General Election 2011 - Dublin Central thread

Travel is good

I just wanted to start this thread as I want to be very careful who I vote for.

So far the candidates that I know of are:

Mary Fitzpatrick (FF)
Cyprian Brady (FF)
Paschal Donohoe (FG)
Joe Costello (Labour)
Mary Lou McDonald (SF)
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind)
Christy Burke (Ind)

Does anyone else know who will be putting themselves forward for election?

I know we will get the government that we deserve, that's why I will be very careful in examining each candidate's policies.

cancercowboy

I would feel sorry for any Fianna Fáil candidate knocking on doors in that constituency. Let me give you a quote I heard last night "if Fianna Fáil knock on my door looking for a vote, they'll get a bullet."

I think there is one more labour candidate for Dublin Central, a woman. I don't know her name.

LeixlipRed

One chap told in Lucan last night told me he had a bucket of piss out the back for FF canvassers. Exagerating I'm sure but I quickly explained I was not a FF canvasser and slowly backed away

d'Oracle

Cllr. Aine Clancy

steof1984

Aine Clancy is also running, she is the second labour candidate

Travel is good

cancercowboy wrote: »

I would feel sorry for any Fianna Fáil candidate knocking on doors in that constituency. Let me give you a quote I heard last night "if Fianna Fáil knock on my door looking for a vote, they'll get a bullet."

I think there is one more labour candidate for Dublin Central, a woman. I don't know her name.

Thanks for that. I wasn't sure if there was a second Labour candidate. I think it might be Aine Clancy, she is a Dublin City councillor at present.

I think you're right about the FF candidates. If they are wise, they will not canvas door to door, just do a leaflet drop and run! On second thoughts, they shouldn't even waste their money printing off leaflets as there probably won't be any point.

So who are the alternatives then? I'm not inspired at the moment by any of the remaining candidates.


Edit: Thanks for the info. about Aine Clancy, I must have been posting at the same time!

Badabing

1FF depends if Bertie machine roll behind Brady but deffo 1 FF, 1Lab 1 FG 1 IND. Mary Lou to lose out again due to Burke and O'Suillivan taking her votes.

Travel is good

Good prediction, that's pretty accurate. Though I think there might be a possibility of a
2nd Labour candidate getting elected.

Mary lou McDonald didn't do so well the last time she ran in this constituency, so I'm not sure of her chances now.

We got the 1st election letter from Paschal Donohoe yesterday.

ArmaniJeanss

Badabing wrote: »

deffo 1 FF, 1Lab 1 FG 1 IND.

I don't think theres a definite seat here for FF, theres potentially a very hard fought Seat no 4 here for them if they battle for every vote and transfer and put whats left of the party machine behind one candidate.

Shoe-ins. Costello, Donohue, O'Sullivan.
4th seat a tight battle between the two Marys and possibly Aine Clancy depending how well Costello transfers. Cyprian is dead in the water.

Bit of a bell weather constituency for FF, if they can sneak the 4th seat in constituencies like this they can overcome their predicted low percentage first prefence vote and retain 40+ seats. If they fail then the sub30, sub25 mark becomes a possibility.

Travel is good

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Shoe-ins. Costello, Donohue, O'Sullivan.
4th seat a tight battle between the two Marys and possibly Aine Clancy depending how well Costello transfers. Cyprian is dead in the water.

I agree with you regarding FF, I don't think Cyprian will get elected. I predict Mary Fitzpatrick will, she has been more active in the area anyway. Didn't she get more votes than Cyprian in the last election? Labour might do well this time, with the possibility of a second seat.

mikemac

1 Costello
2 O'Sullivan
3 Donohue after two narrow failures
4 Brady or Fitzpatrick? I reckon Cyprian Brady, FF will take one seat for sure
5 Clancy as Joe Costello's running mate

Bottle_of_Smoke

Think its possible FF won't get a seat. The Bertie factor was a fairly big thing last time.

