Scary, scary thought: if the boards.ie poll came true

CelticRambler

... with just three constituencies left to declare, FF are struggling to keep company even with "others". :eek:

So maybe it's an "unrepresentative" population, but what would be the effect of a real-world result that left FF equal (+/-1 seat) with the Greens and People Before Profit - nothing more than a marginal party?

Sir Oxman

I doubt that will happen, I think FF will get 20-25 seats unforunately.
If it did though, it would be the greatest day in Ireland's history.
A right-left divide, just like normal countries. Maybe even room for a Liberal centre to emerge.

zig

CelticRambler wrote: »

... with just three constituencies left to declare, FF are struggling to keep company even with "others". :eek:

So maybe it's an "unrepresentative" population,

I think this is the important part, boards or any forums for that matter would be staunch anti FF compare to real life. Mainly because its a younger generation, not to mention a generation not tied up in parish pump politics.
I dont think that poll has any accuracy regarding FFs position. I really really hope im wrong though

super_furry

Why is it a scary thought? It's something I'd more than welcome.

Laminations

Yeah I agree with gambiaman. I started a thread like this pointing towards FFs disastrous boards.ie poll results and most responses I got were 'aint gonna happen, poll isn't representative'. That wasn't really my point, I was asking what if for FF supporters in such a scenario. Would we still still people remain loyal to a party with only 4 seats? A party whose main attraction for people seems to be that they're the party of government.

So obviously like gambiaman says, these figures ain't gonna be replicated come election but IF they were, I'd think it'd open up a fresh new chapter in Irish politics and allow room for new parties to sell their wares next election. It'd send a strong message to all our politicians that incompetence, complacency and low standards will not be tolerated by the public, which would be a huge step in the right direction

Oh yeah and it ain't a scary thought?? It's a wishful one

Colmo52

That would be awesome!!!

telekon

Colmo52 wrote: »

That would be awesome!!!

Colmo, I hate that your sig pic with every ounce of my being. :mad::mad:

oppenheimer1

The thing that should most worry FF about the poll on boards is the demographic that uses it. If so many young people are disenfranchised with the party then it doesn't bode well for their future.

Then again peoples opinions change as they get older.

telekon

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

The thing that should most worry FF about the poll on boards is the demographic that uses it. If so many young people are disenfranchised with the party then it doesn't bode well for their future.

Then again peoples opinions change as they get older.

I feel a FF 'rebranding' coming on with young hipsters such as Thomas Byrne leading the charge...:rolleyes:



Look at him...he wouldnt be out of place in Lemass' governement in the 60s. Little gombeen man.

super_furry

telekon wrote: »

I feel a FF 'rebranding' coming on with young hipsters such as Thomas Byrne leading the charge...:rolleyes:



Look at him...he wouldnt be out of place in Lemass' governement in the 60s. Little gombeen man.

I was going to say Flannerys on a Tuesday night.

johnmcdnl

I know a lot of you still think that the older generations and the grannies of the country will still all vote FF...

but why do you say that??? Now I'm not so naive to say that FF will only get 4 seats maybe in the elections but from what I've seen a lot of older FF voters are now changing their thinking..

My granny would have voted FF/FG without question which probably a bias toward FF..

However in this election she doesn't think she's even going to vote for FF at all because of what they've done to the country and how useless the FF candidates in out area were when they were in the Dáil...
I doubt she's going to be the only older person who realises that FF were a disgrace now at this point and although there will be some people who'll still vote FF their numbers will be well down.. probably not to 3-4 - but 15-20 absolute max imo...

zig

johnmcdnl wrote: »

I know a lot of you still think that the older generations and the grannies of the country will still all vote FF...

but why do you say that??? Now I'm not so naive to say that FF will only get 4 seats maybe in the elections but from what I've seen a lot of older FF voters are now changing their thinking..

My granny would have voted FF/FG without question which probably a bias toward FF..

