Red C Poll Results - latest Jan'11

Sully

Tis me again... with another update from the boyos doing polls. This time, its from the Red C for the Sunday Business Post.

Fianna Fail stands at 17%, Fine Gael gained one point to 34%, Labour has slipped four points to 23%, the Greens are down one to 2%, Sinn Fein are up three points to 14% and Independents and Others are also up by two to 10%.

The last Sunday Business Post Poll was at the end of November.

What does this tell me? Fine Gael are consistently being the highest, strongest party at the moment doing well in the 30s and now at 34% which is a great achievement and is a bit of egg in the face (*awaits denials*) for those knocking FG saying they should be around 35%. The rise keeps in line with polls back as far as 2004, presumably indicating that people are now settling that Fine Gael are the best alternative for the country - Noonan without a doubt making the difference with his budget speech. Noonan or Burton for Finance Minister? Noonan for me id say.

Labours sharp rise has continued to fall, meaning their rise in support was a temporary shock to their system. Possibly people reading into the policies they have released, mostly around finance one would see its mostly taxation which is off putting. I can't say Gilmore or Burton has been stunning with their budget talks, or recent performances. The Gilmore gale is slowing down, but it seems mostly to be a two man band at least in the eyes of the media.

SFs rise in support is the overall drop in support for FF/Lab and the possibility of additional people now voting for the left rather then not voting at all. Fresh votes. If you look at SF support over last 3 polls (Sun-RedC, MRBI, SBP-RedC) support is actually dropping, gradually. The Adams Gale stuttering to a halt? 16% -> 15% -> 14%. What next? Back to normality? Twas an odd bump up to stutter back down.

FF - I think this is the core voters. FF have done little since the last poll to further push people away from the party and perhaps its a good thing with ministers not running. A fresh set of faces - move out the stale politicians which screwed us over. Can they really scrape the end of the barrel?

kenco

Sully wrote: »

Tis me again... with another update from the boyos doing polls. This time, its from the Red C for the Sunday Business Post.

Fianna Fail stands at 17%, Fine Gael gained one point to 34%, Labour has slipped four points to 23%, the Greens are down one to 2%, Sinn Fein are up three points to 14% and Independents and Others are also up by two to 10%.

The last Sunday Business Post Poll was at the end of November.

What does this tell me? Fine Gael are consistently being the highest, strongest party at the moment doing well in the 30s and now at 34% which is a great achievement and is a bit of egg in the face (*awaits denials*) for those knocking FG saying they should be around 35%. The rise keeps in line with polls back as far as 2004, presumably indicating that people are now settling that Fine Gael are the best alternative for the country - Noonan without a doubt making the difference with his budget speech. Noonan or Burton for Finance Minister? Noonan for me id say.

Labours sharp rise has continued to fall, meaning their rise in support was a temporary shock to their system. Possibly people reading into the policies they have released, mostly around finance one would see its mostly taxation which is off putting. I can't say Gilmore or Burton has been stunning with their budget talks, or recent performances. The Gilmore gale is slowing down, but it seems mostly to be a two man band at least in the eyes of the media.

SFs rise in support is the overall drop in support for FF/Lab and the possibility of additional people now voting for the left rather then not voting at all. Fresh votes. If you look at SF support over last 3 polls (Sun-RedC, MRBI, SBP-RedC) support is actually dropping, gradually. The Adams Gale stuttering to a halt? 16% -> 15% -> 14%. What next? Back to normality? Twas an odd bump up to stutter back down.

FF - I think this is the core voters. FF have done little since the last poll to further push people away from the party and perhaps its a good thing with ministers not running. A fresh set of faces - move out the stale politicians which screwed us over. Can they really scrape the end of the barrel?

Hard to say still. I think people are numbed with our Politicians at this point.

Gut feel is that drop in Lab is right they will do well but not ground changingly.
FG most popular party but will it translate?
FF support understaten and they will do better than expected
Sinn Fein wont translate this but they may still get 10 seats or so

Dont know why exactly but I am reminded of the last Kinnock election (early 90s) where it looked a done deal (even for the pollers) only for Major to grab victory from the jaws of defeat....

