I can easily see why he holds a candle to Menorah. Menorah has improved a lot this year, but there is no reason to think why Dunguib won't also improve a similar amount. Forgetting about the fact that the 2l difference was lost by O'Connell going around the outside, and also forgetting that Dunguib may have been over the top at Cheltenham last year.....where I see Dunguib making up that ground and surpassing Menorah this year is in the jumping department. Menorah jumped well in the supreme last year and has continued to do so. Whereas Dunguib jumped shoddily last year, but jumped well yesterday and looks to have done intensive schooling. I may be wrong, but I know who I would back given the choice, considering Dunguib is double the price.

BTW, I fancy HF or PC for this race, it's just Dungiub's hurdling yesterday has caused me to have a very slight rethink.

UrbanSea

We can't just assume that Dunguib is going to improve just because Menorah did. We can't compare an easy grade 2 race to beating Cue Card or a hot handicap at Cheltenham.

Hulk Hands

Double the price more than makes up for that imo.

The form of the Cue card race is strong I believe. However, there is no way of knowing that as, after all, he only beat 2 noviced with no championship form either.

UrbanSea

There is a way of knowing that. Cue Card got a rating about 6 pounds higher than Dunguib ever got. If anyone can find a link to the figures I'd appreciate it,I can;t find the one I had.

hucklebuck

I can't have him at all, sure he hurdled better but did not impress me with the manner of his win.

Still think he would be doing well to make the top 10 in the Champion, plenty of horses in it that have been more impressive.

He won't be within 6 lengths of Menorah in my opinion and Menorah could be behind others.

HigginsJ

He wont be out of the 1st 3. Think he and Peddlers Cross are the 2 for me.

Menorah has shown very little this year. He beat Cue Card and Silviano Conti in the International. Silviano Conti didnt do much for that form. Binocular has looked poor on 2 of his 3 runs this year. Mille Chief was lucky to beat Celestial Halo getting weight yesterday.

Dunguib is a superstar. Wins the Champion Hurdle and a future Gold Cup winner.

mdwexford

Thread is in bits, Hulk Hands and HigginsJs posts are hilarious.

I suspect the latter is trolling though.

HigginsJ

mdwexford wrote: »

Thread is in bits, Hulk Hands and HigginsJs posts are hilarious.

I suspect the latter is trolling though.

No deadly serious. The horse has a massive engine and looks to have the scope to jump fences nicely. Dont like the horse being disregarded because he was beaten 2l in a championship race last year.

He has to be forgiven his run in punchestown at the end of the season. Otherwise you reckon he really is only half a lenght better than Ronaldo Des Motte. I believe he was over the top at that stage of the season . Cofortably beating Luska Lad on your comeback run is clearly not a good enough effort for some people. His best jump yesterday was at the last when he was asked to race properly and it looked like Hardy Eustace jumping. Im not convinced by the jockey and thats my one slight reservation about him actually winning it. He will def be in front of Menorah

hucklebuck

I can't have him in any way, doesn't seem to have much pace when asked and that is a HUGE part of having a chance in the Champion. Not sure he even has anything coming off the bridle.

mdwexford

HigginsJ wrote: »

He wont be out of the 1st 3. Think he and Peddlers Cross are the 2 for me.

Menorah has shown very little this year. He beat Cue Card and Silviano Conti in the International. Silviano Conti didnt do much for that form. Binocular has looked poor on 2 of his 3 runs this year. Mille Chief was lucky to beat Celestial Halo getting weight yesterday.

Dunguib is a superstar. Wins the Champion Hurdle and a future Gold Cup winner.

HigginsJ wrote: »

No deadly serious. The horse has a massive engine and looks to have the scope to jump fences nicely. Dont like the horse being disregarded because he was beaten 2l in a championship race last year.

He has to be forgiven his run in punchestown at the end of the season. Otherwise you reckon he really is only half a lenght better than Ronaldo Des Motte. I believe he was over the top at that stage of the season . Cofortably beating Luska Lad on your comeback run is clearly not a good enough effort for some people. His best jump yesterday was at the last when he was asked to race properly and it looked like Hardy Eustace jumping. Im not convinced by the jockey and thats my one slight reservation about him actually winning it. He will def be in front of Menorah

In that case i disagree.
Menorah has been superb so far this year, how has he shown little.
Binocular has also been progressing the way he does, his defeat fto didnt surprise me at all and wouldnt worry me for March.

Mille Chief wont figure.

Considering hes 8 already its probably a 200/1 shot he wins both.

Now in fairness he should progress a bit this year and i thought yesterday was a good comeback run.

