Irelands most likely Olympic 2012 Medals

Dan man

Irish triathlete Aileen Morrison continued to show impressive form by placing 4th at the latest leg of the World Cup series in Mexico at the weekend. Gavin Noble did not finish in the men's race so misses out on valuable Olympic qualification points.

Dodge

With Dan Martin finishing 2nd in the Giro de Lombardia today, Ireland finish the UCI world rankings season in 13th place

Dan man

Dodge wrote: »

With Dan Martin finishing 2nd in the Giro de Lombardia today, Ireland finish the UCI world rankings season in 13th place

Excellent news there Dodge...this race always was suited to Dan Martin as it was one for the climbers. 13th nation on the U.C.I. World Tour rankings is an amazing achievement.

Dan man

Aileen Morrison claimed a superb silver medal at the Triathlon World Cup in Tongyeong, South Korea today. Although many of the top names were not present at this event, it was a creditable performance by Morrison and she bags a heap more Olympic qualification points. According to the Triathlon Ireland website, Morrison is now unassailable in her position amongst the Olympic qualifiers so barring injury she will be on the start-line in Hyde Park, London at the Games. This was Morrison's final race of the season so she can look back at 2011 as another super year.

The_Kew_Tour

Realistically who has a chance of winning a medal?

First of all I think it is a fantastic achievement just to get to the Olympics and wish everybody the very best.

Just curious as to who has a chance of getting medal. I presume Taylor has great chance of at least getting a medal right, in the womens boxing?

How many Boxers will qualify for it?

I think we could do very well next year maybe not in medals but certainly we should do very well in few disciplines

Dan man

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Realistically who has a chance of winning a medal?

First of all I think it is a fantastic achievement just to get to the Olympics and wish everybody the very best.

Just curious as to who has a chance of getting medal. I presume Taylor has great chance of at least getting a medal right, in the womens boxing?

How many Boxers will qualify for it?

I think we could do very well next year maybe not in medals but certainly we should do very well in few disciplines

Ok, it is hard to say how well we will do in terms of medals as we are still 9-10months away from the Olympics and I do not have a crystal ball, but I will try and give a few pointers from having tracked our athletes for the last number of years.
Boxing is the best place to start as this sport is most likely to throw up Irish success in London (and may be the only sport in which we get medals). Katie Taylor in the women's lightweight division is the overwhelming favourite to land a gold medal at the Olympics, however, she has not even qualified yet and the worrying thing is that there is only one opportunity for women to book a spot in London 2012. This opportunity will be at the Worlds next spring so we pray to God she doesn't pick up an injury. So, Katie Taylor should qualify and if she wins the World Championships next spring then she will be odds on for a gold medal. As for the male boxers, we have three qualified so far, John Joe Nevin, Darren O'Neill and Michael Conlon. Michael Conlon is only 18 i think and showed real class when reaching the quarter-finals of the world championships and could go even better next year. John Joe Nevin picked up a bronze at the World Champs and was only beaten on countback after the scores were tied in his semi. So he will be in with a shout of a medal also. Ireland has one more opportunity to qualify male boxers for the Olympics at a qualifying tournament next year. Some great talents such as Paddy Barnes (2008 Olympic bronze medallist) and Joe Ward (European champ, and still only 17) will be looking to secure their tickets to London. It has to be said that any Irish boxer who qualifies for the Olympics will have a good chance of a medal but a lot will depend on the draw so it is hard to say how many medals we could win. A conservative estimate would say at least one male boxer will medal as well as Katie Taylor who currently looks on target for gold. I could say a lot more about boxing but this general overview should do for now.
Athletics, in my opinion, is the next most likely sport to deliver us success. Robert Heffernan in the 50km walk finshed 4th at the Europeans last year (in both 20km and 50km) in his first major race at the distance and is building towards challenging for a medal at the Olympics. This is certainly a realistic target for the Cork man as most of his main challengers will be Europeans (apart from the Chinese and maybe an Australian or Mexican walker) and at the Europeans in 2010, he went off conservatively due to his lack of experience at the distance and flew past the field in the latter stages to finish 4th, having also placed 4th just days earlier in the 20km Walk (very gruelling schedule). Rob backs himself for gold next year but a medal is a more realistic target and certainly achievable.
Ciaran O'Lionaird in the 1,500m came out of nowhere to place 10th at the World Championships and has now decided to move to Oregon to train alongside Britain's world champion over 5,000m Mo Farah, under the tutelage of top class coach Alberto Salazar. It is so hard to predict how he will do next year, but his determination and drive augurs well for a big showing come the Olympics. Currently, I wouldn't say he is in medal territory, but some positive performances next year could change this.
Olive Loughnane in the women's 20km walk could do well if she has an outstanding season next year and she has won a world silver medal in 2009. 2010 and 2011 were not good to her however, so as it stands, she will not be a medal favourite, but has shown potential.
I am not yet writing of our swimmers chances of success either as Grainne Murphy in the 800m Freestyle or 400m Individual Medley could catapult herself into contention with a strong showing next season. She is going to be the first Irish swimmer to compete at the infamous "Duel in the Pool", a top class swim competition between U.S.A. and Europe so this will be ideal preparation for her. She has the class to be an Olympic medallist, but London may just come a year too soon for her. However, swimmers her age (18) could make a giant leap forward in one season so who knows.
Chris Bryan in the open-water swimming cannot be discounted as he is making huge advances in the sport but only has one more shot at qualification. If he makes the team and continues his current path of development, he will surely go close to a top 5 performance in London.
Irish triathlete Aileen Morrison is consistently inside the top 10 or top 15 in major global meets such as World Cups and has indeed medalled in these events and won a European Cup. Triathlon is so hard to predict though as there are so many athletes with very little between them at the top and anything could happen on the day. It has to be said however, she is definitely in medal territory.
Individual showjumpers are another outside chance as we have world-class riders such as Denis Lynch, Billy Twomey and others with decent mounts, but this sport is perhaps the hardest of all to predict and major competitions in the sport have not been kind to our riders. I would suggest a medal is unlikely but certainly achievable.
Sailing should give us a great shot at success in London, considering the calibre of some of our current sailors as well as their familiarity with the prevailing sailing conditions to be expected at Weymouth (the sailing regatta for London). Annalise Murphy in the Women's Laser Radial is an outstanding talent and at her best can beat everyone else in her fleet. However, in light winds she is prone to some bad performances which have scuppered her chances of gold at some major competitions. However, her graph of success is on the rise and I would suggest that she will be very close to a medal next year and if she is up there, then a gold medal is even possible.
Irish star-fleet sailors Peter O'Leary and David Burrows are also medal contenders. The pair have won some major competitions over the last 12 months and are constantly appearing in the top 5 of such competitions. A lack of consistency has been an issue but there is no doubting that this duo have what it takes to be Olympic medallists next year.

