IMF - Big Bad Wolf?

Duck's hoop

There's a lot of talk, inescapable at the moment, about the IMF ''coming in'' to Ireland and doing unspeakable things to the country.

I'm just curious if anyone knows who they are, how do they ''come in'', what might we expect them to do?

I mean do they arrive in blacked out limos, helicopters, jets, men in black style?
Who lets them ''come in''?

Is it a crazy notion that IMF might be used as a bogey man to scare us stupid so we'll take any and all austerity measures in the coming budget just to keep the wolf from the door?

I remember talk like this in the mid eighties, it didn't happen then.

I'm not saying it won't happen but would like to see what the rational heads on After Hours think.

Morlar

My take on it is that they will look at our finances in terms of spreadsheets in clinical terms, the notion of cosy relationships with quangoes and unions and vested interests is not in their brief. They do not need to cling to power by their fingertips nor do they need to get re-elected. They will butcher the amounts paid in dole as they are among the highest on earth and we can not afford it - they will crucify the public sector too. Also private sector Paye workers will pay more tax etc etc

Duck's hoop

Seems reasonable to me.

Seaneh

It works this way.

Ireland owes "The World" €50.

Ireland only has €25, the IMF say, hey Ireland, we will give you the €25 you need so as to not default on your loan, but there are conditions. You have to drastically cut your spending in all areas, streamline government and abide by our rules until the loan is repaid to us.


That's the gist of it.

It would be hardship in the short term but IMHO, we'd nearly be better off for it, our public sector would actually be functional by the end of it and politicians wouldn't be paid insane wages and expenses anymore.

flyton5

The IMF are coming you say? :eek:

*hides*

coconut5

Morlar wrote: »

They will butcher the amounts paid in dole as they are among the highest on earth

I laughed at this comment, then I realised how true it is.

Morlar

Duck's hoop wrote: »

Seems reasonable to me.

I am starting to think that they are a necessary evil.

Denerick

A serious discussion on the economic fate of this country... on After Hours.

Seems to be the Irish way of doing things.

Morlar

Denerick wrote: »

A serious discussion on the economic fate of this country... on After Hours.

Seems to be the Irish way of doing things.

In fairness the 'economic fate of our country' is quite topical at the moment. And no you do not need to be an economist or to work in the financial sector before you can voice an opinion on this.

Denerick

Morlar wrote: »

In fairness the 'economic fate of our country' is quite topical at the moment. And no you do not need to be an economist or to work in the financial sector before you can voice an opinion on this.

I just think AH is a sewer and this thread is destined to end in some fetish like meme fúck.

th3 s1aught3r

we could all hide under a big pile of coats and hope it all sorts itself out

Duck's hoop

Morlar wrote: »

I am starting to think that they are a necessary evil.

Just might be a good idea alright. Bit like sending an spoiled, obese glutton off to a good old boot camp for a while.

Morlar

Denerick wrote: »

I just think AH is a sewer and this thread is destined to end in some fetish like meme fúck.

Well that would make you and I both sewer dwellers. I agree AH is often chronic ****e but not 100% of the time. Anyway it's no harm to occassionaly look at serious issues in a lighthearted less formal manner. It serves as a good counter balance to the more respectable less sewer-ey kinds of forums a couple of clicks away. Anyway IMF = Impossible Mission Fund.

** Also all the students are out getting bashed by the Gardaí today so it should be less meme-ey ish than normal.

bonerm

So in simplest terms we get our finances sorted out and the Dail gombeens lose their power? Sounds awful.

Wertz

Denerick wrote: »

I just think AH is a sewer and this thread is destined to end in some fetish like meme fúck.

You've been around 18 months and still drawn this conclussion? There's plenty of serious debate and chat in AH all the while intermingled with the bullsh*t, puns, jokes, flirting and whatever...it's all part of the charm.


As for the IMF...part of me dreads what it'll do to the country, part of me wants to see a line drawn under all the economic waste and mismanagement. The talk of it has been around since sep 08 but the last few months have seen it pop up all over the place...it's a bogeyman, sure...but it's not a fairytale either.

Coriolanus

I can't wait for them.
I used to think the best thing would be turning the keys over to Brussels but after the fiasco with the EU budget recently I've lost faith in them.
Bring in the accountants!

PeterIanStaker

Maybe the big bad wolf needs to take down a few of the white elephants that have roamed free too long - HSE, TD's expenses etc?

southsiderosie

Be careful what you wish for.

The IMF is going to force the government to severely cut public wages and services. In exchange, they may help the government restructure its debt. But it will not help individuals do so. This means that people are going to be stuck paying the 2005 prices for their homes, even though wages and spending are going to be cut back to mid-1990s levels. It is the only way that Ireland can both pay its debt and restore its competitiveness. But it is going to be absolutely brutal in the short-to-medium term.

derfderf

Denerick wrote: »

I just think AH is a sewer and this thread is destined to end in some fetish like meme fúck.

