Just heard the Minister for Social Protection on the radio...

Sandvich

Talking about cuts to welfare etc.

Apparently, there are going to be no major cuts across the board(the figures he gave were 20-30%, though was quiet when asked "What about 10%") but one issue that came up was heating costs for older people, apparently they don't want to pay the fuel allowance this year which seems a bit of a disgrace, given how many old people die from the cold.

After all this, I decided to send the minister an email giving a quick outline of the "Employment Subsidy" idea. It's a much better solution that chopping and cutting as it takes no real money out of the economy and encourages growth. Basically, the government instead of paying the full dole, pays part of it to a company to take someone on at (for them) less than minimum wage.

There are already half way points like this for people on disability I believe, so it seems like a fair extension of it. This is done elsewhere in Europe, and here where both the government and economy can't spare money, it seems like the best solution. Nothing "Has" to be cut this way.

If you agree, please drop the Minister's office a line and pop in the suggestion.

http://www.eamonocuiv.ie/get-in-touch

shocksy

20% - 30% would be an outrageous amount to take off the people on social welfare, not too mention the fuel allowance been taken away :mad:

Sand

20-30% would be about right I think for a one year cut. Probably with a maximum cap on the amount any family can get from welfare payments. By the end of the 4 year plan wed need to see roughly a 67% cut overall.

I think a lot of the OAP side payments like the fuel allowance, free travel and so on will be cut. The backbenchers are focusing on the old age pension so that will probably be left intact (Victory to the backbenchers!!!!) but every other benefit and tax break will be eliminated to compensate. Probably a better saving from eliminating the cost of administration of all those benefits and perks.

Count Dooku

Government cann’t decide anything about welfare cuts,
It will be markets, EU or IMF who will decide how big cuts should be
BTW, EU already thinks that Jobseeker’s Allowance is too generous and discouraging people from taking jobs

These concerns are compounded by the relatively generous and time-unlimited nature of Jobseeker’s Allowance, which provides weak incentives for work, especially for low-skilled workers.

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/14/37/45603074.pdf

podge3

Unfortunately both social welfare and the PS wage bill needs to be cut by about 40% to balance the books.

Mister men

If they take 30% off the unemployed prepare for wide scale unrest on the streets in the new year. Also get a gun to defend your property. I **** you not.

Mister men

podge3 wrote: »

Unfortunately both social welfare and the PS wage bill needs to be cut by about 40% to balance the books.

Agreed but will never happen.

zig

Mister men wrote: »

If they take 30% off the unemployed prepare for wide scale unrest on the streets in the new year. Also get a gun to defend your property. I **** you not.

In one budget, not a chance? over the next 4 years? expect about 40-45% thats if the IMF dont have their say first. Either way its gonna happen.

jimmycrackcorm

Mister men wrote: »

If they take 30% off the unemployed prepare for wide scale unrest on the streets in the new year. Also get a gun to defend your property. I **** you not.

Why? They'd be hoping back to what they got in the rarely par odd the decade which is not too far ago and more in line with the state income then.

Amhran Nua

Sandvich wrote: »

After all this, I decided to send the minister an email giving a quick outline of the "Employment Subsidy" idea. It's a much better solution that chopping and cutting as it takes no real money out of the economy and encourages growth. Basically, the government instead of paying the full dole, pays part of it to a company to take someone on at (for them) less than minimum wage.

This pretty much already exists with workfare and the wpp.

RichardAnd

Mister men wrote: »

If they take 30% off the unemployed prepare for wide scale unrest on the streets in the new year. Also get a gun to defend your property. I **** you not.

Unfortunately, gun laws in this country are too tight to allow us that option. If they weren't, the sale of personal firearms could be a nice business venture.

