Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2011

UrbanSea

Betting here.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/cheltenham-festival/supreme-novices-hurdle

I didn't see Spirit Son's win today but it was meant to be very very impressive. Who do ye fancy for it? It'll be hard to beat Cue Card if near his best.Zaidpour could still improve and 14/1 could be a nice each way bet I think.

RichieLawlor

UrbanSea wrote: »

Betting here.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/cheltenham-festival/supreme-novices-hurdle

I didn't see Spirit Son's win today but it was meant to be very very impressive. Who do ye fancy for it? It'll be hard to beat Cue Card if near his best.Zaidpour could still improve and 14/1 could be a nice each way bet I think.

Menorah won the SN last year and got rated 151 ish for winning it. Dunguib went off Evens favorite despite a laconic course hurdles form.

Cue Card has lots of course form, ran a very good second in an Grade 2 in open company and is already rated 159.

The 11/4 is an absolute bank job. The way he travels you could get out for a free bet on the run to 2 out no danger.

I think he's a cracking price and will win.

Zaidpour needs further for sure.

longshotvalue

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Menorah won the SN last year and got rated 151 ish for winning it. Dunguib went off Evens favorite despite a laconic course hurdles form.

Cue Card has lots of course form, ran a very good second in an Grade 2 in open company and is already rated 159.

The 11/4 is an absolute bank job. The way he travels you could get out for a free bet on the run to 2 out no danger.

I think he's a cracking price and will win.

Zaidpour needs further for sure.

Cue card, will probably start about evens on the day, at best... looks a long way clear of anything. The Spirit Son that won today looked special, but the ground was an absolute bog and it would be hard to know if that could be translated to good-soft in a fast run Supreme. He does look second best at the moment..

HigginsJ

Cue Card is probably the most likely winner. But i'd just be worried that it will be nearly 4 months between his last run and the Supreme.

Big fan of Zaidpour but agrees he should really go for the 2m4f novice event.

i'd go for Al Ferof at 20/1. Doubt he can turn around form with Cue Card from the bumper but prob worth a shout ew at the prices. 2 good wins recently. Ignore the Challow and his form is excellent

supremenovice

Im on Megastar anti-post @ 30/1.
Probably more of a chaser but prefers good ground as he won the bumper on Grand National day last year and was 6th behind Cue Card in the Cheltenham bumper before that.
An each way punt for sure

minty16

I agree with Richie's analysis of getting out with a free bet very easily on Cue Card, but how many times do they just find one too good ? I'm considering having a decent bet on this during the week, but I'll almost definitely cover is with a few big priced runners.

RichieLawlor

If you plan on backing Cue Card then do it now, they will be confirming this week that he will be running in the Sup Nov and the 11/4 will become 2/1

minty16

RichieLawlor wrote: »

If you plan on backing Cue Card then do it now, they will be confirming this week that he will be running in the Sup Nov and the 11/4 will become 2/1

Great point. Do you reckon we're looking more like a Tuesday or a Friday?

minty16

Can anybody post a fresh oddschecker screenshot?

longshotvalue

5/2 is the best available now..

RichieLawlor

aidankkk wrote: »

5/2 is the best available now..

He will be 7/4 before the weekend or possibly shorter

pingedthelast

I have Dunraven Storm at 120s for this.
Cue Card should beat him on all known form but you just never know what will happen on the day

Colonel Sanders

Pricewise gone for Zaidpour at 16/1 & Al Ferof at 25/1

If Al Ferof was to run 25/1 could look very big

Hidden Universe could be interesting on good ground but disappointed last year in the bumper

Mostly agree with what Richie said about Cue Card

mdwexford

Cue Card is fast becoming one of my best bets of the meeting.

mr.jingle

mdwexford wrote: »

Cue Card is fast becoming one of my best bets of the meeting.

Definightly! He has the form in the bag that no other horse has in the race can come close to IMO. It'll be interesting to see if he doe's win and win well what'll happen to Menorah's price on the day for the CH. I've had my fingers burnt too many times with the Supreme Novices but this year could be the one to get me off to a good start!!!:eek: Think i'll be throwing a few quid on him for the next 4 paydays so come 15th of March i won't feel the burn too much! Magen's Star @ 50/1 is also jumping at me. It'll be tough to lead these from the front but the way he's won his first 2 starts could be worth a couple of euro leats ya know you'll be there or thereabouts for a while anyway!

abouttobebanned

I had to write an article on this race recently and I was left bemused at the total lack of any decent form, except that is, from Cue Card - and that form is miles and miles ahead of everything else in the race. Menorah and Cue card for me look like stand out bets at this year's festival, and I think they'll actually be my only bets. 2 singles and a double.

premierstone

mr.jingle wrote: »

Magen's Star @ 50/1 is also jumping at me. It'll be tough to lead these from the front but the way he's won his first 2 starts could be worth a couple of euro leats ya know you'll be there or thereabouts for a while anyway!

