Red Emperor Resources (RMP.asx)

zagamuffin

Oil or water

Oil or water


Oil or water

Oil or water

Oil or water

Oil or water

⛽ or ðŸŠ

turbobaby

Well, they have already told us that they have oil in both wells, so it's just a matter of finding out it is it is commercial.

On a separate note, I spoke to a Somali former student of mine early last week and he said that he has huge hopes for the country now that things are moving forward. He is from Mogadishu and says that there has actually been quite a lot of progress there since last year and is hoping to return.

He was surprised when I mentioned that I heard of the probability of oil in Puntland. He was well aware of it too, not that that actually means that it is true, but it was interesting to hear him talking about it as if it was fact.

One thing that struck me was that a Somali friend of his that he met here (same class) is from another tribe with whom his tribe have traditionally been in conflict with. I asked him what the difference is between them and he said they were ethnically the exact same. They basically could not be friends in Somalia but here it is fine. Very odd and he thought so too.

delad

if there is commerical flow rates what are the chances of nationalisation?

turbobaby

I would say close to zero in the near term. They have no experience whatsoever with exploration and extraction and absolutely require the private sector to handle this.

If there is oil, RMP will long be taken out before any risk of nationalisation starts to appear.

Grecco

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=20120723073126P4294

Turns out to be water and not Oil, I`m gutted as I thought this one was going to be Oil

Thargor

Puntlands pretty much fcuked now I think, going to forget about RRL until Trinidad later in the year gives a chance to get out, HRN this afternoon isnt going to be pretty for holders...

Thargor

That is to say if its water at the main target aswell, which they havent drilled to yet...

Grecco

Thargor wrote: »

Puntlands pretty much fcuked now I think, going to forget about RRL until Trinidad later in the year gives a chance to get out, HRN this afternoon isnt going to be pretty for holders...

I wouldn't be selling out just yet. Its a setback for sure but there's still 400 meters yet to be drilled and S1 has still to be tested.
The Nugaal block is to be drilled in September and this was proven to have plenty Oil by Conoco.
Conoco hit very good oil/gas shows in at least 2 wells in the Nugaal province. At least one was probably commercial but the drillstring got stuck numerous times and there were further rumors of excessive pressures. The well never hit TD by several hundred meters. They then drilled another 1-2 wells and had to run before it got too dangerous due to the war. The Nugaal well is said to have found around 90 million barrels. The main prospect, though, was one a little west of the Nugaal well which notes from a Conoco meeting detailing it was targeting 500-700 million barrels of oil.

Thargor

Nah not selling, Ill let it ride and see how the story plays out, HRN and RRL were only punts for me at this stage.

What do you think of the conspiracy theories that all this testing of an irrelevant section was deliberate SP management?

Grecco

Thargor wrote: »

Nah not selling, Ill let it ride and see how the story plays out, HRN and RRL were only punts for me at this stage.

What do you think of the conspiracy theories that all this testing of an irrelevant section was deliberate SP management?

Looks like they wanted to give themselves time to sell out but the volumes don`t suggest that was the case. And yes they are only Punts but they shouldn`t hurt your portfolio if you de-risk. But I have to say its hard to de-risk when they let out an RNS stating a 50m gross section of Oil/water found :rolleyes:
Anyway looks like this one can go on the back-burner now for a couple of months

Thargor

Further collapse this morning, touched 8.6 at one point, currently down 11%...

AP_MAN

no duster RNS yet, but market is reacting they know it already, both RMP 7.5 and HRN .49 the sp is tanking..

turbobaby

CRAZY action today. Bid/Ask at 9.0 9.5 after hitting 7.2 earlier this morning

Thargor

Up over 10p now, +33%! Very interested to see what HRN does at 14:30.

AP_MAN

HRN pre-market bid/ask same 58c ie +11%,
interesting day ahead, is it a strike? we will know soon, tight your seat belts

Thargor wrote: »

Up over 10p now, +33%! Very interested to see what HRN does at 14:30.

Thargor

Id say it would be doing more if it was good news leaking, probably just a little bit of correction, or a pump to let a few get out.

delad

the stocks down about 70% in the space of a month, given its current valuation it wouldn't take much buying to move this stock, I doubt its good news just someone taking a punt

turbobaby

Thar, I agree. You only need to look at the graph to see big rises followed by just as big or bigger drops. Whether it's pump and dump or HRN managing expectations with those ambiguous RNSs I don't know, but I think it is clear that they do not want to announce failure or success before the President is in place.

I have a good feeling here but in no way counting any chickens. The rise on RMP was on very high volume!

neil.p.b

Not sure what to make of Friday. Before it the price movement of RMP was making me slightly more bullish. You only need to look at big strikes from other companies to see that before any strike announcement the price was slowly walked down over the preceding couple of weeks (RKH, GKP, XEL, LOGP, CAZA, BOR - though that turned out not to be commercial in the end ).

In the case of dusters the price again tends to slowly fall over the preceding couple of weeks but the day before the duster announcement the price rises (CHAR, XTR, BOR, RMP). This is what Friday looked like but as Turbo pointed out the volume indicates different. On the dusters mentioned above the preceding days rise was not backed with volume.

This is also not a 'pump and dump'. A usual P&D is seen after a long period of accumulation in a price range with low to moderate volume. A good, but not fundamentally changing piece of news comes out and the price is pumped over a couple of days. These days are accompanied with high volume where the earlier accumulators pass their stock onto the excited PIs are buying into all the hype (RRL, SOLO, SER).

Monday will be telling. Slightly bullish atm.

Neil

turbobaby

Neil or anyone else, could you tell me how the MMs go about walking the price down to get their hands on more shares prior to good news?

