Imperial Commander - Haydock Saturday

MassDeb8r

6% unseated record? I’ll take that.

Here are a few points to note ahead of Saturday's Betfair Chase at Haydock.
1. It is the first Grade 1 chase of the British National Hunt Season and current Gold Cup Champion Imperial Commander begins a three-race season. He will run at Haydock, in the King George and The Gold Cup.
2. Imperial Commander runs well fresh, his seasonal reappearance record is 1-1-2
3. There is no Kauto Star in the race (Kauto has won 3 of the last 4 and would have won all 4 had he not unseated at the last in 2008 when in the lead)
4. In the 2009 renewal Imperial Commander was rated 21lbs inferior to Kauto Star but lost by just a nose.
5. Imperial Commander is currently trading at 8/11 and will win barring accidents, he has never fallen and unseated only once in his career, at Aintree when a tired horse, 1 “U” in 17 starts is just under 6%, I’ll take that.

Imperial Commander is top drawer, he has a current handicap rating of 185, second in the ratings only to Kauto Star and the race revolves around him being fit and fresh. Faith in the exploits of the 9 year old can only be affirmed by the comments of his Naunton-based trainer Norman Twiston-Davies who stated he has a “very, very good chance of success in this race”.

Last Season, Imperial Commander’s race record read P251U-, not the most impressive of records on paper you would think, but you would be wrong. His solitary win, a near-flawless performance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup catapulted the son of Flemensfirth into the ranks of the best staying chasers around, a reputation he will surely maintain Saturday.

Owned by the 8-strong “Our friends in the North” syndicate, many believe that defeat in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last year was the catalyst for his success in The Gold Cup. In a desperately close finish, jockey Paddy Brennan, punched the air passing the finishing line in the belief he had beaten the-then Gold Cup Champion, Kauto Star. This was not so and Paul Nicholls superstar inflicted another defeat on Imperial Commander in The King George when he beat him by 63 lengths before he turned the tables in Cheltenham when he was so conditioned and ripe, his trainer called him “a ball of muscle”.

With a prize fund of £200,000, The Betfair Chase (registered as the Lancashire Chase.) was first run in 2005. It served as part of a marketing event, the Betfair Million. Sponsor of the series sponsor, betting exchange Betfair, offered a £1,000,000 bonus to the winner of the Betfair Chase, King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup. After Kauto Star won the series in effortless fashion, Betfair changed the format to any first-three finisher achieving first or second at the Cheltenham Festival and then winning the Grand National. Last year it was The Betfair Million was dropped altogether.
Although just 7 go to post for the race, it is not a penalty kick for Imperial Commander; Paul Nicholls run’s the Sir. Alex Ferguson-owned What A Friend, who he describes as a “'lean, lean machine'”. Now recuperated from a breathing operation over the summer, What A Friend has already beaten Imperial Commander, he did so at Aintree in the Totesport Bowl Chase and prior to that he had a big win at Leopardstown over Christmas when he took the Lexus Chase. He is a tough sort and was beaten just once last season, by Denman in the Hennessy Gold Cup and at 7, the best may be yet to come.

Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup winner, Planet Of Sound may run into place claims, 100/1 outsider Atouchbetweenacara is only one of two entries with the benefit of a run this season. Nacarat, winner of the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase three weeks ago is not as top-class as Imperial Commander but should be the improving sort.

It will be very hard to beat Imperial Commander; he was no flash in the pan at Cheltenham his jockey noted after schooling the gelding that “he felt every bit as well if not better than last year. There’s no such thing as a good thing in racing but I couldn’t be happier with my horse”.

The Imperial Commander Camp will be hoping to build momentum after the race on Saturday and they have every right to be confident, he may indeed prove imperious.

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http://irishhorseracingblog.blogspot.com/

premierstone

MassDeb8r wrote: »

4. In the 2009 renewal Imperial Commander was rated 21lbs inferior to Kauto Star but lost by just a nose.]

If at all, tbh Im still not convinced he lost that race.

MassDeb8r

I agree with you premier, Paddy Brennan was sure he got it on the nod, it should have been a DH at the very least!

TheMilkyPirate

He's won once away from cheltenham under rules a novice hurdle at newcastle nearly four years ago. His race record reads 146173/114/161/P251U- hardly that of a champion.

