Ming Flanagan- Roscommon-South Leitrim

Corsendonk

After 57 votes he has 62.5% of the vote in the constituency on the Boards poll! Is that just the stoners here adopting the constituency or is he in with a real chance of winning a seat?

opinion guy

I'd say he has a real chance. He's quite popular in the area from what I understand after getting quite involved in the issue of locals being able to cut turf from the bog. He's not the one issue pony he used to be.

JBnaglfar

I'd say he has a real chance of winning the seat. FG will retain one seat, possibly 2. The last seat will be interesting indeed. Flanagan has been elected to the Roscommon council twice on first preference votes so I presume he has a fair amount of support in Roscommon anyway, not sure about South Leitrim. He seems to be an honest politician, and wants TDs wages cut by 50% which he will voluntarily do himself.

FF will find it difficult to get a seat, running 2 candidates and possibly splitting their vote between the two counties. Labour generally don't poll very well here, so I can't see them getting a seat. I don't know much about the Sinn Fein candidate, but I think he's one of the only Leitrim candidates in the constituency (along with one of the FF one). He could get a good amount of support, and challenge for a seat. I know absolutely nothing about the other ind.

I would imagine FG will get 2 seats, and it will be between Flanagan and the Sinn Fein candidate Kenny for the final seat.

bijapos

He will do well but I dont see him taking a seat. Roscommon-South Leitrim will give two seats to FG and the third is up for grabs.

Since Michael Finnneran retired the FF seat is not a guarantee especially since FF will insist on running two candidates. If they had run one (Rachael Doherty) they would have had a good chance. FF now have a candidate in the Leitrim area and one from near Roscommon town. It seems that the FF members wanted one candidate, the party dictated two. Big mistake on their part but I'd be happy to see them get no seat.

The main problem in R-SL is that the non FG-FF vote is being split three ways between John Kelly (Lab), Ming (Ind), and the Roscommon Hospital Action Committee candidate. The status of the hospital is a big issue, they already had a TD (Tom Foxe) elected on this issue in 1989 and 1992 and they will do well. It is the political hot potato in Roscommon county at least and all parties are making various promises on it. Parish pump politics at its best.

Kelly did well as an Independent in 2007 polling over 4500 votes and is interestingly in the same ward as Ming for the locals (Castlerea) where he got 2200 vs 1550 for Ming.

Ming is very high profile, his stance on turf cutting gave him a national profile but some of the more conservative voters may be disinclined to vote for him because of his drug policies. All in all I doubt that he will get elected.

Incidentally the constituency with Roscommon in it has seemingly never returned the same team of TDs to the Dail. Not sure how true this is.

Bottle_of_Smoke

I emailed paddy power for odds on him and they'd only give me 7/4

Bottle_of_Smoke

just checked their website now and he's @ 10/11!

encyclopedia

Seems like an honest intelligent guy who from what I have read has been great as a counciller in Roscommon. I know that if he was running in Galway again I would strongly consider voting for him. As a previous poster said he is not a one trick pony anymore

fishder

I live in Dublin but Iam from Castlerea I keep in touch with my home town and I would love to see Ming or should I say Luke Flanagan do well. From what I hear and have seen off this guy he is a very honest and speakes his mind.I would love to see more people like him in politics.I know that what family I have left in castlerea will give him no 1.We need more people like Ming imo.

#15

JBnaglfar wrote: »

I would imagine FG will get 2 seats, and it will be between Flanagan and the Sinn Fein candidate Kenny for the final seat.

I think Labour's John Kelly will be Ming's biggest challenger for the final seat.

johnmcdnl

Is Ming Flanagan actually as popular as the boards election sim seems to suggest :eek: he's polling over 60% right now..

I know boards isn't exactly a random sample but it seems to be working out pretty accurate for a lot of the constituencies I'd be familiar with and is working out pretty similar to other polls so it's probably not that inaccurate..

But is he actually that popular among the people that he's going to win by a landslide on polling day even when the non internet savy people cast their votes??

