Heads Up - Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP.L)

Smcgie

As some may know I have a substantial holding in this company so you could take this as a biased view, but it isn't.

On Saturday Prime Minister of Iraq has agreed to recognize the Production Sharing Contracts of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, where GKP hold all of their four Oil/Gas Blocks with an already estimated 4.3Billion Barrels of Oil.
This is sensational news as Goldman Sachs have stated that political deadlock has held GKP's share price down about 50%. They are currently trading at around 170p-175p (down from 200p High)

Worth a Serious Look. There is a new corporate video that was released last week, as well as a second resource report this time provided by Ryder Scott. -Dont miss out!

News Link: http://www.afp.com/afpcom/en/taglibrary/know-how/text
Video: http://62.193.238.61/blueprinttv/gulf-keystone-petroleum/2011-01-14_video_01.php
Website: www.gulfkeystone.com

The Pontiac

I don't hold GKP, but agree with you.

It was trading circa £1.30 on the first few hours of trading on 29th Dec, after an RNS was released with news of some company claiming 30% ownership of GKP's blocks in Kurdistan. I would have bought then, if I wasn't in bed with a hangover. :rolleyes:

A good stock to be holding and the best of luck with it.

colsku

I see morals go out the window when people look for a quick buck.

Illegal War in Iraq!

Smcgie

colsku wrote: »

I see morals go out the window when people look for a quick buck.

Illegal War in Iraq!

Did you watch the video? - where they have built up local infrastructure, employed all local people. The Oil belongs to the people of Kurdistan no one else . Gulf Keystones profit comes from finding this Oil and selling it to the local market were the government take a 40% Tax.

Find out what the Irish Government get in Oil/Gas Tax revenues then come back to me about illegal activities and morals my friend

Thargor

Had some funds to spare recently so I took a small position in this after todays drop, well I will when the order is filled in the morning, my buys didnt go through for the last 2 days because it didnt reach my limit but it should do tomorrow, anyone else besides Smcgie? what do you think of the prospects short/long term? Im in long anyway.

colsku

Smcgie wrote: »

Did you watch the video? - where they have built up local infrastructure, employed all local people. The Oil belongs to the people of Kurdistan no one else . Gulf Keystones profit comes from finding this Oil and selling it to the local market were the government take a 40% Tax.

Find out what the Irish Government get in Oil/Gas Tax revenues then come back to me about illegal activities and morals my friend

The Irish Government get almost all their oil and gas from the UK and Norway my friend.

If the oil belongs to the people of Kurdistan, they only sell to the local market and then the government takes 40% on the profits, good luck to the shareholders.

neil.p.b

I've been keeping an eye on this. SP bounced off 3-month low today and finished in the green for the first time this week. Budget being passed on Sunday will help too. Could be a good entry point some time next week.

Thargor

I set a limit at 1.64 last night, got up this morning and had grabbed 5000 at 1.57, bang on the low, just going to sit on them now and see.

bestie

colsku wrote: »

The Irish Government get almost all their oil and gas from the UK and Norway my friend.

If the oil belongs to the people of Kurdistan, they only sell to the local market and then the government takes 40% on the profits, good luck to the shareholders.

I know where you're coming from, but Ireland doesn't have a company that can facilitate that, we have to depend on others too. Luckily for us we can depend on American corporations to emply most of our workforce.

Unfortunately Kurdistan is in a different situation and needs revenue etc..
that's if it turns out to find oil in good quantity. It's a gamble for companies, which are funded by selling shares.

Why should companies spend millions/billions extracting it out of the ground and risk everything for a country's benefit?

They could operate a loss and plug the hole. I'm sure the Kurds decided,

oh, well we can take a large percentage of the profits via tax or leave it in the ground which we'll never be able to afford or have the technical ability to extract ourselves - kinda like Ireland.

Smcgie

Worth pointing out here that the PM has now said he was misquoted in the news article. So the politics continue, those of you wanting a nice risk/reward play GKP is high up there.

Two wells currently drilling SH2 and SA1 both company making wells that have the probability of confirming the directors 60Billion barrels in place across the four licenses assumption.

The market is ignoring the huge achievements to date this company has made in light of the political bickering but with the Iraq budget now passed and oil currently being pumped from DNOs Kurdistan Tawlk field I see no reason why this share is not massively undervalued.