I hate the way this horse is so highly rated he was lucky to get so close to kauto at haydock which was confirmed when he beat him out of sight in his next start. His record away from cheltenham reads 136PU25UR. And it is as bad as it looks never getting closer than 19 lengths to a rival in all those starts except for his one and only start at haydock, Which i suppose is a glimmer of hope for "the commanders" followers.

8/11? Your havin' a laugh.

Goldcupfav

I seen an interview recently with NTD (on CH4 racing last Saturday i think). He said that last year at Haydock the horse wasnt fully fit when running Kauto to a nose. He said he couldnt be happy this time around. Plus the horse is best fresh and going left handed. Think the 8/11 is a fair enough price.

UrbanSea

I can never bring myself to back this horse. One of the most over rated horses in training. He beat an exhausted Denman and totally off Kauto to win a Gold Cup,can't have him odds on.

mdwexford

Around Cheltenham he is a serious horse, Paddy Power, Ryanair and Gold Cup wins confirm this and while holes can be picked in the form of the latter two that can be said of most races.

However he is unreliable, he always has some excuse out of NTD when he does make a mess of things. I couldnt be backing him at odds on in a Grade 1 ever. Personally i do think he is a bit too highly rated at the moment.

RichieLawlor

NTD saying he wasnt fully fit in this race last year was a reaction to Nicholls saying Kauto needed the run.


The man is full of ****. Last year he said IC was best fresh and then ran him weeks after cheltenham at Aintree against the owners better judgement.

Morgans

Very very very quick to dismiss his good runs. A fluke against Kauto Star last year in this race, and then fluke at cheltenham against a legless Denman. I'd bet if IC wasnt in the race, there would be plenty saying Denman was as good as Arkle in hammering Kauto Star etc.

I cant see how anyone (even the most blinkered) could see that Imperial Commander ran to form in the King George. Ignore the fact that he should have been pulled up after bulldozing the second and did very well to even get back into contention down the back straight.

His bad runs can ALL be put down to lack of freshness. When freshness he is just about unbeaten. (sh hd in this race last year).

Ive had my biggest bet of 2010 on him at 5/6 and cant see how he can be beaten. I can appreciate people not wanting to take a short price, but on form, its a one horse race. I dont suppose anyone looking to take him on has any queries about What a Friend's character?

RichieLawlor

baraca wrote: »

He's won once away from cheltenham under rules a novice hurdle at newcastle nearly four years ago. His race record reads 146173/114/161/P251U- hardly that of a champion.

I hate the way this horse is so highly rated he was lucky to get so close to kauto at haydock which was confirmed when he beat him out of sight in his next start. His record away from cheltenham reads 136PU25UR. And it is as bad as it looks never getting closer than 19 lengths to a rival in all those starts except for his one and only start at haydock, Which i suppose is a glimmer of hope for "the commanders" followers.

8/11? Your havin' a laugh.

Morgans wrote: »

Very very very quick to dismiss his good runs. A fluke against Kauto Star last year in this race, and then fluke at cheltenham against a legless Denman. I'd bet if IC wasnt in the race, there would be plenty saying Denman was as good as Arkle in hammering Kauto Star etc.

I cant see how anyone (even the most blinkered) could see that Imperial Commander ran to form in the King George. Ignore the fact that he should have been pulled up after bulldozing the second and did very well to even get back into contention down the back straight.

His bad runs can ALL be put down to lack of freshness. When freshness he is just about unbeaten. (sh hd in this race last year).

Ive had my biggest bet of 2010 on him at 5/6 and cant see how he can be beaten. I can appreciate people not wanting to take a short price, but on form, its a one horse race. I dont suppose anyone looking to take him on has any queries about What a Friend's character?

The argument above is a good one.

I think IC will probably win, although What A Friend is constantly improving.

Ive no massive opinion only that i think NTD is a twat

Nulty

Donn McClean has picked Planet Of Sound for the race at 8/1. I haven't looked at it yet myself but I'm a believer in Imperial Commander and think he'll beat them all. I wouldn't be betting him at odds on though. But like I said: I haven't looked at the race yet

I have a dislike for Imperial commander for some reason and it really annoys me that he is rated higher than Denman. When you look at their records IC's is awful in comparison to Denman's.

Morgans

Would Denman be good enough to win a Ryanair? He might be, but I dont think it would be certain.

Yeah, great focus on Imperial Commander's failing when not fresh, but Denman's abject performances at Kempton, Newbury and Punchestown are forgotten as if they never happened.

