gambling on the x factor?

roy rodgers

this year has seen the x-factor been the most contraversial with rules been changed at the last minute and there is no where for the public to oversee if the right votes have been counted to the right act.
So I ask, is it right and fair for bookmakers to be still taking bets on this farce??

Mellor

Well why not, you are bettign on who will win, not who should win.
If anything the bookies are more likely to get screwed now

coughlan08

im glad its happened,because now the worst act goes every week as the judges decision is final,made a small fortune by backing page to be eliminated at 6/1 and then lumped the winnings on katy and then mary,its so predictable now,,ive already backed rebecca to win at 11/2..

ArmaniJeanss

roy rodgers wrote: »

this year has seen the x-factor been the most contraversial with rules been changed at the last minute and there is no where for the public to oversee if the right votes have been counted to the right act.
So I ask, is it right and fair for bookmakers to be still taking bets on this farce??

Yep, its been like this in reality tv for years, Big Brother is especially fun to be gambling on, trying to predict what rule change will occur next.

coughlan08 wrote: »

im glad its happened,because now the worst act goes every week as the judges decision is final,made a small fortune by backing page to be eliminated at 6/1 and then lumped the winnings on katy and then mary,its so predictable now,,ive already backed rebecca to win at 11/2..

Congrats on your bets. BUT, to say you used some sort of system in 'backing the worst act every week' is a bit optimistic. Wagner was clearly the worst act at the time you backed Paige and Katie to go, the latter 2 at least have a note in their head.

okidoki987

Cher next eliminated (value gone now it's 2/9).
Lay Matt at 10/11.
Back 1 direction to win.
One Direction and Matt 4/1 & One Direction and Rebecca 12/1.
Mary to have an Irish no 1 1/3
Mary to star in an ad for Tesco 4/5.

Thems the bets for X Factor

roy rodgers

Its funny because last week simon says after wanger gets voted out that some people were trying to derail the show but now its back with the public! then he changed the rules in the last hour that the semi-finals will be decided by the judges and not the public. and if i knew that on the saturday night i wouldnt backed mary to stay, I did have a feeling she would get through over cher on a public vote but then that was changed:mad:.
and why arent the results of the vote put up some where after the show??
and also on the joe duffy show today it turned out that the irish vote was not taken into count.
I smell a rat and a cheat and all bets should be off now in protest to the show!!

coughlan08

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Y
Congrats on your bets. BUT, to say you used some sort of system in 'backing the worst act every week' is a bit optimistic. Wagner was clearly the worst act at the time you backed Paige and Katie to go, the latter 2 at least have a note in their head.

i defo missing something here,what system..?

i just backed the contestant that was most likely to go home,it was not going to be wagner as there was a petition to keep him in..but once the best and most popular acts like mary(the whole of ireland behind her)rebecca,matt,cher,were left it was easy to eliminate the rest of the field and along with it wagner..no system whatsoever..


@roy rodgers..there not posted for obvious future betting opportunities,person with the least votes from the previous week will most likely be in the bottom 2,hence most likely to go home...thought that was quiet obvious to be honest..
ohh ya because if the bets from punters are "put off" thats really going to derail the show,a bit of since wouldnt go astray...:pac:

Juwwi

coughlan08 wrote: »

im glad its happened,because now the worst act goes every week as the judges decision is final,made a small fortune by backing page to be eliminated at 6/1 and then lumped the winnings on katy and then mary,its so predictable now,,ive already backed rebecca to win at 11/2..

As already said your plan contadicts itself.

Also you have lumped all the winnings on Rebecca to win which does'nt make sense ,she has been a drifter in recent weeks and is a negative because they have had two black female singers in recent years and there is a bigger market for a boy band or Matt to win.
l cant see her winning and is a lay at the current odds.

coughlan08

robbie1977 wrote: »

As already said your plan contadicts itself.

Also you have lumped all the winnings on Rebecca to win which does'nt make sense ,she has been a drifter in recent weeks and is a negative because they have had two black female singers in recent years and there is a bigger market for a boy band or Matt to win.
l cant see her winning and is a lay at the current odds.

never did i say i lumped all my winnings on rebecca...???
i just backed her as she has a better chance than 11/2

Kod-box

I backed Katie the week Paije went, how do you reckon he looked the most likely to go?

she was 5/4 and he was 6/1 having outperformed her everyweek.

