2011- What are our prospects?

MrMatisse

We have a massive national debt, huge unemployment, little growth in exports, shattered consumer confidence and damaged retailers.

2011- Trouble lies ahead.

RichardAnd

MrMatisse wrote: »

We have a massive national debt, huge unemployment, little growth in exports, shattered consumer confidence and damaged retailers.

2011- Trouble lies ahead.

We have very strong exports. Plenty of people are still spending too.

2011 most likely will probably see modest (very) growth, little to no change in unemployment and large scale emigration. In other words, it will be just like Ireland was for 75 of the last 90 years. Things will be bad for some, ok for most and good for a few.

johnnyskeleton

As regards growth, the government is relying on this coming from increased exports (i.e. greater profits for multinationals based here) and possibly a new housing bubble.

In terms of the level of growth, don't forget that in order to grow the economy in 2011 over 2010, the private sector has to grow by at least the 6bn cuts* in order to remain at 0% growth. Based on an estimate of 160bn GDP, that's already a c. -3.75% impact on GDP. This means that the rest of the economy will need to increase by close to 3.9% to negate the impact of this.

Given that most of the GDP growth in 2010 was because of "exports" i.e. a once off increase in the amount of corportate wealth passing through the country because of the closing of tax havens such as bermuda, I'm not sure that exports will grow significantly next year. Someone familiar with MNC accounting practices might be able to clarify, but I believe there is a lag between increased profits of their subsidiaries and the time that they put it through the books of their Irish operations, so even if the world economy picks up in the send half of 2011, we might not see it filter through to Ireland in time to increase the statistics.

As for indiginous companies, to be honest I can't see much by way of good news here. Hopefully all the companies that are going to fail have already done so, leaving mostly healthy businessess. Sadly, I expect that there are still a lot of companies (especially in retail) that have tried to hold on as long as possible, but now find that it is just too hard to turn a profit in Ireland.

Domestic consumption will obviously be hit, as stated, by the tax increases and public expenditure cuts. What is not clear is how this will have a knock on impact on the rest of the economy. If I pay €1 more in tax, I might spend €2 less because I save more or because I simply cannot afford what I want so I become more frugal in response. Equally, I might resort to borrowing that €1 and it won't substantially effect my income, although the trend is for consumer credit to shrink as banks are not lending.

Similarly, people are paying off debts rather than spending, if debts become more manageable they might spend more, if they become less manageable they will spend less. 2pac on thepropertypin has estimated that there is much more to fall (http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=23883&hilit=catastrophic+shrinkage+credit) so credit driven demand for consumer goods also seems unlikely to produce growth.

Mortgages is, bizzarely enough, an area that might produce some growth. If we have firesales, although it will mean realising a lot of the losses on property. I'm expecting some level of growth in the level of mortgage lending, hopefully based on properties exchanging hands for realistic figures (we've gotten to the point that it is very much in the government's interest to encourage realistic selling prices, but can they convince their buddies?).

A wild card is new business start ups. Will people start up new firms in Ireland, creating jobs, goods and services? If so, it will no doubt increase our GDP, but the trouble is how competitive Ireland is. The two areas earmarked for us by government are technology and renewable energy. Their smart economy plan is largely wishful thinking, and will require serious upfront investment, better education and decreased costs of business which simply cannot be achieved overnight. Renewables is a highly competitive market, and we are a relative beginner compared to e.g. Germany.

IMO growth could come from mid level manufacturing, if we can get our costs down. The reasons that brought intel to Ireland need to be recreated. Equally, while we cannot compete with China for cheap textiles, we can try to do so with designer textiles e.g. handmade wooly jumpers etc. Likewise, while we can't compete with the likes of Germany on the big operations like car manufacture, there is scope for us to make individual car parts and the like - again if we regain competitiveness.

Food production, processing and farm tools are all good areas and requires careful planning i.e. don't just let part time farmers get grants to raise a few chickens.

Tourism and arts can increase GDP but there is no knowing what will happen to these industries.

So there are a few areas that can have growth, but IMO the Irish people need to grow up and become a modern nation before this can happen. Part of that will mean getting rid of the type of politics which is about getting as much for the local area as you can. If we see that in the next election, we may just about keep GDP on an even keel next year and be ready for a bit of growth in 2012. Otherwise, there will simply be no hope for Irish industry and all there is is continued decline for the medium term.

Sea Sharp

I think the fears over the Spanish and Portuguese banking sectors will be confronted in the first quarter/ first half of 2011. Leading to European action that will hopefully include the renegotiation of out crappy bail-out deal.

