Grand National - Aintree 2011

Nulty

Weights are out tomorrow and hopefully we avoid the anger shown by Mouse Morris last year when WOT was weighted on his Gold Cup win (if you asked Morris I'm sure thats what he'd say!)

Don't Push It (164) will get top weight on the day because Tidal Bay and Neptune won't turn up. Neptune is supposed to be going for the Punchestown (Powers?) Gold Cup.

I like a few but will obviously wait until tomorrow afternoon before moving on them. Bet365 are already going 5 Places Ante Post.

Johner

From Twitter,

Top 5 Weights Don’t Push It 11-10 Neptune Collonges 11-10 Tidal Bay 11-09 Midnight Chase 11-08 Deep Purple 11-07
Next 5 Weights: Tranquil Sea 11-07 Synchronised 11-06 Vic Venturi 11-06 What A Friend 11-06 Majestic Concorde 11-05

Johner

Edit - Nultys table is better.

Nulty

Johner wrote: »

Age first then weights.

WEIGHTS FOR THE JOHN SMITH'S GRAND NATIONAL

**Gap denotes the top 40

DON'T PUSH IT (IRE) 11-11-10 |NEPTUNE COLLONGES (FR) 10-11-10
TIDAL BAY (IRE) 10-11-09| MIDNIGHT CHASE 9-11-08
DEEP PURPLE 10-11-07| TRANQUIL SEA (IRE) 9-11-07
SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 8-11-06| VIC VENTURI (IRE) 11-11-06
WHAT A FRIEND 8-11-06.| MAJESTIC CONCORDE (IRE) 8-11-05
OR NOIR DE SOMOZA (FR) 9-11-05| DOONEYS GATE (IRE) 10-11-04
LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 9-11-03| SCOTSIRISH (IRE) 10-11-02
BIG FELLA THANKS 9-11-01| BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 10-11-00
TARANIS (FR) 10-11-00| TATENEN (FR) 7-11-00
THE TOTHER ONE (IRE) 10-11-00.| NICHE MARKET (IRE) 10-10-13
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 10-10-13| BACKSTAGE (FR) 9-10-12
CHIEF DAN GEORGE (IRE) 11-10-12| SILVER BY NATURE 9-10-12
FAIR ALONG (GER) 9-10-11| I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES (IRE) 9-10-11
NOTRE PERE (FR) 10-10-11| CALGARY BAY (IRE) 8-10-10
KILLYGLEN (IRE) 9-10-10| TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 8-10-10
JUST AMAZING (IRE) 8-10-09| OSCAR TIME (IRE) 10-10-09
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 11-10-09| BALLYTRIM (IRE) 10-10-08
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 8-10-08| COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 12-10-08
NEDZER'S RETURN (IRE) 9-10-08| NORTHERN ALLIANCE (IRE) 10-10-08
QUINZ (FR) 7-10-08| QUOLIBET (FR) 7-10-08
|
FROM DAWN TO DUSK 12-10-07| GRAND SLAM HERO (IRE) 10-10-07
ROLL ALONG (IRE) 11-10-07.| APT APPROACH (IRE) 8-10-06
GULLIBLE GORDON (IRE) 8-10-06| KING FONTAINE (IRE) 8-10-06
STATE OF PLAY 11-10-06| DREAM ALLIANCE 10-10-05
HELLO BUD (IRE) 13-10-05| IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 11-10-05
QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 7-10-05| SANTA'S SON (IRE) 11-10-05
WEST END ROCKER (IRE) 9-10-05| BLUESEA CRACKER (IRE) 9-10-04
CAN'T BUY TIME (IRE) 9-10-04| CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 11-10-04
ORNAIS (FR) 9-10-04| PIRAYA (FR) 8-10-04
SURFACE TO AIR 10-10-04| THAT'S RHYTHM (FR) 11-10-04
ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 9-10-03| FRANKIE FIGG (IRE) 9-10-03
MOBAASHER (USA) 8-10-03| NICTO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 10-10-03
ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 10-10-03| OUR MONTY (IRE) 8-10-03
ROYAL ROSA (FR) 12-10-03| ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 10-10-02
GOLDEN KITE (IRE) 9-10-02| MEANUS DANDY (IRE) 8-10-02
SKIPPERS BRIG (IRE) 10-10-02| BELON GALE (IRE) 8-10-01
FAASEL (IRE) 10-10-01| LE BEAU BAI (FR) 8-10-01
MERIGO (FR) 10-10-01| PUTNEY BRIDGE 9-10-01
QUEZAC DE LA ROQUE (FR) 7-10-01| ASKTHEMASTER (IRE) 11-10-00
DEV (IRE) 11-10-00| GILES CROSS (IRE) 9-10-00
SADDLERS STORM (IRE) 9-10-00| STARZAAN (IRE) 12-10-00.
AMBOBO (USA) 11-9-13| DUERS (IRE) 9-9-13
SAGALYRIQUE (FR) 7-9-13| TOBY JUG 10-9-13
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 12-9-12| GALANT NUIT (FR) 7-9-12
JUNIOR 8-9-12| THE SAWYER (BEL) 11-9-12
KHACHATURIAN (IRE) 8-9-10| BALLYFITZ 11-9-09
I'MONCLOUDNINE (IRE) 8-9-09| POMME TIEPY (FR) 8-9-09
BURREN LEGEND (IRE) 10-9-08| CARRONHILLS (IRE) 9-9-08
THE SLIOTAR (IRE) 10-9-08| TINAKELLYLAD (IRE) 7-9-07.
NOBLE CONCORDE 9-9-04| TREACLE (IRE) 10-9-04
REGAL HEIGHTS (IRE) 10-9-02.|

