O'Shea Not Running For Labour

jmcc

Looks like Brian O'Shea is not running for Labour in the GE:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0111/election.html

Regards...jmcc

Sully

Surprised about that I, always expected he would. Wonder who will take his place now!

Odats

Did they say on Billy Mac a girl who's surname is Conway cannot remember her first name will be running.
Don't know for sure but he had a big following in the city and I thought Seamus Ryan would get the nod to be honest.
We will have atleast 2 new TD's assuming Kenneally and Deasy get re-elected which I highly doubt Kenneally will get back.
Nice to see new blood getting the chance.

Sully

Ya iv heard of that conway girl in the past, just can't recall her name.

RodVelvet

Councillor Ciara Conway from Dungarvan possibly. Not sure if she would have much support in the city area though.

wagtail99

RodVelvet wrote: »

Councillor Ciara Conway from Dungarvan possibly. Not sure if she would have much support in the city area though.

I would be a natural Labour voter but I would never vote for her, when she ran for the local council in Dungarvan the last time she was just full of the usual political ****e e.g. If you were female, it was vote for me I'm a woman. If you were under 30, it was vote for me I'm young etc. Then depending on what side of the bridge you were from, it was my granny was a Noonan (or something) from this street in the town, or I live over in Abbeyside.
Now that she wants to run for the Dail it is, I am from Tramore, but I went to school at the Mercy in the city.

As Goucho Marx one said, "I refuse to join a club that would have me as a member", so I refuse to vote for a Labour Party that has Ciara Conway on it's ticket.

Seamus Ryan seems no great intellect either though, we need better people as our public representatives. So this time I'll have to look beyond the Labour Party to cast my vote.

AdMMM

This is a very interesting development. The Waterford constituency will be blown wide open! We have 2 seats left open from outgoing TD's and another seat that belongs to someone who probably prayed to the Baby Jesus for 7 seven months straight after he got in last time. There is so much to use against Kenneally in any campaign that I would be very surprised if he retains his seat. 2FG, 1SF and 1Ind almost looks like a possibility now!

dayshah

I'm not surprised. He's 66. If he ran he could be 71 by the time he retired. It was on the cards for a long time.

I'm inclined towards Labour, but never liked him.

ziedth

Would she be about 31 or so? From Clonea just outside Dungarvan? Think I went to school with her and knew her younger sisters pretty well.

Forget that actually, just realised it's Conway similar but different name.

Deise Tom

dayshah wrote: »

I'm not surprised. He's 66. If he ran he could be 71 by the time he retired. It was on the cards for a long time.

That is if the next Dail runs it course. I dont think it will.

Brian could come out of it well now at his age. A TD's Pension what is that worth, add in that of a Junior Minister (or was it a minister), and a teacher. He will be quids in.

dayshah

Deise Tom wrote: »

That is if the next Dail runs it course. I dont think it will.

True, but my point is he is already into retirement age. If I was in that situation I'd take the pension money and live it up for the next few years.

Trick of the Tail

Of course lots of them are retiring, they want to get their full, over-the-top retirement package before the new rules come in.

A.

nkay1985

This is absolutely massive. You can be sure Fine Gael will be throwing bodies at this constituency to try to secure a second seat. Labour will have to throw huge support to try to have a new candidate hold onto O'Shea's seat. All other parties and independents will see it as a real chance. Waterford could well turn into a very interesting battle ground.

rasper

I reckon all retiring TDs should be levied with a "Universal we f**ked the economy Levy/Tax" of say 90% on their generous pensions they are all weasaling off with.
Yes I do mean the opposition as well are equally to blame

Deise Tom

If Enda was to come out and as good as say that Waterford will have someone sitting on the front bench after the election, it could mean that the dog fight for the last two places could be an even greater one, as surley the majority of people would give Deasy and Coffey their number ones and twos.

rasper

FG/LAB are the same wasters as FF, hoping the electorate will finally have some more cop on when it comes to the day

Odats

I wouldn't be surprised if Kennealy retires aswell. Then it would make interesting situation for Waterford.
TBH if Labour want to retain their seat it is probably essential that they pick the right candidate as imo picking someone from the west of the county no disrespect but Deasy and Coffey would pull the most weight in the west and why would the city vote for someone if you aren't guaranteed representation in the city. I think it will be crucial for Labour to retain their seat in Waterford.
Could Halligan jump ship to Labour or remain as an independent candidate?
Will Fine Gael run 3 candidates possibly giving Cummins a dry run at a general election campaign as he would be potential next time around. Too young no expertise in crucial area but aren't most politicians like that in the latter.
Who will FF put up if Kenneally retires? I don't think Wyse is Dail material either and he barely got into the City Council.
I don't want to see a Sinner getting elected as the more seats they get the more chance of them getting into a coalition government and I don't want to see Gerry Adams as my Tanaiste.
I would like an independent in there but we have a tough road ahead.

jmcc

Odats wrote: »

I wouldn't be surprised if Kennealy retires aswell.