There will be only a small change in the level of employment in Ireland. Either +0.5% or -0.5%.
We'll see a new government coming in and by June the Croke Park agreement will be scrapped. We'll finally see forced redundancies in the public sector.
It will become apparent that the toughest budget in history :rolleyes: will have failed in making 6bn in savings, falling short at around 4bn.
A further 20% will be knocked off the average price of property around the country. Foreclosures and firesales will start to happen towards the end of 2011. But 2012 and 2013 will be the main years for house repossessions.

RichardAnd

Sea Sharp wrote: »

We'll see a new government coming in and by June the Croke Park agreement will be scrapped. We'll finally see forced redundancies in the public sector.

Not likely in my opinion, at least, not likely outside of the HSE. CP deal or not, don't underestimate the power the PS unions have to cause chaos. Pay cuts in the PS are going to happen, forced redundancies are probably nto going to happen and to be honest, I would rather they didn't. I can't see how any decent person could actually want to see Ps workers out of a job but, as I've said in another thread on the matter, a dark side of humanity is that one can feel better when they go to the gallows with some company.

But let's not forget one thing about the CP deal. For all it's problems, the IMF and EU didn't demand it's removal in the bail out deal. I'm not saying that this completely exonerates it but I think it means that, perhaps, the savings suggested could actually be made.

Further:

It will become apparent that the toughest budget in history will have failed in making 6bn in savings, falling short at around 4bn

Where do you get this information from?

One way or the other, it will be an interesting year.

BeeDI

I'm in one if those MNC's, a few posters on here seem convinced do little more than use this country's tax laws, to reduce our global tax bill.
Well I sure you there is more to what we do here. Looking to 2011, I'm hearing nothing but positive news coming from practically all our markets. We expect strong volume growth next year, and a minimum 20% pick up in employment.

I'm hearing broadly the same story from compatriots, in a couple of different business associations I am involved in.

Last month, at a meeting with a selection of our Irish vendors, we again heard positive expectations for 2011.

My summary is that there will be a significant uplift in real activity by the MNC sector, with consequent direct employment increase and indirect employment increase.

Keep the faith, Ireland is not dead yet.

PS. Agriculture will grow very strongly next year also, on the back of a good 2010.
Food security is becoming a very major global issue. Ireland is placed to big gains from that.

A new government, of whatever make up, will also give at least a short term filip to domestic confidence.

FreudianSlippers

I'm not sure. I think we're going about this wrong.

You can't save your way out of recession. We need to pump up infrastructure projects and start building them tomorrow morning. Dublin needs Metro North and Dart Underground to begin January 1st.

The rest of the country needs hospital and school revamps and high quality fibre optics installed.

There's no way we're going to be able to cope with a single thing if we don't do something to tackle this unemployment problem.

OisinT

OisinT wrote: »

I'm not sure. I think we're going about this wrong.

You can't save your way out of recession. We need to pump up infrastructure projects and start building them tomorrow morning. Dublin needs Metro North and Dart Underground to begin January 1st.

The rest of the country needs hospital and school revamps and high quality fibre optics installed.

There's no way we're going to be able to cope with a single thing if we don't do something to tackle this unemployment problem.

No, it doesn't. Schools and hospital revamps, yes, to bring them up to a habitable standard, but high quality fibre optics in every ballygobackwards is madness.

Focus the investment in the cities (i.e fix Dublin from the mess it is in). We should have at least one city that works to European standards.

FreudianSlippers

salonfire wrote: »

No, it doesn't. Schools and hospital revamps, yes, to bring them up to a habitable standard, but high quality fibre optics in every ballygobackwards is madness.

Focus the investment in the cities (i.e fix Dublin from the mess it is in). We should have at least one city that works to European standards.

No I agree. I didn't necessarily mean fibre the the entire country, just to the major cities.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Valmont

OisinT wrote: »

I'm not sure. I think we're going about this wrong.

You can't save your way out of recession. We need to pump up infrastructure projects and start building them tomorrow morning. Dublin needs Metro North and Dart Underground to begin January 1st.

The rest of the country needs hospital and school revamps and high quality fibre optics installed.

There's no way we're going to be able to cope with a single thing if we don't do something to tackle this unemployment problem.

Spend spend spend? Borrow some more money? How do you propse we finance these projects?

RichardAnd

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Ernst & Young also gave Anglo Irish a clean bill of health only a few years ago. Their opinion on anything can't be trusted.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_%26_Young#Criticisms

Whilst on the other hand the EU and IMF have predicted some growth and a small drop in unemployment. As these two parties are far better informed and don't have to appease Irish votes by telling them "we're turned a corner", I'd be inclined to take them seriously.