Back to lay imo, have been considering doing the same myself, but yes just to echo the last few posts Cue Card looks nailed on as long as it gets no bad luck in running should win comfortably enough

RichieLawlor

Cur Card confirmed for the Supreme Novice Hurdle

Price already shortening all over the shop

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Cur Card confirmed for the Supreme Novice Hurdle

Price already shortening all over the shop

Good stuff, thank you for brightening my day up Richie

Glad that common sense prevailed, it is the right route as in fairness it is no ordinary Champion Hurdle and he looks a good thing in the Supreme.

storykid

Anyone think Recession Proof cant cause Cue Card any trouble after todays win? i took him at 16s after the race, hard to see past Cue Card but it makes things more interesting at least

pingedthelast

storykid wrote: »

Anyone think Recession Proof cant cause Cue Card any trouble after todays win? i took him at 16s after the race, hard to see past Cue Card but it makes things more interesting at least

Dunraven Storm beat Recession Proof earlier in the season and is 33s

RichieLawlor

pingedthelast wrote: »

Dunraven Storm beat Recession Proof earlier in the season and is 33s

Cue Card beat DS out of sight already

UrbanSea

Minella Class just got beaten at Huntingdon,his price is going to go high.

Johner

Backspin, who was due to run at the Cheltenham Festival, has died after suffering a suspected heart attack in his box at Jonjo O`Neill`s stables.

The six-year-old had won his first three starts, including the Grade One Challow Hurdle at Newbury, before losing his unbeaten record when fourth to Bobs Worth on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham in January.

He held entries in the Stan James Supreme Novices' Hurdle and the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at the big meeting in two weeks` time.

"He died in his box last night. It`s one of those things," said Frank Berry, racing manager to owner JP McManus.

"It was possibly a heart attack but we`re waiting for the autopsy before we know for sure.

"He was a nice horse, but unfortunately these things happen."

UrbanSea

What a pity,could have been a very smart horse.

superfurry1

What do people think of Rock on Ruby for the Supreme odds look attractive anybody who thinks Cue Card is Nailed on is Crazy such a fast Race with so many unknown quantities,.............. Can't Wait Bring it On !:pac:

superfurry1

It looks like rock on ruby will go for the neptune, Another one that looks very interesting is Gibb River just watched the video of his last race and the time is very impressive:)

orourkeda

It looks like Cue Card all the way, however, is anyone scared after Dunguib last year. Backed him at 2\1 this morning.

Very small e\w on Al Ferof (no idea why.

Goldcupfav

Seen a special on today in powers! Cue Card was 11/4 but max stake 200 per customer.

UrbanSea

And the card is finally out Not all jockeys yet though.

http://www.irishracing.com/cards/v5card009201103151330.htm

Colonel Sanders

What price will the jolly start here?

I'm guessing a plunge similar to Likeabutterfly. Will be 9/4, possibly 5/2 in a place, in the morning and maybe on course. The punters will come for him and he'll start sub 2/1, around 7/4 but maybe shorter

mdwexford

Yeah agree.

Shane732

Are we still all very keen on Cue Card here?

What do people think of Spirit Son?

UrbanSea

Still like CC.
Not too many firms going 9/4. I think 13/8 or 6/4 will be SP.

Mr.Conners

Shane732 wrote: »

Are we still all very keen on Cue Card here?

What do people think of Spirit Son?

Cue Card travels amazingly, he wasn't spectacular when pushed hard last time but he looks good enough to win this. Menorah looked unstoppable when he showed that lovely turn of foot last time out and there was no shame in losing by 5 lengths.

From what I have seen of Spirit Son he is also a lovely stayer and seems full of running, hasn't been pressured yet to be driven hard but I would think he will be close to CC when they turn for home.

CC is definitely good enough to win this and will take serious beating, but I will have a bet on Spirit Son with PP for his price alone and the insurance of CC winning.

Edit: I will probably put both of them into different doubles or something, starting to over think and wrecking my head at this stage. The joys of Cheltenham.

TheMilkyPirate

Can't be having cue card with the record of favourites and champion bumper winners in this, Much too short at 2/1 as well. Looked a little slow against menorah LTO.

One i'm on is spirit son very impressive on his last two runs and with the possibility of improvement to come on better ground he was much better value when i backed him at 6's, 5's now.

superfurry1

Even though Geraghty didnt pick Sprinter Sacre i think it was a tough one that could come back to bite him. Since his decision the odds have drifted to 9-1 so i think i'll have a piece of that:)

Mr.Conners

superfurry1 wrote: »

Even though Geraghty didnt pick Sprinter Sacre i think it was a tough one that could come back to bite him. Since his decision the odds have drifted to 9-1 so i think i'll have a piece of that:)

The word from the camp was that Sprinter Sacre has more potential in the long run, but currently Spirit Son is flying and the better of the two. I was aware that Barry was leaning towards Sprinter Sacre but he was advised against it as Nicky felt Spirit Son has a better chance to win, which I think he does.

cson

Hidden Universe might be one at an each way price. Obviously he was decimated last year in the Bumper so he just might not get Cheltenham but imo there's enough there to suggest he's improving and finishing 4th in the Grade 1 lto isn't too much of a blot considering it was a pretty hot race.