Shauny2010

I notice the SP has pulled back under £1.50, did I miss something here or has anything changed since

Smcgie

Market sentiment & the post above is the explanation. Political situation sorted one day, next day their bickering and withdrawing what they said the previous day. :rolleyes:

Still with the fundimentals sold i still hold...

Thargor

Great day, must be a relief for a lot of people with major holdings in this, Im back in profit here at last anyway, it only took a massive strike and a 30% surge in one day :rolleyes:

Anyway what do you think this is going to do on Monday? They sound really optimistic about this find and the share is well oversold by all accounts, Im holding out for £2.20 or maybe a bit higher.

Whatever happens thats me done trying to catch falling knives now, it never works no matter how much of a sure thing something looks

Smcgie

I think the biggest threat now is releasing the shaikan 2 news Thagor and that's why we have just the "Puff of smoke";) RNS.

I really think we will not see year end with the share not being a take-over or merger target.

This is history waiting to happen and it could be Kirkurk 2. Hold tight tho as SA1 and BK spud and BB news on the way.

Thargor

Very strange RNS alright, they could see the smoke and flames from their offices? And this was repeated around the web and the BBC along with pictures, it just seemed really odd the way it was reported.

Yeah I might just let these run until TO tbh, it wasnt that big a punt for me, I should have just let them finish sliding with the protests and the other crap. Whats your exit price and when Smcgie if TO never happens?

Smcgie

Nice RNS this morning although SP down on profit takers.

This is one of these shares that in 2-3 years time we will look back and say why didn't I buy more!!

I've been saying that since my initial 12p buy...

Thargor

Yeah thats exactly what it feels like to me aswell not that Im an expert, Ill be adding more as I get paid if it hangs around this level, if you want to Buy When Theres Blood In The Streets where better than Iraq? (sorry)

12p, what brought you to GKP back at those levels? Are you a millionaire by the way Smcgie? On paper at least?

Smcgie

No Thagor lol.. Unfortunately not a millionaire I am a risk taker and I like stocks that offer high upside or complete loss. I have more than several times been bitten by loss of investments (newcourt group for one)

But I do hold for long periods 3-5years minimum and do not let market fluctuations make me emotional. The only figure that bothers me with a stock is the number of shares I own, not paper value not SP.

What drew me to GKP was the fact the province is surrounded by oilfields, kirkurk being the highlight and the fact the country manager and co.founder had previously worked for over 10years as an exploration director of the Iraq national oil co.

Who would know better were to look for oil in Kurdistan than a man that spent 10years before the 'western intervention' looking for the very stuff he indeed found

neil.p.b

Smcgie/Thargor,

Do you guys mind me asking what else you're holding apart from RRL and GKP?


Neil

Smcgie

neil.p.b wrote: »

Smcgie/Thargor,

Do you guys mind me asking what else you're holding apart from RRL and GKP?


Neil

Vast Exploration VST:TSX. Another Kurdistan player
Conroy Gold CGNR.L Irish Gold Explorer
GCM Resources GCM.L Bangladesh Coal Miner

Just to name a few.

Smcgie

Sorry Vast is an oil exploration stock and a massive high risk reward play.

Company making / loss results due very very soon on their first well in Kurdistan.

Again I cannot highlight enough this is a very risky stock.

Thargor

Im 85% in Range Resources (RRL.L), sold all my holdings (Xcite and Petroceltic and one or two others) and converted them all to RRL back in July. I know I should derisk a bit but I just cant bring myself to hit the Sell button for any amount of my shares, RRL might be the share of the year, historic times for the company anyway. I have some Gulf Keystone Petroleum aswell because they're way undervalued imo and tbh I was just sick of looking at the one share all day at work

Never even heard of Vast to be honest, might take a look.

Smcgie

Thargor wrote: »

Never even heard of Vast to be honest, might take a look.

Website: http://www.vastexploration.com/

Presentation: http://www.vastexploration.com/files/file/TD%20Conference%20-%20January%202011-2_pptx.pdf

Map: (interesting):http://www.shamaranpetroleum.com/i/pdf/Kurdistan_Oil_Gas_Activity.pdf

Share Price: http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VST.V#symbol=vst.v;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

Its my favourite one trick pony at the minute, with the biggest acreage/structure in Kurdistan and already oil shows in the lower formations. Just waiting to see what NIKO (the operator) find in the lower Triassic and Jurassic of the well.

