Irelands most likely Olympic 2012 Medals

Dodge

Jon caotes from the Daily Mail has said that the Irish Canoe Union belive he can medal

Some story

kanuheist

Dodge wrote: »

Jon caotes from the Daily Mail has said that the Irish Canoe Union belive he can medal

Some story

There is no real way of telling that at moment TBH

I assume hes racing in the World cup there this weekend so that will be a good indicator of standard against the athletes already qualified.

He probably had one of the worst starts in that race and stormed through so it looks good for sure

K_1

kanuheist wrote: »

There is no real way of telling that at moment TBH

I assume hes racing in the World cup there this weekend so that will be a good indicator of standard against the athletes already qualified.

He probably had one of the worst starts in that race and stormed through so it looks good for sure

His start was awful all right,90% of the time you have a bad start in a 200m race and thats it, race over, couldn't believe he came back from that!

He is entered to race in the World Cup this weekend, racing starts tomorrow, but C1 not til Saturday. Heats and semi finals for C1 saturday afternoon, Final on Sunday morning. Its marked as being TV broadcast, doesn't say where, but they're usually on eurosport.

Dan man

Yes it's on eurosport this weekend. Should be worth a watch.

fergal.b

I'm not sure if it belongs here "feel free to move" but I'll put my money on this guy

My son just got through to the next stage of the special olympics.

knockcon

Fantastic news fergal. Congratulations to the young man.

Cosmo Kramer

Great stuff from Taylor again this morning. Does a world championship final qualification guarantee her seeded status at the Olympics? Or will it be an open draw? She may only need to win one fight in London to medal and, while we'll all be hoping she can win it out, it would be great to be in that position going into London given how scarce Irish medals of any colour have been down the years.

Dodge

On the boxing forum, a journalist there said that in all boxing weights (male/female), the top 2 would be seeded

swim2

Chris Bryan just came 3rd in the European Cup in Israel, Open Water Swimming.
Next up is the Olympic qualifier on 10th of June in Portugal. He needs to finish in the top 10 to qualify for the Olympics

Dodge

swim2 wrote: »

Chris Bryan just came 3rd in the European Cup in Israel, Open Water Swimming.
Next up is the Olympic qualifier on 10th of June in Portugal. He needs to finish in the top 10 to qualify for the Olympics

Apparently its top 9 if GB don't qualify a swimmer.

K_1

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/0518/1224316281215.html

Apparently Jenny Egan is still in with a slim chance of qualification on a 'countback system'.

Dan man

K_1 wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/0518/1224316281215.html

Apparently Jenny Egan is still in with a slim chance of qualification on a 'countback system'.

Interesting, hope this proves fruitful. I've no idea how this countback system works but on the face of it all would she not have to very fortunate as there are many paddlers above her in the order? I wonder how they prioritise those on the reserve list? I would imagine it would go to the 3rd place finisher at the qualifying tournament, then the 4th and so on, unless there is a different procedure.
I'll have my fingers crossed for her anyway, at least there's still a chance so that's positive news.

Dan man

At the Canoe Sprint World Cup in Poznan, Ireland's newest Olympian Andrzej Jezierski just missed out on a place in the A final of the C1 200m. His performance bodes well for London 2012 and indicates that he is at least a potential finalist come the Olympics. In the A final in Poznan, there are only 7 nations represented (2 from Kazakhstan and Russia) and as the Olympic procedures make it that only have one boat per nation is permitted in each class, it looks positive for Jezierski's chances of doing well in London. In addition, the finalist from Brazil is not guaranteed to go to the Olympics as they have not secured an automatic quota place for the men's C1 200m further boosting Jezierski's ambitions.

K_1

Dan man wrote: »

At the Canoe Sprint World Cup in Poznan, Ireland's newest Olympian Andrzej Jezierski just missed out on a place in the A final of the C1 200m. His performance bodes well for London 2012 and indicates that he is at least a potential finalist come the Olympics. In the A final in Poznan, there are only 7 nations represented (2 from Kazakhstan and Russia) and as the Olympic procedures make it that only have one boat per nation is permitted in each class, it looks positive for Jezierski's chances of doing well in London. In addition, the finalist from Brazil is not guaranteed to go to the Olympics as they have not secured an automatic quota place for the men's C1 200m further boosting Jezierski's ambitions.