I think it will be Costello, Donaghoe, Clancy & O'Sullivan

If Burke wasn't running I think Mary Lou would have gotten in but they'll just split each other's votes. Perhaps an outside chance Burke could take some of O'Sullivan's votes though.
Very hard constituency to call.

mikemac

Yep, Burke and Fitzpatrick are over in west side, Cabra direction.

Christy Burke has a profile.
But when I lived in Dublin Central it was a big issue that Mary Lou didn't even live in the area! Maybe it should not matter for national elections but it does to voters.

And now Christy Burke and Mary Lou might wipe each other out, cannibalize I think is the term.

I definitely think FF will take a seat in Dublin Central. But there was a time when taking just one seat in a five seater was seen as a failure for FF

Travel is good

There's only 4 seats in this constituency though, so that's why the final seat will be a tough one for candidates.

I'm still not convinced about Cyprian Brady, although I hear he is very experienced, from working with the Bertie machine. Not sure if that is a good thing though, at least Mary Fitzpatrick hasn't been tainted by Bertiegate so far.

I think Paschal Donohoe will be a strong candidate, though I hope FG have good people on the finance/economics side, as this country is going to need it.

I have the feeling Labour will do well also. I presume at least one Independent will be elected, possibly Maureen O'Sullivan.

I can see a bitter battle ahead!

mikemac

Travel is good wrote: »

There's only 4 seats in this constituency though,

I'm happy to be corrected but is it not a five seater?

Travel is good

My apologies, feelingstressed, I didn't mean to correct you!

I took the information from Wikipedia that it was a 4 seater constituency. I know, I shouldn't always trust the info. there.

Anyway guys, have a look at this, I found it when I was trying to verify whether or not Dublin Central is a 4 seater:

http://www.politicalworld.org/showthread.php?t=6641

It makes for interesting reading. I hadn't realised how close Paschal Donohoe was in the last GE 2007. I know Cyprian Brady got the 2nd preference & others from Bertie Ahern, so that was how he got elected in the end.

So it's looking much better for Paschal now.

I'd love if some of the candidates came on here & talked to us!

mikemac

Actually you may be correct, I assumed it was a five seater and now I don't know

As I posted before, I'm happy to be corrected

Is it 4 seats or 5 seats?

Travel is good

OK, feelingstressed, I'm trying to find a more official sources this time:

http://www.oireachtas.ie/members-hist/default.asp?housetype=0&HouseNum=30&ConstID=73&disp=mem

According to this website, Dublin Central was a 4 seater for the 2007 General Election anyway. Maureen O'Sullivan replaced Tony Gregory, so that's why you see 5 names.

Usually the number of candidates is based on the population numbers in the constituency. The population in Dublin Central has dropped slightly, so that is why we went back to being a 4 seater constituency. It may well have been a 5 seater in recent years. But as far as I know, for the purpose of the 2011 election, it is a 4 seater.

Can anyone else verify that is the case, as I'm beginning to doubt myself now?

mikemac

Travel is good wrote: »

as I'm beginning to doubt myself now?

Me too
I'd be very happy to have this resolved

Magi11

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I don't think theres a definite seat here for FF, theres potentially a very hard fought Seat no 4 here for them if they battle for every vote and transfer and put whats left of the party machine behind one candidate.

Shoe-ins. Costello, Donohue, O'Sullivan.
4th seat a tight battle between the two Marys and possibly Aine Clancy depending how well Costello transfers. Cyprian is dead in the water.

Bit of a bell weather constituency for FF, if they can sneak the 4th seat in constituencies like this they can overcome their predicted low percentage first prefence vote and retain 40+ seats. If they fail then the sub30, sub25 mark becomes a possibility.

All will depend on whether Bertie's 12k first pref votes from 2007 were a personal vote or for FF. As I suspect the former, FF will not be in contention for the last seat. But it is as stated one of the indicators for the election.

