Breeders Cup Friday/Saturday

mike65

My picks for the "big six" on day one.

Precision Break
Winter Memories
Evening Jewel
A Z Warrior
Midday
Blind Luck

shaggykev

I like the look of Precision Break & Midday but I'm starting to get put off for two points

one: Everyone else seems to fancy Precision Break aswell, tipped up in racing post


two: Ladbrokes seems to be out to get Midday, went 6/4 this morning and now stan james/betpack have her 6/4 for the next hour. Why so big

They must fancy her not to act on the really firm ground and expect her to jar on it

I'm always pessimistic when ladbrokes go really big on a horse

scopper

9/1 on Precision Break is a good price (on PP) but I'd be wary. Worth an e/w bet but I'd keep my eye on the markets too. I suspect that the backing of Precision will begin to waver soon. Some good place value bets going too: Acoma in the 11.30 is 14/1 and Harmonious is currently 7/1 in the 22.50.

mailburner

shaggykev wrote: »

I like the look of Precision Break & Midday but I'm starting to get put off for two points

one: Everyone else seems to fancy Precision Break aswell, tipped up in racing post


two: Ladbrokes seems to be out to get Midday, went 6/4 this morning and now stan james/betpack have her 6/4 for the next hour. Why so big

They must fancy her not to act on the really firm ground and expect her to jar on it

I'm always pessimistic when ladbrokes go really big on a horse

that caught my eye also when lads were biggest as i was planning to have
a decent bet on midday and then i go and look at the racing post and
their lay of the day is midday so ive ended up laying rather than backing it.
Theyre saying the ground and the fact that its a stronger renewal
this time around as their reasons for laying it

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

that caught my eye also when lads were biggest as i was planning to have
a decent bet on midday and then i go and look at the racing post and
their lay of the day is midday so ive ended up laying rather than backing it.
Theyre saying the ground and the fact that its a stronger renewal
this time around as their reasons for laying it

they got it right but only just and they saved me a packet
midday looked unlucky though

shaggykev

shaggykev wrote: »

I like the look of Precision Break & Midday but I'm starting to get put off for two points

one: Everyone else seems to fancy Precision Break aswell, tipped up in racing post


two: Ladbrokes seems to be out to get Midday, went 6/4 this morning and now stan james/betpack have her 6/4 for the next hour. Why so big

They must fancy her not to act on the really firm ground and expect her to jar on it

I'm always pessimistic when ladbrokes go really big on a horse

God ladbrokes are good, anytime they go big, it gets beat, had a fecking awful passage

mailburner

shaggykev wrote: »

God ladbrokes are good, anytime they go big, it gets beat, had a fecking awful passage

the magic sign got it right again
it always makes me sit up and notice
got a horrible run through alright though

shaggykev

they are going top price the big three today

zenyatta/goldikova/workforce

I can see Goldikova getting beat alright, Workforce wont suit the track either but might win as the field looks compeletly inferior to him and Zenyatta again its only the surface that can beat her as she's well clear of these horses on ratings

Hoki

Its not often i back horses but iv seen so many videos of Zenyatta put up on facebook over the last 24 hours that iv gone & stuck a score on him @ 2/1!

Goldcupfav

Master Of Hounds
Boys At Toscono
Proviso

5 ew treble pays around 1100 if they all win. All get placed pays 60 ish.
Get on !!

OutlawPete

Just seen this thread today after starting the webcam threa.

Had Midday last night .. thought he had it

On Uncle Mo tonight in the 7.55.

mailburner

have bekhabad and uncle mo done at 11/4+5/2 though
a massive rule 4 in the first one

Gavin "shels"

Paco Boy and Beethoven for me in the 8.40.

mailburner

bloody hell

that was easy

OutlawPete

EASY!!!!

Go on the Uncle MOoooooooooooooooo!!

5/2 with Hills ..

x PyRo

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

OutlawPete

Small bet on Paco Boy there, left it too late.