I do not think he will finish ahead of Menorah though.

HigginsJ

mdwexford wrote: »

In that case i disagree.
Menorah has been superb so far this year, how has he shown little.
Binocular has also been progressing the way he does, his defeat fto didnt surprise me at all and wouldnt worry me for March.

Mille Chief wont figure.

Considering hes 8 already its probably a 200/1 shot he wins both.

Now in fairness he should progress a bit this year and i thought yesterday was a good comeback run.

I do not think he will finish ahead of Menorah though.

Fair enough i might be slightly carried away but none more so than someone saying he wont be in the top 10 or cant hold a candle to menorah is more ridiculous.

If he is not in the top 5 it will be the best Champion Hurdle we have ever seen. He has 2 lenghts to make up on Menorah. I feel he was given a bad ride last year against Menorah which would make up that for me. Ok menorah has improved a bit but cant say Dunguib hasnt improved. I am happy having backed him at 20-1 and 14-1. Bit of a fan of peddlers cross so think might have hard time getting by him. Outside of that i wouldnt have any other horse instead of him.

mdwexford

Two lengths to make up on the Menorah of last season but he has improved his official rating by a stone this season.

So far there is no hard evidence of Dunguib improving because hes only been seen once. But Menorah was only 5 last year and had a lot of strengthening up to do whereas Dunguib was already 7.

I would have liked to have seen him being given more experience in Grade 1 company this season rather than wrapping him up till Febuary.

UrbanSea

Higgins I thought you were taking the micky.
You said Menorah improved 'a bit' and you said Dunguib has improved. It doesn't take a CH winner to win yesterday.

smartaform

HigginsJ wrote: »

Fair enough i might be slightly carried away but none more so than someone saying he wont be in the top 10 or cant hold a candle to menorah is more ridiculous.

Why is that more ridiculous?? Last year Menorah still looked a bit fragile, this year he has come back bigger, stronger AND proved his class on separate occasions against some nice horses.. I thought the win against Cue Card was particularly impressive...

Hulk Hands

mdwexford wrote: »

Thread is in bits, Hulk Hands and HigginsJs posts are hilarious.

I suspect the latter is trolling though.

Oh shut up will you? If my posts are so bad why don't you care to take them apart, instead of just branding them hilarious?

Oh wait, this is coming from the man who thinks Carberry's Harchibald ride in 05 is the best he's ever seen. Now that's hilarious

Hulk Hands

mdwexford wrote: »

Binocular has also been progressing the way he does, his defeat fto didnt surprise me at all and wouldnt worry me for March.

You make "the way he does though" sound like he does that every year. He has only progressed prior to Cheltenham once though, and by all accounts the turnaround in his form last year was as much a surprise to Henderson as it was anyone else. The horse is inconsistent, and who's to say he will magically find his form this year? I'd be staying well away from a horse so inconsistent at 7/2.

On another point, even if he does win, if I was JP i'd be fairly annoyed that my star horse can only be trained to find his form once a year. Part of the reason why i'll never consider Binocular great.

mdwexford wrote: »

Two lengths to make up on the Menorah of last season but he has improved his official rating by a stone this season.

So far there is no hard evidence of Dunguib improving because hes only been seen once.

Exactly. But there is no hard evidence of him not improving either. When you take into account that Dunguib is 14/1, and Menorah is 5's, I think that uncertainty is more than reflected in the price.

Those 2 lengths are negligible btw, given O'Connell's mistakes, Dunguib may have been over the top. The majority of people came out of that race believing Dunguib was still the better horse, reflected in the 2011 champion hurdle odds set immediately after the race

mdwexford wrote: »

But Menorah was only 5 last year and had a lot of strengthening up to do whereas Dunguib was already 7.

Fair enough. Like my 'hilarious' post earlier, Menorah's jumping was very good last year, and was only going to improve a moderate amount this season. However, Dunguib's jumping was largely poor, therefore has the scope to improve significantly this season. You can't write off Dunguib's ability to improve a similar amount, taking into the fact also that he had problems settling last year, which can also be improved upon.

mdwexford wrote: »

I would have liked to have seen him being given more experience in Grade 1 company this season rather than wrapping him up till Febuary.

1) It didn't work last year, he may have been over the top come Chelt and certainly was come Punchestown.

2) He has had some problems this term. Was 'under a cloud' 6 weeks ago according to Fenton.

While i'm not overly confident in Fenton's training, I'm not going to let the February reappearance put me off.