Sir Oxman

It's a 4-seater.


Costello (Lab) definite
Donohoe (FG) definite


I have a sneaky feeling Fitzpatrick (FF) will grab the fourth, she increased her vote last year in the locals and is very much on the anti-Ahern wing of FF. Funnily enough, Fitzpatrick, although only a Cllr, has been named FF Spokesperson on Housing & Urban Development as part of their new front bench today - so we can see which way that wind is blowing in DubCentral in regards to who out of FF, is persona non-grata and perhaps the importance FF are attaching to getting a seat here.

I think SF's MLMcD has a good chance of a seat, she's a resident and very strong in the Cabra end (with AFAIK, Nicky Kehoe's support base behind her) and her HQ is in the Ballybough end. I think she'll squeeze Clancy Lab (Cabra end) for the second leftwing seat here.

I've heard the O Sullivan/Gregory bandwagon is nearly all out of steam? and Burke has nothing behind him.

So, I think:

Lab 1
FG 1
SF 1
FF 1 unfortunately (though it could be O Sullivan, hard to call)

mikemac

4 seater so? I'll revise my predictions

Costello
O'Sullivan
Donohue
An almighty scrap between Clancy/Fitzpatrick and Brady for the 4th seat.
I see either Aine Clancy or Cyprian Brandy taking it

Mary Lou not a factor

Travel is good

gambiaman wrote: »

I think SF's MLMcD has a good chance of a seat, she's a resident and very strong in the Cabra end (with AFAIK, Nicky Kehoe's support base behind her) and her HQ is in the Ballybough end. I think she'll squeeze Clancy Lab (Cabra end) for the second leftwing seat here.

Oh, I didn't realise Mary Lou was a Dublin Central resident, I was wondering why they were parachuting her in. In previous elections Nicky Kehoe was a strong contender, so SF are going all out with a high profile candidate. Though seriously, I don't think (& hope) she won't get elected.

Interesting news about Mary F and the FF front bench.

Glad to see a good selection of female candidates.

So the battle is on.....

mikemac

gambiaman wrote: »

I think SF's MLMcD has a good chance of a seat, she's a resident and very strong in the Cabra end

You sure? As she was a parachute candidate last time. And Irish people don't take kindly to that

Sir Oxman

Travel is good wrote: »

Oh, I didn't realise Mary Lou was a Dublin Central resident, I was wondering why they were parachuting her in. In previous elections Nicky Kehoe was a strong contender, so SF are going all out with a high profile candidate. Though seriously, I don't think (& hope) she won't get elected.

feelingstressed wrote: »

You sure? As she was a parachute candidate last time. And Irish people don't take kindly to that

She lives in Cabra...since the by-election result

I think the fact she has the Nicky Keogh support base behind her and the swing in votes to the left gives her a very, very good shot at a seat here.

Maj Malfunction

I think Dublin Central will end up as follows

1. Paschal Donohoe (FG)
2. Joe Costello (Labour)
3. Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind)
4. Mary Fitzpatrick (FF) / Aine Clancy (Labour) / Christy Burke (Ind)

If I was to bet on the 4th seat? Clancy on transfers??

Cyprian Brady (FF) - Not a hope!
Mary Lou McDonald (SF) - Not a hope!

I didn't think Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind) was going to stand again in the election. Is there an official candidate list somewhere on the interweb?

outandabout

Mary Fitzpatrick will get a boost following her selection on the Fianna Fail front bench.

the groutch

costello, o sullivan & donohue are all certs imo

gonna be a shootout between Fitzpatrick & McDonald with Mary Lou to just about edge it with transfers from Burke & Clancy

Bottle_of_Smoke

the groutch wrote: »

costello, o sullivan & donohue are all certs imo

gonna be a shootout between Fitzpatrick & McDonald with Mary Lou to just about edge it with transfers from Burke & Clancy

Interesting that.
Suppose makes sense in that she got elected as a FF counciller in the locals. Probably the right move from a FF point of view.