Asok

He is a very popular guy as his re-elections have shown. He is something of a rarity in Irish politics where he actually goes out and does something. It would be a shame to lose him as a councellor because he does an awful alot of good for the area but I do wish him the very best of luck in the election.

quidestveritas?

Going through the various constituencies on the board.ie page, there do seem to be quite a number of fringe candidates like Luke Flanagan and Dylan Haskins that are scoring at levels you can't possibly believe are true.

quidestveritas?

quidestveritas? wrote: »

Going through the various constituencies on the board.ie page, there do seem to be quite a number of fringe candidates like Luke Flanagan and Dylan Haskins that are scoring at levels you can't possibly believe are true.

Just finished going through all of them - only 4 possible seats for Fianna Fáil!! We are going to need a really large sample and also think about what kind of people are most likely to vote on a forum like this!!! :rolleyes:

JBnaglfar

#15 wrote: »

I think Labour's John Kelly will be Ming's biggest challenger for the final seat.

Being honest I'd like to see both of them elected. John Kelly got a decent vote as an ind. last time, 9.9%. However, the Labour candidate only got 1.8% in 2007, so I'm not sure if joining Labour will help or hinder Kelly. Still, I would not rule him out of the running, I believe he has done well in local elections over recent years too.

Is Ming Flanagan actually as popular as the boards election sim seems to suggest he's polling over 60% right now..

Hard to believe but lets wait and see :pac: I am glad to be voting in this unpredictable constituency.

Da_Viper

I voted for him.

Seems like one of the only honest and articulate politicians we have in that bunch.

For once I'm glad to be voting for someone in this area who might do something

Syferus

My vote went for him too. An on-line poll will obviously skew the table in favour of the young, colourful candidate, especially in a field of little else of note, but I do think he has a serious chance to win a seat. I'm in his local electoral constituency and although I don't even agree with him on a few issues I could never fault his honesty and hard work - he's a full-time councilor who also is a big part of alot of local groups that help, in a rather sleepy part of the world, foster a better community spirit. He's currently mayor of the county and recently halved the mayor's expense allowance - he's one of the few who practices what he preaches. To be able to vote for someone you know is going to be a real voice for the area and offer real change is something of real worth and I don't take it for granted for one second.

I'd encourage anyone in the constituency to look beyond the superficial - the name, the hair - and you'll find one of the best public representatives this area has seen in a long time. He's worth anyone's vote.

My take is that Fine Gael should get two seats, but slight re-drawings of the constituency's map have damaged Feighan's base more than any other candidate - couple that with the fact I can barely think of any impact he's made as a TD over the last four years and I'd say to expect his first preferences to be lower than outsiders might predict. The vote could be very fragmented, though, as even Naughton has the local stink of having actively conspired against Kenny, a likely 'Western Taoiseach', in Burton's leadership challenge last Summer. That deeply offended the party faithful and it'll be interesting to see how many in Naughton's area opt to give their number one to Feighan - or another candidate - as a result.

The final seat is a battle between John Kelly of Labour and Ming - there's actually a good story to that situation as Ming was a fervent supporter of John Kelly in his independent TD run in 2007, but that friendship has obviously evaporated in recent years. Martin Kenny of Sinn Fein has been a perennial holding candidate in the area and there is very little Sinn Fein support here so don't count on him doing well. All he has going for him is he's based in Leitrim and even at that, 2007 showed that that is a poisoned chalice for candidates in this constituency - county boarders really matter around here.

The Hospital Action Committee are running a candidate too, but he was a late game addition and even though the hospital is a huge issue here all candidates have been eager to jump on it and it's dilluted the HAC's political cout somewhat. The HAC - if they were sensible and not navel-gazing zealots, they chose their own chairman as their candidate - should have endorsed Ming as he would have been a forceful, high profile voice on the issue and the endorsement had the potential to put him over the top. It wasn't to be, but it's still very hard to tell how the chips will fall.

