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General Election Thread - Mod Note - please read post #1 before posting

  • 23-11-2010 3:19pm
    #1
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 78,393 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭


    Clearly a General Election is now expected to be called for the New Year, although an earlier one cannot be ruled out.

    While we are happy for local election issues to be discussed here, there are a number of conditions (in addition to all our normal rules):

    1. Stick to this thread – if there is something significant enough to warrant separate discussion, PM the Mods – we can separate out relevant posts if appropriate.
    2. Local issues only – national issues can be discussed in the Politics forum.
    3. Do not use this as an opportunity to resurrect topics where previous threads have been closed.
    4. No electioneering – this is not a forum for simply promoting individual candidates or parties, or having a go at those you do not like.

    Anyone who contravenes these rules may be asked to refrain from posting in this thread again and also subject to infractions/forum bans.

    Thanks

    Beasty


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,256 ✭✭✭LeoB


    This could be good:)

    Each town and village will have its issues.

    I suppose mine for Rush would be a bit more policing. I think the local Gardái are good but need more back up.

    I would like to see Fingal put more into helping Tidy towns and forget about this Bio diversity stuff that had some nice esttes looking like jungles. If we had our villages and towns looking a little better it might give us all a lift at this time.

    Well some one had to get ball rolling


  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 78,393 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    LeoB wrote: »
    .

    I suppose mine for Rush would be a bit more policing. I think the local Gardái are good but need more back up.
    I guess it's going to be more a case of trying to protect what we have in the current climate - I can't see any area of public spending (other than possibly Fas/training, given IMF comments) where additional resources will be made available, which means we will, as a minimum, have to lose services to fund any increase in a particular area.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,871 ✭✭✭Corsendonk


    LeoB wrote: »
    This could be good:)

    Each town and village will have its issues.

    I suppose mine for Rush would be a bit more policing. I think the local Gardái are good but need more back up.

    I would like to see Fingal put more into helping Tidy towns and forget about this Bio diversity stuff that had some nice esttes looking like jungles. If we had our villages and towns looking a little better it might give us all a lift at this time.

    Well some one had to get ball rolling

    First of all some of your issues are for councillors to consider not a TD or your MEP as the Bio-diversity project comes from Europe. When you change agriculture practice and allow housing estates to be built in wildlife barrier areas you have to improve the use of the green spaces left for bio-diversity or you end up reducing diversity of wildlife in the area, resulting with the true urban survivors of rats and foxes dominating, as they have no competitors or predators left except man.

    As said before the Tidys Town has moved on from the days of having hanging baskets on all the shops, grass cut like an english bowling green, no litter on the ground in sight, its now includes the built environment and a green emphasis on wildlife and energy efficiency iniatives within the local area. So getting the council to cut the grass using fossil fuels and applying pesticides to the grass doesn't look good. You should read up about some of the pesticides applied to grass or landscape plants, some very nasty stuff including a chemical that was more commonily know as Agent Orange, which was applied to the Vietnam Jungles by the US to defoliant plants.

    Well I will be steering clear of local politics, leave that for the council elections, the national interest in the 2nd Republic comes before local politics.

    The cute hoor local politics of the Lowrys and Healy Raes got us partly into the mess we are in, FF ministers trying to decentralise whole government departments to their local constituencies, TDs obsession to have a hospital in each county, the list goes on and on. That kind of non joined up thinking helped waste money in the good times and give jobs to the good old boys in the constituencies. So expecting more of the same is heading down the same road again which we can't afford with 4 years of austerity budgets.

    Even the present By-election candidates in Donegal could only talk about what they could get or hold for Donegal, not what they could do for their country in its state of need. Greed got us into this mess and greed and hoarding won't get us out. So I will be voting for a candidate in Dublin North based on the national policies of the party they represent to pull this nation out of the quagmire it is in, rather than what they can do locally or who they are related too or if they favour my political leanings.

    So thats my first and last post in this thread. Enjoy the election all, you never know you might get alot more practice in the coming year if people put local before the national interest!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,759 ✭✭✭The Rooster


    Red C Poll prediction - November 2010:

    Dublin N
    FF 13%
    FG 22% (1)
    LP 31% (2)
    GP 11.5% (1)
    SP 10.6%
    SF 6%

    FF to lose 2 seats here, each to LP, who have an ample supply of councillors in Fingal. Sargant, on these figures, manages to hold on, staying ahead of FF1 on FF2 leakage, and then depending on FF transfers to stay ahead of SP’s Clare Daly. Very very close though, so I’d not be putting the house on anyone on the basis of this…. The metro North issue in particular could see FF being more resilient to the Gilmore Gale in Swords

    http://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2010/11/22/redc-nov-2010-projections/


    Personally I think Reilly (FG), Ryan (Lab) and Daly (SP) will get the first 3 seats. Not sure about the final seat.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,844 ✭✭✭Jimdagym


    Unlike the rooster, I Trever Sargeant keeping his seat with a relative comfort. James Reilly to top the poll, Sargeant in second. Ryan and Kennedy to take the last 2. I know FF will take a beating, but Kennedy is hugely popular, and comfortably topped the poll in 07. I don't think he will have lost enough not to scrape through.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,819 ✭✭✭dan_d


    Have to agree with Jim, I think James Reilly will do very well.Can't wait til they start banging on my front door:mad:...I've a lot to say to them!!!!
    For me? Transport, transport, transport. But then I've been shouting about that for years and nothing has changed (sigh).
    All my other opinions are national issues, so I'll keep them to myself!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,528 ✭✭✭dcr22B


    Might I just add (and I'm not a Fianna Fáiler), Michael Kennedy has done some very good work in trying to bring IR to task over the disgraceful neglect of the Northern Commuter line but having read one of Dick Fearn's condescending responses to a query from Mr Kennedy, I'd be surprised if IR ever take into account the needs of their customers.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 762 ✭✭✭SeaSide


    Are we not a five seater this time around?