The form figures of a horse are meaningless (they never tell the full story), but it churlish to decry Imperial Commander when Denman's form figures over the last two years are 22F-1U24.

mdwexford

In fairness with both at their peak Denman is the better horse without question, in my eyes at least.

Denman hasnt been the same horse since the heart problems imo.

RichieLawlor

Tbh I don't think Denman would win a Ryanair.

Also I don't agree with IC current rating being higher than Denmans lifetime best. But meh.

I think its the constant shouts from NTD about IC being 'the best horse' that puts people off. Letbthe horse do it's thing.

Again comes back to my distain for NTD

Morgans

It obvious that Denman isnt as consistent as he was before the gold cup. I do think that that Gold Cup was the most brutal Ive seen, and it may have left a mark. The heart op wouldnt have helped but its impossible to quantify its effects. What Im sure of is that Denman has run his two of his very best performances following the operation.

On the face of it, I do think Denman is the greater horse of the pair, the exploits are huge, but it doesnt mean that IC's Gold Cup form can be downgraded, (the idea that last years King George being a true reflection of the horses ability is laughable) and for this weekends purposes, he isnt facing anything the calibre of Denman at his best.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

It obvious that Denman isnt as consistent as he was before the gold cup. I do think that that Gold Cup was the most brutal Ive seen, and it may have left a mark. The heart op wouldnt have helped but its impossible to quantify its effects. What Im sure of is that Denman has run his two of his very best performances following the operation.

On the face of it, I do think Denman is the greater horse of the pair, the exploits are huge, but it doesnt mean that IC's Gold Cup form can be downgraded, (the idea that last years King George being a true reflection of the horses ability is laughable) and for this weekends purposes, he isnt facing anything the calibre of Denman at his best.

Agreed. And to run 5th in last years KG was a massive run after kicking the second out of the ground. Saying that I think Kauto Star is unbeatable around Kempton over 3m.

Imperial Commander is definitely value at the current price for Saturday. However, and possibly foolishly he is not my cup of tea, and I will be having no bet.

gscully

Ryan Delightful Cocoa wrote: »

I have a dislike for Imperial commander for some reason and it really annoys me that he is rated higher than Denman. When you look at their records IC's is awful in comparison to Denman's.

Ratings are just one man's opinion and to be taken with a pinch of salt imho. Too often, they're the result of one good performance. Menorah and Peddlers Cross were rated as some the weakest winners in Cheltenham in recent years, yet Menorah has already come out this season and won nicely and looks a good horse.

Morgans

gscully wrote: »

Ratings are just one man's opinion and to be taken with a pinch of salt imho. Too often, they're the result of one good performance. Menorah and Peddlers Cross were rated as some the weakest winners in Cheltenham in recent years, yet Menorah has already come out this season and won nicely and looks a good horse.

The opinion of one man is decides how much weight Denman has to give to the rest of the field at the weekend. Dismissing them or saying that they should be taken with a pinch of salt betrays a misunderstanding of some of the basic fundamentals about racing, and even physics. The top rated horse does not win every race, but that isnt what ratings are for. Of course, you are free to misinterpret what ratings mean, that is your choice.

Is Get Me Out Of Here, who got so close to Menorah last year at cheltenham last year, and beaten miles this year a good horse or not?

premierstone

I think alot of the apathy towards IC is down to the fact that most race fans were either a Kauto or a Denman fan and along came this guy and upset the whole media circus, That added to the fact that as Richie alluded to NTD is a bit of a gombeen.

Personally myself I have been a fan for a while, probably mainly down to Paddy Brennan, but I cant understand how anyone can so easily dismiss a horse that has won a Paddy Power, Ryanair and a Gold Cup, and has, at least in my view, actually scope for improvement, he was a late developer granted and perhaps people judged too quick and are too reluctant to change their mind.

premierstone

Morgans wrote: »

Is Get Me Out Of Here, who got so close to Menorah last year at cheltenham last year, and beaten miles this year a good horse or not?

A chaser but thats just a tad OT

Morgans

premierstone wrote: »

A chaser but thats just a tad OT

The point I was driving at is that Menorah's supreme novice form might not have achieved a high rating, but that doesnt mean that he isnt open for improvement. Ratings dont predict anything, they just say what a horse has achieved in the prevailing circumstances of any race.

Yeah. I wouldnt be surprised if you saw a different horse emerge around the tote gold trophy again. Yeah. OT.

