Egypt to follow Tunisia?

Nodin

Egyptian police have clashed with thousands of protesters demanding the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo for a fourth consecutive day.
Protesters gathered after Friday prayers. Police used tear gas and water cannons to disperse the crowds, who responded by throwing stones.
People also took to the streets in the coastal cities of Suez and Alexandria.
The government has warned of "decisive measures". There has been disruption to internet and mobile phone services.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12303564
I'd imagine they've been hauling the 'usual suspects' out of their beds for the last few days already. I hesitate to guess what "decisive measures" entail.

According the Guardian El Baradei has been arrested.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2011/jan/28/egypt-protests-live-updates#block-22#block-27

Personally, I don't fancy their chances. Having had time to prepare and being pro-active in monitoring dissent anyway, I think its only a matter of time until they clear the streets. T'would be nice to be wrong, however.

Thoughts....?

ISAW

Nodin wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12303564
I'd imagine they've been hauling the 'usual suspects' out of their beds for the last few days already. I hesitate to guess what "decisive measures" entail.

According the Guardian El Baradei has been arrested.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2011/jan/28/egypt-protests-live-updates#block-22#block-27

Personally, I don't fancy their chances. Having had time to prepare and being pro-active in monitoring dissent anyway, I think its only a matter of time until they clear the streets. T'would be nice to be wrong, however.

Thoughts....?

a change in Egypt could be good for Palestine especially the Gaza strip.
also remember it was the regime in egypt that made Qutb and it was Qutb that created Bin Laden.

JustinDee

ISAW wrote: »

a change in Egypt could be good for Palestine especially the Gaza strip.
also remember it was the regime in egypt that made Qutb and it was Qutb that created Bin Laden.

Won't be let happen. They are Saudi Arabia's biggest partner in the region. There is very little good to come out of an unstable Middle East and North Africa, regardless how gleeful it makes Russia, China and Libya.

Nodin

Well, keeping it "stable" hasn't really gifted the world with a bunch of happy-clappy folk, lets face it.....It may well be that change - painful in the short to medium term- is required for progress.

Biggins

Mubarak won't run as quick and the world will stand by while he uses troops to stomp on opposition.

As for an example of the way he treats his people, see: http://wikileaks.ch/cable/2010/02/10CAIRO213.html

Nehaxak

Fantastic coverage of it all, all day on Al Jazeera, quiet amazing to watch it happening, fair play to them all in Egypt.

Nehaxak

Switch on AlJazeera if you have it, fantastic live coverage. Curfew in effect now, their president has ordered the armed forces on to the streets now. Could all kick off horribly in the next while.

Nehaxak

Here ye go, for anyone interested in watching it unfold live and who doesn't have access via satellite or whatever...

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Kendannedy

I'm afraid I'm rather pessimistic. Mubarak is much more firmly entrenched than Ben Ali, and his country has a much more powerful security apparatus than Tunisia.

Nodin

Kendannedy wrote: »

I'm afraid I'm rather pessimistic. Mubarak is much more firmly entrenched than Ben Ali, and his country has a much more powerful security apparatus than Tunisia.

That would be my read of it also. The exact attitude of the army should become more evident soon. I can't imagine it being reform minded.

The next few hours look like they'll decide the next few years for the country. Excellent coverage indeed. Sky are reporting that US tear gas was being used which is obviously being picked up on by the protesters. The question was asked if the US will want Egyptian forces armed by America to begin shooting civilians.

wes

Mubarak is a tyrant, but he seems to far more powerful then Ben Ali, but you never know with these things, maybe the protesters will get rid him.

BlaasForRafa

Rojomcdojo wrote: »

The next few hours look like they'll decide the next few years for the country. Excellent coverage indeed. Sky are reporting that US tear gas was being used which is obviously being picked up on by the protesters. The question was asked if the US will want Egyptian forces armed by America to begin shooting civilians.

If they start shooting they will be using Russian designed guns (although they are licensed produced in Egypt iirc).

I guess the big fear is that islamic fundamentalist nutters will take over Egypt although this eruption (so far anyway) dosen't appear to inspired by religous agitors but to be a populist rising across all levels of society.

edanto

A reporter in Cairo (on the BBC news) has just said that there is contant gunfire in the city, helicopters over the city and just minutes ago, a very large explosion.