FG need a big increase in support which is not coming through in the polls....

bmaxi

I honestly feel that the decisions of prominent FF TDs and Ministers not to seek re-election are not purely personal. The party thinks that if those associated with the major fcuk ups and scandals are not in the public eye, Ireland's notoriously stupid electorate will also disassociate FF from those same fcuk ups and scandals. Who knows? They could be right

Irish Slaves for Europe

The incredibly short memory of the electorate is at show here with support for FF slowly beginning to rise. This will be only serve to encourage FF to wait until the end of 2011 before having the election.

Iwasfrozen

Irish Slaves for Europe wrote: »

The incredibly short memory of the electorate is at show here with support for FF slowly beginning to rise. This will be only serve to encourage FF to wait until the end of 2011 before having the election.

emm, do you know "Irish slaves for Europe" that it's the Greens calling this election, not FF?

Irish Slaves for Europe

The greens are only doing what FF tell them at this stage, if the greens had any say in it they would have stated the date for the election when questioned on the matter by Eamon Gilmore recently.

amacachi

Gonna be a FG/Lab coalition. I was going to say I don't see how there's any doubt about it but it's that tiny glimmer of hope that's going to make me bother to vote in the hope we could get FG in on their own.

Irish Slaves for Europe

do FG need labour? what about FG/Greens?

Agent Smith

If this poll is to believed, Greens are polling within the margin of error. so at 2% theu could be at 5 or -1%.

I'm more inclined to believe the latter, I cant imagine many non goverment supporters transfering to greens. I know i wont be.

K-9

FG should be around this territory. As for Noonan being a positive, that remains to be seen. I'd put Bruton way ahead of Noonan and I think a Enda/Noonan ticket is a serious lack of judgement on FG's part, could be the difference between annihilation of FF and respectability.

Labour are probably near their vote, how 25% will transfer to seats is the big question.

FF will get around 20-22%, they just have too much national coverage.

SF are over estimated. When it comes to election time, they'll get 11/12% and Independents, Greens the rest.

later12

bmaxi wrote: »

I honestly feel that the decisions of prominent FF TDs and Ministers not to seek re-election are not purely personal. The party thinks that if those associated with the major fcuk ups and scandals are not in the public eye, Ireland's notoriously stupid electorate will also disassociate FF from those same fcuk ups and scandals. Who knows? They could be right

I think that is just an added bonus as many FFers would see it. I really doubt that these resignations are selfless bestowals of kindness upon their colleagues.

However, I could almost see Meath campaigners face-palming when I read about Noel Dempsey's commitment to campaigning for FF during the upcoming General Election.

I'm sure they just wish he'd f*ck back off to Malta for a few weeks instead.

GSF

Agent Smith wrote: »

If this poll is to believed, Greens are polling within the margin of error. so at 2% theu could be at 5 or -1%.

I'm more inclined to believe the latter, I cant imagine many non goverment supporters transfering to greens. I know i wont be.

2% nationally could equally mean 0% in 40 constituencies and perhaps 8% in 2 constitutiencies. Difficult to know if the Greens will get any seats next time but you'd have to think they will hold maybe 1 or 2 based on personal votes.

Eliot Rosewater

Sully wrote: »

Fine Gael are consistently being the highest, strongest party at the moment doing well in the 30s and now at 34% which is a great achievement

Sully, I think your analysis here and in the last thread fails to acknowledge that Fine Gael are the principal opposition party to the most unpopular government in the history of the state. Granted, in a normal time 34% would be a good result, but given the context, and given an electorate basically crying out for a strong alternative, 34% is, well, meh. Like, Fianna Fail haven't polled lower than 39% in an election since 1933. There's clearly a failing on Fine Gael's part here not to be able to even try for a single-party majority government.

Bottle_of_Smoke

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Sully, I think your analysis here and in the last thread fails to acknowledge that Fine Gael are the principal opposition party to the most unpopular government in the history of the state. Granted, in a normal time 34% would be a good result, but given the context, and given an electorate basically crying out for a strong alternative, 34% is, well, meh. Like, Fianna Fail haven't polled lower than 39% in an election since 1933. There's clearly a failing on Fine Gael's part here not to be able to even try for a single-party majority government.