Teddy_Picker

I don't believe that Ming is going to destroy everyone in his wake, as the boards poll would suggest, but if I'd say he could sneak it on the day. While the boards voters are unlikely to accurately reflect the Roscommon-South Leitrim electorate, I think a lot of voters who wouldn't necessarily form part of Ming's natural "fanbase" will throw him a no. 2 or no.3 here and there. He is a high-profile figure in the region, and while controversial, his recent good work for the turf cutters will have won him approval.

brendankelly

He has spoken out against the great oil and gas give away and the sale of our forests and for that I would vote for him if he was in my area.

jmayo

Corsendonk wrote: »

After 57 votes he has 62.5% of the vote in the constituency on the Boards poll! Is that just the stoners here adopting the constituency or is he in with a real chance of winning a seat?

He in with a real good chance.
I remember hearing him stand up against the crazy planning during the bubble.
One of the fe wlocal politicans bar the looney greens to do so.
He stood up for the turf cutters and actually performed very good on primetime.

There is a link on his website to Sean O'Rourke interview in Galway where he is on panel.
He lets Sean know that in 1999 when running for Euros (I think ??) he was kicked out of the same studio and now he is invited guest.
So much for RTE and the media trying to to convince people to enter politics.

brendankelly

I think he is not defending the turf cutters. He never mentioned Local Agenda 21

Syferus

brendankelly wrote: »

I think he is not defending the turf cutters. He never mentioned Local Agenda 21

Trust me, he is. He's essentially the mouthpiece of the whole campaign against limiting turf cutting on raised bogs and just last Sunday he was the key speaker at a 4000-plus rally in Athlone by the TCCA.

I fully disagree with him on that issue but it's something that highlights just how real a possibility his election is. The turf cutting ban is almost as important an issue as the hospital for most people in Roscommon - and I'd wager far more pertinent an issue for alot of people - so having that whole campaign on-side is huge for Ming.

brendankelly

Syferus. I respectfully suggest you Google Local Agenda 21. It is also mentioned on the Fis Nua web site.

Syferus

brendankelly wrote: »

Syferus. I respectfully suggest you Google Local Agenda 21. It is also mentioned on the Fis Nua web site.

I fail to see how not mentioning Agenda 21 changed the facts of what I said - he's done plenty for the issue.

grumpytrousers

I think he's in with a fair decent shot of it. I've known him for years and whilst I disagree with him on a few issues, I'll give him the #1. He's got 'heart'. He's doing this because he actually gives a damn about things.

Barely a week goes by without him having some spiel or other printed in the local paper where he's going on about something, but it's not the usual empty vapid crud that passes for politicial discourse. He'll have done his homework, read up the stuff, and come up with a position. You mightn't always agree with it, but he's doing this on his own.

Look the chances are that we're looking at an FG/Labour government and the Independents won't matter that much. If all Ming does is keep on throwing curveballs at the government, questioning the system and so on, then he's earning his keep.

You'd be surprised at the 'elderly' vote as well; I remember after the local elections in 2004 talking to a neighbour of mine (I think I actually posted this on boards.ie at the time) and she said that she'd voted for him. The said lady was retired quite some time, would be active in the local bridge club and can spot a bullsh*t merchant at fifty paces.

Beruthiel

johnmcdnl wrote: »

Is Ming Flanagan actually as popular as the boards election sim seems to suggest :eek: he's polling over 60% right now..

It says an awful lot about the character of a man when my 73 year old religious, non drinking, non smoking, conservative parents have every intention to vote for him.
He tells it like it is, is straight up and has done an lot of good work so far. If only we had more like him!

daveydave25

#15 wrote: »

I think Labour's John Kelly will be Ming's biggest challenger for the final seat.

not a chance will kelly get elected....

daveydave25

ming is in with a great chance of a seat, i know hes gonna get a big vote

Syferus

daveydave25 wrote: »

not a chance will kelly get elected....