Will you edit your post Jonner and put this table in? Gonna have to look at the weights everytime and it'd be best if they were clearer

Johner

Cheers. I just copied it from the Guardian.

Have to say I really like Ballabriggs at those weights.

pingedthelast

Bluesea Cracker and State Of Play for me.
Bluesea will need a bit of cut though

ryant1981

You are so wise Pingedthelast, I would concur with you on Bluesea if there was any bit of soft in the description of the going

Nulty

7 of the last 10 have been Good

kfallon

Ballabriggs
Becauseicouldntsee
Calgary Bay

My 3 at the mo!
However I've backed the winner in '04, '06, '08 & 10 with not even a sniff of a place inbetween so prob best to eliminate the 3 above from your thoughts as it's an 'odd' year

HigginsJ

Tidal Bay would be my 1st choice.

Taranis and Calgary Bay would be the other 2 of interest.

premierstone

HigginsJ wrote: »

Tidal Bay would be my 1st choice.

Non Runners have a very bad record in the National

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

Non Runners have a very bad record in the National

The chances of Tidal Bay getting safely over every fence in the national are about the same as my chances of jumping them

HigginsJ

Is he declared a non-runner?

HigginsJ

RichieLawlor wrote: »

The chances of Tidal Bay getting safely over every fence in the national are about the same as my chances of jumping them

You pay your money you take your chance. Not often you see an Arkle winner in the National. Considering he has never fell in a race i'd be happy to have him.

Lapin

The money is on Ballabriggs (25s into 14s with Powers) and I'm tempted.
McCain is happy with the weights.

I'm also tempted to have a little e/w shilling on Majestic Concorde at 33/1.

Colonel Sanders

premierstone wrote: »

Non Runners have a very bad record in the National

Howard Johnson (Tidal Bay 11st 9lb, Santa's Son 10st 5lb, Royal Rosa, Frankie Figg 10st 3lb, Belon Gale 10st 1lb): "The main aim for Tidal Bay is the Gold Cup so we'll see.

"I have schooled him over National fences before and he jumps them like a buck. There's nearly a month between them and he's 10 now but we'll see. He wants a marathon trip these days, which is strange for an Arkle winner.

"If he ran, we'd know our fate early. He'll either take to it or tail himself off.

"Santa's Son should get in and at this stage he'd be my main hope. He's won a Castleford Chase so he's got a bit of class and he came out of his win at Musselburgh in very good shape. He'll stay.

"The others might struggle to get in but we know Frankie Figg loves it there.''

.

Nulty

Potential Drop-outs in te top 40, I might have missed some.

