Predict the Election

Denerick

I'd say FF will get around 30% of the vote, FG will get around 30%, followed by Labour on 25%, with SF and the others picking up the rest. Kenny as Taoiseach, with Rabbite as Finance Minister (if Gilmore had any decency at all he wouldn't let Burton anywhere near the ministry) The new coalition will all end in tears and general election 2012 will see FF return to power as the Irish people revert to form and elect the typical gombeen men who have so faithfully served their pathetic, petty narrow sectional interests for so long.

Although FFs poll numbers are poor, bear in mind that when the 'lads' return to constituencies they'll remind their neighbours how many funerals they went to in the last 5 years and how many filthy bogman hands they shaked also.

Oasis_Dublin

I predict the election will happen.

ilovesleep

Is there anything we can do to get rid of FF from the politicial map. Voting wont do it.

Denerick

ilovesleep wrote: »

Is there anything we can do to get rid of FF from the politicial map. Voting wont do it.

Emigrate and you won't have to worry about it. FF are just a reflection of the people of this island, its them you should really be concerned about.

View

FF to secure an overall majority, FG to commit mass suicide off the Cliffs of Moher as a result.

snubbleste

85 Independents to band together and form a cohesive government.

GSF

snubbleste wrote: »

85 Independents to band together and form a cohesive government.

Jackie Healy Rae - Taoiseach
Michael Lowry - Finance

Bottle_of_Smoke

Denerick wrote: »

I'd say FF will get around 30% of the vote, FG will get around 30%, followed by Labour on 25%, with SF and the others picking up the rest. Kenny as Taoiseach, with Rabbite as Finance Minister (if Gilmore had any decency at all he wouldn't let Burton anywhere near the ministry) The new coalition will all end in tears and general election 2012 will see FF return to power as the Irish people revert to form and elect the typical gombeen men who have so faithfully served their pathetic, petty narrow sectional interests for so long.

Although FFs poll numbers are poor, bear in mind that when the 'lads' return to constituencies they'll remind their neighbours how many funerals they went to in the last 5 years and how many filthy bogman hands they shaked also.

Wouldn't be quite as negative myself about the actual election results.

I'd be more inclined to say FF will get 20% FG 30 and Labour 25. SF maybe 8-9 seats greens 2 seats and independents or socialists take the rest.

I think you are correct it will end in tears. FF will be a very different party in terms of personnel and will push that as a selling point and get back in as a coalition

later12

FF: 50 seats
FG: 70 approx.
Lab: 28 approx
Greens: 3/ 4
SF: 5
Ind: about 8 to 10

That leaves the (remotely) realistic Coalition options

FF-Lab-Green-Ind(s)
FF-Lab-Inds
FG-Green-Inds

or the most likely, FG-Lab pairing

The big winners of this election will be FG and the Independents.
It seems to follow a trend that terms where independents were kingmakers, they are subsequently re-elected in greater numbers nationally.

OhNoYouDidn't

People are being wildly optimistic about ff and negative about labour

FF will be lucky to get 30 seats.

Denerick

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

People are being wildly optimistic about ff and negative about labour

FF will be lucky to get 30 seats.

You are overestimating the capacity of the Irish people to make rational political choices.

Brussels Sprout

This website is dedicated to predicting the results of the election.

maynooth_rules

later10 wrote: »

FF: 50 seats
FG: 70 approx.
Lab: 28 approx
Greens: 3/ 4
SF: 5
Ind: about 8 to 10

That leaves the (remotely) realistic Coalition options

FF-Lab-Green-Ind(s)
FF-Lab-Inds
FG-Green-Inds

or the most likely, FG-Lab pairing

The big winners of this election will be FG and the Independents.
It seems to follow a trend that terms where independents were kingmakers, they are subsequently re-elected in greater numbers nationally.

