Constituencies to watch in this election

hotmail.com

Despite the long list of FF retirements and FF's strategy of having one FF candidate per constituency, there still remains several constituencies that are going to produce high profile FF casualties. Here's the constituencies and the potential casuaties to watch over the campaign and on election count day.

Dun Laoghaire - Mary Hanafin, Barry Andrews, (Ciaran Cuffe GP)

Dublin South West - Charlie O'Connor, Conor Lenihan

Dublin North - Michael O'Kennedy, Darragh O'Brien

Dublin North West - Pat Carey

Limerick City - Peter Power

Laois-Offaly - John Moloney, Sean Flemming (Barry Cowen may mess up the vote share)

Cork South Central - Michael Martin, Michael McGrath

Kildare South - Sean Power, Sean O Fearghail

Dublin North Central - Sean Haughey

Longford-Westhmeath - Mary O'Rourke, Peter Kelly


From a personal non-political point of view, I hope that Mary O'Rourke fails to get a seat and goes into permanent retirement.

Pat Carey is likely to lose out in Dublin North West, even after Noel Ahern's departure.

What does everybody think?

Jagle

limerick city, willie o dea no?

hotmail.com

Jagle wrote: »

limerick city, willie o dea no?

Given his huge personal vote in 2007, I think it's unlikely he'll lose out. But I don't live in the area, so I don't know what the local opinion is towards him and FF at the moment.

Jagle

well pretty low opinion of FF but willie somehow, i dunno have a feeling he might do well

jmayo

Watch Roscommon for arrival of Luke "Ming" Flanagan.

REPSOC1916

hotmail.com wrote: »

Given his huge personal vote in 2007, I think it's unlikely he'll lose out. But I don't live in the area, so I don't know what the local opinion is towards him and FF at the moment.

O'Dea could find himself at risk as well. It would be the ultimate Portillo moment in this country.

One of the main reasons is the boundary changes and the fact the constituency is down a seat. Much of the rural part of Limerick East, which heavily voted for O'Dea, has been removed to the new Limerick County constituency and Limerick City (to give the constituency it's proper title) is now the Limerick City Council Area with Castletroy and a small sliver of Clare. FF also had a disasterous local election returning only one councillor to the city council.

O'Dea seems to have lost the rag (in one incident two months ago he told a constituent to fu*ck off) and there is very palpable anger and resentment towards O'Dea's over his handling of Shannon Airport, Dell and the cancellation of the regeneration program for the city.

Noonan (FG) and Jan O'Sullivan (Lab) are both dead certs. Then there's four candidates for the final two seats O'Donnel (2nd FG), Leddin (2nd Lab), O'Dea and Quinlivan (SF). Power won't feature here IMO.

tipptom

Jagle wrote: »

well pretty low opinion of FF but willie somehow, i dunno have a feeling he might do well

Seen Willies posters today,wouldnt know he is in the ff party at all,is this cowardice or cute hoorism.
Maira hoctor ff or noel coonan for the last seat in north tipperary after michael lowry ind and alan kelly lab.

Buceph

hotmail.com wrote: »

Cork South Central - Michael Martin, Michael McGrath

This is my constituency, and it's going to be really interesting. You have the leader of FF, a native Corkonian who has long been seen as in the anti-Bertie/Cowen camp, and who pretty much always is the first FF TD elected from the area up against a guy who was recently a councillor, and made a big name for himself there. Then he went on to get a fairly big first preference vote in the last election. Is very much seen as involved in local issues. But is also seen as one of the few TDs who acted against the banks (sending his committees findings to the Gardaí.) And who is now a front bench member directly involved with financial reform.

I think it's possible we could see anything from neither of them elected, MMartin elected, both of them elected, or even MMcGrath elected ahead of the party leader.

Badabing

How would Cowen mess up the vote share? He's Offaly all to himself.

MURF71

looking forward to dun laoghaire laois offaly and roscommon alright i expect barry andrews to loose out in dun laoghaire

Sulmac

I would add Dublin South to that list. Five seats up for grabs, but only four with outgoing TDs (one has been vacant since George Lee resigned), one of whom is retiring (Tom Kitt). It should be interesting given the candidates.