UrbanSea

Ryan Delightful Cocoa wrote: »

I have a dislike for Imperial commander for some reason and it really annoys me that he is rated higher than Denman. When you look at their records IC's is awful in comparison to Denman's.

Please say he isn't rated higher than Denman? I never knew that.

Morgans wrote: »

Would Denman be good enough to win a Ryanair? He might be, but I dont think it would be certain.

Yeah, great focus on Imperial Commander's failing when not fresh, but Denman's abject performances at Kempton, Newbury and Punchestown are forgotten as if they never happened.

The form figures of a horse are meaningless (they never tell the full story), but it churlish to decry Imperial Commander when Denman's form figures over the last two years are 22F-1U24.

I don't think unseating his rider can count as a bad performer,he was going to win the race in my eyes.

mdwexford wrote: »

In fairness with both at their peak Denman is the better horse without question, in my eyes at least.

Denman hasnt been the same horse since the heart problems imo.

True. His Gold Cup win seemed to take a huge amount out of him. That Hennessy last year was unbelievable though,giving about 10 tonnes away to What A Friend(who would have beaten Imperial Commander even if his jockey stayed on him at Aintree,but is somehow rated higher than Denman)

Morgans

greetings wrote: »

Please say he isn't rated higher than Denman? I never knew that.

I don't think unseating his rider can count as a bad performer,he was going to win the race in my eyes.


True. His Gold Cup win seemed to take a huge amount out of him. That Hennessy last year was unbelievable though,giving about 10 tonnes away to What A Friend(who would have beaten Imperial Commander even if his jockey stayed on him at Aintree,but is somehow rated higher than Denman)

Too much wrong with this. Learn about ratings. Things will become clearer. Do you not get it that if Denman can give 10 tonnes (jesus) to What A Friend and Imperial Commander beats Denman (running to the same level), then Imperial Commander can give 10 tonnes away to What A Friend. Ten year olds could come to this conclusion. Denman may have won at Newbury because he unseated, but again, form figures as they are before a horses name are utterly meaningless. Useless. The rating that he ran to would be far far far more informative. Winning the gold cup or a selling chase gets you a 1 before your name. What we do know about Newburty was that he was going to struggle to beat Tricky Trickster and Niche Market, rated about 30lbs below him. Both horses that were miles behind him in the Gold Cup, close enough to 30lbs to show that Denman ran as well as ever in the race. However, both horses were 30lbs behind Imperial Commander also. Again, this is ten year old stuff. Until you understand handicapping, you are only gasbagging on here. Ten tonnes. Im trying to help people understand where they need to make the next level of analysis. Im far from perfect, but I know that I stopped looking at the form figures before a horses name at age 12/13.

Morgans

ok, Denman beat What a Friend giving him 10 tonnes.

And What a Friend was going to beat Imperial Commander at aintree before he fell.

Therefore Denman could give Imperial Commander ten tonnes and beat him. This is the arguement.

We'll ignore the FACT that Imperial Commander beat Denman off level weights in the Gold Cup, seems to be a popular pastime here and I'll ask a direct questions

Would Denman would beat Imperial Commander giving him 2 stone (not ten tonnes) this weekend?

Would Denman would beat Imperial Commander giving him 1 stone (not ten tonnes) this weekend?

Would Denman would beat Imperial Commander giving him 7lbs (not ten tonnes) this weekend?

Or maybe weights dont matter, handicaps are won by the best horse always and Newton was wrong all this time with his apples.

gscully

Morgans wrote: »

The opinion of one man is decides how much weight Denman has to give to the rest of the field at the weekend. Dismissing them or saying that they should be taken with a pinch of salt betrays a misunderstanding of some of the basic fundamentals about racing, and even physics. The top rated horse does not win every race, but that isnt what ratings are for. Of course, you are free to misinterpret what ratings mean, that is your choice.

Pretty much what I was saying. Ratings are not a confirmation of a better horse, and anyone who looks at a horse's rating when studying form does so at their own peril. I used Menorah as an example of a horse who got a poor rating, despite winning a festival race, yet he starts the following season with an impressive win. In theory, the top-rated horse should win every time if it's not a handicap, yet we know that's not always the case as anything can happen. Long Run has had his ratings increased after last weekend's run, but I wouldn't be backing him at Cheltenham ever again!