However in this election she doesn't think she's even going to vote for FF at all because of what they've done to the country and how useless the FF candidates in out area were when they were in the Dáil...
I doubt she's going to be the only older person who realises that FF were a disgrace now at this point and although there will be some people who'll still vote FF their numbers will be well down.. probably not to 3-4 - but 15-20 absolute max imo...

fair point but my fear is that people of that generation wont bother voting at all.

Colmo52

telekon wrote: »

Colmo, I hate that your sig pic with every ounce of my being. :mad::mad:

I am using boards mobile so I dont have to look at it.:D

Liam Byrne

Not even remotely scary! I'd welcome it 100%

Sir Oxman

Polls out now - FF climbing up (+4%), Labour imploding (-3%), FG steady as she goes...

Guess we'll have to wait for the total demise of FF

telekon

gambiaman wrote: »

Polls out now - FF climbing up (+4%), Labour imploding (-3%), FG steady as she goes...

Guess we'll have to wait for the total demise of FF

I knew this was going to happen. :mad:

The rats will be re-boarding the ship as it gets nearer to polling day. You can add 4-5% to their core vote too taking into consideration the cowards who don't make their intentions known publicly and keep it for the privacy of the polling booth.

Mark my words, FF will get 23-25% of first preferences. Thank god for transfers or it would be a complete disaster...

Sir Oxman

I've long since not entertained the notion that FF would be totally decimated, it's more a wish - I still think they won't hit 30 seats.
I'm disgusted at Labour, a hugely catastrophic campaign and the number of candidates they've run on these figures will backfire big time. Oops.

Slick50

There are a lot of life long FF voters out there who have lost a huge ammount of money through investments, shares etc. who are feeling very sore, and know who to blame. FF could get their deserved kicking yet, not 4 +or- whatever, but hopefully under 20.

Liam Byrne

Slick50 wrote: »

There are a lot of life long FF voters out there who have lost a huge ammount of money through investments, shares etc. who are feeling very sore, and know who to blame. FF could get their deserved kicking yet, not 4 +or- whatever, but hopefully under 20.

Well if they voted FF, they got what they deserve and can't complain.

The problem is that they foisted FF - and their disasters - onto the rest of us.

DeVore

I really am tearing my hair out about some people repeating their perceptions as truth.

Here are some *facts*.

1. FF's largest voting block in our poll is females in the 18-24 age group.

2. "Boards doesnt have older voters". While admitedly we have a dearth of 65+ voters, we have a decent number of 55+ voters (5% of the poll) and they simply ARENT voting FF. In fact the 55-64 age bracket has voted THE LEAST for FF of ALL of our age groups.

Read that again, of all age groups, 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54.... all of those age groups voted MORE for FF than 55-64 did. (however, 65+ voted for them quite a bit).


The story of this election is in the tranfers and in the Independents. Mark my words carefully.


DeV.

telekon

DeVore wrote: »

1. FF's largest voting block in our poll is females in the 18-24 age group.

What...the...hell...is that about???


Maybe its Mickey Martin's nice aesthetics and, as one jornalist put it lately, "his doe eyes"...:rolleyes:

CDfm

Laminations wrote: »

Yeah I agree with gambiaman. I started a thread like this pointing towards FFs disastrous boards.ie poll results and most responses I got were 'aint gonna happen, poll isn't representative'. That wasn't really my point, I was asking what if for FF supporters in such a scenario. Would we still still people remain loyal to a party with only 4 seats? A party whose main attraction for people seems to be that they're the party of government.


Oh yeah and it ain't a scary thought?? It's a wishful one

I imagine very few FF supporters would post and thats because they would get a roasting.;)

myrak

zig wrote: »

fair point but my fear is that people of that generation wont bother voting at all.

That generation????
Many of the 400,000 unemployed have grannies and grandads.
Many schoolchildren have grannies and grandads who know all too well about their prefabs and the cost of their book lists.
Many grannies are carers to grandads and vica versa.
Many grannies and grandads work in low paid jobs and saw the drop in their last pay packet.
And as for not voting...older people value their vote as many of them have memories of a previous generation who earned us that right.
'That generation' is like any other generation...a mixed bunch and sold out with the rest.