I'm not so sure about Maureen O'Sullivan as a dead cert. Tony Gregory was basically universally loved and his death was mourned locally and nationally. Even northern politicians were saying good things about him. She was seen as coming from the same angle as him. I'm not sure all that momentum will carry for this election.

FreudianSlippers

What are the political leanings of the 2 independent candidates?

Travel is good

Christy Burke is ex SF. I'm not sure about Maureen O'Sullivan, that's an interesting question & would make a difference to us voters. I'm just a bit wary of SF, as I'm old enough to remember all of the atrocities.

I'm very surprised to hear Mary Lou now lives in the constituency, as I thought she was living in Rathmines for the last election. I've never heard anything about her working locally, though she may well have been active around the Ballybough area. I'm still not rating her chances though.

It's a pity Mary Fitz is a member of FF, one wonders whether that party will ever change. Of the Marys, I'd prefer to vote for her rather than Mary Lou as I don't agree with SF policies, and that's my choice.

Over the next few weeks I'm going to examine closely all of the parties' policies. I don't think any of us can afford to make any mistakes in who we vote in for the next government!

Badabing

Quota will be roughly 7,000 i think, Costello will top the poll but won't have much of a surplas, i can see Donoghue and O'Suillivan being around 5-6500 1st prefs and Mary Lou and Fitzpatrick not far behind. 3rd and 4th seats is anyones guess. I've no doubt that i'll change my mind again in the next 3 weeks.

FreudianSlippers

I heard that Mary-Lou moved into a rental place on Villa Park Road. My grandad lives around there and that's the old people rumour circulating

Sir Oxman

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

What are the political leanings of the 2 independent candidates?

Left.

There's also Malachy Steenson, he's left as well.

Costello Left
Clancy Left
Burke Left
O'Sullivan Left
McDonald Left
Steenson Left

Brady Populist ;-)
Fitzpatrick Populist ;-)

Donohoe Centre-Right

Sir Oxman

Maj Malfunction wrote: »

I think Dublin Central will end up as follows

1. Paschal Donohoe (FG)
2. Joe Costello (Labour)
3. Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind)
4. Mary Fitzpatrick (FF) / Aine Clancy (Labour) / Christy Burke (Ind)

If I was to bet on the 4th seat? Clancy on transfers??

Cyprian Brady (FF) - Not a hope!
Mary Lou McDonald (SF) - Not a hope!

I didn't think Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind) was going to stand again in the election. Is there an official candidate list somewhere on the interweb?

This site is excellent but not official:

http://electionsireland.org

Here's the declared candidates so far in all constituencies:

http://electionsireland.org/results/general/31stdail/candidates.cfm

And for DubCentral:

http://electionsireland.org/biographies.cfm?election=2011&cons=85&sort=alpha

Travel is good

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I heard that Mary-Lou moved into a rental place on Villa Park Road. My grandad lives around there and that's the old people rumour circulating

That's interesting...

It sounds like this is only a temporary move to the area, I am not sure the locals will take too kindly to that. I'd prefer a candidate who at least knew the area and was working on the ground.

SF really seem to be trying very hard!

I'm still not convinced on SF's economic and financial policies though.

I saw a lot of the posters up this morning, the candidates are all looking well. Now if they could only run the country properly!

RetroBate

Paul O'Loughlin Christian Solidarity Party has posters up so I think you can take it he's running again this time in Dublin Central.

Christian Solidarity = Right Wing Catholic, Pro-life.

imme

Very interesting constituency.


Coming from 2 TD's, FF could be reduced to zero.

Paddy Power has odds of 16/1 on Cyprian Brady being reelected.

Could be wipeout for FF.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-government?ev_oc_grp_ids=398451


FG hoping to take back seat formerly held by Jim Mitchell. Sen Paschal Donohoe should be at the races.