I also have Rebecca from the very start at 10/1, just because she was tipped up in a few places.

Juwwi

coughlan08 wrote: »

never did i say i lumped all my winnings on rebecca...???
i just backed her as she has a better chance than 11/2

Apologies l read your post wrong.

ArmaniJeanss

coughlan08 wrote: »

im glad its happened,because now the worst act goes every week as the judges decision is final,made a small fortune by backing page to be eliminated at 6/1 and then lumped the winnings on katy and then mary,its so predictable now,,ive already backed rebecca to win at 11/2..

coughlan08 wrote: »

i defo missing something here,what system..?

i just backed the contestant that was most likely to go home,it was not going to be wagner as there was a petition to keep him in..but once the best and most popular acts like mary(the whole of ireland behind her)rebecca,matt,cher,were left it was easy to eliminate the rest of the field and along with it wagner..no system whatsoever..

I thought from your first post that you meant you'd "made a small fortune" as "its so predictable now" "because now the worst act goes every week as the judges decision is final". And I was just pointing out that clearly two of the acts you backed were not the 'worst act' at the time.
I obviously misunderstood, apologies. Though there does seem to be a contradiction in your first post.

royRodgers wrote:

and why arent the results of the vote put up some where after the show??

Mainly because there is no compulsion for any UK reality TV show to release these figures. The result is independently verified, but the exact votes are never released.

Betting on Reality TV is an absolute minefield - its completely unregulated and you have to take into account that the producers always desire a specific result. There is no 'governing body' so they can manipulate it as much as they want.
I like this aspect of it, the constant double guessing as to what the producers want, but joesoap punters should thread warily and keep bets small because there is no-one official to complain to.

coughlan08

Kod-box wrote: »

I backed Katie the week Paije went, how do you reckon he looked the most likely to go?

she was 5/4 and he was 6/1 having outperformed her everyweek.

I also have Rebecca from the very start at 10/1, just because she was tipped up in a few places.

well im a big fan of x factor and have watched every year since it began and thus have been abel to judge the closing stages of the competition very well.
page was getting a lot of praise from the judges but not from the public,there was so called leaks on twitter that he was going to be in trouble that week and was going to be in the bottom two,i knew even if katy was going to be in the bottom 2 the judges were going to save her as she has got a very bad press.
louis is also a massive fan of katy so that would of made it 2 votes each at the worst and along with her performance that week and comments from celebs that night on extra factor made the 6/1 massive value as he was the next likely in my book as wagner still had a very strong petition...
its easy when you take all info aboard..

Juwwi

Just out of curiosity when did you get 6/1 for paige to go that week.?

coughlan08

robbie1977 wrote: »

Just out of curiosity when did you get 6/1 for paige to go that week.?

is was there all that week,if i remember correctly the odds were.
katy=5/4
wagner=5/2
paije=6/1

i think mary was in there somewhere aswel not sure what price though

roy rodgers

mary was 1/2 at best to go this week
I think cowell had her well laid during the week.:pac:
my money is on one direction to win it still at 5/2.
but knowning the x factor wanger couldstill win it!!

coughlan08

best price was 4/11.
i was all over it..

matt and rebecca were defos..
cher has already got offers from jay zs label and is going to release a single with cherl so was always going to be voted through by the judges.....
mary was about 1/5 in my view,4/11 ill take that...

Juwwi

I backed Matt at 10/3 weeks ago but am a bit worried about One Direction as Cowell has so much sway over what happens.

If there is any justice at all Rebbeca or Matt are the only deserable winners but who knows what way they will give prime singing slots out at and pair them up with popular live acts.

coughlan08

10/3...what are you serious...:eek:
what bookie was giving out those odds,

for as long as the show started i can only remember odds of 7/4 15/8 2/1 at best......

Juwwi

coughlan08 wrote: »

10/3...what are you serious...:eek:
what bookie was giving out those odds,

for as long as the show started i can only remember odds of 7/4 15/8 2/1 at best......

Stan james in phibsboro did and after l did him he hit 9/2 in boyles
when for a week Aiden went favourite.