They climbing in your windows, snatching dole payments up?

thebigbiffo

there's no way the IMF will bail out ireland - mark my words.

now the ECB, different matter entirely...

Amhran Nua

Seaneh wrote: »

It works this way.

Ireland owes "The World" €50.

Ireland only has €25, the IMF say, hey Ireland, we will give you the €25 you need so as to not default on your loan, but there are conditions. You have to drastically cut your spending in all areas, streamline government and abide by our rules until the loan is repaid to us.


That's the gist of it.

Not exactly. Here's how it actually works:

Ireland needs €25 to pay the rent and put food on the table. But nobody will lend it to Ireland because Ireland always spends it on hookers and blow. So the IMF comes in and says right, change the way you run the show and we'll tell everyone else you're on the wagon. After Ireland cleans up its act, and passes inspection, the IMF loans Ireland €5 as a signal to the rest of the world that its alright to lend to Ireland again.

This analogy has been brought to you today by a decade of FF government.

OutlawPete

Duck's hoop wrote: »

There's a lot of talk, inescapable at the moment, about the IMF ''coming in'' to Ireland and doing unspeakable things to the country.

Ah nice one, I loved them when I was a kid.

The things, you say
Your purple prose just gives you away
The things, you say
You're unbelievable!!!

Lumen

PeterIanStaker wrote: »

Maybe the big bad wolf needs to take down a few of the white elephants that have roamed free too long - HSE, TD's expenses etc?

There's no way a wolf can take an elephant.

Steyr

A texter to Newstalk yesterday was saying that they did worse in Romania?? If you called in sick etc they deemed you fired from your job, cut dole to next to nothing, cut your salary to 30%, slashed their Govt's salarys.

Biggins

I would not like to the the IMF being called in.
It would possibly effect the Euro versus other currencies (and the side effects of that alone?), it might be a uncompromising "slash and burn" policy without further thought to consequences and also it would effect Ireland national/business reputation internationally seriously for decades to come.

Lumen

The bigger risk is if the Germans force us to raise corp tax. Then we're really fecked.

Morlar

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Not exactly. Here's how it actually works:

Ireland needs €25 to pay the rent and put food on the table. But nobody will lend it to Ireland because Ireland always spends it on hookers and blow. So the IMF comes in and says right, change the way you run the show and we'll tell everyone else you're on the wagon. After Ireland cleans up its act, and passes inspection, the IMF loans Ireland €5 as a signal to the rest of the world that its alright to lend to Ireland again.

This analogy has been brought to you today by a decade of FF government.

Where siptu are the hookers and blow is the public sector/ hse thats eerily accurate.

Duck's hoop

Morlar wrote: »

Where siptu are the hookers and blow is the public sector/ hse thats eerily accurate.

It's going against the grain but, isn't a public sector really indispensable in a properly functioning society. Police, nurses, local authorities even teachers are needed. And they need paying for doing a job surely?

Amhran Nua

Morlar wrote: »

Where siptu are the hookers and blow is the public sector/ hse thats eerily accurate.

The saddest thing about the whole situation is we don't need the IMF to tell us anything, its as plain as the nose on Cowen's face what we need to do. If it does reach the stage that they are called in, it'll really be an effort to pass the blame by whoever is in charge at the time.

Amhran Nua

Duck's hoop wrote: »

It's going against the grain but, isn't a public sector really indispensable in a properly functioning society. Police, nurses, local authorities even teachers are needed. And they need paying for doing a job surely?

The term "enormous middle management rump" is doing the rounds a lot these days.

Morlar

Biggins wrote: »

I would not like to the the IMF being called in.
It would possibly effect the Euro versus other currencies (and the side effects of that alone?), it might be a uncompromising "slash and burn" policy without further thought to consequences and also it would effect Ireland national/business reputation internationally seriously for decades to come.

Ireland's economic reputation is already adversely affected for years to come. That is a fact regardless of IMF intervention or not. It's arguable that the IMF would at least put an end to the the slow motion car crash we have all been in for the last few years.

I think they will slash and burn and some people and services will be adversely affected - but that's the situation we are in and the alternatives appear worse to me at this stage. FF /greens can not be trusted - we are years down the road and the hole is still getting bigger and bigger, they still have not tackled any of the core issues such as public sector, HSE, welfare burden nor have they come clean with exactly how screwed things really are. They are hoping to bluff their way out of it by getting lucky and no one in the intl community finds them remotely credible. That is my 'non-financial background' off the cuff take on it.

