Looking ahead to the Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge Cup Knockouts

thomond2006

HEINEKEN CUP

Seedings:
1. Northampton (25)
2. Leinster (24)
3. Perpignan (22)
4. Biarritz (22)
5. Toulouse (22)
6. Toulon (17)

---

7. Leicester (22)
8. Ulster (22)

So the quarter-final and the semi-final pairings are:
Leinster/Leicester at home to Biarritz/Toulouse
Northampton/Ulster at home to Perpignan/Toulon

AMLIN CHALLENGE CUP

Seedings:
1. Stade Francais (29)
2. Brive (27)
3. La Rochelle (24)
4. Harlequins (24)

---

(from Heineken Cup)
5. Wasps (19)
6. Clermont Auvergne (19)
7. Munster (16)

---

8. Montpellier (21)

Quarter finals and semi-final pairings:
Stade Francais/Montpellier at home to La Rochelle/Clermont Auvergne
Brive/Munster at home to Harlequins/Wasps

irishbucsfan

Perpignan

Great draw.

All-Irish final in the Heineken Cup is on (however unlikely) and Munster got the easiest possible draw IMO.

Podge_irl

Perpignan

Looks like the conspiracy theorists will need to change their tune.

Excellent news on the potential semi draw - if we got Toulouse as home then that's our best chance of beating them. Would definitely rather that then having to deal with them either away or in the final. Would be happy with Leinster taking on any of the other four in the final.

The QF is most definitely not a straight-forward affair though. Would have been a lot happier with Toulon. But to win you have to beat the best and all that.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Perpignan

Podge_irl wrote: »

Looks like the conspiracy theorists will need to change their tune.

The 4 clubs closest to the final venue are drawn at home, the conspiracy is still on, its just last year there was two different conspiracies, we now know which is true

sock puppet

The Amlin is harder to predict imo. Bar Cardiff the Heineken Cup teams didn't exactly set the competition alight last year. The Brive-Munster match could depend on whether Brive are in danger of relegation or not.

PhatPiggins

Perpignan

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Great draw.

All-Irish final in the Heineken Cup is on (however unlikely) and Munster got the easiest possible draw IMO.

Easy? We couldn't beat an egg the way we're playing. Should beat Brive but Quins are motoring along nicely in the AP.

Stev_o

Ulster

Can't really see any of the French teams in the final.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Perpignan

sock puppet wrote: »

The Amlin is harder to predict imo. Bar Cardiff the Heineken Cup teams didn't exactly set the competition alight last year. The Brive-Munster match could depend on whether Brive are in danger of relegation or not.

at the moment they are 13th, in the relegation zone so if Brive have to focus on Top 14 then the match gets easier

CouchSmart

Perpignan

So many Irish teams have crumbled under the pressure of being favourites, I really hope Leinster change this!

Chilli Con Kearney

Perpignan

Would definitely have preferred to play Toulon in the QF than take on Leicester.

Having said that, Leicester have only won four of their ten away games this season - Scarlets and Treviso in the HC as well as London Irish and Exeter in the Premiership.

BoarHunter

Toulon

CouchSmart wrote: »

So many Irish teams have crumbled under the pressure of being favourites, I really hope Leinster change this!

Where did you see that Leinster were favourites ? For the moment they have won nothing and they are champions of nothing.

They look like they might be the better team at the moment but knock outs are in a long time.

they have the home advantage for the Semi which should help them a lot to go through. looks like we gonna have a cracker of a semi in Dublin.

I voted Toulouse by Heart and they have the experience on their side but leinster are well capable to win it. Hope Nigel Owens won't be refereing that though.

Podge_irl

Perpignan

BoarHunter wrote: »

Where did you see that Leinster were favourites ?

Every single bookie...

CouchSmart

Perpignan

BoarHunter wrote: »

Where did you see that Leinster were favourites ? For the moment they have won nothing and they are champions of nothing.

Check the poll, listen to the pundits.

Ian_K

Perpignan

I'll be putting money on Ulster to upset Northampton if i get a good price, just a hunch

RMD

Perpignan

Stev_o wrote: »

Can't really see any of the French teams in the final.

Up until today Toulouse were certainly the best team in the HC, but after their loss today to the Wasps I don't know. If we beat Toulouse assuming we get them in the semis, we have the Heineken to be honest. (As long as we don't play awful in the final)

liammur

Leinster

Couldn't be set up easier for Leinster. Voted for northampton tho, to get them off the blocks

canine

Leinsters to lose

wixfjord

Perpignan

liammur wrote: »

Couldn't be set up easier for Leinster. Voted for northampton tho, to get them off the blocks

Yeah, being on the same side as two former winners + Biarritz, kingpins of European rugby, when the worst teams (bar N'hampton) are on the other side of the draw is handy. Bollocks.

liammur

Leinster

wixfjord wrote: »

Yeah, being on the same side as two former winners + Biarritz, kingpins of European rugby, when the worst teams (bar N'hampton) are on the other side of the draw is handy. Bollocks.