Labour looking for a second seat, which some see as a possibility. I don't see this, just look at the fact that they didn't get even one seat there in 1997-2002. So, one seat for Lab.


SF looking for a seat, but might lose votes to Ind Christy Burke, who's running after leaving the party in 2009.

Last time Mary Lou ran for SF here, in 2007, she polled more than 5% less in first prefs than their candidate in the previous election. Will be pretty tough for SF to come through and down to the wire.

Although the collapsing FF vote has to go somewhere.


There's also Ind Maureen O'Sullivan who's looking to hold the seat she won in the byelection. The 'Gregory' candidate should be at the races.


The Greens again are standing, but don't stand a chance.


There's also a number of other Ind's who will take votes here, a good bit at the expense of SF.


Don't forget the Workers Party are also putting forward a candidate in this constituency. What is called Workers Party these days will be putting forward a total of 6 candidates in the GE.

mikemac

I hadn't realized Brady was so weak and Mary Fitzpatrick was so strong.

At the last election there was a lot of conflict over their areas and between supporters and there wasn't a huge difference in votes.

But isn't that sometimes the way, your biggest rival is often in your own party.

But 16/1 and 5/6, seems not this time

Travel is good

That's what I think also, I don't think Cyprian has a chance. I think he made the mistake on concentrating on one small geographic area within the Central constituency (usually Ballybough/north inner city). The area is way bigger than that! That's why I think Mary F has a better chance. Though of course, being a member of FF doesn't help anybody!

I never remember such interest being shown before in candidates, that's a good thing. There is a lot more at stake now, it's our future & our children's future at stake.

Thanks everyone for all the info. about the other candidates. I think the closing date for applications is 9th February, so hopefully we'll have a full list then.

At the moment there seems to be a loft of Left-Wing candidates.

Travel is good

Only getting a quick look at the Irish Times now. There is a good synopsis of all of the candidates, numbers of seats etc. on pages 12 to 16, though I can't see the tables on the online version.

http://www.irishtimes.com/topics/election2011/

Sir Oxman

gambiaman wrote: »

Left.

There's also Malachy Steenson, he's left as well.

Costello Left
Clancy Left
Burke Left
O'Sullivan Left
McDonald Left
Steenson Left

Brady Populist ;-)
Fitzpatrick Populist ;-)

Donohoe Centre-Right

Also,

Cieran Perry Left (Ind)

Sir Oxman

Any constituents see Mary fitzpatrick on the Primetime Late debate last night?

Extremely poor and obviously didn't know what the debate was about until the presenter had to point it out to her. Embarrassing.

REPSOC1916

gambiaman wrote: »

Any constituents see Mary fitzpatrick on the Primetime Late debate last night?

Extremely poor and obviously didn't know what the debate was about until the presenter had to point it out to her. Embarrassing.

Did you get her rambling letter about why she is still in with Zanu-FF?

Oh I'm calling it:
1 Lab
1 FG
1 SF
1 Ind (Probably O'Sullivan but I'd watch out for Perry)

Sir Oxman

REPSOC1916 wrote: »

Did you get her rambling letter about why she is still in with Zanu-FF?

Oh I'm calling it:
1 Lab
1 FG
1 SF
1 Ind (Probably O'Sullivan but I'd watch out for Perry)

I did, along with the lovely calendar.
If proof were ever needed that MM's frontbench is a cynical exercise in shoring up the FF vote and not the reform he talks about, she's it.

I still think she'll be in the mix for the last seat unfortunately...

alastair

Mary Lou has no support base in Ballybough - Christy Burke will continue to drink her milkshake here, so unless she's convinced Cabra that she's no carpetbagger, I'm not seeing her do much better than last time out.

After the first three (Costello, Donohue, O'Sullivan) it's going to be a three-way race between Fitzpatrick, McDonald, and Clancy. I would'nt put money on it, but my guess is it'll be Fitzpatrick.