Of course, you are free to misinterpret what I meant, that is your choice

Morgans

gscully wrote: »

Pretty much what I was saying. Ratings are not a confirmation of a better horse, and anyone who looks at a horse's rating when studying form does so at their own peril. I used Menorah as an example of a horse who got a poor rating, despite winning a festival race, yet he starts the following season with an impressive win. In theory, the top-rated horse should win every time if it's not a handicap, yet we know that's not always the case as anything can happen. Long Run has had his ratings increased after last weekend's run, but I wouldn't be backing him at Cheltenham ever again!

Of course, you are free to misinterpret what I meant, that is your choice

Ratings tell you what the horse achieved on the racecourse. Not the ability of the horse. The rating Menorah got was based on what he achieved on the racecourse. The supreme novice last year was very poor and until Menorah winning the greatwood, it was a very reasonable arguement to make.


Winner -
Menorah, beaten at Aintree before winning the Greatwood.

Get Me out of here - Beaten out of sight twice since (16l behind Tocca Ferro at Ascot and 23l at Cheltenham

Dunguib - beaten 2l at Chelt - 6th, beaten 16l by Hurricane Fly

Flat Out - beaten 9l - 2nd at punchestown to Blackstairmountain, wins Sligo hurlde by 1.5l

Spring jim - beaten 12l - 4th behind Captain Chris, beaten 12l. No show on the flat during the summer.

Fuilin - Beaten in 2 novice hurdles this year. No show on the flat during the summer.

It was a bad race. On Aintree form, General Miller would have won the Supreme had he entered it.

RichieLawlor

Your point is correct of course Morgans but some horses (Denman) are built to lump loads of weight and other horses who may or may not be of equal ability may not be. Which is why you don't always see all the top horses racing in handicaps of such high marks



IMO What a Friend would not have beaten Denman in last years Hennessy recieving 10 tonnes:p

yaboya1

Morgans wrote: »

Ratings tell you what the horse achieved on the racecourse. Not the ability of the horse. The rating Menorah got was based on what he achieved on the racecourse. The supreme novice last year was very poor and until Menorah winning the greatwood, it was a very reasonable arguement to make.


Winner -
Menorah, beaten at Aintree before winning the Greatwood.

Get Me out of here - Beaten out of sight twice since (16l behind Tocca Ferro at Ascot and 23l at Cheltenham

Dunguib - beaten 2l at Chelt - 6th, beaten 16l by Hurricane Fly

Flat Out - beaten 9l - 2nd at punchestown to Blackstairmountain, wins Sligo hurlde by 1.5l

Spring jim - beaten 12l - 4th behind Captain Chris, beaten 12l. No show on the flat during the summer.

Fuilin - Beaten in 2 novice hurdles this year. No show on the flat during the summer.

It was a bad race. On Aintree form, General Miller would have won the Supreme had he entered it.

Do you think so?
Maybe you should have a look at the Supreme result before making such a statement.

UrbanSea

Morgans wrote: »

Too much wrong with this. Learn about ratings. Things will become clearer. Do you not get it that if Denman can give 10 tonnes (jesus) to What A Friend and Imperial Commander beats Denman (running to the same level), then Imperial Commander can give 10 tonnes away to What A Friend. Ten year olds could come to this conclusion. Denman may have won at Newbury because he unseated, but again, form figures as they are before a horses name are utterly meaningless. Useless. The rating that he ran to would be far far far more informative. Winning the gold cup or a selling chase gets you a 1 before your name. What we do know about Newburty was that he was going to struggle to beat Tricky Trickster and Niche Market, rated about 30lbs below him. Both horses that were miles behind him in the Gold Cup, close enough to 30lbs to show that Denman ran as well as ever in the race. However, both horses were 30lbs behind Imperial Commander also. Again, this is ten year old stuff. Until you understand handicapping, you are only gasbagging on here. Ten tonnes. Im trying to help people understand where they need to make the next level of analysis. Im far from perfect, but I know that I stopped looking at the form figures before a horses name at age 12/13.

I'm perfectly aware of ratings, and the figure 'ten tonnes' was a slight exaggeration. I don't think Imperial Commander would have beaten What A Friend in that race off those weights,that's the point I'm making. Can I prove it no? But an opinion.
So if you don't look at form and just ratings,do you back the best weighted horse in say claimers,where the ratings are different to weights carried?

Morgans wrote: »

Ratings tell you what the horse achieved on the racecourse. Not the ability of the horse. The rating Menorah got was based on what he achieved on the racecourse. The supreme novice last year was very poor and until Menorah winning the greatwood, it was a very reasonable arguement to make.