The key is to get teams at home. If you can't beat ANY opposition at home you simply don't deserve it.

Quint2010

Perpignan

Leinster 2/1 Northampton 3/1 Leicester 7/1 Toulouse 7/1 Perpignan 8/1 Toulon 12/1 Biarritz 12/1 Ulster33/1



Leinster now favourites and rightly so. But Leicester is a very difficult game

liammur

Leinster

Quint2010 wrote: »

Leinster 2/1
Northampton 3/1 Leicester 7/1 Toulouse 7/1 Perpignan 8/1 Toulon 12/1 Biarritz 12/1 Ulster33/1



Leinster now favourites and rightly so. But Leicester is a very difficult game

Those odds look about right to me. Only reason the saints are @ 3/1 is it looks like they have an easy run to the final. They'll prob be at 5/2 day of the final.

wixfjord

Perpignan

liammur wrote: »

The key is to get teams at home. If you can't beat ANY opposition at home you simply don't deserve it.

You said couldnt be easier, what I'm saying is it isn't exactly hand now is it?

Ian_K

Perpignan

I'd say the winners of Leinster-Leicester will go all the way, home advantage is massive in rugby

liammur

Leinster

wixfjord wrote: »

You said couldnt be easier, what I'm saying is it isn't exactly hand now is it?

Couldn't really be any easier, unless you are extremely greedy. An away semi would make all the difference imo. Better to play toulouse at the aviva in the semi, rather than in the final. And I'd give biarritz every chance of beating them. Then a home semi v biarritz, certainly can't get easier than that.

phog

Perpignan

There isn't a hope in hell of Leicester beating Leinster in the QF, they are a nothing team now compared to their previous highs of being European king makers.

Ian_K

Perpignan

phog wrote: »

There isn't a hope in hell of Leicester beating Leinster in the QF, they are a nothing team now compared to their previous highs of being European king makers.

I wouldnt write them off so quickly, their pack is stronger than ever, Ben Youngs is possiby the best scrum half in the northern hemisphere and Manu Tuilagi is making a big name for himself in the centre
They lack a bit of class out wide maybe but Hamilton is capable if inconsistent
Also they have Thomas Waldrom now who has been unbelievable every time ive seen him this season

PhatPiggins

Perpignan

7/1 on Toulouse is fairly tempting. I cant see them being any worse then evens against Biarritz, 5/4 against Leinster and favourites against who ever else makes the final. 2 bloody hard games to get there though.

liammur

Leinster

PhatPiggins wrote: »

7/1 on Toulouse is fairly tempting. I cant see them being any worse then evens against Biarritz, 5/4 against Leinster and favourites against who ever else makes the final. 2 bloody hard games to get there though.

Defending this trophy is very very difficult, that's the reason why i wouldn't back them, they may well just concentrate on the Top 14

PhatPiggins

Perpignan

phog wrote: »

There isn't a hope in hell of Leicester beating Leinster in the QF, they are a nothing team now compared to their previous highs of being European king makers.

Don't agree, the current team is better then the one who had a purple patch from 200-2004 its just that everyone else has caught up and its a lot harder to win the HC now.

Leicester are the hardest draw Leinster could have gotten for a home quarter. I wouldn't be a minutes thought to the semi's if I was Schmidt. This is going to be a bloody tough game

liammur

Leinster

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Don't agree, the current team is better then the one who had a purple patch from 200-2004 its just that everyone else has caught up and its a lot harder to win the HC now.

Leicester are the hardest draw Leinster could have gotten for a home quarter. I wouldn't be a minutes thought to the semi's if I was Schmidt. This is going to be a bloody tough game

No, that leicester 2000-2002 team was 1 of the best in the competition's history, only team to defend it. Some world class players like johnson in it.

Quint2010

Perpignan

Ian_K wrote: »

I wouldnt write them off so quickly, their pack is stronger than ever, Ben Youngs is possiby the best scrum half in the northern hemisphere and Manu Tuilagi is making a big name for himself in the centre
They lack a bit of class out wide maybe but Hamilton is capable if inconsistent
Also they have Thomas Waldrom now who has been unbelievable every time ive seen him this season

I agree with this. A very tough game. I make Leinster marginal favourites (maybe -5) because of home advantage and their form in the cup so far but Leicester are Premiership champions and Leinster have only won their last 2 QF's by the minimum margin. A very close game beckons..

sock puppet

Ian_K wrote: »

I wouldnt write them off so quickly, their pack is stronger than ever, Ben Youngs is possiby the best scrum half in the northern hemisphere and Manu Tuilagi is making a big name for himself in the centre
They lack a bit of class out wide maybe but Hamilton is capable if inconsistent
Also they have Thomas Waldrom now who has been unbelievable every time ive seen him this season

Not to worry. We have a whole Six Nations tournament yet for England to ruin Flood and Youngs.

liammur

Leinster

sock puppet wrote: »

Not to worry. We have a whole Six Nations tournament yet for England to ruin Flood and Youngs.