I was gona top up again but didnt.:(


EDIT Aiden was only fav for 1 week

Juwwi

Click on the persons name on oddschecker and it tells you what price they were on a previous day .

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/tv/x-factor/winning-act

Thats the same with football and horses ,click on arsenal in the league and u can see roughly what price they were on a particular date.


Looking at that matt was 14/1 at the very start.

Tar.Aldarion

It was so obvious who was going the last few weeks (well paije and katie, didnt know which for sure that week, thought paije with simons investment in katie), tricky final, I'd guess one direction to win, at a guessss loike.

okidoki987

did have a feeling she would get through over cher on a public vote but then that was changed.
and why arent the results of the vote put up some where after the show??
and also on the joe duffy show today it turned out that the irish vote was not taken into count.

If it went to the judges after a sing off, you would have said it would be deadlock.
Cheryl = Cher
Louis = Mary
Simon = Cher
&
Danni = considering she was slagging off Cher for the last few weeks and wasn't a fan, you would have thought she would have voted for Mary.
This would have sent it to Deadlock and I guess Cher would have been in trouble.
On the Saturday before the show went live, Mary was 4/5 to go!
Start of show she was 8/11, after she sang she went to 4/11.
Sunday went to 2/7 and then 1/6.

They don't announce the weekly results until after the show finishes.
If they did people would know what way the voting was going and this would have an effect on the people voting and also the odds each week.

If the Irish votes didn't count, there should be a refund of the cost to the people who paid money to vote.

Kod-box

Read somewhere that Eminem is lined up for the show next week and they needed Cher in to do a duet with him, will be interesting to see if this happens now.

Tar.Aldarion

I really thought danni would go for cher tbh, cher did a ballad for dannis vote. = in the bag
she had 2 votes already no matter what.


the votes are leaked each weak btw, beforehand

okidoki987

the votes are leaked each weak btw, beforehand

How so if they don't know before the w/e who will be in the final two?

Tar.Aldarion

They are released earlier in the day, so it's highly likely you know who will be bottom 2

ziedth

coughlan08 wrote: »

i defo missing something here,what system..?

i just backed the contestant that was most likely to go home,it was not going to be wagner as there was a petition to keep him in..but once the best and most popular acts like mary(the whole of ireland behind her)rebecca,matt,cher,were left it was easy to eliminate the rest of the field and along with it wagner..no system whatsoever..


@roy rodgers..there not posted for obvious future betting opportunities,person with the least votes from the previous week will most likely be in the bottom 2,hence most likely to go home...thought that was quiet obvious to be honest..
ohh ya because if the bets from punters are "put off" thats really going to derail the show,a bit of since wouldnt go astray...:pac:

I have to agree with this, even if you do the smallest amount of research (in my case just Reading the x factor thread in reality TV) and bet on who the majority think will go home I've been doing ok out of it.

okidoki987

Rumour for w/e is 1 goes Saturday night, 1 goes after 1st show Sunday, after that it's just 2 left = Winner One Direction .

SantryRed

okidoki987 wrote: »

Rumour for w/e is 1 goes Saturday night, 1 goes after 1st show Sunday, after that it's just 2 left = Winner One Direction .

One Direction won't win. Not a hope. There's no point as they already have a deal when they're out. It's a straight shoot out between Matt and Rebecca. I think Rebecca might nick it.

okidoki987

One Direction will get all the young female teenage votes.
Not 100% sure where Matt or Rebecca will get theirs.

coughlan08

okidoki987 wrote: »

Not 100% sure where Matt or Rebecca will get theirs.

talent....:rolleyes:

okidoki987

Since when did talent have anything to do with X Factor :rolleyes:

coughlan08

okidoki987 wrote: »

Since when did talent have anything to do with X Factor :rolleyes:

dont be stupid,at the end of the day the best act wins each year...fact.
the legit voters at the end of the day vote for the most talented act,thus wagner and other retarded acts like jedward get voted out towards the end of the series....rebecca or matt for me,im already on rebecca at 11/2 as its great value imo,matt to win but im not getting involved at odds on...

