World Hurdle

hucklebuck

Anyone else think Grand Crus pulled exceptionally hard today and still won on the bridle. I reckon he can bet Big Bucks?

Whaddayiz reckon?

mdwexford

I reckon Pegasus wouldnt beat Big Bucks.

hucklebuck

Think I will get stuck in at 3/1

NaiveMelodies

Gotta have a chance, really impressive today.

Morgans

has a proper engine and is undoubtedly a better jumper than Big Bucks. A proper challenge at least.

hucklebuck

Could be very interesting, he will definately get Big Bucks off the bridal and willl probably be a case of who finds more off it.

Was it just me or did it look like Scu had such a tight hold of him he was going sideways a good bit?

RichieLawlor

That performance today excited me a lot, basically because if I can get Evens Big Bucks I will have my net worth on

Morgans

Yeah. I agree. That is the percentage call, but it should hopefully make one of the best races of the festival. Grand Grus looks a Gold Cup horse of the future.

HigginsJ

Apparently Mourad was fierce impressive during the week. Would be nice to see an Irish challenger for this race

Long Term Louth

Big Bucks was available at evens on course last year with no Grand Grus in the race, I think he may be available at bigger odds closer to the day and wouldnt take the chance ante post 5/6?

RichieLawlor

Long Term Louth wrote: »

Big Bucks was available at evens on course last year with no Grand Grus in the race, I think he may be available at bigger odds closer to the day and wouldnt take the chance ante post 5/6?

Big Bucks was available at evens because all the good things ( Dunguib, Master Minded, rite of passage ect) had all got beaten and the bookies were out to get him.

Also Paul Nicholls said he had worked like a 'hairy goat' the week before.

If Cue Card, Binocular, Time For Rupert, Master Minded ect go in this year he could start 1/2

minty16

Big Bucks is one of my favourite horses. I had a monster bet at 11/10 last year. I didn't back Grand Crus yesterday and didnt think he would make the step up to be honest. You have to ask yourself the question, would Big Bucks have won by so far, or so impressively yesterday? I'm of the negative opinion. Like a previous poster said, from a punters point of view I wouldn't touch him at evens considering I got 11/10 on race day last year. I dont think there is a hope in hell of him going off at 1/2 at this stage, and I don't agree with your reasoning for him going off at Evs last year. Like you said he worked awfully the week before.

UrbanSea

There's no denying how well Grand Crus won yesterday,but let's not all jump the gun.
There's a big difference in a weak Cleeve hurdle and a World Hurdle against the greatest staying hurdler for how long

meriwether

On a strict interpretation of form, his victory yesterday and margin over Restless Harry puts him in the mix when compared to BB's victory margin over RH at Newbury (granted, BB was not extended in any way).

I don't believe the Cleeve was weak, it had everyone in it bar Mourad and had some usegul yardsticks - RH, a returning Bensalem, Fair Along etc.

I think he's a serious contendor, and if forced to choose now, would take his 3/1 over odds against BB.

I didn't fancy him at all yesterday TBH, saw him as an underpriced favourite graduating from handicaps to a decent grade 2. There certainly was confidence in the market, but I don't lay as much store in confidence from the Pipe yard since the son took over as I used to.

But he won as a serious contendor should.

RichieLawlor

UrbanSea wrote: »

There's no denying how well Grand Crus won yesterday,but let's not all jump the gun.
There's a big difference in a weak Cleeve hurdle and a World Hurdle against the greatest staying hurdler for how long

Big Bucks is a machine, He will win the World Hurdle again and all yesterday served to do was give u a better price.

Grands Crus is obviously very good aswell but the staying hurdle division is as weak as it's ever been. He will most likely be second but there is a big difference between beating Knokara Beau and Restless Harry on the bridle and facing BB.

Big Bucks has been travelling much better in his races lately and we know he finds and finds off the bit. How will Grand Crus fare when he has to fight, cause he won't beat BB on the bridle.

UrbanSea

True. If I could get evens BB right now I'd swim in a pool of it.
Stan James have gone 5/6,nearly there.

RichieLawlor

I knows this thread is going to tilt me to death by the time the Festival comes round.

hucklebuck

RichieLawlor wrote: »

That performance today excited me a lot, basically because if I can get Evens Big Bucks I will have my net worth on

You could back both, Grand Crus is evens in the w/o Big Bucks market. I reckon I will take the 3/1 about him and put the same stake on the w/o market, bit of insurance.

