White Xmas for Donegal? - 2010

Deer Hunter DL

i started this thread one year ago just thought i'd bump it up ,

so will we get a white one this year , i don't think so but then ya never no

livdmg

:cool:I'm Dreaming of a white Christmas :cool:

Harps

They're predicting another cold one over on the weather forum:)

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Time to confirm what I've been hinting at here and in the daily forecast thread.

My long-range seasonal outlook calls for colder than normal temperatures for most of the winter months, and higher than normal snowall amounts.

Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.

The January outlook calls for this cold to deepen for part of the month before a brief reversal indicated by some of the research index values. Therefore the month may feature some major winter storms mid-month as this pattern reversal begins. Despite the milder end, the month is likely to continue to average below normal by about the same amount as December, 1-2 C and possibly more.

February was less conclusive from the research index values but unless the January reversal is highly energetic, could see the blocking redeveloping and leading to a colder than normal February as well.

Given the strength of cold in the outlook and the dependence of mean winter temperatures on snow cover near the lower end of the spectrum, one cannot rule out a sort of near-extreme or even extreme outcome, since mean monthly temperatures below 2.0 tend to promote continuous snow cover and therefore a fairly easy slide down to sub-freezing values from the same air masses as are present for 2-3 C.

In other words, I'm predicting a cold winter with lots of snow, that could become an epic winter. Stay tuned.

One other detail to note, the storm frequency from my research should be on a fairly well-modulated 3.5-day cycle with stronger events every seven days or so (this is not exact so it won't work out to the same day every week). The stronger events are likely to produce their share of slow-moving but deep "Channel" or French lows promoting a strong east wind and outbreaks of snow. One of the better scenarios I foresee for snowfall comes with the December full moon and "northern max" event of 21 December. This is bound to produce an intense storm over western Europe and I am giving something like 2-1 odds for this to be a cold weather storm event with at least some snow or sleet in the mix for Ireland, whereas if the pattern happens to be stuck on mild then, look for a very mild and windy sort of event followed by much colder weather.

In general, through the mid-winter period, the stormy episodes will fall at full and new moons, and approximately mid-way between them with a second set of high-energy peaks. This pattern will continue into late winter but with the secondary energy peaks decoupling from the primary (full/new) this gives a more frequent distribution of storms that, if coupled with a cold pattern in February, could lead to a steady parade of disturbances around the southern flanks of blocking high pressure to the north and northeast.

Anyone interested in a more detailed forecast could find one later today on Net-weather posted by my research associate and friend, Blast from the Past as he is known to the weather forum world. That will be UK-centric but after all, the winter patterns are bound to be quite similar, and the general theme appears to be cold winning out over mild again this winter.

Looks like this pattern could be setting up gradually later this month, and I would not be surprised if there is some snow even in late November.

muffler

Above posts moved to new thread.

ednwireland

hope not - would like to get out of the house occassionaly (that or buy an old landrover)

muffler

There was a weather prediction made last year regarding the snow and ice and by some meteorological office or other based in Australia I think - Im open to correction on that. It made the news at the time as they had predicted the bad weather for Ireland apparently a couple of months before the event.

I read somewhere in the last week or two that have now predicted/forecast the same for this year. Hope they're wrong though.

henke

really hope this is not another housebound xmas. the snow is nice for a day or two but that is plenty

Deer Hunter DL

i hope its the same this year again i loved it

mrmac

Deer Hunter DL wrote: »

i hope its the same this year again i loved it

Have to agree, but then again, I didn't have to travel anywhere!

Durnish

Please God, no.
We were supposed to visit friends in Rosbeg but couldn't get there.

Musicman2000

Its looking very like last year, but with more snow, have a read threw the weather forum

UpDonegal

Read an article in paper 2day, think was the irish daily mail.

This winter's big freeze is starting early with a week long cold snap from sunday threatening ireland's first widespread snowfall as temps plummet to a cold -8C.
Forcasters said freezing air from the Artic will reduce daytime temps to 3C, with a severe -8C at night.
Experts said the weather system bringing the snow and sleet is the same one which brought last winter's White Christmas to ireland - meaning Christmas Day Snow is on the cards again this year.
Posititve weather solutions have warned that this winter will be almost as cold as last winter - Ireland's coldest since 1963.
"A cold snap lasting a week or longer starts on sunday, pushing south through the country with an increasing risk of frost and snow for ireland.
There is a chance of sleet & snow later next week as milder weather from the Atlantic tries to return, it will be a battle between mild & cold.
The pattern is similar to the one which brought wintry weather last december.
The medium range forcast shows pressure rising massively over Greenland, pushing mild Atlantic weather sytems south towards spain and leaving a cold air stream from the Artic over Ireland.
This type of weather pattern tends to repeat itself and is difficult to break down, so there is now an increased chance of a White Christmas this year.
Cold winters usually come in clusters. After two colder than average winters, we're in the middle of one of these clusters!

Domscard

Oh please - noooooooooooooooo, not again so soon! :( I just can't face that kind of weather a second time in one year. I had cabin fever for weeks from the 19th December until mid January and the one long trip out we HAD to make (family funeral ) was an absolute nightmare. It put years on me that I can ill afford at this time of my life.

Deer Hunter DL

looking like we could have some snow over the weekend

homer simpson

Deer Hunter DL wrote: »

looking like we could have some snow over the weekend

Heard up to -10 degrees too....bbbbbrrrrrrrrr...