ROCKMAN

So a family of 4 getting €385 a week will have to life on €275 (30% cut) or is it 30% of the main claimer's payment which would bring it to €320ish
.......unreal in my opinion ....Cannot see that much of a cut TBH ....
honestly think the government are throwing these big numbers around so when the 6-10% I expect happens ,it will not seem so bad.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

ei.sdraob

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

They will be on the streets quite literary, working for their dole painting/cleaning etc ...

derossi

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

I doubt people had time to take to the streets back then, most people who wanted had employment. I suppose the main difference now is that people depend on that level of payment. You can't just have a devastating cut as 30% without it having a huge affect on the people that have come to depend on it through no fault to their own.

mike65

Whats the cumulative deflation of the last two years been?

ei.sdraob

mike65 wrote: »

Whats the cumulative deflation of the last two years been?

hmm, this might help

i put the CPI into Excel with 2006 at 100

fitz

Heard the interview on The Last Word, it was a €10/€20/€30 cut that was being discussed, not percentages.
Minister came across terribly.
Budget is a couple of weeks away and there have been no decisions yet?
Pull the other one...

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

P. Breathnach

Count Dooku wrote: »

Government cann’t decide anything about welfare cuts,
It will be markets, EU or IMF who will decide how big cuts should be
BTW, EU already thinks that Jobseeker’s Allowance is too generous and discouraging people from taking jobs


http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/14/37/45603074.pdf

The OECD does not speak for the EU.

P. Breathnach

shocksy wrote: »

20% - 30% would be an outrageous amount to take off the people on social welfare, not too mention the fuel allowance been taken away :mad:

O Cuiv said that cuts of that order were not being contemplated.

Sandvich

Count Dooku wrote: »

Government cann’t decide anything about welfare cuts,
It will be markets, EU or IMF who will decide how big cuts should be
BTW, EU already thinks that Jobseeker’s Allowance is too generous and discouraging people from taking jobs


http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/14/37/45603074.pdf

Did you notice the bit in my post that dealth with that?

Also, there are no jobs out there at the moment anyway. And we didn't have a particularly high unemployment before the recession(no higher than the UK's). So even if the EU are saying it, doesn't necessarily mean it's true.

Sandvich

By the way, people are parsing my post wrong - there are going to be no 20-30% cuts, or even cuts of 20 to 30 euros, he said.

A €20 cut would be fine, if we weren't in recession and people dealing with large personal debt... it really is a vicious circle.

who_ru

The Govt has a plan.

introduce minimal cuts to all welfare & pension recipients.

add perhaps 1% to income tax. Brian Lenihan already said there will be no more pay cuts for the public sector.

Budget will pass because not one Got TD or Minister believes for a minute that the bond markets will believe them no matter what they do or say. it's all a game now.

the cost of borrowing continues it's upward curve post budget. Govt resigns early next year. Election called and the opposition parties are left to call in IMF/EU bailout.

FF can rest easy & shamelessly tell the electorate (who are clueless for the most part) that no FF Govt ever called in the IMF/EU.

Lenihan says we have not lost economic sovereignty. Of course we have.

Sandvich

fitz wrote: »

Heard the interview on The Last Word, it was a €10/€20/€30 cut that was being discussed, not percentages.
Minister came across terribly.
Budget is a couple of weeks away and there have been no decisions yet?
Pull the other one...

Sorry, I was listening on the bus so bad hearing/memory struck me

Dannyboy83

Something people ignore is the effect on deflation.

A €30 cut to social welfare is going to push down the costs/rents across the board - You get less money into your hand, you also pay out less to get the same amount of goods/services.

Net change to individual = minimal.
Net change to national balance sheet = colossal improvement.

Implement that with the public sector wage bill also, and you will start to see everything balance out. Ireland becomes competitive again and new jobs are be created, then you can gradually raise taxes once recovery has started.

maninasia

ROCKMAN wrote: »

So a family of 4 getting €385 a week will have to life on €275 (30% cut) or is it 30% of the main claimer's payment which would bring it to €320ish
.......unreal in my opinion ....Cannot see that much of a cut TBH ....
honestly think the government are throwing these big numbers around so when the 6-10% I expect happens ,it will not seem so bad.

...or they could look for one job , between 2 people should be able to find one at least.

maninasia

derossi wrote: »

I doubt people had time to take to the streets back then, most people who wanted had employment. I suppose the main difference now is that people depend on that level of payment. You can't just have a devastating cut as 30% without it having a huge affect on the people that have come to depend on it through no fault to their own.

