Definite Probability of Social Welfare Being Halved After 100Billion IMF Bail Out

SIX PACK

Im just watching Sky news & they seem to be covering our crisis more than RTE ... I really believe now that social welfare is going to be halved in our budget to curb government spending!!! Anyone singing off the same hymn sheet.
I know taxes are going up its inevitable, Im really scared for my future on this Titanic island.
I think i may have to go back to Australia

partyatmygaff

If they halve social welfare rates, they'll triple crime rates.

ArtSmart

you left Oz??? what are you nuts?


Halve would be fine - as long as recipients can go a-robbin and a-plundering of course.

ArtSmart

partyatmygaff wrote: »

If they halve social welfare rates, they'll triple crime rates.

At least it'll create more Garda jobs. hey, maybe this is part of the jobs drive clowen was on about?

SIX PACK

I was only on a Working Holiday Visa when that was up i didnt want to stay & be an Illegal Alein . . .

caseyann

SIX PACK wrote: »

Im just watching Sky news & they seem to be covering our crisis more than RTE ... I really believe now that social welfare is going to be halved in our budget to curb government spending!!! Anyone singing off the same hymn sheet.
I know taxes are going up its inevitable, Im really scared for my future on this Titanic island.
I think i may have to go back to Australia

Pity they wouldnt cut their own wages and free everything isnt it.

FearDark

How on earth can a person live on half what the socail welfare are currently paying? Its not possible. I was on 196 euros and getting 26 euros rent allowance when I was unemployed, luckily enough my rent was only 60 euros a week but still by the time I bought food and paid bills it literally left nothing, it was always a poor poor Tuesday I remember.

How could you live on €100 a week, absolutely impossible. Survive maybe... but live no. Watch crime and suicide rates go through the roof.

Dannyboy83

As said, the IMF don't look to cure the social problems created by the government, only the financial ones.

I don't think the dole will be cut by 50% in Year 1, but I'd say almost certainly will be cut by 50% by Year 4.

Rhamiel

I dont think it will be halved.. there would be more warning signals for something that drastic. 10 to 20 quid shaved off it most likely!

I dont agree that its not enough as it is! Its very generous!! (in UK it 50 pound a week max!!)
I know plenty of people living merrily on it with no incentive to even look for work!!

murphaph

partyatmygaff wrote: »

If they halve social welfare rates, they'll triple crime rates.

That's a seriously low opinion of people on social welfare you have there.

SIX PACK

Watch crime and suicide rates go through the roof.

I think its time to join an illegal Organisation. Its either sink or swim :mad:

Nodin

SIX PACK wrote: »

............. I really believe now that social welfare is going to be halved in our budget to curb government spending!!! ........

And what statements/indicators is this based on, other than your belief?

murphaph

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

As said, the IMF don't look to cure the social problems created by the government, only the financial ones.

I don't think the dole will be cut by 50% in Year 1, but I'd say almost certainly will be cut by 50% by Year 4.

50% in 4 years is an ambitious target but one we really need to meet because even at ca. 100€ per month, we'd still be paying more that both Germany and the UK for long term unemployed.

I thiink dole should be frozen at 196 for those made unemplyed and should remain at that level, whilst falling each year for the next 4 years for those still out of work after 12 months.

People on long term benefits should not be receiving the same as somebody just made unemployed.

Rhamiel

Rhamiel wrote: »

I dont think it will be halved.. there would be more warning signals for something that drastic. 10 to 20 quid shaved off it most likely!

Ahh yes, because we received so many warning signs for all the other ball crushers the government have allowed to happen. :rolleyes:

I dont agree that its not enough as it is! Its very generous!! (in UK it 50 pound a week max!!)

Are you living on it?

The current amount is adequate to cover living costs and not much else. But then TBH its not supposed to cover much more. But cutting it will force a lot of people to leave Ireland. But I guess that's the point.

