Arkle Chase 2011

UrbanSea

Thought I'd get a few Cheltenham race threads going. Is it me or does this look like one of the weakest grade one races of the festival? Ghizao the favourite is a grade 2 winner at Cheltenham fair enough,but didn't even place is a graded race over hurdles. Medermit looked a good bet for me at the start of the year but his price has reflected him lately,having refused and finished only second to Hell's Bay last time.I think the only horse I could realy go for so far in the race is Finian's Rainbow,but still probably wouldn't back it at around 6/1.Think it shows how weak the race is looking at the minute when Saludos is 4th favourite generally.

What does anyone else think?

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

Thought I'd get a few Cheltenham race threads going. Is it me or does this look like one of the weakest grade one races of the festival? Ghizao the favourite is a grade 2 winner at Cheltenham fair enough,but didn't even place is a graded race over hurdles. Medermit looked a good bet for me at the start of the year but his price has reflected him lately,having refused and finished only second to Hell's Bay last time.I think the only horse I could realy go for so far in the race is Finian's Rainbow,but still probably wouldn't back it at around 6/1.Think it shows how weak the race is looking at the minute when Saludos is 4th favourite generally.

What does anyone else think?

Dunno if Finians Rainbow will have the pace but he is the most exciting.

P.S. Hurdlers and chasers are, very often, totally different things.

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Dunno if Finians Rainbow will have the pace but he is the most exciting.

P.S. Hurdlers and chasers are, very often, totally different things.

I do understand that but you more often see top hurdlers and then bad chasers than bad hurdlers who go on to be top chasers.

mdwexford

Yeah doesnt look the strongest renewal at the moment.

premierstone

greetings wrote: »

Thought I'd get a few Cheltenham race threads going. Is it me or does this look like one of the weakest grade one races of the festival? Ghizao the favourite is a grade 2 winner at Cheltenham fair enough,but didn't even place is a graded race over hurdles. Medermit looked a good bet for me at the start of the year but his price has reflected him lately,having refused and finished only second to Hell's Bay last time.I think the only horse I could realy go for so far in the race is Finian's Rainbow,but still probably wouldn't back it at around 6/1.Think it shows how weak the race is looking at the minute when Saludos is 4th favourite generally.

What does anyone else think?

Agree that it looks to be th eweakest Arkle in many years, personally think Noble Prince of Paul Nolans is one that couls really appreciate the better ground come chlelt and have backed him on BF, btw where is Saludos fourth fav? Can be backed @120 on BF.

UrbanSea

premierstone wrote: »

Agree that it looks to be th eweakest Arkle in many years, personally think Noble Prince of Paul Nolans is one that couls really appreciate the better ground come chlelt and have backed him on BF, btw where is Saludos fourth fav? Can be backed @120 on BF.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/cheltenham-festival/arkle-trophy

Saludos generally 20/1 joint forth there.
Agreed, I think we'll see a lot of reversed form this year just like last year,it's dangerous to back when the ground changes. I've a few ante post,just none on the Arkle.

hucklebuck

Out of that list it would be Medermit for me, might be tempted by Zaynar he has been rubbish over hurdles this season so might be sent over fences - very speculative though

hucklebuck

Flat Out was travelling and jumping beautifully in the Arkle Novice Chase until he clattered the second last, anyone else think he is worth backing for the Arkle?

UrbanSea

I've just got on Noble Prince at 25/1 with WH,the only bookies who haven't cut his odds yet,how slow are they??? As low as 10/1 after that race.

Nulty

hucklebuck wrote: »

Flat Out was travelling and jumping beautifully in the Arkle Novice Chase until he clattered the second last, anyone else think he is worth backing for the Arkle?

Jumping is the name of the game

Esroh

Nulty wrote: »

Jumping is the name of the game

+1

The run down the hill tends to put horse's in deep at the fence in the dip. If he even touches it he will be out of the race.
He did exactly this today and in Punchestown when he got away with it

NewApproach

I think Flat Out is the best bet at the minute. He is a smashing jumper for the most part, and if he can avoid falling in Cheltenham he could go very close. He was taking lengths out of his opponents today until he clattered the second last, and you can assume he will both learn from the mistake, and be well schooled prior to Cheltenham.

He was a classy novice hurdler, and these types tend to do well in the Arkle. 16/1 is a good price imo.

Nulty

16/1 is a little better than reasonable for Flat Out. 12s or 14s looks right. Yes he travels and jumps well on the whole but if he makes any mistake in the Arkle hes finished. You just cannot make a mistake in a championship race. That race will have brought him on a huge amount but in all likelyhood he will be making his 3rd start over fences in the Arkle at one of the trickiest courses in the world when hes blundered in each of his previous races. I'd get fallers insurance before backing him.

supremenovice

Very hard what to make of the form here and in England.
I dont see a superstar anywhere. Might be one to avoid.
Is Mikael still in the mix for the Arkle or is he a SunAlliance horse?