For the record, here's my view of the race. I think Binocular is a pig of a horse, but has the potential to put in a performance like last years, which sets an almighty standard. Over here, I personally think Hurricane Fly could be our best since Istabraq. I'm certainly willing to put him ahead of the Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca etc crew. I even think he could top the standard set by Binocular last season. Then there's Peddlers Cross. I think he's a very good horse, but might be found just short, maybe 2nd/3rd. But like every unbeaten animal, there's no way of knowing if he's bottomed out yet.

It's a special champion hurdle, and I think the above 3 have such ability that i had discounted all other's completely, including Menorah and other favourite horses of mine such as Kyber Kim. But then I thought of Dunguib.

Out of all the others, he's the only one with an inkling of a chance imo. I'm still clinging to the chance that he's something special, like all the racing world had hoped last year. Maybe it was just 2 poor runs, a combination of being over the top, not settling and poor jumping. It's a long shot, but I think 14/1 is a fair price that he is a superstar. People will crab and what he achieved pre Cheltenham last year, but if nothing else, his annhilation of the bumper field there 2 years ago should tell you what talent the horse has and why he shouldn't be totally discounted like so many of you are.

UrbanSea

Bumper form can be dangerous to go by.
I would have rather seen Dunguib go to a decent sized field against at least one genuine Grade 1 winner. Having said that he can only beat what's in front of him and he did the other day.

RichieLawlor

That post by Hulk Hands is a load of bollocks.

He called the best Champion Hurdler of recent times a pig. Did you see the Christmas Hurdle.

He said Menorah could only improve a moderate amount. Menorah has improved at least a stone and probably more. That's not moderate.

Most of your Dunguib points are bollocks.
He jumped well in the Sup Nov and was no way over the top at Cheltenham. The horse just wasn't as good as people wanted to believe. He may improve the nessecary amount there is no evidence yet.

Hulk Hands

Care to read my post again there Richie?

I said Menorah's Jumping could only improve moderately. I'm not disputing that the whole package has improved considerably.

I'm calling Binocular a pig because he is so inconsistent, ie. a punter nightmare. I'm sorry if the choice of words caused you to start crying. Do you think Binocular was anywhere near his best at Kempton?

He didn't jump well in the supreme novice, he just jumped better than his abysmal efforts prior to that. And could you please state your conclusive knowledge that Dunguib wasn't over the top? I'm not stating as fact that he was, just giving a possible theory. He was certainly over the top at Punchestown.

RichieLawlor

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Care to read my post again there Richie?

I said Menorah's Jumping could only improve moderately. I'm not disputing that the whole package has improved considerably.

I'm calling Binocular a pig because he is so inconsistent, ie. a punter nightmare. I'm sorry if the choice of words caused you to start crying. Do you think Binocular was anywhere near his best at Kempton?

He didn't jump well in the supreme novice, he just jumped better than his abysmal efforts prior to that. And could you please state your conclusive knowledge that Dunguib wasn't over the top? I'm not stating as fact that he was, just giving a possible theory. He was certainly over the top at Punchestown.

Binocular is not inconsistent. The complete opposite actually. He needs a strong pace to show his best. He ALWAYS runs well off a lightening quick gallop. Anyone who backs him at short odds in muddling small runner fields deserve to lose there cash imo.

Dunguib did Jump well in the Supreme, watch it again Menorah was just better.

Care to explain to me how a horse who was trained for the day and ran so well was over the top in the Supreme. He ran well, but that was as good as he was. His 3 races leading up to it were hack canters.

He probably was over the top at Punchestown

Morgans

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Care to read my post again there Richie?

I said Menorah's Jumping could only improve moderately. I'm not disputing that the whole package has improved considerably.

I'm calling Binocular a pig because he is so inconsistent, ie. a punter nightmare. I'm sorry if the choice of words caused you to start crying. Do you think Binocular was anywhere near his best at Kempton?

He didn't jump well in the supreme novice, he just jumped better than his abysmal efforts prior to that. And could you please state your conclusive knowledge that Dunguib wasn't over the top? I'm not stating as fact that he was, just giving a possible theory. He was certainly over the top at Punchestown.

Is it not easier to believe that Dunguib is a very good horse, just has his limitations and at 8 isnt going to be the next pegasus, rather than believing that he would have won but for the jockey, and now, that he was over the top in march. Is it not easier to believe that he can beat Fionnegas, Luska Lad, Gimli's axe but isnt quite good enough to beat Menorah and the likes. There is no shame in it.

Hulk Hands

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Binocular is not inconsistent. The complete opposite actually. He needs a strong pace to show his best. He ALWAYS runs well off a lightening quick gallop. Anyone who backs him at short odds in muddling small runner fields deserve to lose there cash imo.