Slick50

DeVore wrote: »

The story of this election is in the tranfers and in the Independents. Mark my words carefully. DeV.

Sorry DeVore, don't mean to finish your hair off, but I missed what your words are.?? Do you think fianna fail are going to finish up with 4 odd seats?

telekon wrote:

Maybe its Mickey Martin's nice aesthetics and, as one jornalist put it lately, "his doe eyes"...

this time next week, that's going to be "doh!" eyes

CDfm wrote:

I imagine very few FF supporters would post and thats because they would get a roasting.

"Real" fianna failers, have no shame, and would not accept that they were being roasted.

Sir Oxman

DeVore wrote: »

I really am tearing my hair out about some people repeating their perceptions as truth.

Here are some *facts*.

1. FF's largest voting block in our poll is females in the 18-24 age group.

2. "Boards doesnt have older voters". While admitedly we have a dearth of 65+ voters, we have a decent number of 55+ voters (5% of the poll) and they simply ARENT voting FF. In fact the 55-64 age bracket has voted THE LEAST for FF of ALL of our age groups.

Read that again, of all age groups, 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54.... all of those age groups voted MORE for FF than 55-64 did. (however, 65+ voted for them quite a bit).


The story of this election is in the tranfers and in the Independents. Mark my words carefully.


DeV.

Only 32 were elected on the first count in 2007 so yes, it's all in the transfers!:P

CDfm

Slick50 wrote: »

"Real" fianna failers, have no shame, and would not accept that they were being roasted.

No shame you say, that sounds like a party I might like, how can one join

hatrickpatrick

CelticRambler wrote: »

... with just three constituencies left to declare, FF are struggling to keep company even with "others". :eek:

So maybe it's an "unrepresentative" population, but what would be the effect of a real-world result that left FF equal (+/-1 seat) with the Greens and People Before Profit - nothing more than a marginal party?

What would happen, you ask? Celebration. Fireworks. Beer. Shotgun salutes.
The day would be declared a national holiday.

Seriously, why is this a scary thought? They've destroyed our country in every possible way. Good f*cking riddance to them and please DO let the door hit you on the way out.

nesf

DeVore wrote: »

I really am tearing my hair out about some people repeating their perceptions as truth.

Here are some *facts*.

1. FF's largest voting block in our poll is females in the 18-24 age group.

2. "Boards doesnt have older voters". While admitedly we have a dearth of 65+ voters, we have a decent number of 55+ voters (5% of the poll) and they simply ARENT voting FF. In fact the 55-64 age bracket has voted THE LEAST for FF of ALL of our age groups.

Read that again, of all age groups, 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54.... all of those age groups voted MORE for FF than 55-64 did. (however, 65+ voted for them quite a bit).


The story of this election is in the tranfers and in the Independents. Mark my words carefully.


DeV.

There's a lot of self-selection in that though, out 55+ population is not going to be representative of the most conservative of that group and those are the hotbed of FF supporters.

cestlavie

It would make my year to be honest.

DeVore

No, I think there are explainable reasons why our FF numbers are off (and Nesf probably has hit one of them on the head). My only point is that the numbers tell a tale of their own (for example the young female FF voting bloc).

Do I believe they will only get 4 seats? No. My best guess (and its just that) is that they will get a good few more than that but significantly less than is being predicted off the 1st preference polls. FF appear to be transfer toxic and many people seem intent on voting tactically to punish FF specifically.

Let me explain that for those who might be confused. In the past a FG voter would probably have voted FF before Labour. Etc etc... but in our numbers, we're seeing an "anyone but FF" approach across all the party voters.

If only 32 were elected on first count in the last election, well thats an upper limit for FF as far as I can see! lol...
They just arent getting the transfers, at least in our poll.

DeV.

nesf

Dev, is there any chance we could get numbers showing average transfer %'s? i.e. where the average Labour supporter transfers to etc.