I'll be gone come January. Most of my immediate circle of friends (those not already gone) on welfare are also leaving within two-three months after Christmas. Fact is that we're going to have another exodus once people have saved up enough cash for flights, visas, and initial funds.

loike

People may be able to live of it if the cost of living went down.
20p for a pack of 16 paracetamol in the UK
god knows how much more it is here

Durnish

I reckon your welfare rates will have to be cut. If George Osborne, the UK chancellor, is helping out with this he may well insist that ROI rates of E190 be brought into line with the UK 50 or 60 quid rate.
To those UK taxpayers on this side of the border that differential seems absurd.

Javiero

Does anybody know exactly how much is spent on social welfare for a current year? I'm just curious

SIX PACK

Javiero wrote: »

Does anybody know exactly how much is spent on social welfare for a current year? I'm just curious

8 Billion approx (correct me if im way off)

ArtSmart

murphaph wrote: »

That's a seriously low opinion of people on social welfare you have there.

True. Starvation is a far more noble road. or begging of course. or prayer.

Holybejaysus

Dear OP;

Your opinion does not mean there is a "definite probability" of welfare reduction.
Please refrain from melodramatic tabloid style headlines in future. Links to back up your claim or STFU.

Yours etc.
HB

Rhamiel

Deleted User wrote: »

Ahh yes, because we received so many warning signs for all the other ball crushers the government have allowed to happen. :rolleyes:



Are you living on it?

So you saying it will be halved? I dont think the government would just pull that one out of the bag on the day unless they had the riot squad deployed nationwide!


Yes I am actually getting back to education of 196 a week thank you very much! And I lived on much less when working part time or in college without BTEA so your wasting your whinges on me Im afraid

partyatmygaff

murphaph wrote: »

That's a seriously low opinion of people on social welfare you have there.

You (And the person who thanked your post) missed the point entirely.

When 500,000 people and families are made to live on 100 euro a week, what would you expect? As poverty levels rise so do other social problems such as crime.

Rhamiel

Rhamiel wrote: »

So you saying it will be halved? I dont think the government would just pull that one out of the bag on the day unless they had the riot squad deployed nationwide!

Ahh yes. Like they revealed the case of Anglo immediately? Or the current state of Debt? Or the host of other failures on their part?

Like seriously... how can you believe that the Government will be honest with us about the situation, when they have done nothing to earn that trust?

Yes I am actually getting back to education of 196 a week thank you very much! And I lived on much less when working part time or in college without BTEA so your wasting your whinges on me Im afraid

Whinges? haha... How exactly was I whinging? I have stated that people will leave the country because of the future cuts. Am I wrong? As for the 50% cut, its possible. I don't claim to have insider knowledge on the subject.

Dannyboy83

Javiero wrote: »

Does anybody know exactly how much is spent on social welfare for a current year? I'm just curious

SIX PACK wrote: »

8 Billion approx (correct me if im way off)

You're way off.

We spend 20 billion per year on social welfare.
We spend 20 billion per year on public sector wages.
We borrow 20 billion per year.

We earn 30 billion per year.

No prizes for drawing the dots.

Anyone arguing against public sector wage reform and social welfare rate reform, at this stage, has a better chance of arguing with the Sun not to rise.

Overheal

FearDark wrote: »

How on earth can a person live on half what the socail welfare are currently paying? Its not possible. I was on 196 euros and getting 26 euros rent allowance when I was unemployed, luckily enough my rent was only 60 euros a week but still by the time I bought food and paid bills it literally left nothing, it was always a poor poor Tuesday I remember.

How could you live on €100 a week, absolutely impossible. Survive maybe... but live no. Watch crime and suicide rates go through the roof.

Pardon an ignorant question, but where's the Deflation?

gurramok

SIX PACK wrote: »

8 Billion approx (correct me if im way off)

21bn+ www.welfare.ie/ga/press/pressreleases/2010/Documents/pr081010.pdf


http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_welfare_chart_40.html

UK has 12 times the population and yet our welfare bill is around fifth to a sixth of theirs.