I think you are being overly negative about FG. I don't agree they are the principal opposition. They are the largest opposition party sure - but this isn't the same thing. Labour also have big support and SF to a lesser extent. So when support for FF goes down all the other parties will see an increase in support not just the largest one

later12

My prediction is not based on polls, but I would put the FF seat numbers in the 31st Dail at a grand total of 50. That would put them into a position of a Green-Labour Coalition, which will obviously not materialise, or at least not soon.

Agent Smith wrote: »

If this poll is to believed, Greens are polling within the margin of error. so at 2% theu could be at 5 or -1%.

I'm more inclined to believe the latter, I cant imagine many non government supporters transferring to greens. I know i wont be.

It's funny I actually think I will, if I am in Ireland, transfer to the Greens (given that John Gormley's is the constituency where I am registered and I believe in him as an individual politician and Minister - and I really abhor the idea of a Labour coalition even more than a Green coalition.

My vote will probably be FG-Green.

deise blue

A FG / Labour coalition is still odds on.

In such an event Joan Burton almost certainly will be Finance Minister.

later12

deise blue wrote: »

A FG / Labour coalition is still odds on.

In such an event Joan Burton almost certainly will be Finance Minister.

You mean Enterprise Minister, surely.

If that droning wagon is ever trusted with the national calculator I'll post a picture of myself naked eating my own hat on these boards.

Iwasfrozen

later10 wrote: »

You mean Enterprise Minister, surely.

If that droning wagon is ever trusted with the national calculator I'll post a picture of myself naked eating my own hat on these boards.

There's a good chance you'll rue saying that.

deise blue

later10 wrote: »

You mean Enterprise Minister, surely.

If that droning wagon is ever trusted with the national calculator I'll post a picture of myself naked eating my own hat on these boards.

I look forward to reminding you of this promise.

T runner

later10 wrote: »

You mean Enterprise Minister, surely.

If that droning wagon is ever trusted with the national calculator I'll post a picture of myself naked eating my own hat on these boards.

Please dont.

Why the "droning wagon" insult though? You dont like the way she speaks therefore shes a wagon and not to e trusted with the national purse.

Youe opinion there doesnt seem to add up to much.

later12

You dont like the way she speaks therefore shes a wagon

Oh no. Her droning is quite separate to her wagonly qualities.

Eliot Rosewater

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

I think you are being overly negative about FG. I don't agree they are the principal opposition. They are the largest opposition party sure - but this isn't the same thing.

Well, it kind of is. When people are looking for an alternative to FF their first port of call is the next biggest party that is also similar enough to it in policy terms. The 2-and-a-half party state and all that.

irishh_bob

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

I think you are being overly negative about FG. I don't agree they are the principal opposition. They are the largest opposition party sure - but this isn't the same thing. Labour also have big support and SF to a lesser extent. So when support for FF goes down all the other parties will see an increase in support not just the largest one

outside dublin , labour are non existent and irelevant to most voters , the dublin media often forget that thier are more seats to be won outside the capital than inside it , FG and FF dominate outside dublin so therfore thier is only one party who can capitalise on the unprecedented collapse in support for FF , this has not happened in any real commanding sense

FG should be on 45% minimum right now such is the cataclyismic change in the countrys fortunes since 2007 , labour have more than doubled thier support since 2007 , had FG achieved something similar , they would be on close to 60% now

Bottle_of_Smoke

irishh_bob wrote: »

outside dublin , labour are non existent and irelevant to most voters , the dublin media often forget that thier are more seats to be won outside the capital than inside it , FG and FF dominate outside dublin so therfore thier is only one party who can capitalise on the unprecedented collapse in support for FF , this has not happened in any real commanding sense

FG should be on 45% minimum right now such is the cataclyismic change in the countrys fortunes since 2007 , labour have more than doubled thier support since 2007 , had FG achieved something similar , they would be on close to 60% now

Be interesting to see what the polls would look like if Dublin was excluded actually

Eliot Rosewater wrote:

Well, it kind of is. When people are looking for an alternative to FF their first port of call is the next biggest party that is also similar enough to it in policy terms. The 2-and-a-half party state and all that.

I think that is too simplistic for Ireland when you consider the civil war politics mentality that still prevails. Ex-FF voters still don't like Fine Gael even though policies are similar.

later12

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

I think that is too simplistic for Ireland when you consider the civil war politics mentality that still prevails. Ex-FF voters still don't like Fine Gael even though policies are similar.

