Will the budget pass ?

Denzil2222

If SF win the Donegal bye election then all it will take is two FF tds to jump ship, also at least two FF back bench tds are in very ill heath so i think there is a very good chance we will have an election the first week of the new year.

Ludo

Evening Echo says no:

http://www.eveningecho.ie/news/ireland/minister-says-budget-will-be-defeated-480607.html

I can't see it being voted down though myself. Pass it then kick FF out for once and for all early next year.

HarryPotter41

Denzil2222 wrote: »

If SF win the Donegal bye election then all it will take is two FF tds to jump ship, also at least two FF back bench tds are in very ill heath so i think there is a very good chance we will have an election the first week of the new year.

I can't see Fine Gael refusing to offer a pair for a TD in very ill health so they shouldn't come into the equation. My thinking is the budget will pass but that there will be an election in the first 6 months of next year

PeakOutput

Denzil2222 wrote: »

If SF win the Donegal bye election then all it will take is two FF tds to jump ship, also at least two FF back bench tds are in very ill heath so i think there is a very good chance we will have an election the first week of the new year.

the two independants could jump ship too and thats probably more likely

i do think it will pass though, i do think it probably should pass but i also think we need a general election asap.

ideally i think there should be a general election the new goverment should give us the super harsh budget after being voted in (i think the public would find that easier to swallow then ff doing it now) and then that new goverment has 4 or five years of governing after making the big hard choice to show us why they should stay in office

annoyingbeast

i hope it doesnt pass, unless its bringing justice on the people who caused the crisis, I for one will be outside the dail protesting that day, doing everything in my power to stop it.

PeakOutput

annoyingbeast wrote: »

i hope it doesnt pass, unless its bringing justice on the people who caused the crisis, I for one will be outside the dail protesting that day, doing everything in my power to stop it.

and thus further destroying the country fair play to you keep up the good uninformed work

HarryPotter41

annoyingbeast wrote: »

i hope it doesnt pass, unless its bringing justice on the people who caused the crisis, I for one will be outside the dail protesting that day, doing everything in my power to stop it.

And your plan to arrest the deficit?

Atlantic Dawn

Opposition want it passed as much as FF, why do you think it took SF to go to the High Court for the Donegal By-Election, it was the last thing FG or Labour wanted. To go in to government clearing up someone elses mess is easier than making your own.

PeakOutput

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Opposition want it passed as much as FF, why do you think it took SF to go to the High Court for the Donegal By-Election, it was the last thing FG or Labour wanted. To go in to government clearing up someone elses mess is easier than making your own.

they do want ff to pass the budget but thats cause its going to be ****ing hard on everyone but they know its what has to happen. if they didnt think it was necessary they would be up in absolute arms abou tit happening before a general election

as it is they are making token calls for an election and as soon as the budget is passed these will be seriously amped up

this budget is not going to make a mess of the economy its going to go a big way to fixing it hopefully but that dosnt mean ff should spend one more day in office

Mr.Micro

It will get through IMO as the whole cross party talks were for that. No party FG, Labour or SF want to be the party that is blamed by FF for stopping the saving of our economy. So its all agreed IMO. If it works it will be a new Government that takes the credit and if it fails it will be down to FF/Greens.

I hope that we do get a new Government soon and I hope to see the FF party wiped out or at least vastly reduced and the Greens total wipe out, but as this is Ireland none of the above may happen.

Duckytech

annoyingbeast wrote: »

i hope it doesnt pass, unless its bringing justice on the people who caused the crisis, I for one will be outside the dail protesting that day, doing everything in my power to stop it.

What actually will happen if the Budget isn't passed?

Will the Government get another chance to go back to the drawing board and free up money to satisfy Jackie Boy and his shopping list in Kerry

Pressure will be on Inde's to put up or shut up for their electrate. I dont think they will, or indeed have the balls, to stop it passing.

Ludo

Duckytech wrote: »

What actually will happen if the Budget isn't passed?

Will the Government get another chance to go back to the drawing board and free up money to satisfy Jackie Boy and his shopping list in Kerry

Nope...if it is voted down, there has to be an election some time before roughly the 8th jan at the latest by law. Budget vote failure dissolves the govt. Not sure of the exact number of days allowed...28 or 30 I think plus public holidays or something like that.

Duckytech

Ludo wrote: »

Nope...if it is voted down, there has to be an election some time before roughly the 8th jan at the latest by law. Budget vote failure dissolves the govt. Not sure of the exact number of days allowed...28 or 30 I think plus public holidays or something like that.

