Investec Derby 2011

Nulty

I don't think Frankel will win the Derby, Cecil is apprehensive, and his price is ridiculous. Obviously going to look else where. Recital was mentioned in the Irish Angle and having watched the race I reckon he could be a goer. Related to two Group winners including a full brother Prix Ganay winner Corre Caminos

He's entered at the Leopardtown on Sunday and a good pointer will be the 2nd in that maiden Giant Serapis who runs at 1:05 on the same day.

UrbanSea

How the hell did I not see Picture Editor til now?

UrbanSea

Have a look at this,very good read. Top 6 Derby Horses of All Time.

http://www.epsomderby.org/Greatest-Derby-horses.php


I love this quote about Sea the Stars.
''To expect a horse to excel from May to October usually involves a losing duel with reality but Sea The Stars grew stronger, fitter, better, like a creature from myth and legend.''

kincsem

greetings wrote: »

Have a look at this,very good read. Top 6 Derby Horses of All Time. of the last 30 years if you read the article.

I read it carefully.

kincsem

Sea-Bird was the best. He was the only classic winner I've seen who was eased before the line.

hucklebuck

kincsem wrote: »

Sea-Bird was the best. He was the only classic winner I've seen who was eased before the line.

Is that the only derby you have watched??

Sea The Stars was being eased down for a few strides just like Seabird.
Shergar was eased for the last half furlong/ furlong.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Uf0B02SXNs

UrbanSea

kincsem wrote: »

I read it carefully.

I did read the article,apologies for making a mistake,how dare I.

kincsem

I've watched the Derby for almost fifty years, mostly on television, but for about fifteen years I went to Epsom for the Oaks and Derby.

I've gone to The Curragh since the early 1970s and a season ticket holder from around 1990.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzXPXjUcOaA

Nulty

kincsem wrote: »

I've watched the Derby for almost fifty years, mostly on television, but for about fifteen years I went to Epsom for the Oaks and Derby.

I've gone to The Curragh since the early 1970s and a season ticket holder from around 1990.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzXPXjUcOaA

He wasn't eased, he was pulled up.

Any opinions on next years Derby? Bloody racing fans are so nostalgic! :pac:

kincsem

Next year I'm opposing Frankel in the 2000 and Derby.

UrbanSea

I'd oppose before I'd back anyway.

bit of a bogey

kincsem wrote: »

I've watched the Derby for almost fifty years, mostly on television, but for about fifteen years I went to Epsom for the Oaks and Derby.

I've gone to The Curragh since the early 1970s and a season ticket holder from around 1990.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzXPXjUcOaA

Cheers, Ive never seen this clip. Looked like something special especially considering the quality of the field in his arc win!

hucklebuck

Dunno how you can oppose him, he keeps proving himself and the form recently got well and truly Frankeled(sorry, couldn't resist!!)

UrbanSea

Still,5/4 is ridiculously short for the guineas months before it. And some nice unexposed types for the derby too,and if he doesn't progress over the winter he'd be opposable.

Nulty

kincsem wrote: »

Next year I'm opposing Frankel in the 2000 and Derby.

greetings wrote: »

I'd oppose before I'd back anyway.

Thats great....and what do you think will beat him?

UrbanSea

Dubai Prince.

kincsem

Nulty wrote: »

Thats great....and what do you think will beat him?

I haven't analysed the possibles yet. I usually do an English classics accumulator, trebles, doubles in March. Yet to collect but I had three winners from four on a win accumulator a few years ago: €20 almost €66k.

I'll post here when I place my bets.

Last year 13/04/10 (posted on another site)

Choices:
2000 Guineas: Canford Cliffs 5/1
1000 Guineas: Lady Of The Desert 16/1
Oaks: Hibaayeb 20/1
Derby: Joshua Tree 33/1

I later put €192 on Canford Cliffs at 12/1 for the 2000 Guineas (online Irish bookmaker limited the stake to €192).

Nulty

I figured we could get a bit of discussion on the matter rather than just posting names of horses

UrbanSea

greetings wrote: »

Dubai Prince.