She said that the streets are still thronged with people, particularly around the Ministry of Information (sounds kindof Orwellian!) and State TV buildings, which are adjacent.

She said that it seems like the army are using heavier weapons against protestors now that darkness has fallen.

Thanks for the tip about al-jazeera, I'll have a look over there.

Nehaxak

Yeah, different view from AlJazeera who are saying and had pictures to prove, that the protesters are actually embracing the military on the streets and the military have had to get out of their vehicles to personally shake hands with hundreds of protesters before they could move off, taking them over 30 minutes at a time

Hope it stays like that rather than them turning on the people.

Manic Moran

If they start shooting they will be using Russian designed guns (although they are licensed produced in Egypt iirc).

Depends on the unit. Some are equipped with FSU equipment, some with NATO equipment.

The Abrams tank is surprisingly good at non-lethal crowd dispersal, incidently. The thing uses a jet engine, you just can't stand within a few meters of it if they point the exhaust at you. A group of three or four together will clear a road without violence.

NTM

edanto

Manic Moran wrote: »

A group of three or four together will clear a road without violence.

NTM

A jet of superheated exhaust air which could inflict serious burns isn't considered violence?! Off-topic, so let's not pursue it, just surprised at your definition.

Nodin

edanto wrote: »

A jet of superheated exhaust air which could inflict serious burns isn't considered violence?! .

.......compared to using the .50 Browning (I think thats what it is) on the turret, all things being relative.

Manic Moran

edanto wrote: »

A jet of superheated exhaust air which could inflict serious burns isn't considered violence?! Off-topic, so let's not pursue it, just surprised at your definition.

It'll only burn you if you don't get out of the way, it's not an all/nothing event. You'll feel it starting to get warmer, eventually the urge to move starts to get to the point that your self-protection instinct to avoid pain overrides your political intent. Probably less violent than a water cannon, there's no sudden impact effect to knock you over and hit your head.

NTM

Biggins

Interesting article here about the relationship of the USA and Egypt.
It exposes the USA double standards.

JustinDee

What next? Press TV editorial comment? :rolleyes:

Overheal

CNN Headline: Situation has calmed as there is no government

...



I wonder now if Egypt will become vitriolic toward the West and especially the United States for having such close ties with the overthrown government; essentially condoning the oppression. We can go on the TV and shake our fingers saying "Hey man, we didn't really like the extention of Emergency Law for 30 years" but that doesn't change facts for the Egyptian people.

But I tell you what: that was the kind of riot that overthrows a government. It's one that some Irish people used to imagine happening (before the ruling party copped on to what road they were driving down) and makes the Student Protests look like what they were: A day in the park.

edit: The CNN footage on the ground is pretty fascinating. Rioters that were throwing rocks at riot police were talked out of it by peaceful protesters. Thats when the peaceful protesters were seen having conversations with the riot cops and as the reported comments "were conflicted between their loyalty to the state and to the people" as the riot cops pull back and allow protesters to walk on as they stop throwing rocks.

SamHarris

Biggins wrote: »

Interesting article here about the relationship of the USA and Egypt.
It exposes the USA double standards.

Mark LeVine is childish, I can tell the stance he will take on a subject before I read his article based on those involved, regarldess of the complexity of a given situation. Thats an indication of a pre-set paradigm, not reasoned analysis.

From AJ too, this seems to indicate the US is doing much more to promote democracy in Egypt than they are given credit for:

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/2011128202213106335.html

Note the final section.

caseyann

Nehaxak wrote: »

Yeah, different view from AlJazeera who are saying and had pictures to prove, that the protesters are actually embracing the military on the streets and the military have had to get out of their vehicles to personally shake hands with hundreds of protesters before they could move off, taking them over 30 minutes at a time

Hope it stays like that rather than them turning on the people.

What are you talking about? Its all peaceful?

Pygmalion

caseyann wrote: »

What are you talking about? Its all peaceful?

