Donegal South-West Results/Tallies

whatawaster

Earliest tallies according to Newstalk, with 14% of boxes opened:

Sinn Fein 33%
Fine Gael 26%
Fianna Fail 16%
Labour 10%


Disaster for FF if true. Poor result for Labour (though not surprising given their candidate).

Decent showing from FG.

Poly

If FF ends up with 16% then the RedC polls were bang on.

whatawaster

Poly wrote: »

If FF ends up with 16% then the RedC polls were bang on.

they'd actually be overstating FF support in that case.

If FF are at 17% nationally, that would probably translate as 20%+ in places like Donegal, and down nearer 10% in Dublin.

Poly

Pat kenny show reporting

SF 37.8%
FG 22.2
FF 19.7

del_c

whatawaster wrote: »

they'd actually be overstating FF support in that case.

If FF are at 17% nationally, that would probably translate as 20%+ in places like Donegal, and down nearer 10% in Dublin.

Yep, would be interesting to hear the pattern of transfers in the by election...this might prove a very damagin pattern for fianna fail nationally, i don't see them picking up transfers from many other parties.

whatawaster

latest from RTE:

47 boxes open (not sure what % that is), with a good geographical spread apparantly.

SF - 37%
FG - 22%
FF - 19%
Lab - 11%
IND - 11%

deanh

Poly wrote: »

If FF ends up with 16% then the RedC polls were bang on.

but wrong for most other candidates. Opinion polls in Ireland never give a very accurate analysis.

murphaph

So almost 1 in person in 5 still believes FF is the best bet for this country....Jesus Christ. Will it take Brian Cowen to personally kick these idiots in the balls before they stop voting for this bunch of cut throats and thieves?

whatawaster

murphaph wrote: »

So almost 1 in person in 5 still believes FF is the best bet for this country....Jesus Christ. Will it take Brian Cowen to personally kick these idiots in the balls before they stop voting for this bunch of cut throats and thieves?

In Donegal, which is Fianna Fail's heartland. Their vote has dropped 60% since the general election. This would suggest they'll only poll in the mid-teens in a nationwide election. That would translate to 20-something seats, and will surely doom them to at least a decade out of power.

Of course 1 in 5 is too many, but it's still a remarkably low result for FF given their history in this constituency.

meglome

murphaph wrote: »

So almost 1 in person in 5 still believes FF is the best bet for this country....Jesus Christ. Will it take Brian Cowen to personally kick these idiots in the balls before they stop voting for this bunch of cut throats and thieves?

I've wondered out loud to my friends that if might take some actual raping of family's. Cause if you still vote for a party after they basically financially destroy your country there really isn't too many more levels you can take it.

bmaxi

murphaph wrote: »

So almost 1 in person in 5 still believes FF is the best bet for this country....Jesus Christ. Will it take Brian Cowen to personally kick these idiots in the balls before they stop voting for this bunch of cut throats and thieves?

What surprises me even more is that 33% think SF have anything to offer. I know this is unlikely to be repeated nationally but people really need to get a handle on things. From what I've read turnout was pathetic too, just over 50%, you'd think people would be chomping at the bit to get at these fcukers.
I suppose the prospect of doing it all again in a couple of months is one explanation but it's no excuse for apathy in these times.

Iwasfrozen

Wow, very good result for Sinn Féin.

Scofflaw

bmaxi wrote: »

What surprises me even more is that 33% think SF have anything to offer. I know this is unlikely to be repeated nationally but people really need to get a handle on things. From what I've read turnout was pathetic too, just over 50%, you'd think people would be chomping at the bit to get at these fcukers.
I suppose the prospect of doing it all again in a couple of months is one explanation but it's no excuse for apathy in these times.

By-elections traditionally go badly for a sitting government party, never mind an unpopular one, and the fact that it was Sinn Fein who actually forced the election into being against Fianna Fáil's reluctance will have played a large part. The drop in FF's support is probably the the people who didn't vote - registering their dissatisfaction by not turning up rather than voting for someone else. If that's so, the effect may not be replicated in a general election.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Fr Tod Umptious

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Wow, very good result for Sinn Féin.

Not surprising though given that they forced the election and it is Donegal.