I like Cue Card and I do think he'll win [which if he does advertises very well for Menorah] but Hidden Universe has a bit of value for a place.

RichieLawlor

baraca wrote: »

Can't be having cue card with the record of favourites and champion bumper winners in this, Much too short at 2/1 as well. Looked a little slow against menorah LTO.

One i'm on is spirit son very impressive on his last two runs and with the possibility of improvement to come on better ground he was much better value when i backed him at 6's, 5's now.

Spirit Son was really impressive in a swamp that day. I'd be very surprised if he is as effective on better ground.

Plentyofice

Cue card is a very worthy favorite and will almost certainly shrink in value as punters look for an opening banker. But what about Al ferof.?? Beaten last year in the bumper by Cue card by an easy 8 lengths but he was giving him 7lbs. I have him at 14's each way and if Ruby picks him over Willie's runners the his price will contract a few points. He's also a front runner which may be a big help as if you go back over the years the supreme tends to be a race with horses not getting the run of the race etc etc etc etc. He has to improve to beat cue card but 2/1 versus 14's ??Opinions please ?

HigginsJ

I agree with Al Ferof as well e/w. Least you know he will handle the Festival Atmosphere and the track. Not sure he will turn it around with cue card but at 7 times the price he's a shot. The likes of Sprinter Sacre, Spirit Son could be anything but you just dont know. If you dont back Cue Card then you should be looking for something at a double figure price.

Dont think its the strongest renewal at the moment. If you remove So Young, First Lieutenant, Sam Winner & Gibb River from he market then it is really weak in depth.

TheMilkyPirate

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Spirit Son was really impressive in a swamp that day. I'd be very surprised if he is as effective on better ground.

Not every horse in the world is ground dependant

Johner

15 left in.

Al Ferof
Cue Card
Dunraven Storm
Far Away So Close
Gibb River
Hidden Universe
Rathlin
Recession Proof
Sheer Genuis
Spanish Treasure
Spirit Son
Sprinter Sacre
Zaidpour
Magen's Star
Marsh Warbler

RichieLawlor

baraca wrote: »

Not every horse in the world is ground dependant

Most horses need certain conditions to show there best.

It's very very rare for a horse to be equally effective in a swamp (ground was very heavy that day) and on top of the ground

While I'm not doubting whether he will handle the ground I suspect he won't be as good on good ground.

Nulty

Mr.Conners wrote: »

The word from the camp was that Sprinter Sacre has more potential in the long run, but currently Spirit Son is flying and the better of the two. I was aware that Barry was leaning towards Sprinter Sacre but he was advised against it as Nicky felt Spirit Son has a better chance to win, which I think he does.

They've already named a race after him!? Maybe he will win the Gold Cup

Shane732

I can't decide whether this is one to get stuck into or to go with some value.

I think it's difficult to evalute his form. He's run in open company and that's why he has such a high rating. It's difficult to know how well the other would have done in similar circumstances.

At 2/1 he's plenty short.

I think I'd be better to hold off on this on and get stuck into Quevega instead.

Nulty

Supreme Novices

Rathlin 2pts ew @ 66/1 StanJames (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)

Really like this horse. He's done all his running on heavy ground but his best performances have come on decent ground. He could be under rated due to his form on the ground in Ireland. He ran very close to Bobby Ewing in a 2 1/2 mile PTP on GF ground. Bobby Ewing is a 147 rated hurdler who beat Menorah but hasn't been seen in quite a while. He looks a good horse. Rathlin must be better than the market suggests.

Philip Rothwell hasn't got a great record at Cheltenham (0/16 Last 5 years) but this horse looks better than many he sent over. He reportedly scoped badly after his Clonmel race when Rothwells horses were all sick. He comes into this off a good win at Gowran and the ground will be just right for him.

Price too big to ignore.

mailburner

hope punters get rightly stuck into cue card as i'd be over
the moon if i could lay him at around 6/4

mdwexford

HigginsJ wrote: »

I agree with Al Ferof as well e/w. Least you know he will handle the Festival Atmosphere and the track. Not sure he will turn it around with cue card but at 7 times the price he's a shot. The likes of Sprinter Sacre, Spirit Son could be anything but you just dont know. If you dont back Cue Card then you should be looking for something at a double figure price.

Dont think its the strongest renewal at the moment. If you remove So Young, First Lieutenant, Sam Winner & Gibb River from he market then it is really weak in depth.

It never looks strong strength in depth wise the week before the race. Its all unexposed could be anything novice hurdlers.

Al Ferof has done nothing over hurdles really.
He does kind of have the same profile as Noland but i cant see him winning.

The top two in the market look the ones to focus on for me.

supremenovice

The Moores pulled Megastar. There goes my first ante-post of the week. Is he going in the Neptune?