RichieLawlor

hucklebuck wrote: »

You could back both, Grand Crus is evens in the w/o Big Bucks market. I reckon I will take the 3/1 about him and put the same stake on the w/o market, bit of insurance.

Lol. I won't be backing anything but Big Bucks, anything else is silly at the prices

Colonel Sanders

You can make the argument that Grand Crus beat a weakish field yesterday but the staying hurdle division has been quite weak for some time. He did it very impressively. His jumping was superb, travelled great and won as he likes on the bridle. Only worry was that he was a bit keen (maybe Pipe will run Lough Derg to set a good pace in March) and connections seem to think he's better on soft ground

While I'm never gonna knock Big Bucks we at least have another contender in what was beginning to look a one horse race.

mdwexford

minty16 wrote: »

Big Bucks is one of my favourite horses. I had a monster bet at 11/10 last year. I didn't back Grand Crus yesterday and didnt think he would make the step up to be honest. You have to ask yourself the question, would Big Bucks have won by so far, or so impressively yesterday? I'm of the negative opinion. Like a previous poster said, from a punters point of view I wouldn't touch him at evens considering I got 11/10 on race day last year. I dont think there is a hope in hell of him going off at 1/2 at this stage, and I don't agree with your reasoning for him going off at Evs last year. Like you said he worked awfully the week before.

Thats not how BB runs, he just does enough every time like a top class staying hurdler should, see Baracouda and Inglis Drever. He will do the exact same to this pretender as he has for the last three seasons.

Evens would be a max bet imo.

Of course his reasoning is correct, the more the bookies are up the more they decide to gamble and take horses on at big meeting like the festivals. Both that and the Nicholls comment influenced the price somewhat.

Morgans

Yeah, but even Baracouda was considered as unbeatable by many when Iris's Gift came along. Big Buck's has been better this year, but the flat spot in his races isn't something you'd chose to see. I don't think he is a great jumper and while he might just grind them all into the ground on the long run to the last, he wouldnt want to be relying on a good jump at the last. Grand Crus and Mourad are very solid horses on the upgrade. Ive watched Grand Crus again and something tells me he will come up short.

mdwexford

Morgans wrote: »

Yeah, but even Baracouda was considered as unbeatable by many when Iris's Gift came along. Big Buck's has been better this year, but the flat spot in his races isn't something you'd chose to see. I don't think he is a great jumper and while he might just grind them all into the ground on the long run to the last, he wouldnt want to be relying on a good jump at the last. Grand Crus and Mourad are very solid horses on the upgrade. Ive watched Grand Crus again and something tells me he will come up short.

I agree, i had a large bet on Baracouda that day at 8/11 and got stung.
Iris's Gift already had a Stayers hurdle second behind him though and was a more credible challenger.

The flat spot doesnt bother me at all, the other two above both did the same at times and they always come out of it. Until the day he doesnt and tails off it wont bother me.

Hes not the most nimble jumper but he gets over them reasonably and with his engine that should be enough.

I think Mourad is hugely over rated, just checked and they gave his last run 167, think they need their heads tested :eek:

Colonel Sanders

I personally think Mourad has no chance. Might finish in the first 4 but surely can't win.

Grand Crus is a different matter altogether. I'm not gonna say something idiotic like he will beat Big Bucks. The truth is Big Bucks has shown absolutely no signs of decline this year (in fact I think he looks as good if not better than ever) but nobody can ignore that we've a new, young pretender on the scene. I was hugely impressed with Grand Crus yesterday. He was awesome and (risky to do this I know) on a line through Fair Along isn't too far behind Big Bucks. Add in that god only knows how much he had in hand as he wasn't asked even the most minute question

Decent discussion on the Betfair forum on this very same topic

Big Bucks is still the "Big Daddy" but I'm not underestimating Grand Crus

mdwexford

Wow that thread makes me sad, people are so fickle.

Morgans

I think Mourad has improved a lot this year. Travels far better throughout his races and has won his races with lots in hand. But, Im not sure that had Scudamore gone for Grand Crus at the weekend, he would have found a lot more. Looked to be going as quick as he could from the 3f to 1f - allowed to relax after. He is a free going sort who is never going to find tons for pressure, does it all on the bridle. In fact, a stronger pace might help him settle.

RichieLawlor

People do realize that the 'flat spot' that they are referring to has not occurred in 18 months and 5 races right

RichieLawlor

mdwexford wrote: »

Wow that thread makes me sad, people are so fickle.