It's nothing to do with whose fault it is...it's just life. Ask anybody over 60 years old in Ireland...

maninasia

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Right so, tax the XXXX out of everybody else instead....let's drive all the productive people overseas.

senordingdong

Cuts across the board are not what's needed.

The system needs more sensible means testing.

ROCKMAN

maninasia wrote: »

...or they could look for one job , between 2 people should be able to find one at least.

With very young kids its not really 2 people looking as one is going to have to stay at home but anyway.........

I take it you have a job ,If so best of luck with that ... Yes you'd think it would be easy to find a job when two people are looking ,but the fact of the matter is the job market in Ireland has all but disappeared , with hundreds applying for the few jobs that do appear ,its an employers market at the moment and a hell of alots of these ever decreasing jobs are been filled/or earmarked long before they are advertised (by/for friends and family )
Quick example.. a large company in my profession decided to save costs and move one of their services back into the fold after years of sub contracting it out ,Anyway 2 lads ,I know in the profession had all but filled these positions BEFORE MY INTERVIEW DATE ,(company's way of appearing to stay within the law ) How I have nothing against the lads (they had the connections )and I 'd do the same if I got the chance.
Yes we'll keep applying and sending of CV's and anything else we can think of but I'm/we're not holding our breath ,

Count Dooku

Sandvich wrote: »

Also, there are no jobs out there at the moment anyway. And we didn't have a particularly high unemployment before the recession(no higher than the UK's).

Unemployment was hidden by construction boom
And it never will be so much well paid jobs for low quality workforce
the only choice is to half salaries for PS workers and start to transfer unemployed into public sector

Mr Benevolent

ei.sdraob wrote: »

They will be on the streets quite literary, working for their dole painting/cleaning etc ...

That was 2 1/2 years ago and it's still not in place. Check the article date.

Sandvich

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Something people ignore is the effect on deflation.

A €30 cut to social welfare is going to push down the costs/rents across the board - You get less money into your hand, you also pay out less to get the same amount of goods/services.

Net change to individual = minimal.
Net change to national balance sheet = colossal improvement.

Implement that with the public sector wage bill also, and you will start to see everything balance out. Ireland becomes competitive again and new jobs are be created, then you can gradually raise taxes once recovery has started.

That doesn't happen automatically or anything like it. It also requires a bit enough group of people to work - if most people were able to afford it, there is nothing about the provider of goods and services that says they HAVE to provide for the lowest earners, just as long as they turn a profit. They may have their own reasons for not being able to reduce profit margins.

Also things like heating are unlikely to go down and that's a big issue at the moment.

Sandvich

maninasia wrote: »

...or they could look for one job , between 2 people should be able to find one at least.

Honestly, do some people have any clue what's going on in this country at all? Really?

Sandvich

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

This is just so incorrect on two levels.

For a start, not saying people should go out with guns given a 30% drop in welfare, but the issue is such a large drop will make people scared and will perceive it as a loss. They won't think the same way you do, so some kind of fallout is likely. It shows a basic lack of understanding of human psychology to not get this - not everyone will think literally and practically, and of course, there is no guarantee the level of unemployment benefits from 2004 are appropriate now. There are a lot of people with a lot of debt to pay off. If people end up crippled by debt, that is not good for the economy, so good luck to the government trying to balance it's books down the road.

Second, why do people keep bringing up the UK system? First off it's not directly comparable, but there's also no guarantee it's any good. Maybe there are negative effects of having such a low welfare payout(such as poorer educational support, health, etc.) If a country gives no welfare, and people manage to survive somehow does that mean we should use it as an example? Well I'm sure would but I mean vaguely sensible people. Because people can survive on a certain amount does not mean it is appropriate. It's all rooted in the idea people on welfare are scroungers and inferior somehow, which is simply not true. People should be guaranteed some basic quality of life in this day and age, and it IS something we can do if we cop on a bit.