From what I've read the police have mainly been the ones using unnecessary force, and in a lot of cases the army are actually keeping them in line (as well as the protesters).

Certainly most of the pictures I've seen of the violence have been riot police clashing with protesters, most of the pictures containing the army seem quite peaceful in comparison.

Nehaxak

caseyann wrote: »

What are you talking about? Its all peaceful?

Yep. The violence and killings were carried out (from all evidence available thus far) by the police, firing point blank with rubber bullets, live rounds and driving directly at and over people protesting in their armoured vans.
Last night the military were actually engaged in a fire fight with one of the police stations who had been randomly firing on people who were just cheering on the military.

A large number of protesters also created a ring around the local museum in Cairo to protect it from looting, as it was beside the headquarters of the NDP which had been burned down and looting was taking place of what was remaining from same.

I personally feel the military have not fired on or been more violent toward protesters because Mubarak has come under some international pressure not to up the violence level against his people. It is however, I would feel, only a matter of time before he cracks and orders a stricter crackdown on the protests. The people I'd say are hoping the military (who are all just very low paid conscripts anyway) would side with them for complete regime change rather than take the presidents side and let loose into the crowds.

If the ordinary people in a country are out protesting for regime change and want democracy then that should absolutely be embraced by the international community and enough pressure from same put on Mubarak to step down and allow proper democratic political change to take place. He's only hanging in there now as a show of strength and using his security forces against the people as a show of force. Things will never be the same there now after this, no matter how much Mubarak denies it.

AlJazeera also reporting now that senior ranking officials in the army are saying to them that they want Mubarak to step down and that they are there to protect the people. So hopefully it stays that way and they do backup the people to help toward a regime change and proper democracy.

Cannibal Ox

I hope they do it and do it before violence gets out of control. No idea what'd happen after, I haven't seen or read anything about the Muslim Brotherhood who'd be, presumably, the worry of the US/EU, but it's interesting that the protestors are supposed to be largely young, unemployed, well educated men.

There was a good article on the New York Times about Al Jazeera's coverage of Tunisia and Egypt.

ei.sdraob

This revolution and the internet being cut of is costing moi money
Hope they get their democracy asap it be good for everyone

BlaasForRafa

Cannibal Ox wrote: »

I hope they do it and do it before violence gets out of control. No idea what'd happen after, I haven't seen or read anything about the Muslim Brotherhood who'd be, presumably, the worry of the US/EU, but it's interesting that the protestors are supposed to be largely young, unemployed, well educated men.

There was a good article on the New York Times about Al Jazeera's coverage of Tunisia and Egypt.

One certainly dosen't get the feeling that Al Jazeera are entirely objective in their reportage. There is an agenda there plus all rolling news channels love conflict, its what they thrive on. If there was peace in the middle east Al Jazeera would be out of business.

On a tangental note, the Iranian regime has managed to sneak in the execution of a dutch woman during all the hubbub in Egypt http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12314886

Manic Moran

The people I'd say are hoping the military (who are all just very low paid conscripts anyway) would side with them for complete regime change rather than take the presidents side and let loose into the crowds.

When you get down to it, the military are just Egyptian people in a brown uniform. The police are just Egyptian people in a blue uniform. If the individual policemen have shown generally little compunction about using force against the crowd, I see little reason to believe that the individual soldiers will be any more or less likely to do so if they got the instruction to.

NTM

JustinDee

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

On a tangental note, the Iranian regime has managed to sneak in the execution of a dutch woman during all the hubbub in Egypt http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12314886

Interesting. Dadah is death and all that but what has this to do with the trouble in North Africa?? Madmanijad's country isn't the only nation to execute people on drugs charges.
Start on a thread on it or something. It has sweet eff all to do with this. Nothing "tangental" in it at all.

BluePlanet

Manic Moran wrote: »

When you get down to it, the military are just Egyptian people in a brown uniform. The police are just Egyptian people in a blue uniform. If the individual policemen have shown generally little compunction about using force against the crowd, I see little reason to believe that the individual soldiers will be any more or less likely to do so if they got the instruction to.

NTM

Maybe that's because you didn't know that the Egyptian army is full of conscripts.