The more I think about it, the more I agree. People outside Roscommon mightn't realise how little sway Labour's name has in Roscommon, with Labour candidates routinely as disregarded as Green Party or no-hope independent candidates. Labour simply never really have had mind share in this county and Kelly's vote might even be negatively affected by being associated with Labour, not because of anything as grand as their social policies, but because it has tied Kelly, previously a popular independent, behind an apparent veil of party politics. That has the potential to be very damaging in this election particularly. The ideal for me would be for Naughton, Ming and Kelly elected but that's just wishful thinking.

Both Kelly and Ming are based very near each other so if Kelly is eliminated early his votes will be Ming's trump card.

Likewise if Gerry Kilrane (FF, Leitrim-based) is eliminated early there's a question mark as to who his votes will transfer to. His vote will be some manner of Leitrim/party faithful combination and how many votes Martin Kenny (SF) siphons from his transfers - depriving Ivan Connaughton (the real FF candidate) of momentum - will probably be the bellwether for who's going to be elected.

The longer that Ming hangs in the contest the more and more likely he is to be elected because the FF name will be transfer poison in all but the case of Kilrane's vote. I still think Martin Kenny has little or no chance of actually being elected, but his performance in Leitrim could push him into the role of kingmaker.

aDeener

Beruthiel wrote: »

It says an awful lot about the character of a man when my 73 year old religious, non drinking, non smoking, conservative parents have every intention to vote for him.
He tells it like it is, is straight up and has done an lot of good work so far. If only we had more like him!

and you get clowns on here constantly banging on about over OAPs and their civil war voting patterns. :rolleyes:

Syferus

aDeener wrote: »

and you get clowns on here constantly banging on about over OAPs and their civil war voting patterns. :rolleyes:

That most certainly exists here too, though. Older people generally are more likely to stick to one side or the other and are more unlikely to be a floating voter, even if they say they are.

Alot of people don't even know why they're supporting FG over FF (this election aside), which is the general hard split, just that their families have always been blue or green and more often than not that line of thought continued to the next generation. You can put it down to time and experience, being stuck in the mud, ignorance of - or indifference to - issues, irrational hatred of the 'other side', the effectiveness of the political machines in polarising people, whatever, but I know more people like that than not and they tend to be older rather than younger.

The anger at FF has opened the door for a candidate like Ming to get something approaching a fair hearing from people - this time, alot more people are conditioned to want change, not the status quo.

gebbel

Down in Castlerea at the weekend. Ming is certainly running an energetic campaign. He will need to mobilise all of his younger fanbase to go out and vote on the day. The older and more conservative voters will, in the main, not vote for him because of his association with cannabis. There is respect for him in many quarters because of his stance on the turf cutting and cutting politicians pay. There is also a dislike of him for the obvious reasons. Remember this is Roscommon and Leitrim....with an older age profile and conservative views that won't help him.

I would read absolutely nothing into the boards.ie poll that has him a mile ahead. The majority of those votes have been posted by younger, internet savvy people.....not a true representation of all of the electorate down there.

My view: he still has a great chance of taking the 3rd seat after the 2 FG candidates.

Syferus

gebbel wrote: »

Down in Castlerea at the weekend. Ming is certainly running an energetic campaign. He will need to mobilise all of his younger fanbase to go out and vote on the day. The older and more conservative voters will, in the main, not vote for him because of his association with cannabis. There is respect for him in many quarters because of his stance on the turf cutting and cutting politicians pay. There is also a dislike of him for the obvious reasons. Remember this is Roscommon and Leitrim....with an older age profile and conservative views that won't help him.

I would read absolutely nothing into the boards.ie poll that has him a mile ahead. The majority of those votes have been posted by younger, internet savvy people.....not a true representation of all of the electorate down there.

My view: he still has a great chance of taking the 3rd seat after the 2 FG candidates.

Honestly, from living here though his rise since his return to Castlerea in 2004 the immediate locals, with little regard for age, have come to hugely respect him to the point the whole cannabis issue has become next to moot.