I had to stop reading after some clown said he can not see BB living with him

UrbanSea

I stopped when he was put to within 3-4 lbs of him.

minty16

Do you know what, I think he'll go even money, and I think I will fill my boots after all. Watching a few old races there, and the horse has won me a fortune. Not that it should be classed as a reason for backing a horse but he is a machine. I think it's a match bet. Mourad looks like he could run into a place, but if your getting even money on BB it's nearly even money on a match bet, because he has destroyed nearly everything in the field already. As I said earlier I was talking from a punters point of view. In fairness, when I saw 11/10 BB on the day last year it was one of the most shocking things I've ever seen, so maybe I shouldn't even use that fact to put me off this year.

hucklebuck

Well guys you nearly have your wish Grands Crus is being backed off the boards, in to 9/4 with some firms. You can get Big Bucks at 10/11 with VC.

I read in the post today that they rated Grands Crus @ 171 for Saturday which leaves him not far off Big Bucks highest hurdle rating of 176. I don't know if it was my imagination but for parts of the race he was nearly sideways Scu had such a hold of him.

It's not inconceivable that he beats Big Bucks, for me he is a slicker hurdler than him and he has improved hugely so far this year.

Anyone know what odds he was at before Saturday?

As you know I am in the Grands Crus camp for this but I stopped reading at "I fancy Grand Crus to beat Big Bucks, in fact it may be Big Bucks, like everything else this season, will struggle to get Grand Crus off the bit." He was good but lets not be completely idiotic son.

mdwexford

I watched it again and it was very impressive.

Neither have been gotten to the bottom of yet and in all reality its only guess work at this stage who will win.

Personally i think Big Bucks will do what he always does but Grands Crus does look capable of making him go flat out.

Should be a hell of a match up anyway.

hucklebuck

mdwexford wrote: »

I watched it again and it was very impressive.

Neither have been gotten to the bottom of yet and in all reality its only guess work at this stage who will win.

Personally i think Big Bucks will do what he always does but Grands Crus does look capable of making him go flat out.

Should be a hell of a match up anyway.

I reckon it will be down to who is faster when off the bridle

RichieLawlor

hucklebuck wrote: »

I reckon it will be down to who is faster when off the bridle

It may come down to whether Grand Crus finds anything off the bridle, because we know Big Bucks keeps finding

hucklebuck

RichieLawlor wrote: »

It may come down to whether Grand Crus finds anything off the bridle, because we know Big Bucks keeps finding

It would be fantastic to see them come to the last both on the bridle 20 lengths clear of everything else, would not rule it out either.

minty16

hucklebuck wrote: »

It would be fantastic to see them come to the last both on the bridle 20 lengths clear of everything else, would not rule it out either.

Wouldn't give you even money on that scenario. I think this is likely to happen.. It's such a puzzler. Grand Crus was 4's in PP for most of the week. Has he ever come off the bridle? Thats a serious question btw.

Morgans

I think the amount horses find off the bridle is a bit of a misconception. Off the bridle generally means to me to stop a horse from slowing down rather than quickening. I dont think that Big Bucks could have done much more than what he did last year against Time for Rupert. Had he been leathered for the last two furlongs, he wouldnt have gone much quicker. Maybe value for 2-3 lenghts but no more. That said, I dont think Big Bucks has ever been fully all out over hurdles. I think the day that could have told us a lot was at Aintree when Mighty Man was giving him plenty of it when he crashed at the last.

premierstone

Morgans wrote: »

I think the amount horses find off the bridle is a bit of a misconception. Off the bridle generally means to me to stop a horse from slowing down rather than quickening. I dont think that Big Bucks could have done much more than what he did last year against Time for Rupert. Had he been leathered for the last two furlongs, he wouldnt have gone much quicker. Maybe value for 2-3 lenghts but no more. That said, I dont think Big Bucks has ever been fully all out over hurdles. I think the day that could have told us a lot was at Aintree when Mighty Man was giving him plenty of it when he crashed at the last.

I think your last sentence is the key one here, I think if Grand Crus has him alongsides or 'at it' as you put it at the last I would just have a niggling doubt about Big Bucks jumping, Grand Crus looks the better jumper to me, and off course if he were to maintain hes upward curve of recent times Mourad could be bang there aswell, we could have the race of the meeting* rather than the procession everyone was predicting

*This may or may not be based on anything other than wishfull thinking

RichieLawlor

hucklebuck wrote: »

It would be fantastic to see them come to the last both on the bridle 20 lengths clear of everything else, would not rule it out either.

minty16 wrote: »

Wouldn't give you even money on that scenario. I think this is likely to happen.. It's such a puzzler. Grand Crus was 4's in PP for most of the week. Has he ever come off the bridle? Thats a serious question btw.