Biggins

Amhran Nua wrote: »

The saddest thing about the whole situation is we don't need the IMF to tell us anything, its as plain as the nose on Cowen's face what we need to do. If it does reach the stage that they are called in, it'll really be an effort to pass the blame by whoever is in charge at the time.

I agree what your saying but I don't think they would be passing the blame, just naming some of those that brought the mess about in the first place if they are by then, still in power!

Biggins

Morlar wrote: »

Ireland's economic reputation is already adversely affected for years to come. That is a fact regardless of IMF intervention or not. It's arguable that the IMF would at least put an end to the the slow motion car crash we have all been in for the last few years.

I think they will slash and burn and some people and services will be adversely affected - but that's the situation we are in and the alternatives appear worse to me at this stage. FF /greens can not be trusted - we are years down the road and the hole is still getting bigger and bigger, they still have not tackled any of the core issues such as public sector, HSE, welfare burden nor have they come clean with exactly how screwed things really are. They are hoping to bluff their way out of it by getting lucky and no one in the intl community finds them remotely credible. That is my 'non-financial background' off the cuff take on it.

I don't think is there is much there, if anything, I disagree with.

Sizzler

In summary, they will basically do the things the govt doesnt have the balls to do.

A footnote to this is Jack O'Connor & David Begg will be on the scratcher as well when their members realise their union isnt worth toss all.

Morlar

Biggins wrote: »

I don't think is there is much there, if anything, I disagree with.

I'd agree with you that every single shred of hardship caused by an imf intervention would be 100% the fault of the green party and fianna fail.

Duck's hoop

Amhran Nua wrote: »

The term "enormous middle management rump" is doing the rounds a lot these days.

For sure. Lot of fat to be trimmed. Only those at the bony end will no doubt be hurt the most.

Keith186

We should take the IMF money to sort us out then pay them back Cavan style.

Ill pay ya next week, no actually the one after that. Actually no the one after that. We'll probably pay ya back sometime, maybe.

That'll learn em!

Tigger

Lumen wrote: »

There's no way a wolf can take an elephant.

badass timberwolf could take a weak old fat elephant like the hse

southsiderosie

Ireland needs to do what Argentina did and find itself an international Sugar Daddy to buy its bad debt and give it cheap oil. Too bad the government was cozying up to Washington instead of Chavez. :pac:

cson

Ireland only needs a lend of €25? I'll lend it to them! :pac:

On topic and in all seriousness be careful what you wish for; I think we will need IMF/EU Rescue Fund intervention by February next year and it won't be pretty. You can delight in having Political salaries and PS Workers pay absolutely gutted but remember that it'll also result in some of the following;

Airport Metro - Gone. Along with anything resembling non essential capital expenditure.

Local Hospitals - Gone. Expect to see these close and everything relocated to the main regional centres. i.e. think Ennis and Nenagh hospitals gone and Limerick Regional picking up the slack.

Tax - Going up up up. Minimum wage earners would included in the tax bracket. Probably change tax bands to 25% and 50%

University Fees - In, in a big way. Expect them to dictate that each University or IT be self funding.

Those are just some of the not so desirable things that may happen.

bleg

It's game over already. It's not likely that the interest rates on our bonds will fall below 5% by the Spring time. The leadership of this country (all members of the Oireachtas) have shown themselves time and time again to be completely incompetent during good times and bad. Dept of Finance figures haven't been right in years. We have a barrister as Minister for Finance and a weak Government. These aren't really things that inspire confidence in an investor.

Put yourselves in their shoes, would you invest in Ireland's bonds? I definitely wouldn't.

The NTMA delayed us going to Europe/the IMF but the outcome is inevitable.

Coriolanus

cson wrote: »

Airport Metro - Gone. Along with anything resembling non essential capital expenditure.
Lets see if its gets done on time and under budget. Given Irelands past history in fúcking up capital projects like this (M50, luas, slash and burning the train network, Tara etc) maybe being forced to stop this would be a good thing.
Local Hospitals - Gone. Expect to see these close and everything relocated to the main regional centres. i.e. think Ennis and Nenagh hospitals gone and Limerick Regional picking up the slack.
Funny that, the Govt is already slashing services to prepare the way for closures under thier watch.
Tax - Going up up up. Minimum wage earners would included in the tax bracket. Probably change tax bands to 25% and 50%
Again, probably going to happen in the next five years anyway. Looking at the figures they're looking to cut, they're not going to find all the money they can just by dumping services. Taxes can and will go up.
University Fees - In, in a big way. Expect them to dictate that each University or IT be self funding.
Hai registration fees taking a massive spike in the last few years!
Those are just some of the not so desirable things that are happening already.

There we go.