What happens if Ireland leaves the euro?

In this situation how would one avoid getting your cash held in bank accounts devalued? One way I can think of is holding precious metals and / or foreign equities but what if you want to hold cash?

Mort5000

Open a bank account in a non-euro country?

dearg lady

Mort5000 wrote: »

Open a bank account in a non-euro country?

What the easiest way to do this? Would you not need an address in the country?

Mort5000

Well, I asked HSBC about this and they said they'd be happy enough to open a bank account if I show up with my passport and proof of address.

dearg lady

Mort5000 wrote: »

Well, I asked HSBC about this and they said they'd be happy enough to open a bank account if I show up with my passport and proof of address.

Thanks! So do they have branches here? Or it would be to do that when you're away?

Mort5000

Not sure if they do.
My question specifically related to opening an account whilst on a weekend in London.
I guess you could try heading up to NI to a branch there

irishh_bob

Mort5000 wrote: »

Well, I asked HSBC about this and they said they'd be happy enough to open a bank account if I show up with my passport and proof of address.

hsbc are vultures , easily the worst bank ive ever dealt with , they dont attempt to hide thier plans to screw you to the wall , the exchange rate they give you when transfering from once currency to another is several points below any other bank , you cannot ring a branch direct , instead you ring a customer service number which involves making a call to the uk and waiting around 15 mins to speak to anyone , online banking is a shambles and if like me , you have your money in a dollar account , you cant actually check your balance unless you phone them up

Jim2007

glasso wrote: »

In this situation how would one avoid getting your cash held in bank accounts devalued? One way I can think of is holding precious metals and / or foreign equities but what if you want to hold cash?

Ireland is more likely to launch a space program, than to leave the Euro! There is not legal or technical way for any country to exit the Euro zone without out the whole union breaking up at the same time. This is one of the more realistic articles I've seen on the topic for a long time. The bottom line here is that joining the Euro is a one way trip - there is no return!

By moving your money into precious metals, foreign equities and foreign currencies you are exposing yourself to some very real risks, as opposed a very hypothetical risks!

good luck with that,

Jim.

Jim2007

Jim2007 wrote: »

Ireland is more likely to launch a space program, than to leave the Euro! There is not legal or technical way for any country to exit the Euro zone without out the whole union breaking up at the same time. This is one of the more realistic articles I've seen on the topic for a long time. The bottom line here is that joining the Euro is a one way trip - there is no return!

By moving your money into precious metals, foreign equities and foreign currencies you are exposing yourself to some very real risks, as opposed a very hypothetical risks!

good luck with that,

Jim.

And most people would have said that you were mad if you said 4 years ago that AIB and BOI would be majority government owned....
If Spain goes belly up it may well be too expensive / painful to bail out and the EMU could disintegrate - it could easily be a case of Ireland thrown out of the euro due to break-up - same thing...

Jim2007

glasso wrote: »

And most people would have said that you were mad if you said 4 years ago that AIB and BOI would be majority government owned....

That is why I don't listen to "most people" when it comes to investing!

Good luck with that,

Jim

woodseb

Here's another article on the subject - http://www.economist.com/node/17629757

suffice to say the practicalities of leaving the currency while the currency you are leaving is still valid make it extremely difficult - and that's before all the legal implications

most people who have been calling for things like 'default' and 'leaving the euro' are unaware of the practical implications of making that move

Jim2007

Jim2007 wrote: »

That is why I don't listen to "most people" when it comes to investing!

Good luck with that,

Jim

good luck with what? I'm just putting it out there as a debate. No need for sanctimonious little "Good luck with that" crap, cheers.

woodseb

glasso wrote: »

good luck with what? I'm just putting it out there as a debate. No need for sanctimonious little "Good luck with that" crap, cheers.

i think that's Jim's signature on all his posts, calm down:rolleyes:

steve9859

Jim2007 wrote: »

Ireland is more likely to launch a space program, than to leave the Euro! There is not legal or technical way for any country to exit the Euro zone without out the whole union breaking up at the same time. This is one of the more realistic articles I've seen on the topic for a long time. The bottom line here is that joining the Euro is a one way trip - there is no return!