Anonymous1987

Lets not put too much emphasis on one forecast, the following forecasts give a different picture for 2011.

|OCED|IMF|EC|ESRI
Unemployment Rate|13.6|13.5|13.5|13.5
Real GDP|1.5|0.9|0.9|1.0

RichardAnd

Anonymous1987 wrote: »

Lets not put too much emphasis on one forecast, the following forecasts give a different picture for 2011.

|OCED|IMF|EC|ESRI
Unemployment Rate|13.6|13.5|13.5|13.5
Real GDP|1.5|0.9|0.9|1.0

Exactly what I said. 2011 will see little change one way or another.

FreudianSlippers

Valmont wrote: »

Spend spend spend? Borrow some more money? How do you propse we finance these projects?

yep, borrow more - we wouldn't need a whole lot more even. Cutting the hell out of spending is not going to help unemployment and until we do something about unemployment we are spending more on social welfare and taking in less tax.

johnnyskeleton

BeeDI wrote: »

I'm in one if those MNC's, a few posters on here seem convinced do little more than use this country's tax laws, to reduce our global tax bill.

Not all, but a very large portion of them do. This is evidenced by the wide gap between GDP and GNP i.e. that is profits flowing out of the country. Further, most of the GDP "growth" can be linked to the decline in GDP in bermuda last year and early this year, which was subsequently reported on.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-21/google-2-4-rate-shows-how-60-billion-u-s-revenue-lost-to-tax-loopholes.html

BeeDI wrote: »

Well I sure you there is more to what we do here. Looking to 2011, I'm hearing nothing but positive news coming from practically all our markets. We expect strong volume growth next year, and a minimum 20% pick up in employment.

I'm hearing broadly the same story from compatriots, in a couple of different business associations I am involved in.

What are these expectations based on i.e. where do they expect the increased demand to come from?

BeeDI wrote: »

My summary is that there will be a significant uplift in real activity by the MNC sector, with consequent direct employment increase and indirect employment increase.

There are approximately 100k workers employed here through MNCs. However, Ireland is losing competitiveness. Dell has closed. Several pharma operations are closed or are considering closing:

http://www.biotechnologyireland.com/pooled/articles/BF_NEWSART/view.asp?Q=BF_NEWSART_312844

There is some good news in the area, i.e. rumours about Intel's new plant, but that could swing either way.

BeeDI wrote: »

Last month, at a meeting with a selection of our Irish vendors, we again heard positive expectations for 2011.

Sounds similar to the type of operation Ireland has - which sells some to it's Irish branch but mostly sells to different markets across the globe through its dublin office. Although most of the sales are to customers in e.g. Germany, the actual place where the sale takes place is in Ireland. Meanwhile, they also run separate companies that run their international profits through employee-less offices:

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1012956.shtml

BeeDI wrote: »

Keep the faith, Ireland is not dead yet.[/qutoe]

This optimism is all very well, but what exactly is going to change between now and this time next year?

BeeDI wrote: »

PS. Agriculture will grow very strongly next year also, on the back of a good 2010.
Food security is becoming a very major global issue. Ireland is placed to big gains from that.

I don't follow this, can you explain it to me please? Food security means countries wanting to supply their own food. This will damage Irish agricultural exports.

BeeDI wrote: »

A new government, of whatever make up, will also give at least a short term filip to domestic confidence.

I'd agree with this at least, but I'd go further - a new government could (probably won't, but could) make changes to the way business is done in Ireland. It would be very painful for many, but it would be a necessary transition back to competitiveness.

johnnyskeleton

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Much as I hate to admit it, I agree with E&Y on this.

It may well transpire that we do have growth, and that's to be welcomed, but no one seems to know where this growth is going to come from.

A prediction of a 2.3% contraction is nothing more than a view on how the budget cuts will effect the economy on the optimistic side. They also assume that nothing will deteriorate any further otherwise.

Perhaps someone can supply a link, but I haven't heard any convincing argument by the ERSI/CB/DOF/Cowen/Lenihan/IMF/EU etc all the organisations predicting growth as to where this growth is going to come from?

On a very basic level, is this going to be domestic growth i.e. will GNP rise too? or is it going to be an export led jobless recovery (in which case we will be basically taking more profits from the rest of the world and funnelling them through our little tax haven). Neither scenario is particularly likely IMO.

If nothing else, hope for the best but prepare for the worst. The most foolhardy thing people could do is prepare for the best and hope the worst never happens.