You cant know this. By that reckoning, he has only has a quick gallop 3 times in his career. One was an excellent win, one was a decent second and one was a rather poor third (in comparison to the first mentioned). But as you say...ALWAYS runs well :rolleyes:

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Dunguib did Jump well in the Supreme, watch it again Menorah was just better.

I just did. Dunguib clouted the 1st, 3rd, 5th and (to a lesser extent) last hurdle. So i'll stand by my statement that he didn't jump well, just jumped better than his poor attempts prior to that. If his jumping improves he wont have to be taken wide to get a view of his hurdles

On another note, it didn't quite realise how much ground Dunguib lost around the outside, not just during the last 1/3 of the race, but right throughout. He also ran very keenly...jumped the second very well from almost last and scooted around the outside up to the leaders, only to be dragged back to the last 4 by o'connell again, losing ground all the while around the outside. It think there was slight jockey error by losing so many place at the start also in such a big field.

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Care to explain to me how a horse who was trained for the day and ran so well was over the top in the Supreme. He ran well, but that was as good as he was. His 3 races leading up to it were hack canters.

Well care to explain to me why Fenton felt the need to change his training schedule this year, citing that he felt 6 races was too much for him last season. Is it possible that Fenton made a mistake in the training of his youngish horse last season? Those hack canters were all on heavy ground also. It was 4 races btw

http://www.2011cheltenhamfestival.com/news/10903/dunguib-will-not-run-until-january-2011

Hulk Hands

Morgans wrote: »

Is it not easier to believe that Dunguib is a very good horse, just has his limitations and at 8 isnt going to be the next pegasus, rather than believing that he would have won but for the jockey, and now, that he was over the top in march. Is it not easier to believe that he can beat Fionnegas, Luska Lad, Gimli's axe but isnt quite good enough to beat Menorah and the likes. There is no shame in it.

Oh it is easy to believe that and it is by far the most likely scenario. I just think 14/1 is a fair price that he is the next pegasus, golden cygnet, Istabraq

I believe there's only a small chance he'll win but he doesn't deserve to be discounted like people on here are. Imo, he's the only horse outside of Binocular, HF and PC that has a shot at winning, however small

RichieLawlor

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Oh it is easy to believe that and it is by far the most likely scenario. I just think 14/1 is a fair price that he is the next pegasus, golden cygnet, Istabraq

I believe there's only a small chance he'll win but he doesn't deserve to be discounted like people on here are. Imo, he's the only horse outside of Binocular, HF and PC that has a shot at winning, however small

So Dunguib has a chance but the horse that murdered him in the Supreme hasn't.

Morgans

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Oh it is easy to believe that and it is by far the most likely scenario. I just think 14/1 is a fair price that he is the next pegasus, golden cygnet, Istabraq

I believe there's only a small chance he'll win but he doesn't deserve to be discounted like people on here are. Imo, he's the only horse outside of Binocular, HF and PC that has a shot at winning, however small

Dont think he should be discounted. I dont think he will win, and I think its far more likely that his jumping will be found out by better ground, quicker pace and better horses. What price do you think he should be? There was an attitude around here last year that all Dunguib had to do was go down to the post and come back, despite protests, and rather than taking their beating "fans" decided to blame the jockey. He wins a three runner race in a bog, jumping ok - I still dont think he is a natural but has been schooled extensively - and some on here think he will not only win the CH but the Gold Cup in two years time. If they are wrong, it will be something else that is at fault, not their logic.

Hulk Hands

RichieLawlor wrote: »

So Dunguib has a chance but the horse that murdered him in the Supreme hasn't.

You have a problem with reading what people are saying. A few posts back I said that it was a special champion hurdle. Binocular at his best put up the best performance since Istabraq last year. I think HF could well be the best Irish hurdler since Istabraq. And, going on what he's done so far, PC is an unbeaten machine. So, to beat whichever of these turns up at their best, and one will, it's going to take something really special. I haven't seen enough talent in Menorah to think he's that good. I have seen it in Dunguib, albiet if it was in a bumper. Thats why in 3 weeks i'll be laying Menorah at 5/1 for as much as my poor student pockets can afford.

And, since when is 2 lengths a murdering? I'd gladly take 2/1 that Dunguib finishes ahead of Menorah if anyone's offering.