"18-30 years of age for male conscript military service; service obligation 12-36 months, followed by a 9-year reserve obligation (2008)"

BlaasForRafa

JustinDee wrote: »

Interesting. Dadah is death and all that but what has this to do with the trouble in North Africa?? Madmanijad's country isn't the only nation to execute people on drugs charges.
Start on a thread on it or something. It has sweet eff all to do with this. Nothing "tangental" in it at all.

It is certainly tangental, the Iranian regime uses conflict in other areas of the mid-east to sneak in executions and repression while the media is focused on other areas of the middle east.

And don't fool yourself that there was anything factual in these drug charges, she was executed because she protested against the Iranian dictatorship.

JustinDee

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

It is certainly tangental, the Iranian regime uses conflict in other areas of the mid-east to sneak in executions and repression while the media is focused on other areas of the middle east.

And don't fool yourself that there was anything factual in these drug charges, she was executed because she protested against the Iranian dictatorship.

What utter tosh. The Iranians do this regardless of what is going on around them. I don't know what she did and I'd safely bet neither do you.
Nothing to do with the thread subject apart from the word 'dictatorship'

Nodin

Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak has named intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as his first ever vice-president as he struggles to regain control of the country.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12316465

Presumably in this era of austerity they've decided to combine the job of the man who compiles the list of people who might be worth detaining and torturing and that of the man who ticks off the specific names to be hauled in the truck.

wes

I have to say I am very surprised that protests are still going on. Maybe the Egyptians will pull this off, and get rid of the Mubarak.

Oracle

I cannot believe Mubarak is refusing to resign, if he had any respect or concern for the Egyptian people, he would resign immediately. A deeply unpopular leader, desperately clinging on to power, despite widespread protests, sounds familiar ....

partyatmygaff

Oracle wrote: »

I cannot believe Mubarak is refusing to resign, if he had any respect or concern for the Egyptian people, he would resign immediately. A deeply unpopular leader, desperately clinging on to power, despite widespread protests, sounds familiar ....

Are you comparing Mubarak to Cowen?

Really?

Manic Moran

BluePlanet wrote: »

Maybe that's because you didn't know that the Egyptian army is full of conscripts.

"18-30 years of age for male conscript military service; service obligation 12-36 months, followed by a 9-year reserve obligation (2008)"

No, I'm quite familiar with this fact. Are you suggesting that non-conscripts are not Egyptians?

NTM

Corsendonk

Saudi royal family seems to be in a flap, they must be running out of space for ex dictators and their families. They seem to be concerned about their oil business through the Suez, they never actually shown concern for their fellow Arabs have they?

Voice of America

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah criticized the protesters and expressed support for Mr. Mubarak. The state-run Saudi Press Agency quoted King Abdullah calling the organizers of the demonstrations "infiltrators" and accusing them of trying to destabilize Egypt in the name of freedom of expression. The report said the Saudi king made the comments in a phone call to the Egyptian president.

Both Saudi Arabia and Egypt are key allies of the United States, which has called on President Mubarak to fulfill his promises of reform and refrain from violence against the demonstrators.

Pygmalion

Al Jazeera reporter posted that 6000 have escaped from Abu Zaabel prison about 45 minutes ago.
After an earlier one saying that 1000 people were storming a prison and that a senior guard was killed.

BluePlanet

Manic Moran wrote: »

Are you suggesting that non-conscripts are not Egyptians?
NTM

No, i'm suggesting that conscripts are more likely to side with public sentiment than the police are.

USA is pretending to sit on the fence here but fact is they've supported Mubarak for a long time.
I'd say they are very afraid of making the same mistakes they made in Iran in 1979.
I really enjoy seeing these popular uprisings against USA's pet dictators.

RussellTuring

Oracle wrote: »

I cannot believe Mubarak is refusing to resign, if he had any respect or concern for the Egyptian people ....

...then these protests wouldn't be taking place. Not criticising your post, just making a point. Although if you are trying to compare the situations in Egypt and Ireland, then you need some perspective.

JustinDee

BluePlanet wrote: »

USA is pretending to sit on the fence here but fact is they've supported Mubarak for a long time.
I'd say they are very afraid of making the same mistakes they made in Iran in 1979.
I really enjoy seeing these popular uprisings against USA's pet dictators.