Didnt know that..has this ever happened before in Irish Politics?

Im no FF'er by any means, but I would be worried if this happens.

I wouldnt mind if the opposition had any potiential but it really worries and sickens me to see the carry on of all parties in the Dail every day. The overexposure from the media and press only highlights the fact that there is noone there who you could honestly put your trust or faith into.

I hope it passes as i reckon the sooner this budget kicks in and we swallow it, the sooner we can get out of this mess.

Redshift

Duckytech wrote: »

Didnt know that..has this ever happened before in Irish Politics?

Garrett Fitzgerald's goverment fell on the budget in 1982

liammur

I hope the budget does go through, and dissolve FF as a party immediately after it.

johngalway

liammur wrote: »

I hope the budget does go through, and dissolve FF as a party immediately after it.

While I don't like what's on the way, €6bn seems a bargain if we could actually get rid of FF for good.

Wishful thinking unfortunately.

Pat "The Cope" (WTF?) Gallagher was talking the last day about not coming back for the Donegal by election. Blathering on about "loyalty to the party" like it was the be all and end all of the entire world. They're a bloody cult not a political party.

hallelujajordan

I don't think the government will have any difficulty passing the budget regardless, but wasn't it said earlier this week that the opposition plan to abstain rather than vote against the government. If this happens, the government can afford to lose the dissidents and the budget will still pass.

Duiske

If this budget did not pass the consequences would be dire, and the opposition know that. The money markets would go mental.
A vote to pass the budget will not save the Goverment though, because I firmly believe the Greens will pull the plug as soon as the legislation for the directly elected Dublin mayor has gone through.
They know it would be political suicide to hang on with FF for the rest of the term. My guess would be that they have a scandal up their sleeves, will use it to get out around end Feb/early March, and General election will be early/mid April.

Dannyboy83

Don't see any reason why TDs would vote against it.

This is their only chance to preserve the Gravy Train.

If it doesn't pass, then it's default time/cleanup time.

I fully expect FG/Labour will have someone on their own side abstain if FF/Greens/Indp cannot establish by themselves.
Michael Noonan is already on record as saying the €6 billion cut is prudent while the lack of job creation is not.

liammur

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Don't see any reason why TDs would vote against it.

This is their only chance to preserve the Gravy Train.

If it doesn't pass, then it's default time/cleanup time.

I fully expect FG/Labour will have someone on their own side abstain if FF/Greens/Indp cannot establish by themselves.
Michael Noonan is already on record as saying the €6 billion cut is prudent while the lack of job creation is not.

It's galling that 1 of our best politicians, noonan, is 65. Most people are retiring at that age. What's wrong with our politicial system.

Coillte_Bhoy

Duiske wrote: »

If this budget did not pass the consequences would be dire, and the opposition know that. The money markets would go mental.
.

It eont make much difference cos we are not going back to the markets for a few months anyway. So if the budget falls then a new Govt with a big stable majority will be in place early in the New Year with a mandate.

Coillte_Bhoy

liammur wrote: »

I hope the budget does go through, and dissolve FF as a party immediately after it.

Right. very realistic that isnt it?

Sand

Im surprised there isnt an attempt being made to patch up a deal between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael/Labour, whereby Fianna Fail agree to allow the opposition input into the Budget, and as part of the deal for voting for it Fianna Fail agree to a general election in January/February.

That way the opposition can vote for the budget but can deflect the inevitable confused criticism by saying it was A) the only responsible course of action to take brought about the early general election the people have been crying out for.

Meanwhile, Fianna Fail take the hiding theyre going to get and step across to the opposition benches where they can pretend everything is FG/Labours fault...

Honestly, its got to be a better option than trying to buy the likes of Healy-Rae and his ilk.

PeakOutput

Sand wrote: »

Im surprised there isnt an attempt being made to patch up a deal between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael/Labour, whereby Fianna Fail agree to allow the opposition input into the Budget, and as part of the deal for voting for it Fianna Fail agree to a general election in January/February.

id be very suprised if they did this

by abstaining from the vote they can say they didnt vote against it if things go well and if things go **** they have a way to doom ff to the opposition for many elections to come

they dont want anything to do with this budget but they cant be seen to be against the cuts either

i think i heard cowen say that we are gong back to the markets in january or febuary in which case a failed budget would mean there would be elections going on right at the time which would be disastrous for us

liammur

Sand wrote: »

Honestly, its got to be a better option than trying to buy the likes of Healy-Rae and his ilk.

