Cold Vs Warmer battle

oterra

Just wondering does anyone have any examples (charts etc) where cold and mild air came together and caused significant snow event with prolonged cold effect over Ireland.
Not talking about rain to snow to rain event like last weekend. It just seems the warmer air progresses and wins out in these parts most of the time. Does the cold ever kick back in Ireland or is it quite unusual for prolonged cold after this type of battle. Just interested what you guys think!

pistolpetes11

I maybe wrong but I think the great snow of 82 that so many on here talk of came from that type of event .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Afss7QL4wAc

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054920482

The end of the first week in jan '82 had a big one of those events.

People try to compare it with the event just gone out but '82 was a bigger snow event by far in terms of quantity of snow and the drifts which on the higher ground in Wicklow reached to the tops of the trees in the woods,but even on the coast,10 to 15ft high blocking many roads..
It was in the East,a 48 hour non stop heavy blizzard with thundersnow due to a stalled front in a freezing Easterly.It had the important ingredient of a freezing surface air flow across the irish sea from an icy Britain at the time.
That wind was gale force a lot of the time.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055812836


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055812836

The only other serious frontal snow events I remember happened to be fronts coming in from the north east so don't count for your question.
That 1982 event still remains number one for my location but because the pre Xmas snow locally measured 18 inches here,it now ranks 2nd,pushing jan '87 into third and february '91 into fourth place.

This past event Nov 26th to dec 26th totally takes number one in a different category for south east wicklow though in terms of the prolonged unbroken length of time snow stayed on the ground.

oterra

Deleted User wrote: »

The end of the first week in jan '82 had a big one of those events.

People try to compare it with the event just gone out but '82 was a bigger snow event by far in terms of quantity of snow and the drifts which on the higher ground in Wicklow reached to the tops of the trees in the woods,but even on the coast,10 to 15ft high blocking many roads..
It was in the East,a 48 hour non stop heavy blizzard with thundersnow due to a stalled front in a freezing Easterly.It had the important ingredient of a freezing surface air flow across the irish sea from an icy Britain at the time.
That wind was gale force a lot of the time.

Any chance of an 82 type event happening this year, with the unstable f1 charts at the moment. Any tell tale signs or do you think we are done for this winter?

pistolpetes11

oterra wrote: »

Any chance of an 82 type event happening this year, with the unstable f1 charts at the moment. Any tell tale signs or do you think we are done for this winter?

Trying to predict that type of event would be very hard , if im not wrong BB they were not expecting the front to stall and it came as somewhat of a surprise to most ?

Also on other events for the winter :

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The conventional models have been wavering on strength of blocking but there has been a general theme past three days to show a seven-day zonal interval (half time ?) followed by a return to blocking, but with some scenarios indicating mainly northerly flow and some bringing the Siberian high west into Scandinavia.

The key time period is 19-21 Jan ... strong events on 11-12, 15 and 17 Jan all fall into the zonal interval and then a strong event 19-20 with full moon runs into the transitional upper air signal. Think it may reverse fairly quickly and so the Donegal postman may end up looking good (our fates are pretty much intertwined at this point).

I would remind everyone that solar angle means almost nothing to snowfall climatology in Ireland or the U.K., some of the worst snowstorms have been in February (1933, 1947, 1963, 2009 for example). In fact the peak of the snowfall season is probably the first half of February on a statistical basis. If you've only had half your seasonal snowfall to date, then, just sayin' ... :eek:

I'll offer 80% probability that there will be another major snowfall event in Ireland this winter, defined as 10 cms of snow or more at four or more of the eighteen stations in met.ie first-order reporting stations, or 20 cms or more at any two. Of course, that could be Dublin, Casement, Mullingar and Oak Park, leaving 80% of the country with no snow.

When's the most likely time for a snowstorm and return to severe cold? I would say around 24 Jan to 10 Feb, that period shows up in my research as having a cold set of analogues and high blocking index. But the window of opportunity opens around the 20th of January. Doesn't make any difference how mild it gets this week, 16 January 1947 was a very mild day too. :cool:

pistolpetes11

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

if im not wrong BB they were not expecting the front to stall and it came as somewhat of a surprise to most ?

yup.
I remember the forecast well,they forecast heavy sleet and snow for munster and south leinster overnight and this would clear away.They forecast some drifting especially on hills.
That was the forecast on the nine news.
It was already snowing hard in Arklow at that time and continued for over 48hrs.
The rest as they say is history.
Those events are very rare.

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

That 1982 event still remains number one for my location but because the pre Xmas snow locally measured 18 inches here,it now ranks 2nd,pushing jan '87 into third and february '91 into fourth place.

I'd say even the 1982 event would have been seconded by the blizzards of 1947. One such one hit on the 24th/25th February that year. A winter that had many instances where warmer air tried but failed to make progress over Ireland resulting in some prolonged and heavy snowfalls at times:





more charts here: http://homepage.ntlworld.com/gesc_b/Pages/SitePlan.htm

Oh of that I've no doubt but lol,I wasn't around then so can't comment.
I asked my dad what way the wind was blowing though and he said from the town [east] and he said the lane was blocked many times that winter so thats 10ft drifts or several jan '82 or worse events all in the one winter.

Incidently is there a current conditions thread for early 1947

Or at least newspaper archives with weather reports?

Min

Since I could understand the English language as a child, my father has talked about 1947 and the snow.
It really haunted him, the hardship at that time, food was still rationed after the war, he had gathered a lot of firewood before the snow came, he knew an east wind never brought anything good in the winter, he said it froze and froze for a good while before the snow came, so he had worked to get the firewood in, when the snow came he said you would only know where a ditch was by a tree sticking out of the snow.
Many farmers lost a lot of livestock, the summer of 1946 had been very wet summer and the winter fodder was not the best, very hard back then as it was only hay that was made.
It lasted on the hills a long time, in Kilkenny city they would say to him, 'you still have the snow up there', when it all melted Kilkenny city had some of it's worst floods.
He compares every snow event to 1947 and it was an east wind that blew no good.

Deep Easterly

White Briar wrote:

Or at least newspaper archives with weather reports?

From the Irish Times 1st Feb 1947:






The rest of that Februray turned out to be someing else...