Sinn Fein north and south what-if

Oisintarrant

Im not particularly graced with much political knowledge, but I just thought what-if Sinn Fein (as the only common party in the North and South) somehow got voted in to both governments at the same time. Would this ultimately make the 32 county Ireland, since the same powers that be in both the north and south sinn fein parties, although seperate in their own right, control both parties?!
Just a few quick notes to make. Im not a Sinn Fein follower, or any other for that matter at present. And if this has been discussed before, Id be grateful of any help linking to it. Really it was just a thought that popped into my head Id like an answer to! Thanks for reading.

dsmythy

I think that scenario is a million miles off for now but I suppose in theory they might take it as a mandate for a referendum at least.

Wolfe Tone

As much as I would like to think so, no. Would be more cross border consensus though.

amacachi

Would 10% of the vote in the bigger country and about 30% in the smaller country really be a "mandate" for a referendum?

dsmythy

amacachi wrote: »

Would 10% of the vote in the bigger country and about 30% in the smaller country really be a "mandate" for a referendum?

It depends what the OP is asking here. If he means Sinn Fein being the actual government in the far future of both the North and South then obviously yes. If he means the next election results they're going to get then obviously no.

deise go deo

The agreements of the peace process(GFA etc) mark out clearly how unification can be achieved. There has to be a referendum in NI on unification. There can only be unification if the majority in NI vote for it.
I have heard that SF are planing to call for a referendum in 2016, Personally I think it unlikely that there will be a majority in favor of Unification in 2016 but it will be close, the census next year should give a good indication of just how close.

SF being in Government in the south and North at the same time dosent really mean anything for Unification as there still has to be a referendum in NI. However unification would be get more attention in the south if SF were in government, and they would most likely draw up a report to plan the how unification could be put into effect should there be a yes vote in NI.

dlofnep

There is a big difference with regards to powers between Stormont and Leinster House. In Stormont, Sinn Féin cannot influence fiscal matters (taxation, budget allocation, etc..), foreign policy or cultural matters (Irish language act, etc..).

So if SF made up for example, a minority part of Government in the south, and held the role of first minister in the north - not alot would change, as the roles of first minister and deputy first minister are identical.

It would be good for Sinn Féin to have some influence in both the north and south with regards to Government, but ultimately - until British rule in the north ends, they cannot at any point influence important matters.

The only thing that will change that is a majority vote from nationalists. Whether that happens in 10 years or 30 years is very hard to determine, but the trend is heavily towards nationalism.

Oisintarrant

Im just kind of putting it out there as a possibility. In the real world, the chances of it happening are ridiculously small, however if both SF north and SF south were in government, would unification and referendum matter a bit? Since eventhough you still have a north gov and south gov, if theyre run by the same guys, then would they be able to rule both sides of the fence making the island ultimately governed by one group.

Just think if FF had a party in the north, and were in power up there and here.

edit.. dlofnep.. you posted as I was writing sorry. So does any ruling party in the North have power to change taxation budget alloc etc?or is it just sinn fein that would not be allowed to?

deise go deo

No, the budget for NI is given to them by the UK, They can spend it how they wish but they(Stormont) Have no say in how much they get. As for SF in Gov North and South, The political structures are different, They could increase cross border co-operation but they would still have no say in major issues in NI like tax policy as that is dealt with in London.

Only a referendum can Unify Ireland, SF in Government could not just go ahead and do it by themselves.

dlofnep

Oisintarrant wrote: »

edit.. dlofnep.. you posted as I was writing sorry. So does any ruling party in the North have power to change taxation budget alloc etc?or is it just sinn fein that would not be allowed to?

Westminster allocates the budget. Stormont agrees on where it is spent.

oscarBravo

"What-if" scenarios are not what Political Theory is about. Moved to Politics.

Iwasfrozen

It wouldn't change very much, if anything in the North. As the posters before me have said it will take a majority vote from nationalists in the north to unify Ireland.

KeithAFC

No. The GFA is crystal clear.

OhNoYouDidn't

KeithAFC wrote: »

No. The GFA is crystal clear.

On what?

PomBear

amacachi wrote: »

Would 10% of the vote in the bigger country and about 30% in the smaller country really be a "mandate" for a referendum?

All other Governmental Parties in Dublin as well as SDLP claim to want a united Ireland also

deise go deo

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

On what?