An outgoing Minister (Eamon Ryan), two senior Fine Gael TDs (Olivia Mitchell and Alan Shatter), Peter Mathews running for Fine Gael and Shane Ross; as well as two Labour candidates, a Fianna Fáil candidate and People Before Profit/United Left Alliance candidate.

Pal

Donegal.
Paddy Power have Mary Coughlan to get re-elected at 1/7

How in the name of jaysus can anybody, even the staunchest FF voter, vote her back in

Badabing

Pal wrote: »

Donegal.
Paddy Power have Mary Coughlan to get re-elected at 1/7

How in the name of jaysus can anybody, even the staunchest FF voter, vote her back in

Or Dinny McGinley for that matter

Corsendonk

Dublin North

Trevor Sargent should have a tight run in against Clare Daly for the 4th seat. FF seems to be favouring Darragh O'Brien over Kennedy.

Badabing

Wexford will be intresting aswell, usually 2 FF 2 FG 1 Labour. Labour will be looking to take 2nd seat also Sinn Fein in with a shout. Vote management will be crucial here for Lab and FG.

hotmail.com

REPSOC1916 wrote: »

O'Dea could find himself at risk as well. It would be the ultimate Portillo moment in this country.

One of the main reasons is the boundary changes and the fact the constituency is down a seat. Much of the rural part of Limerick East, which heavily voted for O'Dea, has been removed to the new Limerick County constituency and Limerick City (to give the constituency it's proper title) is now the Limerick City Council Area with Castletroy and a small sliver of Clare. FF also had a disasterous local election returning only one councillor to the city council.

O'Dea seems to have lost the rag (in one incident two months ago he told a constituent to fu*ck off) and there is very palpable anger and resentment towards O'Dea's over his handling of Shannon Airport, Dell and the cancellation of the regeneration program for the city.

Noonan (FG) and Jan O'Sullivan (Lab) are both dead certs. Then there's four candidates for the final two seats O'Donnel (2nd FG), Leddin (2nd Lab), O'Dea and Quinlivan (SF). Power won't feature here IMO.

Thanks for that good local analysis.

Labour running two candidates in this constituency is a risky idea, particularly given Labour's apparent declining support.

Despite all those factors you mention about O'Dea, I still think it's highly unlikely that he will fail to get a seat there. He received 38.6% of the first preference vote in 2007 - even if that's halved this time around, he'll get elected.

The Volt

hotmail.com wrote: »

Given his huge personal vote in 2007, I think it's unlikely he'll lose out. But I don't live in the area, so I don't know what the local opinion is towards him and FF at the moment.

Wicklow for the turfing out (excuse the pun) of Cock Roche.

Flimbos

Dublin West should be interesting.

9 candidates competing for 4 seats. Brian Lenihan did top the poll in 2007 but this time around a lot of his votes may swing towards Leo Varadkar and Joan Burton.

Then there's Joe Higgins.

FG and Labour are also running a second candidate each.

And with Fianna Fail deciding to run a second candidate, this could further dilute Lenihan's vote among the FF die-hards.

Jeboa Safari

hotmail.com wrote: »

Laois-Offaly - John Moloney, Sean Flemming (Barry Cowen may mess up the vote share)

One of Maloney or Flemming are gone, they have to share Laois between them, together with Charlie Flanagan of FG and Stanley of SF. Cowen has the Offaly FFvote more or less to himself like another poster said.

mikemac

Tipperary North
Maire Hoctor

It's not long ago she was promoted by Bertie to Junior Minister. I believed she had special responsibility for the elderly.
Soon lost her job with some others over the complaints there were far too many junior ministers.

Some people drag up her Primetime interview, realy that's a non-story, nobody cares

When the Minister for Health downgrades a local hospital, it's the local TD who gets the blame which can be unfair realy.
But it's happened and Hoctor from Nenagh has lost a lot of votes.
And now Labour have a new candidate from Portroe, just 10km away.

It's not a high profile casualty but Tipp North without a FF TD is strange, in fact I don't think it's ever happened before!

REPSOC1916

hotmail.com wrote: »

Thanks for that good local analysis.

Labour running two candidates in this constituency is a risky idea, particularly given Labour's apparent declining support.