By moving your money into precious metals, foreign equities and foreign currencies you are exposing yourself to some very real risks, as opposed a very hypothetical risks!

good luck with that,

Jim.

It is true to say that Ireland will not leave unilaterally, but it is too glib to say that the Euro project is a one way street. What is growth in the Eurozone does not materialise. You can do the sums on the back of a postcard to establish that the position is unsustainable.

I think that ireland will ultimately leave the euro in its current form. I suspect, as do many commentators who have been right so far, that it will be after the Eurozone debt problems and political infighting become too large to manage. The Germans have already made it clear that they want no part of a eurobond programme that could have provided some kind of solution. At this time I think Ireland and others will leave, but as part of a managed restructuring of the single currency, including managed devaluations and capital restrictions, driven by the larger economies.

To say that the euro is a one way trip as there is no legislation to allow break up is nonsense. Legislation can be written. Though any exit will not be without pain, if managed over time as part of a europe wide restructuing, it does not have to spell armageddon.

martyoo

good luck with what? I'm just putting it out there as a debate. No need for sanctimonious little "Good luck with that" crap, cheers.

martyoo

The Economist had some interesting articles on the subject last week.

Link

mono627

glasso wrote: »

good luck with what? I'm just putting it out there as a debate. No need for sanctimonious little "Good luck with that" crap, cheers.

As Woodseb said, it's Jim's sig. He's also one of the best posters on here so I'd take what he has to say on board.

Jim2007

Jim2007 wrote: »

Ireland is more likely to launch a space program, than to leave the Euro!

good luck with that,

Jim.

still of this opinion mate?!

Mr_Roger_Bongos

The ECB, IMF and various ratings agencies have commended ireland on the success thus far of their austerity measures.

Each has outlined that there is still some way to go, but we're making better progress than Greece (wouldn't be hard) and Portugal in putting the house in order.

Regardless, it would have been almost impossible for Ireland to leave the euro, it's even more unlikely now.

liammur

Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »

The ECB, IMF and various ratings agencies have commended ireland on the success thus far of their austerity measures.

Each has outlined that there is still some way to go, but we're making better progress than Greece (wouldn't be hard) and Portugal in putting the house in order.

Regardless, it would have been almost impossible for Ireland to leave the euro, it's even more unlikely now.

It's not a case of Ireland leaving the € on it's own. If Greece defaults, the € will break up and within a few hours the entire banking system will have frozen. Only a fool will have large deposits in Irish banks now imo.

handlemaster

liammur wrote: »

It's not a case of Ireland leaving the € on it's own. If Greece defaults, the € will break up and within a few hours the entire banking system will have frozen. Only a fool will have large deposits in Irish banks now imo.

Are you saying you have moved your savings out of the euro ?

Mr_Roger_Bongos

liammur wrote: »

It's not a case of Ireland leaving the € on it's own. If Greece defaults, the € will break up and within a few hours the entire banking system will have frozen. Only a fool will have large deposits in Irish banks now imo.

My comment was in relation to the Ireland and the Eurozone, not the safety of bank deposits.

Of course it makes sense to spread large deposits around, i've advocated that in other threads for those who aware of the costs and risks involved.

liammur

handlemaster wrote: »

Are you saying you have moved your savings out of the euro ?

Yes, I have only around €10K in my accounts now. I read in an article somewhere M Noonan has his money invested abroad, that doesn't give me much confidence, regardless of what they tell us.

irishh_bob

Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »

The ECB, IMF and various ratings agencies have commended ireland on the success thus far of their austerity measures.

Each has outlined that there is still some way to go, but we're making better progress than Greece (wouldn't be hard) and Portugal in putting the house in order.