Why do you enjoy them?
If a regime isn't backed by the US, its generally backed by someone else. Look at Nasser for example. Soviet backed. Iran? China and Russia.
If it isn't backed by anyone there is a power vacuum a la Afghanistan following the Soviet pullout.
Simple geopolitical template for the wider region really. Enjoyable though? Hardly.

BluePlanet

JustinDee wrote: »

Why do you enjoy them?

Are you kidding?

We've got USA: world premier super-bully, that commits mass violence against other people around the world, constantly promotes violence, yet talks a load of complete crap about "human rights" and "freedom" and all this do-gooder rubbish that is a total hypocrisy.

And now they are loosing one of their favorite torture destinations because a load of down trodden people have finally taken to the steets.

It's brilliant, i just hope the people of Egypt are successful in toppling this corrupt regime.
People power FTW.

JustinDee

BluePlanet wrote: »

Are you kidding?

We've got USA: world premier super-bully, that commits mass violence against other people around the world, constantly promotes violence, yet talks a load of complete crap about "human rights" and "freedom" and all this do-gooder rubbish that is a total hypocrisy.

And now they are loosing one of their favorite torture destinations because a load of down trodden people have finally taken to the steets.

It's brilliant, i just hope the people of Egypt are successful in toppling this corrupt regime.
People power FTW.

No. I'm not kidding in the slightest.
To think that is "People Power" and what follows is "People Power", is either just naive or plain blind.

The people who tend to waft about 'US backing' usually forget or ignore the alternatives. They probably wouldn't know a lynchpin-state if it danced in front of them shouting "I'm a Lynchpin-State".

BluePlanet

JustinDee wrote: »

The people who tend to waft about 'US backing' usually forget or ignore the alternatives.

Oh i tend to think the Egyptian public are best placed to determine their best interests, not the usa.

JustinDee

BluePlanet wrote: »

Oh i tend to think the Egyptian public are best placed to determine their best interests, not the usa.

I guess you don't see what will most likely follow.
Look to their immediate west and watch.

SamHarris

BluePlanet wrote: »

Are you kidding?

We've got USA: world premier super-bully, that commits mass violence against other people around the world, constantly promotes violence, yet talks a load of complete crap about "human rights" and "freedom" and all this do-gooder rubbish that is a total hypocrisy.

And now they are loosing one of their favorite torture destinations because a load of down trodden people have finally taken to the steets.

It's brilliant, i just hope the people of Egypt are successful in toppling this corrupt regime.
People power FTW.

Numerous cables have shown that they were supporting democracy in Egypt actually, foreign relations is not a zero sum game.

Typical fever dream of the far left - all peoples are just waiting to rise up and turn on the US. Guaranteed, barring a full on Islamic revolution alá Iran a new democratic Egypt will be allied to the US.

gurramok

JustinDee wrote: »

I guess you don't see what will most likely follow.
Look to their immediate west and watch.

SamHarris wrote: »

Numerous cables have shown that they were supporting democracy in Egypt actually, foreign relations is not a zero sum game.

Typical fever dream of the far left - all peoples are just waiting to rise up and turn on the US. Guaranteed, barring a full on Islamic revolution alá Iran a new democratic Egypt will be allied to the US.

So what? Democracy is better than dictators using riot police to shoot unarmed people. If the people vote on a different path in an election, that's their choice, not the Americans.

Or is it a case of supporting democracy when only the result suits?

JustinDee

gurramok wrote: »

So what? Democracy is better than dictators using riot police to shoot unarmed people. If the people vote on a different path in an election, that's their choice, not the Americans.

Or is it a case of supporting democracy when only the result suits?

Thats the basic mindset behind any country's foreign policy actually and the reason why many countries involved with Egypt should be worried that it doesn't go down a certain route. This is the same reason that Tunisia's neighbours in Southern Europe and North Africa are rightly worried.
Anyone who thinks its going to be a utopian democratic paradise that doesn't affect their own country is wildly off the mark.
This is why a Lynchpin state is called as it is.