IMF - intervention inevitable

ei.sdraob

Some people think that because we dont have to go to the markets to borrow again until 2011 everything be hunky dory, but:

* the likes of Anglo have over 30 billion in promissory notes, they can come knocking on the door at any time asking for all or some of this in shiny cash

if this happens then it could be the event that completely topples us over and forces us into the market looking for more money sooner than expected


something to think about....

murphaph

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I'm not going to claim I know how to solve this problem, but WTF @ people calling for thousands of public sector workers to lose their jobs.

They'll go straight from being paid by the government in wages to being paid by the government in unemployment benefit. Oh yes, that's just what this country needs - MORE unemployment. MORE emigration.

There are things which need to be done in this country to solve our problems, sure. Firing more people and adding to an already disastrous live register tally is NOT one of them.

If there are 5000 people in the HSE doing nothing or at best sharing work that could be handled by the remaining staff, then of course it makes sense to take them off the payroll and make them redundant. If they end up on the dole (as is likely for many) it's still a net saving to the exchequer at no cost to service levels.

The dole and the PS is the same pot of money so a public servant who is surplus to requirements should absolutely be transfered onto the dole by way of redundancy. The dole itself will need serious cuts over the coming years. rewarding ourselves with some of the most generous unemployment benefits in Europe is simply not possible anymore. It will undoubtedly be tough for many and will force the hand of many to emigrate but the sums don't add up. Dole has to be cut and cut down to UK sort of levels which is miles away from what it is.

This is the economic reality of a country that has seriously blown it. The numbers are massive. We should see leadership from our politicians (TDs should be volunteering to take massive paycuts and should be forfeiting all but the state pension, but they won't of course) but even if we had some of this, it wouldn't make a dent in our financial hole: the defecit is much too big for that. Increased taxes and reduced tax reliefs are part of the solution but will come nowhere near closing the gap.

It will have to come from PS pay and SW payments.

Scarab80

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Some people think that because we dont have to go to the markets to borrow again until 2011 everything be hunky dory, but:

* the likes of Anglo have over 30 billion in promissory notes, they can come knocking on the door at any time asking for all or some of this in shiny cash

if this happens then it could be the event that completely topples us over and forces us into the market looking for more money sooner than expected


something to think about....

Where did you get that idea from?

The promissory notes are based on fixed payment drawdowns over 10 - 15 years, in fact in order to meet 10% deficit target by next year interest will now not be paid for the next 2 years - how Anglo then pay their creditors I have no idea.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-04/ireland-to-take-2-year-interest-holiday-on-bank-bailout-method.html

bryaner

murphaph wrote: »

If there are 5000 people in the HSE doing nothing or at best sharing work that could be handled by the remaining staff, then of course it makes sense to take them off the payroll and make them redundant. If they end up on the dole (as is likely for many) it's still a net saving to the exchequer at no cost to service levels.

The dole and the PS is the same pot of money so a public servant who is surplus to requirements should absolutely be transfered onto the dole by way of redundancy. The dole itself will need serious cuts over the coming years. rewarding ourselves with some of the most generous unemployment benefits in Europe is simply not possible anymore. It will undoubtedly be tough for many and will force the hand of many to emigrate but the sums don't add up. Dole has to be cut and cut down to UK sort of levels which is miles away from what it is.

This is the economic reality of a country that has seriously blown it. The numbers are massive. We should see leadership from our politicians (TDs should be volunteering to take massive paycuts and should be forfeiting all but the state pension, but they won't of course) but even if we had some of this, it wouldn't make a dent in our financial hole: the defecit is much too big for that. Increased taxes and reduced tax reliefs are part of the solution but will come nowhere near closing the gap.

It will have to come from PS pay and SW payments.

£60 a week would be pretty good here if the cost of living was the same.

Sandvich

Gus99 wrote: »

Unions used to have a noble objective in defending workers rights - but such a role has been pretty much replaced/made irrelevant by large amounts of employment legislation (primarily at an EU level). In recent times, it is more about trying to extract every penny possible in return for even the most common-sense reform in the workplace. If James Connolly could see the carry-on from the likes of Begg, McLoone, O'Connor and Doran, he would turn in his grave

There are still things you can't legislate or are difficult to legislate that you need unions for. You can't legislate for general unfairness or many forms of appearance based discrimination.

ei.sdraob

Scarab80 wrote: »

Where did you get that idea from?