On the process for Unification, There has to be a majority in favor of unification in NI in a referendum.

KeithAFC

Still amazing how people don't understand the terms of the GFA.

OhNoYouDidn't

KeithAFC wrote: »

Still amazing how people don't understand the terms of the GFA.

Took the words right out of my mouth.

The procedure for a referendum on a UI is clear to everyone except you.

Het-Field

No.

Sinn Fein are not four square on policy in the North and in the South. In the North Sinn Fein are dead centre on most things, and are a populist party. In the ROI, Sinn Fein are a staunch leftist party. Until these differences are ironed out I feel Sinn Fein will be a very divided force.

OhNoYouDidn't

Het-Field wrote: »

No.

Sinn Fein are not four square on policy in the North and in the South. In the North Sinn Fein are dead centre on most things, and are a populist party. In the ROI, Sinn Fein are a staunch leftist party. Until these differences are ironed out I feel Sinn Fein will be a very divided force.

In the 6 counties, SF were very much on the left until they got into government. Now they are dead centre. Surely the logic is that the minute they get into power in the south, they will move to the centre too?

Het-Field

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

In the 6 counties, SF were very much on the left until they got into government. Now they are dead centre. Surely the logic is that the minute they get into power in the south, they will move to the centre too?

It depends on the role Sinn Fein down south would see themselves playing in any Government they may form. If they hit dead centre then surely they have no role to play in Government over and beyond what any other party can do ? This would guarantee electoral meltdown as it has for the PDs and the Greens.

KeithAFC

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

Took the words right out of my mouth.

The procedure for a referendum on a UI is clear to everyone except you.

lol. No its not. I ain't the one who started this stupid thread. If people understood the terms of the GFA, this thread would not of been started.

I fully understand the terms.

dlofnep

Het-Field wrote: »

No.

Sinn Fein are not four square on policy in the North and in the South. In the North Sinn Fein are dead centre on most things, and are a populist party.

Er, no they are not.

the groutch

it will happen in 2024

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEg52Dtq2e0

Bottle_of_Smoke

If Sinn Fein held every seat in Stormont and the Dail it would make no difference to the border question. That is why nationalist/unionist voting pacts were so silly. It is up to the people to decide full stop

OhNoYouDidn't

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

If Sinn Fein held every seat in Stormont and the Dail it would make no difference to the border question. That is why nationalist/unionist voting pacts were so silly. It is up to the people to decide full stop

But it would certainly imply a mandate to hold the referendum...

Bottle_of_Smoke

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

But it would certainly imply a mandate to hold the referendum...

Of course, I just thought it a good way to show the OP how SF being in any kind of power makes no difference to a UI

imme

The simple fact of SF being in government north and south wouldn't lead to anything.

They're involved in power sharing in NI.

If they were in government (I think this is highly highly unlikely in the near future) in the republic they'd be in a coalition government.

Sinn Fein is in fact 2 different parties imo. They keep spouting this 'one island - one party' stuff, but they're very different parties north and south, such is life.

dlofnep

imme wrote: »

Sinn Fein is in fact 2 different parties imo. They keep spouting this 'one island - one party' stuff, but they're very different parties north and south, such is life.

Eh, wrong.

Same leadership. Same Ard Chomhairle. Same Ard Fheis. Policies voted on by the same people.

How exactly are they different parties in the north and south? Specifics.

imme

dlofnep wrote: »

Eh, wrong.

Same leadership. Same Ard Chomhairle. Same Ard Fheis. Policies voted on by the same people.

How exactly are they different parties in the north and south? Specifics.

"eh wrong", gee thanks for correcting me. that made me laugh, thanks :rolleyes:

same leadership?, there's a SF leader in the Assembly in NI, Martin McGuinness. There's a SF leader in the Dail, Caoimhin O'Caoilean.
There's a party president of SF, Gerry Adams.
They seem to coming down with leaders for such a small party.


I've felt for some time that SF is in fact 2 parties, one party in NI and a different party in the republic.

If a party operates over 2 distinct jurisdictions with differing political and legal systems I don't see how they can be one party.

In NI recently SF voted for Billions of cuts in the budget. In the south SF was against the IMF/EU/UK bailout. Yet they didn't have a convincing alternative. I guess they didn't want reality to dent their new found popularity.