    Red C Poll prediction - November 2010:

    Dublin N
    FF 13%
    FG 22% (1)
    LP 31% (2)
    GP 11.5% (1)
    SP 10.6%
    SF 6%

    FF to lose 2 seats here, each to LP, who have an ample supply of councillors in Fingal. Sargant, on these figures, manages to hold on, staying ahead of FF1 on FF2 leakage, and then depending on FF transfers to stay ahead of SP’s Clare Daly. Very very close though, so I’d not be putting the house on anyone on the basis of this…. The metro North issue in particular could see FF being more resilient to the Gilmore Gale in Swords

    http://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2010/11/22/redc-nov-2010-projections/


    Personally I think Reilly (FG), Ryan (Lab) and Daly (SP) will get the first 3 seats. Not sure about the final seat.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,256 ✭✭✭LeoB


    The one who I have been most impressed with from this area is Darragh O'Brien. Found his excellent to deal with. I have met them all over the last 2 years and I think this time around the only change will be Brendan Ryan to replace Trevor Sargent.

    Suprise Suprise, I think Corsendonk makes a very valid point above re the Hospital in every county, this crap must stop. There has been huge problem with cute hoor local politics, take a drive to Westport from Dublin and you have top class road, all the way, well nearly ya know the place the pet food factory the good road stops just beyond it. They are actually starting work on it att present I think. but this points at what has gone on.

    How will we ever change it? All party Goverment? Bring in experts to Run departments?

    Its a sad state of affairs when Lowrey and Healy-Rea wield so much power. I do however think there are some good T.Ds but we need a serious clearout.But we will probably vote a good few back in bacause he fixed the pothole or something silly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,256 ✭✭✭LeoB


    Just looking at this again and I think F.F will do ok out here. I actually think they could hold onto 2 seats as we have 2 decent candidates in Michael Kennedy and Darragh O Brien. I also think James Reilly and Brendan Ryan will be elected.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,943 ✭✭✭Tropheus


    I can't see FF hold onto two seats. There couldn't be that many gob$hites in NCD?? They will struggle to hold onto one seat and I would tip O'Brien to win it over Kennedy. I've never voted FF, but O'Brien has impressed on local issues and in the media. From a Donabate/Portrane perspective, Kennedy has been invisible.


  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 78,393 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    ksimpson wrote: »
    I can't see FF hold onto two seats. There couldn't be that many gob$hites in NCD??
    See point 4 in post #1

    ksimpson barred from posting in this thread again

    Beasty


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,256 ✭✭✭LeoB


    ksimpson wrote: »
    I can't see FF hold onto two seats. There couldn't be that many gob$hites in NCD?? They will struggle to hold onto one seat and I would tip O'Brien to win it over Kennedy. I've never voted FF, but O'Brien has impressed on local issues and in the media. From a Donabate/Portrane perspective, Kennedy has been invisible.

    But we have not got away from the parish pump politics and as this goes on and Enda Kenny stuns us and the Greens lose more credability by the day I can see them (Fianna Fail) hold on to their 2 seats.

    What does appear to be happening is most constituencies are carved up between people from the same party and maybe this is why you dont see Michael Kennedy. Darragh O'Brien on the other hand has a brother a Councillor and between them they seem to get a good bit done. Again I think we need a serious clearout of current T.Ds from all the parties as I believe this is the only way we can have any serious political and electorial reform.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,269 ✭✭✭cathy01


    I absolutly love Trevor, I dont like James Reilly at all.I found he patronising to me, when looking for a OT, a few years back.
    I hope Trevor gets in, I can tell you he never ever stops working.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,485 ✭✭✭✭Khannie


    cathy01 wrote: »
    I hope Trevor gets in, I can tell you he never ever stops working.

    In all my life I have only had one issue serious enough to contact a TD about and I went to Sargent. He just couldn't have cared less. I will never vote for him again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,062 ✭✭✭Uriel.


    I am looking forward to seeing how James Reilly gets on as the Health Minister (if he gets it). I think he has some really good ideas about reforming the health system in Ireland and he would be one of the few Minister's to actually have a relevant background in his Ministerial position.

    Other than him I don't really know about the other candidates. Clare Daly is definitely off my list... can't stand her politics. Trevor Sargent is off the list too.

    I'm not liking Fianna Fail these days (join the queue..right?) but I will admit that Michael Kennedy is a fantastic local representative. He's a great communicator and good at pushing local agendas. He has also helped out my family in the past year (and put some great effort into helping too). That of course is the inherent problem in Irish politics electing people to supposedly do things in the best interests as the nation, on the basis of their local commitments... but that's an argument for another day.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 369 ✭✭clunked


    As a resident of a Pyrite infested estate in Dublin North, I will definitely remember the way that Trevor stood up for the residents when 'Straightjacket' Gormely washed his hand of the issue:mad:.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,430 ✭✭✭Sizzler


    I think voters this time should take a step back from local issues somewhat and look at the bigger picture.

    Voting for someone from the labour party or fianna fail because thay re great lads in the local area is not going to sort out the countries problems imho.


  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 78,393 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    Sizzler wrote: »
    I think voters this time should take a step back from local issues somewhat and look at the bigger picture.
    Which is fine, but this thread is to discuss local issues, not national ones.