Will not translate nationally

murphaph

Sinn Fein have nothing to offer in reality. I am sure they have people who mean well, including this Doherty lad, but their policies are poor.

We need a strong, fiscally conservatiev government in power, not more populist BS like we've had until now. FG are not ideal by any stretch but they are offering genuine political reform as a cornerstone of their policies and are about the most fiscally conservative party we have at present.

The political reform bit should not be under estimated. So long as we maintain the political status quo, nothing will change. We have to govern ourselves differently in the future.

Buford T Justice

Scofflaw wrote: »

By-elections traditionally go badly for a sitting government party, never mind an unpopular one, and the fact that it was Sinn Fein who actually forced the election into being against Fianna Fáil's reluctance will have played a large part. The drop in FF's support is probably the the people who didn't vote - registering their dissatisfaction by not turning up rather than voting for someone else. If that's so, the effect may not be replicated in a general election.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Perhaps, but it could also be a good yardstick for the GE next year.
Not in relation to SF, but about the decimation of FF

HarryPotter41

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Wow, very good result for Sinn Féin.

Not really surprising, staunchly republican constituency where Fianna Fail voters feel close to the Sinn Fein form of Republicanism and have no problem switching their vote to them at times like this.

the groutch

with Doherty due to get most of Thomas Pringle's 2nd preferences, he seems to be home & hosed

Liam Byrne

I'm just astonished that approx 20% still voted for FF.

HarryPotter41

Liam Byrne wrote: »

I'm just astonished that approx 20% still voted for FF.

Its called a democratic right, I am astonished people vote Sinn Fein, but such is life.

maynooth_rules

Liam Byrne wrote: »

I'm just astonished that approx 20% still voted for FF.

It is absolutely flabbergasting. Thinking that one in every five people you meet walking down the street would vote for a party that have brought the ultimate shame on a country by bringing the IMF in is an unfunny joke. People still voting for FF ought to take a long hard look at themselves

scr123

Scofflaw wrote: »

By-elections traditionally go badly for a sitting government party, never mind an unpopular one, and the fact that it was Sinn Fein who actually forced the election into being against Fianna Fáil's reluctance will have played a large part. The drop in FF's support is probably the the people who didn't vote - registering their dissatisfaction by not turning up rather than voting for someone else. If that's so, the effect may not be replicated in a general election.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Agreed, and add to that a fair number of those in the 30% or so who as a rule do not vote but who came out to register a protest against the government. I reckon up to 10% of the non voters will turn out in the coming ge though that will be countered by a significant number of FF people who will not vote

murphaph

scr123 wrote: »

Agreed, and add to that a fair number of those in the 30% or so who as a rule do not vote but who came out to register a protest against the government. I reckon up to 10% of the non voters will turn out in the coming ge though that will be countered by a significant number of FF people who will not vote

why won't FF people vote?

sollar

I live in letterkenny and have been talking to people today from the donegal south west area. Its the older generation voting for Fianna Fail simply because they have always voted that way.
Alot of younger people seem to be changing the way they vote but the older ones seem stuck in their old ways.

Poly

murphaph wrote: »

why won't FF people vote?

Because there is no money left to buy votes

gazzer

1 in 5 people voted for FF after everying they have done to this country. What the hell is wrong with people. Those 20% should be the ones who bore the brunt of all the pay cuts and tax hikes to come our way

johngalway

Looks like a done deal for SF.

DrumSteve

tally after 81% opened: SF Doherty 40.1%, FF Ó Domhnaill 21.9%, FG O'Neill 18.3%, IND Pringle 9.9%, LAB McBrearty 9.5%

Good result there for SF...

Iwasfrozen

Judging by these figures SF should have run two candidates.

the groutch

DrumSteve wrote: »

tally after 81% opened: SF Doherty 40.1%, FF Ó Domhnaill 21.9%, FG O'Neill 18.3%, IND Pringle 9.9%, LAB McBrearty 9.5%

Good result there for SF...

bad result for labour, they really need to up their game outside dublin if they want to challenge FG for leadership of the next coalition

dlofnep

It's pretty much a shoe-in at this stage. Congrats to Pearse! A well deserved win.