Shelflife

Im Amazed at the results, but in a way not totally suprised. as a person who has basically voted FF all my life but not an avid supporter i know find myself in a FG / anyone but FF. i would usually vote all the way down the card but FF will not get ANY vote this time.

This backs up what Devore has pointed out above.

In what is an amazing situation my father a die hard FFer is actually considering not voting for them , he prob will still vote FF but the fact that he even considering voting FG is astounding.

nearly 19k voters, even allowing for a slant the fact that 19k have expressed their views and we have the results here before our eyes.

I think FF will really struggle, and will get less then 30 seats maybe less then 25.

as devore said the proof of the pudding will be in the transfers and thats where FF will hit the rocks.

BTW its a fantastic idea and well done to all involved.

Bottle_of_Smoke

DeVore wrote: »

I really am tearing my hair out about some people repeating their perceptions as truth.

Here are some *facts*.

1. FF's largest voting block in our poll is females in the 18-24 age group.

2. "Boards doesnt have older voters". While admitedly we have a dearth of 65+ voters, we have a decent number of 55+ voters (5% of the poll) and they simply ARENT voting FF. In fact the 55-64 age bracket has voted THE LEAST for FF of ALL of our age groups.

Read that again, of all age groups, 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54.... all of those age groups voted MORE for FF than 55-64 did. (however, 65+ voted for them quite a bit).

Thing is - what percentage of the electorate are made up by 55+ voters?

Its surely well more than 5%. I reckon its just the type of 55+ voter who visits boards.ie is also more likely to be the type of person who would recognise all that is wrong with FF and not be swayed by a charismatic Micheal Martin

Therefore I just don't think its gonna be representative. Thought the support from the 18-24 females is very surprising.

Your transfers point makes sense intuitively but the polls I've read stated the method used includes transfers They go to an area and get 500 constituents to take part in in house sueveys. They give them mock ballot cards and get them to fill them in the same way they would on the polling day. Some even spoiled their vote

DeVore

They poll 1000 people country wide and from what I have seen do not drill down into people's second and subsequent votes (transfers).

The benefit they have is that they are are able to select people who are randomly chosen and fit their demographic requirements.


One thing I think people need to consider, which I've heard no one mention so far, is that last election no one was particularly incentivised to vote. The outcome was pretty much a forgone conclusion and the "usual voters" came out to vote.
This time we are going to have a HUGE turnout imho, as no one wants to let this opportunity pass.... that alone is going to have a HUGE impact.

Sure 55+ may have had a large say in the last election... relatively, no one else turned up. This time we are going to hear from a much larger number of younger people.

DeV.

K-9

The last election wasn't a foregone conclusion, a swing of a few seats to FG/Labour and it could have been a different outcome.

How transfer toxic FF are is going to be the big talking point this time.

DeVore

Voting ages/percentages from the last few elections. We've used these to try to "unskew" the age disparity in our voters... (made surprisingly little difference).

Expect that to change for this election though... I predict that the younger voters will come out a bit more this time.

DeV.

jimmycrackcorm

The Boards poll takes no account of either internet mischief nor the fact that there are huge numbers of emigrated taking part. It can only show a broad reflective view. Devore is correct about reading on the independents and transfers though. The interesting bit for me will be how well FF do on transfers.


Anyway I'm first to call fix on the boards poll - Learnt that from the X-factor voting

Sad Professor

I don't trust any polls when it comes to FF's level of support. Look at what happened in the 1992 UK election. I think the same thing is happening here. I predict FF will win 30 seats at least.

DeVore

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

The Boards poll takes no account of either internet mischief nor the fact that there are huge numbers of emigrated taking part. It can only show a broad reflective view. Devore is correct about reading on the independents and transfers though. The interesting bit for me will be how well FF do on transfers.


Anyway I'm first to call fix on the boards poll - Learnt that from the X-factor voting

We have taken great account of "internet michief" of which there has been surprisingly little. On what grounds do you say "huge numbers of emigrated taking part"?