I was wondering about this when I saw some relative of his mentioning her family connection in the Local Elections literature. She didn't get elected but Wyse did which was probably a bit of a shock to the FFers.

Who will FF put up if Kenneally retires? I don't think Wyse is Dail material either and he barely got into the City Council.

Without Cullen, FF is in real trouble as FF tends to operate with a tweedledum and tweedledee strategy with a high profile candidate who drags in the lower profile candidate on transfers. It certainly makes things more interesting. There is a slight possibility of no FFer being returned in the next GE.

I don't want to see a Sinner getting elected as the more seats they get the more chance of them getting into a coalition government and I don't want to see Gerry Adams as my Tanaiste.
I would like an independent in there but we have a tough road ahead.

Perhaps you'd like to vote Green instead.

The one thing that worries me is that FG will screw up things again by running D'Arcy in the hope of a third seat. I don't think that the Waterford electorate could bear yet another bloody school teacher as TD. Look a the mess the current bunch of school teachers and village solicitors and a social worker or two made of things.

Regards...jmcc

Dan133269

wagtail99 wrote: »

Seamus Ryan seems no great intellect either though, we need better people as our public representatives. So this time I'll have to look beyond the Labour Party to cast my vote.

That's very unfair I think. I find him to be quite intelligent and articulate. He has a Waterford accent if that's what you're referring to. About 10 years ago we had a questions and answers session in Mount Sion seconday and we had Martin Cullen, few high profile business people and others there. I had no political allegiance back then but simply sat back and observed everything that was said. In my opinion, Seamus Ryan came across much better than everyone else present including Martin Cullen as regards his clarity of thought, expression and policy ideas.

And in any event, do you think our current or previous politicians were intellects? The only one that springs to mind to me was Noel Browne, also a Labour (amongst others) man from Waterford funnily enough.

Look at Jackie Healy Rae, Minister for Science Conor Lenihan endorsing books on creationism which refute evolution, Bertie Ahern etc, do these strike you as intellects?

jmcc wrote: »

Perhaps you'd like to vote Green instead.

The one thing that worries me is that FG will screw up things again by running D'Arcy in the hope of a third seat. I don't think that the Waterford electorate could bear yet another bloody school teacher as TD. Look a the mess the current bunch of school teachers and village solicitors and a social worker or two made of things.

Regards...jmcc

Odats voting Green, that'll be the day

I don't really think that personal occupation is all that important is it? And out of any profession solicitors are very important since the Dail is concerned with lawmaking, it is a house of our legislature the Oireachtas. There's seems to be a clear lack of economists however. We all remember the calamity that was Fine Gael's handling of George Lee affair.

Odats wrote: »

TBH if Labour want to retain their seat it is probably essential that they pick the right candidate as imo picking someone from the west of the county no disrespect but Deasy and Coffey would pull the most weight in the west and why would the city vote for someone if you aren't guaranteed representation in the city. I think it will be crucial for Labour to retain their seat in Waterford.

Yep Dungarvan candidate seems quite odd. I bet they will have 2nd candidate based in Waterford city. If now isn't the time to field 2 candidates, in light of the opinion polls, it will never be.

jmcc

Dan133269 wrote: »

I don't really think that personal occupation is all that important is it?

Yes it is. The morons in government are mainly school teachers. They can run for government because of the screwed up system that allows them to return to their jobs if they fail to get elected. These people are not the brightest or the best. While this does not apply to all school teachers, it seems that those who get elected are not well suited to teaching and are, in most cases, even less suited to governing competently based on the results we've seen. Other professions don't have the safety net of a job waiting for them if they fail to get elected. This means that the Dail is deprived of expertise and knowledge.

And out of any profession solicitors are very important since the Dail is concerned with lawmaking, it is a house of our legislature the Oireachtas.

And aren't the laws drafted by more competent people in the civil service? The current Taoiseach is a village solicitor - in addition to screwing up the country, he screwed up the economy as Minister for Finance.

There's seems to be a clear lack of economists however.

And a wealth of gombeens, pub owners, estate agents, teachers and solicitors. No engineers or scientists, are there? So much for the "smart" economy. You can't have a smart economy run by morons.