As his profile has spread in the country with the turf cutting campaign, which appeals to exactly what his potential weakness would be, connecting with rural voters who may have had a caricature in their head, a similar negation of the generally cited issues has begun to happen on a county level.

Coupled with the fact that he's seen throughout the county as easily the most articulate, intelligent (he's quite well educated, and even has been studying for an economics degree to bolster his understanding of that issue) and hard working councilor in living memory it's hard to overstate how seriously he's taken in all quarters of Roscommon life now. It's only in national newspapers where he's regularly characterised by his pro-cannabis stance. From what I've seen, people are plenty aware of his position on it but, realise there's far more pressing issues to deal with and indeed those are the issues he's been pushing.

I'd expect large transfers for Ming as alot of party people, the rapidly shrinking Fianna Fail faithful aside (he essentially removed them from control of the county council last year, which led to him being the first mayor under a Fine Gael-lead coalition), will be very willing to give him a #2 or #3. I'd also expect some tactical voting to go his way as Fine Gael are by all accounts safe for their two seats in this election.

clikityclak

Aye Ming will do better than expected, if people like my parents are pissed off with the **** spewing from FF then expect Ming to get at least a no2 from a lot of floating voters. He's the only one I'm giving a vote for, I'll be making my mind up on giving anyone else anything over the next few days.

Pal

Paddy Power has him at evens.

Boards.ie/vote has him with two quotas .

Confused

grumpytrousers

Pal wrote: »

Paddy Power has him at evens.

Boards.ie/vote has him with two quotas .

Confused

Why confused? Paddy Power is going by the odds on him being elected based on the real world; boards has him with two quotas because, in the main, the boards 'constituency' is heavily biased towards young people who are probably more liberal in political outlook

loldog

He seems to be going down well with the crowd here. There's a hospital issue in Roscommon too. people often vote Independents in when there's a hospital at risk.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGzSLdlkDPc

telekon

Good luck to Ming, I've always liked his passion and views on more 'liberal' subjects to which I tend to agree with him on.

However, I am worried he may just be a 'one-issue' candidate in this election. Where does he stand on political reform does anyone know?

jank

He told John Drennen he was a tool on todayFM not long back so he would have gotten my vote!:D

Hope he gets in.

JBnaglfar

telekon wrote: »

However, I am worried he may just be a 'one-issue' candidate in this election. Where does he stand on political reform does anyone know?

Have a look here. It covers his policies for reform of politics at both national and local level. I agree with pretty much all of it, especially enhancing the power of local councils. IMO, the dail should focus on national issues and TDs should not just be elected on what they will do for the area. While Roscommon hospital is an issue for Ming, his health policies are more than just 'protect our local hospital' and includes reform of the health service in general, including improving mental health services.

Have a look through the rest of policies and I think you will find that most of it is relevant nationally.

telekon

JBnaglfar wrote: »

Have a look here. It covers his policies for reform of politics at both national and local level. I agree with pretty much all of it, especially enhancing the power of local councils. IMO, the dail should focus on national issues and TDs should not just be elected on what they will do for the area. While Roscommon hospital is an issue for Ming, his health policies are more than just 'protect our local hospital' and includes reform of the health service in general, including improving mental health services.

Have a look through the rest of policies and I think you will find that most of it is relevant nationally.

Thanks for that. It resembles my own thoughts on the subject. If the upper house in the United States can manage with 100 seats, surely the Dail can too...

bijapos

loldog wrote: »

He seems to be going down well with the crowd here. There's a hospital issue in Roscommon too. people often vote Independents in when there's a hospital at risk.

The problem is that Roscommon Hospital Action Committee decided to run their own candidate thus splitting the vote even further. Not a wise decision by them.

Mahatma coat

I was curiousa about this Fella, so I watched 'The Life and Crimes of Citizen Ming' His little Propaganda movie from a few years ago.