    Thanks

    Beasty


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,256 ✭✭✭LeoB


    Khannie wrote: »
    In all my life I have only had one issue serious enough to contact a TD about and I went to Sargent. He just couldn't have cared less. I will never vote for him again.
    If Trendy Trevor was the only candidate running I would spoil my vote.
    Uriel. wrote: »
    I think he has some really good ideas about reforming the health system in Ireland and he would be one of the few Minister's to actually have a relevant background in his Ministerial position.

    Other than him I don't really know about the other candidates. Clare Daly is definitely off my list... can't stand her politics. Trevor Sargent is off the list too.

    I'm not liking Fianna Fail these days (join the queue..right?) but I will admit that Michael Kennedy is a fantastic local representative. He's a great communicator and good at pushing local agendas. He has also helped out my family in the past year (and put some great effort into helping too). That of course is the inherent problem in Irish politics electing people to supposedly do things in the best interests as the nation, on the basis of their local commitments... but that's an argument for another day.

    Will James Reilly be let reform the health service? I think not. The surgeons have to much power and he might well not get the support from his collegues like Leo Veradker.
    clunked wrote: »
    As a resident of a Pyrite infested estate in Dublin North, I will definitely remember the way that Trevor stood up for the residents when 'Straightjacket' Gormely washed his hand of the issue:mad:.

    I email him a few times and was disgusted with his response on each occasion.
    Sizzler wrote: »
    I think voters this time should take a step back from local issues somewhat and look at the bigger picture.

    Voting for someone from the labour party or fianna fail because thay re great lads in the local area is not going to sort out the countries problems imho.

    Are the opposition any better? I think we would struggle to 40 T.Ds who should be kept from all the parties in there and in fairness to D.C.Ns 3 of ours I would keep, Darragh O'Brien and Kennedy of F.F and Reilly of F.G. Overall I think there are some good people on all side of Irish politics but untill we have serious reform I dont see major changes. Do Turkeys vote for Christmas?

    What would or should we priortise as our main needs for D.C.N? Ant then ask is the will there to get the jobs done.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,062 ✭✭✭Uriel.


    LeoB wrote: »
    Will James Reilly be let reform the health service? I think not. The surgeons have to much power and he might well not get the support from his collegues like Leo Veradker.

    I guess it remains to be seen. But I do hope he can make some sort of major strategic difference. Time will tell I guess. As Deputy Leader of the party I would hope he has some influence within the party.

    We'll know in the next few years.

    Anyone know what Reilly is like in terms of local politics/influence etc...?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,256 ✭✭✭LeoB


    Uriel. wrote: »
    I guess it remains to be seen. But I do hope he can make some sort of major strategic difference. Time will tell I guess. As Deputy Leader of the party I would hope he has some influence within the party.

    We'll know in the next few years.

    Anyone know what Reilly is like in terms of local politics/influence etc...?

    Reilly is a fair man to talk anyway. I found him ok the few times I met him.

    He could actually be a good leader of Fine Gael. Enda Kenny, Richard Bruton just seem to me to be very borring farts, dry and dont come accross very well. Reilly on the other hand looks like he could bring people along with him. So if he was elected leader of the party I think he could be more successful than Enda Kenny. That would be good for F.G in Dublin and especially in D.C.N as he could revive the party somewhat. Never see much of Nora Owen out this way. Only met her once back a few years (15) ago.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,269 ✭✭✭cathy01


    I dont like Reilly, because , one night , I sat in my sitting room crying because I had recieved a letter saying there is no OT, Occupational therapist for children in NCD with ASD . It just so happened he knocked on my door.I asked him in , showed him the letter and asked if there is anything he could do.He explained his own child had Autism and sure ,in his opinion Children with Autism dont really need it.
    For me that was enough, never again.Id never vote for him.By the way, we are still waiting four years for an OT appointment.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,062 ✭✭✭Uriel.


    cathy01 wrote: »
    I dont like Reilly, because , one night , I sat in my sitting room crying because I had recieved a letter saying there is no OT, Occupational therapist for children in NCD with ASD . It just so happened he knocked on my door.I asked him in , showed him the letter and asked if there is anything he could do.He explained his own child had Autism and sure ,in his opinion Children with Autism dont really need it.
    For me that was enough, never again.Id never vote for him.By the way, we are still waiting four years for an OT appointment.

    That's a shocking wait for an OT appointment, it really is.

    As a matter of interest, did Reilly give you a rationale for his opinion? I'd be interested to hear it, considering he is a medical professional and also has the personal knowledge of having an autistic child.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,269 ✭✭✭cathy01


    I think that was his rational, hes a medical doctor, so even though he NEVER meet my daughter or me before, he thought it ok to let me know , sure she doesnt really need it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,062 ✭✭✭Uriel.


    cathy01 wrote: »
    I think that was his rational, hes a medical doctor, so even though he NEVER meet my daughter or me before, he thought it ok to let me know , sure she doesnt really need it.

    Very strange move on his part...

    Have you tried some of the other TDs. I really have found that Michael Kennedy has been a trojan worker for the locale (be it big issues or personal issues). I am not sure if he can help you in your specific circumstances but It really wouldn't do any harm to find out. With an election coming around the corner, TDs and potential candidates will (or should) fall over themselves to try help constituents in order to secure votes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 865 ✭✭✭Unshelved


    Reilly was head of the Irish Medical Organisation and negotiated the colossal pay increases for consultants and surgeons - resulting in them now earning 2-3 times that their British counterparts earn - so I don't think that he's going to be on the side of patients and a fairer health service for all. Like a lot of medics he comes across as arrogant and a know-all. Plus I can't stand the way he says "it beggars belief" in every interview he does. Get a different catchphrase! I don't like the fact that he doesn't live in the constituency - so he's not getting a vote from me (not that it'll make any difference - he'll romp home probably).