Rhamiel

Deleted User wrote: »

I have stated that people will leave the country because of the future cuts. Am I wrong? As for the 50% cut, its possible. I don't claim to have insider knowledge on the subject.

Well from a purely financial point of view if there is no work for people here is it not better they find work in a different country rather than live off benefits that the country can ill afford?


Not by any means the ideal situation but the country is in a mess!
.. would it not be more ideal if benefit money was cut and pumped into job creation??

SIX PACK

Holybejaysus wrote: »

Dear OP;

Your opinion does not mean there is a "definite probability" of welfare reduction.
Please refrain from melodramatic tabloid style headlines in future. Links to back up your claim or STFU.

Yours etc.
HB

Well how else are we going to make 6/8 Billion in cuts Year 1 ?
Please dont give an Eamon Gilmore answer!
Lets be real we have to expect the worst case scenario its the IMF who are calling the shots now . . .

stateofflux

i really doubt social welfare will be halved...its just not realistic...would definitely see at least a 10% cut to it & a similar sized cut to public sector wages....

Latchy

loike wrote: »

People may be able to live of it if the cost of living went down.
20p for a pack of 16 paracetamol in the UK
god knows how much more it is here

That's would be difference between the economys were outside London, specialy up north in places like Liverpool and Manchester , you can still in get a decent pint for £2 / 2.50 compared to 5/8 euros in Ireland .

Between the high street stores such as ASDA Tesco ,Sainsbuys and the ' slightly ' more downmarket stores such as Aldi , Lidil , local independent / neighbourhood stores , competiton dictates prices with a bigger varity of stores to choose from and and compare prices with .

If the dole in Ireland is cut and cost of living remains as it is then people will struggle but only because many have being used to a type of lifestyle and paying higher prices in a once thriving economy . However once people get used to a bit of thriftiness and budgeting which might be the reality , not the option , then the quicker one adapts as the recession of the 80s proves .That's for those living there but sadly just as back then , many thousends will leave Ireland

thetonynator

Isn't ''definite probablility'' a contradiction of itself???

How can it be definite if its only a probability???

dillo2k10

Since the IMF are all about balancing the books then it would make sense to cut the welfare down to €50-60. That alone would nearly stop us from having to borrow money. Were borrowing €19b per year and spending €21b per year on Social Welfare. Im assuming that doesn't include rent allowance. If they stop paying some people €800 per month for rent allowance that would save a hell of a lot,

Instead of paying the rent allowance they could put them in all of those houses that they plan on knocking down as there is no one to live in them.

Pete_Cavan

murphaph wrote: »

People on long term benefits should not be receiving the same as somebody just made unemployed.

Thats exactly the point I was going to make. I have no problem with them halving the dole but they should not touch Job Seekers Benifits (for those who have paid adequate social insurance contributions and who are out of work). The welfare system should be a support net for those who find themselves out of work, not a reason to avoid working.

billy the squid

There is no such thing as a definate Probability. And cutting SW by half in one year would reduce the budget by 10 billion, they are only making 6 billion in cuts.

sollar

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

You're way off.

We spend 20 billion per year on social welfare.
We spend 20 billion per year on public sector wages.
We borrow 20 billion per year.

The figure you quote for public sector pay is inaccurate and misleading. PS pay is not 20 billion, The PS pay and pensions bill above is the gross figure.

For the net figure (actual cost to state) see the link below, It is 15 Billion. A full 5 Billion less than you misrepresent in your post dannyboy83.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/reports/2010/payanal0510.pdf

Rhamiel

Rhamiel wrote: »

Well from a purely financial point of view if there is no work for people here is it not better they find work in a different country rather than live off benefits that the country can ill afford?

That depends on the numbers of people involved, the skills which the country loses, and what else is taken out of the country with them. And whether they feel any reason to return in the future. Honestly, once I leave, I have zero intention of returning again for any permanent feature.

Not by any means the ideal situation but the country is in a mess!
.. would it not be more ideal if benefit money was cut and pumped into job creation??