We all remember the calamity that was Fine Gael's handling of George Lee affair.

Well that didn't go well. I still think that Enda Kenny is FG's biggest liability and the more he is kept out of the public eye, the better it is for FG. Let Noonan and Bruton rip FF apart - they are good at that. Kenny always sounds like some primary school teacher trying to make a point in an out of control class. He just isn't media friendly and that's a fatal flaw in a media driven election. I'd really like to see Noonan go up against that useless fool Cowen in the leaders' debate. This GE is FG's to lose and given their ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, Labour may end up in the driving seat.

Regards...jmcc

Dan133269

jmcc wrote: »

Yes it is. The morons in government are mainly school teachers. They can run for government because of the screwed up system that allows them to return to their jobs if they fail to get elected. These people are not the brightest or the best. While this does not apply to all school teachers, it seems that those who get elected are not well suited to teaching and are, in most cases, even less suited to governing competently based on the results we've seen. Other professions don't have the safety net of a job waiting for them if they fail to get elected. This means that the Dail is deprived of expertise and knowledge.

And aren't the laws drafted by more competent people in the civil service? The current Taoiseach is a village solicitor - in addition to screwing up the country, he screwed up the economy as Minister for Finance.

Anyone can try and arrange with their employer a leave of absence to campaign for an election pending the outcome, some will be successful, some won't but it doesn't stop anyone running for elections. If you are unhappy with the crop of politicians on offer, then by all means you can put on a jersey and take the ball up yourself.

Yes laws are drawn up by draftspeople in the civil service after heads of policy are given by deputies. It would still be an advantage to be familiar with the legal system if one is engaging in making laws.
I don't see how being a "village" solicitor is such a drawback as compared to say what, a commercial solicitor in a large city centre firm?

Believe me, I am no fan of Brian Cowen and I was a critic of his long before 2008.

jmcc wrote: »

And a wealth of gombeens, pub owners, estate agents, teachers and solicitors. No engineers or scientists, are there? So much for the "smart" economy. You can't have a smart economy run by morons.

I agree, but such is the will of the electorate. As is the will of the electorate of Mayo to re-elect Beverly Flynn, having been shown to have encouraged people to commit fraud and rob the State of tax money. The unfortunate reality is, and this is a fact, people vote with their pockets. The only reason people are now turning against FF is because the economy is in tatters. The health and education system were both in shambles before the crash and FF enjoyed overwhelming support.

jmcc wrote: »

Kenny always sounds like some primary school teacher trying to make a point in an out of control class.

jmcc wrote: »

This GE is FG's to lose and given their ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, Labour may end up in the driving seat.

I hope so

jmcc

Dan133269 wrote: »

Anyone can try and arrange with their employer a leave of absence to campaign for an election pending the outcome, some will be successful, some won't but it doesn't stop anyone running for elections.

It is somewhat different for teachers from what I've read. The teacher TDs are allowed to take sabaticals from their job and schools can't hire permanent teachers to replace them when they are in the Dail.

If you are unhappy with the crop of politicians on offer, then by all means you can put on a jersey and take the ball up yourself.

I don't think you would like how I would solve problems - let's say there would be no pensions or salaries for traitors.

I don't see how being a "village" solicitor is such a drawback as compared to say what, a commercial solicitor in a large city centre firm?

Wills, pub licence applications and conveyancing brings such a wealth of legal experience to framing legislation, doesn't it?

I hope so

What worries me about Labour is that it is really into quangos for the usual unemployable middle class whingeing Deefers. It should be interesting to see who Labour runs in Waterford. I think that a lot of the soft FF vote will drift that way.

And, if I am not mistaken, it was a Labourite who "upgraded" all of the regional technical colleges to ITs when Waterford was supposed to be the only one upgraded.

Regards...jmcc

Dan133269

jmcc wrote: »

I don't think you would like how I would solve problems - let's say there would be no pensions or salaries for traitors.

I would like that!

jmcc wrote: »

Wills, pub licence applications and conveyancing brings such a wealth of legal experience to framing legislation, doesn't it?

Well it's more the legal training whether in college or in Blackhall place that helps to develop the legal, analytical, logical type of thinking that is relevant. That's what I'm getting at.

jmcc wrote: »

What worries me about Labour is that it is really into quangos for the usual unemployable middle class whingeing Deefers. It should be interesting to see who Labour runs in Waterford. I think that a lot of the soft FF vote will drift that way.

And, if I am not mistaken, it was a Labourite who "upgraded" all of the regional technical colleges to ITs when Waterford was supposed to be the only one upgraded.

