Permutations for the Heineken Cup + HEC/Amlin Round 5 General Match Thread

thomond2006

Making this a future match thread so we can bump it later.

Permutations for the Heineken Cup - After Round 4

Team denotes impossible or highly unlikely to qualify.

History shows that you need at least 18 points to progress to the knockouts, so sides on less than 7 points now are effectively out.

The top 2 runners up qualify for the Heineken Cup knockout stage, the 3rd-5th best runners up move into the Amlin Challenge Cup knockout stage.
Anytime I mention best runners up below, I'm talking about the top 2 for the Heineken Cup.

http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/heinekencup/rules/index.php

Clubs in the same Pool

(ii) if Clubs are equal on points and the Clubs are in the same Pool, then qualification / ranking will be based on the two matches played between the Clubs concerned:

(a) the Club which has earned the most number of match points from the two matches (four points for a win, two points for a draw and bonus points).

(b) the Club which has scored the most tries in the two matches.

(c) the Club with the best aggregate points difference from the two matches.

Clubs from different Pools (if still unresolved)

(iii) if the teams have not played each other previously in the Pool stage, qualification / ranking will be based on:

(a) the number of tries scored in all Pool matches.
(b) aggregate points difference from all Pool matches.
(c) the Club with the fewest number of players sent off and / or suspended in all Pool matches.
(d) toss of a coin.

Pool Tables:

http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/heinekencup/pools/index.php

Pool 1
Northampton 16
Castres 10

Edinburgh 7
Cardiff 6

Northampton vs Edinburgh

Cardiff vs Castres

---

Castres vs Northampton
Edinburgh vs Cardiff

Cardiff are eliminated as they lose out in their head to head against Northampton with Edinburgh highly unlikely to make an impact. Northampton will clinch top spot in Round 5 if they win against Edinburgh and should go to Castres looking to secure a home quarter final. Castres' best hope is likely to qualify as a runner up, they will need to win both of their remaining games to do so.

Pool 2
Leinster 14
Clermont 9
R Metro 9

Saracens 6

Leinster vs Saracens
Clermont vs R Metro

---

R Metro vs Leinster
Saracens vs Clermont

A home win for Leinster against Saracens should be enough to put them through. Given that Racing will likely lose away to Clermont, Leinster's remaining two games should be against sides with nothing to play for. A home quarter final is a very achieveable goal for Leinster.

Clermont and Racing will need two wins to attempt to qualify as a best runner-up. That is a tough ask for both sides.

Pool 3
Toulon 13

Munster 11
Ospreys 10
L Irish 6

Toulon vs Munster
L Irish vs Ospreys

---

Munster vs L Irish
Ospreys vs Toulon

2 wins for Toulon will guarantee them top spot. Munster must win away to Toulon or they will be out by Round 5, they need to win both games if they wish to progress, as do Ospreys. London Irish can still mathematically progress but it would take a few extraordinary results for that to happen.

Pool 4
Biarritz 16

Ulster 13
Bath 8

Aironi 4

Ulster vs Biarritz
Bath vs Aironi

---

Biarritz vs Bath
Aironi vs Ulster

The game that decides the likely winner of the pool will be Biarritz vs Ulster. Biarritz can guarantee top spot in the pool if they win that game. Ulster will need at least a losing bonus point to keep any of hopes alive, assuming that earn a bonus point victory at Aironi.

Pool 5
Scarlets 15

Leicester 13
Perpignan 12
B Treviso 1

Scarlets vs Leicester
Treviso vs Perpignan

---

Leicester vs Treviso
Perpignan vs Scarlets

The draw between Leicester and Perpignan at Welford Road has blown this pool wide open.
Scarlets can guarantee top spot in Round 5 if they win at home to Leicester and the match points differential is 4 (Scarlets win with a BP or deny Leicester a losing BP) and Perpignan fail to win at Treviso.

Given Leicester beat Scarlets 46-10 in Round 2, Scarlets will probably lose out if both sides are tied on points after Round 6.
In they are tied on points, Perpignan will finish ahead of Leicester since they earned more match points in their two fixtures.