Correct, but this is effectively what the greens are doing with projects like MN. What's the difference between Healy-rae looking for a tralee by-pass and the greens looking for MN for their supprt?

Sand

Its more than a little childish to abstain though. Is anyone seriously fooled by them abstaining? Its just a get out from the responsibility of having a view on the budget and fiscal situation our country finds itself in.

If they seriously disagreed with the budget, vote against it. You cant abstain from the vote and then denounce the budget as a terrible assault on the most vulnerable in society, a symbol of the governments failure and so on. If they are abstaining because theyre afraid the budget might not pass then its just a sign of their own cowardice and inability to lead.

The best option is to

- Participate in the budget planning
- Vote for it on the grounds that its a harsh budget, but totally necessary.
- Get the General Election pledge for January/February 2011 as part of the deal.

Then they can go to the people having nullified Fianna Fails only claim of note: that they are willing and able to make the tough decisions needed. If a general election comes and FG/Labour have abstained when tough decisions are needed, disenfranchising the people who voted for them, then FG/Labour will be vulnerable to the charge that when it comes to the tough decisions FG/Labour run and hide.

liammur

Sand wrote: »

Its more than a little childish to abstain though. Is anyone seriously fooled by them abstaining? Its just a get out from the responsibility of having a view on the budget and fiscal situation our country finds itself in.

If they seriously disagreed with the budget, vote against it. You cant abstain from the vote and then denounce the budget as a terrible assault on the most vulnerable in society, a symbol of the governments failure and so on. If they are abstaining because theyre afraid the budget might not pass then its just a sign of their own cowardice and inability to lead.

The best option is to

- Participate in the budget planning
- Vote for it on the grounds that its a harsh budget, but totally necessary.
- Get the General Election pledge for January/February 2011 as part of the deal.

Then they can go to the people having nullified Fianna Fails only claim of note: that they are willing and able to make the tough decisions needed. If a general election comes and FG/Labour have abstained when tough decisions are needed, disenfranchising the people who voted for them, then FG/Labour will be vulnerable to the charge that when it comes to the tough decisions FG/Labour run and hide.

Most people are quite stupid. They will look at who made the tough decisions, (not at why they had to made ) and vow never to vote for them again. That is why the opposition are wary.

BillShorey

Personally I don't understand the rush for a General Election? It will cost the state an awful lot of money at a time we don't have money to spend, and we have no really viable opposition to put into Government?

The opposition parties here are an absolute farce and I pray that I never see the day any of them make it into power in this country. The absolute worst thing we could do right now is put Fine Gael into Government. A leader who the country has no respect for and a party full of people out to serve themselves and no one else, despite their hilarious claims. Initiatives which they can provide no financial budget for, have any measured expected results from yet sound great on paper. We can't afford to put such a mess into Government at this point.

Labour are the only possible opposition party worth electing currently but I honestly don't think they're up to the job. They're too connected to the "powerful" unions in this country to ever bring about the changes that are necessary. Additionally I hope to never see Ivana Bacik in any meaningful seat in our Government. The prospect frightens me. Gilmore, however, would be a much better leader than Enda Clueless Kenny. The rest aren't even worth discussing.

So, I honestly don't understand this "Let's get the budget through and then hold a General Election". It's the last thing the country needs and given the emotional effect that the budget will bring, it'll mean rash, reactionary decisions are made and we'll end up with an even worse situation politically as a result.

I suppose, at the end of the day, at least we can look forward to the intervention of the IMF and the absolute slashing our civil and public service is going to take as a result.

In response to the question of whether the budget will pass; Well, it has to, doesn't it?

unit 1

Sand wrote: »

Im surprised there isnt an attempt being made to patch up a deal between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael/Labour, whereby Fianna Fail agree to allow the opposition input into the Budget, and as part of the deal for voting for it Fianna Fail agree to a general election in January/February.

That way the opposition can vote for the budget but can deflect the inevitable confused criticism by saying it was A) the only responsible course of action to take brought about the early general election the people have been crying out for.

Meanwhile, Fianna Fail take the hiding theyre going to get and step across to the opposition benches where they can pretend everything is FG/Labours fault...

Honestly, its got to be a better option than trying to buy the likes of Healy-Rae and his ilk.