Sea Sharp

RichardAnd wrote: »

Not likely in my opinion, at least, not likely outside of the HSE. CP deal or not, don't underestimate the power the PS unions have to cause chaos. Pay cuts in the PS are going to happen, forced redundancies are probably nto going to happen and to be honest, I would rather they didn't. I can't see how any decent person could actually want to see Ps workers out of a job but, as I've said in another thread on the matter, a dark side of humanity is that one can feel better when they go to the gallows with some company.

It will eventually come down to a trade off between pay cuts for all or redundancies that address the gross inefficiencies in the Public sector. I don't think that redundancies can be avoided if the country is to get it's balance sheet back into black. Eventually redundancies will give the government less back lash than more pay cuts for all public sector workers.

But reconsidering my original statement, I think you're right that redundancies may be avoided (in 2011 at least).
I don't personally 'want' to see people losing their jobs but to me it just seems like nonsense for us to have to borrow money to pay for people that aren't needed. Sacking them is the lesser of two evils if you will.

RichardAnd wrote: »

But let's not forget one thing about the CP deal. For all it's problems, the IMF and EU didn't demand it's removal in the bail out deal. I'm not saying that this completely exonerates it but I think it means that, perhaps, the savings suggested could actually be made.

My suspicioin is that the EU / IMF are not commenting on the CP deal for now. They will however when the 9 month reports start to show us not being on target for the 2014 goals.

RichardAnd wrote: »

Where do you get this information from?

I guess, over time, I've become extremely cynical of plans proposed by Fianna Fail. To the best of my knowledge a good chunk of the proposed 6bn in savings wasn't really explained in detail and my money is on the gap in the budget deficit being trimmed down by 4bn as opposed the advertised 6bn as a direct result of the 2010 budget. Call it a hunch.

fat__tony

I always think to myself when I'll be able to work in Ireland again?

I reckon not for another 8-10 years at this rate.

oppenheimer1

MrMatisse wrote: »

We have a massive national debt, huge unemployment, little growth in exports, shattered consumer confidence and damaged retailers.

2011- Trouble lies ahead.

I don't think you've used enough tired clichéd negative adjectives to describe the Irish economy...:rolleyes:

EricPraline

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

I don't think you've used enough tired clichéd negative adjectives to describe the Irish economy...:rolleyes:

I'm not sure I'd agree with the poster about exports, but would you care to put out which of the other adjectives would be incorrect? Or do you just object to them because they're clichéd?

RichardAnd

EricPraline wrote: »

I'm not sure I'd agree with the poster about exports, but would you care to put out which of the other adjectives would be incorrect? Or do you just object to them because they're clichéd?

There are many, but his point was simply that people make blatantly exaggerated statements all the time about the irish economy or the current state the country is in. Examples:

1. Everyone is unemployed.
2. There hasn't been a single job created in the last X amount of time.
3. All civil servants get 50k a year.
4. All the young people can't get jobs

And of course, there is my personal favourite; the bakers/FF/developers/civil servants/anyone but me did it

johnnyskeleton

EricPraline wrote: »

I'm not sure I'd agree with the poster about exports, but would you care to put out which of the other adjectives would be incorrect? Or do you just object to them because they're clichéd?

They are not, strictly speaking, cliches either. They are just statements of fact/belief. He objects because they are negative.

johnnyskeleton

RichardAnd wrote: »

There are many, but his point was simply that people make blatantly exaggerated statements all the time about the irish economy or the current state the country is in. Examples:

1. Everyone is unemployed.
2. There hasn't been a single job created in the last X amount of time.
3. All civil servants get 50k a year.
4. All the young people can't get jobs

And of course, there is my personal favourite; the bakers/FF/developers/civil servants/anyone but me did it

But he didn't say any of those things, he said "huge unemployment", which is not the same as "everyone is unemployed".

1. Just because everyone is not unemployed doesn't mean we can ignore the fairly serious unemployment situation. At least we are not the worst in Europe, but we are in a far from healthy state.

2. Do you deny that job creation has been fairly thin on the ground?

3. I haven't seen anyone say that all civil servants earn 50k. Some earn more, some less. I'm not sure that given our budgetary situation we can afford to keep them at current rates, whatever those current rates are.

4. Again, do you deny that young people are disproportionately affected by the recession?

As for attributing the blame, would you prefer if we just glossed over this or adopted the rather glib phrase "sure we're all to blame really"? Forgive me if I'm not so easily assuaged.

ednwireland

RichardAnd wrote: »

And of course, there is my personal favourite; the bakers/FF/developers/civil servants/anyone but me did it

demm bakers its all their fault

thanks for making me laugh

hmmm

Our export markets are growing strongly which is a good sign for Ireland. Despite the bears constant droning on about double dips there is little sign of any such event on the near horizon. Like the late 80s, I expect our exporting industries to drag us out of recession.