This is the key point for all teams involved. The 6 nations - injuries, confidence, loss of form etc. It's a whole new tournament in april.

CatFromHue

the leicester team that beat leinster in 2005 was

Vesty; Murphy, Smith, Gibson, Lloyd, Goode, Ellis; Rowntree, Chuter, White; M Johnson (capt), L Deacon; Moody, Back, Corry.

the leinster team was

Dempsey, Horgan, O'Driscoll, Contepomi, Hickie, Holwell, Easterby; Corrigan (capt), Byrne, Nebbett, O'Kelly, Cullen, Potts, Gleeson, Miller.

that was a very good leicester team who i think were the reigning english prmiership and european champions.

they bossed us in the pack and just frankly strangled us in open play.

i think were better equiped nowadays and would be favourites to beat them.

they drew at home to perpignan and lost by 5 in france. perpignan are currently tenth in top 14. they also beat the scarlets, who are second in the magners, home and away.

we beat racing metro, who are second in the top 14, home and away. clermont are fifth in the top14 and we did pretty well against them.

we also beat saracens who are second in the english premiership.

they wont be easy but we do have the better record in europe this season than they do.

LostPassword

Perpignan

Barring an injury to Sexton during the 6 nations, I don't think Leicester have much chance. The premiership is much weaker now than it has been historically and Leicester are pretty similar to somebody like Clermont - all about power - although not as good. They won't be strong enough to over-power us and they won't be able to live with the speed of our game. We've got good back up everywhere bar out-half (assuming Stan will be back by April).

RMD

Perpignan

sock puppet wrote: »

Not to worry. We have a whole Six Nations tournament yet for England to ruin Flood and Youngs.

Likewise we have a 6 nations to ruin much of Leinster's key players.

thomond2006

Perpignan

Can Munster play a home semi at Thomond Park?

Brive away is a handy draw. They have financial issues which spells turmoil for me.

The Heineken is Leinster's to lose really.

I predict Munster vs Stade Francais in the Amlin final and Leinster vs Northampton in the Heineken Cup Final. Can't see Ulster winning at Northampton.

phog

Perpignan

thomond2006 wrote: »

Can Munster play a home semi at Thomond Park?

Brive away is a handy draw. They have financial issues which spells turmoil for me.

The IRFU said a few years back that all SF would be played in Lansdowne so I'd guess they will be played in Aviva, that could mean 3 S/Fs on the same week-end in Aviva, what a prospect

CouchSmart

Perpignan

thomond2006 wrote: »

Can Munster play a home semi at Thomond Park?

Yep. Amlin semi is an actual 'home' game.

CatFromHue

thomond2006 wrote: »

Can Munster play a home semi at Thomond Park?

the team who is drawn at home for the semi can play the game in their own ground.

like connacht did last year

thomond2006

Perpignan

Hopefully we'll have Wasps, some payback required after our last meeting in Lansdowne.

Nah I think if it can be played at Thomond, then it should be. I don't think you'd fill the Aviva tbh.

liammur

Leinster

thomond2006 wrote: »

Hopefully we'll have Wasps, some payback required after our last meeting in Lansdowne.

Nah I think if it can be played at Thomond, then it should be. I don't think you'd fill the Aviva tbh.

Correct. It would be @ TP, and against the wasps would certainly be a sellout.

LuckyGent88

Perpignan

thomond2006 wrote: »

Hopefully we'll have Wasps, some payback required after our last meeting in Lansdowne.

Nah I think if it can be played at Thomond, then it should be. I don't think you'd fill the Aviva tbh.

and hopefully it would be half the game that semi was. One of the best mathches i have ever seen

trackguy

Biarritz

LostPassword wrote: »

Barring an injury to Sexton during the 6 nations, I don't think Leicester have much chance. The premiership is much weaker now than it has been historically and Leicester are pretty similar to somebody like Clermont - all about power - although not as good. They won't be strong enough to over-power us and they won't be able to live with the speed of our game. We've got good back up everywhere bar out-half (assuming Stan will be back by April).

Leicester are still a formidable team. They have a really powerful pack and did a number on Northampton a few weeks ago. They are a little short on quality though, compared to previous years.