HarryPotter41

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Judging by these figures SF should have run two candidates.

For one seat?? Right.................

HarryPotter41

the groutch wrote: »

bad result for labour, they really need to up their game outside dublin if they want to challenge FG for leadership of the next coalition

Considering their candidate it was a good result for Labour.

Noreen1

sollar wrote: »

I live in letterkenny and have been talking to people today from the donegal south west area. Its the older generation voting for Fianna Fail simply because they have always voted that way.
Alot of younger people seem to be changing the way they vote but the older ones seem stuck in their old ways.

A fair point. I suspect that a large percentage of the older generation may have voted FF because they believe their pensions will remain untouched.
(Personally, I believe they will endure other cuts - even if the actual base rate remains unchanged)

If you consider that the students were unable to vote, and that many of the younger generation work outside the County, then the true level of support for FF is probably significantly lower than whatever end figure is indicated by the election results......

Noreen

Iwasfrozen

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

For one seat?? Right.................

It's only one seat? Ooops.

the groutch

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Judging by these figures SF should have run two candidates.

they did sorta, Thomas Pringle is an ex-shinner

Sir Oxman

Noreen1 wrote: »

A fair point. I suspect that a large percentage of the older generation may have voted FF because they believe their pensions will remain untouched.
(Personally, I believe they will endure other cuts - even if the actual base rate remains unchanged)

If you consider that the students were unable to vote, and that many of the younger generation work outside the County, then the true level of support for FF is probably significantly lower than whatever end figure is indicated by the election results......

Noreen

I think that's a good point and also something that the people should kick up about in time for the GE - it must be held on a day when the maximum electorate can get to vote, a Saturday maybe.

Sir Oxman

20%+ for FF is a shame on Donegal SW.

Edit: i know it's a huge drop for FF in a 'heartland' constituency but my heart just sinks when I think even at the lowest point the country has ever been dragged to by those criminals, 20% or so Irish people still blindly endorse their gangsterism.

However, great result for SF and well deserved for Doherty, I am very glad McBrearty is almost guranteed to be eliminated first - I hope that's a wake up call for Labour, get your act together lads. No more gob****es like him please.

Laois_Man

Pearse Doherty - Sinn Féin - 39.7%
Brian Ó Domhnaill - Fianna Fáil - 21.2%
Barry O'Neill - Fine Gael - 18.4%
Frank McBrearty - Labour Party - 10.2%
Thomas Pringle - Independent -10.1%
Ann Sweeney - New Island Party - Withdrew

bijapos

Looks like a very big victory for SF. Dire result for FF, Donegal SW is one of their heartlands, hopefully it will be replicated in the GE.

Bad result for FG, they got 23% in 2007, although the strong SF vote that will not be replicated nationwide skewed the result it still shows that FG are failing to pick up former FF votes in big numbers.

Lab won't be happy, although they are up from 2.8% in 2007. Some of this is down to the candidate who was dire and hopefully Labour have some better candidates in the next GE. However I think it shows that the high figures they get in polls will not necessarily transfer into seats at the GE.

gambiaman wrote: »

I think that's a good point and also something that the people should kick up about in time for the GE - it must be held on a day when the maximum electorate can get to vote, a Saturday maybe.

Good point, could be helped by making postal voting open to all and not just a selected few. In Germany it was possible to vote in the town hall up to a week in advance in certain circumstances such as going abroad on holidays. Most European countries have their elections on Sundays which is also a good alternative.

Noreen1

gambiaman wrote: »

20%+ for FF is a shame on Donegal SW.

It would be if all the electorate had the opportunity to vote.

Since so many people were denied the opportunity to voice a protest, then I have to believe that the results do not in any meaningful way represent the true views of the people of Donegal SW.