I don't mean to be dismissive but I cannot really see the Green Party get 4 seats whatsoever. The only possibilities of getting back in are Sergeant and Ryan. Most of the rest, maybe excluding Cuffe, haven't a hope of hell. I think you have to remember that people nearly have more anger for the Greens than FF. They have sat back and allowed this all to happen and done nothing about it. remember they are the kingmakers of this government. Plus their desperate attempt to jump ship and call an election for January did them very little favours, considering every time I open the paper the date is being pushed back a week.
Id love a FG majority, as I think this would be the stability that the country needs. Not going to happen unfortunately.

iPlop

I would say the current line up in FF will be gone after the next election ,then they will make some sort of come back in 2012 like "New Labour" did in the UK in 1997.There will be young go-getter type people that will be the face of "New Fianna Fail" and they will be well versed with the younger generation.Slogans like "OMG We LOL at Fine Gael's plans for water charges LOL" will be the new order of the day which will win them the votes from the younger generation

irishh_bob

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

People are being wildly optimistic about ff and negative about labour

FF will be lucky to get 30 seats.

FF will get between 35 and 40 seats

thier are still a few groups who are loyal to them

pensioners = older so they are more into the voting along family lines thing , spared entirely from the rescession and also benefited hugely during fianna fail,s time in office this past 13 years , pensioners vote in large numbers than any other age profile

farmers = like pensioners , they tend to vote along family lines , farmers also only ever vote for one of two parties ( monaghan farmers excluded ) and farming is going extremley well right now , FF have kept thier promise on recent infrastructural grant schemes related to agriculture depsite the rescession

older public sector workers = be it the relativley small cuts to public sector pensions or the fact that retired teachers still get 1st refusal ( over young teachers ) when it comes to subbing or the fact that FF have always looked after the public sector , this demographic will still return a good few votes for FF

irishh_bob

maynooth_rules wrote: »

I don't mean to be dismissive but I cannot really see the Green Party get 4 seats whatsoever. The only possibilities of getting back in are Sergeant and Ryan. Most of the rest, maybe excluding Cuffe, haven't a hope of hell. I think you have to remember that people nearly have more anger for the Greens than FF. They have sat back and allowed this all to happen and done nothing about it. remember they are the kingmakers of this government. Plus their desperate attempt to jump ship and call an election for January did them very little favours, considering every time I open the paper the date is being pushed back a week.
Id love a FG majority, as I think this would be the stability that the country needs. Not going to happen unfortunately.

green party voters are a much more , shockable and fickle bunch than FF voters , many green voters can no longer stand the smell and will most likely vote labour or some nice man from the left alliance

RGDATA!

Denerick wrote: »

The new coalition will all end in tears and general election 2012 will see FF return to power as the Irish people revert to form

this part is fairly inevitable IMO
edit: although 2012 is probably a bit soon. 2013/14 yes.

Skrynesaver

Regardless of the 1st preferences, FF are transfer toxic and so won't "pick up the last seat" in the way they are used to. Now crystal ball time:

FG 62
Lab 46
FF 28
SF 15
Green 1
Ind 15

We will end up with a FG/Labour Govt.

Enda Taoiseach (Could be surprisingly effective cabinet chair)
Eamon Táiniste (Interesting to see how he will deal with questions on the policy he's implementing )
Joan Finance (She has an unfortunate tone of voice but is the best qualified prospective cabinet member with academic training in Finance)

Obligatory guess work:

With such a huge majority the only thing that could go wrong will be SF and ULA independents acting as an oppositional conscience to Labour forcing them to stand against FG's desire to implement the IMF shock doctrine. I suspect that it'll last to '13 or '14 at which point FG will continue to try and implement cuts and privatisation beyond what even Labour's base will bear.

later12

Joan Finance (She has an unfortunate tone of voice but is the best qualified prospective cabinet member with academic

From teaching accountancy part time in DIT??

What about Richard Bruton with his MPhil in Economics from Oxford University and his career as an economist?

iPlop

later10 wrote: »

[/INDENT] From teaching accountancy part time in DIT??

What about Richard Bruton with his MPhil in Economics from Oxford University and his career as an economist?