Pool 6
Toulouse 17

Wasps 15
Glasgow 4

Dragons 1

Toulouse vs Dragons
Glasgow vs Wasps

---

Dragons vs Glasgow
Wasps vs Toulouse

This pool is almost certain to have two qualifiers. Both Glasgow and Dragons are out. A win for both Wasps and Toulouse in Round 5 should see them qualify and their matchup in Pool 6 should then decide who tops the pool and earns a home quarter final.

My Prediction - Seedings
1: Toulouse (26)

2: Northampton (25)
3: Perpignan (22)
4: Leinster (22)
5: Ulster (21)
6: Toulon (18)

---

7: Biarritz (21)
8: Wasps (20)

That would make quarter finals of:
Toulouse vs Wasps

Northampton vs Biarritz
Perpignan vs Toulon
Leinster vs Ulster

Of course, it's very difficult to make clear cut predictions at this stage, there's still a lot of rugby left to be played. Only Pools 1 & 2 are likely to be decided at the conclusion of Round 5. You gotta love the Heineken Cup, the permutations are fascinating, can't wait!

Please point out any mistakes I've made!

CouchSmart

Repost of my predictions.

Toulouse - 25
Leinster - 23
Northamtpton - 22/24
Perpignan - 22
Ulster - 22
Ospreys - 19
Leicester - 22
Biarritz - 21
Scarlets - 20

Whats the story with teams on same number of points? Best points diff? Tries For/Against?

thomond2006

CouchSmart wrote: »

Whats the story with teams on same number of points? Best points diff? Tries For/Against?

See my OP, just added it.

durkadurka

Thomond you're a legend, like a great pack, doing all The hard yards for everyone, now you just need to pass it to one of the girls in the backs to get over the line

durkadurka

Is it conceivable that munster could qualify with a losing bp in Toulon? Doesn't seem to look like it.

Digifriendly

durkadurka wrote: »

Thomond you're a legend, like a great pack, doing all The hard yards for everyone, now you just need to pass it to one of the girls in the backs to get over the line

Ditto. Brilliant work by Thomond. Wouldn't be one bit surprised if quarter finals were as he predicted. Would be a big ask for Ulster though to go to Leinster and win - they've never beaten Leinster away in the ML.

durkadurka

Ok, suppose munster get losing bp at Toulon and li beat ospreys, then munster thrash li in thomond, and ospreys beat Toulon by 8, thatleaves munster and Toulon on 17 points, no?

Ian_K

durkadurka wrote: »

Ok, suppose munster get losing bp at Toulon and li beat ospreys, then munster thrash li in thomond, and ospreys beat Toulon by 8, thatleaves munster and Toulon on 17 points, no?

And Ospreys on 18 if they beat LI!! Not good new for us, need to win in france to get through imo

irishbucsfan

thomond2006 wrote: »

My Prediction - Seedings
1: Toulouse (26)

2: Northampton (25)
3: Perpignan (22)
4: Leinster (22)
5: Ulster (21)
6: Toulon (18)

---

7: Biarritz (21)
8: Wasps (20)

That would make quarter finals of:
Toulouse vs Wasps

Northampton vs Biarritz
Perpignan vs Toulon
Leinster vs Ulster

Of course, it's very difficult to make clear cut predictions at this stage, there's still a lot of rugby left to be played. Only Pools 1 & 2 are likely to be decided at the conclusion of Round 5. You gotta love the Heineken Cup, the permutations are fascinating, can't wait!

Please point out any mistakes I've made![/LEFT]

Personally, I don't think Perpignan will get two bonus points in their last two games. But apart from that I agree with you.

So my Quarter finals prediction would be:

Toulouse v. Wasps (Toulouse)
Northampton v. Biarritz (Northampton)
Leinster v. Toulon (Leinster)
Perpignan v. Ulster (Perpignan)

And then we all know the French teams are likely to be "drawn" at home in the semi-finals. So I could see semis of:

Perpignan v. Leinster
Toulouse v. Northampton

And a final of Toulouse v. Leinster!

durkadurka

Ian_K wrote: »

And Ospreys on 18 if they beat LI!! Not good new for us, need to win in france to get through imo

Its a long shot I'll grant you

ambid

Great work Thomond. Thanks.

thomond2006

No bother lads.

Cool_CM

thomond2006 wrote: »

No bother lads.

Erasmus yeah?:D

Cheers for that!

thomond2006

Cool_CM wrote: »

Erasmus yeah?:D

Cheers for that!