Vast increased their holding to 37% of the oil block.

Goodluck whatever you decide Thagor.

neil.p.b

Smcgie wrote: »

Sorry Vast is an oil exploration stock and a massive high risk reward play.

Company making / loss results due very very soon on their first well in Kurdistan.

Again I cannot highlight enough this is a very risky stock.

I'll look into it, I'm ok with risk. I've got a small holding in USOP (2k shares) - traded on the plus market, makes the AIM look like the FTSE!!

Cheers for the reply

Thargor

Thats more like it today, wonder if something leaked or if it was just oversold?

Smcgie

Vast released news yesterday, looks positive. I am accumulating at this level.

GKP- really excited about SA results, I think news here alone has the potential to take the SP to 2.50++

cooperguy

Im hoping to take advantage of this dip in the markets and was looking at GKP. Was thinking of putting more in RRL but decided against having too many eggs in the one basket! GKP are sitting on an Ocean of Oil and im just wondering when do they actually have targeted for production in the Shaikan block? Smcgie are you still as positive about GKP as you were when you started this thread?

What do people see as the main risks for this share (bar total global meltdown!) over the next while. Will they win the court case against them?

spondoolies

I'm sure GKP will win the court case, the judges comments at the last court date were not too favourable towards Excalibur. There's some very detailed posts re the court case on www.iii.co.uk
I wish I had more cash to top up at these knock down prices. Definitely a fairly safe bet to hold until take over (when ever that happens).

neil.p.b

More troubles:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/kurdistan-condemns-draft-iraq-oil-law-184720385.html

Thargor

When do you think we're going to see some action here? My holding is in the red now, I passed up the chance to take a 30% profit loads of times.

Smcgie

Well seeing as the ex BP CEO is now in a partnership with GKP having acquired the Turkish company Genel energy for 4 billion TODAY (nearly 3x GKPs current Market cap with half of GKPs reserves) I just wouldn't be in a hurry to sell if I where you

But do as you wish.
All the best
S.

Smcgie

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/09/06/uk-hayward-deal-idUKTRE7853TI20110906

Thargor

Im not selling and I don't need the money, Ill hold until the value of those reserves is reflected in the SP, just wondering when. Might even add more if things drop again tomorrow.

neil.p.b

Great rise since Haywards Genel acquisition, along with good volume and breaking the 200dma last week and strong resistance at 1.65 today. TA says the £2's aren't too far away. Just goes to show how quickly things can change. Hopefully this is just the start for what you long term holders deserve.

Thargor

I think we might be on our way at long last, then again maybe there's a few years wait ahead of us who knows, good to see some action in my investments at last though.

Grecco

I`m really disappointed Im not in this one, this could go to the £3-£5 range

The Marlboro Man

Thargor wrote: »

I think we might be on our way at long last, then again maybe there's a few years wait ahead of us who knows, good to see some action in my investments at last though.

Not holding GKP myself - tried twice, and it's a long story. You just have to look at the amount of oil they have (billions of barrels), it's bloody ridiculous. The Exxon news today was huge. GKP would be a hold for me till the end game...

Not too sickened though, got in the Longford Energy (Tsx), another Kurd play, @ 7c last week. Go Kursistan!

The Marlboro Man

Grecco wrote: »

I`m really disappointed Im not in this one, this could go to the £3-£5 range

I agree. I'm still undecided if I should sell elsewhere and buy in here. Exxon Mobil are no mugs - they're not just the biggest oil company in the world - but the biggest company (before Apple passed them out a few months back).

£3-£5 is not that unrealistic. Kurdistan is one of the last great frontiers for light oil in large quantities.

Thargor

Christmas might be coming for GKP holders:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45714973

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-18/exxon-weighs-deal-with-gkp-for-kurdish-oil-independent-says.html

£8 is too low aswell, it could be way more than that, it would still mean 100k to me though

yobr

Thargor wrote: »

Christmas might be coming for GKP holders:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45714973

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-18/exxon-weighs-deal-with-gkp-for-kurdish-oil-independent-says.html

£8 is too low aswell, it could be way more than that, it would still mean 100k to me though

Nice! good luck to all holders.....

neil.p.b

Thargor wrote: »

Christmas might be coming for GKP holders:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45714973

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-18/exxon-weighs-deal-with-gkp-for-kurdish-oil-independent-says.html

£8 is too low aswell, it could be way more than that, it would still mean 100k to me though

For all holders i sincerely hope i'm wrong but it looks like another planned rumour to give the ii's who took part in the recent placing a chance to off-load at a decent profit.