The promissory notes are based on fixed payment drawdowns over 10 - 15 years, in fact in order to meet 10% deficit target by next year interest will now not be paid for the next 2 years - how Anglo then pay their creditors I have no idea.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-04/ireland-to-take-2-year-interest-holiday-on-bank-bailout-method.html

The original description of them when they were issued, it was only in the last few weeks that we learned that there is also interest to be paid of them of about 5%

Jaysoose

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

What people are calling for is the firing of public sector staff that are actually surplus to requirements, that means for example scores of middle managers in the HSE. They are also looking for Public service wages to be benchmarked again because that would correct the original benchmarking which is out of kilter. Public service wages went up due to the boom conditions just as house prices did; house prices are correcting but public sector wages aren't.

I'm only using this as inaccurate example but you know that we could actually have twice as many teachers as we do now if they were paid half of what they are but teachers feel they are worth the money they get paid. who determines that now unless it is their own opinion.

These are the same teachers that will sit on their hands when kids are being taught in delapitated pre-fabs but if their pay is even threatened they are on the streets and joe duffy quick as a flash.

This country of ours is going down the toilet quicker that usain bolt does 100mtrs. I for one will be leaving the country after the budget if property taxes etc come in as it simply will not be financially viable to stay and contribute to the third rate system we have at the minute.

pakalasa

Joining the Euro got us into this mess.
Is it not obvious that leaving the Euro will solve ALL problems.:rolleyes:

ei.sdraob

pakalasa wrote: »

Joining the Euro got us into this mess.

our culture, the people and the government caused this mess and made it worse

pakalasa wrote: »

Is it not obvious that leaving the Euro will solve ALL problems.:rolleyes:

and cause a whole string of larger problems

now a dual currency system with Public servants and Welfare being paid in Irish Pesos :P now thats something to think about ....

DiscoStu

ei.sdraob wrote: »

now a dual currency system with Public servants and Welfare being paid in Irish Pesos :P now thats something to think about ....

Damn son, I likes your thinking. Maybe we can use the old Zimbabwean dollar so at least the payment denominations don't need a change. Everyone keeps their millionaire status. That alone should offset the pain as the standard of living falls. No need to print our own either, there must be plenty of them lying around somewhere.

Amhran Nua

bleg wrote: »

Everything's fine so long as you don't talk down the economy. Lehman Brothers etc...

Ah yes, the tinkerbell school of economics; just close the eyes and wish really hard...

RichardAnd wrote: »

How this is acted upon is still the prerogative of the nation as the ever remain sovereign.

I think in most cases they do give a list of recommendations as to where and how to apply austerity.

ei.sdraob

DiscoStu wrote: »

Damn son, I likes your thinking. Maybe we can use the old Zimbabwean dollar so at least the payment denominations don't need a change. Everyone keeps their millionaire status. That alone should offset the pain as the standard of living falls. No need to print our own either, there must be plenty of them lying around somewhere.

i dont think Croke Park mentions anything about being paid in euros, so we can even give them a raise (in new punts of course) to rub salt on wound, and the rate could start at 1:1 and of course devalue like a rock

anyways its not really realistic since would need some of the state servants to implement such a system and of course once they get whiff of it there be war

oh damn feel so evil.

Tim Robbins

Dorcha wrote: »

The Labour Court is only there because of the Unions.

Yeah and children don't work up chimneys because of Unions too. Great. I acknowledges Unions had their place but the point I was making was they had gone way beyond their remit which originally was valid.

[COLOR]
Your belief in the benevolence of politicians is touching.[/COLOR]

I believe in Democracy. Unions are now only acting as a vested interest only interested in their members which is a subversion of democracy. They do this, otherwise their members wouldn't pay 10 euros a month. And if they don't have thousands of members paying 10 euros a month, they can't pay themselves 150K a year for essentially doing nothing other than moaning and trying to stop certain things which don't benefit their paying members happen.

They make it harder for policies for the common good because things have to be ok'd by them. But they only represent at most about 1 / 6 of society. I believe in the common good not vested interests.

jaycee13

Perhaps IMF intervention is now inevitable. The reports over the weekend that some Govt. TD's (FF) will not back the Budget if their own particular agendas are not met (not necessarily on OAP rate cuts) really does seem that the waifer thin majority of 2 in the Dail will not suffice. No budget passed equals an election and a deferred budget in January possibly. Do the parish pump politicaians on all sides not realise this? Our own Dail is going to deliver us into the hands of the IMF and compromise the sovereignity that so many generations worked so hard to achieve.

Inquitus

IMF intervention is now inevitable imo, I don't see us being able to borrow at an acceptable rate when we need to hit the bond markets in Q1 next year.

I would ask this, what are the negative knock on effects of having to dip into the EU/IMF fund? The IMF/EU are unlikely to want a huge amount more than the 6bn next year, and 15bn over 4 years that our Gov is currently proposing. We will however be able to avail of cheaper borrowing than we could otherwise which is of obvious benefit. The only negatives I have seen in the news is loss of credibility etc on the global stage, is that likely to translate into any real negative changes for the people of Ireland?