As for Ireland itself there are some positives. As the economy recovers so will banking profits. The savings rate is extremely high and hopefully will fall. Deflation has helped competitiveness everywhere except in the public sector. The installation of a new government should help confidence.

The biggest worry I have is that inflation in Germany is growing, which may see a sooner than expected series of ECB rate hikes. Combined with tax rises, the middle class are getting royally squeezed.

flutered

wireless broadband not fibre optic is the easiest and cheapest way forward with broadband, (a lot of africa has better broadband than us using this method),a couple of major infrastucture projects are required with the following provisions, if public private partnership (which it has to be) the public part has to be the fiddler, unlike the shannon tunnel in which the private side were garenteed a certain number of cars to use it, then if not the public side had to shell out the difference, also as many irish workers as possible be hired, we need the wages to be kept here not exported, how that can be got around i do not know, possibly stating that unemployed are either hired or press ganged, but it must be a priority, crpke park needs to be seen to deliver, credit must be made advailable for irish industary and manafacturers, kildare street needs to be compleatly revamped, the situation where an irish minister retining has a bigger pension than obamah, the simi states require a shake up, also the idea of the tax on fossial fuels to make wind fuel more atractive needs to be put on the back burner, the taxing industary indirectly needs to go, fuel, water and co2 tax is keeping us back in a recession,

FreudianSlippers

flutered wrote: »

wireless broadband not fibre optic is the easiest and cheapest way forward with broadband, (a lot of africa has better broadband than us using this method),

agreed, that the whole country should have good quality wireless broadband, but the major 4 cities should have fibre everywhere tbh. Even if just all of Dublin and Cork had it it would be a major improvement on what we currently have. The fact that I live in City Centre Dublin and I cannot get fibre it ridiculous.

a couple of major infrastucture projects are required with the following provisions, if public private partnership (which it has to be) the public part has to be the fiddler, unlike the shannon tunnel in which the private side were garenteed a certain number of cars to use it, then if not the public side had to shell out the difference, also as many irish workers as possible be hired, we need the wages to be kept here not exported, how that can be got around i do not know, possibly stating that unemployed are either hired or press ganged, but it must be a priority,

They cannot prevent jobs from going to other EU workers that live here, but what they can do is crack down on other illegal non-nationals working on site.
Fact of the matter is that all EU workers in Ireland pay income tax in Ireland and spend a significant amount of money in Ireland

crpke park needs to be seen to deliver,

The agreement needs to be scrapped ASAP

kildare street needs to be compleatly revamped, the situation where an irish minister retining has a bigger pension than obamah, the simi states require a shake up, also the idea of the tax on fossial fuels to make wind fuel more atractive needs to be put on the back burner, the taxing industary indirectly needs to go, fuel, water and co2 tax is keeping us back in a recession,

Don't really agree with much of this. I do agree that our public sector pay is way too high, including the Oireachtas.
I think tax on fossil fuels should be increased as should road tax on the higher bands for cars.
This would have the effect of getting people to purchase new, more efficient cars and promote development in the clean energy sector.

gonedrinking

OisinT wrote: »

They cannot prevent jobs from going to other EU workers that live here, but what they can do is crack down on other illegal non-nationals working on site.
Fact of the matter is that all EU workers in Ireland pay income tax in Ireland and spend a significant amount of money in Ireland

Bosses and HR departments can play their part by favouring Irish nationals (although obviously they can't explicitly state this). There will be very few jobs advertised where you can' get an Irish applicant who is at least as good as any foreign national applying.

FreudianSlippers

gonedrinking wrote: »

Bosses and HR departments can play their part by favouring Irish nationals (although obviously they can't explicitly state this). There will be very few jobs advertised where you can' get an Irish applicant who is at least as good as any foreign national applying.

What you're advocating is illegal and wrong.

Delancey

I believe we will see in 2011 the emergence of a two-tier economy , by that I mean we will see growth from exporters and the multinational sector but the ' real ' economy of small and medium business will continue to shed jobs.
I cannot see how unemployment can be expected to fall in an economy where public spending is being cut and taxes hiked.

gonedrinking

OisinT wrote: »

What you're advocating is illegal and wrong.

It's not illegal. 2 candidates of similiar ability, one Irish, one foreign, the employer can choose the Irish one every time.