Enda doesn't like him anymore.

maxxie

Denerick wrote: »

I'd say FF will get around 30% of the vote, FG will get around 30%, followed by Labour on 25%, with SF and the others picking up the rest. Kenny as Taoiseach, with Rabbite as Finance Minister (if Gilmore had any decency at all he wouldn't let Burton anywhere near the ministry) The new coalition will all end in tears and general election 2012 will see FF return to power as the Irish people revert to form and elect the typical gombeen men who have so faithfully served their pathetic, petty narrow sectional interests for so long.

Although FFs poll numbers are poor, bear in mind that when the 'lads' return to constituencies they'll remind their neighbours how many funerals they went to in the last 5 years and how many filthy bogman hands they shaked also.

I predict you will vote FF in the election and remain ignorant..

Ardennes1944

maxxie wrote: »

I predict you will vote FF in the election and remain ignorant..

eh....i dont think he's for FF bud

Denerick

maxxie wrote: »

I predict you will vote FF in the election and remain ignorant..

Thanks for reminding me why I hold the people of this island in such low esteem.

Lockstep

maxxie wrote: »

I predict you will vote FF in the election and remain ignorant..

Make this sort of personal attack again you and you'll have a break from the forum.

PeterIanStaker

My election prediction, as always, is that the two Brians will go to Tony O'Reilly's house for a chat, and the Party Political Broadcast on Behalf of Fianna Fail Late Late show will be a FF circle jerk.

scr123

There seems to be an assumption that FF are just going to lie down and die
There seems to be an assumption that the electorate are going to vote ABFF
The ABFF are so obsessed with FF they cannot see they are are not riddled by holes but huge craters and FF will be exploiting this to the full

FF are up against it but I for one will be bitterly disappointed if FF do not get at least 30% of the vote

Never looked forward to an election campaign as much as this one

Denerick

scr123 wrote: »

There seems to be an assumption that FF are just going to lie down and die
There seems to be an assumption that the electorate are going to vote ABFF
The ABFF are so obsessed with FF they cannot see they are are not riddled by holes but huge craters and FF will be exploiting this to the full

FF are up against it but I for one will be bitterly disappointed if FF do not get at least 30% of the vote

Never looked forward to an election campaign as much as this one

People will vote with what they are comfortable with. Politics in Ireland is like supporting a team, you don't just let the team down when it loses a couple of games. Its unfortunate, but this is our sorry example of political virtue. Frankly we deserved the financial crash and much much more. We deserve a failed state, with no government institutions or constitution. The people of this island have time and time again shown that they are imbeciles.

At the same time, democracy is the only viable government structure, and one can only hope that citizens begin to live up to their obligations under their social contract with the state.

ghostdancer

Denerick wrote: »

Although FFs poll numbers are poor, bear in mind that when the 'lads' return to constituencies they'll remind their neighbours how many funerals they went to in the last 5 years and how many filthy bogman hands they shaked also.

FG are just as bad at this as FF are from what i've seen.

Eliot Rosewater

ghostdancer wrote: »

FG are just as bad at this as FF are from what i've seen.

Will you please explain exactly why you think that? It's been said a lot. Thanks.

Denerick

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Will you please explain exactly why you think that? It's been said a lot. Thanks.

FG has its fair share of gombeen men too.

Fo Real

I, for one, welcome the EU/IMF financial bailout and would be delighted if Ireland was relegated to just a tiny province on the peripheral edge of the United States of Europe.

We've lived up to our caricatures in the 1800s Punch magazine and proved we're incapable of governing ourselves. Thankfully, our economic soverignty has already been handed over to the more responsible Germans, making it difficult for us to waste more money on ugly one-off housing in scenic areas and paying outrageous wages to middle aged paper pushers in the civil service.

I believe the Paddy can be civilised, but it will take time. We must educate him on the benefits of living in densely populated urban areas as opposed to his bungalow hidden somewhere in the urban sprawl of a generic, faceless "new-town" in the midlands. He must be acquainted with the sophistication of European café culture rater than guzzling pint after pint in the dark corner of the manky village watering hole. Finally, Paddy has to learn to be an entrepreneur and make a living for himself, instead of wasting away on the dole complaining that the government won't give him a job. The MNCs aren't coming back. Stop relying on the Yanks and Japs for employment.