Winner -
Menorah, beaten at Aintree before winning the Greatwood.

Get Me out of here - Beaten out of sight twice since (16l behind Tocca Ferro at Ascot and 23l at Cheltenham

Dunguib - beaten 2l at Chelt - 6th, beaten 16l by Hurricane Fly

Flat Out - beaten 9l - 2nd at punchestown to Blackstairmountain, wins Sligo hurlde by 1.5l

Spring jim - beaten 12l - 4th behind Captain Chris, beaten 12l. No show on the flat during the summer.

Fuilin - Beaten in 2 novice hurdles this year. No show on the flat during the summer.

It was a bad race. On Aintree form, General Miller would have won the Supreme had he entered it.

Good point.

yaboya1

Not really considering General Miller ran in the Supreme

UrbanSea

Aplogies,bar the last bit. Rest made sense.Hardly got a run for his money in the race.

RichieLawlor

yaboya1 wrote: »

Not really considering General Miller ran in the Supreme

Lol, your aware he fell at the very first obstacle i assume

yaboya1

Yes I am.
Just because he won at Aintree does not mean he would have won at Cheltenham if he stood up though.

RichieLawlor

greetings wrote: »

I'm perfectly aware of ratings, and the figure 'ten tonnes' was a slight exaggeration. I don't think Imperial Commander would have beaten What A Friend in that race off those weights,that's the point I'm making.

Good point.

Do you not see that if IC ran to his Gold Cup mark then he would have beaten What A Friend in that race.

yaboya1

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Do you not see that if IC ran to his Gold Cup mark then he would have beaten What A Friend in that race.

'If' being the operative word.
We are talking about a horse who has only ever won one race away from his beloved Cheltenham and has never run anywhere close to his Gold Cup mark on any occasion where he has run elsewhere.

Morgans

greetings wrote: »

I'm perfectly aware of ratings, and the figure 'ten tonnes' was a slight exaggeration. I don't think Imperial Commander would have beaten What A Friend in that race off those weights,that's the point I'm making. Can I prove it no? But an opinion.
So if you don't look at form and just ratings,do you back the best weighted horse in say claimers,where the ratings are different to weights carried?

Good point.

I dont just look at ratings. That would be silly. I do look at form. Ratings dont tell you a horse's well being on a given day, whether or not the horse is improving, how well it jumps, what ground it likes etc.

I dont look at the finishing places - absolutely meaningless.

There are occasions when they have some meaning, but its the exception. Forpadydeplasterer has finished second the last six times I think. Some would see it as a trait of an ungenuine horse. I think he has been beaten on merit each time and won the Arkle in a driving finish. What A Friend looks very reluctant under pressure - ran around under Sam Thomas when challenging Denman last year. And stuck his head in the air when winning at Aintree.

Finishing places are meaningless. It tells you nothing about the standard of the race, the horses that he beat, or how well the horse run.

You didnt answer my question. Would Denman be able to give Imperial Commander 2 stone if they were racing against each other this weekend? If not, how much weight would he give him. Remember, Imperial Commander beat Denman off level weights when they met.

Yes, ten tonnes was a slight exagerration.

Morgans

yaboya1 wrote: »

'If' being the operative word.
We are talking about a horse who has only ever won one race away from his beloved Cheltenham and has never run anywhere close to his Gold Cup mark on any occasion where he has run elsewhere.

Not even in this race last year at Haydock. What price would Kauto Star be in this race? 5/6?

Can anyone see how the horse is maybe a stone better when fresh? Or is it that people dont want to see.

mdwexford

Wow thread has gone nuts overnight.

RichieLawlor

Slightly off topic.

Rate as 1,2,3 the following performances in your opinion.

MasterMinded 2008 CC romp

Kauto Stars 190 King George

Denmans Hennessy last year

yaboya1

Morgans wrote: »

Not even in this race last year at Haydock. What price would Kauto Star be in this race? 5/6?

Can anyone see how the horse is maybe a stone better when fresh? Or is it that people dont want to see.

According to official ratings, no. He ran 11lbs below his Gold Cup mark here last year.

He is definitely a better horse fresh but I never argued that.

Morgans

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Your point is correct of course Morgans but some horses (Denman) are built to lump loads of weight and other horses who may or may not be of equal ability may not be. Which is why you don't always see all the top horses racing in handicaps of such high marks

This is slightly a pedantic point. But its something that should be corrected because it is repeated so often.