In this two situations SF showed itself to be 2 parties, one policy of economic stringency in NI and opposition to cuts in the republic.

dlofnep

imme wrote: »

thanks for correcting me.

You're welcome. Anytime.

imme wrote: »

same leadership?, there's a SF leader in the Assembly in NI, Martin McGuinness. There's a SF leader in the Dail, Caoimhin O'Caoilean.
There's a party president of SF, Gerry Adams.

Yes - the same leadership. Gerry Adams is the president of Sinn Féin. The Ard Chomhairle consists of Sinn Féin politicians from across the 32 counties. Your comments lead me to believe that you clearly are ill-informed when it comes to the make-up of Sinn Féin leadership, and indeed - with regards to how policies are formed.

imme wrote: »

I've felt for some time that SF is in fact 2 parties, one party in NI and a different party in the republic.

I'm sure you feel alot of things. That doesn't make them a matter of fact.

imme wrote: »

If a party operates over 2 distinct jurisdictions with differing political and legal systems I don't see how they can be one party.

Because they are one party. It's irrelevant if they operate in two different jurisdictions. The members and politicians that makeup Sinn Féin have the same political ideologies and aspirations. The president and vice-president come from Belfast and Dublin. The Ard Chomhairle is represented on an island-wide basis. There is a single Ard Fheis where all delegates from across the Island vote, and define Sinn Féin policy.

imme wrote: »

In NI recently SF voted for Billions of cuts in the budget.

That is incorrect.

Sinn Féin did not vote for cuts in the budget as Sinn Féin. That was decided by the British Government. Sinn Féin does not have the power to influence the budget allocation for the north. Cuts are made by the British Government, to which Sinn Féin and the DUP subsequently have to agree on where the spending occurs. They do not have a say on taxation or the budgetary allowance, and as such did not have the ability to determine the budget.

imme wrote: »

In the south SF was against the IMF/EU/UK bailout. Yet they didn't have a convincing alternative.

It seemed to be convincing enough for the people of Donegal that voted for Pearse Doherty, and it seems to be convincing enough for the people of Ireland where Sinn Féin has doubled in opinion polls.

Sinn Féin warned that a 4 year plan was too quick - and suggested that a 6 year plan would be more realistic. They were ridiculed, and what happened? The Irish Government was given an extra year to sort out it's fiscal matters as it was shown that they could not meet the 4 year deadline.

Belfast

PomBear wrote: »

All other Governmental Parties in Dublin as well as SDLP claim to want a united Ireland also

in theory they want a United Ireland in practice I think is scares them.

in practice a united Ireland is a "a pious aspersions" not something they hope will happen any time soon if ever.

Aidan1

As the posters before me have said it will take a majority vote from nationalists in the north to unify Ireland.

This country also has a constitution, remember? It would also take a majority vote in Ireland also - regardless of what might happen in Northern Ireland. It is, of course, therefore possible that Northern Ireland might vote for unification, and the south might not, in which case nothing changes.

Its worth point out also that recent polls in Northern Ireland suggest that the appetite for unification is far less than that which would be required, and that a merely sectarian perspective on demographics is insufficient to predict any form of political preference. Sinn Fein had been calling for a referendum (a border poll) for years, they've backed away now unless specifically asked, presumably because they know that their 'cause' would get a hiding. Then again, their recent bout of morals in actual engaging in democratic politics in Norther Ireland would also seem to suggest that they have long tacitly accepted that the status quo isn't going to change for the foreseeable.

PomBear

Belfast wrote: »

in theory they want a United Ireland in practice I think is scares them.

in practice a united Ireland is a "a pious aspersions" not something they hope will happen any time soon if ever.

"pious aspersions"? :pac:

People would have said the same about the rising, and the same about the GFA and many other times in SF's history.

One thing that they have yet to achieve is a united Ireland but ending partition is something that has being talked about, studied, economically and politically and tested and theorised in that manner. Before that the same was done will full independence and those "pious aspirations" they had back then seemed worth it, no? So, why stop? People gave up their lives for full independence, and nothing but....

KeithAFC

PomBear wrote: »

"pious aspersions"? :pac:

People would have said the same about the rising, and the same about the GFA and many other times in SF's history.

One thing that they have yet to achieve is a united Ireland but ending partition is something that has being talked about, studied, economically and politically and tested and theorised in that manner. Before that the same was done will full independence and those "pious aspirations" they had back then seemed worth it, no? So, why stop? People gave up their lives for full independence, and nothing but....