Face it. You're not grown-up enough to be independent. That's why you will come crawling back to FF.

OhNoYouDidn't

Denerick wrote: »

FG has its fair share of gombeen men too.

This I agree with. the main reason there are less gombeen men in FG is they are in power less.

Still think you are way overstating FF's returns to the detriment of Labour, which is wishful thinking on your part. They are the kingmakers.

There will be 5 viable options after the election, assuming something mental doesn't happen, and in order of probablility IMHO are:

1: FG & Labour
2: Labour and FG
3: Labour, SF, ULA
4: FG & FF
5: Labour & FF

I really think it will come down to the internal dynamic within Labour about whether they want to jump in with FG or SF (or indeed even FF), and the stickie factor cannot be underestimated.

It will be a fascinating internal debate as to whether they 'play it safe' with FG, or go for a ballsy left based alternative, which could see the likes of Richard Boyd Barrett in a junior ministerial job.

HarryPotter41

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Will you please explain exactly why you think that? It's been said a lot. Thanks.

I tend from various things I am involved in to go to a lot of funerals around Mayo.. The person I always meet as I arrive or leave, Michael Ring, FG TD. Thats why its said a lot. he hasn't been christened 14 funerals a day Ring for nothing. Fair play to John O'Mahoney though, he is doing his best to keep up with him.

Seanachai

Fo Real wrote: »

I, for one, welcome the EU/IMF financial bailout and would be delighted if Ireland was relegated to just a tiny province on the peripheral edge of the United States of Europe.

We've lived up to our caricatures in the 1800s Punch magazine and proved we're incapable of governing ourselves. Thankfully, our economic soverignty has already been handed over to the more responsible Germans, making it difficult for us to waste more money on ugly one-off housing in scenic areas and paying outrageous wages to middle aged paper pushers in the civil service.

I believe the Paddy can be civilised, but it will take time. We must educate him on the benefits of living in densely populated urban areas as opposed to his bungalow hidden somewhere in the urban sprawl of a generic, faceless "new-town" in the midlands. He must be acquainted with the sophistication of European café culture rater than guzzling pint after pint in the dark corner of the manky village watering hole. Finally, Paddy has to learn to be an entrepreneur and make a living for himself, instead of wasting away on the dole complaining that the government won't give him a job. The MNCs aren't coming back. Stop relying on the Yanks and Japs for employment.

Face it. You're not grown-up enough to be independent. That's why you will come crawling back to FF.

I don't think it's fair to lump everybody in under the gombeen\ignorant paddy stereotype. I get frustrated and apathetic at the voting decisions and behaviour of Irish people too but chastising people for not wanting to congregate more in towns and cities isn't cool imo. There's a lot to be said for rural living , gombeens and backwardness aside. I agree there is a lot of ugly one off housing , there's three of them built on reclaimed bog land across from my home place. They look like something out of Wisteria lane ffs , roman columns and the rest. I was struck by how traditional rural housing was when I visited France earlier this year. A more humble less pretentious attitude would be most welcome in the country alright but I think that's resurfacing naturally anyway.

The idealist in me would like to see a Labour\SF\ULA\independents government but the realist in me thinks FG\LAB will be the makeup of the next government. It mightn't go the full term though.

later12

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

There will be 5 viable options after the election, assuming something mental doesn't happen, and in order of probablility IMHO are:

3: Labour, SF, ULA

Dear God. That really would be a case of the last person out turning off the lights.

OhNoYouDidn't

later10 wrote: »

Dear God. That really would be a case of the last person out turning off the lights.

As opposed to what? The situation we are in now?

later12

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

As opposed to what? The situation we are in now?

Yes. When you go to bed tonight in Ireland you know that in the morning your ATM card will work, the bus will be late, the shops will be full and there will be people drinking double espresso skinny lattes with organic soya milk (fair trade) in cafés, or having dinner in restaurants, or just going about their daily business.