    Kennedy may be an effective politician, but I was digusted when, at the pensioners' protests, he blamed the withdrawal of their medical cards on the fact that "single parents with 10 kids get free houses". This is not my blog but I did witness him saying it -
    http://redmum.blogspot.com/2008/10/calling-all-single-parents-in-dublin.html

    Impressed with Darragh O'Brien - he seems sincere enough, and could be one of those FF politicians that might finally break the mould. Will he be running in DN next time? I seem to remember that the constituency would be broken up in some way that would leave him to another one.

    Have always give Sargent my vote but was disappointed in his not taking a ministerial seat in the last cabinet. Maybe it was a matter of principle, but he should have made this clear to voters before the election. I'll still probably vote for him again.

    I know Brendan Ryan and would be happy to vote for him - if he gets the nod from the convention. Voted for Daly last time too, but friends of mine who were at the 2007 count in Portmarnock were very unimpressed by her and her cohort's behaviour there. Would hesitate to give her my vote again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 128 ✭✭Spidermany


    Unshelved wrote: »
    I don't like the fact that he doesn't live in the constituency - so he's not getting a vote from me (not that it'll make any difference - he'll romp home probably).

    I thought James Reilly lives in Rush? He claims to anyway.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 128 ✭✭Spidermany


    cathy01 wrote: »
    By the way, we are still waiting four years for an OT appointment.

    Cathy01, are you registered with the Mater CAHMS in Swords? We had to wait 2 years for an assessment, but it's an integrated service with OT, S&LT and psychologists, which means you don't run all around the place and they co-ordinate the appointments so the child isn't overloaded.

    That's a local issue I want sorted - an expansion of this scheme.

    Sorry for the off post bit, I only realised after I had posted.


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  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 78,393 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    May I remind posters to debate the issues, and avoid electioneering

    Saying a particular candidate get's my vote, or I don't like so & so is not what this thread is about.

    In addition, if you have personal experience to back up your claims, then it's fine to share it (within the general posting rules), but could posters please avoid then asking for more details of individual examples - we are here to discuss the wider issues, and not individual grievances

    Thanks

    Beasty


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 128 ✭✭Spidermany


    Am I right in saying that the boundaries of the Dublin North Constituency may have changed since the last election, but we will still have 4 TDs?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 128 ✭✭Spidermany


    I would not commence Metro North, but I think the DART should be extended to Balbriggan which I think is the extent of the County Dublin train stations.

    There are a lot of commuters in the towns along this route, and yet again due to the vagaries of the weather we cannot rely on Dublin Bus past Swords.

    I do think it's ridiculous that Dublin's airport doesn't have a rail link, but I think more people would benefit from an extended dart.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,062 ✭✭✭Uriel.


    Spidermany wrote: »
    I would not commence Metro North, but I think the DART should be extended to Balbriggan which I think is the extent of the County Dublin train stations.

    There are a lot of commuters in the towns along this route, and yet again due to the vagaries of the weather we cannot rely on Dublin Bus past Swords.

    I do think it's ridiculous that Dublin's airport doesn't have a rail link, but I think more people would benefit from an extended dart.

    I have to disagree with you on this one (maybe that's because I live in Swords) :-) I think MN would be a much greater asset and priority over an extension of the dart line. MN takes in a much larger catxhment area and would be the first rapid transport opened up to bog areas like ballymun, swords and the airport.

    I don't disagree that the dart line should be extended but I believe MN takes priority.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 128 ✭✭Spidermany


    My arguments are:
    1. It would be cheaper to extend the DART.
    2. The bus service to the areas you mentioned is a reasonable service, with alternative routes I believe.
    3. I live in Rush
    Obviously, by far the most compelling reason would be number 3.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,871 ✭✭✭Corsendonk


    Spidermany wrote: »
    Am I right in saying that the boundaries of the Dublin North Constituency may have changed since the last election, but we will still have 4 TDs?

    Ok I broke my golden rule about posting again in this thread :pac: Yes we have 4 seats in the next election and some important boundary changes to the south of the constituency. Some Swords and Portmarnock voters might be shocked to find they are no longer in Dublin North. The below post was in 2009 on Politics.ie so some has changed but I think the poster did a pretty good job of analysis. It does shed some light on the Socialist Party interest in Donabate/Portrane and Rush in the last couple of years.

    Politics.ie 2009
    Two of the most interesting constituencies next time are Dublin North and North-East because of the boundary changes. The Boundary Commission really made some significant changes here which in the light of recent opinion poll and local election trends suggest they may not run with conventional wisdom. Dublin North loses 22k of population to DNE and DW. The Portmarnock area pop. 9200 moves to DNE and a chunk of Swords pop. 11700goes to West. A further circa 2800 goes from DNE to NC. Who are the winners and losers?

    In terms of DNE, losing some city vote to NC and gaining a large middle-class block of vote, would appear to be curtains for Larry O'Toole and SF. Especially in light of the local elections. Will Labour run Peter Coyle as a 2nd candidate as he represents the Portmarnock/Howth area as a Cllr and is a really strong votegetter in the Portmarnock area? Michael Woods is retiring and they do not seem to have a ready made replacement in the constituency. A Peter Coyle/Tommy Broughan division of the constituency could potentially deliver 2 seats at FF's expense especially as Dublin 3 seaters are just going to kill FF at the next GE. Terrence Flanagan seems a certainty for FG but I just cannot see FG carving out the possibility of a second seat here if Coyle runs for Labour. If the election were held tomorrow I would call it 2 LAB 1 FG if Labour run Coyle. Labour HQ must be thinking this way?