NewApproach

I don't think Mikael should go to Cheltenham to be honest. It's not the be all and end all. Give him time, and there is still Aintree and Punchestown to look forward to with him.

mdwexford

Considering his problems and the way his season has gone id be inclined to agree.

A confidence booster and Punchestown maybe and a Gold Cup campaign next year.

premierstone

supremenovice wrote: »

Very hard what to make of the form here and in England.
I dont see a superstar anywhere. Might be one to avoid.
Is Mikael still in the mix for the Arkle or is he a SunAlliance horse?

Ladbrokes are NRNB and Mikael is 16s for the World Hurdle its a no-brainer imo, u can be sure if he does line up there he will be alot shorter than that

UrbanSea

premierstone wrote: »

Ladbrokes are NRNB and Mikael is 16s for the World Hurdle its a no-brainer imo, u can be sure if he does line up there he will be alot shorter than that

And going for place money.

premierstone

UrbanSea wrote: »

And going for place money.

in ur opinon and yes 16s is an e/w price and i assume you've heard of this betfairy thing:rolleyes:

UrbanSea

premierstone wrote: »

in ur opinon and yes 16s is an e/w price and i assume you've heard of this betfairy thing:rolleyes:

I'm afraid I don't know what you mean.Betfare?

mdwexford

Flat Out out for the season, hope none of you backed him ante post.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/cheltenham-festival-flat-out-misses-rest-of-season-with-leg-injury/811794/top/

premierstone

mdwexford wrote: »

Flat Out out for the season, hope none of you backed him ante post.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/cheltenham-festival-flat-out-misses-rest-of-season-with-leg-injury/811794/top/

I didnt personally but there was alot to like about the way he travelled up untill the second last and if he had stood up would have been quite short in alot of books imo, I have backed Noble Prince myself at around an average of 40 on Betfair and think he will apreciate the likely better ground in Chelt, slight concern that he didnt really fight at the finish of the race and Realt Dubh seemed to want it more, personally having watched the race again a few times Im not really convinced the English form is as superior to the Irish as the market would suggest and Im happy enough Noble Prince is the best of the Irish.

UrbanSea

premierstone wrote: »

I didnt personally but there was alot to like about the way he travelled up untill the second last and if he had stood up would have been quite short in alot of books imo, I have backed Noble Prince myself at around an average of 40 on Betfair and think he will apreciate the likely better ground in Chelt, slight concern that he didnt really fight at the finish of the race and Realt Dubh seemed to want it more, personally having watched the race again a few times Im not really convinced the English form is as superior to the Irish as the market would suggest and Im happy enough Noble Prince is the best of the Irish.

I'm on Noble Prince aswell,hoping for a nice run.

premierstone

Entries are out and Starluck is among them :eek:

hucklebuck

Saw that, it's a strange one. Might have a few each way he is around 25/1.

UrbanSea

If Starluck can jump a fence he has a big chance against that crop.

hucklebuck

UrbanSea wrote: »

If Starluck can jump a fence he has a big chance against that crop.

Yeah I agree, Finians Rainbow, Medermit and possibly Ghizao are the only ones I expect to be competitive.

UrbanSea

I'm on Noble Prince,I'd have him well ahead of Medermit.

minty16

I can't have Noble Prince at all. Realt Dubh has beaten him twice in a row. Nolan's been talking about 2m4f for Noble Prince and for some reason I reckon he's right. Doesn't look that pacy.

premierstone

minty16 wrote: »

I can't have Noble Prince at all. Realt Dubh has beaten him twice in a row. Nolan's been talking about 2m4f for Noble Prince and for some reason I reckon he's right. Doesn't look that pacy.

While I have no doubt he would reverse the form with Realt Dubh I fear you are right about the target and can see Noble Prince lining out in the Jewson, which if he does would be a stonking bet imo.

hucklebuck

premierstone wrote: »

While I have no doubt he would reverse the form with Realt Dubh I fear you are right about the target and can see Noble Prince lining out in the Jewson, which if he does would be a stonking bet imo.

Had a look at the Jewson ante post there, the Minack is jumping off the page at 16/1, looks great value imo.

Slattsy

Do not back Realt Dubh - lay lay lay (if i had a betfair account) !! Typical Meade horse, doesnt win in England !! Slow pace soft ground horse, will have the legs run off him at chelt if he goes !

In all truth it is an awful race, considering previous winners. Looks a Grade 3 at best.

Looking at the orices now, i see Hendersons horse Giorgio Quercus is 33/1. He ran during the week, i seen the race and won really well, looked like he had a future. Is it worth the risk though with Finians Rainbow also out of Nicky's yard as the fav. I think FR wants further tbh, Ghizao hasnt got the form really, so Medermit at 14/1 looks the likely winner, although i've not been impressed by his jumping but he's def the best horse in the race.