Travel is good

So where is this idea coming from that Mary Lou has a strong support base in the Central constituency? I don't see any evidence of it. According to gambiaman, she is strong in the Cabra area? As I said, there are way more voters than those in that geographical area. I still don't rate her chances, and it's more to do with the SF policies than anything else. I don't think they have a handle on economics and how to get our economy going again.

So much for Mary F then, not looking good. Nor Cyprian Brady. maybe a FF wipeout????

Labour might do well out of this, maybe Aine Clancy will get elected also. I'll have to find out a bit more about her views and policies.

The supporters of Paschal Donohoe have done a great job with the posters, they seem very numerous. I heard that supporters for Cyprian Brady put a load of his posters near her home, not the done thing I'm afraid. I only saw one poster there this morning.

I wonder will any of the candidates be out canvassing this weekend? I'd love to meet them, I must prepare some questions for the door-callers.

At least it will be all over soon.

Sir Oxman

Travel is good wrote: »

So where is this idea coming from that Mary Lou has a strong support base in the Central constituency? I don't see any evidence of it. According to gambiaman, she is strong in the Cabra area? As I said, there are way more voters than those in that geographical area. I still don't rate her chances, and it's more to do with the SF policies than anything else. I don't think they have a handle on economics and how to get our economy going again.

So much for Mary F then, not looking good. Nor Cyprian Brady. maybe a FF wipeout????

Labour might do well out of this, maybe Aine Clancy will get elected also. I'll have to find out a bit more about her views and policies.

The supporters of Paschal Donohoe have done a great job with the posters, they seem very numerous. I heard that supporters for Cyprian Brady put a load of his posters near her home, not the done thing I'm afraid. I only saw one poster there this morning.

I wonder will any of the candidates be out canvassing this weekend? I'd love to meet them, I must prepare some questions for the door-callers.

At least it will be all over soon.

MLMcD has the SF machine in DubCentral behind her - Kehoe's Cabra lot and the other end who were behind Burke till he got elected on a SF ticket to the City Council last year then left SF.
I don't think Burke has a snowballs chance in hell of bringing the SF vote with him (I don't live that end of DubC so I am gathering this info from speaking to canvassers etc and reading up on the constituency politics)
So, my prediction of a SF win here is based on her profile, her strong groundworkers, the swing to SF.

I don't think the debate program last night will affect Fitzpatrick's vote in the slightest - she'll get the majority of whatever is left of the FF core vote here but seriously, any non-FF voters in DubC should take a look at it on RTE Player - out of her depth, a parish-pumper with no ideas only vague soundbites which from a FFer, sound worse than hollow.

I'd love to here from anyone living around O Sullivan's area on how she's faring in local opinion? I've heard she's not too popular for siding with FF/GP on a few votes in the Dail?

alastair

gambiaman wrote: »

I don't think Burke has a snowballs chance in hell of bringing the SF vote with him (I don't live that end of DubC so I am gathering this info from speaking to canvassers etc and reading up on the constituency politics)

You'd be wrong. Christy Burke has enormous good will on account of years of personal constituency work - much of the SF vote in Burke's neck of the woods was/is actually the Burke vote. The shambles that was Mary Lou's last run in Dub Central speaks volumes for the SF 'machine'. It may well be a different story in Nicky Kehoe land, but given the loyalty shown to Kehoe over Mary Lou I wouldn't be so sure.

Christy Burke won't be elected, but he may well help sink Mary Lou.

p to the e

gambiaman wrote: »

Also,

Cieran Perry Left (Ind)

Got there before me. I'd predict the final tally being between Mary Lou and Mary Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was shunned by Ahern after the last election even though she had a huge percentage of votes.

Pal

Mary Fitz will show in.
Aine Clancy looks good too.
Joe most probably.
Pascal and Maureen done deals too.

And a good day for Dublin Central will be punting Mary Lou to oblivion.