Despite all those factors you mention about O'Dea, I still think it's highly unlikely that he will fail to get a seat there. He received 38.6% of the first preference vote in 2007 - even if that's halved this time around, he'll get elected.

Labour will still poll highly and get a seat though I think they've missed their opportunity for a second seat here. They ran two in the Spring Tide where they were pollling lower nationally compared to now. Kemmy was elected and Jan amaged to survive until the second last count.

O'Dea probably will make it but he'll lose more than half of his vote. Transfers could be a problem for him and I can imagine him being pretty nervous at the count centre.

Burning Eclipse

Limerick man here. O'Dea will get elected on the first count... I'd love to be wrong in this regard, but I don't think I will be. I have spoken to a number of people who said that they hate Fianna Fail, but when asked which local politicians they like, say Willie O'Dea immediately... More people that you would want to believe.

As was previously pointed out, Michael Noonan and Jan O'Sullivan are both certain to be voted in, and I'd bet that Kieran O'Donnell (FG) will be the 4th. Peter Power is gone, and Joe Leddin doesn't have much of a chance imo. Ditto for Quinlivan, although I could see him being a close 5th to O'Donnell.

What is interesting (as REPSOC1916 pointed out) is that FF got 1 local councillor elected in the last local elections. FG ran 8 candidates and got 8 elected. Does not bode well for FF.

thetonynator

Looking at the thread title and the response so far, i think you'd be hard pushed to find a constituency that isn't interesting this time round!

Carlow kilkenny- 4 gov td's, prob only one will get back in, with m.j. nolan retiring, and the green vote gone. John mcguinness will have a fight on his hands!

Sierra Oscar

Should be interesting to see if Averil Power takes a seat in Dublin North East. Seems that she is battling with SF for the third seat. Michael Woods is endorsing her, and he himself has been a TD for the area for over 30 years.

56lcd

jmayo wrote: »

Watch Roscommon for arrival of Luke "Ming" Flanagan.

Luke "Ming" Flanagan is the best politician in Ireland by a country mile, unfortunately he is not running in my constituency

hotmail.com

Who is this Luke "Ming" Flanaghan? Is he an ex member of a political party or a local issue candidate?

The Volt

hotmail.com wrote: »

Who is this Luke "Ming" Flanaghan? Is he an ex member of a political or a local issue candidate?

Mayor of Roscommon. Sent a spliff to every TD and senator in the Dail :pac:

The Volt

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Should be interesting to see if Averil Power takes a seat in Dublin North East. Seems that she is battling with SF for the third seat. Michael Woods is endorsing her, and he himself has been a TD for the area for over 30 years.

God I hope not. Her, Hanifin and Coughlan all remind me of that Delores Umbridge from Harry Potter with their horrid pink outfits and life motto of 'I must not tell lies'

hotmail.com

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Should be interesting to see if Averil Power takes a seat in Dublin North East. Seems that she is battling with SF for the third seat. Michael Woods is endorsing her, and he himself has been a TD for the area for over 30 years.

I can't see Michael Woods' support having any impact on the outcome to be honest.

Also and this is important, Averil failed to get elected in the local council elections last year. So I personally can't see her ending up in the top 5 candidates, never mind the top 3.

Her inclusion in the frontbench was a cynical stunt to help FF nationally, not to boost her profile.

Sierra Oscar

hotmail.com wrote: »

I can't see Michael Woods' support having any impact on the outcome to be honest.

Also and this is important, Averil failed to get elected in the local council elections last year. So I personally can't see her ending up in the top 5 candidates, never mind the top 3.

I can - considering Wood's is canvassing on the doors on behalf of her campaign, trying to pass on his loyalist vote which has been with him for 30 years. The comparison between the local elections in 2009 and this campaign is also a poor one to make, considering Power had zero profile going into the locals. This time around she is on the national media & has two years campaigning in.

If she doesn't end up #3 then it will certainly be #4 - the bookies have it down to her and Larry O'Toole (SF) battling it for third seat.

hotmail.com

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I can - considering Wood's is canvassing on the doors on behalf of her campaign, trying to pass on his loyalist vote which has been with him for 30 years. The comparison between the local elections in 2009 and this campaign is also a poor one to make, considering Power had zero profile going into the locals. This time around she is on the national media & has two years campaigning in.