Personally, that should have been done two years ago never mind about now. But yes, the government should be seeking to make use of those on welfare. So give them jobs which reflect the skills that they have, and in return give them the €196 (and whatever benefits they're entitled to).

Its all very well stating that the debt needs to be paid off, but what happens when the economy starts looking for skilled people and they just aren't here anymore. Give people a reason to stay.

sollar

dillo2k10 wrote: »

Were borrowing €19b per year and spending €21b per year on Social Welfare.

Its important to point out too that people on social welfare draw money from the health budget in the form of medical cards and associated costs. The cost of present unemploment numbers to the state is massive.

dan_d

SW does need to be cut, but I don't think they could halve it straight away. It would be completely disastrous, for more reasons than I care to go into right now;)

sollar

sollar wrote: »

Its important to point out too that people on social welfare draw money from the health budget in the form of medical cards and associated costs. The cost of present unemploment numbers to the state is massive.

Let me make that more accurate...

"Its important to point out too that some people on social welfare can draw money from the health budget in the form of medical cards and associated costs. The cost of present unemploment numbers to the state is massive."

Not everyone is entitled to medical cards or other welfare benefits. I have a medical card, and haven't used it for any payments. I, surely, can't be the only one.

lornakg

stateofflux wrote: »

i really doubt social welfare will be halved...its just not realistic...would definitely see at least a 10% cut to it & a similar sized cut to public sector wages....

Public sector wages already had a 14% cut in the last 12 months. Public sector workers 'work' for their money, dole is not worked for so why are the 2 constantly compared?? Dole is way too high.
I have no objection to people on benifit getting 196 pw, its their money that they have paid into the system but i DO object to people who have never worked and never intend to work getting 196 pw to do as they please with.
PAYMENTS SHOULD DROP BY 25% EVERY 12 MONTHS UNTIL THEY STOP COMPLETELY IF EMPLOYMENT IS NOT TAKEN UP.

maynooth_rules

I think I read today that the amount we spend on social welfare has quadrupled in the last 10 years. Make whatever arguments you want, but our social welfare rates are much too high. With it looking like the minimum wage is going to be cut by a euro, then the knife has to come down on social welfare or nobody will take low paying jobs. Why should we have a social welfare rate 3 times that of England. Its a joke. Im in England every second weekend and the cost of living is only marginally higher here. On top of this our children's allowance is nearly double that of Englands, plus we actually give a higher rate for the third child, england cut the rate for extra children. In the last 10 years our social welfare rates have ballooned out of proportion.

SIX PACK

Id love to work in the public sector. Its a Guranteed Job & you would never have to worry about getting laid off :rolleyes:. Or having to go on social welfare

sollar

Deleted User wrote: »

Let me make that more accurate...

"Its important to point out too that some people on social welfare can draw money from the health budget in the form of medical cards and associated costs. The cost of present unemploment numbers to the state is massive."

True

Deleted User wrote: »

Not everyone is entitled to medical cards or other welfare benefits. I have a medical card, and haven't used it for any payments. I, surely, can't be the only one.

The doctor that stamped your medical card application form gets a yearly fee for having you on his books even if you don't go near him at all.

SIX PACK

sollar wrote: »

The doctor that stamped your medical card application form gets a yearly fee for having you on his books even if you don't go near him at all.

Poor GP's need all the €€€ they can get. My Doc is driving around a 2year old car :eek:

caseyann

maynooth_rules wrote: »

I think I read today that the amount we spend on social welfare has quadrupled in the last 10 years. Make whatever arguments you want, but our social welfare rates are much too high. With it looking like the minimum wage is going to be cut by a euro, then the knife has to come down on social welfare or nobody will take low paying jobs. Why should we have a social welfare rate 3 times that of England. Its a joke. Im in England every second weekend and the cost of living is only marginally higher here. On top of this our children's allowance is nearly double that of Englands, plus we actually give a higher rate for the third child, england cut the rate for extra children. In the last 10 years our social welfare rates have ballooned out of proportion.