Win for Ireland though

Fav backers are doing well too.

mailburner

goldi is the real superstar tonight no matter what happens
i don't think ive ever lost a cent on her.

ive a nice sweat now on bekhabad and im struggling to find one
to beat it in all fairness especially without workforce there and
i think it looks to be in a different class to the rest of that field

Nulty

Debussy (6/1) & Zenyatta (2/1) double for interest 20/1

savers on Al Khali (13/2) and Musket Man ew (25/1)...desperate to get a winner in the BC

argosy2006

good luck nutly, Zen for me

mailburner

seriously disappointing run by bekhabad

Nulty

(x 1,000,000)

Better off putting a flame to my money

argosy2006

i have dangerous Midge and Zen in a double,

ft9

Small bet of 5quid on Looking At Lucy, random selection for the crack, know nothing about any of the horses hence such a small stake.

Nulty

Happy for Meehan. I'm a big fan of his.

EDIT:
Also Martin Dwyer deserves a mention of course. Mixed emotions I'm sure

argosy2006

ft9 wrote: »

Small bet of 5quid on Looking At Lucy, random selection for the crack, know nothing about any of the horses hence such a small stake.

http://tipsterform.com/breeders-cup-pricewise/ this guy is due a win, and had Looking at Lucy,

mailburner

argosy2006 wrote: »

http://tipsterform.com/breeders-cup-pricewise/ this guy is due a win, and had Looking at Lucy,

he makes me look very good
hope nobody is following his picks

mailburner

not sure what to think of this race

i dont know the opposition and zenyatta didnt look great
winning her last race

either way i cant lose on her thanks to pp

ft9

Who won?

Nulty

Oh dear!

What an effort though. Such a big field aswell.

argosy2006

wtf , so far back, yet flyings up,, but jockey at fault, really trying to be to clever, should have been few lengths closer going into turn,

mailburner

blame beat a fast finishing zenyatta


what a shame though
not sure about the tactics...given an awful lot to do.
itll be talked about for some time

Kod-box

Race of her career and finishes 2nd

Nulty

Zenyatta falls to Blame in incredible Classic
By Racing Post staff 10:48PM 6 NOV 2010

Report: USA, Saturday

Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) 1m2f, 3yo+

ZENYATTA came within a whisker of making history under the famous spires of Churchill Downs, laying down one of the most incredible runs in Breeders' Cup history to make up roughly 20 lengths but ultimately fail to get the better of Blame by the tiniest of margins.

Zenyatta's legions of fans were left chewing their fingernails as jockey Mike Smith allowed the field to steal 15 lengths on his mount within the opening furlong.

Running down the back straight the amazing mare, who had gone 19 races undefeated before this race, was over 20 lengths behind the leaders.

She had not passed a single horse as they swung into the final turn but with thefield bunching and Zenyatta suddenly looming, memories of last year's Classic at Santa Anita and her dramatic late lunge began swirling about the grandstand.

Smith opted not to navigate the crowded field and steered out towards the stands' side, where Zenyatta finally got going and swept past one rival after another.

It came down to a desperate drive to the winning line. Blame, out in front, and Zenyatta, eating up the yards with a ferocious appetite. But the post came too soon for Zenyatta and her fans. Blame held out, Zenyatta's unbeaten record was in tatters, but the worldwide audience that gathered to watch this remarkable mare were left with the memory of one of the all-time great Breeders' Cup races.

More to follow...

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/breeders-cup-zenyatta-just-fails-to-catch-blame-in-classic/786633/top/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Et15M6wsPo

mailburner

i had to laugh at the winning jockey trying to get the crowd going
after his win.
Nobody wanted to know and i guess they'll
all Blame smith now for that debacle

not sure if that was showboating or what...
maybe he thought she was still going to get
there and he fairly beat the bejaysus out of
her in the home straight

Kod-box

Gotta love horse racing

TheMilkyPirate

"In all my years watching racing i have never been so sickened, Mike smith what the f*ck were you thinking? 25 lengths off the pace 2 lengths off the rail looking like she was going to be pulled up then beats the poor mare into submission up the home straight what a disgraceful ride. Sickened absolutely sickened. Poor zenyatta. Should have won easy.

But the banker of the meeting and the greatest race mare ever stepped up to the plate well done goldikova a true champ."

My feelings copied from pyros thread, Just looking at the replay again. Jesus christ mike.