    Dublin North is a bit more tricky. The loss of voters from the Swords and Portmarnock areas will hit both sitting FF TD's. But will FF just run with their two incumbents who are now fishing out of a smaller pool of vote in the Southern end of the constituency? I think not. I think they will have to find a candidate for the Northern end but they do not have even a Cllr in Balbriggan! They may have to turn to Jim Glennon to run. For FG and Labour the maths are simple - run a Swords/Malahide candidate along with a Northern candidate. For FG that means running a Malahide candidate (our very own Fingal MCC most likely) along with O'Reilly and for Labour it means running a Swords candidate with Ryan. The new Dublin North is very mixed for the other contenders. Claire Daly will not miss Portmarnock but she will miss the Swords area gone to West. Trevor Sargent will lament the loss of middle-class vote but his Northern base is in tact.

    In short FF will have to run 3 candidates for 1 seat. Pick the winner from that yourself. I think that Trevor and Claire may now lose out. Trevor because of the weakness in the Green vote and Claire because of the loss of a significant chunk of her Swords base. There are 3 seats between FG/LAB but who will get the majority? My guess is that FG are best placed for 2 as the rural part of the constituency is intact and I think that Brendan Ryan is actually a pretty weak candidate. As of today I call 2 FG 1 LAB 1 FF.


    Map of changes
    http://www.constituency-commission.ie/Images/map_c.jpg

    Zoom feature on the link is pretty poor, if I find a better map I will post up.

    Posters in the south of the constituency may want to review the map before posting as you might not have a option to vote in Dublin North.:eek:


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,871 ✭✭✭Corsendonk


    List of Members Interests of Current North Dublin TDs.


    FYI- REGISTER OF INTERESTS OF MEMBERS OF DÁIL ÉIREANN PURSUANT TO SECTION 6 OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACTS IN RESPECT OF THE REGISTRATION PERIOD 1 JANUARY, 2009 TO 31 DECEMBER, 2009.

    Reg of Dail Members Interests 2009.
    O'BRIEN, Darragh (Dublin North)
    1. Occupational Income …….. Nil

    2. Shares ……………………..
    Investment Bond: Friends First L.A.C., Cherrywood Business Park, Loughlinstown, Co. Dublin: life assurance company.

    3. Directorships……………… Nil

    4. Land ………………………
    11 Castleheath, Malahide, Co. Dublin, apartment: rental property.

    5. Gifts ……………………… Nil

    6. Property and Service …….. Nil

    7. Travel Facilities ………….. Nil

    8. Remunerated Position ……. Nil

    9. Contracts …………………. Nil

    SARGENT, Trevor (Dublin North)
    1. Occupational Income …….. Faic

    2. Shares …………………….. Faic

    3. Directorships……………… Faic

    4. Land ……………………… Faic

    5. Gifts ……………………… Faic

    6. Property and Service …….. Faic

    7. Travel Facilities ………….. Faic

    8. Remunerated Position ……. Faic

    9. Contracts …………………. Faic

    faic= nothing

    KENNEDY, Michael (Dublin North)
    1. Occupational Income ……..
    Insurance Broker: Lordan Magnier Insurances Ltd., The Plaza, Swords, Co. Dublin.

    2. Shares …………………….. Nil

    3. Directorships……………… Executive Director: (1) Lordan Magnier Insurances Ltd.: insurance brokers; (2) Lordan Magnier & Partners Ltd., The Plaza, Swords, Co. Dublin: insurance brokers.

    4. Land ……………………… (1) Drumbawn, Newtownmountkennedy, Co. Wicklow, 50 acres farmland plus 2 houses on land: 1 house used as holiday home, one is vacant, land rented out;
    (2) Apartment, 25 Balmoral Place, Brewery Wharf, 2 Bowman Lane, Leeds LS10 1HQ: rented out.

    5. Gifts ……………………… Nil

    6. Property and Service …….. Nil

    7. Travel Facilities ………….. Nil

    8. Remunerated Position ……. Nil

    9. Contracts …………………. Nil


    REILLY, Dr. James (Dublin North)
    1. Occupational Income …….. (1) Medical doctor: Fingal Clinic, The Square, Lusk, Co. Dublin; (2) Landlord: Lusk Town Centre and Surgery, Lusk, Co. Dublin.

    2. Shares …………………….. Nil

    3. Directorships……………… Lusk Property Investments Limited: Century House, Harolds X Rd., Dublin 6W: property management and leasing company.

    4. Land ……………………… (1) ½ acre Cock Hill, Stamullen, Co. Meath: site; (2) Derelict ruin on ¼ acre, Balrothery, Co. Dublin: site - derelict - no planning permission; (3) Commercial building, Lusk Town Centre, Lusk: comprising surgery, treatment rooms, consulting rooms, offices, pharmacy, supermarket, bookmakers, barbers, restaurant, apartments & 3 sites for town houses & vacant floor: surgery & associated rooms used for my medical practice, the other buildings leased to tenants, apartment for my own use; (4) Former family farm, Baldrummond, Lusk, Co. Dublin, 86 acres - let for tillage; (5) Holiday home, Doonbeg No. 32, The Courtyard: investment; (6) House, Seafoam, Rush, Co. Dublin on .7 acre: residence; (7) Green Hills Nursing Home, Carrick on Suir, Tipperary, ¼ share: care of the elderly; (8) Commercial site on one third share of 1.3 acres at Nevinstown, Swords, Co. Dublin: proposed "one stop shop" medical centre; (9) Land at Loughton, Moneygall, Co. Offaly 150 acres: farming & woodland; (10) Golf club membership at Doonbeg G.C., Co. Clare: golf and leisure.