Regards...jmcc

I don't know what quangos or deefers mean?

Possibly Labour who upgraded all the colleges, I'm not sure, bit before my time. It was Labour who abolished third level fees however.

deise blue

Sorry to see Brian retire , an honourable and decent man who always took time to investigate and respond to queries I raised with him - hope he has a long and happy retirement.

Despite Brian's retirement I would be confident of Labour getting one seat and battling for a second.

jmcc

Dan133269 wrote: »

Well it's more the legal training whether in college or in Blackhall place that helps to develop the legal, analytical, logical type of thinking that is relevant. That's what I'm getting at.

I think it might be a bit overrated though. Having a degree or professional qualification is no guarantee of logical or analytical thinking.

I don't know what quangos or deefers mean?

Quasi Autonomous Non Govermental Organisation. Basically some committee do-gooder operation where the political parties plant their supporters. Most of them are completely useless and just an excuse to give taxpayer money to a bunch of political appointees. The Deefers are Dublin D4 and wannabes.

Possibly Labour who upgraded all the colleges, I'm not sure, bit before my time. It was Labour who abolished third level fees however.

If Labour handled things well in Waterford, there could possibly be two seats for them but some people have long memories. The Left in Waterford tends to become prominent when times are hard. Some people still consider Labour to be a Left wing party though and might just vote for FG rather than Labour - again it is probably the 30 to 60 year old demographic that might change voting patterns. SF may be far stronger in the under 30s demographic than FF/FG/Lab individually and it is possible that the outcome in Waterford could be 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF.

Regards...jmcc

Smiley Burnett

first things first---

Labour

There is no other way of looking at this retirement other than being a disaster for labour. Brian O'Shea could not have picked a worse time to announce his retirement. We are only a matter of weeks from polling day and Labour have yet to announce a candidate, whilst all the others are out campaigning and canvassing!! The blame for not naming a second candidate lies squarely with OShea. The reality is that he resisted having a second candidate on the ballot paper.

If Labour stand a second county-based candidate it could be a disaster for them. This happened in 1969 when Tom Brennan was put on the ticket alonside sitting TD Tom Kyne. Vote split down the middle and the seat was lost. It took Brian OShea twenty years to win it back!!
what Labour needs to do is stand one city-based candidate as this is where o'shea received the majority of his vote. The labour organisation throughout the county needs to get behind that candidate to ensure their election. (people tend to forget that Labour is badly split in Waterford and the current scenario will make this worse, unless they can somehow unite behind Ryan or Halligan, if he was to jump ship!)

The reality is that Ciara Conway or Billy Kyne wouldnt even have the full support of the Labour Branch in Dungarvan!! Remember that Labour lost a seat in the local Elections in the Dungarvan electoral area!!!!! (and then you have people talking rubbish about "rising stars" etc!!)

Fine Gael

2 candidates selected and this strategy wont change in my opinion. It would be a disaster for Coffey if the organisation in the city was to somehow throw their weight behind someone like john cummins, so i fully expect fg to run 2 candidates--coffey and deasy.

right now the odds favour both being elected. FG are well organised throughout the constituency and the healthy rivalry that exists between the candidates will ensure that no stone will be left unturned by either candidate in search of votes!

Fianna Fail---kenneally will win a seat. there are enough ff votes throughout the constituency to elect a TD and right now ff have no decent second candidate, so i believe that the longer ff leave it before picking a candidate, then the easier it will be for kenneally!! make no mistake--Fianna Fail voters and die-hards havent gone away you know!!!

Sinn Fein--their performance is potentially the most interesting of them all. SF were confident in 2007 of making a breakthrough in Waterford, yet their vote remained static. This surprised a lot of people (including myself) as it was felt that they had a good campaign, and had 3 councillors working on the ground in the previous 3 years. Cullinane really should have done better in 2007, but it was a false dawn for sinn fein.

now, people are putting him in with a chance of a seat, but you need to bear the following in mind;
cullinane's vote halved in local elections in 2009 from his position in 2004.
sinn fein lost a city councillor, at a time when they wanted to actually finish off the workers party/halligan.
halligan destroyed cullinane in his own electoral ward. if he does the same in this election, then cullinane is going nowhere.
sinn fein failed to get someone elected on to tramore town council, even though they got a new councillor in the wider tramore area for the county council. The fact that cullinane lives in kilkenny wont help his cause either!!!

on the positive side for cullinane is the fact that sinn fein will get votes throughout the county, whereas halligan will struggle once he leaves waterford city.

right now i reckon, 2 fg, 1 ff, last seat between lab, halligan and sf!