Who have you ever, ever heard citing the Civil War as a reason for their voting choice?

Because the only people I ever here even mentioning the Civil war outside of historical debates are those who push the above garbage.

irishh_bob

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

Be interesting to see what the polls would look like if Dublin was excluded actually



I think that is too simplistic for Ireland when you consider the civil war politics mentality that still prevails. Ex-FF voters still don't like Fine Gael even though policies are similar.

FG shouldnt be reliant on the former FF vote to be higher in the polls , most of the swing vote has left FF since 2007 but very little of it has made its way over to FG , this despite the fact that most of that swing vote didnt work in the public sector ( labour are not its natural home ) and is now unemployed , they say breakfast roll man won it for FF in 2007 , the problem for FG is that breakfast roll man is not convinced by enda , kenny is what makes the swing vote think twice about voting FG , hence the 25% of voters who are unsure who to vote for

Liam Byrne

later10 wrote: »

Who have you ever, ever heard citing the Civil War as a reason for their voting choice?

Because the only people I ever here even mentioning the Civil war outside of historical debates are those who push the above garbage.

Do a search on boards for sneery terms like "blueshirts"

later12

In fairness, I use the term blueshirts at a personal level between friends and acquaintances - I doubt anyone seriously still votes on Irregular or Pro Treaty voting lines in this country and the suggestion should be put to bed (not to mention that the blue shirts technically had nothing to do with the Civil War).

I think it is a common Labour slur to be honest (not from all Labour supporters by any means) somehow insinuating that theirs is the true ideology based party.

Oasis_Dublin

later10 wrote: »

(not to mention that the blue shirts technically had nothing to do with the Civil War).

Technically?!

Sully

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Sully, I think your analysis here and in the last thread fails to acknowledge that Fine Gael are the principal opposition party to the most unpopular government in the history of the state. Granted, in a normal time 34% would be a good result, but given the context, and given an electorate basically crying out for a strong alternative, 34% is, well, meh. Like, Fianna Fail haven't polled lower than 39% in an election since 1933. There's clearly a failing on Fine Gael's part here not to be able to even try for a single-party majority government.

Fine Gael have been the principal opposition party for a very long time, not just FFs unpopularity. They did very well in the last GE also and throughout Local and European ones. So while FF is deeply unpopular - and I don't believe the polls are accurate with their vote, but thats because people will change on the voting day - FG have reached 34%. Its a very tough task to reach above and beyond a FF figure who have been in power for so long and were loved by the people as the opposition were always dismissed. No matter how unpopular FF drop in one government cycle, I wouldn't expect any government to rob their peak and go above it.

It would be a miracle switch. People have moved over, but there are a lot of core FF people who dropped and are very very slow to move to FG. Labour will have most of the public sector support when FG have pretty much indicated they will be sorting out that mess when elected. Based on the tough honest speaking from Kenny and party policy - I cant see FG, who are in opposition years and never seen as the most popular party, running away with it. Its not possible. Labour have done so well because it was populism and refusal to spell out what they would do.

Simple thinking in mind: Who would you vote for? A party which has promised major reform and possible loss of cushy numbers, one with hard policy but ones which plan on not being unfair? Or one which effectively promised everything would be rosy and a leader to go with it who people were inspired by? Then look at the switch over; FF depart in their droves moved somewhere. Where? Would they stomach a move to their bitter rivals, FG? Or move left for a fresh alternative approach? Or to a party promising the world and its mother?

It just doesn't work from my view.

deise blue wrote: »

A FG / Labour coalition is still odds on.

In such an event Joan Burton almost certainly will be Finance Minister.

Not a chance. Kenny as leader, Noonan Finance. I cant see FG budging on such important roles. FG want to be the head guys, the main leaders, the ones who are pushing ahead with major reform and fixing the economy without taxing the ****e out of everyone. They wont have an odd balance with a Labour FF Ministerial.