Kauto Star has done most of his winning carrying 11-12. Just like Denman. Anytime Kauto Star has beaten Denman he has carried 11-12. He can carry weight.

What he might not be able to do is give weight away as well as Denman to similar horses. And when the pressure comes on from a horse like Diamond Harry or Weird Al, Denman could possibly grind away when other horses would falter. There is no evidence to suggest Kauto Star wouldnt win. If Kauto Star ran off Denman's mark in last years HEnnessey, he would have been a handicap good thing. 6/4 fav to win.

And if Denman never ran in a handicap it would be harder to determine how good Kauto Star and Imperial Commander are.

Morgans

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Slightly off topic.

Rate as 1,2,3 the following performances in your opinion.

MasterMinded 2008 CC romp

Kauto Stars 190 King George

Denmans Hennessy last year

Its off topic alright, but its hardly controversial

KS, MM, Denman. Some arguement about the 2nd and 3rd. None about the first.

Morgans

yaboya1 wrote: »

According to official ratings, no. He ran 11lbs below his Gold Cup mark here last year.

He is definitely a better horse fresh but I never argued that.

Would that Haydock form be the best from the field tomorrow?

yaboya1

Morgans wrote: »

Would that Haydock form be the best from the field tomorrow?

Looks that way, but I never said he wouldn't win tomorrow either.
Somebody said if he ran up to his GC mark he would have beaten WAF in last years Hennessy the same way Denman did.
I said 'if' was the operative word.
I never mentioned tomorrows race.
Also if we're going to be pedantic Kauto Star has only ever beaten Denman once and he was carrying 11-10 when he did not 11-12

Goldcupfav

Correct me if im wrong but if this race was a handicap the weights would be

ATOUCHBETWEENACARA 8-7
CHIEF DAN GEORGE 9-4
IMPERIAL COMMANDER 11-12
NACARAT 10-0
PLANET OF SOUND 10-5
TIDAL BAY 10-0
WHAT A FRIEND 10-2

UrbanSea

Morgans wrote: »

I dont just look at ratings. That would be silly. I do look at form. Ratings dont tell you a horse's well being on a given day, whether or not the horse is improving, how well it jumps, what ground it likes etc.

I dont look at the finishing places - absolutely meaningless.

There are occasions when they have some meaning, but its the exception. Forpadydeplasterer has finished second the last six times I think. Some would see it as a trait of an ungenuine horse. I think he has been beaten on merit each time and won the Arkle in a driving finish. What A Friend looks very reluctant under pressure - ran around under Sam Thomas when challenging Denman last year. And stuck his head in the air when winning at Aintree.

Finishing places are meaningless. It tells you nothing about the standard of the race, the horses that he beat, or how well the horse run.

You didnt answer my question. Would Denman be able to give Imperial Commander 2 stone if they were racing against each other this weekend? If not, how much weight would he give him. Remember, Imperial Commander beat Denman off level weights when they met.

Yes, ten tonnes was a slight exagerration.

True,I'd avoid such a horse too. And I agree with what you mean about What A Friend,it looked for all the world like he would come with a winning run. At the same time,it wasn't any old top weight he was facing,Denman is a super horse.
Apolgogies I forgot about the question.
Well I think you'll agree it would depend on which Imperial Commander were to turn up. No Denman wouldn't beat him giving him 2 stone,that would silly to think he would. There are certain times I'd fancy Denman giving him say ten pounds(maybe in the Hennessy for example if Imperial Commander wasn't fresh) and obviously some times where level weights would be the fairest. I'd take Denman any day over Imperial Commander if he were receiving weight from him though.

RichieLawlor

NTD is the sole reason people can't take to IC like they do to other horses

UrbanSea

RichieLawlor wrote: »

NTD is the sole reason people can't take to IC like they do to other horses

That's probably true. Even if Kauto was with Nigel the public wouldn't love him like they do.

Goldcupfav

greetings wrote: »

That's probably true. Even if Kauto was with Nigel the public wouldn't love him like they do.

You have to throw the Ruby factor in there aswell your average mug punter thinks Ruby is GOD !!

RichieLawlor

Goldcupfav wrote: »

You have to throw the Ruby factor in there aswell your average mug punter thinks Ruby is GOD !!

Are you saying he's not?

God help us if Twiston Davies had Kauto. Who knows where he would have ended up,