Do they sell and buy to each other at lower and lower prices, fill L2 with scary looking sell orders and then mop up the excess PI sells over buys that come about because of fear and panic?

Surely they could get caught with their pants down if a serious PI was to call their bluff and buy a shed load of shares.

I have heard so much about MMs' tree shakes, stop loss triggering etc, but I always thought it was a lame excuse used by PIs to justify the drop in price.

neil.p.b

turbobaby wrote: »

Neil or anyone else, could you tell me how the MMs go about walking the price down to get their hands on more shares prior to good news?

Do they sell and buy to each other at lower and lower prices, fill L2 with scary looking sell orders and then mop up the excess PI sells over buys that come about because of fear and panic?

Surely they could get caught with their pants down if a serious PI was to call their bluff and buy a shed load of shares.

I have heard so much about MMs' tree shakes, stop loss triggering etc, but I always thought it was a lame excuse used by PIs to justify the drop in price.

Well the MMs set the price, not PIs. Thats why volume s always so key, big volume is ALWAYS due to MMs/professional money, PIs can't compete and control prices if the the MMs don't want them to . When you get important stages of the drill you'll never get a lot of buying from PIs that would lead to big volume, PIs are always the last to know anything. They'll never be enough buy volume to stop the MMs from slowly walking down the price as they wish. A few bad rumours around the BBs and the price dropping usually does the trick, it's not too difficult for them.

MMs will use tree shakes to catch out those on leverage usually - just look at RKH post discovery, within an hour it dropped 240->60-->240 as far as i can remember, just to fill a gap, there was obviously a huge amount of people burnt. This sort of thing is restricted to AIM more so though, it's a dirty market and one in which MMs will find it easy to take advantage of PIs because most of them are complete amateurs just taking a punt and get scared with tree-shakes and burnt when using leverage.

turbobaby wrote: »

I have heard so much about MMs' tree shakes, stop loss triggering etc, but I always thought it was a lame excuse used by PIs to justify the drop in price.

A lot of the time it is!

There's obviously a lot more to how exactly MMs and professionals set prices but you'd be better up reading up on it properly than me trying to write a big post on it!!

GLA - hopefully tomorrow pulls a rabbit out of the hat for us.

AP_MAN

over 6 times of the average volume already, looking good...

up 6.5%

delad

AP_MAN wrote: »

over 6 times of the average volume already, looking good...

up 6.5%

Its only up 2.6% now. Small cap oil explorers will always fluctuate by up to 20% on a normal day, it doesn't mean anything.

alanceltic

neil.p.b wrote: »

GLA - hopefully tomorrow pulls a rabbit out of the hat for us.

Im still anxiously waiting for the rabbit, if Shabeel North is a duster I can use my HRN share certs for toilet paper. Volumes in HRN are nothing significant today but its still managing to creep +8% so far. RRL is proving to be very stubborn!!!!! Anyone any hopes on an RNS this evening/tomorrow?

Thargor

Seriously tempted to just pull the couple of grand I have left in HRN now and keep it for other opportunities that may pop up, I just cant decide what to do to be honest.

Grecco

alanceltic wrote: »

Im still anxiously waiting for the rabbit, if Shabeel North is a duster I can use my HRN share certs for toilet paper. Volumes in HRN are nothing significant today but its still managing to creep +8% so far. RRL is proving to be very stubborn!!!!! Anyone any hopes on an RNS this evening/tomorrow?

I am of the opinion that it will be a duster, but Horn petroleum are fully funded for this drill, a possible third drill at shabeel and then Nugaal so I don`t see the SP collapse that you foresee. On the other hand I think RMP will tank as it will have to raise funds to participate in Nugaal. RRL wont do much better as its awash with shares in issue so that could head to 3p on a duster.
As for an RNS I think its too early

turbobaby

Grecco wrote: »

I am of the opinion that it will be a duster, but Horn petroleum are fully funded for this drill, a possible third drill at shabeel and then Nugaal so I don`t see the SP collapse that you foresee. On the other hand I think RMP will tank as it will have to raise funds to participate in Nugaal. RRL wont do much better as its awash with shares in issue so that could head to 3p on a duster.
As for an RNS I think its too early

Grecco, I think you have it wrong there! It is HRN that will need to go back to the market. Well, go back to the Lundin Group to finance further exploration.

Horn Petroleum wrote:

As a result of the cost overruns, the Company plans to raise CAD$15.0 million dollars subsequent to March 31, 2012 via a private placement equity financing (This happened, Turbo). This funding is anticipated to provide the Company with sufficient funds to meet its portion of the expected costs associated with completing the drilling and testing of the Shabeel- 1 and Shabeel-North wells.

However, the Company’s working capital position may not provide it with sufficient capital resources in the event of significant cost overruns, (see “Interestingly” above) or to meet additional exploration, appraisal and development expenditures.

To finance its future acquisition, exploration, development and operating costs, Horn may require financing from external sources, including issuance of new shares, issuance of debt or executing working interest farmout or disposition arrangements.

RMP has far more cash relative to the stake in the basins. RMP currently have about $17-19m in the treasure chest.

If you think SN will be a duster you are far better being out now, but if you insist on holding you should be in RMP (with respect to cash levels you refer to).

Grecco

turbobaby wrote: »

If you think SN will be a duster you are far better being out now, but if you insist on holding you should be in RMP (with respect to cash levels you refer to).

I am out, I got stopped out of the last of my positions at $82c. I`m happy with that as preserving my capital is key. I still have all my original investments plus some profits taken a few weeks back

zagamuffin

So will a new government bring us 20 m +


Monday/tues could tell a lot...

Grecco

Second drill is a duster, hard luck guys