    5. Gifts ……………………… Nil

    6. Property and Service …….. Nil

    7. Travel Facilities ………….. Nil

    8. Remunerated Position ……. Nil

    9. Contracts …………………. Mother & Child Scheme, Vaccination Scheme, Heartwatch, GMS Schemes: HSE, St. Patrick Dunne's Hospital, Dublin 2: Minister for Health.

    Other Information Provided: Normal contracts associated with a GP's practice.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 128 ✭✭Spidermany


    Corsendonk - two very interesting posts - thank you


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,871 ✭✭✭Corsendonk


    Public Standard Allowance(PSA) Claimed- ok if cost and service provided by your local TD is a factor who you vote for, the expenses claims below from March 10 to date might be of interest. It seems that their all are consistent with expenses even when the Dail is on holidays!! We have two travel and accomodation bands Dublin and 1 and the PSA is a calculation of TAA and the Public Representative Allowance. Michael Kennedy seems value for money as he has to travel both North and South of the constituency on the lowest expenses claimed.

    Source:Oireachtas.ie
    TRAVEL AND ACCOMMODATION ALLOWANCE (TAA)
    This allowance covers the costs of travel to and from Leinster House, accommodation where applicable and, for Deputies only, constituency travel. The allowance is based on the Dublin band and twelve bands of 30km depending on the distance from Leinster House with a fixed accommodation allowance. Each Member is paid a band allowance based on the distance from their declared normal place of residence to Leinster House.

    Source:http://www.oireachtas.ie/ViewDoc.asp?DocId=-1&CatID=169&m=m
    Darragh O'Brien
    PRA TAA Band Date of Payment Amount
    Vouched Dublin 31/03/2010 3,141.67
    Vouched Dublin 30/04/2010 3,141.67
    Vouched Dublin 27/05/2010 3,141.67
    Vouched Dublin 25/06/2010 3,141.67
    Vouched Dublin 30/07/2010 3,141.67
    Vouched Dublin 27/08/2010 3,141.67
    Vouched Dublin 24/09/2010 3,141.67
    Vouched Dublin 29/10/2010 3,141.67

    Trevor Sargent
    PRA TAA Band Date of Payment Amount
    Vouched 1 31/03/2010 4,483.84
    Vouched 1 30/04/2010 4,483.84
    Vouched 1 27/05/2010 4,483.84
    Vouched 1 25/06/2010 4,483.84
    Vouched 1 30/07/2010 4,483.84
    Vouched 1 27/08/2010 4,483.84
    Vouched 1 24/09/2010 4,483.84
    Vouched 1 29/10/2010 4,483.84


    Michael Kennedy
    PRA TAA Band Date of Payment Amount
    Unvouched Dublin 31/03/2010 2,250.00
    Unvouched Dublin 30/04/2010 2,250.00
    Unvouched Dublin 27/05/2010 2,250.00
    Unvouched Dublin 25/06/2010 2,250.00
    Unvouched Dublin 30/07/2010 2,250.00
    Unvouched Dublin 27/08/2010 2,250.00
    Unvouched Dublin 24/09/2010 2,250.00
    Unvouched Dublin 29/10/2010 2,250.00

    James Reilly
    PRA TAA Band Date of Payment Amount
    Vouched 1 31/03/2010 4,483.84
    Vouched 1 30/04/2010 4,483.84
    Vouched 1 27/05/2010 4,483.84
    Vouched 1 25/06/2010 4,483.84
    Vouched 1 30/07/2010 4,483.84
    Vouched 1 27/08/2010 4,483.84
    Vouched 1 23/09/2010 4,483.84
    Vouched 1 29/10/2010 4,483.84

    TDs PRA
    VOUCHED ALLOWANCE: €25,700 MAXIMUM ANNUAL AMOUNT

    Where evidence in the form of vouchers or receipts is available to show that the expenses were incurred (held for five years as subject to audit)

    UNVOUCHED ALLOWANCE: €15,000 MINIMUM ANNUAL AMOUNT

    This amount is certified by Members as expended in accordance with the regulations.

    Purposes of Allowance
    1. Rent, rates and other such charges in relation to an office or offices,
    2. Utilities of an office or offices (e.g. electricity and gas bills),
    3. Improvements to office accommodation,
    4. Signage in respect of the constituency office,
    5. Purchase or maintenance of office furniture or equipment,
    6. Purchase of stationery,
    7. Insurance including for office accommodation or equipment and public liability insurance,
    8. Cleaning of office accommodation,
    9. Telephone calls, otherwise than from Leinster House, including line rental and mobile phone calls, relating to the performance of his/her duties as a Member,
    10. Web hosting and other related computer costs,
    11. Hiring rooms for clinics or other meetings relating to the performance of his or her duties as a Member of the Oireachtas,
    12. Leaflet and newsletter distribution,
    13. Advertising relating to the performance of his or her duties as a Member,
    14. Attendance at conferences relating to the performance of his or her duties as a Member (except expenses relating to travel).