FreudianSlippers

gonedrinking wrote: »

It's not illegal. 2 candidates of similiar ability, one Irish, one foreign, the employer can choose the Irish one every time.

It's against employment equality legislation actually.

gonedrinking

OisinT wrote: »

It's against employment equality legislation actually.

No it's not. I suggest you study the legislation in more depth.

I admire the fact that you're arguing this with the legal discussion mod.

It is illegal to discriminate with regards to race/religion/sexuality/disability/sex or age.

Now, lets get back to the original point.

FreudianSlippers

IMO this so-called Shanghai-on-Shannon could be just the kick our country's economy needs, but who knows if/when it will go ahead.

I would hope that it could start this next year but it may be entirely pie in the sky.

I think IF the Chinese are going to go ahead with this project we should be seriously considering linking Dublin-Shannon, Cork-Shannon and with co-operation with the North, Belfast-Shannon with high-speed rail.

gonedrinking

Papa Smut wrote: »

I admire the fact that you're arguing this with the legal discussion mod.

It is illegal to discriminate with regards to race/religion/sexuality/disability/sex or age.

Now, lets get back to the original point.

What just like we shouldn't argue with Brian Lenihans economic decisions because he is the minister for finance so obviously he is never wrong.

But like I said, if there are 2 similiar candidates with nothing between them only nationality, and the employer picks the Irish one, there is no way it can be proven that discrimination against race was a factor in the decision.

Now obviously if an employer is hiring 200 or so employees in one go, then about 10 token foreign nationals would need to be employed, but there will be very few employers hiring that amount of people in 2011.

johnnyskeleton

gonedrinking wrote: »

What just like we shouldn't argue with Brian Lenihans economic decisions because he is the minister for finance so obviously he is never wrong.

But like I said, if there are 2 similiar candidates with nothing between them only nationality, and the employer picks the Irish one, there is no way it can be proven that discrimination against race was a factor in the decision.

Now obviously if an employer is hiring 200 or so employees in one go, then about 10 token foreign nationals would need to be employed, but there will be very few employers hiring that amount of people in 2011.

Are you not chaning your position here? You said that the employer can choose the Irish candidate "every time"

gonedrinking

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Are you not chaning your position here? You said that the employer can choose the Irish candidate "every time"

No, I thought it went without saying that if you are hiring a large number of people then you need a token amount of foreign nationals, but the vast majority of employers won't be hiring a large number of people in one go.

RichardAnd

gonedrinking wrote: »

What just like we shouldn't argue with Brian Lenihans economic decisions because he is the minister for finance so obviously he is never wrong.

But like I said, if there are 2 similiar candidates with nothing between them only nationality, and the employer picks the Irish one, there is no way it can be proven that discrimination against race was a factor in the decision.

Now obviously if an employer is hiring 200 or so employees in one go, then about 10 token foreign nationals would need to be employed, but there will be very few employers hiring that amount of people in 2011.

I am firmly against token hirings. Allowing a person's race or gender to enter into the equation is unfair in any context.

dan_d

My naive hopefulness allows me to suggest that maybe - just maybe - things might be a bit better this time next year.

I look at the statistics that are quoted in the papers, and then I look at the reality I see on the recruitment websites that I have been scouring for jobs since last July.

The reality I see is that there are jobs there.A lot of jobs. Recruitment consultancies are doing a lot of hiring for themselves. In other words, they need more recruiters.Which I'm taking as a good sign. Every day, pages and pages of new jobs go up - and they are not repeated ones. They are, however, extremely specific in their requirements. And there are next to no graduate level jobs.And the jobs you see on recruitment sites don't include the ones that never make it that far - the ones that are "underground" so to speak, advertised by word of mouth and on company sites only.

The statistics and forecasts, of course, speak otherwise. But then, they've been known to be wrong. To me, there are shoots are there - growing slowly, but still growing all the same. Things are a hell of a lot better than they were this time last year. We have a lot of improving to do, but we're v-e-r-y s-l-o-w-l-y starting as far as I can see.

I think part of our problem is that there is still an unrealistic expectation of wages from applicants. They still expect to be paid Celtic Tiger Wages, rather than taking a few thousand euro hit, and viewing it as a job in a hard time.

Personally, I've got my optimistic hat on.I've had enough of doom and gloom. I think Irish people need to get off their a$%es and start getting this country working again. Nobody's going to do it for us. I can't wait for the General Election - I'm going to absolutely grill every politician that turns up on my doorstep and I recommend you all do the same. About country-wide matters, not local GAA matters.Aided by the fact that I've recently secured a job after (only) 5 months being unemployed, in an industry that's completely dead, I'm optimistic about 2011!!

johnnyskeleton

dan_d wrote: »

My naive hopefulness allows me to suggest that maybe - just maybe - things might be a bit better this time next year.