If she doesn't end up #3 then it will certainly be #4 - the bookies have it down to her and Larry O'Toole (SF) battling it for third seat.

I don't know the local area that well, but surely she still has almost zero profile going into this campaign because she didn't get elected in 2009 and therefore has no record of achievement in the area. Admittedly her profile will be increased with her promotion in the party but I can't see it having a significant impact.

I see it as 1 Lab, 1 FG, 1 SF.

edit: If she was a daughter/niece of Woods, his support would have a much bigger impact. She'll pick up a few extra votes alright with him going around, nothing major though. We shall see.

crafty dodger

Have FF selected the the candidate(s) yet in Dublin South?
The only one I have heard of is Maria Corrigan

Interestingly I havent seen any FF posters yet in the Dundrum area but loads of posters for Olivia Mitchell FG. This is so different from 2007 when FF had the place wallpapaered with posters at the start of the campaign.

I hope FF go down in flames i Dublin South

Lame Lantern

Prediction: Hanafin and Andrews will both get in. They're both very strong on local politics in Dun Laoghaire and hence attractive to transfers while FG is incredibly weak. Gilmore transfers will be strong but I'm not sure a carpet bagger like Bacik will fare well in Dun Laoghaire politics. If Andrews can overcome the initial wave of Gilmore, Boyd Barrett and Cuffe transfers I think he'll pick up virtually everything from Mitchell-O'Connor's elimination once Seán Barrett reaches the quota.

hotmail.com

crafty dodger wrote: »

Have FF selected the the candidate(s) yet in Dublin South?
The only one I have heard of is Maria Corrigan

Interestingly I havent seen any FF posters yet in the Dundrum area but loads of posters for Olivia Mitchell FG. This is so different from 2007 when FF had the place wallpapaered with posters at the start of the campaign.

I hope FF go down in flames i Dublin South

Maria Corrigan is the only FF candidate in Dublin South, Shay Brennan, son of Seamus Brennan was overlooked this time.

FG will be hoping to win three out of the five seats with Shatter, Mitchell and banking expert, Peter Matthews. Alex White will do well for Labour and finally Shane Ross will probably get a seat given his national profile.

Eamon Ryan and Corrigan may get swept away, it all depends on FG winning that third seat. Hard to call.

hotmail.com

Lame Lantern wrote: »

Prediction: Hanafin and Andrews will both get in. They're both very strong on local politics in Dun Laoghaire and hence attractive to transfers while FG is incredibly weak. Gilmore transfers will be strong but I'm not sure a carpet bagger like Bacik will fare well in Dun Laoghaire politics. If Andrews can overcome the initial wave of Gilmore, Boyd Barrett and Cuffe transfers I think he'll pick up virtually everything from Mitchell-O'Connor's elimination once Seán Barrett reaches the quota.

That would be a huge upset and it's not even something FF think will happen.

FF got 35% in DL in '07, well below the national average and the latest poll suggests that FF is on 13-14% in Dublin. So there just isn't two FF seats in DL.

Boyd Barrett will do very well. My own prediction is:

1 FG
1 Lab
1 Ind
1 FF - Hanafin

Andrews and Cuffe lose out.

Lame Lantern

FF will get a seat in Dublin South, no doubt. They'd have to perform truly terribly not to get a quota in a 5seater and there'll be enough Sheamus Brennan loyalists to get one candidate through. I think they were hoping to get Barry Andrews in here and compete for a second.

As far as FG goes, it will be interesting to see whether or not the memory of George Lee will come into play. It's a very eccentric constituency. Olivia Mitchell will probably top the poll, with Alex White hitting an early quota too. Who's the other Labour candidate? If it's somebody good they have a real shot. Alan Shatter remains ridiculously unpopular in that consitutuency for a candidate they continue to field, and it will be interesting to see how their newest celebrity candidate plays. Ryan is gone for sure. Shane Ross may make a run of it due to the unpopularity of virtually every TD Dublin Southers choose to elect.

If I were to describe the perspective of Dublin South in a word it would be "moody." I think we'll see 1 FF, 2 FG and 2 Lab if I was putting money on it now, with the FG vote split between Shatter and their celeb after transfers from Mitchell's surplus.