I'm on Erasmus from 5th January!

**** Ireland, I've a horse outside... :pac:

[Jackass]

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Personally, I don't think Perpignan will get two bonus points in their last two games. But apart from that I agree with you.

So my Quarter finals prediction would be:

Toulouse v. Wasps (Toulouse)
Northampton v. Biarritz (Northampton)
Leinster v. Toulon (Leinster)
Perpignan v. Ulster (Perpignan)

And then we all know the French teams are likely to be "drawn" at home in the semi-finals. So I could see semis of:

Perpignan v. Leinster
Toulouse v. Northampton

And a final of Toulouse v. Leinster!

Leinster, if we get through, will be "drawn" away to the winner of Toulouse v Wasps and will go out in the semi's away to Toulouse again.

I hear next season Toulouse and Stade Francais have been selected to host each semi final, so the groups are being cut in half and seedings for teams outside of T14 have been cut to try and find two more teams for the semi's and an injunction has been passed suspending all ERC rugby being played outside of Paris.

danthefan

Seems a few people expect Leinster to win away to Racing, that is definitely not going to be easy.

irishbucsfan

danthefan wrote: »

Seems a few people expect Leinster to win away to Racing, that is definitely not going to be easy.

At that point Racing may be eliminated (if they lose away to Clermont the week before)

tolosenc

Likelihood is that Racing will already be eliminated by the time Leinster go to Paris, and Leinster will go there looking to secure a home QF. A win is not at all unlikely.

Northampton(21)
Leinster(23)
Munster(17)
Ulster(22), Biarritz(21)
Leicester(22), Perpignan(21)
Toulouse(26)

Giving us QFs of:

Toulouse vs Munster
Leinster vs Northampton
Ulster vs Perpignan
Leicester vs Biarritz

twinytwo

tolosenc wrote: »

Likelihood is that Racing will already be eliminated by the time Leinster go to Paris, and Leinster will go there looking to secure a home QF. A win is not at all unlikely.

Northampton(21)
Leinster(23)
Munster(17)
Ulster(22), Biarritz(21)
Leicester(22), Perpignan(21)
Toulouse(26)

Giving us QFs of:

Toulouse vs Munster
Leinster vs Northampton
Ulster vs Perpignan
Leicester vs Biarritz

Damn straight... i cant see munster losing in france... they cant. It would make them the first team in a long long time to not make a QF. To much pride for that.

thomond2006

*Bump*

All times are Irish!

FRIDAY

7:30pm
Cardiff vs Castres

8pm
Northampton Saints vs Edinburgh
Clermont vs Racing Metro

Prediction: 3 home wins

SATURDAY

1:30pm
Leinster vs Saracens
Treviso vs Perpignan
Toulouse vs NG Dragons

2:30pm
Bath vs Aironi

3:30pm
Ulster vs Biarritz

5:45pm
Scarlets vs Leicester

Prediction: Home wins except for Perpignan.

SUNDAY

1pm
Glasgow vs London Wasps

3pm
London Irish vs Ospreys
Toulon vs Munster

Prediction: 3 away wins (I dearly hope! )

Taken from here (local times listed): http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/matchcentre/fixtures_heineken_cup.php

CIARAN_BOYLE

I am not certain but I heard it mentioned that Racing have a big T14 match on the Wednesday after the Leinster match. Assuming that Racing are out of the HEC I expect them to send out a second string side to Leinster.

irishbucsfan

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I am not certain but I heard it mentioned that Racing have a big T14 match on the Wednesday after the Leinster match. Assuming that Racing are out of the HEC I expect them to send out a second string side to Leinster.

They play Clermont on the Wednesday

Morf

What is the televised match on Friday night? Clermont V Racing looks tasty.

theKramer

This being Sky, they will obviously show the Northampton fixture, they being the only English team playing on the Friday night.

Morf

So i saw. Disappointing.

It'll be on French TV. They dont geoblock their online streams so keep an eye out.

LeeroyJones

danthefan wrote: »

Seems a few people expect Leinster to win away to Racing, that is definitely not going to be easy.

Certainly not, the hope is that they will have been already eliminated having lost to Clermont thus not giving rashers when we pop on over for Round 6.

Chances are should Racing lose against Clermont that, while 2nd place is still mathematically viable, they could only finish 2nd but be the worst placed 2nd place. Thus not qualifying for the Amlin. So, the Leinster match in Paris would really be a nothing game for them.