Will need the longjohns for this rally in glenties! lol

irish1967

Do Irish rally teams have snow tyres?

Deer Hunter DL

they would do , the forestry gravel tyres they have would be nearly as good as snows but with out the spikes

homer simpson

irish1967 wrote: »

Do Irish rally teams have snow tyres?

:pac: It could be like a scene from ice road truckers, stopped before first stage putting on chains, There's almost defiantly going to be some ice, but it'll be 11 before it kicks off so most should be clear by then.

Is there snow forecast? i thought it was to be very cold but dry?

Harps

I follow the weather forum quite a bit this time of year and theyre saying its marginal at best for snow at lower levels. There'll definitely be some in the hills but nobody really knows yet for widespread snow

Theres going to be showers over the next few days and more widespread rain at the weekend. We had hail and a bit of sleet today so looking promising if its going to get colder yet!

UpDonegal

Click original link for audio.

Cold snap set to hit North West and Ulster this weekend!

It looks like it’s time to bring out the winter woollies again this week – with a major cold snap forecast for the next few days.

Met Eireann says the worst of the weather will be over the weekend – but it will hit first on Thursday.

The cold snap means snow and sleet will hit many parts of the country – but the North-west will be worst affected.

Ground temperatures are also expected to hit as low as minus ten degrees at night.

Vincent O’Shea of Met Eireann says the weekend will see the worst of the weather.

http://www.highlandradio.com/2010/11/23/cold-snap-set-to-hit-north-west-and-ulster-this-weekend/

Note on audio link he said theres a danger there could be snow in many areas over the weekend including lower levels.

ednwireland

snow on the bluestacks this morning

deerhunter got any old landrovers i can borrow

Cul a cnoic

Dusting of snow on Errigal now

Fracture

Snow & ice for me mean's buckets of cash on heating oil :mad:

muffler

Fracture wrote: »

Snow & ice for me mean's buckets of cash on heating oil :mad:

This is what you should be looking at

Domscard

I can't recommend extra layers of clothes enough if you want to save on the heating bills. Last winter (it seems like only yesterday ... oh wait, it really was only yesterday ) I had so much extra clothing on I looked like an indoor abominable snowman :eek: You know it's really cold when you find yourself walking around with the duvet wrapped around you all day on top of the extra layers!

muffler

The local BBC forecast doesnt look too healthy for Friday and Saturday

Scroll down to bottom of page for maps

Glenman

muffler wrote: »

The local BBC forecast doesnt look too healthy for Friday and Saturday

Scroll down to bottom of page for maps

I was thinking of bringing a friend up to Letterkenny this Saturday and doing some driving on Sunday, to Glenties on to Carrick and maybe out to Sliabh League. Sound like the roads could be icy this weekend and that such a trip may not be advisable? What do you think?

Deer Hunter DL

Glenman wrote: »

I was thinking of bringing a friend up to Letterkenny this Saturday and doing some driving on Sunday, to Glenties on to Carrick and maybe out to Sliabh League. Sound like the roads could be icy this weekend and that such a trip may not be advisable? What do you think?

well if the forcast it right i'd leave it till another time also there will be alot of cars on the road in the glenties area due to the Limelite mini stages taking place , i went to omagh this morning at half 7 it was bad enough , i heard that drimarone/letterbarrow was serious bad this morning

Glenman

Deer Hunter DL wrote: »

well if the forcast it right i'd leave it till another time also there will be alot of cars on the road in the glenties area due to the Limelite mini stages taking place , i went to omagh this morning at half 7 it was bad enough , i heard that drimarone/letterbarrow was serious bad this morning

Thanks, I might do that

Deer Hunter DL

no problem glenman ,

heres a little reminder of last year

Bluestacks




Mountcharles


Dummys Bridge


Ballydevit

.17hmr

Deer Hunter DL
love the photos ,you have the machine for that kind of weather nice jeep.

Durnish

hi, folks, is that rally going ahead/ the one round Glenties Portnoo?

homer simpson

Durnish wrote: »

hi, folks, is that rally going ahead/ the one round Glenties Portnoo?

sure is, so we dont go way off topic here if you want info PM me

Durnish

I meant with reference to the weather. Supposed to be a family trip, on Saturday from Belfast up to Glenties to check out possible wedding venues.

Getting rather worried, so I am.

homer simpson

Durnish wrote: »

I meant with reference to the weather. Supposed to be a family trip, on Saturday from Belfast up to Glenties to check out possible wedding venues.

Getting rather worried, so I am.

Well the only thing i would say is that if there is any snow tonight / tomorrow morning there will be a fair amount of traffic on the roads in that area so any snow should clear fairly fast, be careful though if ya do go

irish1967

Snowing on and off all morning here in Donegal Town. Not laying but it a good omen for a White Santa day

Deer Hunter DL

its starting to look like we could have a white one

Harps

Well at this stage its almost inevitable most of us will at least have snow on the ground for Christmas. A white Christmas means snowing on the day though which is still up in the air (no pun intended)

Looking very possible though as its probably going to be cold enough. There were actually some really generous odds last week for Derry, wish I'd stuck a tenner on it now :pac:

ednwireland

unless you look at the accuweather forecast ! which honestly at this point i hope are right. i'm dreaming of damp wet christmas

Deer Hunter DL

i think its safe to say we got a white one

muffler

Sure? Final answer?