Morgans wrote: »

Dont think he should be discounted. I dont think he will win, and I think its far more likely that his jumping will be found out by better ground, quicker pace and better horses. What price do you think he should be? There was an attitude around here last year that all Dunguib had to do was go down to the post and come back, despite protests, and rather than taking their beating "fans" decided to blame the jockey. He wins a three runner race in a bog, jumping ok - I still dont think he is a natural but has been schooled extensively - and some on here think he will not only win the CH but the Gold Cup in two years time. If they are wrong, it will be something else that is at fault, not their logic.

Yeah, Gold Cup talk is delusional. I wouldn't mind seeing him being tried over further though. The better ground may be an issue, but I suppose he won his bumper on goodish ground so maybe not.

I'd have Dunguib at about 9/10's to win this year. I'll probably go down the route of backing to win and laying for a place, he strikes me as an 'all or nothing' job.

minty16

Wow. This has some opinions that are just too far on either side of the spectrum. Ok. I layed Dunguib heavy for the supreme last year. I have been somewhat of a critic of the horse . The weekend however was IMO his best performance to date. Bar one hurdle he jumped well, and his jump at the last shows me that a lot of schooling has been done. To write him off for the Champion is wrong. He clearly has immense talent , and although I wont be backing it, I geniunely cant wait to see how he gets on. I wouldn't put it past him to win the Punchestown race that he was over the top for last year in 2011.

UrbanSea

Hulk Hands wrote: »

You have a problem with reading what people are saying. A few posts back I said that it was a special champion hurdle. Binocular at his best put up the best performance since Istabraq last year. I think HF could well be the best Irish hurdler since Istabraq. And, going on what he's done so far, PC is an unbeaten machine. So, to beat whichever of these turns up at their best, and one will, it's going to take something really special. I haven't seen enough talent in Menorah to think he's that good. I have seen it in Dunguib, albiet if it was in a bumper. Thats why in 3 weeks i'll be laying Menorah at 5/1 for as much as my poor student pockets can afford.

And, since when is 2 lengths a murdering? I'd gladly take 2/1 that Dunguib finishes ahead of Menorah if anyone's offering.



Yeah, Gold Cup talk is delusional. I wouldn't mind seeing him being tried over further though. The better ground may be an issue, but I suppose he won his bumper on goodish ground so maybe not.

I'd have Dunguib at about 9/10's to win this year. I'll probably go down the route of backing to win and laying for a place, he strikes me as an 'all or nothing' job.

If you haven't seen anything in Menorah then you haven't seen anything in Dunguib,seen as you beat him.
Menorah won probably the hottest 2 mile handicap hurdle all year off top weight,giving two stone to Bothy who came second(and was since beaten a shorthead in the Totesport)
He then beat Cue Card,who's gotten a higher rating than Dunguib.
I suppose Kauto is good enough to place in a Beginners' Chase as well.

HigginsJ

He really is splitting opinion. No-one seems to think that he will run a solid race and finish 4th/5th.

His price for such a "hyped" horse in some peoples opinion is great value. I wonder what price he would have been had he not gone to punchestown last year. I for one am glad. I think he is a cert for top 3.

Juwwi

I'd like to see them try new tactics and race him from the front or just off the pace.

Racing from the front would help his jumping and l just think he would have a better chance trying to grind the race out.

Hulk Hands

UrbanSea wrote: »

If you haven't seen anything in Menorah then you haven't seen anything in Dunguib,seen as you beat him.
Menorah won probably the hottest 2 mile handicap hurdle all year off top weight,giving two stone to Bothy who came second(and was since beaten a shorthead in the Totesport)
He then beat Cue Card,who's gotten a higher rating than Dunguib.
I suppose Kauto is good enough to place in a Beginners' Chase as well.

Ive already stated where I see Dunguib potential superstardom coming from. Anyway, Ive stated my opinion so ill just leave it untill after the race now.

If Dunguib does flop and gets shown up as being average.....well, its not as if ill have egg on my face, it'll just be another 14/1 shot running to expectations

UrbanSea

But I wasn't arguing about Dunguib there,you said that you haven't seen anything from Menorah to impress you. He couldn't do anything more impressively in my eyes.

mdwexford

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Yes I can easily see why he holds a candle to Menorah. Menorah has improved a lot this year, but there is no reason to think why Dunguib won't also improve a similar amount. Forgetting about the fact that the 2l difference was lost by O'Connell going around the outside, and also forgetting that Dunguib may have been over the top at Cheltenham last year.....where I see Dunguib making up that ground and surpassing Menorah this year is in the jumping department. Menorah jumped well in the supreme last year and has continued to do so. Whereas Dunguib jumped shoddily last year, but jumped well yesterday and looks to have done intensive schooling. I may be wrong, but I know who I would back given the choice, considering Dunguib is double the price.