    Brendan Ryan Senator
    PRA TAA Band Date of Payment Amount
    Vouched 1 31/03/2010 3,175.50
    Vouched 1 30/04/2010 3,175.50
    Vouched 1 27/05/2010 3,175.50
    Vouched 1 25/06/2010 3,175.50
    Vouched 1 30/07/2010 3,175.50
    Vouched 1 27/08/2010 3,175.50
    Vouched 1 23/09/2010 3,175.50
    Vouched 1 29/10/2010 3,175.50


    Source: Oireachtas.ie
    PUBLIC REPRESENTATION ALLOWANCE
    SENATORS


    Members select either a vouched or unvouched allowance option at the start of the year.

    Unused amounts will be refunded by end of February 2011.
    Applications for additional amounts will be submitted by end of January 2011
    VOUCHED ALLOWANCE: €15,000 MAXIMUM ANNUAL AMOUNT

    Where evidence in the form of vouchers or receipts is available to show that the expenses were incurred (held for five years as subject to audit)

    UNVOUCHED ALLOWANCE: €9,250 MINIMUM ANNUAL AMOUNT

    This amount is certified by Members as expended in accordance with the regulations.

    Purposes of Allowance
    1. Telephone calls, otherwise than from Leinster House, including line rental and mobile phone calls, relating to the performance of his/her duties as a Member,
    2. Web hosting and other related computer costs,
    3. Leaflet and newsletter distribution,
    4. Advertising relating to the performance of his or her duties as a Member,
    5. Hiring rooms for meetings relating to the performance of his or her duties as a Member and
    6. Attendance at conferences relating to the performance of his or her duties as a Member (except expenses relating to travel).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,256 ✭✭✭LeoB


    Corsendonk. Great work. This is good stuff to have out in hte public domain.

    2 Questions if I may,
    Why are the figures all the same for each T.D?
    Why would you think Michael Kennedy has lowest expenses?

    Thanks again. Did you ever consider....... Eh challenging one of these T.Ds? for a seat that is!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,871 ✭✭✭Corsendonk


    LeoB wrote: »
    2 Questions if I may,
    Why are the figures all the same for each T.D?
    Why would you think Michael Kennedy has lowest expenses?
    I will answer your last question first. As explained the Public Service Allowance or expenses is made up of two parts, the Travel and Accomodation Allowance(TAA) and Public Representation Allowance(PRA)

    TAA
    Michael Kennedy like Darragh O'Brien comes under the Dublin Band which has an upper Travel and Accomodation Allowance of €8,400. While Sargent and Reilly have a serious advantage with a TAA of €24,457. A serious unfair advantage for TDs in the same constituency representing voters from all parts in my opinion but every system has its advantages and disadvantages. Thats one factor that his expenses are lower.


    Band Number Distance Office Holders Annual

    Dublin Less than 25km €8,400

    1 25km or more but less than 60km €24,457

    2 60km or more but less than 90km €27,150

    3 90km or more but less than 120km €28,950

    4 120km or more but less than 150km €30,289

    5 150km or more but less than 180km €30,750

    6 180km or more but less than 210km €31,196

    7 210km or more but less than 240km €31,643

    8 240km or more but less than 270km €32,550

    9 270km or more but less than 300km €33,443

    10 300km or more but less than 330km €34,350

    11 330km or more but less than 360km €35,257

    12 360km or more €36,150

    Oireachtas.ie
    Verification and Certification for Payment for TAA
    Payment of this allowance is verified by attendance at Leinster House. Members must attend a minimum of 120 days annually to receive full payment. The 120 days can be registered on any day that Leinster House is open to attend and is not specific to the sittings of the House.

    Where attendance is below this, Members will refund 1% of the travel and accommodation allowance payable for each day below 120 days. For 2010 the attendance requirement is 100 days attendances as the scheme started on 1st March.

    Members must certify within one month of the end of the year that the amount paid to them was used for expenses allowed under the regulations. Members have two months from the end of the year in which to make refunds


    SYSTEM FOR RECORDING ATTENDANCE

    Members may record their attendance in Leinster House using an electronic system for recording attendance in order to register the attendance for the payment of the travel and accommodation allowances. In addition, a manual system, with proof of attendance, is administered by the Houses of the Oireachtas Service. The regulations provide that the attendance record may be corrected, for the appropriate number of days, if the Member can show that their attendance was not recorded at Leinster House due to:

    Attendance abroad in the performance of his or her duties as a Member or as an Office Holder, or in the State, (otherwise than in Leinster House) as part of or on behalf of an Oireachtas Committee,
    Ill-health certified by a medical practitioner (the Member must declare that the absence is medically certified),
    Extraordinary circumstances, determined by the Ceann Comhairle or Cathaoirleach, as may be appropriate, to be good and sufficient and which could not have been foreseen by the Member. In this regard, a Member must apply to the Ceann Comhairle or Cathaoirleach as appropriate

    Secondly, Michael Kennedy expenses of the 4 TDS are unvouched for so he can only claim a max of €15,000 for this year. He would have agreed to the unvounched allowance at the start of the scheme, he could apply for more at the end of the year. Its basically an option to do your books at the end of year while the others have to keep their expenses in order throughout the year but they get a higher allowance for that so more transparency.


    PUBLIC REPRESENTATION ALLOWANCE (PRA)

    Members select either a vouched or unvouched allowance option at the start of the year.

    Unused amounts will be refunded by end of February 2011.
    Applications for additional amounts will be submitted by end of January 2011



    VOUCHED ALLOWANCE: €25,700 MAXIMUM ANNUAL AMOUNT

    Where evidence in the form of vouchers or receipts is available to show that the expenses were incurred (held for five years as subject to audit)

    UNVOUCHED ALLOWANCE: €15,000 MINIMUM ANNUAL AMOUNT


    Michael Kennedy Expenses Budget
    €15,000 PRA
    €8,400 TAA
    €23,400 PSA max yearly expenses

    Currently his expenses are on target for €22,500 for the year.