To sum it up, Ireland will win a medal, likely to win more than one medal. 3 medals would be a very achievable target for us and it would not be a stretch to say we can get 5 medals. One of these medals will probably be gold and inevitably Katie Taylor will be the one touted for this success.
In boxing I think we will win at least 2-3 medals, one of which could very well be gold.
In sailing, we have 2 strong fleets so I would give us a chance of at least 1 medal.
Between athletics, Aileen Morrison in triathlon, individual showjumpers and our top swimmers and perhaps Nicholas Roche in the road race cycling, we can hope that we have a good chance that one of these will sneak a medal, but by no way are they odds on to do it.
It seems that boxing will determine the picture of Ireland's medal successes at the London Olympics, so the more boxers we qualify, the more chances of us achieving medals.
My estimate is 4 medals (it is difficult to put a name to each of these medal winners, apart from Katie Taylor) and one of these medals should be gold.

I did not include great talents such as Derval O'Rourke, David Gillick, Sycerika McMahon and others for the fact that I am replying to a comment about Ireland's likely medal winners. Derval is an amazing hurdler and at her best could be up there for the medals, but a medal is not likely. David Gillick may well be in a position next season to challenge for a place in the 400m final and do very well in that final, but at present you could not say a medal is likely for him. Sycerika McMahon (swimmer) is definitely a likely Olympic medallist, but not in London as she is still developing her phenomenal talents. Same goes for Ciara Mageean in athletics who should make the Olympic team, but a medal is too much too ask at this early stage in her career.

The_Kew_Tour

Dan man wrote: »

Ok, it is hard to say how well we will do in terms of medals as we are still 9-10months away from the Olympics and I do not have a crystal ball, but I will try and give a few pointers from having tracked our athletes for the last number of years.
.

Thanks a million for that Dan man.

Really enjoyed reading it.

Dan man

Big day today for Ireland's star boxer Katie Taylor as she bids for a 5th successive European Championship gold medal. Her Russian opponent Ochigava will be a very tough test and she controversially beat Taylor at a competition last year. Ochigava will be one of Taylor's main obstacles for gold at the London Olympics so today's fight will be really interesting. Both boxers are at peak form in Rotterdam so this could be an awesome bout. You can watch the fight live on this link, fight starts 6pm Irish time.

http://www.europeanwomenboxingchampionships.com/Live.aspx

Dodge

Taylor won 10-5. Touch of revenge and a 5th European gold medal

Good day

The_Kew_Tour

Delighted for her.