I'd vote for him, and not only that I had a quick Youtube search for some of his more recent interviews and Stuff, he Seems to still believe in it, From what I can See at a distance, Ming's reform policy seems to be the Aul Ghandi Mantra

Be the change You want to see

Syferus

loldog wrote: »

He seems to be going down well with the crowd here. There's a hospital issue in Roscommon too. people often vote Independents in when there's a hospital at risk.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGzSLdlkDPc

I'd trust anyone to say there's not a time people aren't up in arms about some aspect of the hospital.

And to whoever said that they're afraid he'd be a one issue candidate, his coverage in-county (which is all that really matters when it comes to media coverage, really) has mostly centered on political reform, the economy, tourism and a slice of turf cutting/hospital campaigning for good measure. He's getting a rounded message out, at least.

eagle eye

bijapos wrote: »

The problem is that Roscommon Hospital Action Committee decided to run their own candidate thus splitting the vote even further. Not a wise decision by them.

They picked a very poor candidate. Its likely that a sizeable majority of voters for that candidate will give him their no.2.

My mother is in her mid sixties and is going to give him her no.1. Lots of people are predicting that Denis Naughton will top the poll but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Luke Flanagan does. He will get my no.1 too. He is undoubtedly the hardest working politician that I've ever come across in the area.

The predictions being made in the local media are 2 FG and a big battle between Flanagan, Connaughton(FF) and Kenny(SF) for the third seat.

From talking to people I get the feeling that Naughton and Flanagan are going to be elected with a very large first preference for both putting them well on the way.

The third seat should go to Feighan but if none of them have reached the quota by the time it comes down to the three of them then Connaughton or Kenny could take that last seat.

Ryan OConnor

I've been out canvassing for Luke in Roscommon Town over the weekend and the response was far better than expected, for every person that was skeptical there were about 30 that had already decided to give him their number one. People of all ages too, so this idea that he is unpopular among the older voters doesn't seem to be the case, one woman did mention the prayer thing but I asked her to come along to his speech in the town on Sunday and she seemed impressed. If this is the case in other towns and it actually translates into votes on polling day we could be in for a big shock.

telekon

Ryan OConnor wrote: »

I've been out canvassing for Luke in Roscommon Town over the weekend and the response was far better than expected, for every person that was skeptical there were about 30 that had already decided to give him their number one. People of all ages too, so this idea that he is unpopular among the older voters doesn't seem to be the case, one woman did mention the prayer thing but I asked her to come along to his speech in the town on Sunday and she seemed impressed. If this is the case in other towns and it actually translates into votes on polling day we could be in for a big shock.

I'd expect that in urban areas. How about rural voters though? How would the fine farming community of Roscommon take to Ming and his...'ways'?? Any indication yet?

eagle eye

telekon wrote: »

I'd expect that in urban areas. How about rural voters though? How would the fine farming community of Roscommon take to Ming and his...'ways'?? Any indication yet?

Well the turf-cutting section will be backing him I'd say.

Ryan OConnor

telekon wrote: »

I'd expect that in urban areas. How about rural voters though? How would the fine farming community of Roscommon take to Ming and his...'ways'?? Any indication yet?

I spoke to a good few from the surrounding areas, all of them said they will be giving him a stroke for the turf issue, I would imagine that would be the case for most of the county, it being fairly bog-rich. I think he missed Roscommon Mart on Friday though which is a shame as that would have shed a little more light, I may call in myself this Friday and ask around.

Lapin

If I lived across the river in the wilderness of County Roscommon, Ming would get my number 1.

I wish him the best of luck.

Wish he was running on this side of the Suck.

With the exception of Lorraine Higgins and Dermot Connolly, Galway East has some of the most un-inspirational candidates in the country.

baldbear

I voted for Flanagan in my first time at the ballot box in 2002.It's a pity i can't vote for him this time. He seems honest and i think alot of people will see this.

I hope him and mick Wallace in Wexford get in. I'm sick of looking at the same old dishonest gobshítes.

clikityclak

Its sounding better than expected for him alright. If there's anything right and just left in politics then our mayor will get elected on the first count!!