I'm sorry but I can't agree with you. The budget should be about doing what's right for the country, and as FF have their own ideas on how to do this pandering to any opposition ideas is wrong. For good or bad it is up to those in power to make the decisions, and if the public don't like them it's up to the public to punish them at the appropiate time. They should make decisions,(hopefully the right ones) not manage them to avoid post apocolypse derision or blambe.
FF however have skilfully roped the opposition into the budgetary process, which Kenny frankly should never have allowed to happpen, as is his perogative while he is in opposition, and have contaminated them in an effort to absolve themselves for the ge after next so they can get back into power in order to get nama to resell all our assets back to their cronies. Don't forget this is Ireland and the above scenario is a real possibility.

PeakOutput

i dont understand peoples opinion that labour is the only viable alternative, just because they are on the left does not make them any better or worse leaders then fg or ff

fg have been in power before and the world didnt end then it wont end this time

labour would be the worst people to have a majority but i dont mind them being the minority power in a coalition

the important thing is to get rid of ff so there is seen to be some sort of punishment for the mess that has been the last few years

BillShorey

PeakOutput wrote: »

i dont understand peoples opinion that labour is the only viable alternative, just because they are on the left does not make them any better or worse leaders then fg or ff

fg have been in power before and the world didnt end then it wont end this time

labour would be the worst people to have a majority but i dont mind them being the minority power in a coalition

the important thing is to get rid of ff so there is seen to be some sort of punishment for the mess that has been the last few years

If we are going to start punishing people, where do we draw the line? I do find the concept amusing, because if we are to punish one (in this case, the Government) then we must punish all including everyone who foolishly borrowed and now cannot repay, the staff who facilitated and sold loans, those who demanded excessive pay rises...basically everyone who made a "mistake" that the country now has to pay for.

The concept of "punishing" people for what has happened is foolish, however if we are to start doing so we must continue through the line down to those on the streets who played their part.

Biggins

Denzil2222 wrote: »

If SF win the Donegal bye election then all it will take is two FF tds to jump ship, also at least two FF back bench tds are in very ill heath so i think there is a very good chance we will have an election the first week of the new year.

I read this post yesterday and took some time to think it over.

I believe "yes" it will pass - for a number of reasons.

* FF know they have to be seen do something for the sake of what left of their name and reputation (I won't start on what's left of their good reputation!).

* EVERYONE knows (regardless of where blame lies and/or who will pay ultimately the most) that very tough measures have to be imposed.

* FG/Labour know tough measures have to be imposed.

*FG/Labour most certainly don't want to be seen as the ones inflicting those measures - or at least the toughest of them in the first round of the four year budgets to come, so they will (for saving public face) state they will pass them through for the sake of the country (lesser of two evils), they might say that "there will be adjustments to the measures when we take office" to cover themselves, try show us all that still FF are at fault and that they would/will do things different!

* The independents will have been bought/"persuaded" so they will vote with their purchasers FF.

PeakOutput

BillShorey wrote: »

If we are going to start punishing people, where do we draw the line? I do find the concept amusing, because if we are to punish one (in this case, the Government) then we must punish all including everyone who foolishly borrowed and now cannot repay, the staff who facilitated and sold loans, those who demanded excessive pay rises...basically everyone who made a "mistake" that the country now has to pay for.

The concept of "punishing" people for what has happened is foolish, however if we are to start doing so we must continue through the line down to those on the streets who played their part.

i agree that it needs to be carried down the line and i think to a large extent it has been

people with mortgages they cant pay deserve(maybe deserve is a strong word) to suffer the consequences, if that means losing their home so be it

developers who over stretched themselves deserve to suffer the consequences(they are / will)

the share holders of the banks have suffered by one being nationalised and the others values tanking

the people in charge of the banks(at least at the very top) have been fired

the individual workers in the banks? hmm not sure about that they are given terms and conditions that must be met before a loan can be approved. they follow the rules put in place by the higher ups not sure if they deserve any 'punishment'

the financial regulator has lost his job

the civil servants have gotten pay cuts and there is more to come and the general population of the country has been affected by unemployment and social welfare cuts

so to me it seems that everyone has been affected negatively / punished in some way for the actins of the last 20 years accept for the ff goverment(they took a pay cut sure) as their level of incompetance surely deserves a long period on the opposition benches. when none of the ministers and senior party members are involved in ff anymore ill consider voting for them again(if im in the country which is doubtfull tbh)

edit; also i use the word punishment as that is what the masses seem to want my own personal opinion is that its simply them suffering the consequences of their actions just like everyone else i have mentioned has suffered the consequences of their actions

ArmaniJeanss

Maybe the FG TDs who aren't standing for re-election (are there any?) could abstain to ensure it passes, whilst FG as a party could officially vote against it. Bit messy maybe.

thebman

I think its a tough one, the party that supports the budget gets immediate credit for ensuring stability and it would be a good sign to the markets that when push comes to shove, Irish political parties can put aside their differences to ensure the right decisions are made for the country.