Top two 2nd places advance to the quarter
Third-Fifth best 2nd placed sides drop to the Amlin
The sixth 2nd placed side says goodbye to Europe for another year

molloyjh

irishbucsfan wrote: »

At that point Racing may be eliminated (if they lose away to Clermont the week before)

It's a dangerous thing assuming that Racing won't really be up for it. If it was over here I'd say so. But even with the big Clermont game on Wednesday French teams don't like to lose at home. And they already did to Saracens. They're not going to want to see a repeat of that. And they'll probably be looking to put one over on us after October. I wouldn't take anything for granted in that game at all...

Quint2010

The Rugby Club is on SS1 at the moment. Very interesting

lologram

http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/news/13519.php

Racing are going to be without Wisniewski for the last 2 rounds due to suspension. That's good for Leinster.

komodosp

Toulon 13
Munster 11
Ospreys 10
L Irish 6

Toulon vs Munster
L Irish vs Ospreys

---

Munster vs L Irish
Ospreys vs Toulon

2 wins for Toulon will guarantee them top spot. Munster must win away to Toulon or they will be out by Round 5, they need to win both games if they wish to progress, as do Ospreys. London Irish can still mathematically progress but it would take a few extraordinary results for that to happen.

Simple! Beat Munster in TP, and bp Ospreys at home. Munster beat Toulon and Ospreys beat Toulon.

thomond2006

Pool 1
Northampton 21
Castres 11
Cardiff 10
Edinburgh 7

Results:
Cardiff 14 - 9 Castres
Northampton 37 - 0 Edinburgh

So Northampton are the first team to qualify for the quarterfinals. They play Castres away which tbh they should win because Castres have pissed on this competition. So home quarterfinal for Northampton IMO.

PhatPiggins

thomond2006 wrote: »

Pool 1
Northampton 21
Castres 11
Cardiff 10
Edinburgh 7

Results:
Cardiff 14 - 9 Castres
Northampton 37 - 0 Edinburgh

So Northampton are the first team to qualify for the quarterfinals. They play Castres away which tbh they should win because Castres have pissed on this competition. So home quarterfinal for Northampton IMO.

Castres have taken their home games very seriously, lost to a late try in Edinburgh and were robbed in the opening game in Northampton. Don't have the squad to compete on 2 fronts but have taken the HC far more seriously then usual. "Pissed on this competition" because they played a weakened team today in a dead rubber!!

thomond2006

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Castres have taken their home games very seriously, lost to a late try in Edinburgh and were robbed in the opening game in Northampton. Don't have the squad to compete on 2 fronts but have taken the HC far more seriously then usual. "Pissed on this competition" because they played a weakened team today in a dead rubber!!

Actually you're right. I take that back.

PhatPiggins

thomond2006 wrote: »

Actually you're right. I take that back.

Its OK your Toulonais now you're meant to automatically hate all other southern France teams

BTW I think Castres will put out their full team next week and beat Northampton

tolosenc

OK, so Saints, Leinster, and Toulouse are through, and should all finish ahead of the winners of pools 3 and 4 ensuring home quarter finals. Scarlets for the 4th home slot, I reckon. Toulon and Ulster to win pools 3 & 4, with best runners up going to Biarritz and Perpignan.

thomond2006

I'll do a similar thread for Round 6 on Monday.

LeeroyJones

Can someone tell me that how exactly seeding for the QF works?
Are the 6 group winners automatically seeds 1-6, with seeds 7&8 being determined by the points scored by the two best runners-up?

Or

Can a runner-up attain a higher seeding by having more points than a team which topped their group?

A potential example would be, should Munster overcome Toulon tomorrow they could win the group with 19/20 points. However in Pool 4, 1st and 2nd will probably be both on 21 or 22 points. For argument's sake let's say Ulster finsh 2nd on 22 points and Munster finish 1st on 20 points, who is seeded higher? Munster as a result of topping the group or Ulster, by virtue of more points?

CIARAN_BOYLE

LeeroyJones wrote: »

Can someone tell me that how exactly seeding for the QF works?
Are the 6 group winners automatically seeds 1-6, with seeds 7&8 being determined by the points scored by the two best runners-up?