BTW, I fancy HF or PC for this race, it's just Dungiub's hurdling yesterday has caused me to have a very slight rethink.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Oh shut up will you? If my posts are so bad why don't you care to take them apart, instead of just branding them hilarious?

Oh wait, this is coming from the man who thinks Carberry's Harchibald ride in 05 is the best he's ever seen. Now that's hilarious

Dont tell me to shut up, i will take the tripe you are posting apart because you havent a clue what you are talking about.

Why do you think it wasnt good?

You have already said you are a student so i presume your not into racing long and have all these bullish ideas and how you think your word is gospel, believe me its not.

Every horse doesnt just improve by 15+lbs the following year, especially one that was already over rated like Dunguib. Menorah had much more potential and a lot of growing to do over the summer. He has come back a top drawer hurdler.

Laughing my ass at Dunguib being over the top at Cheltenham, just a random thought that popped into your head eh, that hes over the top at the biggest day of the year which has been planned for months in advance. Get a grip.

Watch the Sup Nov again, Menorahs jumping was not foot perfect. Dunguib will never be a fluent jumper of hurdles so you can forget that pipe dream.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

You make "the way he does though" sound like he does that every year. He has only progressed prior to Cheltenham once though, and by all accounts the turnaround in his form last year was as much a surprise to Henderson as it was anyone else. The horse is inconsistent, and who's to say he will magically find his form this year? I'd be staying well away from a horse so inconsistent at 7/2.

On another point, even if he does win, if I was JP i'd be fairly annoyed that my star horse can only be trained to find his form once a year. Part of the reason why i'll never consider Binocular great.





Exactly. But there is no hard evidence of him not improving either. When you take into account that Dunguib is 14/1, and Menorah is 5's, I think that uncertainty is more than reflected in the price.

Those 2 lengths are negligible btw, given O'Connell's mistakes, Dunguib may have been over the top. The majority of people came out of that race believing Dunguib was still the better horse, reflected in the 2011 champion hurdle odds set immediately after the race




Fair enough. Like my 'hilarious' post earlier, Menorah's jumping was very good last year, and was only going to improve a moderate amount this season. However, Dunguib's jumping was largely poor, therefore has the scope to improve significantly this season. You can't write off Dunguib's ability to improve a similar amount, taking into the fact also that he had problems settling last year, which can also be improved upon.




1) It didn't work last year, he may have been over the top come Chelt and certainly was come Punchestown.

2) He has had some problems this term. Was 'under a cloud' 6 weeks ago according to Fenton.

While i'm not overly confident in Fenton's training, I'm not going to let the February reappearance put me off.


For the record, here's my view of the race. I think Binocular is a pig of a horse, but has the potential to put in a performance like last years, which sets an almighty standard. Over here, I personally think Hurricane Fly could be our best since Istabraq. I'm certainly willing to put him ahead of the Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca etc crew. I even think he could top the standard set by Binocular last season. Then there's Peddlers Cross. I think he's a very good horse, but might be found just short, maybe 2nd/3rd. But like every unbeaten animal, there's no way of knowing if he's bottomed out yet.

It's a special champion hurdle, and I think the above 3 have such ability that i had discounted all other's completely, including Menorah and other favourite horses of mine such as Kyber Kim. But then I thought of Dunguib.

Out of all the others, he's the only one with an inkling of a chance imo. I'm still clinging to the chance that he's something special, like all the racing world had hoped last year. Maybe it was just 2 poor runs, a combination of being over the top, not settling and poor jumping. It's a long shot, but I think 14/1 is a fair price that he is a superstar. People will crab and what he achieved pre Cheltenham last year, but if nothing else, his annhilation of the bumper field there 2 years ago should tell you what talent the horse has and why he shouldn't be totally discounted like so many of you are.

He needs a fast pace to show his best, he is even grinding out wins this season in stupid races. He will be the one to beat on the day. He hurdles and has a better turn of foot than anything in the race.

Think you need to look up inconsistent in the dictionary, out of the frame once in 14 races, not inconsistent.

Part of the reason you are clueless so, hes won 2 out of 3 races this year and if he adds back to back Champ Hurdles hes clearly one of the best of the past 15 years.

It is more likely he wont improve than improve. There is no hard evidence id score 25 goals in the Premiership so i doubt i can scam a contract on the off chance i might.

I rather have 5s on a horse that is proven than 14s on a horse that has loads to prove.

Majority of deluded people like you maybe, myself and most knowledgable race readers thought Dunguib would never finish ahead of Menorah. Its looking like we are right at the moment.