So sick of hearing this rubbish,people i know who are on social welfare in UK say it balances out to about the same,or they get more in the extras they get,which the Irish dont to equivalent of whats given here for their costs and living,as is there.Also in Sweden same thing.

Dannyboy83

sollar wrote: »

The figure you quote for public sector pay is inaccurate and misleading. PS pay is not 20 billion, The PS pay and pensions bill above is the gross figure.

For the net figure (actual cost to state) see the link below, It is 15 Billion. A full 5 Billion less than you misrepresent in your post dannyboy83.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/reports/2010/payanal0510.pdf

What is your point exactly?
The gross figure is represented.
It's neither innacurate nor misleading.

It's not my problem if you cannot read the diagram provided which clearly states that it represents the expenditure for public sector & pensions.

If you wish to dispute the figure - take it up with Colm McCarthy, the diagram is extracted from the Bord Snip Nua report.

earlyevening

FYI, here are the figures which indicate the dramatic rise in unemployment benefit in the last few years.

Budget 2000: €96.50
Budget 2001: €106.66 (+10.5%)
Budget 2002: €118.80 (+11.3%)
Budget 2003: €124.80 (+5%)
Budget 2004: €134.80 (+8%)
Budget 2005: €148.80 (+10.3%)
Budget 2006: €165.80 (+11.4%)
Budget 2007: €185.80 (+12%)
Budget 2008: €197.80 (+6.4%)
Budget 2009: €204.80 (+3.5%) .

I've stuck this table up on a number of posts recently. Draw your own conclusions.

ntlbell

caseyann wrote: »

So sick of hearing this rubbish,people i know who are on social welfare in UK say it balances out to about the same,or they get more in the extras they get,which the Irish dont to equivalent of whats given here for their costs and living,as is there.Also in Sweden same thing.

Do you have any sources or figures to give us a sample of the living costs to SW in the uk compared to ireland?

or is it just a case of you know someone in the uk said it was the same?

yosemite_sam

earlyevening wrote: »

FYI, here are the figures which indicate the dramatic rise in unemployment benefit in the last few years.

Budget 2000: €96.50
Budget 2001: €106.66 (+10.5%)
Budget 2002: €118.80 (+11.3%)
Budget 2003: €124.80 (+5%)
Budget 2004: €134.80 (+8%)
Budget 2005: €148.80 (+10.3%)
Budget 2006: €165.80 (+11.4%)
Budget 2007: €185.80 (+12%)
Budget 2008: €197.80 (+6.4%)
Budget 2009: €204.80 (+3.5%) .

I've stuck this table up on a number of posts recently. Draw your own conclusions.

Budget 2000: €96.50
It needs to get back to this amount, the new minimum wage would then look attractive, there are bums around here who have been on it all their adult lives and they have a better life style than people who work

caseyann

yosemite_sam wrote: »

Budget 2000: €96.50
It needs to get back to this amount, the new minimum wage would then look attractive, there are bums around here who have been on it all their adult lives and they have a better life style than people who work

They are called drug dealers and criminals :rolleyes: How is the minimum wage going to look attractive when cost of living is still up? Have you bought school stuff for kids and paid for petrol and food and bills and clothes and shoes for your kids and paid rent or mortgage on minimum wage?

Cavehill Red

SIX PACK wrote: »

Im just watching Sky news & they seem to be covering our crisis more than RTE ... I really believe now that social welfare is going to be halved in our budget to curb government spending!!! Anyone singing off the same hymn sheet.
I know taxes are going up its inevitable, Im really scared for my future on this Titanic island.
I think i may have to go back to Australia

THE DOLIES DID NOT BANKRUPT THE COUNTRY.
Let's repeat that so it sinks in, shall we?
The dolies did not bankrupt the country.

The bankers and their enablers in Fianna Fail did.

You can cut the dole to zero and you'll still be paying back billions that is NOT YOUR DEBT.

Of course, with the dole at zero, you'd be crapping yourself about losing your job, and the victim of increased crime as people try to survive, and the banksters would STILL be getting their dough.

But hey, cool story, bro.