Nulty

Kod-box wrote: »

Gotta love horse racing

Couldn't agree more. I wish I'd discovered it sooner. It is, in the truest sense of the word, epic.

(Not like typical f*ckers use the word)

x PyRo

Everyone keeps saying "that's racing" and all that bollocks.

That's not racing, that is pure stupidity from a stupid man who think he's on some sort of jet aeroplane. I feel sorry for the horse, she could of won that by a country mile with a proper ride. Who holds a horse 10 t0 15 lengths behind the second last horse, then tries to go up the rail like some sort of daredevil biker when she clearly needed to go on the outside to get a run, which he later does after costing himself a few lengths. What in the hell was he at?

I didn't even have a penny on her, so I'm not talking through my pocket. I'm just amazed at the stupidity of people at times, absolutely amazed.

TheMilkyPirate

I just want to clarify that i'm not talking out of my pocket either i backed lookin at lucky and blame (small stakes) for the interest but i'd give all the money up to see zen go past the post first.

mailburner

x PyRo wrote: »

Everyone keeps saying "that's racing" and all that bollocks.

That's not racing, that is pure stupidity from a stupid man who think he's on some sort of jet aeroplane. I feel sorry for the horse, she could of won that by a country mile with a proper ride. Who holds a horse 10 t0 15 lengths behind the second last horse, then tries to go up the rail like some sort of daredevil biker when she clearly needed to go on the outside to get a run, which he later does after costing himself a few lengths. What in the hell was he at?

I didn't even have a penny on her, so I'm not talking through my pocket. I'm just amazed at the stupidity of people at times, absolutely amazed.

the clown certainly rode the horse like she was a jet plane thinking
she couldn't possibly get beat and im very bitter having got 7/2 on
her last sunday with pp even though i still made a small profit on it.
It was very painful to watch

Nulty

From what I've heard Pyro, Mike Smith has said she wasn't picking up at all at the break. It's not like he took a pull to get her back that far. She was over overwhelmed/distracted from the sounds of things. I think Smith was at fault for not shaking her up early enough but thats hindsight. That is horse racing. People make mistakes sometimes. Mike Smith has admitted he made a mistake...exactly what mistake he is referring to is yet to be clarified but he is taking responsibility. He certainly wasn't trying to make it look great.

From the quotes I've heard bandied around heres a few

"It wasn't her fault it was mine."

According to Lane Gold of the New York Times, Mike Smith said "She had too much to do. I believe I had the best horse. If I had to blame anyone, it would be me."

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/510835-breeders-cup-2010-lebron-james-calvin-borel-fight-and-todays-top-sports-news/entry/26779-zenyatta-breeders-cup-2010-mike-smith-takes-blame-for-loss-in-tears-after-race

“I couldn’t get her going the first part; the dirt was hitting her and she was a bit overwhelmed by it in the beginning,” Smith said. “She finally leveled off and started taking me.”

“It hurts more than I can explain just because it was my fault,” Smith said, before breaking down in tears in the interview room. “She should have won.”

“I had to tap on the brakes when Quality Road came back on me so quick; that cost me at least a good jump,” Smith said. “I just know she was the best horse. I hate to go out this way, that’s all.”

“I think she ranks up there with the greatest of all time,” Smith said. “If I had won this you could arguably have said she was. To come up a [head] short is just too hard, it’s hard.”

http://www.drf.com/news/smith-feels-pain-zenyattas-loss

OutlawPete

x PyRo wrote: »

Everyone keeps saying "that's racing" and all that bollocks.

That's not racing, that is pure stupidity from a stupid man who think he's on some sort of jet aeroplane. I feel sorry for the horse, she could of won that by a country mile with a proper ride. Who holds a horse 10 t0 15 lengths behind the second last horse, then tries to go up the rail like some sort of daredevil biker when she clearly needed to go on the outside to get a run, which he later does after costing himself a few lengths. What in the hell was he at?

I didn't even have a penny on her, so I'm not talking through my pocket. I'm just amazed at the stupidity of people at times, absolutely amazed.

Couldn't agree more and if I didn't know any better, I would have said Spencer was on that.

However, in UK and Irish racing, you have an excuse for a run like that and can put it all down to holding the horse up and the horse really wanting ground with more cut and the other usual bollox we regularly hear.