Thargor

Looking that way now alright, the wait goes on, there will be happy ending here though.

Thargor

Hit an all time high today when everything else was down, this is turning into one of my best performers now and I nearly sold up loads of times in the last year.

Anyone else here holding? Anybody holding since the 10-20p days?

sq_forever

Hi, I'm in gkp too but wish I had more. Huge potential here. In since jan '10. Average of 100p after a few top ups. Can't see takeover till this time next year which would be fine by me. Excalibur and oil law getting sorted should add 75p and 150p to this. Just my guess. Then for exxon to offer 3 times the sp.:D
Whatever happens in 2012 will be watching this one with interest.

Comordha

If you are up 500-1000% I would advise selling. I have slipped up many times with these junior oil stocks. Don't let the greed take over. They can dip very quickly on a little bit of bad news.

neil.p.b

Comordha wrote: »

If you are up 500-1000% I would advise selling. I have slipped up many times with these junior oil stocks. Don't let the greed take over. They can dip very quickly on a little bit of bad news.

I don't think you could label GKP a junior.

Thargor, needs to close over 203. I am looking to take a short term position but only when it manages to close over this, continues to be a sticking point.

Thargor

Even if they were a Junior there's too much oil proven with this company to sell out and regret it later, every time they drill they add millions of barrels. I'm here to the end even if it takes 10 years.

Neil, it closed at 209, would you mind elaborating on your plans there a bit please? Do you think we'll see sub £2 again in the near term? I only have 9k of these and Im wondering why I haven't been buying like mad for the last year now. Rumors of a £14 takeover from a very trusted guy on iii, I know what iii rumors are worth but that Chicago guy has been in the know in the past.

neil.p.b

I have it closing at 203.5, which doesn't really confirm anything, monday will be telling,

http://www.screencast.com/t/1Om0w0YWqeV

That area around 203 has always been heavy resistance, either bounced off it or failed to close above it. But the last couple of weeks have been pretty bullish. Look at what happened in the past after it bounced off it - always fell considerably. This time however it consolidated close to it at 190ish - this can help break it. The other times it tried to break it it rose from a much lower position, often seeing huge rises in the couple of days before it. This is not ideal as when it reaches resistance it is losing momentum as most of the buyers out there are already in stock - this is what caused the big spike up, and now there are not enough buyers left to break the resistance. This time is different and it will have more of a chance of breaking it due to starting the attack from a closer position.

When it does break it i think it's almost certain to test 225 again. A chartist i know of thinks it will test 274 within a month, he follows the stock closely. If i get in it will only be short term with trading money, all my invested funds is with RRL/RMP/MES and USOP. I think GKP is a good stock and with time will be multibag but its just not for me at current prices. No one knows when the legal issues will get sorted out/they are taken over. It could be in the next few months but it could be in the next few years. I'd rather my money be put to work with uncertainty around geology than politics. My guess is it will break 203ish resistance soon, see a rise (which i hope to jump on short term), then consolidate in a new trading range while the ongoing issues continue, but then again wtfdik!!

Hindsight trading Thargor, if none of these takeover rumours had have come out and the SP was 140 you'd be thanking yourself you hadn't bought more. I don't go on iii so don't know him but yes it is iii so everything should be taken with a handful of salt. If there is a takeover of £14 it won't be soon, when have you ever seen a takeover valuing a company at 700% of its market cap??

Oh and if there is a significant close over 203 then no i don't think anything under 200 will be seen again unless there is a market crash.

Kenny_D

neil.p.b wrote: »

A chartist i know of thinks it will test 274 within a month, he follows the stock closely.

Looks like he might be right. GKP up almost 20% today! Currently at 263.75

neil.p.b

Kenny_D wrote: »

Looks like he might be right. GKP up almost 20% today! Currently at 263.75

283 high. I closed my position earlier at 270, bit early but happy with the profit for a 1-day trade. Good luck all holders.

Thargor

Went to 319 after that, people were having fits on the boards. What do ye think of the t/o rumor now? If it was genuine surely we'd be higher than this?