K-9

Sully wrote: »

Fine Gael have been the principal opposition party for a very long time, not just FFs unpopularity. They did very well in the last GE also and throughout Local and European ones. So while FF is deeply unpopular - and I don't believe the polls are accurate with their vote, but thats because people will change on the voting day - FG have reached 34%. Its a very tough task to reach above and beyond a FF figure who have been in power for so long and were loved by the people as the opposition were always dismissed. No matter how unpopular FF drop in one government cycle, I wouldn't expect any government to rob their peak and go above it.

It would be a miracle switch. People have moved over, but there are a lot of core FF people who dropped and are very very slow to move to FG. Labour will have most of the public sector support when FG have pretty much indicated they will be sorting out that mess when elected. Based on the tough honest speaking from Kenny and party policy - I cant see FG, who are in opposition years and never seen as the most popular party, running away with it. Its not possible. Labour have done so well because it was populism and refusal to spell out what they would do.

Simple thinking in mind: Who would you vote for? A party which has promised major reform and possible loss of cushy numbers, one with hard policy but ones which plan on not being unfair? Or one which effectively promised everything would be rosy and a leader to go with it who people were inspired by? Then look at the switch over; FF depart in their droves moved somewhere. Where? Would they stomach a move to their bitter rivals, FG? Or move left for a fresh alternative approach? Or to a party promising the world and its mother?

It just doesn't work from my view.




Not a chance. Kenny as leader, Noonan Finance. I cant see FG budging on such important roles. FG want to be the head guys, the main leaders, the ones who are pushing ahead with major reform and fixing the economy without taxing the ****e out of everyone. They wont have an odd balance with a Labour FF Ministerial.

Garret Fitzgerald managed 39% and that was in a time of FF Vs. FG sentiment with Labour an after thought.

FG should be aiming for that, which would result in around 65-70 seats and would make a FG/SF coalition a real possibility with SF very much a minor coalition party, unlike Labour.

FG have a golden opportunity of not needing Labour here. Why they aren't near that in opinion polls should be worrying FG supporters, not a reason to defend their leader.

johnnyskeleton

Sully wrote: »

What does this tell me? Fine Gael are consistently being the highest, strongest party at the moment doing well in the 30s and now at 34% which is a great achievement and is a bit of egg in the face (*awaits denials*) for those knocking FG saying they should be around 35%. The rise keeps in line with polls back as far as 2004, presumably indicating that people are now settling that Fine Gael are the best alternative for the country - Noonan without a doubt making the difference with his budget speech. Noonan or Burton for Finance Minister? Noonan for me id say.

Given what has happened, FG should be in the region of 45%, Labour 30% 10-15% among the independents, and 0% for FF. Sadly though that is not the case.

Sully wrote: »

Labours sharp rise has continued to fall, meaning their rise in support was a temporary shock to their system. Possibly people reading into the policies they have released, mostly around finance one would see its mostly taxation which is off putting. I can't say Gilmore or Burton has been stunning with their budget talks, or recent performances. The Gilmore gale is slowing down, but it seems mostly to be a two man band at least in the eyes of the media.

I think more likely it is the rise in popularity of SF and other left wing groups has taken a bit of Labour's support away

Oasis_Dublin

K-9 wrote: »

FG should be aiming for that, which would result in around 65-70 seats and would make a FG/SF coalition a real possibility with SF very much a minor coalition party, unlike Labour.

Fine Gael would never go into coalition with Sinn Féin. Are you mad?!

K-9 wrote: »

FG have a golden opportunity of not needing Labour here. Why they aren't near that in opinion polls should be worrying FG supporters, not a reason to defend their leader.

I don't think anyone in FG could lead the party to an out and out election victory. They have never achieved one and it last achieved even by FF in 1982 (for less than a year at that) and properly under Lynch in 77. FG can never be that big unfortunately.

K-9

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

Fine Gael would never go into coalition with Sinn Féin. Are you mad?!

If it involves say, 2 senior ministerial positions instead of 6/7?
Are FG above internal party politicking? I'd say all the their politicking re Kenny and Bruton suggests no.

Oasis_Dublin wrote:

I don't think anyone in FG could lead the party to an out and out election victory. They have never achieved one and it last achieved even by FF in 1982 (for less than a year at that) and properly under Lynch in 77. FG can never be that big unfortunately.

I'd check your facts on FF having a majority in 1982, Tony Gregory and Tiomas McGiolla would be turning in their graves!