Nulty wrote: »

I figured we could get a bit of discussion on the matter rather than just posting names of horses

Dubai Prince is a very unexposed horse who has had just two career starts. He was impressive in his maiden where he beat Seville,who later went on to finish second in the Dewhurst behind the very impressive Casemento,who,like Dubai Prince,ran in the Sheikh Mohammed colours this year and will run under the Godolphin banner next year. Then easily won a group 3 at the Leopardstown a few weeks ago over 7. Not a giant achievement,but Pat Smullen and Dermot Weld couldn't have rated this horse higher,and emphasized that he'll want a great deal more distance next year,and singled him out as a serious Derby horse,and I'd assume they'd know a good horse when they see it.

Nulty

I saw Dermot talking about the horse after the win at Leopardstown. He did well to hold back the tears . He knew he had a derby horse in his yard and it was taken away from him.

"It was an honour to train him in his two year old campaign"

or some such...must be hard to see him go alright.

Are you gonna back him Ante Post?

UrbanSea

Yes but I have roughly zero bean to my name at the minute.
I wish he wasn't going to Godolphin though. A great yard(for two year olds and older horses unfortunately)

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

I don't think Frankel will win the Derby, Cecil is apprehensive, and his price is ridiculous. Obviously going to look else where. Recital was mentioned in the Irish Angle and having watched the race I reckon he could be a goer. Related to two Group winners including a full brother Prix Ganay winner Corre Caminos

He's entered at the Leopardtown on Sunday and a good pointer will be the 2nd in that maiden Giant Serapis who runs at 1:05 on the same day.


<snip>

Very nice result in France for my Derby fancy Recital. Reports from RP say it was an easy victory for Recital in the Criterium de Saint Cloud. He's taking the exact steps that Fame and Glory took in his early career. Expect to see him in the Derrinstown and onto the Derby. No Sea The Stars next year *fingers crossed*

Nulty

Interesting to see how the market has developed over the winter.





Recital is entered in the Ballysax this weekend at Leopardstown along with Treasure Beach 3rd to Frankel in the Royal Lodge and a few others that wouldn't be involved in a Derby. Adilapour, beaten by Defining Year, is entered from Oxx's yard. Shelley Beach, beaten by Adilapour last day, was beaten today as a short priced favorite so form isn't looking great.

UrbanSea

Interesting money for World Domination,hasn't ran yet.

Nulty

Entered in the Dante (May 12th).

When was the last Derby winner to have had only 2 career starts?


But in the same season?

meriwether

UrbanSea wrote: »

Have a look at this,very good read. Top 6 Derby Horses of All Time.

http://www.epsomderby.org/Greatest-Derby-horses.php


I love this quote about Sea the Stars.
''To expect a horse to excel from May to October usually involves a losing duel with reality but Sea The Stars grew stronger, fitter, better, like a creature from myth and legend.''

If he truly was a champion, he'd have put it on the line against the flat horses in the Champion bumper in Cheltenham the following March.

UrbanSea

I would have thought he would have gone up against the geldings in the National.

Slattsy

Well lads, the first Derby trial this weekend.
By all accounts from Ballydoyle over the winter, Recital has been showing up well in his work.
Personally i cant see Frankel staying, just seems to have too much speed in my eyes. I know STS won the Guinneas too, but he had a pedigree laden with stamina.

Hard to call at this stage, Weld says his old boy Dubai Prince is one of his best he trained, but Godolphin win ruin him.

HigginsJ

Slattsy wrote: »

Well lads, the first Derby trial this weekend.
By all accounts from Ballydoyle over the winter, Recital has been showing up well in his work.
Personally i cant see Frankel staying, just seems to have too much speed in my eyes. I know STS won the Guinneas too, but he had a pedigree laden with stamina.

Hard to call at this stage, Weld says his old boy Dubai Prince is one of his best he trained, but Godolphin win ruin him.

:rolleyes: Spot-On. The form of his 2 wins to date are very strong. Be interesting to see if Al Zaarooni can do a better job with these Godolphin recruits than Ben Suroor has been doing.

UrbanSea

Must say I've been impressed by him. Nearly had a classic winner in his first season with Anna Salai.

mailburner

took 12s on recital an hour ago in a betpack office (muls in galw)
8s almost everywhere else
im hoping that will have shrunk considerably in an hours time

UrbanSea

12/1 widely available now.

kfallon

I presume Recital will be next seen in the Derrinstown?