The majority of people in the Irish Republic wanted that. The majority don't in Northern Ireland. The key difference. Sinn Fein will never bring a United Ireland about. The majority of us Unionists hate them with a passion.

Sunnyisland

KeithAFC wrote: »

The majority of people in the Irish Republic wanted that. The majority don't in Northern Ireland. The key difference. Sinn Fein will never bring a United Ireland about. The majority of us Unionists hate them with a passion.

Are these the same unionists that are in a power sharing government with them,as there from the majority unionist party.

And when the GFA is implemented and the majority of people vote for a united Ireland what then keith ? will you and your supporters support it ?

KeithAFC

realies wrote: »

Are these the same unionists that are in a power sharing government with them,as there from the majority unionist party.

And when the GFA is implemented and the majority of people vote for a united Ireland what then keith ? will you and your supporters support it ?

No problem with power sharing. That is the GFA. Doesn't mean you can't hate them.

As for your 2nd point, it seems to be the other way around. More Catholics actually want to be in the UK than Protestants want to join a United Ireland. The will amongst the Protestant people is strong and loyal.

Sunnyisland

[QUOTE=KeithAFC;73550682 it seems to be the other way around. More Catholics actually want to be in the UK than Protestants want to join a United Ireland. The will amongst the Protestant people is strong and loyal.[/QUOTE]

If its this poll where talking about its being rejected.

Sinn Féin Assembly member Barry McElduff said the finding that only 16 per cent of the population desired unification was “very hard to view as credible” and the real debate should be resolved by calling a referendum on a united Ireland.
“The Life and Times survey needs to ask why it arrives at a figure of only 16 per cent of people within the North wanting a united Ireland when, with Sinn Féin’s clear position of uniting this country, the party received over 26 per cent of the vote in the latest election,” he said.

He has a very valid point.

KeithAFC

realies wrote: »

If its this poll where talking about its being rejected.

Sinn Féin Assembly member Barry McElduff said the finding that only 16 per cent of the population desired unification was “very hard to view as credible” and the real debate should be resolved by calling a referendum on a united Ireland.
“The Life and Times survey needs to ask why it arrives at a figure of only 16 per cent of people within the North wanting a united Ireland when, with Sinn Féin’s clear position of uniting this country, the party received over 26 per cent of the vote in the latest election,” he said.

He has a very valid point.

Not even talking about the poll. Be honest with yourself. More Catholics in Northern Ireland want to stay in the UK than Protestants who want to join a United Ireland.

PomBear

KeithAFC wrote: »

The majority of people in the Irish Republic wanted that. The majority don't in Northern Ireland. The key difference. Sinn Fein will never bring a United Ireland about. The majority of us Unionists hate them with a passion.

Many of the majority at the moment are told from a young age about unionism/loyalism etc. and indoctrinated against the idea of breaking away from Britain and will not give it thought. For many it will have to be when unity happens, they will see the benefits of a united Ireland. The effects of being ruled from London is not working and that will hopefully soon cease to be. Catholics who want Irish unity, however, have seen the adverse effect and the discrimination they received during the troubles and beforehand so you cannot blame them for wanting to be governed by their native government

KeithAFC

PomBear wrote: »

Many of the majority at the moment are told from a young age about unionism/loyalism etc. and indoctrinated against the idea of breaking away from Britain and will not give it thought. For many it will have to be when unity happens, they will see the benefits of a united Ireland. The effects of being ruled from London is not working and that will hopefully soon cease to be. Catholics who want Irish unity, however, have seen the adverse effect and the discrimination they received during the troubles and beforehand so you cannot blame them for wanting to be governed by their native government

And the Republican movement isn't and the propaganda? Lets not kid ourselves please.

A lot of people are just loyal and want to remain in the Union. I don't see the problem with that. People are entitled to what ever political view they want, but all signs is Northern Ireland is here to stay as a country. We have resisted the rule from Dublin for a long time now. I don't see that changing any time soon.

PomBear

KeithAFC wrote: »

And the Republican movement isn't and the propaganda? Lets not kid ourselves please.

A lot of people are just loyal and want to remain in the Union. I don't see the problem with that. People are entitled to what ever political view they want, but all signs is Northern Ireland is here to stay as a country. We have resisted the rule from Dublin for a long time now. I don't see that changing any time soon.