In fact, I would suggest that there was a surprisingly high voter turnout of those remaining in the County.
Certainly, in my immediate area, at least 60% of the electorate aged between 18-30 were not in a position to vote yesterday, due to college or work commitments.:mad:

Noreen

Laois_Man

bijapos wrote: »

Dire result for FF

I actually think FF will be a bit pleased to be still 2nd in the polls to SF who won't top most other constituency's!

the groutch

Laois_Man wrote: »

I actually think FF will be a bit pleased to be still 2nd in the polls to SF who won't top most other constituency's!

except that this was considered to be a FF stronghold

Sponge Bob

FINAL and complete tally:


PEARSE DOHERTY 39.7%
BRIAN O’DOMHNAILL 21.2%
BARRY O’NEILL 18.4%
FRANK MCBREARTY 10.2%
THOMAS PRINGLE 10.1%


RED C did very well in their poll.



The amazing things are that



a) O Domhnaill beat 20%
b) McBrearty did so badly....self inflicted by waffle and loud bluster though it was.

Laois_Man

Noreen1 wrote: »

It would be if all the electorate had the opportunity to vote.

Since so many people were denied the opportunity to voice a protest, then I have to believe that the results do not in any meaningful way represent the true views of the people of Donegal SW.

In fact, I would suggest that there was a surprisingly high voter turnout of those remaining in the County.
Certainly, in my immediate area, at least 60% of the electorate aged between 18-30 were not in a position to vote yesterday, due to college or work commitments.:mad:

Noreen

The turnout was only 9.42% less than in the 2007 General Election
turnout a lot higher than I expected!

ednwireland

bmaxi wrote: »

What surprises me even more is that 33% think SF have anything to offer. I know this is unlikely to be repeated nationally but people really need to get a handle on things. From what I've read turnout was pathetic too, just over 50%, you'd think people would be chomping at the bit to get at these fcukers.
I suppose the prospect of doing it all again in a couple of months is one explanation but it's no excuse for apathy in these times.

well what alternative is there mcbrearty, really and the FG candidate showed a serious lapse of judgement a few years ago which to me should make him unelectable. or should we just go and vote FF
i'll vote for pearse in a GE, i would vote FG/LAB but not with those candidates

murphaph wrote: »

So almost 1 in person in 5 still believes FF is the best bet for this country....Jesus Christ. Will it take Brian Cowen to personally kick these idiots in the balls before they stop voting for this bunch of cut throats and thieves?

nope what they'd say is sorry for walking onto your foot brian :rolleyes:

Laois_Man wrote: »

The turnout was only 9.42% less than in the 2007 General Election
turnout a lot higher than I expected!

considering the roads were sheet ice yesterday morning as well it was v. difficult to get to some polling stations

Sir Oxman

Noreen1 wrote: »

It would be if all the electorate had the opportunity to vote.

Since so many people were denied the opportunity to voice a protest, then I have to believe that the results do not in any meaningful way represent the true views of the people of Donegal SW.

In fact, I would suggest that there was a surprisingly high voter turnout of those remaining in the County.
Certainly, in my immediate area, at least 60% of the electorate aged between 18-30 were not in a position to vote yesterday, due to college or work commitments.:mad:

Noreen

I feel your pain Noreen - I'd say the same about any other constituency believe me.
Despite the disappointment of 20% for the criminals, the fact 80% voted against them is some positivity.:)

I take your point previously about the pensions protected lark FF are up to in their '4 year plan' - it's more a 4 year FF-get-back-into-govt plan.
FF absolutely disgust me.

Dempo1

whatawaster wrote: »

Earliest tallies according to Newstalk, with 14% of boxes opened:

Sinn Fein 33%
Fine Gael 26%
Fianna Fail 16%
Labour 10%


Disaster for FF if true. Poor result for Labour (though not surprising given their candidate).

Decent showing from FG.

Democracy is a wonderful thing but it beggers belief 22% of the electoriate voted for FF? Bizzare to say the least.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

wolfpawnat

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

Its called a democratic right, I am astonished people vote Sinn Fein, but such is life.

But it was SF that brought it to court! People are glad they are finally have a voice again.

This stigma against SF is unreal! I really cannot understand it!?!

meglome

wolfpawnat wrote: »

But it was SF that brought it to court! People are glad they are finally have a voice again.

This stigma against SF is unreal! I really cannot understand it!?!

As someone who grew up in a working class area of Dublin I'm not anti-Sinn Fein as such. However their economic policy's are rubbish and their pretence of being pro-EU is pretty annoying. So while I know they can do good at local level I wouldn't dream of wanting them in government.