However, in the states, thankfully - you can't get away with that.

They train horses to run at very specific times and the jockey knows precisely what time he should be hitting at each furlong pole - that run was a disgrace.

You could call it showboating, but sure he knows that to clock a time anywhere close to the track standard, he needs to be just off the pace, unless the field are going to fast that is, which they clearly weren't.

As X said, you have to feel for the horse and the owners, she clearly had the optimal preparation.

Be interesting to hear why he thought holding the horse that far off the pace was acceptable - only reason I can think of that would make sense, is that he thought the opposition were nothing special.

But, even that excuse falls flat when you see that five furlongs out, horses up front that went fast are now finding more and so the button surely needed to be pressed - yet he just sat motionless, until he came off the last bend that is.

He'll get slaughtered by the racing hacks over there, no doubt about it.

Nulty

I'm not gonna sleep for a while!

"It wasn't very good at all in the beginning," added Smith. "She got away a little slow, she got squeezed out of there. I was just having a rough time of it going underneath the wire the first time.

"She just wasn't levelling out like I wanted to - the combination of the dirt hitting her in the face was a lot of it. She wasn't used to that part - it took her a while to get used to it.

"It just left her too much to do," he added. "Maybe I should have done a few things different. She's just amazing - she made up a whole lot of ground - to only come up a nose short is a little hard to swallow.

"I just wish I would have been in the race a little earlier because I think the outcome would have certainly been different. I had to put the brakes on at the quarter pole when Quality Road started backing up. I think that cost me the race."

Zenyatta, though, really did lose little in a defeat that may even have embellished her reputation.

"You know, I believe she ranks up there with the greatest of all time," said Smith. "If I'd have won this,you could arguably say she was. To come up a nose short is just - it's too hard."

Trainer John Shirreffs was gracious in defeat. "I'm just so happy with everything she's done," he said. "She ran her heart out today. She ran a great race - congratulations to Blame. What are you gonna do?"

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/breeders-cup-lookin-at-lucky-zenyatta-fails-to-catch-blame-in-classic-thriller/786633/top/

Nulty

OutlawPete wrote: »

Couldn't agree and if I didn't know any better, I would have said Spencer was on that.

However, in UK and Irish racing, you have an excuse for a run like that and can put it all down to holding the horse up and the horse really wanting a ground with more cut and the usual bollox ..

However, in the states - thankfully - you can't get away with that.

They train horses to run a very specific times and the jokey knows what time he should be hitting each furlong pole - that run was a disgrace.

You could call it showboating but sure he knows that to clock a time close to the track standard, he needs to be just off the pace, unless the field are going to fast that is, which they clearly were not.

As X said, you have to feel for the horse and the owners, he clearly had the optimal preparation.

Be interesting to hear why he thought holding the horse that far off the pace was acceptable - only reason I can think of that would make sense, is that he thought the opposition were nothing special.

But, even that excuse falls flat when you see that five furlongs out, horses up front that went fast are finding more and so the button needs to be pressed - yet he said motionless until he came off the last bend.

He'll get slaughter by the racing hacks over there.

I'm not insinuating anything here Pete but how much American racing do you watch?

OutlawPete

Nulty wrote: »

I'm not insinuating anything here Pete but how much American racing do you watch?

Quite a bit, why?

Beyer On Speed is my Bible, has been for many many years

OutlawPete

Feel bad for the guy, he knows he fcuked up ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyO3tuwRAIc

Nulty

OutlawPete wrote: »

Couldn't agree more and if I didn't know any better, I would have said Spencer was on that.

However, in UK and Irish racing, you have an excuse for a run like that and can put it all down to holding the horse up and the horse really wanting ground with more cut and the other usual bollox we regularly hear.


However, in the states, thankfully - you can't get away with that.

Well surely you saw there was a speed duel up front from the start which ensured at least a solid pace. There was no speed bias on the track - it was a fair track.

OutlawPete wrote: »

They train horses to run at very specific times and the jockey knows precisely what time he should be hitting at each furlong pole - that run was a disgrace.

How could Smith know the pace they were setting from where he was anyway? He had to get the mare interested before thinking about the race anyhow.