Yep keep clinging to those straws, im sure he'll settle and jump like a champion this year, get as much as you can on at 14s, quickkkkk.

He wasnt over the top at Cheltenham and may not have been at Punchestown, he just wasnt up to the tasks given to him.

Lol at Binocular being a pig, you are showing your lack of knowledge and immaturity with comments like that. Hurricane Fly hasnt beaten anything of note but has potential.

How can discount Menorah with so much in his favour?

Bumper form means nothing anymore, see Joe Cullen, Hairy Molly, Liberman and Cork All Star.

As ive said here or in some other thread Dunguib is a decent horse but no more than that and if he is good enough to win what looks a vintage Champion Hurdle i will be very surprised.

Pity Fenton was afraid to give him a chance against HF and Solwhit in one of those stupid soft ground no pace races that were up fro grabs all season.

Hulk Hands

You could be right Urban sea but regarding Menorah, ive been put off by the defeat to General Miller, and I think that Binocular (on a going day), HF or PC would've won the Greatwood comfortably off his mark, not by a neck, and his form over Cue Card took a hit by Sivinco Conti at the weekend.

I just have it stuck in my head that he's a good horse, but not the top class required to win this. Of course, i'll pay through the pocket if i'm wrong in March

UrbanSea

I can safely say that Binocular wouldn't have been near to winning the Greatwood,he wouldn't be ready at that time in the season.
Fly does not look like a horse built to give weight away in my opinion. If you stuck him into a handicap he'd struggle I think.
Unsure about Peddlers',but he would have run a nice race I'm sure.

Hulk Hands

MDWexford, it's very hard to know what your referring to when your post is structured like that. I said shut up only because you branded my post hilarious at the start.

Ive been following racing 8 years, since age 13.

The Dunguib over the top idea is coming from Fenton's comments that 6 races was too much for him last term, and to campaign him with spring in mind this term. I never stated it as fact, it is simply a theory.

By the way, Binocular has been out of the frame 3 times in the last 14. Out of the 1st 2 in 7 and 5 runner races is out of the frame.

And yes, inconsistent in that, to my mind, he has shown his best form 3 times since and including the supreme novice second. I'm sorry that the word pig offends so many (probably bad choice of words), but I dislike horses that need everything in their favour to be seen to good effect. Binocular seems to need decent ground, a fast pace, to be trained to the day. Even sometimes thats not good enough for him to show his best, see 2009 CH.

Anyway, ive said enough about Dunguib. He's not even my main fancy in the race (Hurricane Fly). Like I said above, if he does flop, I wont be coming out of it with egg on my face. It will simply be a 14/1 shot running as expected. Thats more than can be said for some people if he does actually finish in the frame.

HigginsJ

MDWexford

Fenton wasnt "afraid" to try him against HF and Solwhit. The horse had a set back a few days before the race and Fenton felt he wouldnt do himself justice. Obviously that was a ruse by fenton to keep his horse from being found out (but then again he went to punchestown last year after a long campaign so its probably most likely he simply wasnt ready)

Of course bumper form means nothing, dont rate Cue Card then. Dunguib did finish 3rd in last years supreme after winning 2 grade 1's. Missed That was a potential Gold Cup horse after 2 grade 1 wins in his novice season.

Menorah may well be better than Dunguib. But the evidence of last years Supreme is hardly conclusive is it? 2 lenghts following a poor ride (or not if you want) is still only 2 lengths.

You must have made massive winnings from Menorah last year if you knew Dunguib would never finish in front of him. How much did you have on at 12-1 and bigger i wonder??!! :mad:

UrbanSea

''Don't rate Cue Card then''.

Yes,we'll ignore all ratings that have him ahead of Dunguib and still a novice.

HigginsJ

UrbanSea wrote: »

''Don't rate Cue Card then''.

Yes,we'll ignore all ratings that have him ahead of Dunguib and still a novice.

My comment was aimed at MDWexford who said bumper form counts for nothing. I was wondering how he rated Cue Card. I personally think he is most likely winner of Supreme but will be looking for value elsewhere.

mdwexford

Hulk Hands wrote: »

MDWexford, it's very hard to know what your referring to when your post is structured like that. I said shut up only because you branded my post hilarious at the start.

Ive been following racing 8 years, since age 13.

The Dunguib over the top idea is coming from Fenton's comments that 6 races was too much for him last term, and to campaign him with spring in mind this term. I never stated it as fact, it is simply a theory.