Thats my 2 cents.. go easy on me !!

UrbanSea

If Medermit wins it'll be more of a shock than a 50/1 shot winning the CH in my opinion.
I think this could have outsider written all over it. Maybe a horse who may have disappointed so far but due to not getting anyway decent ground.

hucklebuck

UrbanSea wrote: »

If Medermit wins it'll be more of a shock than a 50/1 shot winning the CH in my opinion.
I think this could have outsider written all over it. Maybe a horse who may have disappointed so far but due to not getting anyway decent ground.

This might be a shock, Williams Wishes is 50/1, I think I found my outsider. He has not beaten much but is worth a small interest me thinks.

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

If Medermit wins it'll be more of a shock than a 50/1 shot winning the CH in my opinion.
I think this could have outsider written all over it. Maybe a horse who may have disappointed so far but due to not getting anyway decent ground.

Will you give me 25/1 on Medermit ???

UrbanSea

Slattsy wrote: »

Will you give me 25/1 on Medermit ???

No sir,I just think some horses at 50/1 in the CH have better chances than Medermit in the Arkle.

Johner

hucklebuck wrote: »

This might be a shock, Williams Wishes is 50/1, I think I found my outsider. He has not beaten much but is worth a small interest me thinks.

He more than likely won't go for the Arkle.

hucklebuck

Johner wrote: »

He more than likely won't go for the Arkle.

Why don't you think so?

premierstone

Alas my worst fears have been realised and Paul Nolan has confirmed that Noble Prince will not run in the Arkle but the Jewson :mad: The Jewson is shaping to be a better race tbh.

Johner

hucklebuck wrote: »

Why don't you think so?

Evan Williams said he probably isn't championship race class and would be looking at one of the handicaps at the festival.

elbows666

premierstone wrote: »

Alas my worst fears have been realised and Paul Nolan has confirmed that Noble Prince will not run in the Arkle but the Jewson :mad: The Jewson is shaping to be a better race tbh.

Sick - really fancied this for the arkle

UrbanSea

Same there goes my antepost.

hucklebuck

Johner wrote: »

Evan Williams said he probably isn't championship race class and would be looking at one of the handicaps at the festival.

Cheers missed that, I heard him talking about Cheltenham and assumed that was his target.

minty16

Re Noble Prince, I knew this would happen. If anyone is NR no bet then you are better off than him being in it.

premierstone

minty16 wrote: »

Re Noble Prince, I knew this would happen. If anyone is NR no bet then you are better off than him being in it.

No bookies are NRNB this far away, only Ladbrokes are NRNB for the 4 Championship races.

Slozer

A fine display by Medermit today and I think he has his jumping together now. He showed fine jumping at speed today and thats what the Arkle is all about. The Arkle is normally won by horses with high class hurdling form and Medermit is the highest rated hurdler to be entered in the Arkle in a good number of years. All stats now point to this horse as a strong contender for the Arkle and I certainly wont be backing against him.

Nulty

I think Medermit did that rather more easily than Captain Chris made it look. He was idling in front, theres no doubt about that. I don't know the horse inside out but the way he was running it looked like he had plenty left in him at the end. He travelled very well throughout and I know I'd rather be with Medermit than Captain Chris. I have no vested interest in the race and probably wont considering the market is fairly settled. Medermit could still be the value though at 7s. He will surely be going for the Arkle after this so the question of his target is not that difficult.

Its **** that Finians Rainbow hasn't been in a real race this year. Its annoying. but he won his races in decent times without being pushed and is a sound jumper

UrbanSea

Jesus,7/1,it was said on Channel 4 yesterday VC were giving 14/1 after the race.

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

Do not back Realt Dubh - lay lay lay (if i had a betfair account) !! Typical Meade horse, doesnt win in England !! Slow pace soft ground horse, will have the legs run off him at chelt if he goes !

In all truth it is an awful race, considering previous winners. Looks a Grade 3 at best.

Looking at the orices now, i see Hendersons horse Giorgio Quercus is 33/1. He ran during the week, i seen the race and won really well, looked like he had a future. Is it worth the risk though with Finians Rainbow also out of Nicky's yard as the fav. I think FR wants further tbh, Ghizao hasnt got the form really, so Medermit at 14/1 looks the likely winner, although i've not been impressed by his jumping but he's def the best horse in the race.

Thats my 2 cents.. go easy on me !!

you heard it here first lads

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

Jesus,7/1,it was said on Channel 4 yesterday VC were giving 14/1 after the race.

I definitely would have taken that if I knew about it.

@Slattsy

Just cause Ghizao doesn't have the form doesn't mean he won't win it. If fact, He's beaten Captain Chris by 10l and 4.5l. I can't remember the races but htat looks better than Medermit doesn't it?

UrbanSea

I think it might have been a mistake Nulty when I think of it,cos I'm certain it was about 14/1 before the race,they surely would have cut it more than that.