NEPTUNE COLLONGES (FR) 10-11-10 (Target?)
TIDAL BAY (IRE) 10-11-09 (Target?)
MIDNIGHT CHASE 9-11-08 (Target?)
TRANQUIL SEA (IRE) 9-11-07 (Target?)
SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 8-11-06 (Ground?)
WHAT A FRIEND 8-11-06. (Target?)
TATENEN (FR) 7-11-00 (Target/Ground)
I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES (IRE) 9-10-11 (Won't stay)
NOTRE PERE (FR) 10-10-11 (Ground?)

mr.jingle

It'll be interesting to see who McCoy rides this year. Synchronised looked like a potential Grand National horse when winning the Welsh National quite easily in the end and was still going strong at the end. Don't Push It despite top weight won last year and he jumped the Aintree course very well for his first try over them and despite the extra 5lb think he'll still run a cracker even if history is against him. It'll be tough for McCoy but think both will be placed if getting around.

NewApproach

The Midnight Club has a lot in his favour

abouttobebanned

As does state of play.

RichieLawlor

mr.jingle wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see who McCoy rides this year. Synchronised looked like a potential Grand National horse when winning the Welsh National quite easily in the end and was still going strong at the end. Don't Push It despite top weight won last year and he jumped the Aintree course very well for his first try over them and despite the extra 5lb think he'll still run a cracker even if history is against him. It'll be tough for McCoy but think both will be placed if getting around.

McCoy will ride Don't Push It absolutely certainly definitely and without doubt

(unless he is a non runner)

finbarrk

I think last years winner is the stand out bet at 20/1. He has only gone up 5lbs and won comfortably last year. He will be a single figure price on the day.

PeterKelly!

Pricewise make a good case for backstage, will be having a few quid on that.

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

And what's going to bed without a little ante post bet :cool:

Backstage 2011 Grand National 40/1
Stake:25 each way
Profit:222.94

Reasoning for this and Noble Prince to come in the next few days or weeks.
One of these ante post bets better win :pac:

PeterKelly! wrote: »

Pricewise make a good case for backstage, will be having a few quid on that.

Liking the look of that,20/1 best price now.

finbarrk

Has Pricewise any other ones tipped up?

Big Daddy Cool

i backed backstage for last years race and backed him at 40's for this year's race, was running a blinder when brought down, easily could've got involved in the finish, preparations seems to have gone smoothly for him this year, so i'm fairly optimistic he'll be very close if he avoids trouble. Merigo would be another horse i'd give a chance to.

hucklebuck

UrbanSea wrote: »

Originally Posted by UrbanSea
And what's going to bed without a little ante post bet

Backstage 2011 Grand National 40/1
Stake:25 each way
Profit:222.94

Reasoning for this and Noble Prince to come in the next few days or weeks.
One of these ante post bets better win

I think you calculator is doing ya buddy, I make it €1,250.:P

hucklebuck

If Junior gets 9-12 that is where I will be putting my money @ 16/1

Johner

hucklebuck wrote: »

If Junior gets 9-12 that is where I will be putting my money @ 16/1

Not a chance he will get in though.

Will be around 10-4.

Nulty

hucklebuck wrote: »

I think you calculator is doing ya buddy, I make it €1,250.:P

Thats his betting logs current profit rather than expected return from that bet.

jossnjuice

made my first move into the market this morning....

backed Character Building,33-1, w/Nina on board, and expecting to get 5lbs lower than last year after running seventh, but a distant seventh, and has been trained for this in mind,

and Ballyfitz, great form, 66/1, has to get a few drop outs, but has consistently been finishing in the top four in national trials for the past couple of months.

finbarrk

hucklebuck wrote: »

If Junior gets 9-12 that is where I will be putting my money @ 16/1

Junior won't get in.

Nulty

jossnjuice wrote: »

made my first move into the market this morning....

backed Character Building,33-1, w/Nina on board, and expecting to get 5lbs lower than last year after running seventh, but a distant seventh, and has been trained for this in mind,

and Ballyfitz, great form, 66/1, has to get a few drop outs, but has consistently been finishing in the top four in national trials for the past couple of months.

I hope you went with a NRNB bookie for Ballyfitz....

supremenovice

I think its Paul Nicholls turn to win. What a Friend is the best horse in the race based on his great Gold Cup run.
Character Building is 5lbs less this year, as previously stated, so Id go each way on him.