I look at the statistics that are quoted in the papers, and then I look at the reality I see on the recruitment websites that I have been scouring for jobs since last July.

The reality I see is that there are jobs there.A lot of jobs. Recruitment consultancies are doing a lot of hiring for themselves. In other words, they need more recruiters.Which I'm taking as a good sign. Every day, pages and pages of new jobs go up - and they are not repeated ones. They are, however, extremely specific in their requirements. And there are next to no graduate level jobs.And the jobs you see on recruitment sites don't include the ones that never make it that far - the ones that are "underground" so to speak, advertised by word of mouth and on company sites only.

The statistics and forecasts, of course, speak otherwise. But then, they've been known to be wrong. To me, there are shoots are there - growing slowly, but still growing all the same. Things are a hell of a lot better than they were this time last year. We have a lot of improving to do, but we're v-e-r-y s-l-o-w-l-y starting as far as I can see.

I think part of our problem is that there is still an unrealistic expectation of wages from applicants. They still expect to be paid Celtic Tiger Wages, rather than taking a few thousand euro hit, and viewing it as a job in a hard time.

Would you mind telling us what industries these jobs are in, other than in HR?

dan_d wrote: »

Personally, I've got my optimistic hat on.I've had enough of doom and gloom. I think Irish people need to get off their a$%es and start getting this country working again. Nobody's going to do it for us. I can't wait for the General Election - I'm going to absolutely grill every politician that turns up on my doorstep and I recommend you all do the same. About country-wide matters, not local GAA matters.Aided by the fact that I've recently secured a job after (only) 5 months being unemployed, in an industry that's completely dead, I'm optimistic about 2011!!

You do know that it is possible to be in full time employment and also have a pessimistic view of the future prospects of the economy? Not everyone who has posted negative outlooks for 2011 is unemployed, in fact I would hazard a guess that most of those who are negative about 2011 are currently employed, self employed or business owners.

I know we are told that if we put our minds to it we can make our dreams come true, but blind optimism doesn't help. We need more than optimism to get us through.

feicim

OisinT wrote: »

I'm not sure. I think we're going about this wrong.

You can't save your way out of recession. We need to pump up infrastructure projects and start building them tomorrow morning. Dublin needs Metro North and Dart Underground to begin January 1st.

The rest of the country needs hospital and school revamps and high quality fibre optics installed.

There's no way we're going to be able to cope with a single thing if we don't do something to tackle this unemployment problem.

They should upgrade the countries mains water pipes. We need a reliable water supply first, then a fibre optic network.

Don't think we need a metro or a dart underground. The money would be better spent in providing a decent countrywide public bus service.

Anyway, I don't think any of the above will happen. The banks are feeling the pinch, so its only fair the money goes to them.

So prospects for 2011 - the banks being given infinite billions while the new FG/lab gov tells us they have no money for the plebs.

SkepticOne

I don't expect much in the way of dramatic developments. The governments deal with the EU/IMF has pushed dramatic things forward another few years. After the election a new coalition will occupy government buildings but will be reasonably happy to have their hands tied by the deal and will generally work within the framework given to them. Continued gradual decline in the economy in 2011.

RichardAnd

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Would you mind telling us what industries these jobs are in, other than in HR?

HR isn't an industry, it's a lesson in making life more difficult for other people in my experience.

There are jobs going in the IT industry, pharma and in finance for CERTAIN PEOPLE. There are not, however, joe anybody jobs.

dan_d

RichardAnd wrote: »

HR isn't an industry, it's a lesson in making life more difficult for other people in my experience.

There are jobs going in the IT industry, pharma and in finance for CERTAIN PEOPLE. There are not, however, joe anybody jobs.

Exactly.As I said, they are very specific in their requirements, but there are jobs out there.But, as I also said, there are little or no graduate jobs out there, which is an extremely bad thing.

RichardAnd

dan_d wrote: »

Exactly.As I said, they are very specific in their requirements, but there are jobs out there.But, as I also said, there are little or no graduate jobs out there, which is an extremely bad thing.

There are graduate jobs out there allright but the graduates who get them will be the ones with working experience. I found a job in IT coming out of college but, when I left DCU, I had about 4 years of working experience (not all in IT mind) which no doubt was worth far, far more then my little piece of paper which now lays at the bottom of a draw.