Regardless, it would have been almost impossible for Ireland to leave the euro, it's even more unlikely now.

our politicians are too spineless to take us out of the euro , they will do whatever europe commands , even that means the abolition of an irish finance minister to be replaced with one european finance minister , what is more likely is that germany might leave the euro , thier electorate may not stand for the massive burden being asked of them to bail out italy and spain , let alone greece , we in ireland could find ourself in the euro in two years but a euro which is without germany and therefore worth half of what it is now

Mr_Roger_Bongos

Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »

My comment was in relation to the Ireland and the Eurozone, not the safety of bank deposits.

Of course it makes sense to spread large deposits around, i've advocated that in other threads for those who aware of the costs and risks involved.

spread deposits around where? the only way would be to get money out of the country - i.e. in a foreign bank a/c in a foreign country.

an account in Ireland with a foreign bank in Ireland e.g. rabobank is the same as having it with an Irish bank if we left the currency / kicked out / 2-tier euro / other this would also be effectively devalued.

another option is to hold shares in a company listed on a non-euro exchange. or to buy foreign bonds. what options are people considering...?

liammur

glasso wrote: »

spread deposits around where? the only way would be to get money out of the country - i.e. in a foreign bank a/c in a foreign country.

an account in Ireland with a foreign bank in Ireland e.g. rabobank is the same as having it with an Irish bank if we left the currency / kicked out / 2-tier euro / other this would also be effectively devalued.

another option is to hold shares in a company listed on a non-euro exchange. or to buy foreign bonds. what options are people considering...?

There's no doubt it's not easy. THe thing to remember about shares is, if the € goes they will crash. I lived in London for 20 years, so I have UK bank accounts.
Maybe buying the swiss franc would be safe haven.

Mr_Roger_Bongos

glasso wrote: »

spread deposits around where? the only way would be to get money out of the country - i.e. in a foreign bank a/c in a foreign country.

another option is to hold shares in a company listed on a non-euro exchange. or to buy foreign bonds. what options are people considering...?

Uk bank accounts for a start? I think im right in saying all you need to open an account is drive north with all the usual ID and a deposit.

If you understand the risks involved in FX, go and exchange euro for physical currency (which ever you feel is safest).

I'm going to stop making suggestions because everyone will have alot more serious things to worry about if the Euro collapses and Ireland's left without support. I.e. What do you think would happen your house value!

fodda

Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »

I'm going to stop making suggestions because everyone will have alot more serious things to worry about if the Euro collapses and Ireland's left without support. I.e. What do you think would happen your house value!

:DI nearly fell off my chair with this one:D

The answer is it will be worth less than half it is right now or ever will be again in Ireland approx.........7.49 euro:D Same as everybody elses in Ireland:D:D

steve9859

Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »

Uk bank accounts for a start? I think im right in saying all you need to open an account is drive north with all the usual ID and a deposit.

HSBC let you open an account with just your irish passport and a utility bill on your irish address. No deposit needed at account opening. Dont know about the other banks. You dont get a switch (laser) card or chequebook, but it is somewhere to park some cash. Opened one in London a few weeks ago

irishh_bob

steve9859 wrote: »

HSBC let you open an account with just your irish passport and a utility bill on your irish address. No deposit needed at account opening. Dont know about the other banks. You dont get a switch (laser) card or chequebook, but it is somewhere to park some cash. Opened one in London a few weeks ago

id rather loose every cent i own than open an account with hsbc , dreadfull customer service and extortionate forex rates + pittfull interest rates on savings

steve9859

irishh_bob wrote: »

steve9859 wrote: »

HSBC let you open an account with just your irish passport and a utility bill on your irish address. No deposit needed at account opening. Dont know about the other banks. You dont get a switch (laser) card or chequebook, but it is somewhere to park some cash. Opened one in London a few weeks ago

id rather loose every cent i own than open an account with hsbc , dreadfull customer service and extortionate forex rates + pittfull interest rates on savings

They didn't need to be bailed out, so they got my vote

Low Energy Eng

The whole notion of someone leaving the Euro is madness, a default is inevitable and it'll be in the form of lower interest rates (and it certainly wont trigger armegeddon as some are predicting)