Or

Can a runner-up attain a higher seeding by having more points than a team which topped their group?

A potential example would be, should Munster overcome Toulon tomorrow they could win the group with 19/20 points. However in Pool 4, 1st and 2nd will probably be both on 21 or 22 points. For argument's sake let's say Ulster finsh 2nd on 22 points and Munster finish 1st on 20 points, who is seeded higher? Munster as a result of topping the group or Ulster, by virtue of more points?

Pool winners are 1st-6th seeds while the best runners up are 7th and 8th seeds

Morf

LeeroyJones wrote: »

Can someone tell me that how exactly seeding for the QF works?
Are the 6 group winners automatically seeds 1-6, with seeds 7&8 being determined by the points scored by the two best runners-up?

Or

Can a runner-up attain a higher seeding by having more points than a team which topped their group?

A potential example would be, should Munster overcome Toulon tomorrow they could win the group with 19/20 points. However in Pool 4, 1st and 2nd will probably be both on 21 or 22 points. For argument's sake let's say Ulster finsh 2nd on 22 points and Munster finish 1st on 20 points, who is seeded higher? Munster as a result of topping the group or Ulster, by virtue of more points?

It's the pool winners ranked by points then bonus points scored/possibly tries scored. The two best losers under the same criteria are seeds 7 and 8.

tolosenc

And it's worth noting that to be 7th/8th, you don't need to actually come second in your group.

CouchSmart

tolosenc wrote: »

And it's worth noting that to be 7th/8th, you don't need to actually come second in your group.

Huh? Yes you do, unless I'm misinterpreting you.

tolosenc

CouchSmart wrote: »

Huh? Yes you do, unless I'm misinterpreting you.

Sorry, I'm mixing up not only competitions here, but sports as well...

I think I need to sleep...

GerM

tolosenc wrote: »

OK, so Saints, Leinster, and Toulouse are through, and should all finish ahead of the winners of pools 3 and 4 ensuring home quarter finals. Scarlets for the 4th home slot, I reckon. Toulon and Ulster to win pools 3 & 4, with best runners up going to Biarritz and Perpignan.

Toulouse are far from through. In fact, if Wasps beat Glasgow later then all they'll need to do is beat Toulouse in London next week to top the group. Not inconceivable that Toulouse could be out given the way Ulster/Biarritz and Perp/Leicester are shaping up to finish with 21/22 points each.

stinkbomb

a leinster v munster q final is a real possibility i think if munster win today [ seed 2 v 6 ]

stinkbomb

i'm mistaken there. sorry. 2nd seeds don't play 6th , they play best runner up. could be leinster v leicester and perpignon v munster or vice versa depending on last round in g5.

Dozen Wicked Words

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Castres have taken their home games very seriously, lost to a late try in Edinburgh and were robbed in the opening game in Northampton.!

Just to note, Castres were as bad as Northampton in the first game, I don't think they were robbed, one iffy knock on decision (and I'm not convinced the officials even got it wrong) doesn't class as being "robbed". Their pack wasn't good enough and would have lost by more if Northampton hadn't been so woeful with their kicking at goal. Terrible game, but think they probably will beat the Saints in the return trip.

sock puppet

I'd say Wasps will definitely beat Glasgow today. They've put out a truly awful team.

It could be bad news for Ulster. The positive for them is that Biarritz aren't really a side to pick up bonus points so a BP win against Aironi should see them top the group.

Mushy

Glasgow beating Wasps....if it stayed that way would all the possible teams who can qualify in 2nd be known yeah? Think would mean only Ulster and Perpignan, then obviously teams in first where of their respective groups.

sock puppet

Mushy wrote: »

Glasgow beating Wasps....if it stayed that way would all the possible teams who can qualify in 2nd be known yeah? Think would mean only Ulster and Perpignan, then obviously teams in first where of their respective groups.

Perpignan will qualify top should they win with a bonus point. Scarlets will probably go through if they win too. And Ulster would be the more likely to top the group as well with Biarritz going through as runner up.

Wow Wasps were truly awful. That was a seriously weakened Glasgow team too.

Brewster

After Wasps losing, Ulster are now gauranteed a quarterfinal place if they beat Aironi. I don't think they even need a bonus point to guarantee a runners spot at worst. Dont want to tempt fate, but they should beat Aironi....!!