Lame Lantern

hotmail.com wrote: »

That would be a huge upset and it's not even something FF think will happen.

FF got 35% in DL in '07, well below the national average and the latest poll suggests that FF is on 13-14% in Dublin. So there just isn't two FF seats in DL.

Boyd Barrett will do very well. My own prediction is:

1 FG
1 Lab
1 Ind
1 FF - Hanafin

Andrews and Cuffe lose out.

They got 35% in a constituency with 11 candidates three of whom were from Fine Gael and one from the PDs, all of whom Fianna Fáil would have eventually received a huge number of moderate voter transfers. Hanafin got in on the first count, Andrews on the second, Gilmore didn't get in until count 8 or something. Vote management was very well handled as well by the looks of the relative equality in the FF vote share.

EDIT: I also think the second Labour candidate will wipe out Boyd Barrett's chances this time around.

UDAWINNER

thetonynator wrote: »

Looking at the thread title and the response so far, i think you'd be hard pushed to find a constituency that isn't interesting this time round!

Carlow kilkenny- 4 gov td's, prob only one will get back in, with m.j. nolan retiring, and the green vote gone. John mcguinness will have a fight on his hands!

will carlow even have a TD, that is the question. Sinn Fein could get a surprise seat here

bnt

crafty dodger wrote: »

Have FF selected the the candidate(s) yet in Dublin South?
The only one I have heard of is Maria Corrigan

It's not settled yet. The Sunday Business Post thinks Mary Hanafin or Barry Andrews could move in, due to the risk of losing their seats in Dún Laoghaire. Meanwhile, Elections Ireland is speculating that Conor Lenihan will move over from Dublin South West for the FF seat.

Is the RDS in Dublin South? I can smell a bit of horse trading in progress ... like Alex White (Lab) was reported as saying: "we are thinking of renaming Dublin South 'Terminal Two' because there are so many arrivals and departures in the constituency in the last year, year and a half that we don’t know where we’re going".

Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan highlighted Dublin South, Dublin South East and Dún Laoghaire. “I’ve always called them the Bermuda Triangle of Irish politics, as political aircraft seem to take off and disappear there at very regular intervals,” he told his appreciative audience.

Het-Field

Lame Lantern wrote: »

Prediction: Hanafin and Andrews will both get in. They're both very strong on local politics in Dun Laoghaire and hence attractive to transfers while FG is incredibly weak. Gilmore transfers will be strong but I'm not sure a carpet bagger like Bacik will fare well in Dun Laoghaire politics. If Andrews can overcome the initial wave of Gilmore, Boyd Barrett and Cuffe transfers I think he'll pick up virtually everything from Mitchell-O'Connor's elimination once Seán Barrett reaches the quota.

You appear to be 10 years behind the times.

Internal Polling in DL/R would suggest that both may struggle to get in. I believe they will take one seat between them. Gimore will top the poll, with Sean Barrett coming in second place. After that it is between Andrews, Hanifin, Bacik, Mitchell O Conner, Cuffe, Boyd Barrett, and possibly Boyhan for the final seat. Given that FF are at such a low ebb, and polled so poorly in the local elections in DL/R, I think it is a given that they are to lose one seat. Further, the likes of Boyd Barrett enjoy shares of between 3,000-6000 votes. These will be of major significance if he is eliminated, and are likely to push Bacik into contention.

Lame Lantern

Het-Field wrote: »

You appear to be 10 years behind the times.

Internal Polling in DL/R would suggest that both may struggle to get in. I believe they will take one seat between them. Gimore will top the poll, with Sean Barrett coming in second place. After that it is between Andrews, Hanifin, Bacik, Mitchell O Conner, Cuffe, Boyd Barrett, and possibly Boyhan for the final seat. Given that FF are at such a low ebb, and polled so poorly in the local elections in DL/R, I think it is a given that they are to lose one seat. Further, the likes of Boyd Barrett enjoy shares of between 3,000-6000 votes. These will be of major significance if he is eliminated, and are likely to push Bacik into contention.

You got a link to this internal polling?

As I mentioned, no polls so far are taking into account constituency profiles and as in previous elections they're never reflected until the latter weeks of election campaigns. No doubt that Andrews has a mountain to climb, but he's still in with a shout.