A country under hardline republicans, socialists and general crazies who dropped out of college because their economics lecturer was the oppressor that were to craaazy to fit into any other category apart from the Eva Morales Appreciation Society or the People Before Profit , would look far different. Probably Greece without the ATMs.

OhNoYouDidn't

later10 wrote: »

Yes. When you go to bed tonight in Ireland you know that in the morning your ATM card will work, the bus will be late, the shops will be full and there will be people drinking double espresso skinny lattes with organic soya milk (fair trade) in cafés, or having dinner in restaurants, or just going about their daily business.

A country under hardline republicans, socialists and general crazies who dropped out of college because their economics lecturer was the oppressor that were to craaazy to fit into any other category apart from the Eva Morales Appreciation Society or the People Before Profit , would look far different. Probably Greece without the ATMs.

Fianna Fail are playing the red scare card earlier than normal this yaer...

Last time hardline republican soclialists were in was the Rainbow Coalition in the 1990's and they handed FF the peace process, lower corporate tax rates and a Celtic Tiger without a housing bubble.

Its a risk I'm willing to take.

later12

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

F
Last time hardline republican soclialists were in was the Rainbow Coalition

I was talking specifically about SF and the United Left Alliance with their fruitcake membership like a bag of liquorice allsorts... a who's who of left wing nutjobs.

Labour might be red, but they're not really socialists, they're not even hardline. They're mostly just Bleh.

Edit: btw i'm not voting FF in this election

Oasis_Dublin

later10 wrote: »

A country under... socialists and general crazies who dropped out of college because their economics lecturer was the oppressor that were to craaazy to fit into any other category

Yeah, quick, get the free-market capitalists back in, they are nearing their target of half a million unemployed by the day, it would be kind of rude not to let them reach that target!

Eliot Rosewater

Denerick wrote: »

FG has its fair share of gombeen men too.

I don't doubt that there are gombeen elements in FG. However the statement I was responding to was "FG are just as bad as FF". I don't see any compelling evidence for such a broad statement.

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

Yeah, quick, get the free-market capitalists back in, they are nearing their target of half a million unemployed by the day, it would be kind of rude not to let them reach that target!

Well, if the government hadn't distorted market signals by feeding a housing boom then many of the people currently unemployed would have different professions. Yes, yes, the evil capitalists.

Anyway, Sinn Fein and the Hard Left have no alternative. Don't cut spending and kick the IMF out. Then what? As later10 said, stuff like ATMs working are things we take for granted. Were economic lunacy to govern the Ministry of Finance who knows what will happen. It just doesn't make sense.

One thing I can predict: if there is a ULA/Sinn Fein/Labour government I will be definitely emigrating. There's no point living in a country that doesn't reward hard work.

Oasis_Dublin

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Well, if the government hadn't distorted market signals by feeding a housing boom then many of the people currently unemployed would have different professions. Yes, yes, the evil capitalists.

... and the slowdown that began in 2002 would never have ended. It would have been a softer recession, but a recession none the less.

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

One thing I can predict: if there is a ULA/Sinn Fein/Labour government I will be definitely emigrating. There's no point living in a country that doesn't reward hard work.

I'm not voting for Sinn Féin but I thought they were socialists, not communists? Labour in Britain is on the left (admittedly not so much after the Third Way), Scandinavia has a history of leftist governments and I think we both know which of the 3 countries has the worst provision of services!

later12

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

I'm not voting for Sinn Féin but I thought they were socialists, not communists?

A party with a recent history of communicating by burying innocent people in bogland does not generally make clear such calibrated political or economic tunings.

Eliot Rosewater

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

... and the slowdown that began in 2002 would never have ended. It would have been a softer recession, but a recession none the less.

Perhaps, but even so, not as many people would have gone into the building trade. There were distorted market signals: there was an impression that one could become a bricklayer and be employed constantly. This impression was a direct result of government policy of feeding the housing sector. If it weren't for those distortions, less people would have become bricklayers, and those people would be less likely to be unemployed now.

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

I'm not voting for Sinn Féin but I thought they were socialists, not communists? Labour in Britain is on the left (admittedly not so much after the Third Way), Scandinavia has a history of leftist governments and I think we both know which of the 3 countries has the worst provision of services!