There is indoctrination in both communities I never said otherwise.

loyal to what exactly?
People are but people views are and can change, and whenever the demographics switch to a majority wanting a united Ireland, i'm sure it'll only be a matter of time until a united Ireland.

paky

if sinn fein came to power both north and south it would change everything. sinn feins ideology is based on the ideology of the legitimate rulers of this country who laid the very foundation of irish independence in the first dail.

ireland was well and truly independent before ''northern'' ireland ever came into existance. the 1916 rising, the 1918 mandate and the first dail are all testament to that.
ireland is free

if sinn fein came to power both north and south they would follow in the footsteps of the men of the first dail irregardless of any false majority

murraykil

How would a referendum work in reality?

For the Good Friday agreement Ireland had a referendum to remove the territorial claim on NI.

A new referendum in NI would be a simple enough question, stay as part of the UK or become part of Ireland.

In Ireland, would it be a parallel referendum with the question of whether or not to reinstate the territorial claim on NI?

paky

murraykil wrote: »

How would a referendum work in reality?

For the Good Friday agreement Ireland had a referendum to remove the territorial claim on NI.

A new referendum in NI would be a simple enough question, stay as part of the UK or become part of Ireland.

In Ireland, would it be a parallel referendum with the question of whether or not to reinstate the territorial claim on NI?

adopting a declaration of independence is all it would take by an all island party. it has already been done in 1919. as you may know, the provos/sinn feins claim to legitimacy, derives from this very delaration of indepedence ratified in 1919. when people vote for sinn fein,they vote for the declaration of independence which was ratified in 1919.

end a eknny

KeithAFC wrote: »

No problem with power sharing. That is the GFA. Doesn't mean you can't hate them.

As for your 2nd point, it seems to be the other way around. More Catholics actually want to be in the UK than Protestants want to join a United Ireland. The will amongst the Protestant people is strong and loyal.

i know loads of protestants living in the 26 counties who are happy to live in the republic of ireland and would love to be joined by there 6 county brethern

murraykil

paky wrote: »

adopting a declaration of independence is all it would take by an all island party. it has already been done in 1919. as you may know, the provos/sinn feins claim to legitimacy, derives from this very delaration of indepedence ratified in 1919. when people vote for sinn fein,they vote for the declaration of independence which was ratified in 1919.

The changes to the constitution in 1999 requires a referendum in both Northern Ireland and Ireland before a United Ireland could occur.

KeithAFC

end a eknny wrote: »

i know loads of protestants living in the 26 counties who are happy to live in the republic of ireland and would love to be joined by there 6 county brethern

Compared to the vast amount which don't and the majority which don't in Northern Ireland.

murraykil

KeithAFC wrote: »

Not even talking about the poll. Be honest with yourself. More Catholics in Northern Ireland want to stay in the UK than Protestants who want to join a United Ireland.

The current economic climate has likely increased the number of Catholics in Northern Ireland who are wanting to stay in the UK.

paky

murraykil wrote: »

The changes to the constitution in 1999 requires a referendum in both Northern Ireland and Ireland before a United Ireland could occur.

anything that came after 1919 will be invalidated once sinn fein adopt the approach which i have just outlined. partition is illegal and anything brought about by partition is illegal, even the 26 county and 6 county institutions are. you need to understand it from this perspective. its the only way irish unity/independence will come about. wating for a majority in northern ireland to accept this would take hundreds of years and is completely illogical and is contrary to irish self determination

KeithAFC

paky wrote: »

anything that came after 1919 will be invalidated once sinn fein adopt the approach which i have just outlined. partition is illegal and anything brought about by partition is illegal, even the 26 county and 6 county institutions are. you need to understand it from this perspective. its the only way irish unity/independence will come about. wating for a majority in northern ireland to accept this would take hundreds of years and is completely illogical and is contrary to irish self determination

That is beyond stupid. People really need to read and understand what the Good Friday Agreement is and what it means. As long as the MAJORITY of people in NORTHERN IRELAND want to remain in the Union, then anything else happening elsewhere is completely irrelevant. The country has been going for a long time now and it will stay that way. Your hundreds of years comment are interesting. So what, if the majority of people want it to remain that way, then it shall remain the way it is.