Kod-box

Runners up in these things usually go on to be more successful in the long run though, dont they?

okidoki987

....rebecca or matt

We'll see in 2 days time.
5/6 Matt
3/1 One Direction
3/1 Rebecca
Zillions Cher

roy rodgers

one direction all the way.
it will be the first time a group will win the x factor and then they will go on to be the next big boy band in the world. westlife and takethat are to old nowadays. and then simon will take the credit of it and tell the world how brilliant his show is.

put the house on them!! wait how does that work if your house is in negitive equity:eek:

iggy

coughlan08 wrote: »

dont be stupid,at the end of the day the best act wins each year...fact.
the legit voters at the end of the day vote for the most talented act,thus wagner and other retarded acts like jedward get voted out towards the end of the series....rebecca or matt for me,im already on rebecca at 11/2 as its great value imo,matt to win but im not getting involved at odds on...

Why wouldn't u bet on Matt to win?
If it's the short odds that's putting u off, I find strange as most of your bets are small prices.

Sir Vival

coughlan08 wrote: »

dont be stupid,at the end of the day the best act wins each year...fact.
the legit voters at the end of the day vote for the most talented act......matt to win but im not getting involved at odds on...

Surely matt is great value @4/5 to win then by your reasoning... No?

Vurnon San Benito

I'm all over One Direction at 15/4.
I think they'll win it to be honest.

As for talent winning this competition, not really.
Neither Matt, or Rebecca are sensational.

I think Matt's overrated, but that's my opinion.
As for Rebecca, very unique style and there's a gap in the market for her!

I just can't look past One Direction winning it!
Could be wrong!

coughlan08

iggy wrote: »

Why wouldn't u bet on Matt to win?
If it's the short odds that's putting u off, I find strange as most of your bets are small prices.

because i dont think its value,just because its short odds you still have to take a value bet and hes not at 5/6..rebecca was value at 11/2 and thats the only reason i took it,also she is my favourite as her voice is so unique and she seems so vulnerable when she sings which i love,she just doesnt know how good she is..now at 11/4/,3/1 there is no value and i wouldnt back her at that price..

Sir Vival wrote: »

Surely matt is great value @4/5 to win then by your reasoning... No?

no, theres no value to be had at that price,but yet i still think hes the one to beat...

Doocey wrote: »

I'm all over One Direction at 15/4.
I think they'll win it to be honest.

As for talent winning this competition, not really.
Neither Matt, or Rebecca are sensational.

I think Matt's overrated, but that's my opinion.
As for Rebecca, very unique style and there's a gap in the market for her!

I just can't look past One Direction winning it!
Could be wrong!

one direction are prob a value bet if nothing else but i just hate them especially niall from ireland,if you ever see him been interviewed, its just cringe worthy,,he cant sing and thinks hes the bees knees..
i spose i cant tlk really as hes already got a million dollar contract..ffs.:pac:
i hope matt or rebecca win as i always like to see a talented person progress,my pokeet says rebecca though..

okidoki987

In fairness to One Direction, they were 5 guys put together and they had to get to know each other very quickly and have done remarkably well since.
Good start by Matt.

okidoki987

Didnt think Rebecca was as good as she has been previously.

okidoki987

One Direction were okay.
Cher = brutal song.
Interesting to see what the 2nd songs are like.

Sir Vival

At this stage of the competition I don't think the finalists performances matter that much. The people who vote already have their favourite and won't be swayed by one performance.

okidoki987

Evens Matt

okidoki987

Average by One Direction.
Cher very good but still next out.

okidoki987

Isn't that what happened to Rydian a couple of years ago?
He sang with Katherine Jones in 2007 and came 2nd even though he was the best singer to Leon Jackson who only won because he sang with Kylie.

okidoki987

No shocks there, Matt, One Direction & Rebecca final 3.

Sir Vival

okidoki987 wrote: »

Isn't that what happened to Rydian a couple of years ago?
He sang with Katherine Jones in 2007 and came 2nd even though he was the best singer to Leon Jackson who only won because he sang with Kylie.

MMmmmm no. Rydian was a wacky cocky/confident/arrogant opera singer. Leon was a true pop singer and popular with the teen/pre-teen girls. Only one winner there.

okidoki987

Rydian is appearing in West End and Leon is.......doing what now?
Nuff said.