Alot of talk of countries leaving but I think its all a smoke screen

The likelyhood is a Euro bond will be created and all EU countries have their financials centralised in Germany/Brussels

irishh_bob

Low Energy Eng wrote: »

The whole notion of someone leaving the Euro is madness, a default is inevitable and it'll be in the form of lower interest rates (and it certainly wont trigger armegeddon as some are predicting)

Alot of talk of countries leaving but I think its all a smoke screen

The likelyhood is a Euro bond will be created and all EU countries have their financials centralised in Germany/Brussels

so your ok with ireland surrendering economic sovereignty entirely ? , with germany calling the shots , wages and wellfare will be cut just as if we left the euro , wages and wellfare would fall , either way , were facing hardship

liammur

irishh_bob wrote: »

so your ok with ireland surrendering economic sovereignty entirely ? , with germany calling the shots , wages and wellfare will be cut just as if we left the euro , wages and wellfare would fall , either way , were facing hardship

But I wonder would B Ahern's multiple pensions be cut.

christeb

I'm hedging my bets on the €, literally. In the process of opening up a DKr account in Denmark, as I've family over there (will be in my name). Not taking any chances, no one really knows what's around the corner. There's been so much madness already, we're kinda numbed to all the new depths that we're seeing

Low Energy Eng

irishh_bob wrote: »

so your ok with ireland surrendering economic sovereignty entirely ? , with germany calling the shots , wages and wellfare will be cut just as if we left the euro , wages and wellfare would fall , either way , were facing hardship

Who said im ok with it? i wish we could handle our own affairs but it seems the bunch of ff government cronies were "leading" the country blindly

The eurobond amalgamation will be branded as required for "strenghtening" europes future growth, all the banks will try plug it as a good thing for business and prosperity etc

This is how I see it panning out

steve9859

Low Energy Eng wrote: »

irishh_bob wrote: »

so your ok with ireland surrendering economic sovereignty entirely ? , with germany calling the shots , wages and wellfare will be cut just as if we left the euro , wages and wellfare would fall , either way , were facing hardship

Who said im ok with it? i wish we could handle our own affairs but it seems the bunch of ff government cronies were "leading" the country blindly

The eurobond amalgamation will be branded as required for "strenghtening" europes future growth, all the banks will try plug it as a good thing for business and prosperity etc

This is how I see it panning out

There are many, especially in the uk, who believe that it was the plan all along. OK, no-one would have wanted a crisis as large as we are in now, that is true, but at the same time those in power in Europe knew the Euro project would not work in the long run without political consolidation. That political change wouldn't have been a runner if it was proposed at the start though, so they set up a single currency, and then just waited until that forced political union

It is a cynical way of looking at it, but looking at how the European leaders have a complete disdain for the democratic process, I can quite believe that that was always the intention of the founders of this euro project.

I don't think there is any chance of anyone pulling out, or the thing collapsing. There is just too much political capital invested in it

Low Energy Eng

steve9859 wrote: »

There are many, especially in the uk, who believe that it was the plan all along. OK, no-one would have wanted a crisis as large as we are in now, that is true, but at the same time those in power in Europe knew the Euro project would not work in the long run without political consolidation. That political change wouldn't have been a runner if it was proposed at the start though, so they set up a single currency, and then just waited until that forced political union

It is a cynical way of looking at it, but looking at how the European leaders have a complete disdain for the democratic process, I can quite believe that that was always the intention of the founders of this euro project.

I don't think there is any chance of anyone pulling out, or the thing collapsing. There is just too much political capital invested in it

True, I think the Euro is the creation of banks and this has been the long term plan wheter our politicians were aware of it or not.
Ireland will still be required to ensure that we keep our books are balanced, and in this way it will be branded we still have our own sovereignty, just like each state over in the US is expected to balance its books, but the Fed will always step in
And people considering buying US$ as a safe haven from the € should look at the mess that state is currently in

BESman

Jim2007 wrote: »

Ireland is more likely to launch a space program, than to leave the Euro! There is not legal or technical way for any country to exit the Euro zone without out the whole union breaking up at the same time. This is one of the more realistic articles I've seen on the topic for a long time. The bottom line here is that joining the Euro is a one way trip - there is no return!