Also, he won't go into the olympics having done 3 races more in the previous few days than most of the other people!

K_1

100m Sprint, Jason Smyth did 10.24 (+1.5) in Orlando, Olympic B standard and European A standard.

Dan man

K_1 wrote: »

Also, he won't go into the olympics having done 3 races more in the previous few days than most of the other people!

Exactly, very encouraging performance by Jezierski. This guy is a real talent.

Pherekydes

K_1 wrote: »

100m Sprint, Jason Smyth did 10.24 (+1.5) in Orlando, Olympic B standard and European A standard.

Intrinsically, this is probably his fastest run. His PB (last year, at the same meet, on the same track) was 10.22 (+2.0). It is easily his fastest start to a season. He could go close to 10.10, conditions permitting, quite soon, which would mean he'd qualify for the Olympics while he's a paralympic athlete.

Dan man

Pherekydes wrote: »

Intrinsically, this is probably his fastest run. His PB (last year, at the same meet, on the same track) was 10.22 (+2.0). It is easily his fastest start to a season. He could go close to 10.10, conditions permitting quite soon, which would mean he'd qualify for the Olympics while he's a paralympic athlete.

If he runs at the Euros in Helsinki he could do quite well. Agree that 10.10 territory is within him, great early season form. He had indicated in twitter that he was in tip-top shape and his performance didn't make a liar of him. Irish record should be his soon.

knockcon

A few months ago people gave their views ( Dan and dodge I think) of our top ten medal hopes in order of probability. Since then we've had some movement I'm sure. Ward now less likely. KT more likely. Sailors looking stronger, irvine impressing in the cycling, showjumpers and equestrian achieving qualification. What are your new top tens at the moment?? Jezierski in the mix??

Dan man

knockcon wrote: »

A few months ago people gave their views ( Dan and dodge I think) of our top ten medal hopes in order of probability. Since then we've had some movement I'm sure. Ward now less likely. KT more likely. Sailors looking stronger, irvine impressing in the cycling, showjumpers and equestrian achieving qualification. What are your new top tens at the moment?? Jezierski in the mix??

Ok, here's my thoughts on our top 10 biggest chances (I've no problem if others disagree, just my penny's worth):