(IF HALLIGAN GOES TO LABOUR ITS HELLO DAIL EIREANN!)

fricatus

jmcc wrote: »

I'd really like to see Noonan go up against that useless fool Cowen in the leaders' debate.

That's like my political deathmatch fantasy!

Predictor

Odats wrote: »

Will Fine Gael run 3 candidates possibly giving Cummins a dry run at a general election campaign as he would be potential next time around. Too young no expertise in crucial area but aren't most politicians like that in the latter.

I think you could be right on this one Odats, FG have to be reconsidering their strategy now that they have 2 sure seats wrapped up as I believe they do. If this is the thinking they should be looking at running someone like Cummins who is young in this election, not only would he transfer to the FG candidates, he would most likely keep Halligan & Cullinane's vote down.

Labour have made a big mistake here by not putting a second candidate into the field long ago, even if it was only for name recognition. The by-election gave them the perfect opportunity to do so but their strategy has failed. They have gone in my opinion from nearlly topping the poll to struggling to hold the last seat.

Major winners are not Cullinane and Halligan as one would imagine due to their left leanings. I say this because O'shea's vote was largely personal. Funny I think Kenneally Coffey and Deasy (especially the later) will benefit the most.

If FG ran Cummins, more than likely he wouldn't win a seat, 3 would be a crazy call but I think there is potential there in him. But what it may do is keep Halligan and Cullinane down, bare in mind they are in ward 3 & he managed to beat Cullinane in the locals.

Predictor predicts 1. Deasy 2. Coffey 3. Halligan 4. Cullinane or Kenneally

However if FG run a third (Cummins) I predict;

1. Deasy 2. Coffey 3. Kenneally 4. Labour, Cullinane or Halligan!

All to play for Ladies and Gents!!!

Partizan

Halligan has it. With O'Shea now bowing out of the field, Labour will be in disarray and John Halligan will benefit most. It's his now to lose. He hasn't being presented with a better opportunity.

and no he wont join Labour.

Daysha

Smiley Burnett wrote: »

2 candidates selected and this strategy wont change in my opinion. It would be a disaster for Coffey if the organisation in the city was to somehow throw their weight behind someone like john cummins, so i fully expect fg to run 2 candidates--coffey and deasy.

What about Jim D'Arcy? He ran in 2007 and did quite poorly if I remember correctly.

Deise Tom

Partizan wrote: »

Halligan has it.

and no he wont join Labour.

HAs he got it. I have heard that of the three electorate areas in the city, the only place he is popular is the area he lives. He has to get out and about and into the county if he wants to be elected. OK he mentioned he has been to Dungarvan and Tramore in some interview there before christmas. If he is serious about been elected he has to go an knock on doors in other areas that are well away from the major centres of population and listen to what is said, and accept it if people tell him straight to his face that they disaprove of him standing in picket lines etc especially while he was a mayor. He and others have to remember that the people in these areas have a vote as well.

If he does join Labour it will show alot about him to the people. I have said it before and will say it again, When he was with the Workers Party he did not want to know about packs. When he felt that there was a chance he could be mayor he left them and decided that getting involved in packs was not a bad thing, MAYBE. Joining a party now to try and get extra votes could be seen as another way of trying to show he might be only involved for self interest.

I know he would not be the first to change ship to try and for a place at the table closer to the person sitting at the top of it and he wont be the last.

nkay1985

I don't see Halligan jumping ship again. I think it'd be hard to explain away a second change in political ideology in a very short space of time. I still can't see him being elected as an independent though. Being mayor got him good exposure inn other parts of the city but that's not to say those areas would vote for him, not to mention the county where he's basically unknown a d has no core party vote to rely on.

I think FG would be mental to put a third candidate forward. The reality is that they'll have two seats effectively wrapped up so would do well not to get greedy because ere's hardly going to be enough votes here for three FG TDs.

If FF had any kind of strong candidate at all I'd be fairly confident of them retaining a seat but Kenneally is just awful. There will still be a core FF vote in Waterford and it might well be enough to get someone elected but we live in hope that this isn't the case!

With regard to the Labour candidate, I'm fairly sure Seamus Ryan can't run for health reasons or something like that. I could be wrong on that but I have that in my head.

If this was the 2007 election I could see David Cullinane getting elected but with his vote stalling in the 2007 GE and then getting hit hard in his own ward in the last locals he could struggle to take advantage. Although a lot of that hit was the result of some very negative campaigning by other candidates which might not go down too well in a GE.

All to play for.