By moving your money into precious metals, foreign equities and foreign currencies you are exposing yourself to some very real risks, as opposed a very hypothetical risks!

good luck with that,

Jim.

Where is smug Jim now?

I'd like to point out some observations that the last couple of years have taught us:

a) No one knows anything about anything when it comes to finance.

b) To describe economics as the dismal science is misleading. It needs to be a science first. I am a reformed economist before people argue that I don't know what I'm talking about. Everyone involved in this field knows that its a load of hokum, but they can't come out and say this because all their qualifications become worthless and they have to change career.

c) The more expert and conservative one claims to be, the more wrong they tend to be.


This is a fact - The euro has failed. The whole project was lunacy. Even though economics is not a science, there are a lot of clever individuals who are involved in the field and many opposed the creation of the euro.

This is a fact - The euro in its current form will not exist within two years.

This is a fact - Certain posters were wrong. Many leading commentators were wrong. Many claimed Irish banks were well capitalised and that the property market would endure a soft landing.

Mass consensus isn't always right. Consensus reality can be characterised as when enough people think something is true, it takes on a life of its own and there are numerous examples in history of how disasterous this can be.

irishh_bob

BESman wrote: »

Where is smug Jim now?

I'd like to point out some observations that the last couple of years have taught us:

a) No one knows anything about anything when it comes to finance.

b) To describe economics as the dismal science is misleading. It needs to be a science first. I am a reformed economist before people argue that I don't know what I'm talking about. Everyone involved in this field knows that its a load of hokum, but they can't come out and say this because all their qualifications become worthless and they have to change career.

c) The more expert and conservative one claims to be, the more wrong they tend to be.


This is a fact - The euro has failed. The whole project was lunacy. Even though economics is not a science, there are a lot of clever individuals who are involved in the field and many opposed the creation of the euro.

This is a fact - The euro in its current form will not exist within two years.

This is a fact - Certain posters were wrong. Many leading commentators were wrong. Many claimed Irish banks were well capitalised and that the property market would endure a soft landing.

Mass consensus isn't always right. Consensus reality can be characterised as when enough people think something is true, it takes on a life of its own and there are numerous examples in history of how disasterous this can be.

two years seems a long time considering the mire we find ourselves in right now , on a different note , whats with the collapse ( with a small c ) in gold price and is its bull run over

BESman

irishh_bob wrote: »

two years seems a long time considering the mire we find ourselves in right now , on a different note , whats with the collapse ( with a small c ) in gold price and is its bull run over

I've given myself a generous time range...

Don't know what the story is with gold, but as with all commodities, its not immune to dips.

Idu

irishh_bob wrote: »

two years seems a long time considering the mire we find ourselves in right now , on a different note , whats with the collapse ( with a small c ) in gold price and is its bull run over

CME raised the margin on gold and silver

steve9859

BESman wrote: »

Where is smug Jim now?

I'd like to point out some observations that the last couple of years have taught us:

a) No one knows anything about anything when it comes to finance.

b) To describe economics as the dismal science is misleading. It needs to be a science first. I am a reformed economist before people argue that I don't know what I'm talking about. Everyone involved in this field knows that its a load of hokum, but they can't come out and say this because all their qualifications become worthless and they have to change career.

c) The more expert and conservative one claims to be, the more wrong they tend to be.


This is a fact - The euro has failed. The whole project was lunacy. Even though economics is not a science, there are a lot of clever individuals who are involved in the field and many opposed the creation of the euro.

This is a fact - The euro in its current form will not exist within two years.