Still, I wouldn't be mad about the draw for a number of reasons -

Flood and Youngs is a very good half-back combination, Youngs in particular is a very exciting player. The outside backs are nothing to write home about - the threats are fairly obvious, Tuilagi's power for instance. This is particularly true if Murphy is still out.

The scrum could be a problem too. Leinster's scrum has been solid all year but Ayerza, Cole and Castrogiovanni can be destructive. They also have a formidable line-out and a strong back-row.

They're a known quantity but still a dangerous one.

durkadurka

Leinsters to lose? We have to overcome three European giants in a row probably. Ok two at home but it's not exactly a stroll.

We'll have to fight tooth and nail against Leicester and Toulouse.

This is a great great tournament. Yes we have a great chance to win it but I'd still only have us at about 3-1 to win it.

Gracelessly Tom

Perpignan

liammur wrote: »

Those odds look about right to me. Only reason the saints are @ 3/1 is it looks like they have an easy run to the final. They'll prob be at 5/2 day of the final.

Easy??? Come off it, they should get past Ulster, but won't be easy. Then they get Perpignan most likely, who will really put it up to them. The semi won't be in Franklins Gardens so they won't have that comfort either.

At the moment, if the matches were being played over the next few weekends I'd say a Leinster v Perpignan final.

Still a whole international tournament to be played out first though! April is a long way away.

ambid

Perpignan

trackguy wrote: »

Leicester are still a formidable team. They have a really powerful pack and did a number on Northampton a few weeks ago. They are a little short on quality though, compared to previous years.

Still, I wouldn't be mad about the draw for a number of reasons -

Flood and Youngs is a very good half-back combination, Youngs in particular is a very exciting player. The outside backs are nothing to write home about - the threats are fairly obvious, Tuilagi's power for instance. This is particularly true if Murphy is still out.

The scrum could be a problem too. Leinster's scrum has been solid all year but Ayerza, Cole and Castrogiovanni can be destructive. They also have a formidable line-out and a strong back-row.

They're a known quantity but still a dangerous one.

Excellent post. Supporters complacency is a worry. Leinster's half of the draw is extremely tough.

Podge_irl

Perpignan

durkadurka wrote: »

This is a great great tournament. Yes we have a great chance to win it but I'd still only have us at about 3-1 to win it.

Which is still pretty good going with 8 teams left.

It's not Leinster's to lose by any stretch of the imagination, but they are quite rightly favourites to lift the cup. I'd expect Leinster to beat any team at home.

SomeFool

Stev_o wrote: »

Can't really see any of the French teams in the final.

They still have the best record of apperances in the HEC knockouts!

Ian_K wrote: »

I'll be putting money on Ulster to upset Northampton if i get a good price, just a hunch

I think they will, been good value all season, youth/talent/mad saffers! good mix that might do it.

Quint2010 wrote: »

Leinster now favourites and rightly so. But Leicester is a very difficult game

Quite true, Leinster have a lot more to offer outside 9-10 than Leicester though! Very hard to make a case for Leicester.

CatFromHue wrote: »

they wont be easy but we do have the better record in europe this season than they do.

Just play them like ye would Munster, should be ok on current form.

thomond2006 wrote: »

Can Munster play a home semi at Thomond Park?
Yep! But if we sell seats in Landsdowne we might help to pay for a quality NIC player!!(maybe)

Brive away is a handy draw.(True)
The Heineken is Leinster's to lose really. (True)

I predict Munster vs Stade Francais in the Amlin final and Leinster vs Northampton in the Heineken Cup Final. Can't see Ulster winning at Northampton.

Mwahaahhahaaaa!!!! :pac:

Podge_irl wrote: »

It's not Leinster's to lose by any stretch of the imagination, but they are quite rightly favourites to lift the cup. I'd expect Leinster to beat any team at home.

I agree but they have a semi with one of the few teams in Rugby with the caliber to catch them out!

Kilo

Perpignan

Leicester's away record isn't great by any stretch of the imagination. Of the 10 games they've played away, they've lost 6 and of the four they've won, two were by a score or less: Treviso 29-34 and Exeter 15-22.

For the record, the other two wins were LI 14-23 and Scarlets 18-32.

To be fair, Leinster's away record is not good either, most of the losses being in the early part of the season. However, Leinster have not been beaten at home all season.

Just saying

Blut2

If Ulster were by some miracle to win against Northampton would their semi be in Lansdowne? ie is home advantage for the semis done by the draw for that side of the tournament or is it based on seedings from the group stages?

If it did go ahead in Lansdowne I wonder how many tickets theyd sell.....Two HC semis in Dublin would be quite the rugby spectacle for Irish fans if it did happen.