Juwwi

Bluesea Cracker is going to be running in JP's colours according to todays papers.

I was at Fairyhouse when she won the national and one of the syndicate members come running by me with his kids heading for the winners enclosure directly after the race telling one of the kids this is the best day of my life.
I was laughing thinking to myself thinking l taught the birth of your kid ismeat to the best day of your life.

l wonder how much JP paid for the horse.

finbarrk

Suppose over €100k anyway. It's a long time since a mare won the national though.

Deplasterer

Backing one horse, ticks all the boxes, 9yo, under 11stone, ran well in the topham 2009, unlucky some might say in race last year and trained by a shrewdie:

BACKSTAGE (FR) 9-10-12 G Elliot 14-1

Stapo73

What does Geraghty ride??

finbarrk

Northern Alliance for Tony Martin. Around 40/1.

Stapo73

Cheers Finbar

barney4001

Another benefit day for the bookies,watch how the odds tighten up coming to racetime

finbarrk

barney4001 wrote: »

Another benefit day for the bookies,watch how the odds tighten up coming to racetime

So? Whats your point? Maybe this thread doesn't need to go down the negative road.

kfallon

Arbor Supreme is twice the price of The Midnight Club despite being beaten just a length in the Bobbyjo Chase off level weights. Arbor gets 10lbs from The Midnight Club on Saturday. Other two of interest to me are Becauseicouldntsee and Ballabriggs.

I will have to have a small bet on Don't Push It out of sentimentality!

finbarrk

I have a good EW bet on Don't Push It at 20/1. He should get in to the first 4 if he stays up. Also a small bit on Becauseicouldntsee at fancy prices!

Nulty

finbarrk wrote: »

I have a good EW bet on Don't Push It at 20/1. He should get in to the first 4 if he stays up. Also a small bit on Becauseicouldntsee at fancy prices!

Just going through the card now and Becauseicouldntsee is high on my shortlist. What price did you take about him? Hes short enough now...gotta watch some of his jumping but there could still be value at 20s.

barney4001

finbarrk wrote: »

So? Whats your point? Maybe this thread doesn't need to go down the negative road.

The point is if you have a bet have it now,not on national day as the odds will surely shorten

Nulty

Surface to Air off for nearly 3 years since winning the Summer National as a 7yo and was hugely progressive until then. Made a hurdling reappearance at Market Rasen in March and Tom Messenger was easy on him for obvious reasons. Travelled well but weakened and not asked for anything except to plug on to raise fitness. Its impossible to say (and rather unlikely) that he's back to his best. You know what they say "They never come back". However, it wasn't just one injury that kept him out. He's had numerous setbacks and it looks like they've had a clear run with him for at least 10 months having planned this path. Chris Bealby has a very good record of winning with chasers who have 0 or 1 race in the last 12 months (1 run = 3 wins from 5 [+36 LSP], 0 runs = 3/16 [+32 LSP]) and this horse has been given a chance by the handicapper dropped 7lbs from the mark he got when winning the Summer National.


66/1 NRNB, is it that insane to think he can run a decent race?

Nulty

barney4001 wrote: »

The point is if you have a bet have it now,not on national day as the odds will surely shorten

Lots of once-a-year punters will log onto this forum in the next few days and that point is worth labouring in this case. The prices are atrocious on opening show.

Ian Whelan

Is my memory correct? Did some bookies pay each way 1-2-3-4-5-6 last year? The best I can see at the moment is 1-2-3-4-5. does anyone think that policy might be altered in respect of bets placed on the day?

Arbour Supreme is my tip by the way. Would have beaten The Midnight Club in the Bobbyjo if the race was over 200 yards further.

Nulty

Ian Whelan wrote: »

Is my memory correct? Did some bookies pay each way 1-2-3-4-5-6 last year? The best I can see at the moment is 1-2-3-4-5. does anyone think that policy might be altered in respect of bets placed on the day?

Arbour Supreme is my tip by the way. Would have beaten The Midnight Club in the Bobbyjo if the race was over 200 yards further.

I don't think he would have. The Midnight Club was going away at the line.

minty16

8/1 on TMC is shocking to say the least.