She is a super boxer.

Dan man

Irish cyclist Martyn Irvine has demonstrated his huge potential by finishing in 5th position in his event at the European Track Championships in Appeldoorn, Netherlands. Irvine, competing in the Omnium, was in 9th place overnight having finished in 8th position in each of his first three disciplines. He had a superb second day culminating in a win in the scratch race which left him in silver medal position going in to the final event, the 1km time trial. Unfortunately, Irvine could only manage 8th place in this event, dropping him back to 5th place, just 4 points of the bronze medal and a mere 6 points from gold. This performance underlines the fact that he is in top 8-10 territory in the world and is continuing to progress. Olympic qualification should be his after the World Cup series and here's hoping he can keep up his impressive rise up the rankings in this event. In the women's team pursuit, the Irish ladies put in a decent performance to finish in 7th place, which should give them the confidence that they need to push for Olympic qualification. It won't be an easy task however, as they are well down the rankings (20th before this event and only 11th best European team, with only a quota for 6 European teams to qualify). Before these champs, Martyn Irvine was in 18th spot in the Olympic qualifying rankings. The important thing to note is that there is only a quota of 8 European riders to qualify in his event and Irvine was 12th best European. However, a strong season in the World Cup series will push him up the rankings and hopefully see him book his ticket to the Olympics.

Dan man

Martyn Irvine's position in the Olympic rankings (I've only included a list of European countries as this is the important ranking and the top 8 Europeans will secure an Olympic berth):

1. Great Britain 1,280PTS
2. Spain 753
3. Germany 620
4. Italy 580
5. Poland 500
6. Belgium 493
7. France 483
8. Netherlands 428
9. Denmark 420
10. Russia 410
11. IRELAND 385
12. Czech Republic 346

Although Irvine is currently outside of the top 8 cut-off point, the important thing to note is that there is still a heap of qualification points up for grabs in the World Cup series. A rider will secure 300pts for a win in the World Cup, 160 points for 5th place, 60 points for 10th so Martyn should continue to pick up valuable points if all goes well. He is just 43 points off the pace in the current rankings so plenty of scope to change his rank over the coming months. Apologies if any of the figures are incorrect as I have compiled them myself.

Dodge

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/uci-releases-olympic-road-race-allocations

UCI confirms 3 men's cycling road race places for Ireland and 1 time trial place

Dan man

Ireland's hopes of qualifying a men's hockey team for the London Olympics have been given a huge boost with the news that Dublin will host a men's qualifying tournament next year. Belgium were expected to stage a qualifying competition but the event was re-scheduled due to the fact that Belgium have already secured their spot in London. Ireland have been drawn to play Korea, Malaysia, Russia, Chile and Ukraine. This offers Ireland the best opportunity to qualify that I can recall, as all of those teams are very beatable, and with home advantage, I think Ireland are favourites for success. The teams will play in a round-robin group with the top two teams advancing to a winner takes all encounter on March 18th.

Dan man

The Irish women's hockey team face a daunting task to qualify as they have been drawn to play Spain, hosts Belgium, Russia, France and Mexico. Spain and Belgium, whilst beatable are very stiff opposition. Let's hope another year of the national squad centralised system will propel the women to success.

Dodge

In the October 2011 World Rankings, we'd be ranked 3rd;

Korea 6
Malaysia 14
Ireland 17
Russia 20
Chile 24
Ukraine 31

So its still a tough ask....

The women's qualifier is in Belgium. Ireland are ranked 2nd in that mini group;

Spain 11
Ireland 14
Belgium 16
Russia 21
France 25
Mexico 30

The ladies have a better chance IMO. Both tournaments played in March

Dan man

The Irish men have nothing to fear Dodge, of course it's a tough ask but they beat Korea 5-1 this summer in the challenge trophy and Malaysia aren't too much for our men. You are looking at rankings too much, in hockey they aren't all that reflective. The men have by far the best chance.

Dodge

Dan man wrote: »

You are looking at rankings too much, in hockey they aren't all that reflective.

I put them up for illustrative purposes only

The men have by far the best chance.