1. Katie Taylor (Women's Lightweight Boxing) There is little doubt that Katie is heading to London with the weight of a nation on her shoulders and she is by far our best shot of a medal and best bet for gold also. Now just to re-iterate (for what seems like the hundredth time), Katie is not a shoe-in. The betting odds on her claiming gold in London were cut further today on the back of winning a 4th consecutive World Championships title but if that final today proved anything it was that the gap between her and some of her biggest rivals is not as big as some imagine. The first 2 rounds were tied and only in the third did Taylor etch out a 2 point lead before doubling that advantage in the final round. Nevertheless, Taylor only has to win one match to claim an Olympic medal (although that will not be straight-forward either) and even though the final was close today, Katie's class still stands out amongst her opponents.
2. Michael Conlan (Men's Flyweight Boxing) This choice is purely a personal choice of mine as I have such a strong feeling that he will do really well in London. The reasons leading me to rating his chances so highly are as follows: in the 2011 World Championships in Baku he reached the quarter-finals at that tournament, clinching Olympic qualification by defeating the World silver medallist from France. He then went on to lose on the narrowest of margins (25-24) against Andrew Selby, the current European champion from G.B. who himself only lost the final against the Russian by a single point. All this and Conlan was only 19, a mighty performance from the young lad. But this year already indicates that he will go well, he reached the semis of the prestigious Chemistry Cup, only losing on countback to the Olympic silver medallist and 2009 world champion from Mongolia. This shows that he is thereabouts to the best in the world and I think he will be one to watch.
3. John Joe Nevin (Men's Bantamweight Boxing) John Joe is a real medal hope for London and he could actually go the whole way. His 2 world bronze medals are testament to his potential for a big performance this summer and at last years Worlds in Baku, he agonisingly lost the semi-final on countback to Luke Campbell (G.B.) after the scores were tied so that shows he is one of the best in his division. Nevin though has beaten some very good boxers on his day but the worry is that Nevin sometimes underperforms. I'm still tipping him to get very close to the medals in London.
4. Peter O'Leary and David Burrows (Men's Keelboat Star Sailing) Just over a week ago this duo were very unfortunate to slip out of the medal positions in the last race at the World Championships. They are consistently amongst the top 10 in their class and often they are competing for top 3 placings overall. Really big medal contenders when you take into account the factor of an Olympic regatta on familiar waters, Weymouth, where Peter has tasted major success just last year. There are only 16 boats in their class for the Olympics so that improves their chances of placing well from the outset. A good start and they could bring home a medal, any colour is possible with these guys.
5. Adam Nolan (Men's Welterweight Boxing) Adam's brief stint thus far on the international scene has seen him perform very impressively, most recently winning the pressure-filled Olympic qualifying tournament in Turkey. With a kind draw he could do well and his late qualification is reminiscent of the path that some of our boxers took in the last Olympics before going on to picking up medals. He is technically very good and very tough to breach his defence. I give him a good chance of going far but needs to avoid the top ranked guys in the early rounds. Yet who's to say he can't upset them if he does encounter them and he could progress far at the Olympics. I have to admit I'm jumping on a bandwagon of sorts with Nolan as have been hearing comments from the likes of Billy Walsh and Peter Taylor and pundits of the sport that this guy has the qualities to do very well in London.
6. Paddy Barnes (Men's Light-Flyweight Boxing) Paddy will go to London as one of our top chances of getting on the podium but he is not as hotly tipped for a podium finish as he was say this time a year or two ago. He won the European and the Commonwealth title in 2010 and looked like he could really be our leading hope outside Taylor for an Olympic medal. Since then he has not been near his best, losing in the early stages of both the Worlds in 2011 to an unfancied opponent and lost his way a little. He came through a very close contest for that Olympic qualifying berth at the Final Qualifier in Turkey this spring, coming from behind to stake his place in London. Despite those setbacks he is there in London and will have to be thought to be in with a big chance of going far. He needs to get back to the form of a couple of years ago though because his performances at the Qualifying Tournament in Turkey won't cut it in London. The potential is undoubtedly there with Paddy, he just needs to re-discover his winning mentality.
7. Robert Heffernan (Men's 50km Walk) It's really hard to analyse Rob's chances for success in London. He has only raced a couple of 50km races before but it was his performance at the European Championships in 2010 that sparked real hope for his medal ambitions. He finished 4th in the 20km walk at those championships and 4 days later he competed in his first ever major 50km race, where he finished 4th. He finished faster than anyone else in that race, due to the fact that he was unsure of how to pace the race (given his lack of experience over that distance) and came very close to claiming a medal. Since then he has trained more specifically with the Olympic 50km walk race in mind and has been commenting recently that he is very pleased with how his preparations are going. He has a chance and a decent one at that.
8. Annalise Murphy (Women's One-Person Dinghy Laser Radial Sailing) It's hard not to get frustrated when following Annalsie Murphy's road to the Olympics. She is a real tough competitor and in strong wind conditions she is very hard to beat. In fact she consistently performs better than any other sailor in her class in windy coniditions. However the word consistency is one I use losely when mentioning Annalise as she shoots herself in the foot in practically every major competition by having a couple of what can only be described as disastrous races, thus undoing all her good work in the rest of the competition. If she can get it right then I think she will be up there fighting for a medal. The worrying thing though is that she hasn't got it right yet when it matters, really hope she can buck the trend in Weymouth for the Olympics as I'm a big big fan of Annalise.
9. Martyn Irvine (Men's Omnium Track Cycling) Martyn is getting better and better in this event which is essentially like the decathlon (but with 6 events) of the track cycling programme. His 7th place finish at the very competitive World Championships in Melbourne where final Olympic qualifying places were up for grabs was really impressive. He is strong in all events except for the Elimination Race so if he can get that sorted out without impacting on his other events then he won't be too far behind the leaders. Plus in this event, any of the leading men could have a bad race so you never know. A medal unlikely but Martyn will probably end up as one of Ireland's best finishers in London 2012.
10. Darren O'Neill (Men's Middleweight Boxing) Darren is in with an outside chance of getting into the medals. He will need a kind draw but there is hope for Darren to do well. He's probably amongst the top 10 boxers in his weight class but probably not in the top 3/4. So depending on the draw, he can get close to the medals. He also has that silver medal from the European Championships in 2010 to underline his talent.