In relation to Boyd Barrett, I think his share of the vote will virtually evaporate with the huge surge in Gilmore's vote and the second Labour candidate standing this time around. Same with Cuffe's.

ednwireland

donegal south west - heres hoping mary coughlan is fighting for the third seat (and loses) with 2 candidates running that could split the vote

tipptom

feelingstressed wrote: »

Tipperary North
Maire Hoctor

It's not long ago she was promoted by Bertie to Junior Minister. I believed she had special responsibility for the elderly.
Soon lost her job with some others over the complaints there were far too many junior ministers.

Some people drag up her Primetime interview, realy that's a non-story, nobody cares

When the Minister for Health downgrades a local hospital, it's the local TD who gets the blame which can be unfair realy.
But it's happened and Hoctor from Nenagh has lost a lot of votes.
And now Labour have a new candidate from Portroe, just 10km away.

It's not a high profile casualty but Tipp North without a FF TD is strange, in fact I don't think it's ever happened before!

She voted for the downgrading so i dont think it is unfair and they are talking about closing this down as early as next month which i am sure kelly and coonan will be pouncing on,still anybody i talk to says the rural conservative vote will carry her in and the extra votes from north offaly are apparently to ff s advantage.

Dymo

Tipperary South.

Current they have 1 FG and 2 FF

This time there's 1 FF candidate Martin Mansergh. Very doubtful seat
FG Tom Hayes wshould get elected

Independents Mattie Mcgrath and Seamus Healy will go close.
Others then is Michael Murphy FG or Phil Prendergast Labour.

Out of 3 seats only 1 practically certain but the other 2 are up for grabs.

Het-Field

Lame Lantern wrote: »

You got a link to this internal polling?

As I mentioned, no polls so far are taking into account constituency profiles and as previous elections they're never reflected until the latter weeks of election campaigns. No doubt that Andrews has a mountain to climb, but he's still in with a shout.

In relation to Boyd Barrett, I think his share of the vote will virtually evaporate with the huge surge in Gilmore's vote and the second Labour candidate standing this time around. Same with Cuffe's.

I admit that it is candidate hearsay in terms of internal polling. However, I think it is trustworthy given the extent of FF's collapse in the Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown constituency during the Local and European Elections. IIRC, FF hold 4 of 26 seats on DL/R county council. This position occurred prior to the entrance of the IMF, Black Friday, and the internal collapse of the FF party. Under deteriorated circumstances, what you seem to be proffering is complete and utter rubbish. FF will be lucky to retain one seat in the light of the local elections. Two is just not going to happen. They were at 15% after the last locals, what has changed to make them any more popular ?

This is a very different election to any we have had before. It has been considered that many people have already made up their minds.

Finally, citing "constituency profiles" was the stock and trade of defeated FFers pre local elections. They counted for nothing and many of them were ousted.

In reality, you have not offered one shred of solid evidence why you believe FF may take two seats there.

Dymo

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Should be interesting to see if Averil Power takes a seat in Dublin North East.

I have never heard of her until this Monday and since then she has been on Ireland AM, Vicent Browne and Newstalk. She was appointed to M Martin's frontbench even though she could't get elected to the county council in '09 but now she's being talking about being a TD.

In the interview I saw her in she seems to be spouting on about how she came from Darndale and how she had to work hard to get an education, all this poor mouth stuff, only one of her family to do a leaving cert etc. etc.

I think Michael Martin is doing as John McCain did with a Sarah Palin. Pick some one who will look better than others on posters.

Badabing

Dymo wrote: »

I have never heard of her until this Monday and since then she has been on Ireland AM, Vicent Browne and Newstalk. She was appointed to M Martin's frontbench even though she could't get elected to the county council in '09 but now she's being talking about being a TD.

In the interview I saw her in she seems to be spouting on about how she came from Darndale and how she had to work hard to get an education, all this poor mouth stuff, only one of her family to do a leaving cert etc. etc.

I think Michael Martin is doing as John McCain did with a Sarah Palin. Pick some one who will look better than others on posters.