Have you got any basis for that at all? How are you determining that?

(I'm not saying it couldnt happen, or even that it isnt happening... I'm saying you are making it up that you know its happening.)

I'm first to call shenanigans on your post.

DeV.

jimmycrackcorm

Unlike our actual statutory vote there is no national restrictions on membership of boards so effectively anyone can vote. There are a lot of emigrated who use boards as an medium to connect back to home. Perhaps I'm wrong but you'd know better....

When I say internet mischief, I don't mean there is a big conspiracy to subvert the poll, only that I'm aware of a few posters like myself that like to play about with our voting patterns just because we can. If you want to call shenanigans on my post then tell me that after hours posting reflects general Irish opinion.

Even a simplistic comparison of threads on more serious forums here such as politics and those on politics.ie would reflect a huge divergence in opinion that would suggest the same poll on either would but significantly divergent.

jimmycrackcorm

Sad Professor wrote: »

I don't trust any polls when it comes to FF's level of support. Look at what happened in the 1992 UK election. I think the same thing is happening here. I predict FF will win 30 seats at least.

The one thing I've never heard on media debates is if FF are to blame for our predicament in having th IMF come in then why are the greeks in worse **** without FF having had leading them?

People are angry, and rightly so, but there is always a populism backlash....

to tall for yous

its bye bye ff.and while were at it,take their cars houses apartments here and in other countrys, savings passports the lot

Liam Byrne

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

The one thing I've never heard on media debates is if FF are to blame for our predicament in having th IMF come in then why are the greeks in worse **** without FF having had leading them?

People are angry, and rightly so, but there is always a populism backlash....

Maybe because Greece had people who were even more corrupt and incompetent?

Why compare us to the lowest common denominator?

DeVore

DeVore wrote: »

Sure 55+ may have had a large say in the last election... relatively, no one else turned up. This time we are going to hear from a much larger number of younger people.

DeV.

Turn out at the last general election was 67% which is very high source .
Ergo that was a very good reflection of the views of the electorate in 2007,young old and middle aged.

What is the turnout so far in the boards simulation?

Nadaur

super_furry wrote: »

Why is it a scary thought? It's something I'd more than welcome.

well said.........they've been utterly responsible for our current predicament...(not to mention a few in the past)

CDfm

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Maybe because Greece had people who were even more corrupt and incompetent?

Why compare us to the lowest common denominator?

I am not saying our crowd in government and the civil service were not idiots -it is economics 101.

But - we joined the Euro and the euro mechanism caused us to give up more sovereignty then Lisbon.

So the thing the euro was supposed to stop it had no mechanism for and it also affected Portugal Italy Greece and Spain.

It is not totally our fault.

There was a lot of greed about - publuc service worker grred roo.

Lower wages is an economic policy.

Comparative and absolute advantage in economics tells you that.

Lets get wise to europe as a small open economy.

TGQ

Firstly, i welcome this vote/poll idea. well done to everyone involved in setting it up. However, its not a realistic representation of how people are going to vote. I live in Galway East and Currently it has Cannon (FG) topping poll followed by Keaveney and Higgins (both Lab) and Connolly (SF) getting last seat. there isn't a bulls notion of them 4 getting elected. In fact i would go so far to say that if 1 of them is lucky to get elected that will be it, possibly 2 but thats being very lucky with transfers. The Favourites for the seats are Connaughton (FG) to top poll followed by either Kitt/Dolan (FF) followed by 2nd FG seat and Canney (IND)/Lab for 4th seat. (Galway East currently has 2 FF and 2 FG)

The same can be said in Galway West where is has Nolan (lab) getting elected on 1st count followed by Connolly (Ind Lab) followed by SF and 2 FG seats. Nolan will not get elected on 1st count and could be struggling to get last seat. O'Cuiv (FF) will top the poll.