Now if we get the news we are all hoping for and Joe Ward ends up on the plane to London then I would put him up there right behind Katie Taylor in the list. His potential is astonishing and he can beat/ has beaten the best in the World in the light-heavyweight division. Fingers crossed for him as his presence in London immediately improves our medal chances.
Andrzej Jezierski at the moment is probably 11th in my list mainly due to me not knowing very much about this paddler. If this weekend's results are anything to go by then he has a chance of reaching the final (top 9) and in a few weeks when I have more info to go on, then he could well go right into my top 10.
I've also left the showjumpers out as I just can't predict their chances given the unpredictable nature of the sport and also because we don't yet know who will be representing us come London. Olive Loughnane in the 20km walk is starting to look exciting again. 8th place at the World Cup in Saransk last week in tough conditions has given us hope that she may yet get back to somewhere near her best. She finished very quickly in that race which is a trait of Olive's racing when she is at her best. Her times are still way off her best but her preparation is going well and she still has time to make that required improvement.

So that's my picks, would be interesting to hear others' choices as I'm sure they wouldn't entirley mirror my list. There's an argument to be made for a lot of our Olympians, Aileen Morrison springs to mind. Should be an exciting summer!

knockcon

Comprehensive as usual! Mostly agreed on the 10 but maybe not on the order. I think I'd have paddy barnes in second. He's our most tried and tested male at this level, and despite already having an Olympic medal, he gives the sense that there's some unfinished business. You have him sixth so If we have 5 better medal hopes than him, we are in very good shape. Otherwise, i feel that once the showjumpers are finalized they must feature in the ten. Finally kieran began as an outsider ahead of Darren o'neill?

Dan man

knockcon wrote: »

Comprehensive as usual! Mostly agreed on the 10 but maybe not on the order. I think I'd have paddy barnes in second. He's our most tried and tested male at this level, and despite already having an Olympic medal, he gives the sense that there's some unfinished business. You have him sixth so If we have 5 better medal hopes than him, we are in very good shape. Otherwise, i feel that once the showjumpers are finalized they must feature in the ten. Finally kieran began as an outsider ahead of Darren o'neill?

Yes I hear a lot of talk about Kieran Behan being an outside bet for a medal. I'm not sure of his chances but I know he is increasing his chances by adding more difficult moves to his floor routine, thus upping his scoring potential.

Dodge

really can't see any basis for Kieran to medal. Hope I'm wrong

I'll group them rather than ranking them

excellent chance
katie Taylor. Boxing

fair to good chance
JJ Nevin Boxing
Darren O'Neill - Boxing
Burrows/O'Leary - Sailing
Annalise Murphy - Sailing
either of the showjumpers

some chance
Rob Heffernan - Athletics (50k)
Olive Loughnane - Athletics
Michael Conlon - boxing
Paddy Barnes - boxing
Adam Nolan - Boxing
Andrzej Jezierski - canoeing

outside chance
Roche/martin - Cycling road race (if break falls for them. Martin is genuinely World class)
Eoin Rhenisch - Canoeing (4th in Beijing, he'd be top 8 in euros if 1 boat rule applied)
Seaton/McGovern - sailing (should be top 10 but strong event)
Grainne Murphy - swimming (800m free) (who knows if she's developed this year)
Derek burnett - Shooting (based on history maybe but hasn't had top results ina while)
martyn Irvine - Cycling omnium. Win the points race and who knows?
Derval O'Rourke - Athletics (exceptional tournament runner)

Dan man

That's cheating, you listed at least 20 there.
But that's a fair account of our athletes' chances. Way more optimism than pre-Beijing. Do you not give Aileen Morrison at least an outside chance? I think it's unlikely she'll medal but it's not beyond her to do really well in London.

james1992

Great work dan the man...
love reading all the posts.