By the way, Binocular has been out of the frame 3 times in the last 14. Out of the 1st 2 in 7 and 5 runner races is out of the frame.

And yes, inconsistent in that, to my mind, he has shown his best form 3 times since and including the supreme novice second. I'm sorry that the word pig offends so many (probably bad choice of words), but I dislike horses that need everything in their favour to be seen to good effect. Binocular seems to need decent ground, a fast pace, to be trained to the day. Even sometimes thats not good enough for him to show his best, see 2009 CH.

Anyway, ive said enough about Dunguib. He's not even my main fancy in the race (Hurricane Fly). Like I said above, if he does flop, I wont be coming out of it with egg on my face. It will simply be a 14/1 shot running as expected. Thats more than can be said for some people if he does actually finish in the frame.

I agree, it was awkward though because i was replying to a lot.
I found it amusing, a bit rude but hey its Cheltenham debate time.

13 year olds cant comprehend racing or betting.

Meh still top 3, suppose you dont get paid on ew so ill allow it.

Hes had 5 165+ performances since the Sup Nov.
I also dont like horses that only perform once a year, one of the many reasons i despised Hardy Eustace but he needs a lightening pace and a decent size field just have to deal with it.

2009 Champ Hurdle was still a very good run and he was still very young.

HigginsJ wrote: »

MDWexford

Fenton wasnt "afraid" to try him against HF and Solwhit. The horse had a set back a few days before the race and Fenton felt he wouldnt do himself justice. Obviously that was a ruse by fenton to keep his horse from being found out (but then again he went to punchestown last year after a long campaign so its probably most likely he simply wasnt ready)

Of course bumper form means nothing, dont rate Cue Card then. Dunguib did finish 3rd in last years supreme after winning 2 grade 1's. Missed That was a potential Gold Cup horse after 2 grade 1 wins in his novice season.

Menorah may well be better than Dunguib. But the evidence of last years Supreme is hardly conclusive is it? 2 lenghts following a poor ride (or not if you want) is still only 2 lengths.

You must have made massive winnings from Menorah last year if you knew Dunguib would never finish in front of him. How much did you have on at 12-1 and bigger i wonder??!! :mad:

Hes had all year to run him and all hes appeared in is the Red Mills.

Im rating Cue Card on this years hurdles form, last years bumper form does mean nothing in regards to the Sup Nov.

Dunguibs two Irish grade 1 were awful.

Menorah is better than Dunguib, its not up for debate.

When did i say i knew Menorah would finish ahead of Dunguib last year?
Dont be putting words in my mouth, thanks.

But for the record i thought Dunguib was a lay last year.

Hulk Hands

mdwexford wrote: »

Majority of deluded people like you maybe, myself and most knowledgable race readers thought Dunguib would never finish ahead of Menorah.

Earlier in the thread I said i'd happily take 2/1 about Dunguib finishing ahead of Menorah. Since you (and most knowlegeable race readers) think this is a cert, surely 1/2 is a good price.

Transfer a smallish bet sum over to a mod the night before the race to make it safe? Just offering.

UrbanSea

HigginsJ wrote: »

My comment was aimed at MDWexford who said bumper form counts for nothing. I was wondering how he rated Cue Card. I personally think he is most likely winner of Supreme but will be looking for value elsewhere.

Alright.

mdwexford

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Earlier in the thread I said i'd happily take 2/1 about Dunguib finishing ahead of Menorah. Since you (and most knowlegeable race readers) think this is a cert, surely 1/2 is a good price.

Transfer a smallish bet sum over to a mod the night before the race to make it safe? Just offering.

Id probably give you 13/8 on the day.

Just because i think he will finish ahead of him doesnt mean im going to give you a much bigger price than he should be.

HigginsJ

Hes had all year to run him and all hes appeared in is the Red Mills.

Im rating Cue Card on this years hurdles form, last years bumper form does mean nothing in regards to the Sup Nov.

Dunguibs two Irish grade 1 were awful.

Menorah is better than Dunguib, its not up for debate.

When did i say i knew Menorah would finish ahead of Dunguib last year?
Dont be putting words in my mouth, thanks.

But for the record i thought Dunguib was a lay last year.[/QUOTE]

The reason he hasnt run him is because he was worried that he was over the top by the end of last year. (not saying he was before you say its an excuse just that he might have been)

You said in earlier post that knowledgeable people knew Dunguib would never finish in front of Menorah. I say that Menorah being better than Dunguib is still up for debate. One meeting is not conclusive. Ill hold my hands up if im wrong but cant see it. Dunguib will be in top 3. Think he will win but bit worried by Peddlers Cross