Sand

People should be guaranteed some basic quality of life in this day and age

No, they should be guaranteed help to help themselves.

maninasia

Sandvich wrote: »

Honestly, do some people have any clue what's going on in this country at all? Really?

If they can't find one job between two adults...any type of job..then they a problem. I'm serious, or else leave the country. I left the country years ago and never got one cent of social welfare where I live. I have a family too. Just take life in your own hands. I sympathise but sympathy doesn't pay the bills or make things better.

flutered

maninasia wrote: »

If they can't find one job between two adults...any type of job..then they a problem. I'm serious, or else leave the country.

how can you go on about the jobs market, when you do not reside here,
can it not be possible that people can not, or will not emigrate, your two people could have a morgage /kids et al, bankcrupcy laws in this country are darconian, just ask that drumm geezer, why did he choose the US not ireland to become bankrupt.

ei.sdraob

Confab wrote: »

That was 2 1/2 years ago and it's still not in place. Check the article date.

Yeh

Tho' there was a peace on BBC about workfare being introduced again Con/Libs seem determined this time

murphaph

Sandvich wrote: »

Second, why do people keep bringing up the UK system? First off it's not directly comparable, but there's also no guarantee it's any good. Maybe there are negative effects of having such a low welfare payout(such as poorer educational support, health, etc.) If a country gives no welfare, and people manage to survive somehow does that mean we should use it as an example? Well I'm sure would but I mean vaguely sensible people. Because people can survive on a certain amount does not mean it is appropriate. It's all rooted in the idea people on welfare are scroungers and inferior somehow, which is simply not true. People should be guaranteed some basic quality of life in this day and age, and it IS something we can do if we cop on a bit.

Use Germany then....€354 a month after 12 months.

You appear desperate not to accept that Irish benefits are amongst the highest in Europe, despite us being the most buggered country in Europe.

As for this line:

Because people can survive on a certain amount does not mean it is appropriate

What the hell are you talking about? That's entirely appropriate for a completely broke state.

wicorthered

The fact a guy who has never worked or tried to get a job in his life gets the same payment as a guy who had worked hard all his life and lost his job six months ago is a disgrace.

I think there should be a general SW cut (5-10%) in Dec ,current levels are unsustainable. Then from the next budget a payment scale is introduced. So if you are a over a year on the dole you lose 10% two years 20% and so on down to a basic dole of 50%. This would provide a huge incentive to find work and the people who couldn't have been bothered finding work when it was plentiful wouldn't continue to get a free ride.

Obviously payments such as the OAP and Carers allowance should be protected as these people cant get work and in the OAPs case they have paid their dues and Carers save the state millions every years.

More vigorous policing of women claiming lone parent allowance is needed. I know countless cases where the state is paying the rent yet the live in boyfriend has a well paid job. If this is cracked down on, genuine lone parents struggling by won't have to be cut.

Peanut

Sandvich wrote: »

That doesn't happen automatically or anything like it. It also requires a bit enough group of people to work - if most people were able to afford it, there is nothing about the provider of goods and services that says they HAVE to provide for the lowest earners, just as long as they turn a profit.

You're right, it needs a big enough group of people to work, which is why reducing state expenditure in areas like rent relief etc. would be one of the best ways to achieve this lowering of costs. It doesn't need to be a single large cut though - a staggered reduction would give the market time to adapt.

Sandvich wrote: »

They may have their own reasons for not being able to reduce profit margins.

A lack of customers tends to focus the mind on the asking price.

yermanoffthetv

wicorthered wrote: »

The fact a guy who has never worked or tried to get a job in his life gets the same payment as a guy who had worked hard all his life and lost his job six months ago is a disgrace.

I think there should be a general SW cut (5-10%) in Dec ,current levels are unsustainable. Then from the next budget a payment scale is introduced. So if you are a over a year on the dole you lose 10% two years 20% and so on down to a basic dole of 50%. This would provide a huge incentive to find work and the people who couldn't have been bothered finding work when it was plentiful wouldn't continue to get a free ride.

Obviously payments such as the OAP and Carers allowance should be protected as these people cant get work and in the OAPs case they have paid their dues and Carers save the state millions every years.