Oasis_Dublin

K-9 wrote: »

If it involves say, 2 senior ministerial positions instead of 6/7?
Are FG above internal party politicking? I'd say all the their politicking re Kenny and Bruton suggests no.




I'd check your facts on FF having a majority in 1982, Tony Gregory and Tiomas McGiolla would be turning in their graves!

They absolutely will not go into coalition with Sinn Féin, that much I would guarantee. FF supporters might accept it at a push, FG supporters never would.

Fine, in government without any other party since '82 then!

TheGodBen

irishh_bob wrote: »

outside dublin , labour are non existent and irelevant to most voters

The constituencies of Cork East, Cork North Central, Cork South Central, Galway West, Kildare North, Kildare South, Limerick East, Longford-Westmeath, Waterford, Wexford and Wicklow would like to have a word with you. And in case you can't count, that adds up to 11, which means that 55% of Labour's TDs come from outside Dublin.

I think what you mean to say is that Labour does badly outside urban areas, but there's more than one urban area in this country. There, you're right, in many rural constituencies they don't even manage more than 2% of the 1st preference votes. For Labour to pick up seats they need to pick up second seats in the areas where they currently have 1, but the local party organisations aren't used to that sort of thing. Some of the redrawn constituencies don't help them either.

Jayuu

For those saying that FG should be on 40%-45% I don't think you're doing a reasonable analysis of the figures.

While FF voters tend to be from right across the political spectrum there has always been a large amount of FF support that is concentrated in what would normally be fertile territory for Lab and SF.

It is to FF's credit that they have been able to present themselves as a political movement that they have held quite a broad coalition of support for so long. Now that there vote is fragmenting its not surprising that a huge amount of it is going naturally back towards to main left-wing party and to the main republican party.

FF have dropped 24% in this poll on their figure since the 2007 General Election. For FG to have picked up almost a third of that vote is actually remarkable given the normal antipathy that FF votes would have for FG. I know a couple of FF supporters who are outraged with what has happened over the last two years but the idea of voting for FG would never even cross their minds. At best they may vote Labour and transfer to FF but I reckon they will still vote for FF when push comes to shove.

It also has to be said that there is a huge amount of a protest vote going around and that vote is floating to whoever tends to offer the most populist option. Up to recently Labour had been doing that but now that they've more or less realised the economic reality that we are facing their support is ebbing. SF, however, continue to spout the easy populist options and they are picking up that support now.

The challenge for FG (and also for Lab) is to effectively attack the SF position that we somehow can burn bondholders, reject any money from the EU/IMF, cut nothing and still somehow make ends meet. Its fantasy economics which would destroy the country but it appeals to people because it seems like an easy option and that's what we've always voted for in this country.

Bottle_of_Smoke

later10 wrote: »

Who have you ever, ever heard citing the Civil War as a reason for their voting choice?

Because the only people I ever here even mentioning the Civil war outside of historical debates are those who push the above garbage.

People say ''we're a FF voting family'' or ''I'd never vote FG because of my family history''

Donegal SW was perhaps a sign the former may be ending but I think the latter will be anytime soon

maccored

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

They absolutely will not go into coalition with Sinn Féin, that much I would guarantee. FF supporters might accept it at a push, FG supporters never would.

Fine, in government without any other party since '82 then!

I think its guaranteed SF wouldnt join with either FF or FG anyway.

later12

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

People say ''we're a FF voting family'' or ''I'd never vote FG because of my family history''

So what? I come from a FF voting family, have canvassed for FF and yet I vote FG... and I have a sister who works with a labour representative - don't be so certain about what you might call civil war politics based solely upon perceived or stated family loyalties.

Lots of people actually have no idea what their Great grandparents were doing around 1922, if anything. There were a number of Government changes in the 1950s - not all voters stick to family trends.

Unless your grandfather was Michael Collins or Frank Aiken you're not very likely to think of them at the polling booth. The Civil War hypothesis is complete BS.

Oasis_Dublin

maccored wrote: »

I think its guaranteed SF wouldnt join with either FF or FG anyway.

Aye, probably so.

K-9

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

They absolutely will not go into coalition with Sinn Féin, that much I would guarantee. FF supporters might accept it at a push, FG supporters never would.