However, since an election will almost immediately follow the budget, the party that does will be on the backfoot if they are the only ones to support it.

Abstaining is not really an option IMO but I think if FG and Labour both supported it, it would nullify any negative consequences for both parties should an election be held and FF will still be doomed as the bringers of the budget and crisis in the first place so it is probably the best option that all parties agree to support it so that SF and independants can't throw curve balls.

recedite

There is no problem for the opposition if they abstain, only benefits;

1. FF get the blame (people won't be giving credit for this when they see how much they lose)

2. Some current FF TD's will be Independents soon afterwards.

3. After the initial anti FF backlash and the General Election, the budget can be modified afterwards to suit the new government.

4. FG/Labour can start off on a more sound financial footing, compared to if they took over now.

5. Jackie H Rae's promissory notes can then be binned.

the groutch

it's hard to see the value in the opposition letting the finance bill pas if they're going to be effectively tearing it up when they get into power in a few months

PeakOutput

the groutch wrote: »

it's hard to see the value in the opposition letting the finance bill pas if they're going to be effectively tearing it up when they get into power in a few months

they wont be though

they know its necessary but they dont want anything to do with the publicity of passing it

Vim Fuego

PeakOutput wrote: »

they wont be though

they know its necessary but they dont want anything to do with the publicity of passing it

This annoys me though, thinking of their own PR rather than what should be done. It's like saying "FF are actually taking the right steps, we'll just go along with it, thanks for the votes".

Seems like a pretty cheap get-off to me.

hallelujajordan

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Maybe the FG TDs who aren't standing for re-election (are there any?) could abstain to ensure it passes, whilst FG as a party could officially vote against it. Bit messy maybe.

Why would they do that ? FG should either support the Finance Bill as a party or oppose it as a party, based entirely on what is in the bill . .

This really is too serious to be playing party politics with

Buford T Justice

BillShorey wrote: »

Personally I don't understand the rush for a General Election? It will cost the state an awful lot of money at a time we don't have money to spend, and we have no really viable opposition to put into Government?

The opposition parties here are an absolute farce and I pray that I never see the day any of them make it into power in this country. The absolute worst thing we could do right now is put Fine Gael into Government.

That has to be the worst reasoning for keeping FF in power that I have ever heard. They should stay because we don't have anyone better? FF have been in power for a long time, so how exactly do we know that we don't have anyone better? Because Kenny has the personality of a plank? Seriously, look at what FF have presided over:
Some of the richest times this country has ever seen, along with some of the most corrupt dealing and reckless spending that this state has ever seen. They didn't put one red cent away during this time and and had the cheek to tell the country that house prices wouldn't fall, there would be no recession even when every economist in the country was screaming from the rooftops.

Bertie Ahern had the Gaul to give himself a pay increase of the average industrial wage and told the rest of the country that they needed to tighten their belts and stop looking for pay increases. Typical self preservation of FF if you ask me.

I very much doubt that any new Government could do a worse job than they have done.

PeakOutput wrote: »

people with mortgages they cant pay deserve(maybe deserve is a strong word) to suffer the consequences, if that means losing their home so be it

Really?? The people that were told by the government that now is the time to buy, and that grossly inflated house prices that they allowed to happen wouldn't fall? Banks that gave away money too easily to people to allow them to buy, none of them hold any responsibility for this??

People who have been made redundant or lost their job in the last few years as a result of the sorry state of this country, they deserve to suffer the loss of their house do they? Would it be their fault they lost their jobs???

recedite

The choice is really between Ollie Rehn and Angela Merkel telling a FF Minister of Finance what to do, or the same pair telling a FG/Labour Minister of Finance what to do.

The latter is preferable, because the people who got us into this mess should not be allowed to continue to enjoy the perks and privileges of being "in power".

PeakOutput

Fingers McGee wrote: »

Really?? The people that were told by the government that now is the time to buy, and that grossly inflated house prices that they allowed to happen wouldn't fall? Banks that gave away money too easily to people to allow them to buy, none of them hold any responsibility for this??

you must have missed the rest of the post that you quoted, try it again sure and get back to me