I don't think I've ever seen a race where 2 horses are on the bridle at the last. That would say to me that they haven't started racing yet.

Actually I'd go as far as to say it's never happened at the festival

Morgans

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I don't think I've ever seen a race where 2 horses are on the bridle at the last. That would say to me that they haven't started racing yet.

Actually I'd go as far as to say it's never happened at the festival

If you can get a look at Baracouda's first Stayers win, he beat Bannow Bay, who was cruising at the last and made a mistake. It would be a stretch to say that he would have won, given how good Baracouda was, but would have been interesting to have seen Baracouda chase him down up the hill rather than maintaining a nk lead to the line.

minty16

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I don't think I've ever seen a race where 2 horses are on the bridle at the last. That would say to me that they haven't started racing yet.

Actually I'd go as far as to say it's never happened at the festival

Not necessarily haven't started racing. It would be unusual because one horse is very likely to kick on earlier. It very possible due to the style of racing that these horses will be cruising coming down to the last, having hacked by the rest of the field. I think when push comes to shove Big Bucks would find more.

UrbanSea

If both horses went down to the last on the bridle,the loser would have been told he gave the horse a bad ride,and a great ride for the winner.

premierstone

UrbanSea wrote: »

If both horses went down to the last on the bridle,the loser would have been told he gave the horse a bad ride,and a great ride for the winner.

Not at all, I understand where you are coming from but you cant make such a general statement as that, some horses just cant be put in front untill as close to the line as absolutely possible so why if your riding such a horse, a Harchibald type if you like, would you get serious with before the final flight just because something alongside is on the bridle as well?

mdwexford

Morgans example is the best one i can remember alright.

Big Bucks will sit in behind GC and then pounce going up the hill, thats how i see it anyway.

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

I stopped when he was put to within 3-4 lbs of him.

Why? That poster was taking a strict line through Fair Along and acknowledged it was at best an approximate comparison

In fact Timeform only have him 2lbs behind Big Bucks. although Big Bucks has a "+" but Grand Crus has a "p"

I was trying to assess this monday night (must have watched the race at least 5 or 6 times). Going into the race I think Grand Crus was rated 154. I thought he'd get a mid to high 160 mark. Big Bucks swatted Time For Rupert last year who was rated 166 which would mean that Grand Crus would have to improve again to beat the Champ. However this is not impossible given that he hasn't been asked a serious question this year yet

Some people seem to be really under estimating this horse. Don't get me wrong, Big Bucsk is a worthy favourite and if the odds against currently available is there on the day there's only one bet. However I'm sure Big Bucks' connections are surely at least half glancing over their shoulders now

RichieLawlor

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Why? That poster was taking a strict line through Fair Along and acknowledged it was at best an approximate comparison

In fact Timeform only have him 2lbs behind Big Bucks. although Big Bucks has a "+" but Grand Crus has a "p"

I was trying to assess this monday night (must have watched the race at least 5 or 6 times). Going into the race I think Grand Crus was rated 154. I thought he'd get a mid to high 160 mark. Big Bucks swatted Time For Rupert last year who was rated 166 which would mean that Grand Crus would have to improve again to beat the Champ. However this is not impossible given that he hasn't been asked a serious question this year yet

Some people seem to be really under estimating this horse. Don't get me wrong, Big Bucsk is a worthy favourite and if the odds against currently available is there on the day there's only one bet. However I'm sure Big Bucks' connections are surely at least half glancing over their shoulders now

I just wonder what will be there when he has to be shaken up?. Agree that he is on the upgrade alright but BB is only 8 and we have no idea how good he is either to be fair as we still haven't got to the bottom of him.

You never actually know how good a horse is till he gets beaten. But it's shaping up to be a belter

hucklebuck

I am looking forward to this as much as the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle.

I love the way Grands Crus burns off Knockara Beau coming down the hill, hugely impressive, says a lot for me the way he did not look to be travelling that quick but suddenly was 8 lengths clear as they straightened.

Johner

Big Bucks is 11/10 on VC.

UrbanSea

Going to fill my boots. I'm gonna leave it a few days. If I saw 6/4 I will cry with joy.

mdwexford

Big Bucks will be evens on the day.

TheMilkyPirate

Solwhit confirmed for world hurdle.