Fine, in government without any other party since '82 then!

I don't think anybody can guarantee anything until we know the number of seats, remember the Greens, but sure FG are different you say? Well, soundings were made to SF in 07, so even then, it wasn't ruled out by Enda.

If FG get over 65 seats, which is possible though I'd say unlikely with Kenny as leader as it means 38/39% of the vote, the situation has changed. Kenny will definitely look at his options. Completely denying that he might look at SF if the numbers add up is unrealistic.

FG 70 and SF 14 gives an over all majority and is possible, particularly with FF losing seats all over the country, all they have to do is gain less than 20 seats. To do that, they need over 38/39% going on previous elections, though this one is going to be hard to predict.

Kenny has been very slow to talk about SF and I'd say that is the main reason. He doesn't want to tie himself to a position on it. He could easily argue SF have changed, economically and politically given their role in Stormont.

Oasis_Dublin

K-9 wrote: »

I don't think anybody can guarantee anything until we know the number of seats, remember the Greens, but sure FG are different you say? Well, soundings were made to SF in 07, so even then, it wasn't ruled out by Enda.

If FG get over 65 seats, which is possible though I'd say unlikely with Kenny as leader as it means 38/39% of the vote, the situation has changed. Kenny will definitely look at his options. Completely denying that he might look at SF if the numbers add up is unrealistic.

FG 70 and SF 14 gives an over all majority and is possible, particularly with FF losing seats all over the country, all they have to do is gain less than 20 seats. To do that, they need over 38/39% going on previous elections, though this one is going to be hard to predict.

Kenny has been very slow to talk about SF and I'd say that is the main reason. He doesn't want to tie himself to a position on it. He could easily argue SF have changed, economically and politically given their role in Stormont.

I'll eat my hat if FG goes into coalition with Gerry. I, one of many, will rule out that coalition taking place.

Of course nothing is a guarantee but intelligent guesses can be made.

later12

If Sinn Fein held the balance of power in the next general election (you might think this is impossible, but it is not necessarily so with a new FF leadership looking appropriately sorry), Enda Kenny would be under enormous pressure to go into coalition with them and my bet is that he would, but he would have to resign in doing so.

Iwasfrozen

K-9 wrote: »

FG 70 and SF 14 gives an over all majority and is possible, particularly with FF losing seats all over the country, all they have to do is gain less than 20 seats. To do that, they need over 38/39% going on previous elections, though this one is going to be hard to predict.

No, it doesn't.

Oasis_Dublin

later10 wrote: »

If Sinn Fein held the balance of power in the next general election (you might think this is impossible, but it is not necessarily so with a new FF leadership looking appropriately sorry), Enda Kenny would be under enormous pressure to go into coalition with them and my bet is that he would, but he would have to resign in doing so.

There is no way he would stick it this long just to resign this late into the game. There are plenty of hats but none of them will be eaten after the next General Election!

Eliot Rosewater

Sully wrote: »

It just doesn't work from my view.

That's a fair point. I don't think it fully explains FG's performance, mind, but you are right in highlighting some of the population's desire for empty rhetoric over concrete but hard proposals.

K-9

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

I'll eat my hat if FG goes into coalition with Gerry. I, one of many, will rule out that coalition taking place.

Of course nothing is a guarantee but intelligent guesses can be made.

Well arguing it isn't a possible and is guaranteed is nonsense to me, especially considering overtures were made in 07, despite Enda's denials.

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

No, it doesn't.

84 seats isn't an overall majority? It still is 166 seats is it not?

later12

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

There is no way he would stick it this long just to resign this late into the game. There are plenty of hats but none of them will be eaten after the next General Election!

True, the idea of SF picking up that many seats is academic anyway. I would be interested to hear his position on a coalition eventuality nevertheless.

'Sure', as Lyndon B Johnson said, 'but lets hear him deny it'.

Iwasfrozen

K-9 wrote: »

84 seats isn't an overall majority? It still is 166 seats is it not?

Damm you're right.

K-9

FG only need to gain 15 or so seats to make it a possibility. If FF fall to under 24/25%, you're looking at them losing 30 seats easily, if 22% 40 seats. FG could easily pick up 15 of those.