OutlawPete wrote: »

You could call it showboating, but sure he knows that to clock a time anywhere close to the track standard, he needs to be just off the pace, unless the field are going to fast that is, which they clearly weren't.

The four that set the fractions finished 8th, 10th, 11th and 12th. The 9th was the roughy at 64/1. They went a decent pace alright. And if anything we all know about horses that have necessary run styles and what Zenyattas is. Yesterday we saw that the rail was slow so her manoeuvre out wide was advantageous.

OutlawPete wrote: »

As X said, you have to feel for the horse and the owners, she clearly had the optimal preparation.

Be interesting to hear why he thought holding the horse that far off the pace was acceptable - only reason I can think of that would make sense, is that he thought the opposition were nothing special.

But, even that excuse falls flat when you see that five furlongs out, horses up front that went fast are now finding more and so the button surely needed to be pressed - yet he just sat motionless, until he came off the last bend that is.

I seriously doubt he thought the field was nothing special. From reports, she just didn't fire at the break and he let her find her rhythm. He scrubbed her up in the back straight and when he was in touch he guided her round the bend.

OutlawPete wrote: »

He'll get slaughtered by the racing hacks over there, no doubt about it.

After the dust has settled I don't think any one expects that anything they say is going to say more than Smith said in the post race press conference.

Nulty

Movie material?

:pac:

I'll take even money theres already a script written!

OutlawPete

Nulty wrote: »

Well surely you saw there was a speed duel up front from the start which ensured at least a solid pace.

Of couse, that is my point .. he gave away far too many lengths at the start.

Nulty wrote: »

There was no speed bias on the track - it was a fair track.

Never said nor implied there was one.

Nulty wrote: »

How could Smith know the pace they were setting from where he was anyway?

You must be joking man, come on ..

He is a pro jockey for well over twenty years, running on tracks that do not alter anywhere near the way they do on this side of the pond.

When horses go to fast for a distance, jockeys know it - when they go to slow and pace needs to be injected, they know it.

Do you think Smith was sitting that far off the pace because he thought they were going too fast?

He knows they were not and if he felt that, he would have said it.

Nulty wrote: »

The four that set the fractions finished 8th, 10th, 11th and 12th. The 9th was the roughy at 64/1. They went a decent pace alright. And if anything we all know about horses that have necessary run styles and what Zenyattas is. Yesterday we saw that the rail was slow so her manoeuvre out wide was advantageous.

With respect, you are totally missing the point.

Nobody is saying that he should have SET the pace, the issue is with him sitting sooooo far off it and only asking the horse for an effort coming off the last bend, that is crazy.

Nulty wrote: »

From reports, she just didn't fire at the break and he let her find her rhythm. He scrubbed her up in the back straight and when he was in touch he guided her round the bend.

You buy that of you want, it's not true and it's his pride talking.

All that nonsense about a "wall of horses" and that he would have had to go wide and keep the horse there is baloney.

Many horses were closer to pace and did not go wide.

Nulty wrote: »

After the dust has settled I don't think any one expects that anything they say is going to say more than Smith said in the post race press conference.

They will dissect that race to within an inch of it's life.

It's the Breeders and his excuses will be picked apart.

I feel bad for the guy, I can see he is heart broken, but he made errors - simple as that.

Nulty

*But if theres a good pace then theres less of a need to be up close to the pace like you said he should have been.

*I know you never said that, I'm saying it because its relevant to where you should sit in relation to the pace - or rather where you can get away with sitting.

*From where he was out the back I imagine it was hard to know the pace. If he was riding the pace sure but he was out the back trying to get his horse moving. Or at least wondering why she wasn't.

*My missing the point is in direct response to your comment about him beong "up with the pace". That means on the pace. Zenyatta has never (to my knowledge) been anywhere near the pace in any of her races. Shes hold up. i.e. off the pace not up with it.

*My buying has nothing to do with it. I said "From reports,". I'm simply arguing a point. Whats nonesense about "Wall of horses". that wall of horses were the four that I meantioned in my other post that finished in the back three. Including Quality Road which Smith mentions.

*They will dissect it, just like we are right now. And its dissection will never end.