Pat i thought you learned your lesson

Lame Lantern

I admit that it is candidate hearsay in terms of internal polling. However, I think it is trustworthy given the extent of FF's collapse in the Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown constituency during the Local and European Elections. IIRC, FF hold 4 of 26 seats on DL/R county council. This position occurred prior to the entrance of the IMF, Black Friday, and the internal collapse of the FF party. Under deteriorated circumstances, what you seem to be proffering is complete and utter rubbish. FF will be lucky to retain one seat in the light of the local elections. Two is just not going to happen. They were at 15% after the last locals, what has changed to make them any more popular ?

This is a very different election to any we have had before. It has been considered that many people have already made up their minds.

Finally, citing "constituency profiles" was the stock and trade of defeated FFers pre local elections. They counted for nothing and many of them were ousted.

In reality, you have not offered one shred of solid evidence why you believe FF may take two seats there.

Well I'm not really offering any evidence, simply making some guesstimates.

What I would say to you points is this: Local election results never really feed into election results at a national level. Firstly, the incumbent parties always lose out during midterms which happened to Fianna Fáil even while they were demolishing the other parties in the generals. Secondly, constituency profiles don't enter into local election politics because nobody really knows who their concillors are to begin with.

In a general election environment, personal reaction to individual candidates is a far more significant factor in the results, and both Hanafin and Andrews are well known and well liked in Dun Laoghaire compared to their perenially unpopular FG opponents. Council candidates have no such profiles, no infrastructure for managing votes and communicating regularly with constituents like FF do in Dun Laoghaire, and in local elections people tend to vote on party tickets alone. In the general it will be a mixture of the two mentalities and FF's traditional dominance of retail and personality politics will be alive and well in Dun Laoghaire during the campaign.

I think Hanafin's seat is secure but Andrews is in for a scrap. Like I said, he could quite viably take the last seat.

showit

Dublin South West:

Conor Lenihan & Charlie o Connor - one for sure will go, but more than likely both will lose out -

A lot of Lenihans support comes from Templeogue area - but can see Brian Hayes & Cait Keane of FG taking his votes. He is not strong in Tallaght/Firhouse at the moment

o'Connor is strong in Tallaght - especially with the pensioners - but cant see him getting enough, it will be between himself & Maloney for last spot

- Brian Hayes
- Pat Rabbitte
- Sean Crowe
- o'Connor / Maloney

Het-Field

Lame Lantern wrote: »

Well I'm not really offering any evidence, simply making some guesstimates.

What I would say to you points is this: Local election results never really feed into election results at a national level. Firstly, the incumbent parties always lose out during midterms which happened to Fianna Fáil even while they were demolishing the other parties in the generals. Secondly, constituency profiles don't enter into local election politics because nobody really knows who their concillors are to begin with.

In a general election environment, personal reaction to individual candidates is a far more significant factor in the results, and both Hanafin and Andrews are well known and well liked in Dun Laoghaire compared to their perenially unpopular FG opponents. Council candidates have no such profiles, no infrastructure for managing votes and communicating regularly with constituents like FF do in Dun Laoghaire, and in local elections people tend to vote on party tickets alone. In the general it will be a mixture of the two mentalities and FF's traditional dominance of retail and personality politics will be alive and well in Dun Laoghaire during the campaign.

I think Hanafin's seat is secure but Andrews is in for a scrap. Like I said, he could quite viably take the last seat.

In the UK, the Labour party suffered large losses in Mid-Term election, before being hammered at the General Election, with a loss of 84 seats. Given the times we are in, I would venture that a 2010 Election in the UK might be more comparable then the 2007 Election in Ireland, when we had no idea of the impending economic armageddon which was likely to visit us. Further, while FF were hammered in the 2004 locals, they entered the 2007 election with an ostensibly strong team, which had experience. Further, they were unlikely to ever lose that election considering the large-scale losses endured by FG in 2002. This time FF are entering with a questionably strong team, a Minister For Finance who's banking strategy is much maligned and criticised, and an organisation in disarray.

Again, I feel you are using the old chestnut of "local knowledge", "ground work" etc. That is the FF mantra when facing down the barrel of defeat. I think it would be fair to say, considering the cote share FF got in the DL/R constituency in 2009, that the second seat will not happen, and there is no viability about it at all.

Sparks43

Dublin North Central could be the graveyard for Sean Haughey

Fingers crossed