    It will be tougher next year as currently with the introduction of the scheme in March 2010 their PRA is spent over 10 months while next year they have the same Budget for 12 months. Of course I could say their expenses budget for 2010 should be lower because they only have 10 months. But they kept that quiet in all parties.:rolleyes:


    Darragh O'Brien Expenses Budget
    €25,700 PRA
    €8,400 TAA
    €34,100 PSA max yearly expenses

    Currently his expenses are on target for €31,476 for the year.

    James Reilly & Trevor Sargent Expenses Budgets
    €25,700 PRA
    €24,457 TAA
    €50,157 PSA max yearly expenses

    Currently both have expenses on target for €44,838 for the year.

    Just to compare fellow band 1 members monthly expenses
    Mary Wallace(FF) 4,483.84
    Sean Power(FF) 4,483.84
    Fergus O'Dowd(FG) 4,483.84
    Sean O'Fearghail(FF) 3,592.17(unvouched)
    Andrew Doyle(FG) 4,483.84
    Bernard Durkan(FG) 3,592.17(unvouched)
    Thomas Byrne(FF) 4,483.84
    Michael Fitzpatrick(FF) 4,483.84
    Emmet Stag(LB) 3,592.17(unvouched)

    Strange isn't it for anyone that has filled out expenses in the private sector to see expenses consistently matching every month with so many different individuals and variables involved. Remember this covers electricity and some calls so the consistent figures are staggering. Anyone else think its just a paper exercise going on here?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,871 ✭✭✭Corsendonk


    FYI
    Constituency Profile for Dublin North- information is pulled from 2006 Census so some info will have changed dramatically with the recession but an interesting browse all the same. We are better educated than the average citizen and have a longer commute to work than the average citizen among many facts to delight your friends in the pub or club with!!

    http://www.oireachtas.ie/documents/library/constituencies_profiles/Dublin_North.pdf


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,256 ✭✭✭LeoB


    Wow You are reallly Sherlock Holmes? ;)

    I suppose just maybe they actually spend more and claim the max allowable? My fuel over a mont for the van is probably around €300 but I do the approx the same miles every day give or take 5 0r 10 so it could be €290 or €310 but they I imagine would have a lot of variables to factor in. Thats strange ok.:confused:

    Thanks for that post, excellent.

    Oh and the challenge in my previous post?????


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,844 ✭✭✭Jimdagym


    Alan Farrell is running. Only (re-)elected as counciller June last year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭Alan Farrell


    Jimdagym wrote: »
    Alan Farrell is running. Only (re-)elected as counciller June last year.

    only?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,871 ✭✭✭Corsendonk


    only?


    http://www.fingalcoco.ie/Files/Council/2009%20Local%20Election%20Results%20Howth%20Malahide%20LEA.pdf

    Elected 4th out of 5 on the 10th count after receiving the second highest(2739) first preference in the ward of Malahide Howth. Tranfers were rather weak do.

    Smart idea selecting a candidate from the south of the constituency with another candidate from the north/centre, FF did it with GV and Jim Glennon in the past to help manage the votes better. But the Malahide-Howth Ward is split between two constituncies so not a strong as move as it seems.

    Local factor won't count either with two sitting TDs with very close links to that area of the constituency unless the family tree can be used to point out relatives living in the centre and north areas.

    James Reilly was elected on the 10th count last time so will he be strong enough this time around to pull in transfer for the other FG candidate?

    http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2007&cons=96


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭wow sierra


    I hope that one word comment from Alan Farrell will be the last we hear from him on this thread. I assume comments from an actual candidate counts as electioneering?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 762 ✭✭✭SeaSide


    wow sierra wrote: »
    I hope that one word comment from Alan Farrell will be the last we hear from him on this thread. I assume comments from an actual candidate counts as electioneering?

    Perhaps a separate electioneering, full contact, spitting, biting, name-calling and scratching thread???


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭Alan Farrell


    wow sierra wrote: »
    I hope that one word comment from Alan Farrell will be the last we hear from him on this thread. I assume comments from an actual candidate counts as electioneering?

    I'm sure the readers of this thread/regional area will not view my reply as electioneering given I've been here for a number of years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,818 ✭✭✭✭The Hill Billy


    wow sierra - Quit the back-seat modding.

    Alan has a proven track record as a poster on many topics in this forum & I am sure that he will abide be the forum & thread rules.

    HB


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,871 ✭✭✭Corsendonk


    Declared Candidates for North Dublin so far. 4 seats to be filled.

    Source: Electionsireland.org

    Michael Kennedy FF
    Daragh O'Brien FF
    James Reilly FG
    Cllr Alan Farrell FG
    Sen Brendan Ryan Labour
    Trevor Sargent Greens
    Cllr Clare Daly Socialist Party


    As yet no white smoke from the dark horse party in the next election SF. Interestly Labour have decided to play it safe and only selected one candidate in Dublin North, there were rumours that they were going to have two on the card.

    Even do the Greens have took a battering I expect Trendy Trev to survive if he remains the only strong candidate from Balbriggan, people might not like him or his policies but for many any local TD is better than none so he should scrape in on transfers from heavily populated Balbriggan.

    Joe Higgins MEP will be running in Dublin West, he should benefit from any of Clare Daly supporters transferring from Dublin North into Dublin West.


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