I would really give Derval O'Rourke a chance of medaling.
it's definitely not beyond her.
she got injured last year in the heats and couldnt run Semi.
She said herself last year that she was in great shape and if that continues this year with no injuries ahe has a chance.
Sally Pearson is a gold medalist unless she gets injuried or falls.
after that its up for graps. Olympics brings its own pressures.
interesting to see the 3 Americans that get through hteir trials. they will be the major competition along with Tiffany porter and Lopes Schliep, Foster Hlyton, vukeicicic and nytra.

If you look back at all the past 10 years 100m hurdles semi finals and finals, anything can happen.... If Derval can reproduce 12.65 her NR SHE WILL BE TOP 6 i'd say....... and yes i wouldnt be putting my house on her but i can see her being one of Irelands best finishers in London across all sports.

Dodge

Dan man wrote: »

That's cheating, you listed at least 20 there.
But that's a fair account of our athletes' chances. Way more optimism than pre-Beijing. Do you not give Aileen Morrison at least an outside chance? I think it's unlikely she'll medal but it's not beyond her to do really well in London.

It's just hard to see more than the 10-15 elite triathletes having poor days allowing Aileen to medal. She could reach top 10 and that's still an exceptional result but can't see a medal

Dan man

james1992 wrote: »

Great work dan the man...
love reading all the posts.

I would really give Derval O'Rourke a chance of medaling.
it's definitely not beyond her.
she got injured last year in the heats and couldnt run Semi.
She said herself last year that she was in great shape and if that continues this year with no injuries ahe has a chance.
Sally Pearson is a gold medalist unless she gets injuried or falls.
after that its up for graps. Olympics brings its own pressures.
interesting to see the 3 Americans that get through hteir trials. they will be the major competition along with Tiffany porter and Lopes Schliep, Foster Hlyton, vukeicicic and nytra.

If you look back at all the past 10 years 100m hurdles semi finals and finals, anything can happen.... If Derval can reproduce 12.65 her NR SHE WILL BE TOP 6 i'd say....... and yes i wouldnt be putting my house on her but i can see her being one of Irelands best finishers in London across all sports.

I've no problem at all with anyone arguing that Derval is a top medal hope, she has surprised us on so many occasions and knows better than practically anyone how to pull it out of the bag on the big occasions. I'm a massive fan of Derval. I don't think we will see the likes of her (in terms of performing out of her skin in every major final) in the Irish vest for a long time. For me her 4th place in Berlin 2009 World Championships is not appreciated as much as it should. Plus her 2 European silvers and World indoor gold prove how much of a major competitor she is.
I didn't include her in the 10 on my list as I think those mentioned have a better chance of making the podium. But by no means would I ever discount Derval, she has produced the goods in every final she's been in and if she gets to that stage in London then she could do it again.

Dodge

http://www.sportresult.com/federations/FISA/download/Final_Olympic_Qualification_Regatta_2012,_Lucerne_SS_2012.05.20.cp.pdf

2 Irish boats seek qualification in Rowing.

Dan man

At the Olympic Rowing Final Qualification regatta in Lucerne, Switzerland Ireland's Sanita Puspure has made a good start in the women's single sculls, advancing directly to Tuesday's semi-finals. She finished 2nd in her heat meaning she avoids the repechages. In order to qualify for London 2012 she needs to reach the A final (finish in the top 3 in the semis) and then finish amongst the top 4 in the final.
Ireland's other boat aiming for Olympic qualification advanced from the heats today. Niall Kenny and Mark O'Donovan finished 3rd in their lightwieght double sculls heat and go in Tuesday's semi-finals where they will need a top 3 placing to make it into the Olympic qualifying A final decider. There are only 2 quota places up for grabs in the men's lightweight double sculls so they are really up against it to make the Olympic team.

feargale

fergal.b wrote: »

I'm not sure if it belongs here "feel free to move" but I'll put my money on this guy

My son just got through to the next stage of the special olympics. Well done to your son, Fergal B, wishing him further success. Clearly there is great credit due to both of you.