I disagree. No big deal

Lets hope both qualify

Dan man

Both have a big chance, I can't remember the teams having as good a chance as this before. For example, I think the last Olympics, the men had Argentina and New Zealand to contend with. Good luck to both squads. The centralised system the women are operating is very encouraging, hope this is continued and strengthened in the coming years but with more austerity budgets it will be difficult. A lot of the men play abroad in England and Belgium where there is competitive hockey leagues so this helps also.

swim2

Keep an eye out for Irish swimmers hoping for Olympic qualifying this weekend in Holland, hopefully some will get qualifying times.
RTE have some updates in their sports section on swimming

They will then travel to the European Short course championships in Poland

Dodge

Some go in finals this evening. SwimIreland and John Kenny tweeting results. Nice service

Hopefully Grainne Murphy (at least) gets a time

Dodge

Grainne Murphy got the A standerd at the Dutch nationals! She can focus on the Olympics now

Pisco Sour

Dodge wrote: »

Grainne Murphy got the A standerd at the Dutch nationals! She can focus on the Olympics now

Dont swim ireland require a swimmer to hit the A-Standard twice before they can go to the Olympics? Not that this would be a problem for Grainne or anything.

She didnt progress in 2011 like we were expecting but hopefully 2012 will be a different story.

Dan man

04072511 wrote: »

Dont swim ireland require a swimmer to hit the A-Standard twice before they can go to the Olympics? Not that this would be a problem for Grainne or anything.

She didnt progress in 2011 like we were expecting but hopefully 2012 will be a different story.

No, they only need the one time. Hopefully she will bounce back in 2012, she has lost her form but she has the potential to be world-class.

swim2

No they only need to get A time once. Its fanastic news for Grainne. Hopefully a few more can qualify too, maybe Sycerika Mc Mahon.

The last Olympics Swim Ireland decided to send some who had B times, but they changed it for this Olympics, which I think is better

Dan man

Irish track cyclist Martyn Irvine finished an impressive 5th in the latest leg of the World Cup Series, held in Cali, Colombia. However, Irvine has an extremely difficult task just to make the Olympics due to a major blow in the first World Cup event were an infringement in the elimination race meant he left Kazakhstan with no points to show for his efforts. As it stands (contrary to RTE and Irish Cycling website), I make Irvine the 10th best European in the Olympic qualifying rankings in which the top 8 European nations qualify a rider for the Omnium event. Although there are 3 qualification events still left with a heap of points up for grabs, these will be extremely competitive as all nations scramble for those all important qualification points. Irvine is good enough to be at the Olympics as he is consistently in the top 10 of World Cups and other major events, but he will need to go at least top 8 in each of the remaining events to have a chance of making the Olympics. The encouraging thing is that he looks on recent form that he is capable of this and if he achieves the feat then he will be brimming with confidence ahead of London. Irvine's next competitive outing will be the Beijing World Cup 13-15 January. Best of luck to him.

Dodge

So just a run down of sportspeople we have definitely qualified for the Olympics

Athletics- 12

Men
200m - Paul Hession
1,500m - Ciaran O'Lionaird
5,000m - Alistair Cragg
Marathon - Mark Kenneally
20k walk - Rob Heffernan
50k walk - Rob Heffernan, Brendan Boyce


Women
100m hurdlees - Derval O'Rourke
3,000m steeple - Fionnuala Britton/Stephanie Reilly
Marathon - Linda Byrne
20k walk - Olive Loughnane
High Jump - Deirdre Ryan


Boxing - 3
Michael Conlon (Flyweight - 52kg)
John Joe Nevin (Bantamweight - 56kg)
Darren O'Neill (Middleweight - 75kg)

Swimming - 2
Barry Murphy (100m breast)
Grainne Murphy (800m free)

Cycling - 4
Men's Road Race - 3 spots
Men's Time Trial - 1 spot

--

Big week for sailors as the World Championships for many classes happen in perth. Australia.

Dan man

You can also stick Aileen Morrison for triathlon onto your list. She has secured qualification as she is unassailable in the rankings.

Dodge

There's a few others looking good alright but until its confirmed...

Dan man

Dodge wrote: »

There's a few others looking good alright but until its confirmed...

Yes there are others looking good such as Lisa Kearney in judo as well as some of our badminton players. But Aileen Morrison is mathematically guaranteed a quota spot now which is great for her meaning she can pick and choose which events to compete in next year instead of scrambling for last minute points in remote parts of the globe.
"Fifty-five women qualify for London 2012, and even if she doesn’t compete in any further qualifying events between now and next August, Morrison is guaranteed to remain in the top 55." (Irish Times 9/11/2011)
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2011/1109/1224307250914.html