Warper

Recital is available at 10-1 now but if he wins impressively tomorrow that will be cut in half as there dont look to be any superstars going for the Derby this year.

mailburner

long odds on for todays race now and like last time out there seems
to be plenty of money for it
at the current odds id be more inclined to lay it
that last run wasn't up to much but it can only improve
and who knows whether the horse is as good at three at all

Nulty

He'll win today. I'm looking at St Nics seasonal debut as inspiration for a marked improvement today. Also while Fame And Glory won and Nebula Storm is probably pretty decent, FAG didn't run to his mark. He's obviously not backable at 4/7 (was 5/4 opening yesterday) after his last race (defeat) but he ought to find the necessary improvement to take todays race.

Whether he's win the Derby will probably rely on a good bit of ease in the ground at Epsom. I have no evidence but I suspect he won't be fast enough for the Derby.

TheMilkyPirate

Have fancied recital for the derby since he won his maiden, Was V.Impressive in france and i wouldn't mind his defeat was first run back and ballydoyle are firing on all cylinders now.

Only regret is not getting my ante-post bet on was flush few days ago and should have done it then. Will be interesting to see which way his price goes if he wins today, Which i'm very confident he'll do.

Nulty

baraca wrote: »

Have fancied recital for the derby since he won his maiden, Was V.Impressive in france and i wouldn't mind his defeat was first run back and ballydoyle are firing on all cylinders now.

Only regret is not getting my ante-post bet on was flush few days ago and should have done it then. Will be interesting to see which way his price goes if he wins today, Which i'm very confident he'll do.

I've got him at 25s after his Navan win. Only Derby bet for me although I saw Carltons Houses debut too and he was impressive but I never thought to back him for the big one.

Slattsy

Cant see this horse winning any Derby, total pig of a yolk!
Seville seems to be the one.

Nulty

That horse gets greener (more awkward is probably more accurate) the more he runs. Ears pinned back throughout, hanging, head carriage, etc. He quickened well at the bend to go past Regent Street. I'm inclined to believe that he was out in front too long but a horse as dizzy as that does not inspire confidence going into a Derby. The run was needed if just to educate him more - he seems slow on the uptake but clearly has ability. Whether he has enough of it, and whether he will use it when its needed is open to question.

Warper

Recital has talent but to win at Epsom he needs to settle down. His head was all over the place today and looked like he might jump the railings at one stage yet he still won easily. Lot of work to be done by O'Brien before Epsom but looks like Fallon will ride him there and Fallon is the man you want for Epsom. Reminds me a bit of RVW. If he settles by Epsom, I think he will win.

Warper

Doubts about Fallon riding Recital in Derby as Dunlop wants him retained for Native Khan. Hope not

trebor28

anyone see the Dante today?
soumillion didnt really want to win did he??

jjll

trebor28 wrote: »

anyone see the Dante today?
soumillion didnt really want to win did he??

no je didnt even whip him and ride out when carlton went past he seemed to want to ease off

Denners.ie

trebor28 wrote: »

anyone see the Dante today?
soumillion didnt really want to win did he??

The horse probably needed a stronger pace, from what I saw he only eased off when Seville was beaten with 50 yards to go or so.

I'll watch it again now.

trebor28

think he only used the whip once inside he final furlong.
didnt seem to try to me!

Denners.ie

Ya he used it once and just waved it at him then.
I think he knew the horse was beaten and wasn't going to get properly stuck into him, which probably wouldn't have mattered as he needs a stronger pace than what he got anyway. Better horse won on the day.

I wouldn't back one of O'Briens horses anyway only in a very big race where I could be 100% sure they will actually try.

trebor28

lads have had bans for less!

Nulty

I'd still be backing Recital now. Seville can't live with Recital for speed on the gallops from the rumours I've heard.

Denners.ie

trebor28 wrote: »

lads have had bans for less!

For what?

He pushed the horse along the whole way, there is no requirement to use the whip. The horse is being prepped for the Derby, no point wearing into a horse that would probably have been beaten anyway.

I don't like what AOB does but don't really find much fault in todays run. Seville needs a strong pace if he is to win the Derby. He didn't get it today.

TheMilkyPirate

Seville travelled better than anything today and was only caught for turn of foot in the end imo. Be a different story at epsom not saying he will turn the tables but he has a lot bigger chance than people are giving him credit for.

6/4 Carlton house?? Are they having a laugh?

Poor derby imo and if it wasn't for breeding purposes frankel would be going for the derby.