This is a fact - Certain posters were wrong. Many leading commentators were wrong. Many claimed Irish banks were well capitalised and that the property market would endure a soft landing.

Mass consensus isn't always right. Consensus reality can be characterised as when enough people think something is true, it takes on a life of its own and there are numerous examples in history of how disasterous this can be.

I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment. But unfortunately I think that you underestimate the stubbornness and determination of the European political elite to hold their project together, no matter what the cost to the taxpayer (to whom they all now show complete disdain). The bailout numbers being discussed now, in the context of effectively zero economic growth, will lead to a decade or more of savage austerity, all with the aim of holding the Euro together. I fear it will take mass civil unrest at a level never before seen in the western world to steer them off that course and give up on the euro project.

Jim2007

glasso wrote: »

still of this opinion mate?!

Yes, I don't see any reason at this point to change my mind. Despite all the negative press Ireland is making progress... and it is very important for it's Euro partners that it is a success, because they will have to hard time with Greece for a long time to come.

Jim.

Jim2007

BESman wrote: »

Where is smug Jim now?

I'm still here, doing the same old thing - investing based on facts and my own analysis, not popular opinion!

BESman wrote: »

a) No one knows anything about anything when it comes to finance.

Most portfolios I've seen came out a few percent ahead over the past 2 years and over all are either at break point or a marginally ahead. But these are managed by people who stayed the course, did not chase the latest fads or get too greedy in any one asset class. So no I would not agree with this statement.

BESman wrote: »

This is a fact - The euro has failed. The whole project was lunacy. Even though economics is not a science, there are a lot of clever individuals who are involved in the field and many opposed the creation of the euro.

This is a fact - The euro in its current form will not exist within two years.

These are opinions not facts! My expectation is that over the next 5 or 6 years is that the Euro zone will become much more tightly integrated and that will be achieved in the typical European way of debate and consensus type decision making. This has always been the way that Europe goes about make decision and we should not expect it to change now, it is the European way!

Best Regards,

Jim

fodda

Thing is though Jim, European leaders do not rate much in the world or in financial circles and regardless of what they want or think they can impose on us all, if the rest of the world do not get it........they simply wont buy it.

Yesterday they "invented" trillions of euros from fresh air, this on top of the hundreds of billions they have already invented. You try and invent money to pay your bills and see how long you get away with it:)....Yes that's right Jim people will not believe it never mind accept it.

Perhaps you may like to watch a fellow top investor speaking on the BBC news yesterday about the euro and stock markets.......Be sitting down before hand though:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqN3amj6AcE

books4sale

^^^^Well, I was sitting down but sure I may as well have been standing cause I heard nothin' new.

THis guy's looking after his own self interest and its just his opinion.

Just another merchant of propaganda. :cool:

steve9859

fodda wrote: »

Perhaps you may like to watch a fellow top investor speaking on the BBC news yesterday about the euro and stock markets.......Be sitting down before hand though:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqN3amj6AcE

He's just talking up his own agenda. Probably massively short bank stocks or something

fodda

Yes i thought that at first but watched it again and he was only answering the question each time, if he was on his own agenda he could have made his points at the beginning but never made any points until asked...........but as you say we all know the end is nigh.

Low Energy Eng

fodda wrote: »

Yesterday they "invented" trillions of euros from fresh air, this on top of the hundreds of billions they have already invented. You try and invent money to pay your bills and see how long you get away with it:)....Yes that's right Jim people will not believe it never mind accept it.

The US are at it like there's no tomorrow and it seems people are flocking to the "safe haven" of US bonds!

steve9859

fodda wrote: »

Yes i thought that at first but watched it again and he was only answering the question each time, if he was on his own agenda he could have made his points at the beginning but never made any points until asked...........but as you say we all know the end is nigh.

I actually don't agree the end is nigh. I think people underestimate the determination of euro politicians and beauracrats to hold the thing together, no matter what the cost

(I'm not saying that is right - I always hated the euro, being brought up a British eurosceptic - but i still think this is a political game)