I have looked at the results of a lot of the constituties and from what i see it seems there are a lot Lab/SF voters voting. A lot higher % than what any of the national polls are giving. Currently per the poll there are 2 constituties to be counted (8 seats).
FG 60 - 38%
FF 4 - 3%
Lab 45 - 28%
SF 24 - 15%
Greens 3 - 2%
Ind + Oths 22 - 14%.

Firstly FG will get more than 60 seats i predict 72-75
FF will get more than 4, i predict 30-35
Lab will not get 45. i predict 32-37
SF will not get 24, more likly 15-17
Greens might get 4 seats
and others will be in or around 15 - 18 seats.

2 further things i want to add.
Firstly the farming public will not vote labour (See Farming journal Poll last thurs). It will be either FG or FF. so FF will get some transfers there or else people will stop once they finish voting FG 1,2,3 etc.

Secondly the weather next friday will have a bit to say on the outcome of the election. If its a wet miserable freezing cold day, turn out will be down and this will favour FF because the FF core vote will still go out and vote. however if its a nice mild day and the sun shines Enda will be roaring up mayo on Saturday cause turnout will surpass 70% and the higher that goes the more change we are going to see.


i know i might have rambled on a bit so i apologise.

Spidermany

I'm surprised by the number of young people who have an interest this time around. Last time there was a lot of apathy. My youngest sister and her friends wouldn't vote as they said there was no point. This time, everyone seems to intending to vote in that age group - I work with a youth group so I'm comparing kids of the same age, not ones who are now 4 years older.

This time kids in national schools are using the internet to look up parties and holding mock elections, kids in secondary seem to be talking about it and debating it. I think it's great, this is the way life used to be when I was a kid a lifetime ago.

My MIL has been a FF all her life, fully paid up member of the local cumann. But she's voting FG this time around. It's not just about her lifestyle changes - cost of health care, waiting lists, pension decreases etc. This time she's noticing other people - tax increases, water charges, increase in bin charges. The populace seems to be more aware of the impact of policies this time.

In 2007 a lot of people had the attitude - "if it's not broken why fix it?" TG we are now educating ourselves and our children.

DeVore

Deleted User wrote: »

Turn out at the last general election was 67% which is very high source .
Ergo that was a very good reflection of the views of the electorate in 2007,young old and middle aged.

What is the turnout so far in the boards simulation?

19,096 votes cast as of this moment.

DeV.

CDfm

Spidermany wrote: »

I



My MIL has been a FF all her life, fully paid up member of the local cumann. But she's voting FG this time around. It's not just about her lifestyle changes - cost of health care, waiting lists, pension decreases etc. This time she's noticing other people - tax increases, water charges, increase in bin charges. The populace seems to be more aware of the impact of policies this time.

In 2007 a lot of people had the attitude - "if it's not broken why fix it?" TG we are now educating ourselves and our children.

I think there was a little bit of "the poor little nursey -everybody loves a nursey" last time.

Our healthcare budget should be delivering a free NHS and it doesnt.

Everything like water, rubbish and everything else is a public good that costs money.

People got used to not paying for them but the money is being spent elsewhere.

These goods were never free.

I know a guy who converted two unoccupied flats to offices and let them out for cheap rents.The rates assessed and contribution required by the urban council for the units was 3 years profit. Unrealistic. Those profits would be this mans wages.

So you need to look at it that way too. The Town Halls do - its fine to look at public utilities etc with a someone should do something about it philosophy and to take when someone else is paying.

What has happened with the EU is that we have aspired too and got service levels similar to europe - that is what the EU vision does service levels at a european average.

There are no rich people to pay to pay for them -if you try to tax the multinationals more they will up and base in cheaper countries.

People need to be realistic about what they want & if you want your local hospitals you are going to have higher taxes charges and waiting lists for that luxury.

EVerything you want is yours but you have to pay for it.

Liam Byrne

CDfm wrote: »

People need to be realistic about what they want & if you want your local hospitals you are going to have higher taxes charges and waiting lists for that luxury.

EVerything you want is yours but you have to pay for it.

We shouldn't have to pay more for it, though. We're already paying for things we don't want and have no choice in the matter.