More vigorous policing of women claiming lone parent allowance is needed. I know countless cases where the state is paying the rent yet the live in boyfriend has a well paid job. If this is cracked down on, genuine lone parents struggling by won't have to be cut.

Its all well and good saying cut the dole 50% if there were actually jobs for the unemployed to go into but there isnt.It probably would have worked when we had full employment but not now. Any cuts to social welfare should be matched by job creation schemes otherwise you are just taking money out of the enconomy and the retail and services sector will be hit hard....vicious cycle continues.

We also have a hideously outdated SW system that opperates on the number of days you work not the amount of hours. If somebody picks up a few hours here and there over the week they will be booted off the dole which is a disencentive to work and encourages people to work "off the books". I would say though other allowances should be limited to a maximum per person.Child benifit needs fixing too. Limit payments to 3 children scaled from 100% for the first child to 50% for the third.

Also, bollox to not cutting the pension. €230pw+free utilities/medical cover is extremely generous. The cost of living is coming down, €200pw+allowances is a reasonable ammount for an OAP to live on considering the vast majority have very low living expenses and as a demographic tend to save rather than spend. You should bring in an income threshold aswell for free services. Carers allowance I actually agree should not be cut, caring for an ill/disabled family member is difficult enough as it is and the HSE are next to useless for support.

ArtSmart

podge3 wrote: »

Unfortunately both social welfare and the PS wage bill needs to be cut by about 40% to balance the books.

nothing personal podge, but WTF?

hands up how many people would accept a 40% but in their NET income with a shrug of the shoulders and a 'ah well'?

'unfortunately' isnt the word.

ArtSmart

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

can we please stop the casual comparisons with the UK FFS.

unless you know the full UK SW benefits and UK cost of living figures.

and if you do

link them.

ninty9er

maninasia wrote: »

Right so, tax the XXXX out of everybody else instead....let's drive all the productive people overseas.

Where are they going to go?? There are no jobs, it's not a uniquely Irish issue.

In relation to comparisons, here's one I did in 2008 showing the Child Benefit variance for a family with 4 kids in Ireland vs UK. It'd pay almost a year on the average mortgage. That's ridiculous and shows just how good Irish welfare recipients have had it over the past 5 years. The Variance on Child Benefit alone for that family with 4 kids is over €5,000...€9,500 if 2 were under 6 at the time.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=55389070&postcount=48

danbohan

ArtSmart wrote: »

can we please stop the casual comparisons with the UK FFS.

unless you know the full UK SW benefits and UK cost of living figures.

and if you do

link them.

keep going you have only half covered your head in the sand yet , what the hell has cost living got to do with anything , we have an inflated cost of living created by a false boom based on nothing but credit , i am sure imf/ eu wont be taking too much of that on board .

murphaph

ninty9er wrote: »

Where are they going to go?? There are no jobs, it's not a uniquely Irish issue.

Don't believe all your party's hype FFS. Germany is coming out of recession quite nicley. There are shortages of all sorts of skilled labour here.

ninty9er

murphaph wrote: »

Don't believe all your party's hype FFS. Germany is coming out of recession quite nicley. There are shortages of all sorts of skilled labour here.

And how many Irish people fit the necessary person specs?

Don't patronise me with "hype" that says Germany is coming out of recession, for the last 2 years the high horse brigade here have been denying recessions everywhere but Ireland.

Is Germany short of quarter of a million construction workers? Didn't think so.

murphaph

ninty9er wrote: »

And how many Irish people fit the necessary person specs?

Don't patronise me with "hype" that says Germany is coming out of recession, for the last 2 years the high horse brigade here have been denying recessions everywhere but Ireland.

Is Germany short of quarter of a million construction workers? Didn't think so.

But you accept that there are plenty of jobs available in Germany?

I hear Polish voices as I pass by construction sites here, so I guess they have a shortage of construction workers too, now that you mention it. Anyway, these ex builders will have to reskill. They should never have fallen for the "soft landing" FF bullsh!t they were fed but there you go.