Degree with no experience will only lead to unemployment right now unless the person in question is extremely gifted or simply lucky.

femur61

Valmont wrote: »

Spend spend spend? Borrow some more money? How do you propse we finance these projects?

Valmont is right, where will the money come from. The PS are eating up any money we have for projects. We are being told spend, but isn't that basically the reason we are in the meass we are in? My issue with starting up a business is that my taxes will be paying inflated PS wages and inflated TDs pensions along with their grossly inflated wages. BTW yes I saved through the "celtic tiger" period.

ei.sdraob

OisinT wrote: »

IMO this so-called Shanghai-on-Shannon could be just the kick our country's economy needs, but who knows if/when it will go ahead.

I would hope that it could start this next year but it may be entirely pie in the sky.

I think IF the Chinese are going to go ahead with this project we should be seriously considering linking Dublin-Shannon, Cork-Shannon and with co-operation with the North, Belfast-Shannon with high-speed rail.

You dont realise how China operates, their main aim is employment for their people and wealth creation for their country

This is a repressive authoritarian state which is acting like one giant corporation ignoring all the treaties it signed up to, they will bring in their own workers for cheaper to do all the work (for example in Saudi they made their workers convert to Islam so they can build rail near Mecca), sucking as much out of the economy as they can


anyways after 2010 and the country performing much worse than even my own pessimistic forecasts (I didnt think we be going to IMF so quickly)
I think this year the worst thing that would happen to the economy is another euro state (Estonia?) lowering their corpo tax below ours and sucking up the only remaining reason many companies remain here.

later12

Wanting to find out if this forum has good form in economic forecasting I trawled back through the archive and came across this thread
http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=63691724#post63691724

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Predictions for 2010:

• Increased unemployment at the start of the year, masked by the tens of thousands of FAS places specified in the budget, so possibly official unemployment figures will drop. This is caused by a poor shopping season just past and continued high rents.
• Deflation continuing as more and more retailers realise that people just aren't spending.
• Another mini budget in September/October.
• FF/Greens stay in power in the face of ineffectual opposition, although Cowen will be deposed.
• Climbing emigration rates (possibly the target of and reason for youth dole cuts), as young people seek greener pastures, undermining future economic growth.
• Tax receipts for the year drop beneath €30 billion.
• More cuts in taxes on alcohol to compensate the 40% of FF TDs who are publicans for their loss of earnings, which naturally won't be passed on to the consumer.
• Meanwhile in typical FF form, other taxes will be increased while TDs proclaim that pain needs to be shared, pointing to their own cuts in salary.
• Sovereign debt continues to pile up, aided and abetted by the new NAMA vehicle, which will seek to disguise the actual cost of trying to bail out the defunct banks in complex documentation. This will adversely affect the cost of Irish borrowing, compounded by the problems in Greece, leading ultimately to an Irish bond auction failure.
• Few or no union protests from the public sector even after payroll cuts and further benefit curtailments in the third quarter 2010 budget.
• GDP drops 2% to 3%.
• Property prices continue to collapse bringing them to around 40% of peak in 2006.
• Real unemployment ends up at over the half million by the end of the year.

bamboozle wrote: »

i cant see things being as bad as 2009, as the eurozone, oz and Canadian economy's we will see more people leave Ireland in search of work elsewhere, this will result in a sizeable drop in unemployment allowance costs for the state, exports will rise as demand for Irish products will increase.

i cant see much more drama occuring during 2010

old boy wrote: »

i.m.o. nama will take up at least 45% of the next budget

hmmm wrote: »

I think 2010 is going to be an improvement for most people on 2009. Next years budget will hurt everyone, but we have reached the lowest point.

Hmmmmmm.

FreudianSlippers

feicim wrote: »

They should upgrade the countries mains water pipes. We need a reliable water supply first, then a fibre optic network.

This can be done at the same time.

Don't think we need a metro or a dart underground. The money would be better spent in providing a decent countrywide public bus service.

That won't have an impact on the economy like a big project like DU and MN will. Think about the jobs it will create in construction during and after the build, not to mention shop jobs etc.

Anyway, I don't think any of the above will happen. The banks are feeling the pinch, so its only fair the money goes to them.

I don't think it will happen because none of our potential governments are capable of seeing the big picture and the average citizen has no understanding of economics or how we really need to spend money to make money.

So prospects for 2011 - the banks being given infinite billions while the new FG/lab gov tells us they have no money for the plebs.

I asked this question before - what's better, state owned banks or foreign owned banks?
I don't know the answer.

As for the plebs, if we're going to recapitalise or save the banks in any way they need to be told that they have to start lending to SMEs and startups IMO.