I'm judging Sinn Fein and the ULA on their own merits, not some claim they may stake over Scandinavia. They don't want to reduce spending, and they want to kick out the IMF. I can only see tears coming from that.

I'm a college student, and I work hard at what I do. I willing to put a lot of effort into things. When I graduate, I want that effort to be rewarded. I do not want to pay 60% (70%?) tax to pay for dubious entitlement programs and inefficient services. There is a certain amount I'm willing to tolerate, of course. But a Hard Left government is one which does not reward hard work.

Oasis_Dublin

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Perhaps, but even so, not as many people would have gone into the building trade. There were distorted market signals: there was an impression that one could become a bricklayer and be employed constantly. This impression was a direct result of government policy of feeding the housing sector. If it weren't for those distortions, less people would have become bricklayers, and those people would be less likely to be unemployed now.



I'm judging Sinn Fein and the ULA on their own merits, not some claim they may stake over Scandinavia. They don't want to reduce spending, and they want to kick out the IMF. I can only see tears coming from that.

I'm a college student, and I work hard at what I do. I willing to put a lot of effort into things. When I graduate, I want that effort to be rewarded. I do not want to pay 60% (70%?) tax to pay for dubious entitlement programs and inefficient services. There is a certain amount I'm willing to tolerate, of course. But a Hard Left government is one which does not reward hard work.

Without attempting to sounds pretentious, the bricklayers aren't exactly the most highly skilled people in the world. They more than likely would be unemployed in a recession.

I don't know if Sinn Féin makes any claim to being similar to Scandinavian Socialists. I merely pointed out that Britain and Denmark have far better service provision than little old Ireland and they have had leftish governments.

I'm a University student and I work extremely hard at what I do. I don't want my hard earned tax money going to some FF minister who will spend it on electronic voting machines or a private jet. There is a certain amount of right-wing free market economics than I'm willing to take but a hard right government only rewards a minority.

Oasis_Dublin

later10 wrote: »

A party with a recent history of communicating by burying innocent people in bogland does not generally make clear such calibrated political or economic tunings.

Communicating? I do like how people forget that there are nearly half a million people unemployed in Ireland. Still, let's stick to completely right-wing free market politics, as long as the politicians can afford to live happy then we better all be happy.

Eliot Rosewater

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

Without attempting to sounds pretentious, the bricklayers aren't exactly the most highly skilled people in the world. They more than likely would be unemployed in a recession.

The point I was making is that they could be better skilled if not for distorted market signals.

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

I'm a University student and I work extremely hard at what I do. I don't want my hard earned tax money going to some FF minister who will spend it on electronic voting machines or a private jet.

E-Voting: €54.6 million once off.
Social welfare: €18+ billion per year.

It's clear which one you should be focusing on if looking to reduce government spending.

Anyway, I think we're off-topic here. I predict that Denerick will be unhappy with the result!

later12

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

I do like how people forget that there are nearly half a million people unemployed in Ireland.

Why would they forget it when it isn't actually the case? There are in the region of 280,000 people unemployed. That's closer to 100,000 than 500,000.

But of course if anyone said there are almost 100,000 people unemployed they'd (quite rightly) have their head bitten off on this forum.

Oasis_Dublin

later10 wrote: »

Why would they forget it when it isn't actually the case? There are in the region of 280,000 people unemployed. That's closer to 100,000 than 500,000.

But of course if anyone said there are almost 100,000 people unemployed they'd (quite rightly) have their head bitten off on this forum.

440,000 people without a job. Don't be getting hung up on semantics!

later12

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

440,000 people without a job. Don't be getting hung up on semantics!

It's not semantics. The figure you quote includes many people with jobs, including seasonal workers, part time workers and students.

The unemployment figure is nowhere near that. It isn't semantics, it's clear fact.

Wolfe Tone

Denerick wrote: »

Thanks for reminding me why I hold the people of this island in such low esteem.

In fairness if you hate everyone here so much, you are well capable of getting the boat rather than coming on and complaining about how your peers are retards.